QB Carousel 2021

TLDR; here’s your likely starting QB in 2021 [Kyle Terada / USA Today]

Despite it being a COVID cap year with a draft class that is loaded at the position, this off-season has seen more quarterback movement than any in recent memory. With so much of our fanbase clamoring for change at QB, and John Lynch himself admitting that—while Jimmy will be our starter in 2021—they’ll at least try and shore up the backup spot to insulate themselves from injury, I figured it would be a good time to take a look at the moves made this off-season, the prices that were paid to obtain new quarterbacks, and a few potential routes the Niners could go to add talent to the position group.

Market-Setters

Gangly -> Stocky [Getty Images]

As discussed ad nauseam, changes in rules and advances in offensive schemes have made the quarterback position more important than ever before and—unsurprisingly—the price tag that comes with obtaining a top-flight QB has mirrored that shift. If we’re excluding the draft—which we’ll get to later—there is no reliably cheap way of obtaining an above-replacement level quarterback in the NFL, and many teams have already learned that this spring.

Jared Goff to the Lions

Traded: Matthew Stafford
Received: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks

It’s hard to imagine Goff doing all that well in Detroit, whose sixty-year rebuild continues under the guidance of a new coach already internet famous for his likeness to The Dude and his cannibalistic introductory press conference. But while Dan Campbell’s track record is short enough that it’s hard to tell what will come of his tenure, it’ll be interesting to see what they do offensively. Seeing as he was the former tight ends coach for New Orleans and brought along one of their defensive assistants to become the DC, the clear hope is that the Lions become “The Saints Midwest,” but a quick passing game based on lightning-fast progressions isn’t exactly where Goff has excelled on the NFL level.

Realistically, this trade wasn’t about Goff though. Taking on a massive contract from a franchise who seemingly hates first-round picks was the only way the Lions could net two first rounders for their former prodigal son, and this move points even clearer to a rebuild. In terms of draft capital, this was absolutely as good as they could do. But in committing to an additional first-round pick they’ve also committed to locking up salary space that could be going to other foundational positions. His 2021 salary is fully guaranteed as of tomorrow, and cutting him would create massive cap hits of $43.5M in 2021 or $15.5M in 2022. Even if the Lions draft a quarterback in the top ten of this April’s draft, they’ll be paying Goff’s salary through 2022 at least—which could wind up meaning they’ll be doling out cash for two years of a lame duck quarterback.

Matthew Stafford to the Rams

Traded: Goff, 2021 third round-pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks
Received: Stafford

On the flip side is a Rams team that’s going all-in on chasing their current championship window. I’m a Stafford fan, and the fact that the Rams were ditching Goff’s contract in this trade made compensation nearly impossible to predict, but this seemed like an overpay. However, if Stafford actually puts the Rams over the top, the price will obviously be worth it. While on paper they now seem comparable to the Bucs as the team-to-beat in the NFC, a few legitimate questions remain.

First off, can they repeat their defensive success from 2020? In the NFL, elite-level defense is much harder to replicate year-to-year than offense, and the Rams have lost both their whiz kid DC to the team across town and their unoriginally-named-but-underrated safety John Johnson to the Browns this off-season. Secondly, there was always a lazy narrative that any time the Rams offense did poorly it was Goff’s fault and any successes were because of McVay. With Stafford in the fold, it’ll be tough for McVay to continue skirting the criticism that has mostly been heaped on his former quarterback the past four years. I’ve regularly stated that I believe the Rams’ more-simplistic version of our offense gives it a solid floor but limits their high-end against strong defenses, especially those who have time to prepare. Perhaps Stafford will allow them to break through that ceiling. Perhaps it’s just the deal that they’re comfortable with, hoping instead to win on the back of a more balanced squad.

Carson Wentz to the Colts

Traded: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 conditional second-round pick (likely first-rounder)
Received: Wentz

I’d also consider this an overpay, in part because of how little leverage the Eagles possessed. Despite making a head coaching change in part with hopes of salvaging Wentz’s Eagles tenure, it was made abundantly clear early-on in this offseason that the former signal-caller still wanted out. With that information out in the open and Wentz’s contract bonus schedule including $59M(!) in dead cap money if the Eagles couldn’t move him by tomorrow (March 19th) but wanted to let him go, they should have had little-to-no bargaining power in trade negotiations. Sure, the Eagles could have dug in and refused to move Wentz, but with one of the worst cap situations in the league and Wentz holding nearly $35M in cap space, the Eagles never would have risked gutting their team to keep a player who didn’t want to be there and who could sit out the season and just demand a trade again the year after.

There’s also the incestual coaching connections that make this an even weirder deal. The Colts’ former OC just went to the Eagles in hopes of retaining Wentz with the exact same scheme that the Colts run, but now the Eagles are willing to part with Wentz? Sure, as discussed above, he was demanding a trade, but… you have to get at least a sense that you’re buying rotten goods here. Wentz is leaving a system to go to the same system and the Colts are trading with a guy who knows their team just as well as they do. It’s all a little weird. 

All that said, while the compensation was too much in my mind, I actually think this is the best fit for both Wentz and the Colts—who are ripe with cap money and teetering on the edge of true contender status. If anyone can salvage Wentz its Frank Reich, who has done a marvelous job with quarterbacks since taking over in Indy and was the primary coach behind Wentz’s near-MVP season. If you’re the Colts you can tell yourself that Wentz can become that same player and that he’s the missing piece that they’ve been looking for while overlooking the fact that his MVP season included a lot of unrepeatable off-schedule metrics, that he’s clearly digressed since then, and that the Eagles as a team always played much better and harder when anyone else was under center. The fit is great, the player-coach combo does have a real shot, but I wouldn’t have parted with more than a second-rounder for Wentz given the circumstances.

Dak Prescott re-signed with Cowboys

Traded: Cap space
Received: Jerry Jones’ bragging rights

The Cowboys’ injured signal-caller signed a four-year $160M deal with a league-record $95M guaranteed at-signing. Needless to say, the sticker shock’s pretty unreal here, especially for a quarterback coming off a major leg injury. While I’m not sure Dak is a truly elite quarterback, he was playing the best ball of his life (other than turnovers) in the first four games of the season and the Cowboys’ offense fell-off dramatically once he was injured. Some knock him for failing to win more games, but we’ve heard that before with (checks notes) literally every single Cowboys quarterback since Troy Aikman. Despite the tremendous amount of talent on offense, winning big with the Cowboys has proven to be very difficult over the past two decades and I’m not sure that equating Prescott with that losing is any fairer than doing the same with Stafford and the Lions. Ultimately, the Cowboys gonna Cowboys until further notice.

Dak seems like a good dude and a strong locker room presence on a team that likely needs one. I’m probably higher on him than most, but would I pay this much money for his services? Absolutely not, especially since he’s a mobile player coming off a gruesome leg injury. But the longer this contract saga went on, the more a big-ass deal became apparent. This was a Jerry Jones special. At some point, the narrative around their negotiations became a personal challenge of contract chicken and a threat to Jones’ perceived image of himself as someone who treats his players right. The best way to get the super rich—especially those like Jerry Jones—to do exactly what you want them to do is to say that they won’t do exactly that. It was almost comical how clearly and cleanly that unfolded here. Good for Dak for getting paid.

Trade Candidates

Watson, every time he hears Cal McNair talk

If we’re giving up genuine draft capital for a veteran signal-caller, I would hope it’s for someone who we believe is our starter as soon as this year. I won’t spend a lot of time on this category because none of the options seem all that likely (but we can sure as hell hope for one of them in particular to come to fruition). 

Teddy Bridgewater: We apparently kicked the tires here, but not sure where this gets us. I don’t actually think Bridgewater is better than Jimmy G and—despite playing all of last season—he’s just as injury-prone. The idea of giving up draft capital for him is questionable at best.

Sam Darnold: I don’t hate Darnold and think he could be in line for the patented post-Adam Gase leap, wherever he winds up. That said, there are two major red flags to acquiring him: (A) he’s just been poorly coached for too long and has too many bad habits to fix at this point or (B) he’s not yet beyond repair but that’s in part because he’s missed so many games due to injury that he hasn’t had the playing time to cement those issues. Obviously, if either (or both) of those red flags prove legitimate, obtaining Darnold would be a terrible move despite his mobility, improvisational skills, and youth (23). 

It’s also worth noting that—although Darnold is very young—the idea of saving on a “rookie contract” depreciates greatly over time. People like to pretend like we’d still be saving a ton of money rolling out Darnold instead of Jimmy G, but the money we’d save would be minimal. In 2021, the Jets will absorb his signing bonus so he’d cost a meager $4.7M against the cap, but in 2022—his fifth-year option year—he’d cost $18.9M, and after that he is either a big enough upgrade that we dime him out or things didn’t work out and we gave up draft capital. 

There’d also be some Carson Wentz-Colts vibes that would make this a bit tricky. If the Jets staff—who have largely come over from the Niners and that includes our former passing game coordinator—gets a close look at Darnold but don’t like him as a fit, then why should we? In a world where we’re much more desperate and Jimmy G was NOT returning in 2021, I’d be more interested in a trade for the potential of Darnold. But in this world, where Darnold would come over as a backup tasked with winning the job this year or walking/becoming the NFL’s most expensive backup (other than Nick Foles) in 2022, it’s hard to come to a compensation amount that would seem intriguing for both parties.

Russell Wilson: Not happening. Even if he gets traded there’s no way it’s in-division.

Deshaun Watson: Clearly the best candidate on the board, there has arguably never been a quarterback this young, proven, and talented who has been available for trade. And to this point that remains true because the Texans have—at least publicly—nixed any and all thought of trading their franchise quarterback. 

Deshaun has teased us with social media movements and—most recently—leaked reports that his desired destination is either the 49ers or Broncos. While a move will seem unlikely until it actually happens, there are a few factors that give Watson some leverage here. He’s young and well-compensated enough that he can afford to sit out this season if he wishes, the amount of punishment he’s taken throughout the years could actually help lengthen his career with time off, and the trade clause in his contract means that he won’t be going anywhere he doesn’t want to. If shit were to truly hit the fan and Houston’s recent missteps and longstanding record of old white dudes being old white dudes has led Watson to force their hand into a trade, a move could happen anytime between the days leading up to the draft and after the 2021 season. Or, it might not happen at all.

For now, we can only dream.

UPDATE: And now there are multiple lawsuits pending against Watson, so… 😬

Veteran Backups

Not gonna happen but at least I get to post this photo [Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP Photo]

There is almost zero chance we don’t make a change at the backup position this off-season and John Lynch has basically said as much publicly. We could draft someone high to sit for a year, draft someone lower to sit for (at least) a year, and/or pickup a veteran backup option. We’ve all seen how we falter with sketchy play behind center and how even replacement-level QB play can make a drastic difference (and almost certainly would have gotten us into the playoffs this year despite all the other injuries). 

While we can always add one on the cheap later, if the Niners DO NOT add a veteran backup entering the draft that’s as clear a sign as any that their plan A would be to address the position with a rookie. But if the Niners DO add a veteran QB, I don’t think that shuts the door on them drafting another QB anyways. Many backup QBs get brought in on short-term deals, and unless we’re planning to trade up for a guy who can play significant snaps right away, having a veteran backup in addition to a rookie would provide injury assurance if Jimmy were to go down, add another veteran voice in the QB room to help a rookie, and give the Niners flexibility on taking a “redshirt” quarterback come April. Plus, the Niners like to roster three quarterbacks and make one inactive on gamedays anyways.

NOTE: These names have been flying off the shelves, so almost all of them are no longer available. Regardless, I’ll provide my takes below. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: SIGNED WITH RACIAL SLURS. Fitzmagic is a clear stop-gap/bridge/mentor type for a younger quarterback who still has the juice to start a few games if need be. If we were all-in on drafting someone (like the Slurs clearly are) then this pickup would work nicely, but with a veteran quarterback on roster who would start over him, the pairing doesn’t make a ton of sense for a dude who wants to start a few more games before he retires.

Alex Smith: While nostalgia looms, Smith wouldn’t be a great fit for many of the same reasons his replacement in Washington isn’t. While Smith is known as one of the best locker room presences and veteran tutors for rookie quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes’ dad has said the lessons his son learned under Smith as a rookie were invaluable to getting him to where he is now), Smith is likely looking for a starting position and not a locker room where he is a second or potentially third option.

Jameis Winston: No.

Mitchell Trubisky: This is a name that’s only been floated around recently and the fit is interesting. As easy as it’s been to poke holes in Trubisky’s game over his first four years in the league, he finished last year (sort of) strong after an early-season benching and certainly has physical tools. Do I think he’s a long-term starter in this league who has just started turning the corner? No, not really. Would I take him on a moderately-priced backup deal? Sure, why not. But the price tag of those two roles varies dramatically and where he believes he falls on that spectrum could write him off as a candidate before any legitimate talks.

Jacoby Brissett: SIGNED WITH DOLPHINS. Believe it or not, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy G both have the same number of career NFL starts (32) and bringing in Jimmy’s former backup would mean adding a smart, well-liked, and athletic quarterback who can more than hold his own in spot starts if needed. While he’s young and has more high-end potential than Fitzpatrick or Smith, I don’t really see Brissett as a long-term starter in this league, particularly in Shanahan’s offense. This is mainly because—despite playing for two very quarterback friendly offenses in the Patriots and the Colts—Brissett has never been particularly accurate, completing just under 60% of his throws in his career.

Brissett’s physical skillset may align better with a handful of rookie signal callers who we could target (Wilson/Lance/Fields), which makes the idea of signing him more intriguing, but that kind of roster move would make little sense. Next season, the Niners would surely rather start Jimmy G over a veteran or rookie in their first year in the offense, and even if the Niners were to shift to more mobile QB sets, they would have no idea who is available in the draft to fit that mold until after the initial free agency period—when Brissett will surely be signed.

Andy Dalton: SIGNED WITH BEARS (to start?). Probably the most likely of the candidates, Dalton should have more left in the tank than his first snaps with the Cowboys indicated. Once he got his sea legs under him, he was very much a lesser version of what he’s been for the majority of his career. As a guy who’s just old enough (33) and average enough to perhaps be settling into a sustained backup role, a Dalton signing would give a reliable veteran presence behind Jimmy G who could maintain that backup role (whether it’s behind Jimmy G or a younger player) for years to come.

Draft Options

Running over defenders and up draft boards

It’s rare that I’m all that interested in more than one or two quarterbacks in any given draft class. In fact, there was a four-year span in the mid-2010’s where I only liked one or two quarterbacks total. But this year seems like a potentially massive outlier. While I won’t pretend that all of these quarterbacks will be good or that they’ll all be drafted high, we could easily see five or even six signal callers taken in the first round. I’ll try to go in-depth on these guys later (as well as take a look at some potential later-round pickups), but until I can sit down and watch some film, here are my initial thoughts. 

Trevor Lawrence: He’s going #1. We’re not getting him and there’s not even a reason to talk about him.

Zach Wilson: I’m a big fan and am bummed that his stock seems to have skyrocketed since I made my interest in him public back in September. He’s got tremendous arm talent, makes plays off-script, throws from an absurd number of arm slots with ease and is said to be a hard worker who is diligent in the film room. While it seems like most people have him as the #2 QB in this draft, there’s still a chance I guess.

Justin Fields: Super productive player with high potential, but I have some concerns. He’s seems to be a really good team leader—which already separates him from former Buckeye Dwayne Haskins—but like Haskins, he plays in a scheme that runs very few concepts and throws to wide open five star wideouts. Fields’ legs may actually be more useful in the NFL—he’s bigger and faster than people think—and he showed great accuracy last year, but his arm talent is a notch below the rest of this tier and he hasn’t yet shown the ability to regularly process quickly and anticipate throws. That can often be a dealbreaker in the NFL.

Trey Lance: Basically a crypto stock, Lance will only be twenty at the time of the draft yet could have the best physical tools of any QB in this draft. However, his experience red flags are basically unheard of. He was insanely productive in just a single redshirt freshman year as a starting quarterback (his sophomore year was COVID canceled except for one game), winning every game he started, scoring 42 touchdowns and throwing zero picks despite hucking the ball down the field a lot, winning the D-1AA Heisman, and being named the MVP of the national championship. The downside? He didn’t play against a single D-1A opponent and has 17 career starts. At 6’4 225 pounds with an absolute cannon for an arm, a GPS-timed top speed comparable to many wideouts, and a reputation as a hard worker, he’s my favorite realistic target in this draft IF the Niners are impressed by him in the interview process. Do I understand the significant bust potential? Yes.

Mac Jones: Even with my reservations with Fields, I’d be totally cool with the Niners drafting any of the above names in the first round. I can’t say the same for Mac Jones. I’ve seen enough Bama quarterbacks to know not to jump on this hype train. While I like Jones more so than any former Tide QB not named Tua, the protection, supporting cast, and scheme he ran in college meant he was rarely pressured or tasked with NFL throws. For instance, in the national championship game I only saw one throw that stuck out based on its NFL traits—where Jones quickly went through his progressions to find an open man in the endzone on a shortened field—yet Jones threw for 464 yards and five scores in that game. There are some empty calories in those stats. I understand that Tom Brady and Joe Montana both came out of college without the best arm talent and have made themselves into first-ballot HOF’ers, but the physical traits alone would make me pass on Jones in the first round and I wouldn’t be shocked if his rising stock is more of a push from “draft pundits” than actual NFL personnel types. 

As for now—despite the clamoring of much social media—it’s still incredibly likely that the Niners starting quarterback in 2021 is Jimmy Garoppolo. If he can stay healthy, that’s something I am perfectly fine with. But if he can’t, we should have better options than we did last season.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Free Agency Bonanza 2021

All un-signed [Michael Zagaris / Getty Images]

With the NFL’s tampering period just a week away, it’s time to dust off the old blog and jump back into all things Niners. This is a fairly huge off-season for both the immediate future and the Niners’ status in the NFL. The injury woes of last year were truly unprecedented so most knowledgable fans should be willing to give the Niners a mulligan, but truly elite franchises don’t have many down years, and if the Niners want to cement themselves among the NFL’s best they need a rebound year in a big way. 

While the past two years have featured nearly identical rosters, this year will feature large-scale turnover. Given our cap space we should NOT be expected to be major players on the open market, but we have 38 free agents to make decisions on and an expected ten draft picks come April. While the majority of our core will remain in place, the Niners’ highly-lauded locker room dynamic will be put to its greatest test in 2021.

After our Super Bowl run in 2019 we all knew what Lynch/Shanahan had built. Now comes the test of whether or not they can maintain it.

COVID Cap

Amazingly enough, the NFL hasn’t actually settled on their 2021 salary cap yet (end-of-year calculations are ongoing), but they announced mid-February that the 2021 salary cap floor will be $180 million—$18M less than last year’s cap but $5M more than the worst-case projection entering the season. 

In terms of available cap space, the Niners are technically around the middle-of-the-pack—with Spotrac estimating we have about $27.7M to work with. That said, given our large number of free agents it would be more accurate to put us more in the bottom third/quarter in terms of usable cap space. We’re far from the Eagles—who even after cutting Wentz loose are currently $39M OVER the cap—or the Saints—whose all-in push during Drew Brees’ final years has them $59M OVER—but the purse strings will be tight. Thus, nearly the entirety of this writeup will be focused on our own free agents, NOT outside additions.

Big-Ass Extension Watch

There are mainstays like Laken Tomlinson who may get their contracts restructured to free up more cap space, but there’s only one player expected to get a massive extension this off-season: Fred Warner.

After flashing as a rookie with lots of promise, becoming a team leader and coverage dynamo as a sophomore, and putting the whole package together in his third year in the league, Warner was—by any and all metrics—one of the best linebackers in the country last season. He led the team in tackles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions, was an AP First-Team All-Pro selection and was PFF’s highest-graded off-ball linebacker by a pretty considerable margin.

Since he was a third-round pick in 2018, that means he has one more year on his rookie deal and is now capable of negotiating a big-time extension. As a vocal team leader who was as important as anyone holding the squad together during an injury-ravaged season, he has more than earned it.

At the moment, Warner is set to count $3.4M against the cap, a massive bargain that was made only slightly less egregious based on built-in rookie performance scaling (his 2020 cap was $844K). Like Kittle last year, Warner’s later round bargain-basement salary means it’s near impossible to save cap space in the short term but the deal will certainly be backloaded to account for the massive cap spike next year.

The highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the league are currently Bobby Wagner ($18M/yr), CJ Moseley ($17.5M), and Zach Cunningham ($14.5M/yr). The first two deals were signed in 2019, while Cunningham’s was signed last year. Since Warner won’t turn 25 until midway through next season and already has a First-Team All-Pro nod under his belt, his combination of youth and lack of weaknesses means we shouldn’t be expecting a discount. By the time next season starts, he will more than likely be the highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the NFL.

Potential Cuts

There are two big names rumored to be on the chopping block, so let’s get their names out of the way now. David Lombardi of the The Athletic wrote a great in-depth article about these very two and their salary ramifications, but I’ll try and keep it short here.

Since joining the Niners in 2018, Weston Richburg has played in 28 of 48 possible regular season games. In 2018—when he played 15 games—he was largely ineffective after an early season injury. In 2019, he started out well before going down in week 14. He hasn’t suited up since, missing the entirety of 2020 and leaving a gaping hole along the interior of the OL that we were regularly reminded of throughout the season.

When Richburg was signed, he was given one of the wealthiest deals for a center in league history, but the majority of his guarantees wrapped up last season. He’s currently looking at a $11.5M cap hit in 2021 and a $12.6M hit in 2022, but if we let him go we’d only be on the hook for $7M total—his initial signing bonus prorated over his last two years. So letting him go would result in $4.5M in cap savings.

The second likely cut is Dee Ford, who was electric playing a fraction of snaps last year and a major catalyst to our defensive success in 2019. While he entered the year supposedly healthier than ever, he was shelved for the season with a neck/back injury after only the first week—making his availability in 2021 highly questionable regardless of the Niners’ decision on whether or not to keep him. Ford has a $20.1M cap hit for this upcoming season, and $21.8M hits for the next two. If we cut him, we’d be on the hook for the rest of his signing bonus, thus taking a $14.4M hit and freeing up $7.8M in cap space. But there is one major caveat to that.

This is probably as good a time as ever to break the bad news on Ford’s contract. While his contract—like many that Paraag Marathe and the Niners structure—features team-friendly opt out seasons on the back end of the deal, there’s a very unfortunate catch. Despite Ford’s history of injury concerns, his contract has hefty injury guarantees built-in through 2021. 

In short, if Ford CAN pass a physical by April 1st, we can release him for generic non-injury reasons and save $7.8M off our cap. If he CANNOT pass a physical by April 1st, his injury guarantees kick in and we’re on the hook for an additional $11.8M in dead cap. Meaning, in that situation we’d actually be losing $5.9M in cap space by cutting him. While there is always the possibility—with either Richburg or Ford—to designate them as a post-June 1st cut and prorate the dead cap hit over two years, that’s just kicking the can down the road.

While there are lots of fans who have grown frustrated with Ford and would like to see him gone, he’s been highly effective when available. Depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft shakes out, the best route for Ford could be to restructure his contract. You obviously can’t take guaranteed money off of a contract or the cap—you can only move it around. But—if Ford is amenable—converting his injury guarantee to a signing bonus and drastically reducing his base salary (ala Jerick McKinnon) could provide him time to rehab and potentially be a contributor again while lessening the blow on our salary cap.

Regardless of what happens with Richburg and Ford, it’s highly unlikely that either return to the Niners on their current deals. This is an area where the Niners can—and likely will—free up some cap space. The question is how much and what kind of holes would those moves make in our roster.

Already Signed

The Niners have already started re-signing some players, but given the cap situation, they’ve been limited to smaller deals—mostly with guys filling out the backend of the roster. That means a handful of these re-signings have been with Exclusive Rights Free Agents—young guys with zero, one, or two accrued seasons in the league who aren’t really free agents at all because the Niners can lock them up on the league minimum—and Restricted Free Agents—guys with three accrued seasons who can be offered a tender but can negotiate with other teams (if signed, the Niners can receive draft compensation).

Jeff Wilson was given a 1-year deal, which is the biggest move of note so far. I don’t think I’m the only one who believes the Raheem Mostert / Wilson backfield combo is our most productive and dangerous rotation. While both have dealt with injuries in the past, they both run very hard and fit the scheme perfectly. I know we like to believe that the Shanahan/Bobby Turner duo can create running backs out of thin air, but locking up Wilson is a less-publicized but crucial move entering this off-season. He’ll count just over $2 million against the cap—basically, he’s on a slightly discounted version of the lowest possible RFA tender in exchange for some guaranteed cash. That’s less than the second-round tender that we gave Matt Breida last year for a player who is currently much more productive (although we likely had aspirations of trading Breida when we made that tender). It’s a good deal.

The Niners followed that up with similar deals with Ross Dwelley and Marcell Harris just before the weekend. By committing to one-year deals, the Niners lock them into the roster but keep the cost lower than the lowest possible RFA tender—giving them cap flexibility, locking in contributors, and assuring each of them some guaranteed cash.

Dwelley was a crucial sub for us in 2019, playing vital replacement snaps for both George Kittle and Juice while they were out with injury. Harris went from a safety with some coverage concerns to a Will linebacker midway through last year—a brilliant move on Robert Saleh’s part that both allowed Jimmie Ward to roll down near the line of scrimmage and maximize his versatility and let Harris do what he does best—play forward in a physical manner—without getting too overexposed to bigger bodies in the run game. Both were coaching staff favorites and retaining them is a nice move towards maintaining depth.

Elsewhere, River Cracraft returns on an ERFA deal. After his short stint as a starting wideout in the COVID-depleted Packers game, he really established himself on special teams… Safeties Kyle Nacua and Jared Mayden return on ERFA and RFA deals, respectively. With Jaquiski Tartt potentially on his way out, they have depth potential beyond their special teams play (although we’d obviously like to stay healthy and not need to use them). The same can be said with cornerback Ken Webster, who just got a one-year deal… Staying on special teams, long snapper Taybor Pepper received a two-year extension, locking in our trio of specialists from 2020. RB Austin Walter—who you may remember as our undersized kick returner with a fullback’s number who had a single big “who the hell was that guy” catch-and-run against the Saints—was also brought back on an RFA deal. Jauan Jennings, who started his rookie season on the practice squad before a bad hamstring tear—is on a futures contract. Finally, Josh Rosen was signed to a one-year extension—giving the Niners three quarterbacks locked up for 2021—Garoppolo, Rosen, and Josh Johnson. If I had to guess, Rosen/Johnson will be expected to fight it out for the third quarterback role as the dust settles with whatever the hell is going on at that position (to be discussed in a later write-up).

“Free” Agents: ERFAs and RFAs

Doing his best Spider-man meme impersonation [Allie Goulding / TNS]

The dudes below have NOT been re-signed yet, and they get their own section because of how different ERFA and RFA free agency is compared to Unrestricted Free Agency. The deadline to offer players tenders is this weekend (Saturday, March 13th) so we’ll know right before the legal tampering period starts where we stand with them.

OL, Daniel Brunskill (ERFA): As a likely starter at either center or right guard in 2021, the Niners will be happy to re-sign him on the league minimum. The only reason they haven’t yet is likely because they’re not sure if they want to offer him something longer and lock him up on the cheap for more years. While we had tons of problems along the interior last year, those were largely not the fault of Brunskill. He didn’t emerge as a star by any means, but given the constant movement he was forced into both in training camp and throughout the season, it’s hard to say we know the book on Brunskill quite yet. I’m still bullish and expect him to hold down the starting position at either center or right guard in 2021. Being able to focus on just one of them through the summer and fall could be huge towards his development as a player.

CB, Emmanuel Moseley (RFA): With the RFA deadline coming before free agency actually begins, it will be interesting to see what level tender the Niners offer Moseley. Basically, a team can offer a tender that correlates with the level of compensation they’ll require if the tendered player signs elsewhere. Those tenders are first round ($4.7M), second round ($3.4M), and right of first refusal ($2.1M). The draft compensation amounts aren’t written in stone—Breida was given a second-round tender last year but we traded him for a fifth-rounder—but if I had to guess, Moseley will get a second-round tender. He’s played well for us, has some flexibility to play in the slot if need be, and we currently have none of our top six cornerbacks on contract. I’m an E-Man fan, I think he still has some untapped potential, and if we don’t tender him at a second-round level it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t get swooped up.

QB, Nick Mullens (RFA): Despite rumors that realistically won’t end until Jimmy G wins (at least one) Super Bowl, my money is still on Garoppolo being our starting quarterback at the beginning of 2021. That said, there is next-to-zero chance that the Niners aren’t trying to improve the backup position. While Rosen and Johnson both have contracts for next year, there’s at least a shot that neither make the active roster and Mullens returns. Helping Mullens’ case is the fact that Rich Scangarello—the former-now-current-again 49ers QB coach who liked Mullens out of college—is back on staff. That said, if Mullens comes back I would expect it to be in the form of a late free agency return, not on an RFA tender. The Niners’ goal seems to be to add a brand new backup (potentially one who can be a starter down the road), and Mullens doesn’t seem to fit into that equation.

The Jets Connection

This is an odd year to have a lot of free agents for a number of reasons, but one of them is because of the coaching staff that Robert Saleh has amassed in New York. By bringing both his own defense and Shanahan’s offense to the Jets—who have the second-most cap space in the league at $82M—Saleh has made East Rutherford a natural landing spot for any of our free agents.

This has its benefits and its drawbacks. I’d love to retain Kerry Hyder, but if he leaves for an over-market contract from the Jets that would give us a nice comp pick in return. Likewise for Richard Sherman (although due to his age, that comp pick would be maxed out as a fifth-rounder). Overnight, the rebuilding New York Jets have become a nice landing spot for any free agents who we may not be prioritizing and an opportunity for us to net nice comp picks in return.

But there’s a big flip side to that on the back-end of our roster. In most years, guys like Ronald Blair and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Dontae Johnson, would be slam-dunk returns in 2021—playing important depth roles on veteran minimums. Now, there’s at least one other potential suitor for their services and that suitor has way more spending power and is much more desperate for known locker room contributors. The Jets connection could give us marginal returns in compensatory picks, but it could also gut (or at least create mini bidding wars for) the back-end depth of our roster.

Tier 1 Free Agents

Pancakes on the menu, 24/7 [Giantswire]

Ranked based on priority to get them re-signed, NOT overall talent (although to get into this tier, you’re gonna really be able to ball at a high level). These are our top priority targets to lock up on new deals. If one of these guys were to depart, it would drastically affect the way we approach free agency and the early rounds of this April’s draft.

LT, Trent Williams

Williams returned from his Washington Racial Slurs-incompetence-based sabbatical in impressive fashion, creating highlight clips that were equal parts frightening and hilarious en route to playing at an All-Pro level. With a 91.9 PFF rating, Williams was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated offensive tackle (regardless of side) and is sure to be the Niners free agent with the most outside interest. While the off-season began with tons of optimism that Williams would be re-signed before hitting the open market, he now seems interested in testing his market value. While I’d still say we have a better than 50/50 chance of retaining him—he should know as well as anyone the drawbacks of taking more money to join a franchise with issues—there will be teams with more cap space (some of them even good teams) who will be willing to outbid us.

So what would it cost to retain him? The COVID Cap makes free agency salary projections a near-impossible task this year. The only thing we really know is that all but the most cap wealthy teams are going to backload their cap hits out of necessity. But we can try and estimate what retaining Trent Williams could look like.

The three highest-paid tackles in football are David Bakhtiari ($23M/year), Laremy Tunsil ($22M/year), and Ronnie Stanley ($19.75M/year). However, there is reason to believe that Williams—despite his play—will not necessarily be resetting the market. The three players above were age 29, 25, and 25—respectively—at the time that they signed those extensions. Trent Williams will be 33 before the 2021 season starts. That, in addition to his lengthy injury history, should depress his salary just a little bit. Spotrac projects his average annual salary at $18.2M, which would put him just over Lane Johnson as the fourth-highest paid tackle in the league. That would be totally fine by me.

Why He’s So Important: Did you see Justin Skule last year? Williams is an All-Pro at one of the most important positions in football and the depth behind him is one giant, glaring question mark. Even with Shon Coleman’s return from a COVID opt-out, we have zero evidence that the left tackle position has even a serviceable long-term starter without Williams in the fold, and his leaving would immediately change our entire free agency and draft plans. 

Williams also presents the rare combination of size and athleticism that makes our running game hum at the tackle position. He’s one of the most athletic tackles in the game and pairing him with Mike McGlinchey in the run game means we always have a shot to pound the rock against anyone. 

It’s also worth noting that Williams’ age—like Sherman and Emmanuel Sanders before him—means that his comp pick return would max out as a fifth-rounder, even if his salary would dictate otherwise. In most situations, if a top-tier player left for a massive contract we could at least have consolation in the third-round comp pick we’d be receiving in return. Not so in this case, and that makes retaining Williams even more important.

Potential Replacements: The draft. 

There are not a lot of guys who can do what Williams can do and the few big-name tackles who could be available aren’t really what we’re looking for. Taylor Moton will likely be re-signed or franchised by Carolina, and—as a guy who some thought would have to shift to guard due to athletic concerns out of college—he’s likely not a great schematic fit. Daryl Williams is similar—a big guy who is more of a right tackle. With both players under the age of 30, they’ll likely not come cheap, and paying a premium for a downgrade at tackle would be a tough pill to swallow.

Entering the draft with a glaring hole that you need to address early is not a good place to be, but if we are forced to find another tackle, the silver lining is that this is a strong class for them. There could be upwards of a dozen tackles taken in the top 100 picks of the draft and taking one of those guys on the first two days (potentially with the #12 overall pick) would be our best path forward if we miss out on re-signing Williams.

CB, Jason Verrett

Verrett was the unsung star of last year’s defense, not only because of his miraculous return from basically three straight seasons(!) wiped out by injury but because he allowed us to offset our dwindled pass rush with a greater variety of backend coverages: namely, he could play man coverage really well.

Verrett’s versatility was a big part of our continued transition away from the Seattle 3 system—even with what became a rotating door of corners starting opposite him. He finished the season as PFF’s 8th-ranked cornerback and allowed us to play a secondary-down style of defense for large swaths of the year in a way that even a healthy Richard Sherman wouldn’t have allowed us to get away with.

But in terms of guestimating what his next contract will be… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Unsurprisingly, there is zero salary precedent for a player at a premier position, who was an All-Pro on his rookie deal, who then got hurt and played in only six games over four years(!), who then returned to Pro Bowl form shortly before his thirtieth birthday.

Verrett’s age helps give him priority over Sherman but isn’t exactly a selling point to other teams. Unsurprisingly the biggest red flag for him—both in terms of what we offer and what others do—is his lengthy injury history. While he looked excellent last year, it’s impossible to tell from the outside looking in whether this is a lucky blip of health or the end of an incredibly unlucky stretch of the opposite.

Verrett has talked publicly about how much he appreciated how the Niners have treated him and handled his rehab—in particular how they convinced him to sit last year to get fully healthy—and how that will be beneficial for the good guys come free agency. In a perfect world, he’d like to retain the training staff who helped build him back to his Pro Bowl level of play and comes back to the bay. And if other teams are scared off by his injury history and are only willing to offer short-term “prove it” deals, why would he leave?

If he re-signs with the Niners I’d be looking at a deal that avoids putting us in the situation where we are now with Dee Ford. Likely something heavily incentive-based with modest guaranteed money. We want to reward the guy when he plays well, but we’re really starting to feel the cap pressure from the big-ticket injury flameouts who we’ve acquired through the years (Malcolm Smith, Pierre Garcon, Richburg, etc.).

Why He’s So Important: Verrett gets the nod over Sherman due to his versatility, age, and (recent) availability. As every color commentary person repeated ad nauseam throughout the back half of last season, we have zero cornerbacks signed for 2021, thus making the position of utmost importance. And while Moseley is likely back, and we could benefit from the returns of guys like Ahkello Witherspoon and Dontae Johnson for depth, letting both Verrett and Sherman walk would make outside cornerback a major roster hole.

Potential Replacements: We’re about to figure out how much the Niners really want to prioritize the cornerback position and whether or not their mindset has changed with the evolution of their defense the past year. Cornerback is like left tackle—a high-paid premium position in a year where we’re strapped for cash—and in some ways Verrett’s FA mirrors that of Williams’. 

If Verrett walks, it’s hard to see us pursuing someone in free agency with a contract that will likely be close-to or greater-than Verrett’s asking price. We’d likely prioritize the re-signing of both Witherspoon and Johnson—plus Tim “much-hyped-by-me-but-will-he-ever-play” Harris will (theoretically) see legitimate snaps in 2021—but we’d also have to look to the draft.

Similar to our situation at left tackle, the bright side is that this draft is strong at cornerback, with a number of long and very athletic types populating the middle of the first round of most mock drafts. A year ago I’d say the Niners would NOT draft a first-round cornerback unless they’re the next coming of Jalen Ramsey, but perhaps that thinking has changed. If Verrett leaves, we’ll find out sooner than we would have liked.

Tier 2 Free Agents

The Harvard Difference [Tony Avelar / AP]

These are key contributors who we’re already engaging in talks to re-sign. While losing one of these guys wouldn’t necessarily create massive changes in our early draft plans, their roles would definitely have to be filled with new blood.

Juice / Kendrick Bourne

I’m clustering these two guys together for reasons that will become slightly more clear later

Both Shanahan and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels love Juice and the feeling seems mutual.

That’s an OC right there! pic.twitter.com/SHm0LmgjYY

— Kyle Juszczyk (@JuiceCheck44) January 18, 2021

That said, there was a ripe market for Juice last time he was a free agent (the Niners blew up the fullback market to get him and were supposedly the second-highest offer that he got), and with so many people running some iteration of Shanahan’s offense these days, it’s hard to imagine that interest has waned.

Juice had a few stellar performances last year (see: New England) but was far less consistent than in 2019. While I’m willing to attribute some of those issues—particularly on combo edge blocks—to miscommunication and lack of chemistry with younger players, if you’re paying a fullback 140% of the salary of the league’s second-highest-paid fullback, you want to see the results daily. This is especially the case if the debate is between re-signing Juice or rolling with a replacement-level fullback and re-signing Kendrick Bourne. 

KB has steadily improved each year, has slippery length and consistency (even despite drops) that is nice to have in a position group that has seen a lot of turnover over the years, and—like Juice—clearly wants to return to the Niners. The interest is mutual, but it begs the question: how much do you pay a guy who is clearly the third wideout and the fourth receiving option for an offense? If I had to guess, I’d look somewhere in the Cordarrelle Patterson-esque $3M-$4M range?

Why They’re So Important: The major differences between Shanahan’s offense and all of its offshoots are (A) Shanahan’s is more complex (and better), and (B) he commits more to running the ball with an extra blocker (and the play fakes which that unlocks). Clearly, that second part is where Juice comes into play. If we don’t have plus fullback play, the offense needs to shift considerably, and I don’t think we (nor Shanahan) want that to happen.

An alternative option that’s been floated around is that the Niners could go further away from the two-back sets of 21 personnel and invest in another tight end. While the idea of Kittle and someone like Florida’s Kyle Pitts is certainly intriguing, the fullback and tight end are not interchangeable (not even in this offense), and while extra gaps in the running game from double tight has its value, a fullback in the backfield allows for blocking action to both directions of the formation and sucks in defenses more horizontally, thus opening up more space for slants and chunk plays in the quick game outside and in the short alleys. I’m not saying it can’t work (see: Gronk/Hernandez Patriots), but I am saying that it has its limitations (see: 2019 Ertz/Goedert Eagles). And that it doesn’t seem to be what the Niners would prefer.

As for KB, he is both our most steady receiver (in terms of availability) and our best in the red zone. He’s an underrated blocker (yes, it does ACTUALLY matter in the Niners’ scheme) and can play any and all of the different positions out wide. While a No.3/4 option is often a roster slot filled with a journeyman type, due to injury concerns in the position group I’d argue KB is more valuable than your standard No.3 wideout.

Potential Replacements: What becomes of Juice and Bourne also depends largely on what we have behind them. Because while the potential fill-ins have intriguing potential, they are very VERY green.

Juice’s heir apparent is Josh Hokit, a second-year player who was a do-it-all type for Fresno State, but—as a practice squad fullback—someone who we clearly don’t really know anything about. That said, we’d likely be saving at least $5M in cap space starting Hokit on a rookie minimum versus Juice—who is likely going to garner at least slightly more than the $5.2M AAV of his previous deal.

Who would replace KB is equally as complicated, but for slightly different reasons. I may write up something later on Kyle Pitts and how he may be able to fill multiple roles for our offense in the unlikely situation that we select him, but KB’s role would likely be filled by some combination of Richie James and whoever can emerge un-injured between Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings. Despite the tantalizing size, versatility, and athleticism of what Hurd could be, it’s hard to put all your eggs in a basket whose missed his first two seasons due to injury. Likewise for Jennings, who hasn’t even played in a preseason game and whom we know isn’t the athlete Hurd is. There’s also Travis Benjamin, who’ll be back on a one-year deal after his COVID opt out, but he’s more of a depth/journeyman type and doesn’t provide the RZ value that we covet. Ultimately, replacing KB would likely involve diving into another deep class of wideouts, even if having a starting lineup of wideouts all on their rookie contracts is far from ideal.

Tier 3 Free Agents

This could have something to do with those trade requests that aren’t actually requests [Michael Zaggaris / Getty Images]

We want these guys back, but it’d be a luxury more than a need. Their primary replacements could already be on the roster, with additional players being brought in to back them up.

DE, Kerry Hyder

Hyder was another savior of our defense last year, getting signed on a paltry contract to play a backup role before being thrust into the starting lineup in week two and repositioned as the team’s primary edge rusher. While he lacks the quick twitch and bend of someone like Dee Ford, the idea of Hyder lining up opposite a healthy Nick Bosa is hugely intriguing. If money were no option, he’d be higher on this list, but he has likely played his way out of re-signing with the Niners. The only reason I’m even including him on this list is because (A) if something falls through with Trent Williams we may have added space to be used on someone like Hyder and (B) the pass-rusher market is overflowing with talent this off-season, which could depreciate Hyder’s value.

If the latter occurs then perhaps Hyder agrees to another short-term, moderately paid season in hopes of getting a big payday a year from now. While I entered the off-season convinced he was gone, I very well might be wrong. The book might not be out on Hyder quite yet (NFL.com didn’t have him on the list of the NFL’s top 101 free agents of 2021). If so, I’d be happy to take back Hyder on a modest deal.

The absolute worst-case scenario is that we get priced out of a one-year rental. As in, we don’t have the money for a mid-level deal so he takes one on another team in hopes of catapulting another good season into a post-COVID windfall. That scenario would mean we get minimal compensatory pick return and that a stopgap team would be reaping the benefits a year later, rather than us.

Potential Replacements: There are a lot of intriguing names out there, but it’s hard to place which ones would land in our price range. If we’re outbid on Hyder then we can safely say we’re outbid on all the Shaq Barrett / Matt Judon-type guys and likely the tier beneath them as well. There’s a chance we could hope for a market-based discount on a potential lateral move like Shelby Harris or roll the dice on one-year wonder (with first-round pedigree) Haason Reddick. Regardless, I would assume our plan at DE is to wait out the initial movement, find value once the dust settles, then draft a speed rusher.

DT, D.J. Jones

Jones is a big body who moves like a considerably smaller one. While he’s been hampered with injuries and didn’t have the breakout campaign that many would have hoped last year, he’s been a plus contributor for the past two years and has played in 27 of 32 possible regular season games during that time. He’s also the only actual nose tackle-type that we have on the active roster. Given that he’s probably more valuable to us than elsewhere and likely doesn’t have the body of work to net a big payday, I’d expect us to be able to retain him at a reasonable rate. If not, it’s certainly a position we’ll attempt to fill on the cheap. The arrow’s pointing up for both Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens, but we need a real nose to pair with them on early downs.

Potential Replacements: If D.J. departs, his primary replacement is likely already on the practice squad. Darrion Daniels was getting some training camp love last season and ended up seeing playing time in four games down the stretch of his rookie season. Was he prepared for that playing time? No, not really. But he’s a massive nose tackle body with enough quicks to project as a contributor along the DL and should only improve with an actual off-season and preseason under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek. 

Slot CB, K’Waun Williams

On pure talent alone, Williams would be higher up on this list, but the nature of the position and the market means re-signing him is slightly less pressing. As nickel corners often are, K’Waun Williams has long been an underrated talent. While he wasn’t as splashy last year and was—like everyone else—limited by injuries, he’s been one of the better nickel corners in the league for the past few seasons and has been healthy for 43 of 48 games with the Niners leading up to last year (when he missed eight contests). Our nickel corners are important starters and active edge defenders / rushers. 

Potential Replacements: Depending on what happens on the outside, Emmanuel Moseley has played in the nickel before. While it doesn’t seem to naturally fit his physical profile, he’s a smart dude and would certainly be able to make it work. Jamar Taylor played well in Williams’ stead, but he’s a UFA and unfortunately tore his ACL mid-season, so it’s tough to know if/when he’ll be back. An external candidate of interest would be the New York Jets’ Brian Poole. Good players on bad teams are often a prime candidate to get undervalued on the market and Poole’s been one of the better nickel corners in the NFL for quite some time. That said, with Saleh in the fold there, it would be hard to see them letting Poole go if they believe he fits the scheme that they’re implementing. His availability may be based on whether the Jets are trying to avoid any major contracts so that they can commit to a multi-year rebuild or not.

Tier 4 Free Agents

As mentioned earlier, Richard Sherman is basically out the door already and has largely stated as much publicly. We should be wishing all our free agents well, both for their contributions to our team and community and because the more they get paid the better draft returns we receive. Sherman’s potential return caps out as a fifth-rounder, but we’d be happy to take that if he can find one more big payday.

If the oft-injured Jaquiski Tartt returns it would likely be late in free agency on a bargain deal. He’s a good player, a vital communicator, and is still on the right side of thirty, but his injury concerns are simply too great, and the Niners will likely be looking to see if they can maximize Tarvarius Moore’s tremendous physical gifts in the last year on his rookie deal.

Given what will likely be a slim market for their services and our need at the position, I’d happily take back Ahkello Witherspoon, Dontae Johnson, and (depending on his rehab) Jamar Taylor. Even if we don’t have continuity amongst starters, having backups who know what they’re doing is crucial. LB Joe Walker’s return likely hinges on what our roster looks like in terms of specials after the draft as special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was not tendered last week.

Along the DL, Ziggy Ansah is likely a walk. I’d love to take back Ronald Blair on a one-year contract if his knee is right. Again, this could be a chance where Saleh—a vocal Blair fan—could poach one of our guys, but with snaps available opposite Bosa and a rehab team that he’s accustomed to, Blair has plenty of reasons to stay. He could be the 2020 version of Kerry Hyder (aka the 2018 version of Ronald Blair). Dion Jordan and Solomon Thomas likely are who they are at this point, but depending on how the rest of our DL shakes out that could be enough to find a rotational position. The draft capital we traded for Jordan Willis (a 2022 sixth-rounder for him and a 2021 seventh-rounder in return) is low enough that we could cut ties with him and not regret the trade, but I’d expect the team to bring him back through the off-season and training camp to see if they can untap his potential.

Along the OL, I wouldn’t expect Tony Bergstrom, Tom Compton, or Hroniss Grasu to return, but I’d welcome back Ben Garland if he’s recovered from injury. He’s no world-beater in pass protection but he is a really good run blocker and a Garland/Brunskill combo on the interior would already make me feel better than last year.

In the backfield, Tevin Coleman and Jet McKinnon are likely walks—with the Niners’ third running back job going to JaMychal Hasty—who flashed for a bit before people realized he was always cutting back and would never bounce anything—Austin Walter, and/or a late drafted/undrafted rookie. 

Trent Taylor was fully supplanted by Richie James midway through last year. He’s probably played his last snap as a Niner. If Jordan Reed returns or not likely depends in part on his interest in playing. He returned last year because of his relationship with Shanahan and his belief that this team could compete for a championship. While I continue to be extremely bullish on the Niners, the path looked a lot clearer a year ago and it’s TBD whether or not he wants to put his body on the line for another year. Lastly, CJ Beathard was clearly the better of our backups by the end of last year, but I expect the Niners to make a move on the outside to shore up that position.

That’s next time.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Week 15: @ Cowboys

You know it’s bad when you recognize this as a meme

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys (4-9; 4th in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/20
Location: Arlington, TX
Kickoff: 10:00 AM PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

What was once tabbed for the Sunday night game has since been un-flexed into an innocuous 10 AM start on CBS, punishment for the underwhelming play and massive injury lists accompanying both these squads. Like us, the Cowboys have a legitimate claim that injuries have thrown off their preseason expectations. Unlike us, these Dallas Cowboys are genuinely not a good football team. But coming off their most impressive win of the season—a 30-7 drubbing of the Bengals—and with a 2-2 record since their bye week, they can at least make the claim that they are no longer a terrible one. And that’s enough to make this a ball-game.

INJURY REPORT

While there’s still nothing official, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is likely out for this week and probably the rest of the season… by Thursday, Daniel Brunskill (shoulder), Fred Warner (stinger), Raheem Mostert (ankle), K’Waun Williams (ankle), D.J. Jones (ankle), and Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring) were all limited participants in practice. From most-likely to least-likely, I ordered that list as a pure guess as to the likelihood that each of those guys plays… George Kittle’s (foot) practice window opened this week. While he was involved in routes and other activities by Thursday, it is highly highly unlikely that he plays this week. Depending on what happens on Sunday both in our game and around the league, it may make the most sense to shelve him for 2021… Colton McKivitz was put on the COVID list earlier this week. That combined with Hroniss Grasu (knee) not practicing Thursday and Ben Garland (ankle) not likely to return at all this year makes for gigantic question marks along the interior. Even if we’re assuming Brunskill plays, could we see the first of CFL practice-squadder Dakoda Shepley?… finally, updates on the status of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) are still vague, but at the moment he’s probably not coming back this year.

OFFENSE

Probably (hopefully) not an in-game photo? [Aaron Doster / AP]

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is a holdover from the Jason Garrett regime, and it’s widely believed he’ll be a head man in the NFL sooner rather than later. There’s naturally some debate as to whether Moore is truly a whiz kid who was hamstrung by a head coach on his way out—which was ironically the exact same label applied to Jason Garrett when he was under Wade Phillips a decade ago—or simply a competent pilot of an offense with a sizable talent advantage. 

Regardless, the pure yardage totals paint a favorable picture of his ability. Despite finishing last season 8-8, the Boys had the 2nd-best Offensive DVOA in all of football under Moore’s tutelage and exploded out of the gates this year—putting up over 500 yards of offense in three straight games—before cratering as injuries to their quarterback and offensive line depleted this star-studded unit. Since then, the Cowboys have at least plugged the most glaring holes in their sinking ship, and Dak Prescott has made himself a lot of money.

In the four games that Prescott played and finished, he averaged 422 yards passing, completed a career high 68% of his passes, threw for 9 TDs vs 3 INTs and rushed for an additional three scores. While the Boys were 1-3 in those games (and really should have been 0-4 if not for an absurd onside kick), the offense was not primary culprit.

Here are Dallas’ splits this year when Dak started and finished the game compared to when any other quarterback was under center, with rankings compared to the current season-long averages across the league.

If you’re wondering who edged them out for last place in three categories, it’s obviously the Jets every time

Other than the running game and turnovers (Dak did lose three fumbles on top of his three picks in those first four games), the offense absolutely cratered after Prescott went down. But losing their quarterback wasn’t the only problem. 

Their unreasonably stacked offensive line has also been ravaged by injuries. Pro Bowl right tackle La’El Collins sustained a hip injury in the preseason and has yet to play a snap. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith—of “my arms are so huge I need to wear knee braces on them” fame—played only two games before being shelved the season with a neck injury. Rookie center Tyler Biadasz went down in week 8 and has yet to return. And even All-Pro guard Zack Martin—who has finished in the top 5 or better in PFF rating in all seven of his NFL seasons and was moved to tackle out of desperation following the bye—has been out since week 12. What’s left from what has long been considered one of the top offensive lines in football are the two Connors—McGovern and Williams—who are still holding it down rather well at the guard positions. Unfortunately, they’re now starting journeyman and former-Niner Joe Looney at center and while their situation at tackle has improved from its nightmarish status earlier in the season, it remains far from an offensive strength.

Running behind this line is Ezekiel Elliott, one of the best backs in the game but one who’s in the midst of an off-year. As the offensive line has slowly gelled and the team has re-committed to force-feeding him touches, Zeke has improved, and he can still turn would-be 2-yard gains into 5- and 6-yard ones with his blend of size, athleticism, and burst. But that’s only when he finds a crease and those creases have been hard to come by.

With the OL decimated due to injury, the real depth of this offense is in its pass-catchers. Amari Cooper will drop some balls, but he’s a great route runner who excels after the catch. The slender and acrobatic rookie CeeDee Lamb has been impressive as a rookie, even if his numbers dropped off significantly after Dak went down. Michael Gallup continues to fill the mercurial “that guy” position opposite their No.1–a spot long held down by Terrence Williams which can be best described as “I don’t really know if they’re that good or not but they do make a handful of big plays each year.” Dalton Schultz is a reliable option at tight end. Even Cedrick Wilson doesn’t suck.

But getting these talented skill players the ball continues to be a major challenge for this Cowboys offense, which is helmed by the ghost of Andy Dalton and an offensive line that struggles tremendously to protect him. To be fair, the Boys spent the bye week recommitting to: (A) protecting the ball—with 4 turnovers over the last four games after 20 over their first nine—and (B) finding more creative ways to get their playmakers in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts and a passing game that has embraced lower volume and shorter completions as to protect their suspect tackles.

The Boys were a dumpster fire entering their bye week and spent that time off committing to protecting the ball—with four turnovers over the last four games after twenty through their first nine—and finding more creative ways to get their playmakers the ball in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts, as well as a passing game that has embraced lower volume and lower risk—a style that better fits the demeanor of Andy Dalton.

These adjustments—along with a healthy Dalton—have resulted in the Cowboys putting up 370+ yards of offense twice in the past two weeks, while their recent 30-7 win over the Bengals marked their biggest margin of victory this season (their previous three wins came by a combined total of 7 points). This is an offense that has a couple glaring weaknesses but has at least settled into an identity over the past month, even if that identity is a far cry from the explosive monster they were to start the season.  

DEFENSE

This year’s had a whole lot of this [DallasCowboys.com]

Former 49ers head-man Mike Nolan was brought in as the Boys’ DC this off-season. This despite the team understanding that they didn’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, the front office lacking the patience and/or commitment to adjust to that scheme, and Nolan being given the orders to “run a multiple scheme with 3-4 elements.” That’s gone about as well as you would have expected.

After struggling mightily to start the season—allowing an average of 431 yards and 36 points over their first four games—Nolan quickly switched to a “simpler” scheme in hopes that the Cowboys would perform a bit better, but that hasn’t amounted to much.

This Cowboys defense, which was recently known for its dangerous and deep defensive line and young stars at linebacker, is now a shell of its former self. Their moves along the defensive line have largely backfired. They dumped a rarely-used Kerry Hyder to clear space to add Gerald McCoy to a three-year $18.3M contract, a deal which—as McCoy has yet to play this season—has since been dissolved on injury settlement but only after doling out of all of its guaranteed cash. They then added the XXL version of Aldon Smith, a move which looked brilliant when he blew up at the beginning of the year—totaling four sacks in a single game and at once point having the top pass-rush win rate in the league—but an extra 40 pounds, five years off from football, and way too many snaps have gassed him out down the stretch. While DeMarcus Lawrence is still an absolute stud, he’s been the only one holding it down on this once feared defensive line.

In the back seven it doesn’t get much better. While the Boys returned the large majority of their linebackers and secondary from last year, the play of both units has plummeted across the board. Once again, I will preface the below chart of PFF ratings with the caveat that their grading system is far from perfect, but when it comes to massive outliers on large sample sizes, trends can be telling. And this chart of grades from the Cowboys’ back seven players in 2019 versus 2020 has a very obvious trend.

At linebacker, the hyper athletic duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch are just two years removed from being considered one of the best linebacker duos in the league—finishing 6th and 5th respectively in PFF grading for their position during the 2018 season. Now they look lost as Dallas’ D gets gashed on the ground. While in the secondary, this was never a true lockdown crew, but it was a largely functional one. That’s barely the case anymore.

You don’t get dips in play across the board—and double-digit drops for six of nine of your major contributors—without something being foundationally wrong. It would be one thing if this was meant to be a transition year, in which the Cowboys were cleaning house to go young and bring in guys who fit the 3-4 scheme, but since management and coaching can’t really agree on where they should land schematically, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or at least, any light that retains this defensive staff beyond this year.

MATCHUP

With Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder giving us a massive advantage on the edges, the Cowboys will likely try to attack the interior of our run defense with an assortment of quick plunges as well as the kind of baby draws that the Bills used early in week 13. While their OL play has been better in pass-protection than run-blocking, this isn’t a team that wants to get into many clear passing downs, so keeping Zeke’s runs to 2- and 3-yard gains versus 6- and 7-yard ones will be key.

While Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback and one of the better backups in the league, he’s still a lesser version of the same guy whose been a mediocre-at-best starter for at least the past three years. With their offensive line intact, that could have been enough, but in the Boys’ current state the Niners should look to confuse Dalton, take away the layups underneath, and mix-up pressures on passing downs. This is not a Cowboys team that can survive if forced into a high-volume passing game, so that’s exactly what we should push them into.

Offensively, whether it’s CJ Beathard or Nick Mullens, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, we need to protect the football and RUN THE BALL. The Cowboys have the 27th-ranked defense in rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards in the league (2,115 yards) as well as the worst yards/carry average (5.1 ypc). With us trotting out our second or third quarterback and with many weapons missing, they’re sure to load the box and will likely send extra bodies on blitzes so that their guys can focus on running, chasing, and hitting rather than reading and reacting. That means misdirection in the backfield and picking them apart with play action, RPOs, and the short-to-intermediate game will be key to keeping the Cowboys honest. Last week, we had plenty of open looks against a stout defense and a dominant defensive line, but we simply couldn’t connect. This week, against a much-lesser defense, there’s truly no excuse.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Racial Slurs 23, Niners 15

Yurp [Niners Wire]

Back by popular demand... The Eagles Game 2.0!  

What’s that? You hated that game? Well too bad, this is the world we live in. 

In a game where our defense held Washington to 193 yards of total offense and three field goals, the 17 points allowed off turnovers—two on giveaways returned for touchdowns—were the difference in yet another hideous battle with a current NFC East leader.

OFFENSE

The big keys heading into this game were to control game flow and prevent costly turnovers. You could MAYBE argue that we kind of accomplished one of those. But not really. In an all-too-familiar case of deja vu, we massively out-gained our opponent in terms of yardage (344-193), but lengthy cold stretches and turnovers trumped whatever successes we had.

Believe it or not, this was nearly the exact same offensive output we manufactured in our last win against the Rams (345 yards of offense, 16 offensive points, 3 turnovers), but it sure felt a helluva lot worse in a loss against a (now) six-win team.

Hamstrung again. There’s nothing concrete yet, but it seems likely that Deebo’s latest injury—a hamstring strain on the very first play from scrimmage—will shelve him for the rest of the year. Hamstrings are fickle, and if sitting him now will increase the chances of a healthy hammy next year, we shouldn’t think twice—even if the thought of what our offensive output may look like without him paints a grim picture.

Last year we found out pretty quick what our offense looks like without Kittle. This year, we can add on what it looks like without Kittle AND Deebo. Obviously, it’s not pretty.

Utilizing so many position-less skill players presents us with some obvious advantages in terms of matchups and what we like to do schematically, but if it has a drawback it’s that the more unique a player you have, the harder they are to replace when injured. With his very first touch going for nine yards on a handoff, it was clear that Deebo was going to be a big part of our game plan. Just as it was equally clear the second he pulled up gimpy that we’d have no means of replacing his role once he went down.

While Deebo’s intangible benefits and knack for flash plays are fairly obvious to see, I think people really underestimate his pure statistical impact as well. The fact that Deebo wasn’t an immediate full-time starter last year and that he plays such a unique hybrid role in our offense often means he’s left out of discussions about the league’s top young wideouts. So I decided to tabulate some splits that better show his box score impact.

Here’s a list of the many receivers drafted in that 2019 class who have established themselves as full-time starters, but only including games where the wideout plays at least 50% of the team’s snaps. While this doesn’t change the math for guys like Metcalf, McLaurin, and AJ Brown—guys who were full-time starters from day one—it gives a fairer shake for players like Deebo and Diontae Johnson who grew into full-time roles and may have been knocked out of games due to injury.

I’ve included Deebo twice on this chart, first showing his raw stats for any game where he played over 50% of offensive snaps and second presenting his numbers from the first Seattle game of 2019 on (SEA+)—when his snap share jumped from 59% over the first seven games to 82% the remainder of the way. While I believe that run of games more accurately compares him to his peers, as you can see below, his figures are impressive either way:

Aside from games and touchdowns, Deebo leads or is close-to-leading the class in every statistical category. This despite consistently sharing looks and operating in a run-heavy offense that’s been missing its starting quarterback for the majority of 2020. He out-touches guys in wide-open, pass-heavy offenses like Metcalf and Johnson. His yardage is on par with or better than dudes who are undisputed No.1 and No.2 options in McLaurin and A.J. Brown.

In short, Deebo fuxxxx. While we missed him in this game and will miss him for the rest of the season if it comes to that, we need to do whatever it takes to get him as healthy as possible moving forward because he is an absolute foundational piece to the long-term plans of our offense.

Runnin on Empty. We started the game with wide open sets and empty looks that gave Mullens clearer coverage reads, both to settle in our quarterback and to soften up the defense for the running game. Initially it kinda worked, with a promising opening drive fizzling out in Washington territory after a contested drop and a touchdown drive that included 40 yards on the ground coming soon after. 

However, this plan fizzled out rather quickly, and our next eight(!) offensive drives ended in either punts or turnovers before Juice scored early in the fourth. While the commentators seemed to point to the idea that Washington’s defensive line suddenly “turned it on,” there were opportunities to be had, even with a clear trench disadvantage. We didn’t seize those opportunities because of too many mistakes, penalties, and sacks putting us in down-and-distances that we simply haven’t been able to convert all year.

Plus, there was one fundamental problem…

Issues in the Mid-Game. One of the many issues with shaping an offense around a specific quarterback and that quarterback no longer being available is the fact that the offensive scheme has been built around the missing quarterback’s strengths. Not the backup’s strengths. And Mullens and Jimmy G are very different quarterbacks.

Here’s a breakdown of Mullens’ passing stats, separated by the depth of the intended target on each play. I broke the passes down into these three categories because I wanted to differentiate between RB shoot routes, play action leak outs, and screens (<3 yards) versus our short-to-intermediate game (4-13 yards) and finally our longer-developing passes down the field (14+ yards).

Jimmy has never excelled at throwing vertical routes, but we have seen him have success throwing routes like deep outs, wheels, and post-curls—all throws that would land in that intermediate-to-deep range of 14+ yards down the field. However, where we’d expect him to really do well is in that middle range—those 4- to 13-yard completions—where his quick diagnoses, lightning-fast release, and plus underneath accuracy can all shine. As for “<3 yards,” every quarterback in the NFL would be expected to be decent at those.

But here are Mullens’ splits in this game: 

Of note, on his pick six, Mullens was looking at a 5-yd in initially (which was open) before moving over late to the swing route that got returned the other way

In his defense, he was under duress for much of the game and those five drops could have easily been eight (I didn’t include drops where contact from defender came at the same time as the ball). However, in everyone else’s defense, the Niners leaned towards easy completions and short game specifically because they knew the pass rush would be a problem, and a handful of those drops were on late, high passes over the middle, which—for a wideout—is basically a death sentence. 

Ultimately, Mullens seems to be at his best when he’s allowed to see things develop, which means those 10-20 yard completions on post-curls, comebacks, and the like—all routes that we oscillate between lacking the time to protect or the personnel to execute. He’ll show flashes of being able to get the ball out quick underneath (see: Giants game), but overall his timing and accuracy are too up-and-down to sustain drives while relying heavily on those kinds of plays. Unfortunately, those are the kinds of plays we’ve built this offense around and the kind of plays we have the talent upfront to regularly protect.

Again, the struggles we had in the short-to-intermediate game weren’t all on Mullens, and this game was certainly the greatest exaggeration of the differences between him and our starting quarterback. But occasional linebacker blindness aside, Jimmy G could get this offense humming because (when healthy) he was money on those quick-hitters. Mullens it seems, will never be that kind of player. If we had more healthy weapons and he was in an offense that emphasized different concepts, that might not be such a big deal. But this year, in this offense, with who we have available, it has been absolutely that.

DEFENSE

While the opponent should certainly be taken into account, this was one of our defense’s finer performances in a season when we’ve had quite a few. The 193 yards allowed were a season-low and our first time holding a team under 200 yards of offense this season (for reference, we held an opposing team under 200 yards of offense FIVE times last year), while the Racial Slurs’ scoring drives spanned 29, 13, and (right after Fred Warner got hurt) 72 yards. Even when they were scoring, they weren’t exactly instilling a ton of confidence.

Of the 13 offensive drives Washington had, nine ended in punts or turnovers, and seven were three-and-outs, including the last four in a row. This was a dominant performance. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough.

Clamps. Despite entering the game without our top three options at nickel corner, Washington didn’t really have the manpower nor the creativity to exploit our clear weakness. As expected, our secondary was very comfortable rotating through coverages—including plenty of man—and while the Slurs had some sporadic success throwing to their backs after Fred Warner went down, Dre Greenlaw’s impressive third-down stop to give our offense the ball late in the game was a prime example of the immense speed of our linebacker corps.

Alex Smith looked off from the outset—the calf injury was potentially something he’d been dealing with leading up to the game—while Dwayne Haskins… looked like Dwayne Haskins. The result was a passing attack that combined for 15-of-32 passing attempts for 108 yards and one pick. The longest pass they completed on the day went for 13 yards.

Our coverage wasn’t overly complicated, but it is worth pointing out an interesting sub-package that we employed a few times, typically (if not entirely) on third downs.

Here we’re in a dime package with Witherspoon subbing in as our fourth corner. However, instead of Ward and Moore playing in their traditional deep safety roles, Ward has slid into the nickel, Witherspoon has entered as a boundary corner, and Sherman has dropped back into a safety role.

Even if they only run Cover 2 man out of this look (I didn’t comb closely through the film, but that was the coverage they played the few times I saw it), this change-up makes sense for a number of reasons. First-off, it allows you to slide Jimmie Ward down near the line of scrimmage, where he’s excelled the past few weeks; secondly, it gives you a smaller, quicker player in Ward to work as your primary slot with K’Waun, Taylor, and Moseley out with injury; finally, it allows Sherman to use his intelligence in space as a safety—a role which many in the league think he’s destined for sooner rather than later—while preventing him from being out-quicked or out-ran by younger wideouts while in man coverage.

We talked about how Dontae Johnson being forced into the nickel may have made the Niners wary of dialing up too much man coverage against Cole Beasley and the Bills last week. While Dontae would still play in the slot in this set, he can now line up on a bigger target rather than a quicker one—with Ward taking the lead slot receiver—and the Niners still have the ability to go man without worrying about a potential mismatch due to injury.

Interior Re-design. With DJ Jones out due to injury and Kevin Givens gone due to COVID protocols after traveling home for the birth of his daughter on Wednesday (congrats!), there was some concern entering this game that the combination of Kentavius Street and UDFA Darrion Daniels would have some issues with Washington’s interior running game. 

Rather than pile too much responsibility on Street and Daniels—who combined for 48 of 63 possible defensive snaps—the Niners opted to rotate their hybrid defensive ends inside more often, which gave Dion Jordan a season-high 49 snaps as the next man up on the edge. The re-made defensive line did just fine. It may not have been spectacular, and the Slurs did have some success on the ground in the second half, but 47 of their 98 rushing yards came on the drive where Warner got hurt. After that adjustment period both our defensive line and our new linebackers settled in and helped the Niners close out the game (defensively at least) in impressive fashion.

So… where does this leave us? Most likely, it leaves us in the unenviable no-man’s land between stumping for better draft position and sneaking into the playoffs. We are now two full games behind the Cardinals—the seventh seed in the NFC if the season ended today—and playing catchup behind teams like the Vikings and Bears. 

With three games to play, it’s certainly still possible to catch the Cardinals—especially since we play them in two weeks and they must still face the Rams in week 17—but any discussion about us sneaking into the playoffs starts with winning out. And then getting a decent amount of help. 

Go Niners 👍🏈

Wk14: vs. Intolerance

Totally established in 1932. Definitely not a few months ago when FedEx threatened to pull their sponsorship

Opponent: Washington Racial Slurs (5-7; T-1st in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/13
Location: Glendale, AZ (lol)
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Don’t look now but—despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—this team doesn’t suck. In fact, with a record equal to ours, tied in first in the NFC East, and having won three in a row, Washington—fresh off a not-that-surprising upset of the then-undefeated Steelers—has a ton of momentum right now. And perhaps even more impressive, the two men at the core of their turnaround—a QB who nearly lost his leg to sepsis and a head coach who just beat cancer while in-season during a pandemic—have made Washington—again, despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—a decently likable team as well.

INJURY REPORT

Deebo Samuel missed practice on Wednesday but was expected to be back Thursday. With the way he plays, I feel like he’s destined to be on and off the practice field throughout his career. He should be good-to-go by Sunday... Tom Compton had a head injury during last week’s game. That in conjunction with the concussion he sustained a few weeks back during walk-throughs (can’t make this up) means Colton McKivitz is likely to get his second start and will have to play major minutes... Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams are both questionable to return this week. While the Slurs’ passing attack is far from devastating, getting either back would be a big boost in the nickel... no word yet on Ben Garland’s return. Which means it’s not likely to be on Sunday.

OFFENSE

#11 in your programs, only one of those digits in your hearts [Nic Antaya/Getty Images]

Alex Smith is awesome. This offense is not. 

While Smith brings a high-level IQ and “don’t fuck it up” competency level that last year’s first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has yet to show in the NFL (thus leading to his benching), a 36-year-old Smith, coming off 17(!) leg surgeries, who hasn’t played in two years, is obviously not lighting up the scoreboard. Nor are they asking him to.

Smith has been shelved since midway through 2018, but he hasn’t missed much in terms of the offensive revolution in Washington. They’re not the “run the ball, throw a checkdown on third-and-long, punt” offense of yesteryears, but their raw production is probably pretty similar. In terms of DVOA, they’re the 27th-ranked offense, 30th-ranked passing attack, and 17th-ranked rushing game. While they’re certainly the least explosive offense we’ll face the remainder of the way, those rankings undersell this offense at least a tiny bit in that they play strong complementary football with their defense and do an excellent job of not beating themselves.

The Slurs lean on their offensive line—which is strong across the board but especially on the interior—and their backfield duo of Antonio Gibson—the rookie size-speed sledgehammer who may miss the game with turf toe—and JD McKissic—2020’s variation of the scat back rando who Alex Smith makes PPR relevant with his proclivity for check downs. But this isn’t Jimmy Raye “run-run-pass” territory, the Slurs actually throw the ball the 7th-most on first down—leaning heavily on the short-to-intermediate game—as they understand they lack the horses to get out of third-and-longs with regularity.

That’s because out wide they only have a single legitimate weapon. That’s Terry McLaurin, the highly-polished second-year wideout who has more targets this season than the Slurs’ next four top-targeted wideouts combined. Outside of him they have the on-again, off-again contributions of tight end Logan Thomas, who—as a former quarterback—is a poor blocker but is their only size threat in the red zone. All the other wideouts suck. Some have some athletic potential. Some may develop. But right now, they are at best replacement level players.

Their entire offensive game plan is to set up third-and-manageable, get as many first downs as possible, and win the field position game to set up the clear strength of this team: their defense.

DEFENSE

Draft Capitallllll [Inside the Star]

Ron Rivera’s hiring was labeled a slam dunk by many, if not all, media pundits. Not only because he brought stability, discipline, and likability to a franchise that was severely lacking in all of the above, but because many believed his 4-3 defensive prowess would immediately transform the Racial Slurs into one of the best D’s in the business. And it has. Despite their issues on offense, this unit is currently ranked 4th in the country in Defensive DVOA.

It starts up front, where Washington has invested as much draft capital as we have on the defensive line. Chase Young (2020 - 2nd overall), the jewel of this year’s draft, has performed as well as expected, his arrival coinciding with the second-year emergence that Montez Sweat (2019 - 26th overall) was due for as he grew into his frame. Former Alabama teammates Jonathan Allen (2017 - 17th overall) and Da’Ron Payne (2018 - 13th overall) man the inside, while Ryan Kerrigan (2011 - 11th overall) and Tim Settle (2018 - 5th rounder) fill out the rotation. This is a unit that can at least make the claim of being the top defensive line in the nation and currently ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate. 

Behind them, they have an underrated linebacker corps, which largely excels in coverage. Cole Holcomb looks like he may have been a find in the 5th round of last year’s draft. He does everything well, especially against the pass while Kevin Pierre-Louis has issues moving forward but is strong in coverage as well. If there’s a weak spot it’s likely Jon Bostic, who I’ve never really thought was all that good but is clearly doing something right as he’s started 73 games over the past 7 years (albeit on 5 different teams) and is their full-time Mike. 

In the secondary, Ronald Darby, a year after absolutely tanking his value with by far his worst season during a contract year, has returned to form opposite Kendall Fuller, while their two backup safeties—Kamren Curl and Deshazor Everett—have largely outplayed the injured starters they replaced. They benefit from the havoc that the front four creates, but they’re a formidable unit in their own right.

MATCHUP

Defensively, if we win the line of scrimmage—particularly on the interior—we should win the day. Key the run game, tackle well in space, and don’t get killed in the curl-flats. Due to the matchups in this game versus last, I’d assume that last bit will be less of a problem since (a) Smith does not have the arm strength of Allen and (b) the Niners should be more comfortable mixing it up with man coverage. If we do that, expect Terry McLaurin to be moved wherever Dontae Johnson is, and expect Johnson to have some help.

McLaurin is the one dude you truly have to stop in their passing game, particularly between the 20’s. Once you’re inside the 10’s, he can still hurt you, but that’s when the focus turns to Logan Thomas, who—at 6-6 250 pounds—has 5 of their 12 receiving touchdowns on the year. On the ground, I’d guess Peyton Barber takes over for Gibson if he’s out with turf toe while McKissic is their third down back. If we can put any kind of pressure on Smith, and hopefully we can given their OL is better in the run game than in pass protection, we should be able to force plenty of check downs. 

Alex Smith doesn’t protect the ball as well as he has in the past—in fact his 4-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio is well below average. But his stats don’t tell the whole story. His leadership and intelligence have shown through during Washington’s winning streak, and after our showing on Monday, they’re sure to think they can hit our curl-flats as a replacement for some of the consistent yards that they lost with Gibson. This isn’t a team that’s afraid of dinking and dunking when they have to. After all, that’s largely how they just beat the Steelers. This could be a slog.

While I think this defense is for real—and their DL is definitely for real—there’s a chance they could be a bit overrated as of late. They’ve played exactly one team in the past seven contests with an Offensive DVOA in the top half of the league. That was the 15th-ranked Lions, who—even without Kenny Golladay—diced them up through the air while De’Andre Swift totaled 149 yards from scrimmage and a tug. Conversely, during that same time we’ve faced six teams (five in a row) with Offensive DVOA’s within the top 8.

Early in the season the Slurs seemed susceptible to the run—allowing 129+ rushing yards to five straight teams during their 5-game losing streak—but they’ve since allowed only two 100-yard rushing performances in the past five contests, both in losses. In fact, this is a team that is 5-0 when it holds the opposition under 100 yards rushing and 0-7 when it doesn’t. I do think we have a speed advantage so I’d expect the Niners to test the edges early in this game, both in the run, pass, and run-extension swing/touch pass game. In this matchup in particular, the speedy turf of Arizona’s stadium may come in handy. That is, if we can block and execute well enough to create runways for our backs and our receivers after the catch.

While finding some amount of success on the ground and keeping Mullens protected and comfortable will be necessary to be successful on Sunday, taking care of the ball is probably the most important variable on offense. Six straight games of 2+ turnovers is not sustainable, particularly not against a defense as stingy and an offense as plodding (but opportunistic) as Washington’s. 

Protect the ball, stay on schedule. There have been an unfortunate number of games that we’ve lost this year because we couldn’t do those two things with consistency. If we want to keep our playoff hopes alive, that will have to change on Sunday.

Go Niners 👍🏈