Free Agency Bonanza 2021

All un-signed [Michael Zagaris / Getty Images]

With the NFL’s tampering period just a week away, it’s time to dust off the old blog and jump back into all things Niners. This is a fairly huge off-season for both the immediate future and the Niners’ status in the NFL. The injury woes of last year were truly unprecedented so most knowledgable fans should be willing to give the Niners a mulligan, but truly elite franchises don’t have many down years, and if the Niners want to cement themselves among the NFL’s best they need a rebound year in a big way. 

While the past two years have featured nearly identical rosters, this year will feature large-scale turnover. Given our cap space we should NOT be expected to be major players on the open market, but we have 38 free agents to make decisions on and an expected ten draft picks come April. While the majority of our core will remain in place, the Niners’ highly-lauded locker room dynamic will be put to its greatest test in 2021.

After our Super Bowl run in 2019 we all knew what Lynch/Shanahan had built. Now comes the test of whether or not they can maintain it.

COVID Cap

Amazingly enough, the NFL hasn’t actually settled on their 2021 salary cap yet (end-of-year calculations are ongoing), but they announced mid-February that the 2021 salary cap floor will be $180 million—$18M less than last year’s cap but $5M more than the worst-case projection entering the season. 

In terms of available cap space, the Niners are technically around the middle-of-the-pack—with Spotrac estimating we have about $27.7M to work with. That said, given our large number of free agents it would be more accurate to put us more in the bottom third/quarter in terms of usable cap space. We’re far from the Eagles—who even after cutting Wentz loose are currently $39M OVER the cap—or the Saints—whose all-in push during Drew Brees’ final years has them $59M OVER—but the purse strings will be tight. Thus, nearly the entirety of this writeup will be focused on our own free agents, NOT outside additions.

Big-Ass Extension Watch

There are mainstays like Laken Tomlinson who may get their contracts restructured to free up more cap space, but there’s only one player expected to get a massive extension this off-season: Fred Warner.

After flashing as a rookie with lots of promise, becoming a team leader and coverage dynamo as a sophomore, and putting the whole package together in his third year in the league, Warner was—by any and all metrics—one of the best linebackers in the country last season. He led the team in tackles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions, was an AP First-Team All-Pro selection and was PFF’s highest-graded off-ball linebacker by a pretty considerable margin.

Since he was a third-round pick in 2018, that means he has one more year on his rookie deal and is now capable of negotiating a big-time extension. As a vocal team leader who was as important as anyone holding the squad together during an injury-ravaged season, he has more than earned it.

At the moment, Warner is set to count $3.4M against the cap, a massive bargain that was made only slightly less egregious based on built-in rookie performance scaling (his 2020 cap was $844K). Like Kittle last year, Warner’s later round bargain-basement salary means it’s near impossible to save cap space in the short term but the deal will certainly be backloaded to account for the massive cap spike next year.

The highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the league are currently Bobby Wagner ($18M/yr), CJ Moseley ($17.5M), and Zach Cunningham ($14.5M/yr). The first two deals were signed in 2019, while Cunningham’s was signed last year. Since Warner won’t turn 25 until midway through next season and already has a First-Team All-Pro nod under his belt, his combination of youth and lack of weaknesses means we shouldn’t be expecting a discount. By the time next season starts, he will more than likely be the highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the NFL.

Potential Cuts

There are two big names rumored to be on the chopping block, so let’s get their names out of the way now. David Lombardi of the The Athletic wrote a great in-depth article about these very two and their salary ramifications, but I’ll try and keep it short here.

Since joining the Niners in 2018, Weston Richburg has played in 28 of 48 possible regular season games. In 2018—when he played 15 games—he was largely ineffective after an early season injury. In 2019, he started out well before going down in week 14. He hasn’t suited up since, missing the entirety of 2020 and leaving a gaping hole along the interior of the OL that we were regularly reminded of throughout the season.

When Richburg was signed, he was given one of the wealthiest deals for a center in league history, but the majority of his guarantees wrapped up last season. He’s currently looking at a $11.5M cap hit in 2021 and a $12.6M hit in 2022, but if we let him go we’d only be on the hook for $7M total—his initial signing bonus prorated over his last two years. So letting him go would result in $4.5M in cap savings.

The second likely cut is Dee Ford, who was electric playing a fraction of snaps last year and a major catalyst to our defensive success in 2019. While he entered the year supposedly healthier than ever, he was shelved for the season with a neck/back injury after only the first week—making his availability in 2021 highly questionable regardless of the Niners’ decision on whether or not to keep him. Ford has a $20.1M cap hit for this upcoming season, and $21.8M hits for the next two. If we cut him, we’d be on the hook for the rest of his signing bonus, thus taking a $14.4M hit and freeing up $7.8M in cap space. But there is one major caveat to that.

This is probably as good a time as ever to break the bad news on Ford’s contract. While his contract—like many that Paraag Marathe and the Niners structure—features team-friendly opt out seasons on the back end of the deal, there’s a very unfortunate catch. Despite Ford’s history of injury concerns, his contract has hefty injury guarantees built-in through 2021. 

In short, if Ford CAN pass a physical by April 1st, we can release him for generic non-injury reasons and save $7.8M off our cap. If he CANNOT pass a physical by April 1st, his injury guarantees kick in and we’re on the hook for an additional $11.8M in dead cap. Meaning, in that situation we’d actually be losing $5.9M in cap space by cutting him. While there is always the possibility—with either Richburg or Ford—to designate them as a post-June 1st cut and prorate the dead cap hit over two years, that’s just kicking the can down the road.

While there are lots of fans who have grown frustrated with Ford and would like to see him gone, he’s been highly effective when available. Depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft shakes out, the best route for Ford could be to restructure his contract. You obviously can’t take guaranteed money off of a contract or the cap—you can only move it around. But—if Ford is amenable—converting his injury guarantee to a signing bonus and drastically reducing his base salary (ala Jerick McKinnon) could provide him time to rehab and potentially be a contributor again while lessening the blow on our salary cap.

Regardless of what happens with Richburg and Ford, it’s highly unlikely that either return to the Niners on their current deals. This is an area where the Niners can—and likely will—free up some cap space. The question is how much and what kind of holes would those moves make in our roster.

Already Signed

The Niners have already started re-signing some players, but given the cap situation, they’ve been limited to smaller deals—mostly with guys filling out the backend of the roster. That means a handful of these re-signings have been with Exclusive Rights Free Agents—young guys with zero, one, or two accrued seasons in the league who aren’t really free agents at all because the Niners can lock them up on the league minimum—and Restricted Free Agents—guys with three accrued seasons who can be offered a tender but can negotiate with other teams (if signed, the Niners can receive draft compensation).

Jeff Wilson was given a 1-year deal, which is the biggest move of note so far. I don’t think I’m the only one who believes the Raheem Mostert / Wilson backfield combo is our most productive and dangerous rotation. While both have dealt with injuries in the past, they both run very hard and fit the scheme perfectly. I know we like to believe that the Shanahan/Bobby Turner duo can create running backs out of thin air, but locking up Wilson is a less-publicized but crucial move entering this off-season. He’ll count just over $2 million against the cap—basically, he’s on a slightly discounted version of the lowest possible RFA tender in exchange for some guaranteed cash. That’s less than the second-round tender that we gave Matt Breida last year for a player who is currently much more productive (although we likely had aspirations of trading Breida when we made that tender). It’s a good deal.

The Niners followed that up with similar deals with Ross Dwelley and Marcell Harris just before the weekend. By committing to one-year deals, the Niners lock them into the roster but keep the cost lower than the lowest possible RFA tender—giving them cap flexibility, locking in contributors, and assuring each of them some guaranteed cash.

Dwelley was a crucial sub for us in 2019, playing vital replacement snaps for both George Kittle and Juice while they were out with injury. Harris went from a safety with some coverage concerns to a Will linebacker midway through last year—a brilliant move on Robert Saleh’s part that both allowed Jimmie Ward to roll down near the line of scrimmage and maximize his versatility and let Harris do what he does best—play forward in a physical manner—without getting too overexposed to bigger bodies in the run game. Both were coaching staff favorites and retaining them is a nice move towards maintaining depth.

Elsewhere, River Cracraft returns on an ERFA deal. After his short stint as a starting wideout in the COVID-depleted Packers game, he really established himself on special teams… Safeties Kyle Nacua and Jared Mayden return on ERFA and RFA deals, respectively. With Jaquiski Tartt potentially on his way out, they have depth potential beyond their special teams play (although we’d obviously like to stay healthy and not need to use them). The same can be said with cornerback Ken Webster, who just got a one-year deal… Staying on special teams, long snapper Taybor Pepper received a two-year extension, locking in our trio of specialists from 2020. RB Austin Walter—who you may remember as our undersized kick returner with a fullback’s number who had a single big “who the hell was that guy” catch-and-run against the Saints—was also brought back on an RFA deal. Jauan Jennings, who started his rookie season on the practice squad before a bad hamstring tear—is on a futures contract. Finally, Josh Rosen was signed to a one-year extension—giving the Niners three quarterbacks locked up for 2021—Garoppolo, Rosen, and Josh Johnson. If I had to guess, Rosen/Johnson will be expected to fight it out for the third quarterback role as the dust settles with whatever the hell is going on at that position (to be discussed in a later write-up).

“Free” Agents: ERFAs and RFAs

Doing his best Spider-man meme impersonation [Allie Goulding / TNS]

The dudes below have NOT been re-signed yet, and they get their own section because of how different ERFA and RFA free agency is compared to Unrestricted Free Agency. The deadline to offer players tenders is this weekend (Saturday, March 13th) so we’ll know right before the legal tampering period starts where we stand with them.

OL, Daniel Brunskill (ERFA): As a likely starter at either center or right guard in 2021, the Niners will be happy to re-sign him on the league minimum. The only reason they haven’t yet is likely because they’re not sure if they want to offer him something longer and lock him up on the cheap for more years. While we had tons of problems along the interior last year, those were largely not the fault of Brunskill. He didn’t emerge as a star by any means, but given the constant movement he was forced into both in training camp and throughout the season, it’s hard to say we know the book on Brunskill quite yet. I’m still bullish and expect him to hold down the starting position at either center or right guard in 2021. Being able to focus on just one of them through the summer and fall could be huge towards his development as a player.

CB, Emmanuel Moseley (RFA): With the RFA deadline coming before free agency actually begins, it will be interesting to see what level tender the Niners offer Moseley. Basically, a team can offer a tender that correlates with the level of compensation they’ll require if the tendered player signs elsewhere. Those tenders are first round ($4.7M), second round ($3.4M), and right of first refusal ($2.1M). The draft compensation amounts aren’t written in stone—Breida was given a second-round tender last year but we traded him for a fifth-rounder—but if I had to guess, Moseley will get a second-round tender. He’s played well for us, has some flexibility to play in the slot if need be, and we currently have none of our top six cornerbacks on contract. I’m an E-Man fan, I think he still has some untapped potential, and if we don’t tender him at a second-round level it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t get swooped up.

QB, Nick Mullens (RFA): Despite rumors that realistically won’t end until Jimmy G wins (at least one) Super Bowl, my money is still on Garoppolo being our starting quarterback at the beginning of 2021. That said, there is next-to-zero chance that the Niners aren’t trying to improve the backup position. While Rosen and Johnson both have contracts for next year, there’s at least a shot that neither make the active roster and Mullens returns. Helping Mullens’ case is the fact that Rich Scangarello—the former-now-current-again 49ers QB coach who liked Mullens out of college—is back on staff. That said, if Mullens comes back I would expect it to be in the form of a late free agency return, not on an RFA tender. The Niners’ goal seems to be to add a brand new backup (potentially one who can be a starter down the road), and Mullens doesn’t seem to fit into that equation.

The Jets Connection

This is an odd year to have a lot of free agents for a number of reasons, but one of them is because of the coaching staff that Robert Saleh has amassed in New York. By bringing both his own defense and Shanahan’s offense to the Jets—who have the second-most cap space in the league at $82M—Saleh has made East Rutherford a natural landing spot for any of our free agents.

This has its benefits and its drawbacks. I’d love to retain Kerry Hyder, but if he leaves for an over-market contract from the Jets that would give us a nice comp pick in return. Likewise for Richard Sherman (although due to his age, that comp pick would be maxed out as a fifth-rounder). Overnight, the rebuilding New York Jets have become a nice landing spot for any free agents who we may not be prioritizing and an opportunity for us to net nice comp picks in return.

But there’s a big flip side to that on the back-end of our roster. In most years, guys like Ronald Blair and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Dontae Johnson, would be slam-dunk returns in 2021—playing important depth roles on veteran minimums. Now, there’s at least one other potential suitor for their services and that suitor has way more spending power and is much more desperate for known locker room contributors. The Jets connection could give us marginal returns in compensatory picks, but it could also gut (or at least create mini bidding wars for) the back-end depth of our roster.

Tier 1 Free Agents

Pancakes on the menu, 24/7 [Giantswire]

Ranked based on priority to get them re-signed, NOT overall talent (although to get into this tier, you’re gonna really be able to ball at a high level). These are our top priority targets to lock up on new deals. If one of these guys were to depart, it would drastically affect the way we approach free agency and the early rounds of this April’s draft.

LT, Trent Williams

Williams returned from his Washington Racial Slurs-incompetence-based sabbatical in impressive fashion, creating highlight clips that were equal parts frightening and hilarious en route to playing at an All-Pro level. With a 91.9 PFF rating, Williams was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated offensive tackle (regardless of side) and is sure to be the Niners free agent with the most outside interest. While the off-season began with tons of optimism that Williams would be re-signed before hitting the open market, he now seems interested in testing his market value. While I’d still say we have a better than 50/50 chance of retaining him—he should know as well as anyone the drawbacks of taking more money to join a franchise with issues—there will be teams with more cap space (some of them even good teams) who will be willing to outbid us.

So what would it cost to retain him? The COVID Cap makes free agency salary projections a near-impossible task this year. The only thing we really know is that all but the most cap wealthy teams are going to backload their cap hits out of necessity. But we can try and estimate what retaining Trent Williams could look like.

The three highest-paid tackles in football are David Bakhtiari ($23M/year), Laremy Tunsil ($22M/year), and Ronnie Stanley ($19.75M/year). However, there is reason to believe that Williams—despite his play—will not necessarily be resetting the market. The three players above were age 29, 25, and 25—respectively—at the time that they signed those extensions. Trent Williams will be 33 before the 2021 season starts. That, in addition to his lengthy injury history, should depress his salary just a little bit. Spotrac projects his average annual salary at $18.2M, which would put him just over Lane Johnson as the fourth-highest paid tackle in the league. That would be totally fine by me.

Why He’s So Important: Did you see Justin Skule last year? Williams is an All-Pro at one of the most important positions in football and the depth behind him is one giant, glaring question mark. Even with Shon Coleman’s return from a COVID opt-out, we have zero evidence that the left tackle position has even a serviceable long-term starter without Williams in the fold, and his leaving would immediately change our entire free agency and draft plans. 

Williams also presents the rare combination of size and athleticism that makes our running game hum at the tackle position. He’s one of the most athletic tackles in the game and pairing him with Mike McGlinchey in the run game means we always have a shot to pound the rock against anyone. 

It’s also worth noting that Williams’ age—like Sherman and Emmanuel Sanders before him—means that his comp pick return would max out as a fifth-rounder, even if his salary would dictate otherwise. In most situations, if a top-tier player left for a massive contract we could at least have consolation in the third-round comp pick we’d be receiving in return. Not so in this case, and that makes retaining Williams even more important.

Potential Replacements: The draft. 

There are not a lot of guys who can do what Williams can do and the few big-name tackles who could be available aren’t really what we’re looking for. Taylor Moton will likely be re-signed or franchised by Carolina, and—as a guy who some thought would have to shift to guard due to athletic concerns out of college—he’s likely not a great schematic fit. Daryl Williams is similar—a big guy who is more of a right tackle. With both players under the age of 30, they’ll likely not come cheap, and paying a premium for a downgrade at tackle would be a tough pill to swallow.

Entering the draft with a glaring hole that you need to address early is not a good place to be, but if we are forced to find another tackle, the silver lining is that this is a strong class for them. There could be upwards of a dozen tackles taken in the top 100 picks of the draft and taking one of those guys on the first two days (potentially with the #12 overall pick) would be our best path forward if we miss out on re-signing Williams.

CB, Jason Verrett

Verrett was the unsung star of last year’s defense, not only because of his miraculous return from basically three straight seasons(!) wiped out by injury but because he allowed us to offset our dwindled pass rush with a greater variety of backend coverages: namely, he could play man coverage really well.

Verrett’s versatility was a big part of our continued transition away from the Seattle 3 system—even with what became a rotating door of corners starting opposite him. He finished the season as PFF’s 8th-ranked cornerback and allowed us to play a secondary-down style of defense for large swaths of the year in a way that even a healthy Richard Sherman wouldn’t have allowed us to get away with.

But in terms of guestimating what his next contract will be… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Unsurprisingly, there is zero salary precedent for a player at a premier position, who was an All-Pro on his rookie deal, who then got hurt and played in only six games over four years(!), who then returned to Pro Bowl form shortly before his thirtieth birthday.

Verrett’s age helps give him priority over Sherman but isn’t exactly a selling point to other teams. Unsurprisingly the biggest red flag for him—both in terms of what we offer and what others do—is his lengthy injury history. While he looked excellent last year, it’s impossible to tell from the outside looking in whether this is a lucky blip of health or the end of an incredibly unlucky stretch of the opposite.

Verrett has talked publicly about how much he appreciated how the Niners have treated him and handled his rehab—in particular how they convinced him to sit last year to get fully healthy—and how that will be beneficial for the good guys come free agency. In a perfect world, he’d like to retain the training staff who helped build him back to his Pro Bowl level of play and comes back to the bay. And if other teams are scared off by his injury history and are only willing to offer short-term “prove it” deals, why would he leave?

If he re-signs with the Niners I’d be looking at a deal that avoids putting us in the situation where we are now with Dee Ford. Likely something heavily incentive-based with modest guaranteed money. We want to reward the guy when he plays well, but we’re really starting to feel the cap pressure from the big-ticket injury flameouts who we’ve acquired through the years (Malcolm Smith, Pierre Garcon, Richburg, etc.).

Why He’s So Important: Verrett gets the nod over Sherman due to his versatility, age, and (recent) availability. As every color commentary person repeated ad nauseam throughout the back half of last season, we have zero cornerbacks signed for 2021, thus making the position of utmost importance. And while Moseley is likely back, and we could benefit from the returns of guys like Ahkello Witherspoon and Dontae Johnson for depth, letting both Verrett and Sherman walk would make outside cornerback a major roster hole.

Potential Replacements: We’re about to figure out how much the Niners really want to prioritize the cornerback position and whether or not their mindset has changed with the evolution of their defense the past year. Cornerback is like left tackle—a high-paid premium position in a year where we’re strapped for cash—and in some ways Verrett’s FA mirrors that of Williams’. 

If Verrett walks, it’s hard to see us pursuing someone in free agency with a contract that will likely be close-to or greater-than Verrett’s asking price. We’d likely prioritize the re-signing of both Witherspoon and Johnson—plus Tim “much-hyped-by-me-but-will-he-ever-play” Harris will (theoretically) see legitimate snaps in 2021—but we’d also have to look to the draft.

Similar to our situation at left tackle, the bright side is that this draft is strong at cornerback, with a number of long and very athletic types populating the middle of the first round of most mock drafts. A year ago I’d say the Niners would NOT draft a first-round cornerback unless they’re the next coming of Jalen Ramsey, but perhaps that thinking has changed. If Verrett leaves, we’ll find out sooner than we would have liked.

Tier 2 Free Agents

The Harvard Difference [Tony Avelar / AP]

These are key contributors who we’re already engaging in talks to re-sign. While losing one of these guys wouldn’t necessarily create massive changes in our early draft plans, their roles would definitely have to be filled with new blood.

Juice / Kendrick Bourne

I’m clustering these two guys together for reasons that will become slightly more clear later

Both Shanahan and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels love Juice and the feeling seems mutual.

That’s an OC right there! pic.twitter.com/SHm0LmgjYY

— Kyle Juszczyk (@JuiceCheck44) January 18, 2021

That said, there was a ripe market for Juice last time he was a free agent (the Niners blew up the fullback market to get him and were supposedly the second-highest offer that he got), and with so many people running some iteration of Shanahan’s offense these days, it’s hard to imagine that interest has waned.

Juice had a few stellar performances last year (see: New England) but was far less consistent than in 2019. While I’m willing to attribute some of those issues—particularly on combo edge blocks—to miscommunication and lack of chemistry with younger players, if you’re paying a fullback 140% of the salary of the league’s second-highest-paid fullback, you want to see the results daily. This is especially the case if the debate is between re-signing Juice or rolling with a replacement-level fullback and re-signing Kendrick Bourne. 

KB has steadily improved each year, has slippery length and consistency (even despite drops) that is nice to have in a position group that has seen a lot of turnover over the years, and—like Juice—clearly wants to return to the Niners. The interest is mutual, but it begs the question: how much do you pay a guy who is clearly the third wideout and the fourth receiving option for an offense? If I had to guess, I’d look somewhere in the Cordarrelle Patterson-esque $3M-$4M range?

Why They’re So Important: The major differences between Shanahan’s offense and all of its offshoots are (A) Shanahan’s is more complex (and better), and (B) he commits more to running the ball with an extra blocker (and the play fakes which that unlocks). Clearly, that second part is where Juice comes into play. If we don’t have plus fullback play, the offense needs to shift considerably, and I don’t think we (nor Shanahan) want that to happen.

An alternative option that’s been floated around is that the Niners could go further away from the two-back sets of 21 personnel and invest in another tight end. While the idea of Kittle and someone like Florida’s Kyle Pitts is certainly intriguing, the fullback and tight end are not interchangeable (not even in this offense), and while extra gaps in the running game from double tight has its value, a fullback in the backfield allows for blocking action to both directions of the formation and sucks in defenses more horizontally, thus opening up more space for slants and chunk plays in the quick game outside and in the short alleys. I’m not saying it can’t work (see: Gronk/Hernandez Patriots), but I am saying that it has its limitations (see: 2019 Ertz/Goedert Eagles). And that it doesn’t seem to be what the Niners would prefer.

As for KB, he is both our most steady receiver (in terms of availability) and our best in the red zone. He’s an underrated blocker (yes, it does ACTUALLY matter in the Niners’ scheme) and can play any and all of the different positions out wide. While a No.3/4 option is often a roster slot filled with a journeyman type, due to injury concerns in the position group I’d argue KB is more valuable than your standard No.3 wideout.

Potential Replacements: What becomes of Juice and Bourne also depends largely on what we have behind them. Because while the potential fill-ins have intriguing potential, they are very VERY green.

Juice’s heir apparent is Josh Hokit, a second-year player who was a do-it-all type for Fresno State, but—as a practice squad fullback—someone who we clearly don’t really know anything about. That said, we’d likely be saving at least $5M in cap space starting Hokit on a rookie minimum versus Juice—who is likely going to garner at least slightly more than the $5.2M AAV of his previous deal.

Who would replace KB is equally as complicated, but for slightly different reasons. I may write up something later on Kyle Pitts and how he may be able to fill multiple roles for our offense in the unlikely situation that we select him, but KB’s role would likely be filled by some combination of Richie James and whoever can emerge un-injured between Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings. Despite the tantalizing size, versatility, and athleticism of what Hurd could be, it’s hard to put all your eggs in a basket whose missed his first two seasons due to injury. Likewise for Jennings, who hasn’t even played in a preseason game and whom we know isn’t the athlete Hurd is. There’s also Travis Benjamin, who’ll be back on a one-year deal after his COVID opt out, but he’s more of a depth/journeyman type and doesn’t provide the RZ value that we covet. Ultimately, replacing KB would likely involve diving into another deep class of wideouts, even if having a starting lineup of wideouts all on their rookie contracts is far from ideal.

Tier 3 Free Agents

This could have something to do with those trade requests that aren’t actually requests [Michael Zaggaris / Getty Images]

We want these guys back, but it’d be a luxury more than a need. Their primary replacements could already be on the roster, with additional players being brought in to back them up.

DE, Kerry Hyder

Hyder was another savior of our defense last year, getting signed on a paltry contract to play a backup role before being thrust into the starting lineup in week two and repositioned as the team’s primary edge rusher. While he lacks the quick twitch and bend of someone like Dee Ford, the idea of Hyder lining up opposite a healthy Nick Bosa is hugely intriguing. If money were no option, he’d be higher on this list, but he has likely played his way out of re-signing with the Niners. The only reason I’m even including him on this list is because (A) if something falls through with Trent Williams we may have added space to be used on someone like Hyder and (B) the pass-rusher market is overflowing with talent this off-season, which could depreciate Hyder’s value.

If the latter occurs then perhaps Hyder agrees to another short-term, moderately paid season in hopes of getting a big payday a year from now. While I entered the off-season convinced he was gone, I very well might be wrong. The book might not be out on Hyder quite yet (NFL.com didn’t have him on the list of the NFL’s top 101 free agents of 2021). If so, I’d be happy to take back Hyder on a modest deal.

The absolute worst-case scenario is that we get priced out of a one-year rental. As in, we don’t have the money for a mid-level deal so he takes one on another team in hopes of catapulting another good season into a post-COVID windfall. That scenario would mean we get minimal compensatory pick return and that a stopgap team would be reaping the benefits a year later, rather than us.

Potential Replacements: There are a lot of intriguing names out there, but it’s hard to place which ones would land in our price range. If we’re outbid on Hyder then we can safely say we’re outbid on all the Shaq Barrett / Matt Judon-type guys and likely the tier beneath them as well. There’s a chance we could hope for a market-based discount on a potential lateral move like Shelby Harris or roll the dice on one-year wonder (with first-round pedigree) Haason Reddick. Regardless, I would assume our plan at DE is to wait out the initial movement, find value once the dust settles, then draft a speed rusher.

DT, D.J. Jones

Jones is a big body who moves like a considerably smaller one. While he’s been hampered with injuries and didn’t have the breakout campaign that many would have hoped last year, he’s been a plus contributor for the past two years and has played in 27 of 32 possible regular season games during that time. He’s also the only actual nose tackle-type that we have on the active roster. Given that he’s probably more valuable to us than elsewhere and likely doesn’t have the body of work to net a big payday, I’d expect us to be able to retain him at a reasonable rate. If not, it’s certainly a position we’ll attempt to fill on the cheap. The arrow’s pointing up for both Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens, but we need a real nose to pair with them on early downs.

Potential Replacements: If D.J. departs, his primary replacement is likely already on the practice squad. Darrion Daniels was getting some training camp love last season and ended up seeing playing time in four games down the stretch of his rookie season. Was he prepared for that playing time? No, not really. But he’s a massive nose tackle body with enough quicks to project as a contributor along the DL and should only improve with an actual off-season and preseason under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek. 

Slot CB, K’Waun Williams

On pure talent alone, Williams would be higher up on this list, but the nature of the position and the market means re-signing him is slightly less pressing. As nickel corners often are, K’Waun Williams has long been an underrated talent. While he wasn’t as splashy last year and was—like everyone else—limited by injuries, he’s been one of the better nickel corners in the league for the past few seasons and has been healthy for 43 of 48 games with the Niners leading up to last year (when he missed eight contests). Our nickel corners are important starters and active edge defenders / rushers. 

Potential Replacements: Depending on what happens on the outside, Emmanuel Moseley has played in the nickel before. While it doesn’t seem to naturally fit his physical profile, he’s a smart dude and would certainly be able to make it work. Jamar Taylor played well in Williams’ stead, but he’s a UFA and unfortunately tore his ACL mid-season, so it’s tough to know if/when he’ll be back. An external candidate of interest would be the New York Jets’ Brian Poole. Good players on bad teams are often a prime candidate to get undervalued on the market and Poole’s been one of the better nickel corners in the NFL for quite some time. That said, with Saleh in the fold there, it would be hard to see them letting Poole go if they believe he fits the scheme that they’re implementing. His availability may be based on whether the Jets are trying to avoid any major contracts so that they can commit to a multi-year rebuild or not.

Tier 4 Free Agents

As mentioned earlier, Richard Sherman is basically out the door already and has largely stated as much publicly. We should be wishing all our free agents well, both for their contributions to our team and community and because the more they get paid the better draft returns we receive. Sherman’s potential return caps out as a fifth-rounder, but we’d be happy to take that if he can find one more big payday.

If the oft-injured Jaquiski Tartt returns it would likely be late in free agency on a bargain deal. He’s a good player, a vital communicator, and is still on the right side of thirty, but his injury concerns are simply too great, and the Niners will likely be looking to see if they can maximize Tarvarius Moore’s tremendous physical gifts in the last year on his rookie deal.

Given what will likely be a slim market for their services and our need at the position, I’d happily take back Ahkello Witherspoon, Dontae Johnson, and (depending on his rehab) Jamar Taylor. Even if we don’t have continuity amongst starters, having backups who know what they’re doing is crucial. LB Joe Walker’s return likely hinges on what our roster looks like in terms of specials after the draft as special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was not tendered last week.

Along the DL, Ziggy Ansah is likely a walk. I’d love to take back Ronald Blair on a one-year contract if his knee is right. Again, this could be a chance where Saleh—a vocal Blair fan—could poach one of our guys, but with snaps available opposite Bosa and a rehab team that he’s accustomed to, Blair has plenty of reasons to stay. He could be the 2020 version of Kerry Hyder (aka the 2018 version of Ronald Blair). Dion Jordan and Solomon Thomas likely are who they are at this point, but depending on how the rest of our DL shakes out that could be enough to find a rotational position. The draft capital we traded for Jordan Willis (a 2022 sixth-rounder for him and a 2021 seventh-rounder in return) is low enough that we could cut ties with him and not regret the trade, but I’d expect the team to bring him back through the off-season and training camp to see if they can untap his potential.

Along the OL, I wouldn’t expect Tony Bergstrom, Tom Compton, or Hroniss Grasu to return, but I’d welcome back Ben Garland if he’s recovered from injury. He’s no world-beater in pass protection but he is a really good run blocker and a Garland/Brunskill combo on the interior would already make me feel better than last year.

In the backfield, Tevin Coleman and Jet McKinnon are likely walks—with the Niners’ third running back job going to JaMychal Hasty—who flashed for a bit before people realized he was always cutting back and would never bounce anything—Austin Walter, and/or a late drafted/undrafted rookie. 

Trent Taylor was fully supplanted by Richie James midway through last year. He’s probably played his last snap as a Niner. If Jordan Reed returns or not likely depends in part on his interest in playing. He returned last year because of his relationship with Shanahan and his belief that this team could compete for a championship. While I continue to be extremely bullish on the Niners, the path looked a lot clearer a year ago and it’s TBD whether or not he wants to put his body on the line for another year. Lastly, CJ Beathard was clearly the better of our backups by the end of last year, but I expect the Niners to make a move on the outside to shore up that position.

That’s next time.

Go Niners 👍🏈