Week 15: @ Cowboys

You know it’s bad when you recognize this as a meme

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys (4-9; 4th in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/20
Location: Arlington, TX
Kickoff: 10:00 AM PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

What was once tabbed for the Sunday night game has since been un-flexed into an innocuous 10 AM start on CBS, punishment for the underwhelming play and massive injury lists accompanying both these squads. Like us, the Cowboys have a legitimate claim that injuries have thrown off their preseason expectations. Unlike us, these Dallas Cowboys are genuinely not a good football team. But coming off their most impressive win of the season—a 30-7 drubbing of the Bengals—and with a 2-2 record since their bye week, they can at least make the claim that they are no longer a terrible one. And that’s enough to make this a ball-game.

INJURY REPORT

While there’s still nothing official, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is likely out for this week and probably the rest of the season… by Thursday, Daniel Brunskill (shoulder), Fred Warner (stinger), Raheem Mostert (ankle), K’Waun Williams (ankle), D.J. Jones (ankle), and Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring) were all limited participants in practice. From most-likely to least-likely, I ordered that list as a pure guess as to the likelihood that each of those guys plays… George Kittle’s (foot) practice window opened this week. While he was involved in routes and other activities by Thursday, it is highly highly unlikely that he plays this week. Depending on what happens on Sunday both in our game and around the league, it may make the most sense to shelve him for 2021… Colton McKivitz was put on the COVID list earlier this week. That combined with Hroniss Grasu (knee) not practicing Thursday and Ben Garland (ankle) not likely to return at all this year makes for gigantic question marks along the interior. Even if we’re assuming Brunskill plays, could we see the first of CFL practice-squadder Dakoda Shepley?… finally, updates on the status of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) are still vague, but at the moment he’s probably not coming back this year.

OFFENSE

Probably (hopefully) not an in-game photo? [Aaron Doster / AP]

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is a holdover from the Jason Garrett regime, and it’s widely believed he’ll be a head man in the NFL sooner rather than later. There’s naturally some debate as to whether Moore is truly a whiz kid who was hamstrung by a head coach on his way out—which was ironically the exact same label applied to Jason Garrett when he was under Wade Phillips a decade ago—or simply a competent pilot of an offense with a sizable talent advantage. 

Regardless, the pure yardage totals paint a favorable picture of his ability. Despite finishing last season 8-8, the Boys had the 2nd-best Offensive DVOA in all of football under Moore’s tutelage and exploded out of the gates this year—putting up over 500 yards of offense in three straight games—before cratering as injuries to their quarterback and offensive line depleted this star-studded unit. Since then, the Cowboys have at least plugged the most glaring holes in their sinking ship, and Dak Prescott has made himself a lot of money.

In the four games that Prescott played and finished, he averaged 422 yards passing, completed a career high 68% of his passes, threw for 9 TDs vs 3 INTs and rushed for an additional three scores. While the Boys were 1-3 in those games (and really should have been 0-4 if not for an absurd onside kick), the offense was not primary culprit.

Here are Dallas’ splits this year when Dak started and finished the game compared to when any other quarterback was under center, with rankings compared to the current season-long averages across the league.

If you’re wondering who edged them out for last place in three categories, it’s obviously the Jets every time

Other than the running game and turnovers (Dak did lose three fumbles on top of his three picks in those first four games), the offense absolutely cratered after Prescott went down. But losing their quarterback wasn’t the only problem. 

Their unreasonably stacked offensive line has also been ravaged by injuries. Pro Bowl right tackle La’El Collins sustained a hip injury in the preseason and has yet to play a snap. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith—of “my arms are so huge I need to wear knee braces on them” fame—played only two games before being shelved the season with a neck injury. Rookie center Tyler Biadasz went down in week 8 and has yet to return. And even All-Pro guard Zack Martin—who has finished in the top 5 or better in PFF rating in all seven of his NFL seasons and was moved to tackle out of desperation following the bye—has been out since week 12. What’s left from what has long been considered one of the top offensive lines in football are the two Connors—McGovern and Williams—who are still holding it down rather well at the guard positions. Unfortunately, they’re now starting journeyman and former-Niner Joe Looney at center and while their situation at tackle has improved from its nightmarish status earlier in the season, it remains far from an offensive strength.

Running behind this line is Ezekiel Elliott, one of the best backs in the game but one who’s in the midst of an off-year. As the offensive line has slowly gelled and the team has re-committed to force-feeding him touches, Zeke has improved, and he can still turn would-be 2-yard gains into 5- and 6-yard ones with his blend of size, athleticism, and burst. But that’s only when he finds a crease and those creases have been hard to come by.

With the OL decimated due to injury, the real depth of this offense is in its pass-catchers. Amari Cooper will drop some balls, but he’s a great route runner who excels after the catch. The slender and acrobatic rookie CeeDee Lamb has been impressive as a rookie, even if his numbers dropped off significantly after Dak went down. Michael Gallup continues to fill the mercurial “that guy” position opposite their No.1–a spot long held down by Terrence Williams which can be best described as “I don’t really know if they’re that good or not but they do make a handful of big plays each year.” Dalton Schultz is a reliable option at tight end. Even Cedrick Wilson doesn’t suck.

But getting these talented skill players the ball continues to be a major challenge for this Cowboys offense, which is helmed by the ghost of Andy Dalton and an offensive line that struggles tremendously to protect him. To be fair, the Boys spent the bye week recommitting to: (A) protecting the ball—with 4 turnovers over the last four games after 20 over their first nine—and (B) finding more creative ways to get their playmakers in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts and a passing game that has embraced lower volume and shorter completions as to protect their suspect tackles.

The Boys were a dumpster fire entering their bye week and spent that time off committing to protecting the ball—with four turnovers over the last four games after twenty through their first nine—and finding more creative ways to get their playmakers the ball in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts, as well as a passing game that has embraced lower volume and lower risk—a style that better fits the demeanor of Andy Dalton.

These adjustments—along with a healthy Dalton—have resulted in the Cowboys putting up 370+ yards of offense twice in the past two weeks, while their recent 30-7 win over the Bengals marked their biggest margin of victory this season (their previous three wins came by a combined total of 7 points). This is an offense that has a couple glaring weaknesses but has at least settled into an identity over the past month, even if that identity is a far cry from the explosive monster they were to start the season.  

DEFENSE

This year’s had a whole lot of this [DallasCowboys.com]

Former 49ers head-man Mike Nolan was brought in as the Boys’ DC this off-season. This despite the team understanding that they didn’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, the front office lacking the patience and/or commitment to adjust to that scheme, and Nolan being given the orders to “run a multiple scheme with 3-4 elements.” That’s gone about as well as you would have expected.

After struggling mightily to start the season—allowing an average of 431 yards and 36 points over their first four games—Nolan quickly switched to a “simpler” scheme in hopes that the Cowboys would perform a bit better, but that hasn’t amounted to much.

This Cowboys defense, which was recently known for its dangerous and deep defensive line and young stars at linebacker, is now a shell of its former self. Their moves along the defensive line have largely backfired. They dumped a rarely-used Kerry Hyder to clear space to add Gerald McCoy to a three-year $18.3M contract, a deal which—as McCoy has yet to play this season—has since been dissolved on injury settlement but only after doling out of all of its guaranteed cash. They then added the XXL version of Aldon Smith, a move which looked brilliant when he blew up at the beginning of the year—totaling four sacks in a single game and at once point having the top pass-rush win rate in the league—but an extra 40 pounds, five years off from football, and way too many snaps have gassed him out down the stretch. While DeMarcus Lawrence is still an absolute stud, he’s been the only one holding it down on this once feared defensive line.

In the back seven it doesn’t get much better. While the Boys returned the large majority of their linebackers and secondary from last year, the play of both units has plummeted across the board. Once again, I will preface the below chart of PFF ratings with the caveat that their grading system is far from perfect, but when it comes to massive outliers on large sample sizes, trends can be telling. And this chart of grades from the Cowboys’ back seven players in 2019 versus 2020 has a very obvious trend.

At linebacker, the hyper athletic duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch are just two years removed from being considered one of the best linebacker duos in the league—finishing 6th and 5th respectively in PFF grading for their position during the 2018 season. Now they look lost as Dallas’ D gets gashed on the ground. While in the secondary, this was never a true lockdown crew, but it was a largely functional one. That’s barely the case anymore.

You don’t get dips in play across the board—and double-digit drops for six of nine of your major contributors—without something being foundationally wrong. It would be one thing if this was meant to be a transition year, in which the Cowboys were cleaning house to go young and bring in guys who fit the 3-4 scheme, but since management and coaching can’t really agree on where they should land schematically, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or at least, any light that retains this defensive staff beyond this year.

MATCHUP

With Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder giving us a massive advantage on the edges, the Cowboys will likely try to attack the interior of our run defense with an assortment of quick plunges as well as the kind of baby draws that the Bills used early in week 13. While their OL play has been better in pass-protection than run-blocking, this isn’t a team that wants to get into many clear passing downs, so keeping Zeke’s runs to 2- and 3-yard gains versus 6- and 7-yard ones will be key.

While Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback and one of the better backups in the league, he’s still a lesser version of the same guy whose been a mediocre-at-best starter for at least the past three years. With their offensive line intact, that could have been enough, but in the Boys’ current state the Niners should look to confuse Dalton, take away the layups underneath, and mix-up pressures on passing downs. This is not a Cowboys team that can survive if forced into a high-volume passing game, so that’s exactly what we should push them into.

Offensively, whether it’s CJ Beathard or Nick Mullens, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, we need to protect the football and RUN THE BALL. The Cowboys have the 27th-ranked defense in rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards in the league (2,115 yards) as well as the worst yards/carry average (5.1 ypc). With us trotting out our second or third quarterback and with many weapons missing, they’re sure to load the box and will likely send extra bodies on blitzes so that their guys can focus on running, chasing, and hitting rather than reading and reacting. That means misdirection in the backfield and picking them apart with play action, RPOs, and the short-to-intermediate game will be key to keeping the Cowboys honest. Last week, we had plenty of open looks against a stout defense and a dominant defensive line, but we simply couldn’t connect. This week, against a much-lesser defense, there’s truly no excuse.

Go Niners 👍🏈