QB Carousel 2021

TLDR; here’s your likely starting QB in 2021 [Kyle Terada / USA Today]

Despite it being a COVID cap year with a draft class that is loaded at the position, this off-season has seen more quarterback movement than any in recent memory. With so much of our fanbase clamoring for change at QB, and John Lynch himself admitting that—while Jimmy will be our starter in 2021—they’ll at least try and shore up the backup spot to insulate themselves from injury, I figured it would be a good time to take a look at the moves made this off-season, the prices that were paid to obtain new quarterbacks, and a few potential routes the Niners could go to add talent to the position group.

Market-Setters

Gangly -> Stocky [Getty Images]

As discussed ad nauseam, changes in rules and advances in offensive schemes have made the quarterback position more important than ever before and—unsurprisingly—the price tag that comes with obtaining a top-flight QB has mirrored that shift. If we’re excluding the draft—which we’ll get to later—there is no reliably cheap way of obtaining an above-replacement level quarterback in the NFL, and many teams have already learned that this spring.

Jared Goff to the Lions

Traded: Matthew Stafford
Received: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks

It’s hard to imagine Goff doing all that well in Detroit, whose sixty-year rebuild continues under the guidance of a new coach already internet famous for his likeness to The Dude and his cannibalistic introductory press conference. But while Dan Campbell’s track record is short enough that it’s hard to tell what will come of his tenure, it’ll be interesting to see what they do offensively. Seeing as he was the former tight ends coach for New Orleans and brought along one of their defensive assistants to become the DC, the clear hope is that the Lions become “The Saints Midwest,” but a quick passing game based on lightning-fast progressions isn’t exactly where Goff has excelled on the NFL level.

Realistically, this trade wasn’t about Goff though. Taking on a massive contract from a franchise who seemingly hates first-round picks was the only way the Lions could net two first rounders for their former prodigal son, and this move points even clearer to a rebuild. In terms of draft capital, this was absolutely as good as they could do. But in committing to an additional first-round pick they’ve also committed to locking up salary space that could be going to other foundational positions. His 2021 salary is fully guaranteed as of tomorrow, and cutting him would create massive cap hits of $43.5M in 2021 or $15.5M in 2022. Even if the Lions draft a quarterback in the top ten of this April’s draft, they’ll be paying Goff’s salary through 2022 at least—which could wind up meaning they’ll be doling out cash for two years of a lame duck quarterback.

Matthew Stafford to the Rams

Traded: Goff, 2021 third round-pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks
Received: Stafford

On the flip side is a Rams team that’s going all-in on chasing their current championship window. I’m a Stafford fan, and the fact that the Rams were ditching Goff’s contract in this trade made compensation nearly impossible to predict, but this seemed like an overpay. However, if Stafford actually puts the Rams over the top, the price will obviously be worth it. While on paper they now seem comparable to the Bucs as the team-to-beat in the NFC, a few legitimate questions remain.

First off, can they repeat their defensive success from 2020? In the NFL, elite-level defense is much harder to replicate year-to-year than offense, and the Rams have lost both their whiz kid DC to the team across town and their unoriginally-named-but-underrated safety John Johnson to the Browns this off-season. Secondly, there was always a lazy narrative that any time the Rams offense did poorly it was Goff’s fault and any successes were because of McVay. With Stafford in the fold, it’ll be tough for McVay to continue skirting the criticism that has mostly been heaped on his former quarterback the past four years. I’ve regularly stated that I believe the Rams’ more-simplistic version of our offense gives it a solid floor but limits their high-end against strong defenses, especially those who have time to prepare. Perhaps Stafford will allow them to break through that ceiling. Perhaps it’s just the deal that they’re comfortable with, hoping instead to win on the back of a more balanced squad.

Carson Wentz to the Colts

Traded: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 conditional second-round pick (likely first-rounder)
Received: Wentz

I’d also consider this an overpay, in part because of how little leverage the Eagles possessed. Despite making a head coaching change in part with hopes of salvaging Wentz’s Eagles tenure, it was made abundantly clear early-on in this offseason that the former signal-caller still wanted out. With that information out in the open and Wentz’s contract bonus schedule including $59M(!) in dead cap money if the Eagles couldn’t move him by tomorrow (March 19th) but wanted to let him go, they should have had little-to-no bargaining power in trade negotiations. Sure, the Eagles could have dug in and refused to move Wentz, but with one of the worst cap situations in the league and Wentz holding nearly $35M in cap space, the Eagles never would have risked gutting their team to keep a player who didn’t want to be there and who could sit out the season and just demand a trade again the year after.

There’s also the incestual coaching connections that make this an even weirder deal. The Colts’ former OC just went to the Eagles in hopes of retaining Wentz with the exact same scheme that the Colts run, but now the Eagles are willing to part with Wentz? Sure, as discussed above, he was demanding a trade, but… you have to get at least a sense that you’re buying rotten goods here. Wentz is leaving a system to go to the same system and the Colts are trading with a guy who knows their team just as well as they do. It’s all a little weird. 

All that said, while the compensation was too much in my mind, I actually think this is the best fit for both Wentz and the Colts—who are ripe with cap money and teetering on the edge of true contender status. If anyone can salvage Wentz its Frank Reich, who has done a marvelous job with quarterbacks since taking over in Indy and was the primary coach behind Wentz’s near-MVP season. If you’re the Colts you can tell yourself that Wentz can become that same player and that he’s the missing piece that they’ve been looking for while overlooking the fact that his MVP season included a lot of unrepeatable off-schedule metrics, that he’s clearly digressed since then, and that the Eagles as a team always played much better and harder when anyone else was under center. The fit is great, the player-coach combo does have a real shot, but I wouldn’t have parted with more than a second-rounder for Wentz given the circumstances.

Dak Prescott re-signed with Cowboys

Traded: Cap space
Received: Jerry Jones’ bragging rights

The Cowboys’ injured signal-caller signed a four-year $160M deal with a league-record $95M guaranteed at-signing. Needless to say, the sticker shock’s pretty unreal here, especially for a quarterback coming off a major leg injury. While I’m not sure Dak is a truly elite quarterback, he was playing the best ball of his life (other than turnovers) in the first four games of the season and the Cowboys’ offense fell-off dramatically once he was injured. Some knock him for failing to win more games, but we’ve heard that before with (checks notes) literally every single Cowboys quarterback since Troy Aikman. Despite the tremendous amount of talent on offense, winning big with the Cowboys has proven to be very difficult over the past two decades and I’m not sure that equating Prescott with that losing is any fairer than doing the same with Stafford and the Lions. Ultimately, the Cowboys gonna Cowboys until further notice.

Dak seems like a good dude and a strong locker room presence on a team that likely needs one. I’m probably higher on him than most, but would I pay this much money for his services? Absolutely not, especially since he’s a mobile player coming off a gruesome leg injury. But the longer this contract saga went on, the more a big-ass deal became apparent. This was a Jerry Jones special. At some point, the narrative around their negotiations became a personal challenge of contract chicken and a threat to Jones’ perceived image of himself as someone who treats his players right. The best way to get the super rich—especially those like Jerry Jones—to do exactly what you want them to do is to say that they won’t do exactly that. It was almost comical how clearly and cleanly that unfolded here. Good for Dak for getting paid.

Trade Candidates

Watson, every time he hears Cal McNair talk

If we’re giving up genuine draft capital for a veteran signal-caller, I would hope it’s for someone who we believe is our starter as soon as this year. I won’t spend a lot of time on this category because none of the options seem all that likely (but we can sure as hell hope for one of them in particular to come to fruition). 

Teddy Bridgewater: We apparently kicked the tires here, but not sure where this gets us. I don’t actually think Bridgewater is better than Jimmy G and—despite playing all of last season—he’s just as injury-prone. The idea of giving up draft capital for him is questionable at best.

Sam Darnold: I don’t hate Darnold and think he could be in line for the patented post-Adam Gase leap, wherever he winds up. That said, there are two major red flags to acquiring him: (A) he’s just been poorly coached for too long and has too many bad habits to fix at this point or (B) he’s not yet beyond repair but that’s in part because he’s missed so many games due to injury that he hasn’t had the playing time to cement those issues. Obviously, if either (or both) of those red flags prove legitimate, obtaining Darnold would be a terrible move despite his mobility, improvisational skills, and youth (23). 

It’s also worth noting that—although Darnold is very young—the idea of saving on a “rookie contract” depreciates greatly over time. People like to pretend like we’d still be saving a ton of money rolling out Darnold instead of Jimmy G, but the money we’d save would be minimal. In 2021, the Jets will absorb his signing bonus so he’d cost a meager $4.7M against the cap, but in 2022—his fifth-year option year—he’d cost $18.9M, and after that he is either a big enough upgrade that we dime him out or things didn’t work out and we gave up draft capital. 

There’d also be some Carson Wentz-Colts vibes that would make this a bit tricky. If the Jets staff—who have largely come over from the Niners and that includes our former passing game coordinator—gets a close look at Darnold but don’t like him as a fit, then why should we? In a world where we’re much more desperate and Jimmy G was NOT returning in 2021, I’d be more interested in a trade for the potential of Darnold. But in this world, where Darnold would come over as a backup tasked with winning the job this year or walking/becoming the NFL’s most expensive backup (other than Nick Foles) in 2022, it’s hard to come to a compensation amount that would seem intriguing for both parties.

Russell Wilson: Not happening. Even if he gets traded there’s no way it’s in-division.

Deshaun Watson: Clearly the best candidate on the board, there has arguably never been a quarterback this young, proven, and talented who has been available for trade. And to this point that remains true because the Texans have—at least publicly—nixed any and all thought of trading their franchise quarterback. 

Deshaun has teased us with social media movements and—most recently—leaked reports that his desired destination is either the 49ers or Broncos. While a move will seem unlikely until it actually happens, there are a few factors that give Watson some leverage here. He’s young and well-compensated enough that he can afford to sit out this season if he wishes, the amount of punishment he’s taken throughout the years could actually help lengthen his career with time off, and the trade clause in his contract means that he won’t be going anywhere he doesn’t want to. If shit were to truly hit the fan and Houston’s recent missteps and longstanding record of old white dudes being old white dudes has led Watson to force their hand into a trade, a move could happen anytime between the days leading up to the draft and after the 2021 season. Or, it might not happen at all.

For now, we can only dream.

UPDATE: And now there are multiple lawsuits pending against Watson, so… 😬

Veteran Backups

Not gonna happen but at least I get to post this photo [Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP Photo]

There is almost zero chance we don’t make a change at the backup position this off-season and John Lynch has basically said as much publicly. We could draft someone high to sit for a year, draft someone lower to sit for (at least) a year, and/or pickup a veteran backup option. We’ve all seen how we falter with sketchy play behind center and how even replacement-level QB play can make a drastic difference (and almost certainly would have gotten us into the playoffs this year despite all the other injuries). 

While we can always add one on the cheap later, if the Niners DO NOT add a veteran backup entering the draft that’s as clear a sign as any that their plan A would be to address the position with a rookie. But if the Niners DO add a veteran QB, I don’t think that shuts the door on them drafting another QB anyways. Many backup QBs get brought in on short-term deals, and unless we’re planning to trade up for a guy who can play significant snaps right away, having a veteran backup in addition to a rookie would provide injury assurance if Jimmy were to go down, add another veteran voice in the QB room to help a rookie, and give the Niners flexibility on taking a “redshirt” quarterback come April. Plus, the Niners like to roster three quarterbacks and make one inactive on gamedays anyways.

NOTE: These names have been flying off the shelves, so almost all of them are no longer available. Regardless, I’ll provide my takes below. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: SIGNED WITH RACIAL SLURS. Fitzmagic is a clear stop-gap/bridge/mentor type for a younger quarterback who still has the juice to start a few games if need be. If we were all-in on drafting someone (like the Slurs clearly are) then this pickup would work nicely, but with a veteran quarterback on roster who would start over him, the pairing doesn’t make a ton of sense for a dude who wants to start a few more games before he retires.

Alex Smith: While nostalgia looms, Smith wouldn’t be a great fit for many of the same reasons his replacement in Washington isn’t. While Smith is known as one of the best locker room presences and veteran tutors for rookie quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes’ dad has said the lessons his son learned under Smith as a rookie were invaluable to getting him to where he is now), Smith is likely looking for a starting position and not a locker room where he is a second or potentially third option.

Jameis Winston: No.

Mitchell Trubisky: This is a name that’s only been floated around recently and the fit is interesting. As easy as it’s been to poke holes in Trubisky’s game over his first four years in the league, he finished last year (sort of) strong after an early-season benching and certainly has physical tools. Do I think he’s a long-term starter in this league who has just started turning the corner? No, not really. Would I take him on a moderately-priced backup deal? Sure, why not. But the price tag of those two roles varies dramatically and where he believes he falls on that spectrum could write him off as a candidate before any legitimate talks.

Jacoby Brissett: SIGNED WITH DOLPHINS. Believe it or not, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy G both have the same number of career NFL starts (32) and bringing in Jimmy’s former backup would mean adding a smart, well-liked, and athletic quarterback who can more than hold his own in spot starts if needed. While he’s young and has more high-end potential than Fitzpatrick or Smith, I don’t really see Brissett as a long-term starter in this league, particularly in Shanahan’s offense. This is mainly because—despite playing for two very quarterback friendly offenses in the Patriots and the Colts—Brissett has never been particularly accurate, completing just under 60% of his throws in his career.

Brissett’s physical skillset may align better with a handful of rookie signal callers who we could target (Wilson/Lance/Fields), which makes the idea of signing him more intriguing, but that kind of roster move would make little sense. Next season, the Niners would surely rather start Jimmy G over a veteran or rookie in their first year in the offense, and even if the Niners were to shift to more mobile QB sets, they would have no idea who is available in the draft to fit that mold until after the initial free agency period—when Brissett will surely be signed.

Andy Dalton: SIGNED WITH BEARS (to start?). Probably the most likely of the candidates, Dalton should have more left in the tank than his first snaps with the Cowboys indicated. Once he got his sea legs under him, he was very much a lesser version of what he’s been for the majority of his career. As a guy who’s just old enough (33) and average enough to perhaps be settling into a sustained backup role, a Dalton signing would give a reliable veteran presence behind Jimmy G who could maintain that backup role (whether it’s behind Jimmy G or a younger player) for years to come.

Draft Options

Running over defenders and up draft boards

It’s rare that I’m all that interested in more than one or two quarterbacks in any given draft class. In fact, there was a four-year span in the mid-2010’s where I only liked one or two quarterbacks total. But this year seems like a potentially massive outlier. While I won’t pretend that all of these quarterbacks will be good or that they’ll all be drafted high, we could easily see five or even six signal callers taken in the first round. I’ll try to go in-depth on these guys later (as well as take a look at some potential later-round pickups), but until I can sit down and watch some film, here are my initial thoughts. 

Trevor Lawrence: He’s going #1. We’re not getting him and there’s not even a reason to talk about him.

Zach Wilson: I’m a big fan and am bummed that his stock seems to have skyrocketed since I made my interest in him public back in September. He’s got tremendous arm talent, makes plays off-script, throws from an absurd number of arm slots with ease and is said to be a hard worker who is diligent in the film room. While it seems like most people have him as the #2 QB in this draft, there’s still a chance I guess.

Justin Fields: Super productive player with high potential, but I have some concerns. He’s seems to be a really good team leader—which already separates him from former Buckeye Dwayne Haskins—but like Haskins, he plays in a scheme that runs very few concepts and throws to wide open five star wideouts. Fields’ legs may actually be more useful in the NFL—he’s bigger and faster than people think—and he showed great accuracy last year, but his arm talent is a notch below the rest of this tier and he hasn’t yet shown the ability to regularly process quickly and anticipate throws. That can often be a dealbreaker in the NFL.

Trey Lance: Basically a crypto stock, Lance will only be twenty at the time of the draft yet could have the best physical tools of any QB in this draft. However, his experience red flags are basically unheard of. He was insanely productive in just a single redshirt freshman year as a starting quarterback (his sophomore year was COVID canceled except for one game), winning every game he started, scoring 42 touchdowns and throwing zero picks despite hucking the ball down the field a lot, winning the D-1AA Heisman, and being named the MVP of the national championship. The downside? He didn’t play against a single D-1A opponent and has 17 career starts. At 6’4 225 pounds with an absolute cannon for an arm, a GPS-timed top speed comparable to many wideouts, and a reputation as a hard worker, he’s my favorite realistic target in this draft IF the Niners are impressed by him in the interview process. Do I understand the significant bust potential? Yes.

Mac Jones: Even with my reservations with Fields, I’d be totally cool with the Niners drafting any of the above names in the first round. I can’t say the same for Mac Jones. I’ve seen enough Bama quarterbacks to know not to jump on this hype train. While I like Jones more so than any former Tide QB not named Tua, the protection, supporting cast, and scheme he ran in college meant he was rarely pressured or tasked with NFL throws. For instance, in the national championship game I only saw one throw that stuck out based on its NFL traits—where Jones quickly went through his progressions to find an open man in the endzone on a shortened field—yet Jones threw for 464 yards and five scores in that game. There are some empty calories in those stats. I understand that Tom Brady and Joe Montana both came out of college without the best arm talent and have made themselves into first-ballot HOF’ers, but the physical traits alone would make me pass on Jones in the first round and I wouldn’t be shocked if his rising stock is more of a push from “draft pundits” than actual NFL personnel types. 

As for now—despite the clamoring of much social media—it’s still incredibly likely that the Niners starting quarterback in 2021 is Jimmy Garoppolo. If he can stay healthy, that’s something I am perfectly fine with. But if he can’t, we should have better options than we did last season.

Go Niners 👍🏈