Wk14: vs. Intolerance

Totally established in 1932. Definitely not a few months ago when FedEx threatened to pull their sponsorship

Opponent: Washington Racial Slurs (5-7; T-1st in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/13
Location: Glendale, AZ (lol)
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Don’t look now but—despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—this team doesn’t suck. In fact, with a record equal to ours, tied in first in the NFC East, and having won three in a row, Washington—fresh off a not-that-surprising upset of the then-undefeated Steelers—has a ton of momentum right now. And perhaps even more impressive, the two men at the core of their turnaround—a QB who nearly lost his leg to sepsis and a head coach who just beat cancer while in-season during a pandemic—have made Washington—again, despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—a decently likable team as well.

INJURY REPORT

Deebo Samuel missed practice on Wednesday but was expected to be back Thursday. With the way he plays, I feel like he’s destined to be on and off the practice field throughout his career. He should be good-to-go by Sunday... Tom Compton had a head injury during last week’s game. That in conjunction with the concussion he sustained a few weeks back during walk-throughs (can’t make this up) means Colton McKivitz is likely to get his second start and will have to play major minutes... Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams are both questionable to return this week. While the Slurs’ passing attack is far from devastating, getting either back would be a big boost in the nickel... no word yet on Ben Garland’s return. Which means it’s not likely to be on Sunday.

OFFENSE

#11 in your programs, only one of those digits in your hearts [Nic Antaya/Getty Images]

Alex Smith is awesome. This offense is not. 

While Smith brings a high-level IQ and “don’t fuck it up” competency level that last year’s first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has yet to show in the NFL (thus leading to his benching), a 36-year-old Smith, coming off 17(!) leg surgeries, who hasn’t played in two years, is obviously not lighting up the scoreboard. Nor are they asking him to.

Smith has been shelved since midway through 2018, but he hasn’t missed much in terms of the offensive revolution in Washington. They’re not the “run the ball, throw a checkdown on third-and-long, punt” offense of yesteryears, but their raw production is probably pretty similar. In terms of DVOA, they’re the 27th-ranked offense, 30th-ranked passing attack, and 17th-ranked rushing game. While they’re certainly the least explosive offense we’ll face the remainder of the way, those rankings undersell this offense at least a tiny bit in that they play strong complementary football with their defense and do an excellent job of not beating themselves.

The Slurs lean on their offensive line—which is strong across the board but especially on the interior—and their backfield duo of Antonio Gibson—the rookie size-speed sledgehammer who may miss the game with turf toe—and JD McKissic—2020’s variation of the scat back rando who Alex Smith makes PPR relevant with his proclivity for check downs. But this isn’t Jimmy Raye “run-run-pass” territory, the Slurs actually throw the ball the 7th-most on first down—leaning heavily on the short-to-intermediate game—as they understand they lack the horses to get out of third-and-longs with regularity.

That’s because out wide they only have a single legitimate weapon. That’s Terry McLaurin, the highly-polished second-year wideout who has more targets this season than the Slurs’ next four top-targeted wideouts combined. Outside of him they have the on-again, off-again contributions of tight end Logan Thomas, who—as a former quarterback—is a poor blocker but is their only size threat in the red zone. All the other wideouts suck. Some have some athletic potential. Some may develop. But right now, they are at best replacement level players.

Their entire offensive game plan is to set up third-and-manageable, get as many first downs as possible, and win the field position game to set up the clear strength of this team: their defense.

DEFENSE

Draft Capitallllll [Inside the Star]

Ron Rivera’s hiring was labeled a slam dunk by many, if not all, media pundits. Not only because he brought stability, discipline, and likability to a franchise that was severely lacking in all of the above, but because many believed his 4-3 defensive prowess would immediately transform the Racial Slurs into one of the best D’s in the business. And it has. Despite their issues on offense, this unit is currently ranked 4th in the country in Defensive DVOA.

It starts up front, where Washington has invested as much draft capital as we have on the defensive line. Chase Young (2020 - 2nd overall), the jewel of this year’s draft, has performed as well as expected, his arrival coinciding with the second-year emergence that Montez Sweat (2019 - 26th overall) was due for as he grew into his frame. Former Alabama teammates Jonathan Allen (2017 - 17th overall) and Da’Ron Payne (2018 - 13th overall) man the inside, while Ryan Kerrigan (2011 - 11th overall) and Tim Settle (2018 - 5th rounder) fill out the rotation. This is a unit that can at least make the claim of being the top defensive line in the nation and currently ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate. 

Behind them, they have an underrated linebacker corps, which largely excels in coverage. Cole Holcomb looks like he may have been a find in the 5th round of last year’s draft. He does everything well, especially against the pass while Kevin Pierre-Louis has issues moving forward but is strong in coverage as well. If there’s a weak spot it’s likely Jon Bostic, who I’ve never really thought was all that good but is clearly doing something right as he’s started 73 games over the past 7 years (albeit on 5 different teams) and is their full-time Mike. 

In the secondary, Ronald Darby, a year after absolutely tanking his value with by far his worst season during a contract year, has returned to form opposite Kendall Fuller, while their two backup safeties—Kamren Curl and Deshazor Everett—have largely outplayed the injured starters they replaced. They benefit from the havoc that the front four creates, but they’re a formidable unit in their own right.

MATCHUP

Defensively, if we win the line of scrimmage—particularly on the interior—we should win the day. Key the run game, tackle well in space, and don’t get killed in the curl-flats. Due to the matchups in this game versus last, I’d assume that last bit will be less of a problem since (a) Smith does not have the arm strength of Allen and (b) the Niners should be more comfortable mixing it up with man coverage. If we do that, expect Terry McLaurin to be moved wherever Dontae Johnson is, and expect Johnson to have some help.

McLaurin is the one dude you truly have to stop in their passing game, particularly between the 20’s. Once you’re inside the 10’s, he can still hurt you, but that’s when the focus turns to Logan Thomas, who—at 6-6 250 pounds—has 5 of their 12 receiving touchdowns on the year. On the ground, I’d guess Peyton Barber takes over for Gibson if he’s out with turf toe while McKissic is their third down back. If we can put any kind of pressure on Smith, and hopefully we can given their OL is better in the run game than in pass protection, we should be able to force plenty of check downs. 

Alex Smith doesn’t protect the ball as well as he has in the past—in fact his 4-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio is well below average. But his stats don’t tell the whole story. His leadership and intelligence have shown through during Washington’s winning streak, and after our showing on Monday, they’re sure to think they can hit our curl-flats as a replacement for some of the consistent yards that they lost with Gibson. This isn’t a team that’s afraid of dinking and dunking when they have to. After all, that’s largely how they just beat the Steelers. This could be a slog.

While I think this defense is for real—and their DL is definitely for real—there’s a chance they could be a bit overrated as of late. They’ve played exactly one team in the past seven contests with an Offensive DVOA in the top half of the league. That was the 15th-ranked Lions, who—even without Kenny Golladay—diced them up through the air while De’Andre Swift totaled 149 yards from scrimmage and a tug. Conversely, during that same time we’ve faced six teams (five in a row) with Offensive DVOA’s within the top 8.

Early in the season the Slurs seemed susceptible to the run—allowing 129+ rushing yards to five straight teams during their 5-game losing streak—but they’ve since allowed only two 100-yard rushing performances in the past five contests, both in losses. In fact, this is a team that is 5-0 when it holds the opposition under 100 yards rushing and 0-7 when it doesn’t. I do think we have a speed advantage so I’d expect the Niners to test the edges early in this game, both in the run, pass, and run-extension swing/touch pass game. In this matchup in particular, the speedy turf of Arizona’s stadium may come in handy. That is, if we can block and execute well enough to create runways for our backs and our receivers after the catch.

While finding some amount of success on the ground and keeping Mullens protected and comfortable will be necessary to be successful on Sunday, taking care of the ball is probably the most important variable on offense. Six straight games of 2+ turnovers is not sustainable, particularly not against a defense as stingy and an offense as plodding (but opportunistic) as Washington’s. 

Protect the ball, stay on schedule. There have been an unfortunate number of games that we’ve lost this year because we couldn’t do those two things with consistency. If we want to keep our playoff hopes alive, that will have to change on Sunday.

Go Niners 👍🏈