Racial Slurs 23, Niners 15

Yurp [Niners Wire]

Back by popular demand... The Eagles Game 2.0!  

What’s that? You hated that game? Well too bad, this is the world we live in. 

In a game where our defense held Washington to 193 yards of total offense and three field goals, the 17 points allowed off turnovers—two on giveaways returned for touchdowns—were the difference in yet another hideous battle with a current NFC East leader.

OFFENSE

The big keys heading into this game were to control game flow and prevent costly turnovers. You could MAYBE argue that we kind of accomplished one of those. But not really. In an all-too-familiar case of deja vu, we massively out-gained our opponent in terms of yardage (344-193), but lengthy cold stretches and turnovers trumped whatever successes we had.

Believe it or not, this was nearly the exact same offensive output we manufactured in our last win against the Rams (345 yards of offense, 16 offensive points, 3 turnovers), but it sure felt a helluva lot worse in a loss against a (now) six-win team.

Hamstrung again. There’s nothing concrete yet, but it seems likely that Deebo’s latest injury—a hamstring strain on the very first play from scrimmage—will shelve him for the rest of the year. Hamstrings are fickle, and if sitting him now will increase the chances of a healthy hammy next year, we shouldn’t think twice—even if the thought of what our offensive output may look like without him paints a grim picture.

Last year we found out pretty quick what our offense looks like without Kittle. This year, we can add on what it looks like without Kittle AND Deebo. Obviously, it’s not pretty.

Utilizing so many position-less skill players presents us with some obvious advantages in terms of matchups and what we like to do schematically, but if it has a drawback it’s that the more unique a player you have, the harder they are to replace when injured. With his very first touch going for nine yards on a handoff, it was clear that Deebo was going to be a big part of our game plan. Just as it was equally clear the second he pulled up gimpy that we’d have no means of replacing his role once he went down.

While Deebo’s intangible benefits and knack for flash plays are fairly obvious to see, I think people really underestimate his pure statistical impact as well. The fact that Deebo wasn’t an immediate full-time starter last year and that he plays such a unique hybrid role in our offense often means he’s left out of discussions about the league’s top young wideouts. So I decided to tabulate some splits that better show his box score impact.

Here’s a list of the many receivers drafted in that 2019 class who have established themselves as full-time starters, but only including games where the wideout plays at least 50% of the team’s snaps. While this doesn’t change the math for guys like Metcalf, McLaurin, and AJ Brown—guys who were full-time starters from day one—it gives a fairer shake for players like Deebo and Diontae Johnson who grew into full-time roles and may have been knocked out of games due to injury.

I’ve included Deebo twice on this chart, first showing his raw stats for any game where he played over 50% of offensive snaps and second presenting his numbers from the first Seattle game of 2019 on (SEA+)—when his snap share jumped from 59% over the first seven games to 82% the remainder of the way. While I believe that run of games more accurately compares him to his peers, as you can see below, his figures are impressive either way:

Aside from games and touchdowns, Deebo leads or is close-to-leading the class in every statistical category. This despite consistently sharing looks and operating in a run-heavy offense that’s been missing its starting quarterback for the majority of 2020. He out-touches guys in wide-open, pass-heavy offenses like Metcalf and Johnson. His yardage is on par with or better than dudes who are undisputed No.1 and No.2 options in McLaurin and A.J. Brown.

In short, Deebo fuxxxx. While we missed him in this game and will miss him for the rest of the season if it comes to that, we need to do whatever it takes to get him as healthy as possible moving forward because he is an absolute foundational piece to the long-term plans of our offense.

Runnin on Empty. We started the game with wide open sets and empty looks that gave Mullens clearer coverage reads, both to settle in our quarterback and to soften up the defense for the running game. Initially it kinda worked, with a promising opening drive fizzling out in Washington territory after a contested drop and a touchdown drive that included 40 yards on the ground coming soon after. 

However, this plan fizzled out rather quickly, and our next eight(!) offensive drives ended in either punts or turnovers before Juice scored early in the fourth. While the commentators seemed to point to the idea that Washington’s defensive line suddenly “turned it on,” there were opportunities to be had, even with a clear trench disadvantage. We didn’t seize those opportunities because of too many mistakes, penalties, and sacks putting us in down-and-distances that we simply haven’t been able to convert all year.

Plus, there was one fundamental problem…

Issues in the Mid-Game. One of the many issues with shaping an offense around a specific quarterback and that quarterback no longer being available is the fact that the offensive scheme has been built around the missing quarterback’s strengths. Not the backup’s strengths. And Mullens and Jimmy G are very different quarterbacks.

Here’s a breakdown of Mullens’ passing stats, separated by the depth of the intended target on each play. I broke the passes down into these three categories because I wanted to differentiate between RB shoot routes, play action leak outs, and screens (<3 yards) versus our short-to-intermediate game (4-13 yards) and finally our longer-developing passes down the field (14+ yards).

Jimmy has never excelled at throwing vertical routes, but we have seen him have success throwing routes like deep outs, wheels, and post-curls—all throws that would land in that intermediate-to-deep range of 14+ yards down the field. However, where we’d expect him to really do well is in that middle range—those 4- to 13-yard completions—where his quick diagnoses, lightning-fast release, and plus underneath accuracy can all shine. As for “<3 yards,” every quarterback in the NFL would be expected to be decent at those.

But here are Mullens’ splits in this game: 

Of note, on his pick six, Mullens was looking at a 5-yd in initially (which was open) before moving over late to the swing route that got returned the other way

In his defense, he was under duress for much of the game and those five drops could have easily been eight (I didn’t include drops where contact from defender came at the same time as the ball). However, in everyone else’s defense, the Niners leaned towards easy completions and short game specifically because they knew the pass rush would be a problem, and a handful of those drops were on late, high passes over the middle, which—for a wideout—is basically a death sentence. 

Ultimately, Mullens seems to be at his best when he’s allowed to see things develop, which means those 10-20 yard completions on post-curls, comebacks, and the like—all routes that we oscillate between lacking the time to protect or the personnel to execute. He’ll show flashes of being able to get the ball out quick underneath (see: Giants game), but overall his timing and accuracy are too up-and-down to sustain drives while relying heavily on those kinds of plays. Unfortunately, those are the kinds of plays we’ve built this offense around and the kind of plays we have the talent upfront to regularly protect.

Again, the struggles we had in the short-to-intermediate game weren’t all on Mullens, and this game was certainly the greatest exaggeration of the differences between him and our starting quarterback. But occasional linebacker blindness aside, Jimmy G could get this offense humming because (when healthy) he was money on those quick-hitters. Mullens it seems, will never be that kind of player. If we had more healthy weapons and he was in an offense that emphasized different concepts, that might not be such a big deal. But this year, in this offense, with who we have available, it has been absolutely that.

DEFENSE

While the opponent should certainly be taken into account, this was one of our defense’s finer performances in a season when we’ve had quite a few. The 193 yards allowed were a season-low and our first time holding a team under 200 yards of offense this season (for reference, we held an opposing team under 200 yards of offense FIVE times last year), while the Racial Slurs’ scoring drives spanned 29, 13, and (right after Fred Warner got hurt) 72 yards. Even when they were scoring, they weren’t exactly instilling a ton of confidence.

Of the 13 offensive drives Washington had, nine ended in punts or turnovers, and seven were three-and-outs, including the last four in a row. This was a dominant performance. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough.

Clamps. Despite entering the game without our top three options at nickel corner, Washington didn’t really have the manpower nor the creativity to exploit our clear weakness. As expected, our secondary was very comfortable rotating through coverages—including plenty of man—and while the Slurs had some sporadic success throwing to their backs after Fred Warner went down, Dre Greenlaw’s impressive third-down stop to give our offense the ball late in the game was a prime example of the immense speed of our linebacker corps.

Alex Smith looked off from the outset—the calf injury was potentially something he’d been dealing with leading up to the game—while Dwayne Haskins… looked like Dwayne Haskins. The result was a passing attack that combined for 15-of-32 passing attempts for 108 yards and one pick. The longest pass they completed on the day went for 13 yards.

Our coverage wasn’t overly complicated, but it is worth pointing out an interesting sub-package that we employed a few times, typically (if not entirely) on third downs.

Here we’re in a dime package with Witherspoon subbing in as our fourth corner. However, instead of Ward and Moore playing in their traditional deep safety roles, Ward has slid into the nickel, Witherspoon has entered as a boundary corner, and Sherman has dropped back into a safety role.

Even if they only run Cover 2 man out of this look (I didn’t comb closely through the film, but that was the coverage they played the few times I saw it), this change-up makes sense for a number of reasons. First-off, it allows you to slide Jimmie Ward down near the line of scrimmage, where he’s excelled the past few weeks; secondly, it gives you a smaller, quicker player in Ward to work as your primary slot with K’Waun, Taylor, and Moseley out with injury; finally, it allows Sherman to use his intelligence in space as a safety—a role which many in the league think he’s destined for sooner rather than later—while preventing him from being out-quicked or out-ran by younger wideouts while in man coverage.

We talked about how Dontae Johnson being forced into the nickel may have made the Niners wary of dialing up too much man coverage against Cole Beasley and the Bills last week. While Dontae would still play in the slot in this set, he can now line up on a bigger target rather than a quicker one—with Ward taking the lead slot receiver—and the Niners still have the ability to go man without worrying about a potential mismatch due to injury.

Interior Re-design. With DJ Jones out due to injury and Kevin Givens gone due to COVID protocols after traveling home for the birth of his daughter on Wednesday (congrats!), there was some concern entering this game that the combination of Kentavius Street and UDFA Darrion Daniels would have some issues with Washington’s interior running game. 

Rather than pile too much responsibility on Street and Daniels—who combined for 48 of 63 possible defensive snaps—the Niners opted to rotate their hybrid defensive ends inside more often, which gave Dion Jordan a season-high 49 snaps as the next man up on the edge. The re-made defensive line did just fine. It may not have been spectacular, and the Slurs did have some success on the ground in the second half, but 47 of their 98 rushing yards came on the drive where Warner got hurt. After that adjustment period both our defensive line and our new linebackers settled in and helped the Niners close out the game (defensively at least) in impressive fashion.

So… where does this leave us? Most likely, it leaves us in the unenviable no-man’s land between stumping for better draft position and sneaking into the playoffs. We are now two full games behind the Cardinals—the seventh seed in the NFC if the season ended today—and playing catchup behind teams like the Vikings and Bears. 

With three games to play, it’s certainly still possible to catch the Cardinals—especially since we play them in two weeks and they must still face the Rams in week 17—but any discussion about us sneaking into the playoffs starts with winning out. And then getting a decent amount of help. 

Go Niners 👍🏈