Draftables: Trey Lance
Great football name, greater physical tools
Trey Lance is largely considered the most difficult evaluation among quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. I’d tend to agree, in part because I haven’t been able to find any All-22 film of him! Therefore, this breakdown is going to be built mostly off of (sigh) broadcast cut-ups. That means there are a few things—like route combinations and the ensuing progressions and anticipation paired with them—that I just won’t be able to see clearly.
Oh, well. Let’s give it a shot anyway.
*Shoutout to whoever the hell zzLIAMzz11 is on YouTube because I lifted 90% of all the game footage I watched from his uploads (marked with the ZZ logo in the clips below). You the real MVP 👌
![One day he’ll be able to legally drink [Sam Wasson/Getty Images]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1618794150026-9KTG5CH8LPUCDVMQ43X6/Lance.jpeg)
One day he’ll be able to legally drink [Sam Wasson/Getty Images]
Ht: 6-4
Wt: 224 lbs.
Age: 20(!)
School: North Dakota State
Stats
Build: Basically the physical prototype of a modern quarterback, Lance’s 6-4 224 pound frame may actually fill out more, as he will be only 20 years old (!) by the time the draft rolls around. For all you math majors—that means that Lance wasn’t even born when Tom Brady was drafted, and—unless he sees a precipitous fall on draft day—Lance will be the first person born in the 21st century to be drafted into the NFL. Yes, we are that old. 👵🏻
Experience: Lance has two major knocks on his game and this is one of them. While he’s been the Bison’s starter for the past two years, NDSU’s entire fall season (except for one game) was delayed until spring due to COVID. Thus, Lance has only 17 college starts under his belt. This is actually the same number as Mac Jones, but due to the Bison’s level of play—they’re FBS and Lance has never faced an FCS school—and the fact that Lance only played a single game of football in the past calendar year, the lack of starts is a bit more concerning.
What is NOT concerning is Lance’s absurd production. As a redshirt freshman, Lance threw for 2,786 yards and 28 scores on 66.9% completion percentage, rushed for an additional 1,100 yards and 14 scores on a healthy 6.5ypc (remember, this includes sacks as they’re counted against rushing yards in college), and had ZERO(!) interceptions. This while leading the Bison to an undefeated national championship season and winning the Walter Payton Award given to FCS’ top player. He was 19 at the time. Lance finishes his college career 17-0 as a starter and 32-0 including his redshirt freshman year. After he left school to prepare for the draft, the Bison lost their very first game of the spring season by 24 points.
Injuries: Lance had a “lower body surgery” in the spring of last year to address something from high school (I know it’s vague, it’s all I got), but it didn’t affect him come fall and he seems plenty durable. Similar to how Auburn used Cam Newton, the Bison (pronounced BI-Zuhn for some reason) often used Lance as their defacto fullback on inverted veers and quarterback powers. He is the rare quarterback who can threaten both as a short-yardage runner and with big runs down the sideline. Granted, I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to regularly use your quarterback as an interior runner in the NFL, so like other dual-threat quarterbacks before him, Lance will need to learn when to avoid taking unnecessary hits.
Scouting Report
Bombs Away: When we talked about Zach Wilson, we compared his arm talent to Mahomes or Rodgers, but that was more in regards to the ability to improvise and throw off-platform. While Wilson has plenty of arm strength, the pure velocity that the ball fires out of his hand isn’t on par with the two names above. Lance on the other hand will have an arm that is as good as anyone in the league’s from the second he steps into an NFL locker room. Kid has a hose-and-a-half.
The ball absolutely launches out of his hand on underneath passes with tremendous velocity…
Yet he also shows the natural touch to throw catchable deep balls over defenders.
*If you’re wondering why three of those four clips are incompletes, let’s just say Lance wasn’t working with the best receiver corps in Fargo, North Dakota. More on that later. In general, the cut-ups for this write-up aren’t particularly eye-opening as only a handful show anything that broadcast cameras don’t. That said, I would highly recommend checking out the highlight video at the top to get a sense of his pure physical talent. If we go with Lance we’re going for the upside.
I don’t like to spend too much time on pro day workouts cause you’re literally throwing scripted against air, but since we don’t have any All-22 film and Lance couldn’t play except for one game in the fall, I’ll include this embed here.
Lance’s ability to put the ball anywhere on the field is tailor-made for today’s NFL.
Dual-Threat: Given his rushing stats, it should come as no surprise that Lance is an excellent athlete. While his athleticism is harder to gauge against FCS competition and it would have been nice to see him run the forty-yard dash during the pre-draft process, GPS tracking during the 2019 FCS Champ game clocked him at 21.54mph on the touchdown scamper that kicks off the clips below.
That time would have been good for 12th-best in the NFL last year and definitely seems faster than he truly is, that at least validates some of his speed. He has good burst and is faster than you think, but also runs with a ton of power and is hard to bring down.
As has been the warning given to Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and every other dangerous dual-threat quarterback, these are not the kind of collisions we want to see in the NFL. But it is nice to see that he has the strength to escape sacks in the pocket and can lower a shoulder when need be.
Work Ethic / Experience: I know I already touched on Lance’s experience, but I wanted to elaborate just a bit more. His lack of games played and passes thrown has a lot of evaluators frightened because quarterback is typically a position where guys with fewer college starts do worse once they get to the NFL.
Quarterbacks like Dwayne Haskins and JaMarcus Russell—who narrowly beat out future seventh-rounder Matt Flynn for the starting gig entering his final year at LSU—are just two examples of one-year starters who quickly flamed out in the league. That said, Blake Bortles, Josh Freeman, and Josh Rosen all started upwards of 30 games in college and none of them panned out or were “pro ready” as they entered the NFL. Conversely, there was another dude in Haskins’ draft class with even fewer college starts (Kyler Murray), and he seems to have turned out alright.
In the 2017 draft I compared one-year starter Mitch Trubisky—who was getting tons of draft love over accomplished long-time starters DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes—to a dude at a bar with a beard. He may have the shittiest jaw line ever, but since you haven’t yet seen it, you just pretend it’s not a problem and hope for the best. The same goes for quarterbacks with only a single year of film. It’s easy to ignore the warts because you haven’t yet seen them on tape while propping up what’s missing from their game by saying the quarterback “will get there with time.”
Ultimately, the red flag of “lack of experience” is both the worry that a prospect will be bypassing important developmental steps as well as the fact that you have less evidence to make a decision on whether they can take those steps once they reach the NFL. Teams adapt to quarterbacks after having an off-season to look at film and figure out tendencies (just ask Freddie Kitchens-era Baker Mayfield), so everyone wants to see that second starting season to take out some of the guess-work from their evaluations.
All this to say, experience is absolutely a red flag for Lance—both in the number of games he played and the level of competition he was playing against. If he’s handled incorrectly and put in the wrong scheme with the wrong supporting cast, maybe he never develops to reach his potential. That said, people absolutely RAVE about his work ethic, leadership, and locker room presence, despite him being—once again—only twenty years old. He also ran considerably more pro-style concepts than any of the other top-billed quarterbacks in this draft as NDSU asks a lot of its quarterbacks mentally. Lance was tasked with adjusting protections, making checks at the line of scrimmage, and running play action from under center—all traits that will serve him well in the league—and he’s already shown the ability to go through his progressions and process the field quickly.
TLDR, Lance’s lack of experience is a very real worry, but it’s likely an overblown one. And due to his high marks in regards to character and work ethic, I am less worried about him developing than most.
Wavering Accuracy: This, however, is my big worry with Lance. He simply loses the strike zone too much, and—like anticipation and processing speed—consistent accuracy is a trait that some quarterbacks simply never grasp. Obviously, if you can’t be consistently accurate, you cannot succeed in the NFL, and you especially can’t succeed in Shanahan’s offense, which places a high priority on ball placement.
Lance’s misses vary from deep balls that sail to theoretically simple underneath passes.
*For context, Lance has a worse supporting cast than the other guys in contention but is also given fewer easy passes in NDSU’s offense. Plus, his receivers rarely get much separation or come down with tough contested catches. So a wheel route thrown behind a receiver on Lance’s film may tumble out of bounds and incomplete while the same pass in Mac Jones’ film—as we literally saw in his cutups—becomes a casual highlight-reel catch from this year’s Heisman winner.
There were times where I was watching film and thought he put the ball in the right place to keep his receiver from running into coverage or where he underthrew a deep ball specifically to get PI (his wideouts were very good at drawing these calls). Without access to All-22, it becomes even harder to tell who was right, and that doesn’t even take into account the inherent issues with not knowing how each program coaches these routes differently.
As for Lance’s consistency issues on ball placement, I don’t know nearly enough about quarterback mechanics to make a claim as to what’s causing these streaks of inaccuracy. His stroke itself looks pretty good, so if anything I’d assume his accuracy problems have more to do with his shoulders, alignment, etc. To me, that means the potential for fixing the problem is much greater than—for example—someone with a Tim Tebow-esque release.
Will it be fixed? Again, I’m not the guy to make that call, but one would think the coaching staff would be able to assess the likelihood of it after seeing him in person, and his work ethic and coachability will certainly help his cause.
Summary
NFL Comp: Josh Allen
Allen was massively criticized coming out of Wyoming because—in many ways—he went against many of the old-school teachings about what makes a successful NFL quarterback. He was inaccurate, his play dropped off during his last year in college, he didn’t dominate despite playing at a small school, he had poor numbers against Power 5 competition, and people questioned his maturity and leadership skills. But good lord did he have physical tools. And now, three years removed from being picked #7 by the Bills, I’d easily take Allen over any other QB in that draft class.
The Bills had a plan to surround Allen with talent, to let him grow into the position, and to give him extensive one-on-one tutoring in regards to his mechanics. Now, he’s an MVP candidate that just led his team to the AFC Championship game. But his success was due in large part to a wholesale restructuring of the roster and offensive scheme to fit his talents and the ability to lean on a dominant defense until he became the focal point of the team. The Niners seem dead-set on competing this year before having whoever we draft take the reins a year from now. With a roster built to compete now, will we have the patience to invest in what could be a developmental project?
I don’t know if anyone has the physical tools of Allen, but Lance is close, and I think he is more intelligent and mature than Allen was coming out of college. He also lacks any of Allen’s “character concerns”—which, to be fair to Allen, seems to have stemmed from nothing more than high school tweets. It’s also worth noting that we’re evaluating Trey Lance based on his 2019 season while everyone else has the luxury of leaning on their 2020 tape. If we were to compare Lance’s 2019 film to Zach Wilson’s or Mac Jones’ from the same year, Lance would come out on top without question. If his team had a season this fall, he could easily be the favorite to go #2 overall to the Jets.
That’s a lot of “ifs,” even if they’re entirely out of Lance’s control, and the accuracy concerns worry me. What Shanahan’s looking for in a quarterback may have evolved over the years, but it’s never going to migrate away from accuracy as a vitally important trait, and if the Niners think Lance will never become consistent with his ball-placement, they’ll take him off their board. However, the Niners’ current interest is very real—so much so that Lance started working with John Beck—the mutual connection QB coach to Shanahan—a few weeks ago per the Niners’ request, and today (Monday, April 19th), Lance will have his pro day shaped specifically to cater to the Niners’ offense. This gives the Niners’ another trusted eye in the evaluation process and is a borderline brilliant means of getting a lengthier, hands-on evaluation of a prospect who has been hard for scouts to nail down.
Ultimately, I’m bullish on Lance’s potential. He seems to have the mental makeup to overcome the lack of experience, and I think if the Niners—as experts on quarterback coaching and mechanics and with the help of Beck—come away from Lance’s second pro day confident that they can clean up his accuracy, that he could absolutely shred in our system for years to come.
Either way, someone on the Niners is gonna owe John Beck—who also works with Justin Fields and Zach Wilson—a beer. That is unless he doesn’t drink beer (he did go to BYU after all). Or if we draft Mac Jones…
Go Niners 👍🏈
Draftables: Mac Jones
Every media member’s dream fit
“It’s easier to maximize your ability when you know where that ability ends”
- probably a real person
That may seem like a diss, but you gotta respect what Mac Jones has done with limited physical tools. He’s gone from the afterthought quarterback in one of the best college recruiting classes of all time, to the winner of a preseason quarterback competition with a five-star Kyler Murray-type, to a national championship winner and potential top 5 pick in the NFL draft.
His production this year—while leading one of the top offenses in college football history—was remarkable, but two major questions remain: (1) how much of that production was—like it has been for so many Alabama quarterbacks before—based on the supreme talent and scheme around him; and (2) how will his lack of ideal tools translate to the NFL?
Let’s try our best to find out / guess.
![Get… excited? [Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1617765369346-P2ZPPPA202UVEA3FMBF5/Mac+Jones.jpg)
Get… excited? [Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images]
Ht: 6-2
Wt: 217 lbs.
Age: 22
School: Alabama
Stats
Build: Due to his long limbs, I expected Mac (real name “Michael McCorkle”) Jones to be much bigger, but he measured out just a fraction of an inch taller and a few pounds heavier than Zach Wilson. However, the two carry their weight much differently.
In essence, Mac Jones has transformed from your cousin’s gangly twelve-year-old friend who tries to hit on all the senior girls at the family Labor Day party to the dad flipping burgers and talking incessantly about his grill at that very same party.
Tom Brady’s infamous combine pictures are the gold standard for “it doesn’t matter what you look like as long as you can ball,” and—to be fair—there are plenty of NFL quarterbacks who have succeeded without chiseled physiques. So Jones’ bod isn’t actually important, even if it resembles that of a forty-year-old man.
Experience: A redshirt junior at Bama, Mac Jones is often billed as the most pro-ready of the first round quarterbacks but actually has the same number of career starts (17) as Trey Lance, whose entire sophomore season was cut short (except for one game) due to COVID shutdown. Granted, when you sit behind a Heisman front-runner and top 5 pick, the experience questions aren’t held against you as much (see: Murray, Kyler). But we’re still talking about a single season as a starter.
Injuries: Mac was kept pretty clean by Alabama’s elite offensive line and th only injury I could find was that a sprained ankle kept him out of playing in the Senior Bowl this draft season.
Scouting Report
Offensive Mastery: One of the reasons people don’t mention Jones’ lack of college starts is the level of mastery in which he ran Bama’s offense this past season. While he was certainly helped out by a truly unfair collection of talent around him, Jones showed complete control over the Tide’s playbook—which was NFL-like in breadth and complexity, even if it relied much more on RPOs than a pro team—and it’s easy to see how that will translate to the next level.
While he was often knocked as a game manager, Jones regularly puts the ball in the right place at the right time, and that fundamentally simple—but difficult to find—quality shouldn’t be undervalued in his evaluation. His understanding of the Bama offense was so deep that when Bill O’Brien came in to take over as offensive coordinator after the season, Jones was tasked with helping walk him through the playbook.
Reads the Full Field: While Bama was so stacked that he didn’t often have to go through all his progressions, Jones is lightning-quick scanning through his reads and getting the ball to the right player. He processes faster than any of the other quarterbacks in the class, is clean moving through his progressions, and throws with great anticipation, especially when throwing into windows between the hashes.
As mentioned in the Zach Wilson write-up, anticipation often differentiates starters from busts and is something that some people can learn and others simply never grasp. The fact that Jones already has it is a great sign.
Very good accuracy: When Jones is throwing within the comfort zone of his arm strength, he’s as accurate as any quarterback in this class. He regularly dots receivers in stride on short-to-intermediate routes, shows great touch throwing over underneath defenders, and typically makes work between the hashes look routine.
Despite being a bit gangly, Jones’ throwing motion is compact and efficient, leading to a quick release that can offset some of his arm strength limitations. He does a great job of keeping his mechanics in lockstep on every throw, has fewer eye-popping misses than the other prospects, and can throw down the field successfully when he can get the ball out quick and/or attack the middle of the field. His placement plus release will be an immediate weapon in the RPO and YAC game and will certainly get the attention of Shanahan—who has always prioritized accuracy in evaluating his quarterbacks.
Athleticism: Jones is scaring absolutely no one with his legs, but his athleticism is better than it’s been billed. He’s got quick feet and shows good awareness in the pocket, knowing when to step up or slide from pressure. He’s also much better throwing on the run than he’s given credit for, largely because he does a great job of keeping his eyes downfield and maintaining his upper body mechanics while on the move.
That said, don’t expect the sort of jaw-dropping off-platform throws that a lot of these other guys have shown throughout their film. When Jones really gets off his mark, is crushed for space and/or time, and has to rely more on his pure arm talent than mechanics, things can fall apart in a hurry. But that’s the case for a number of quarterbacks.
Leadership/Character: The Bama program and its players have spoken very highly of Jones, and he definitely gives off the vibe of a “chill bro” who you like to have around the locker room—an image that he continued to foster while chatting up Shanahan at his pro day. However, his record isn’t pristine. As a freshman, Jones was arrested for a DUI on campus after getting into a car accident at two in the morning.
To his credit, Jones has been open about his mistake and says that it changed his life and his life for the better. Since then, there have been no character issues. He finished his undergraduate studies with a 4.0 GPA in three years and played last season while working towards a masters degree. The DUI seems out-of-character enough and Mac Jones is white enough that it hasn’t gotten a ton of pre-draft attention, and while any red flag is worth investigating—and the Niners certainly will do just that—“dumb college kid does dumb college kid thing” is less likely than others to lead to issues down the road.
Subpar Arm Strength: This is Jones’ biggest knock, and it’s a very legitimate one. It’s not just that his arm strength falls well short of the other quarterbacks on this list—they all have absolute hoses—but that his arm strength will be—at best—average by NFL standards. And you see it on film.
It’s been noted that Jones’ completion percentage on deep passes was actually better than any of the other top QBs in this draft, but... Alex Smith also led the NFL in yards per attempt his last year in Kansas City. If you diagnose the deep ball quickly and let it rip early—as Smith did in KC—you can put up good vertical passing stats, but that’s not the same as threatening teams vertically with arm strength. When Jones really had to open up and uncork it down the field, the ball often wound up short, and he was bailed out more than a few times by great playmakers out wide.
Yes, most of these are completions, but they should have been touchdowns. That’s a lot of points left on the field. Granted, some of these are difficult throws, but they’re also throws that everyone else in contention for the No.3 pick has the arm strength to make (some, with regularity). Jones’ lack of arm strength also showed on quick balls outside the hashes and on some crossers when he had to throw across his body.
While he has enough oomph to get the ball to most spots on the field and should have few issues between the hashes, his arm strength is limited enough that it will affect the playbook and what we’d feel comfortable running.
Summary
NFL Comp: Swaggier Kirk Cousins
In the past decade, how many quarterbacks have played at a truly elite level with only average arm talent? I would argue two, and both of them (Brady and Brees) are first-ballot Hall of Famers and two of the smartest and most accurate quarterbacks of all time. Sure, Joe Burrow—last year’s #1 pick and a player who Jones is often compared to—also lacked ideal arm talent, but Burrow was considerably more effective off-script than Jones and had truly elite accuracy. Matt Ryan has also been the comp for people who are high on Jones, although I’d argue Ryan’s arm is better and that he was more accurate for longer through college—despite considerably worse numbers due to situation and supporting cast. A solid-but-not-spectacular Kirk Cousins or a more accurate-but-less-athletic Alex Smith is closer to where I’d guess. If he doesn’t occasionally wilt like Cousins, then is that enough?
While you can have prolonged success as a running back who’s not that fast (Frank Gore) or a receiver who’s not that big (Marvin Harrison), a quarterback’s skillset dictates the entirety of your offensive playbook. Gore didn’t have to run fly sweeps and quick pitches because there was always a backup or gadget player for that. Harrison didn’t need to win jump balls in the end zone because at any given time there were 2-3 other receivers they could line up opposite him to accomplish that task. As we’ve seen with Jimmy, if your quarterback isn’t comfortable (or capable) throwing the deep ball, the deep ball no longer exists in your playbook. If we’re going out of our way to replace Garoppolo, do we want to do so with someone who doesn’t let us expand our playbook?
I would absolutely take Mac Jones after the first round. Depending on who was still on the board, I would maybe take him at 12. Jones’ intelligence and accuracy should allow him to be a long-time player in this league—arm concerns be damned—the question is in what capacity. If the end result is an average-to-above average starter, have we improved from Jimmy G? Because that’s a major draft capital loss for a lateral move—even if Jones has fewer injury problems.
Since we traded four picks—three of them first-rounders—for a chance to move up for a quarterback in a loaded class, I want someone with higher upside whose tools let us open up our offense and better utilize the weapons at our disposal. I want someone who I can envision being a top 5 quarterback in this league for the next decade. If that’s our expectation for Mac Jones then—considering his physical limitations—he has little to no room for error. We’d be banking on him becoming Tom Brady or Drew Brees—the two greatest outliers at the position of the past twenty years—and referencing past outliers to shape current decisions is a surefire way of missing more often than you hit.
I believe that if we take Jones at three he’ll have success in Shanahan’s system. His accuracy, quick decision-making, and smarts should allow him that floor. But for what we gave up to get that pick, the goal should be more than that. If the Niners do wind up with Jones—which every media person seems oddly sure of—then they’d better be absolutely positive he’ll reach his ceiling.
Go Niners 👍🏈
Draftables: Zach Wilson
Soon-to-be the one that got away?
A few weeks into the season I started texting some friends to take a look at this kid from BYU who was creeping into first-round consideration. He was a projected mid-rounder entering the year, but I thought he could be a major value play at the end of the first round (we were only somewhat RAVAGED by injuries at this point so I was still thinking we’d be picking there) and secure the position for the future. I should have known better than to put that out in the world. Wilson is now the consensus No.2 pick to the Jets.
But hey, we’ll take a look at him anyway.
Ht: 6-2
Wt: 214 lbs.
Age: 21
School: BYU
Unofficially nicknamed “The Mormon Manziel”—despite those two concepts being inherently incongruent—the junior signal caller out of BYU earned his moniker due to his exciting free-wheeling style and improvisational abilities.
While his pure arm talent has always been intriguing, Wilson put everything together as a junior after spending the off-season commuting 10 hours from Provo, Utah to Southern California to get coached by former Cougar and QB guru John Beck. The result was 3,692 yards passing, 33TD-3 INT, and a 73.5% completion percentage while leading the Cougars to an 11-1 record and 11th-place finish in the AP Poll.
Stats
Build: Size was a question going into the pre-draft process, but those concerns have largely been alleviated after Wilson measured in at 6-2 214 pounds during his pro day. While he’s a bit slimmer than ideal, he’s plenty big and tall enough to not have his game hindered by his frame.
Experience: Despite entering the draft a year early, Wilson has more starting experience than any of this year’s top-billed quarterbacks not named Trevor Lawrence. A three-year starter with (I think) 28 starts under his belt, Wilson benefits from playing in a creative hybrid offense that employs tons of play action, RPOs, and a nice mix of downfield passes and quick-game. This year—with zero games against Power 5 competitors—Wilson benefited from an incredible offensive line and a talented stable of wideouts with BYU-specific names (Dax Milne, Gunner Romney, Isaac Rex). While some of his wideouts may see NFL rosters, they’re far from elite athletes. So while Wilson’s experience may make him more pro-ready than most, the change in competition level will be drastic.
Injuries: Avert your eyes. Wilson’s been dinged up enough to warrant a legitimate medical eval. He had shoulder surgery after his freshman year, which led to him missing spring ball, then his sophomore year was cut short after 9 games due to an injury to his hand. That said, people don’t seem all that worried, and neither the shoulder nor the hand were of any concern last year, but Wilson will need to protect his body better as he transitions to the NFL.
Scouting Report
Arm Talent: The first thing that pops off Wilson’s film is that he can put the ball anywhere on the field from any location on the field. He’s got an absolute cannon, and his ability to throw off-script from odd angles, different body positions, and a variety of arm slots is unparalleled—besting not only Trevor Lawrence but comparing favorably to the best in the NFL in that category. The ball comes out of his hand with ease, and the improvisational nature of his game pays dividends both on the little plays...
…and massive, Sportscenter-worthy splash plays.
Naturally, that loose and improvisational style of play can come with the occasional drawback. There are times when Wilson can be too cute with the ball (before this year, some would say reckless), but the math is certainly in his favor. He’s gonna hit way more often than he’s gonna miss. It’s also worth noting that the last guy to play this way and get the “reckless” tag was Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech. And while Mahomes will have the occasional play like this…
The benefits far outweigh the drawbacks. The same can be said for Wilson. The coaching staff may need to rein him in every once and a while, but they’d much rather have that problem than the other way around.
Accuracy: When Wilson’s on, he’s VERY on, and his best throws are dimes fit into difficult NFL windows. However, the ball gets away from him at times, leading to the occasional whiffs that dot his game tape. It’s not on the deepest throws, nor the most difficult ones, and these misses often seem to be a result of him relying a bit too much on his arm and not enough on his base. His incredible arm talent allows him to throw from all kinds of off-platform positions, but there are times when he’s forced to move in the pocket or simply when his feet aren’t moving with his progressions that the ball comes out funky and inaccurate.
There are lots of different types of accuracy concerns, but if you have to have one, this is one of the better ones to have. There’s nothing foundationally wrong with his stroke that’s holding him back, and it seems like increased attention to detail and some tweaks to his base could smooth out the bumps in a hurry.
Decision Making: Known as a diligent studier of film, Wilson is calm in the pocket and typically diagnoses the defense quickly before hitting the right man. However, you sometimes wonder how he got there (even if the end result works out). It’s always hard to tell when a player is freelancing or making the wrong read without knowing how they’re being coached and because he’s not always moving his feet with his progressions it can be harder to tell what he’s eyeing, but the same relaxed manner that permeates his throwing ability can—at times—make his play look a bit lackadaisical or unstructured. You want some of that “sandlot” style mentality when you’re improvising and extending plays, but a play that’s schemed open—especially from our staff—will be open at a much higher clip than one you have to work off-script to create. There are benefits to your QB being chill. You just don’t want them to be too chill.
To be clear, Wilson’s decision-making is far from a weakness, and a one-on-one film session alongside coaches breaking down his tape would quickly shed light on his thought process. Unless he presents himself in a manner that would make you doubt his ability to continue to improve in this regard, it’s not something I’d worry about.
Processing Speed/Anticipation: One of the greatest differentiators between good college quarterbacks and good pro quarterbacks is their ability to anticipate throws and let go of the ball before receivers are open. Wilson has this ability in spades—regularly releasing the ball before his receivers uncover. This is displayed most regularly in BYU’s healthy dose of back-shoulder fades, but inside and outside the hashes in the quick game as well.
A lot of quarterbacks have flamed out in the NFL because they didn’t anticipate throws in college and were never able to develop that skillset in the pros as the game sped up. The fact that Wilson is already seeing (and trusting) windows before they’re open greatly raises his floor as a player.
Athleticism: Wilson is an underrated athlete, likely falling around the Sam Darnold realm in terms of mobility. He doesn’t seem particularly explosive when moving laterally, but he’s got quick feet climbing the pocket and when he plants his foot in the ground and cuts upfield, he’s got surprising top-end speed (and even some wiggle in the open field).
You’re not gonna pound the rock with him—especially given his smaller frame—but he’s got more than enough athleticism to extend plays with his legs, run for first downs when guys are covered on third-and-short, or pull a handful of read options to keep defenses honest.
Versus Pressure: Wilson had the benefit of playing behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines while facing subpar competition, so there are naturally questions about his ability to slide in the pocket and deliver throws under pressure. However, those questions are based more on the lack of an ideal sample size than any troubling trends. According to PFF, Wilson was sacked only 12.7% of the time when pressured and had the third-highest passing grade under pressure across the entire FBS (with zero turnovers). According to ESPN, his total QBR when pressured (44.0) and when blitzed (94.5) were second in this class—only to Mac Jones. So his performance under pressure has actually been quite strong; he just needs more reps.
There are times when his fundamentals get sloppy under pressure, and as a good athlete but not a great one, Wilson will need to figure out when to bail and when to slide into the pocket against NFL pass rushes. He’ll also learn quickly that he won’t have the speed to routinely break front-shoulder out of the pocket. But his pocket awareness and movement skills already seem strong so there’s no reason to believe he won’t get there with further experience.
Leadership: It’s that time of the year again, where we have to figure out whether rumors of “personality concerns” are a case of boomer scouts not liking “the Hip Hop” or a prospect being too much of a turd to lead a team of grown men. Wilson is the only player in the top five quarterbacks who has even an inkling of “personality concerns,” but they seem much more likely to be nothing than the other way around.
The questions surrounding Wilson revolve around two things: (1) BYU named four offensive captains entering the 2020 season but Wilson was NOT one of them; and (2) this scathing Walter Football write-up from an “anonymous director of scouting from an NFL team”:
"Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? He's a backyard baller who is fun to watch."
"Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue -, parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all.
"His positives are that he's super competitive, not to get scared and won't back down, extremely confident, very smart with keen recall and teammates will play for him."
Let’s chat about the captain situation first. People forget that Wilson couldn’t finish his sophomore year due to injury so BYU had an open quarterback competition entering the fall. When the captains were announced, Wilson was excluded, but he was one of eight players selected to the team’s “leadership council.” You can imagine the BYU staff may not have wanted to tip their hand on their starting quarterback—thus ending the competition—by naming Wilson a captain over his competition. Additionally, each of the four players who were chosen as offensive captains were (1) entrenched multi-year starters and (2) guys who had already completed missionary work. I won’t pretend to know how BYU’s captain selection process operates or whether that plays a part, but that means those are like grown men. To me, this is not a red flag.
As for the character bashing, Wilson’s former and current teammates and coaches quickly came to his defense after the Walter Football article was published. When presented with the character concerns, Adam Schefter himself said he was shocked as he’d been calling around and had heard nothing but great things about Wilson. Even local journalists stepped forward, saying that—despite Wilson being the nephew of the founder of Jet Blue—he picked up shifts driving Door Dash to help pay for his QB coaching and—while staying in Southern California with a teammate—he’d show up with ramen noodles, bread, and peanut butter because he didn't want to be a burden on his host family’s food bill.
In short, the character concerns seem more like an old man bitching about avocado toast and less like a real problem. And if there was any inkling that Wilson wasn’t the right personality fit with the Niners, we’d be in a perfect situation to know. Despite any personnel moves that haven’t worked out, Shanahan and Lynch have done a great job of filtering out players who they didn’t think would mesh with the locker room. They’ll get to meet Wilson in person and—if that’s not enough—they have a connect with Wilson’s QB tutor—Beck played for a handful of years under Shanahan in Washington—and Fred Warner’s little brother—who was a defensive captain at BYU this past season. All this to say, the Niners should have a very very complete picture of Wilson as a person by the time the draft rolls around.
Summary
NFL Comp: Mini Mahomes
I’ve yet to dive into the All-22 film of the other dudes in our draft range, but at the moment Wilson is definitely my favorite quarterback in this class. His arm talent and off-schedule ability give him a tremendously high ceiling—with glimpses of Rodgers and Mahomes in his game—while his anticipation and work ethic raises his floor. His strengths are all things you can’t teach while his weaknesses seem imminently fixable with time and good coaching. He may be a tad less consistent than some would expect and the leap from BYU to the NFL will be a big one, but his skill set fits perfectly within Shanahan’s offense and he’d immediately allow us to open things up down the field while creating plus value off of broken plays.
In all likelihood, we won’t get the chance to draft him even if we wanted to. The tea leaves are all pointing to the Jets selecting him No.2 overall, where he’ll join Robert Saleh and Matt LaFleur in New York. But in case they don’t…
Go Niners 👍🏈
The Hunt Begins
It’s gonna be a long month…
It’s gonna be one of these guys (or maybe Mac Jones)
After the absolutely massive trade that sent three first-round picks and a 2022 third rounder to the Dolphins in exchange for the No.3 pick in this month’s draft, the Niners seem dead set on drafting their quarterback of the future. While Jimmy G could still be the dude in 2021 (more on that later), this is the big swing that could define John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan’s tenure with the 49ers. Although drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes will likely wind up the biggest net-loss in terms of value during the ShanaLynch era, we at least netted three mid-round picks that year from the trade down. We gained draft capital that would be spent on additional players. Obviously, that’s not the case with this deal.
So… should we have done this?
While I am typically in favor of trading down, I’m not against trading up if it’s for the right player at the right position. Franchise quarterbacks certainly fit that bill. Much has been written about NFL scouts (or scouts in any sports league for that matter) wildly overestimating their ability to judge and evaluate talent and value—thus feeding the argument that you shouldn’t package picks to trade up. While Tom Brady is the obvious example of a missed evaluation, even in today’s age (yes, Brady is old enough that we should be considering the current age different than the era he was drafted in) experts get stuff wrong all the time.
Take this 2014 excerpt from NFL.com’s official scouting report on a defensive tackle out of Pittsburgh:
They thought so little of him, they didn’t even get the aspect ratio of his photo right…
All this seems to point to the idea that batting averages are low, no one knows as much as they think, and the best way to mitigate risk is to accumulate picks and simply take more swings. But while history is littered with failed attempts to trade up for franchise quarterbacks (Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, RG3), three of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL (Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen) were also acquired through similarly aggressive draft day maneuvers. Ultimately, you have to take your swings at some point, and while this Niners regime has been critiqued at times for being too aggressive in pursuit of “their dudes,” a combination of factors means this could be the right time to make this particular move.
Unless we run into a string of injuries that is even more historically bad than last year’s, we shouldn’t expect to be drafting as high as No.12 in the near future. And certainly not while facing down a quarterback class that has at least four QBs who I’d actually be cool with taking in the first round. For reference, I typically only like somewhere between two and zero quarterbacks in the first round of any given draft class (in fact, from 2013 through 2016 I only really liked two, and neither are currently NFL starters). There have been some talking heads who have critiqued the Niners’ trade as positioning them to pick “the draft’s third-best quarterback,” but I don’t think that argument’s valid. As stated above, quarterback draft talent fluctuates wildly from year-to-year and it doesn’t matter how many good quarterbacks there are in any given draft, it matters that the quarterbacks are good in the first place. According to Peter King of SI, the Niners were encouraged to make this move because they both recognized the talent in this class and saw the slim pickins next year (Sam Howell? Kedan Slovis?). So if the Niners like three (or more) of the top QBs in this draft—which this trade basically confirms—that’s all the more reason to move up in a rare year where draft capital, positional talent, and need at a priority position all coincide with one another.
In summary, I like the move. IF we pick the right guy. Because if we don’t get that right, we’ve screwed ourselves for the foreseeable future. Given the stakes, everything I post for the next month will be about who we pick at No.3, starting with a breakdown of what we’ll likely be looking for in the position.
A new(ish) game
The game has changed dramatically since Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took over the Niners four years ago, with the shifts the most noticeable (and undeniable) over this past season. As proof that I’m not just an old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn, here’s a five-year breakdown of total accepted penalties, sorted by type.
NFL penalties by season
A 14.1% increase in defensive PI calls over the previous four-year average is a legitimate uptick but nothing compared to the 26.6% decrease in defensive holding or the astronomical 33.4% decrease in offensive holding over that same time period. It’s pretty easy to see why the NFL made these changes: (1) They want to encourage more scoring; and (2) it’s way harder for people to bitch about a missed holding call than the more-obviously-apparent missed PI. But despite not changing the definition of any of these rules in the past year, the NFL’s choice to drastically change how said rules are implemented and officiated has had massive gameplay ramifications.
I’d like to take this time to point out that both these stats and the result of the Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl have 100% validated my bitching and moaning about the piss-poor officiating from our Super Bowl a year ago. The NFL made a conscious effort to shift away from calling holding of any kind starting in that 2019 Super Bowl and running through this past season, and the Chiefs—who led the league in defensive holding in 2019 and were top 3 in both offensive and defensive holding last year—were the primary benefactor. While the Chiefs likely would have lost the championship this year regardless, the fact that—unlike last year—they were actually called for defensive holding when they committed it, led to a boring blowout of a Super Bowl. While Kansas City was missing their starting tackles this February, the Bucs didn’t have our epic pass rush from two years ago, and if the 2019 Super Bowl was officiated like the 2020 Super Bowl was, I believe we’d have won the game by a similar margin that the Bucs just did.
I’m not bitter, you are.
Anyways, enough stick shaking. While the NFL’s rule changes mean they’re clearly playing favorites in terms of play-style, it’s something we need to take into account moving forward. You gotta play with what you’re dealt with and these officiating decisions force a trickle down effect to both our offensive scheme, and—in turn—what we’re looking for in a young quarterback.
Defensive PI: Up
This obviously benefits an offense that passes more often, but more specifically—as pass interference is a spot foul—it encourages deep ball passing. That means getting a quarterback with the arm strength and touch to be comfortable with down-the-field throws.
Defensive Holding: Down
I’m not sure if allowing defenses to hold specifically benefits one style of offense over another, but—if I were to guess—I’d say it benefits the deep ball. Holding is a penalty that probably (maybe?) is called against short-to-intermediate routes more often because if the call isn’t made on a receiver’s release it’s typically made on their break. On short routes those breaks are harder, with less time for separation, which can elicit a hold-worthy grab. On deep routes you’re looking at speed cuts (or no cuts at all) and the ball is often released before a wideout is open. Any holds at this point become pass interference. The line is murkier on shorter throws.
It’s a theory. It may not be legit.
Offensive Holding: WAY Down
A drop in offensive holding greatly helps the vertical passing game (seeing a trend here?). More time to pass means more time for wideouts to get open. That part’s simple. But it also helps mobile quarterbacks in a way that is a bit less apparent. A QB who can scramble in and out of the pocket and buy time with his feet presents a lot of advantages, but one of the inherent drawbacks with that style of play is that it’s much harder for offensive linemen to pass protect when the strike zone (pocket) keeps moving. By backing up deeper than expected or sprinting out of the pocket, a mobile quarterback changes the rush angles of the defensive line, and—since the OL has no idea what the QB is doing behind them—naturally leads to more holding calls.
Or it did. With holding calls down a third from last year, that drawback is greatly mitigated.
Hitting the Quarterback: WAY Down
While there’s no easy way to determine how many late hit and unnecessary roughness calls are directed towards breathing on quarterbacks on scrambling plays nor how those numbers have increased in recent seasons, our direct experience playing against Kyler and Russ twice a year should give us more than enough anecdotal evidence to the fact that dual-threat quarterbacks are protected more so than ever. That mitigates the second biggest drawback of a dual-threat quarterback: durability concerns.
In recent years there’s been a lot of talk about a study that shows that the rate of injury to a quarterback on scrambling plays (1 in every 91.7 plays) is comparable to the rate of injury when a QB is sacked (1 in every 92.5 plays) and that knockdowns—due in part to the awkwardness of attempting a throw while being hit—actually cause the most quarterback injuries. While those figures are intriguing, that doesn’t change the fact that scrambling inherently creates more total plays—thus increasing injury chances based on volume—and that the rate of being exposed to a hit on a scramble is considerably higher than the rate of being exposed to a hit on a common dropback. That said, the data implies that while dual-threat quarterbacks will still be injured more often than pocket passers, as long as a team is being smart about it, working to protect their quarterback through scheme, and said quarterback is actively trying to preserve their body, the difference in injury risk is lower than traditionally thought.
The league’s emphasis on protecting quarterbacks on these kinds of plays only lessens that risk.
In summary, the way the league is calling the game incentivizes throwing the ball down the field and mitigates the drawbacks—while accenting the benefits—of a quarterback who can scramble and make plays off-schedule. That doesn’t mean we need someone as electric as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray—throwing ability will always be the more important trait as long as Shanahan is calling the offense—but having good mobility and the arm talent to throw from outside a clean pocket is more important than ever.
It’s also worth noting that the big-play benefits that we get from Shanahan’s system can also lead to the occasional negative play. We know that increased variance is inherent in a zone/stretch scheme, but we can also see it in the passing game. We accept that variance because when the offense is humming it’s near-unstoppable and the average output per play and per game is greater than we’d see if Shanahan chose to play it safe. But with a quarterback who can extend plays and create off-schedule, we’d not only give ourselves the chance at more explosive gains but—perhaps as importantly—lessen the damage of our negative plays. Turning five-yard losses into one-yard losses and three-yard losses into throwaways adds up in a hurry. A quarterback who can extend plays could help raise the floor of our offense as well as the ceiling.
What hasn’t changed
What Shanahan’s looking for in a signal caller has certainly evolved since he took over in 2017 and had his eyes set on Kirk Cousins, but there are a few mainstays of his offense—and the type of quarterback he seems likely to pursue—that remain constant.
Intelligence: The Niners really prioritize intelligence when building their roster and this is especially the case on offense. Shanahan’s scheme is notoriously complicated and difficult to learn—with complex blocking rules and countless minute details that separate his scheme from others’. In the past two years, we’ve seen the Niners grab offensive linemen (Skule, McKivitz) higher than many expected because they emphasized their smarts over pure athletic traits. Those same rules apply to the quarterback position. If a prospect fails on the whiteboard or the staff has any hesitation that he’ll be able to soak up the entirety of the playbook, the Niners will not be taking them.
Accuracy: Even if we start throwing deep more often, we’ll always prioritize accuracy over raw arm strength. Shanahan’s offense requires precise timing and pinpoint passes, and a pass on time and in stride is all the difference when it comes to maximizing the YAC potential of our many offensive weapons. Shanahan would surely like to be able to open the passing attack up more, but not at the expense of our efficiency in creating chunk plays underneath.
Personnel: With Kittle and Juice both on multi-year deals, it’s clear that the Niners are committed to heavy doses of 21 personnel and an emphasis on running the ball effectively to set up play action. While a strong-armed quarterback could lead to more deep shots and a mobile one could present some nice wrinkles running option pulls opposite a Raheem Mostert stretch the other way, the foundation of our offense will remain unchanged—regardless of who we draft. The new addition will be tasked with helping open up and elevate our offense, not force wholesale changes in what we’re doing schematically.
What happens with Jimmy G?
While Jimmy G’s days in San Francisco appear numbered, that doesn’t mean he’ll be gone right away. The idea of Garoppolo starting in 2021 may seem counterintuitive to the move the Niners just made, but when taken in the context of the rest of the off-season, it actually makes a lot of sense.
The Trent Williams and Juice deals are multi-year pacts with high price tags, but the return of guys like Jeff Wilson, DJ Jones, Jason Verrett, Jaquiski Tartt, and K’Waun Williams on one-year deals means the Niners clearly believe they can compete at a high level in 2021. Entrusting a rookie quarterback to run Shanahan’s complex scheme in a year when OTAs and training camp could still be greatly impacted by COVID restrictions would be quite the leap of faith. While there are enough similarities in BYU’s offense and ours that you could see a three-year starter like Zach Wilson starting right away, Justin Fields is moving from an air raid scheme and Trey Lance has only 17 career starts on the D-1AA level. The Niners made their free agent decisions knowing that they could make this blockbuster trade. They didn’t bring so many guys back on one-year deals just to go through the ups and downs of a starting rookie quarterback.
We also have to think about market value. By bringing so many guys back on one-year deals, the Niners are banking on many of them playing their way into bigger and better contracts—whether that’s with the Niners or elsewhere. Jimmy G is basically in the same boat. He’ll want to have a good year to secure a starting role and sizable contract from wherever he winds up next, while the Niners want him to have a good year so that they can take advantage of their current window and maximize his return in any future trade. If Jimmy G absolutely goes off this season then the Niners could be in for a Drew Brees/Philip Rivers-like decision a year from now. If he plays well enough to net a good draft return, then we could be looking at something similar to the Chiefs with Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes. While I’m not saying whoever we draft will be the next Rivers or Mahomes, both of those situations wound up pretty beneficial for all parties involved. It never hurts to have more than one capable quarterback. One of the overlooked factors in evaluating our trade up to No.3 is figuring out what we’re getting for Jimmy G when we move him. Starting him this season would give us the best chance to win and the best chance of increasing that return.
Creating cap space is one of the primary reasons people give for moving Jimmy before the season. While there’s little to no reason to do that this year—as we’re likely done with free agency for the spring—cap space rolls over, we’ve got a lot of backloaded deals, and a net gain of $23.6M in 2022 looks nice as we start extension talks with guys like Warner, Bosa, Samuel, and McGlinchey. There’s validity to this argument, but if the rookie isn’t ready to start or gets injured, how comfortable are you with one of the Joshes (Rosen or Johnson) taking the reins for 2022?
Additional arguments that have been floated include the likes of “you don’t draft someone at No.3 just to sit them for a year” or “the best way for a young quarterback to gain experience is in playing time.” But there are major flaws in both of these claims. None of the three quarterbacks to receive MVP votes this year were starters at the beginning of their rookie seasons and two—Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes—didn’t play a single meaningful snap their first year in the league. The two most successful quarterbacks of the 2018 class—Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson—were meant for the bench but were basically forced onto the field due to necessity midway through their rookie seasons. If the Niners do move on from Garoppolo before the year, it’s because they’ve been offered a handsome package in return and believe they can compete with a rookie starter, not because they feel the need to get Jimmy out of town.
All that said, I still believe that Jimmy G is our most likely starting quarterback to open the 2021 season. Whether he finishes the season as the starter—either due to injury or play by a rookie—is a much harder question. But rest assured, the Niners’ blockbuster trade was done both with the future in mind and the belief that we have a team that can compete in the present.
Next up, we’ll take a deep dive on each of the three (or four) quarterbacks who we could be drafting at No.3.
Go Niners 👍🏈
Running it Back (Again)
this time with feeling
LFG
With the first wave of free agency all but wrapped up, the 49ers have made clear their plan for 2021: run it back, but this time without historically bad injury luck. After a season in which they lost the second-most adjusted games to injury of any team over the past twenty years, Niners brass has doubled down on the idea that their scheme, roster core, and locker room are strong enough that their main priority is retaining its pieces and going for another run.
That kind of thinking often leads to a “pushing the chips in” mentality that aims to win as much as possible during a tight championship window, and—when those championships don’t cascade as expected—often leads to the salary cap hell situations that both the Eagles and the Saints are currently digging themselves out of. It’s a way of thinking that innately prioritizes the short-term over the long-term. That said, the Niners’ situation is considerably different than that of the above-mentioned teams, and the multitude of factors surrounding this roster, its many free agents, and the effect of COVID and a new television deal on the current and future salary cap, make the moves seem poised to help us both in the short- and the long-run.
Contract Restructures
Let’s talk first about something that I’d hinted at in the free agency preview, and that’s the restructuring of the contracts of two big-name players that are coming off injuries who were expected to be cut this off-season.
First off, the Niners restructured the contract of Weston Richburg, knocking his base salary down to the league minimum and creating $6.9M in cap space in the process. As of now, this is not expected to be a Jerick McKinnon situation—where he gives it another shot to get healthy. Richburg is expected to retire, which would add an additional $3.5M in dead money to this year’s cap unless his retirement happens after June 1st (or designated as such)—in which case we can spread that charge over two years.
Unlike Richburg, the Niners seem hopeful that Dee Ford will make it back to the field and play this season. While Ford’s $11.6M injury guarantee as of April 1st made any contract negotiations more complicated, the Niners essentially restructured his deal to spread that $11.6M over two years. Ford’s contract is now a 2- rather than a 3-year deal, with base salaries of $4M and $2.4M, respectively, in 2021 and 2022 and approximately $10M worth of possible incentives during that time. By doing this, the Niners opened up $11.2M in cap space for the 2021 season.
It’s worth noting how the Niners’ approach to contract negotiations differs from other teams. Yes, Richburg doesn’t gain or lose any money in his contract restructure, so as long as he enjoyed his time in SF it makes sense for him to accept a new deal to help out the team’s salary cap. The same can’t be said for Ford. If he wanted to keep his base salary high and had declined a contract restructuring, he’d walk away with the same $11.6M this year that he’s going to make over the next two but would then be free to search out another team to supplement that with a new contract. On the Niners’ side, they could have taken Ford’s contract to salary arbitration, where they likely would have been able to shave off millions from what was owed.
Compare this to how the Raiders have seemingly gone about an off-season in which they’ve attempted to strong-arm guys into taking pay cuts or getting cut—a move which would have sent their best offensive lineman packing for nothing until the Cardinals jumped the free agent line with a last-minute trade offer—and has seemingly left a number of ex-players disgruntled. Instead, the Niners chose to approach Ford with the restructure and he chose to stick in SF and try to get healthy to hit incentives, rather than take the money and search for greener pastures.
While the Niners’ attempts to approach contract negotiations and roster moves in a more transparent and respectful way than some of the more “old school” franchises presents the obvious benefit of rooting for a team that seemingly treats its employees a bit better than most, I truly think it pays dividends on and off the field as well. We see that in how the team competes every week. We saw that with Ford’s restructure this year. We saw that with Raheem Mostert’s restructure last year—where he signed on the dotted line for a new contract after having a heart-to-heart with Kyle Shanahan in which they talked about life and family. And we saw that—in part—with the last-minute deal given to our biggest priority free agent.
Multi-Year Re-Signings
It’s safe to say we did NOT get a discount on Trent Williams’ new contract—which included a last-second call to Shanahan and a record-breaking 6-year/$138M deal that was finalized in the eleventh hour to outbid the Kansas City Chiefs.
That said, Williams’ contract is not as overbearing as it may seem. His initial cap hits are $8.2M (2021) and $14.1M (2022)—meaning his next two years on the books are cheaper than his last one—and the contract has outs after the 2023 and 2025 seasons. If you were to combine his annual salary with the accelerated dead cap figure that would accompany him if cut between 2023 and 2025, the contract is basically a 3-5 year deal @ $20M/year.
As for the sixth year in this extension, it’s really just for show. With a $33M cap hit, zero guaranteed money, and no signing bonus proration, it’s hard to imagine it going through as structured. The entire purpose of that hefty final year is to make Williams’ annual average value (AAV) equal $23.01M, which narrowly edges the Green Bay Packers’ David Bakhtiari ($23.00M) for the highest AAV for any offensive lineman, a hilariously petty addition that Bakhtiari himself has certainly appreciated.
Juice also reset his positional market with his new deal, increasing his already league-best fullback contract by a whopping $0.1M AAV. While he’s basically on a repeat contract four years later, he’ll only be making the veteran minimum in both 2021 and 2022 with cap hits of $2.3M and $3.0M, respectively, and while Juice’s cap hits hover between $6.6 and $7.6M over the last three years of his deal, the Niners—as they did with Williams—have built in a potential out following the 2023 season. After that year (in which he’ll be 32 years old), they can release him and only bite $2.7M in dead cap, with that number declining in each subsequent year.
So why did Juice take this deal? I’m sure familiarity and fit within the Shanahan scheme and the Niners’ locker room were big selling points, but the most tangible financial benefit Juice got from this contract versus the last one (or probably any deal given out to a fullback), is that while last time he had guarantees through his first two seasons, this time he has guarantees through his first three. As a man entering his thirties at a high-impact position, it’s not surprising that the extra year of guaranteed cash was appealing.
The last on the list of returning players to get multi-year extensions, but the first whom the Niners locked up, Emmanuel Moseley secured a two-year/$9.4M deal. A restricted free agent, the Niners could have kept Moseley on a one-year tender but decided he was important enough that they wanted to make him the only corner signed to a multi-year contract. His ability to play either out wide or in the slot likely has something to do with that, as does the fact that the way his contract is structured, his cap hit will be less than that of a second-round RFA tender, which is likely what we would have had to give him to keep him from getting poached.
One-year Deals
In addition to the one-year deals signed by restricted free agents Jeff Wilson, Marcell Harris, and Ross Dwelley, the Niners locked up considerably more veterans than we reasonably could have expected, securing the services of various returning starters who were expected to be out the door. This was likely due to a combination of each of these players’ recent injury history and the depressed COVID cap. Every name below will be looking to have a healthy and productive season in 2021 before departing for a bigger payday somewhere else in 2022.
Jason Verrett is the biggest name returning on one of these deals, as he’s our undisputed No.1 cornerback. A $5.5M contract with $4.5M guaranteed at signing is more than fair if he can stay healthy and produce anything like he did last year.
DJ Jones is back as our starting nose tackle, which means I can play this clip for at least one more season.
While he’s been a bit more durable in every season, Jones’ potential breakout season never really came to fruition last year. It’s hard for nose tackles to get paid, especially when they’re not putting up eye-popping stats. He’s hoping his unique blend of size and quickness will result in a bit more pass rush production to go along with a fully healthy season. His return means that we won’t have to address nose tackle early in the draft and/or throw Darrion Daniels into the fire before he’s ready.
K’Waun Williams tested the waters and took some visits, but ultimately re-signed as well, bringing back our third starting corner from last year’s unit (Sherman technically started, but due to injury it’s hard to say he was one of our core three in 2020). The salaries haven’t caught up to the importance of nickel corners in modern-day defenses, and whenever the cornerback market is down—like due to a COVID cap—the nickel market plummets. K’Waun played 13 or more games in five of his past six seasons before injuries limited him to eight in 2020. Like the others, he’s looking to leverage a healthy year into one last multi-year contract in 2022.
On the depth side of things, Jordan Willis was brought back on a one-year deal. He flashed a bit after the trade from the Bengals last year and while he was far from a showstopper, he certainly has enough promise to bring back for another go-around. They’ll be hoping that a year in their off-season program will help him.
Finally—and most surprisingly—Jaquiski Tartt was brought back for another go as well. With Tarvarius Moore having one year left on his rookie deal, the Niners bringing safety Tavon Wilson in from the Colts, and Jimmie Ward playing better last year in a role that saw him closer to the LOS as more of a versatile nickel/box safety, it’s hard to see where Tartt fits in. In particular, what does this mean for Moore and his future on the team beyond this season? All that said, we won’t turn down defensive versatility, and Tartt is clearly a hell of a player when he’s healthy.
While retaining so many of our aging veterans is certainly a testament to Shanahan and Lynch’s faith in and emphasis on locker room dynamics, retaining this many players who are either injury prone, on the wrong side of thirty, or both, is often a troubling sign of a team showing too much loyalty in players who are presenting diminishing returns. That said, this is a very unique case.
The COVID cap has depreciated the value of many of the Niners’ free agents, meaning the team had the choice of either letting them walk for pennies at the bottom of their value or retain them in hopes that their stocks will rebound in time for a massive spike in the cap in 2022. The main benefit for a franchise of having nearly 40 free agents is that we expected to be due for some compensation picks when some of those free agents signed elsewhere. With the league’s sunken cap preventing those contracts from breaching the threshold required for comp picks, there would have been no compensation if any of these players had walked. So if the alternative is having veteran players who have performed well signing one-year deals somewhere else—giving their new team either a chance at a massive bargain or a chance to let the player walk the next year and accrue comp picks in return—then why not bring them back to the Niners? While there’s marginal risk that these players either can’t stay on the field, that their play dips, or that their presence stunts the growth of younger players behind them, the potential benefits far outweigh those concerns. In simplest terms, it’s the Niners following the buy-low, sell-high train of thought.
New Faces
While the Niners weren’t overflowing with cap space, the restructuring of Richburg and Ford’s contracts gave them some wiggle room to bring in a few moderately priced additions—some of whom could have major roles in 2021.
Samson Ebukam comes over from the Rams, and—as evidenced by the percentile marks of his pre-draft testing results—he absolutely fits the bill as an athletic freak on the edge.
Ebukam’s incredible pro day really launched him up draft boards and eventually got him selected in the fourth round by the Rams. From the same Eastern Washington class that had Cooper Kupp and Kendrick Bourne, Ebukam was mostly a rotational linebacker for the Rams and played most-often in a two-point stance. That will change with the Niners.
With his 4.50 speed and an insane 1.53 10-yard split, the Niners will put Ebukam on the edge with his hand on the ground and hope that he can emulate some of the speed rush that Dee Ford brought opposite a (hopefully) healthy Bosa. In what may have been their first-ever call, Kocurek already told him to work on his first-step get-off (it often doesn’t match his athleticism, but out of a two-point it’s hard to judge how much of that is him and how much is schematic fit), and he will—at least—be expected to be a primary player in the Niners’ turbo packages. If he can be more than that, then that’s icing on the cake.
It’s worth noting that Ebukam is far from a super athletic dude with no production. Despite playing mostly as a rotational player with the Rams, he ranked 36th out of 111 edge rushers in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric and the Niners hope Ebukam can become their Shaq Barrett—a talented edge rusher who was buried behind elder players in a scheme fit that wasn’t perfect and emerges as a plus performer on a new squad.
On the offensive side, Alex Mack was brought in to shore up the interior line. Long one of—if not the singular—best center in football, Mack played under Shanahan in Cleveland and then—after Shanahan’s endorsement—was brought in to the Falcons with a hefty contract. Now he is 35 and his play has dipped, but he’ll surely be motivated/look better playing under Shanahan than with the dregs of the Falcons offense, and our hope is that he still has some top-10 play left in him. The Niners seem to be banking heavily on that because Mack’s deal—which was originally believed to be a one-year contract—is actually a three-year pact that averages nearly $5M/year. While the Niners have dialed his cap figure appropriately ($3M in 2021) and can save $4.3M off the cap by releasing him in 2022 if age has taken its toll, this isn’t a “ghost year” deal. They’d be taking on some dead cap even with the savings.
While Mack’s age and recent dip in production may cause some worry, the Niners have had interior pass protection issues for the majority of the past year and a half and there’s a very valid argument that if we were better in that regard we would have won the Super Bowl in 2019. At the very least, Mack will improve those issues dramatically and allow Daniel Brunskill to commit to learning right guard. Mack will get the protection calls down and get people in the right position, and if the Niners still tap an interior lineman in the middle rounds of the draft, he can be an excellent tutor for them.
Getting much less pub but a very exciting pickup in his own right is interior lineman Zach Kerr. A nose tackle in the “too quick to be this big” DJ Jones mold, Kerr was a rotational piece for the Panthers last year but his thirteen pressures, six QB knockdowns and two sacks are pretty impressive numbers given his role. Over nearly 400 snaps, he was actually graded by PFF as the 10th best interior lineman in the league (out of 125 qualifiers). I can’t say I’ve watched him play a ton, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kerr—on a cheap one-year contract—is next season’s Kerry Hyder.
On the back end of the roster, the Niners picked up Tavon Wilson, a multi-year starter for the Lions and—most previously—a reserve for the Colts. With Ward, Tartt, and Moore, Wilson is certainly a depth addition who will likely see a lot of run on special teams. The same goes for wide receiver Trent Sherfield from the Cardinals. Long-time special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was let go, and those new additions are likely expected to step into his place.
What does it mean for 2021?
While we’re relying heavily on one-year deals at crucial positions, locking up so many of our own and bringing in key additions means that we can enter the draft without our hand being forced. If we’d lost Trent Williams we’d likely need to go with an offensive lineman early. If we hadn’t locked up Verrett, the same could easily be said for cornerback. Patching up those holes, even if some of the patches are short-term, means that we have draft flexibility. We’d certainly be smart to still address those two positions (McGlinchey’s contract is ending shortly and Verrett is on a one-year deal) as well as others, but we are no longer forced into zeroing in on a single position and reaching for need over value.
But the many deals we gave out—and in particular Trent Williams’—point to a major change in the future and one that has basically been confirmed with the Niners trading up to the No.3 pick in the draft just this morning. The Niners have backloaded their contracts to coincide with the expected spike in cap space in 2022 and on, but they’ll still need to save somewhere in order to retain their young core for the foreseeable future. Those savings are almost certainly to happen at quarterback. We should expect the Niners to be starting a QB on a rookie contract by 2022 (at the latest). After the trade this morning, we’re likely to find out who that quarterback will be by the end of April.
More on that next time.
Go Niners 👍🏈