Draftables: Zach Wilson
A few weeks into the season I started texting some friends to take a look at this kid from BYU who was creeping into first-round consideration. He was a projected mid-rounder entering the year, but I thought he could be a major value play at the end of the first round (we were only somewhat RAVAGED by injuries at this point so I was still thinking we’d be picking there) and secure the position for the future. I should have known better than to put that out in the world. Wilson is now the consensus No.2 pick to the Jets.
But hey, we’ll take a look at him anyway.
Ht: 6-2
Wt: 214 lbs.
Age: 21
School: BYU
Unofficially nicknamed “The Mormon Manziel”—despite those two concepts being inherently incongruent—the junior signal caller out of BYU earned his moniker due to his exciting free-wheeling style and improvisational abilities.
While his pure arm talent has always been intriguing, Wilson put everything together as a junior after spending the off-season commuting 10 hours from Provo, Utah to Southern California to get coached by former Cougar and QB guru John Beck. The result was 3,692 yards passing, 33TD-3 INT, and a 73.5% completion percentage while leading the Cougars to an 11-1 record and 11th-place finish in the AP Poll.
Stats
Build: Size was a question going into the pre-draft process, but those concerns have largely been alleviated after Wilson measured in at 6-2 214 pounds during his pro day. While he’s a bit slimmer than ideal, he’s plenty big and tall enough to not have his game hindered by his frame.
Experience: Despite entering the draft a year early, Wilson has more starting experience than any of this year’s top-billed quarterbacks not named Trevor Lawrence. A three-year starter with (I think) 28 starts under his belt, Wilson benefits from playing in a creative hybrid offense that employs tons of play action, RPOs, and a nice mix of downfield passes and quick-game. This year—with zero games against Power 5 competitors—Wilson benefited from an incredible offensive line and a talented stable of wideouts with BYU-specific names (Dax Milne, Gunner Romney, Isaac Rex). While some of his wideouts may see NFL rosters, they’re far from elite athletes. So while Wilson’s experience may make him more pro-ready than most, the change in competition level will be drastic.
Injuries: Avert your eyes. Wilson’s been dinged up enough to warrant a legitimate medical eval. He had shoulder surgery after his freshman year, which led to him missing spring ball, then his sophomore year was cut short after 9 games due to an injury to his hand. That said, people don’t seem all that worried, and neither the shoulder nor the hand were of any concern last year, but Wilson will need to protect his body better as he transitions to the NFL.
Scouting Report
Arm Talent: The first thing that pops off Wilson’s film is that he can put the ball anywhere on the field from any location on the field. He’s got an absolute cannon, and his ability to throw off-script from odd angles, different body positions, and a variety of arm slots is unparalleled—besting not only Trevor Lawrence but comparing favorably to the best in the NFL in that category. The ball comes out of his hand with ease, and the improvisational nature of his game pays dividends both on the little plays...
…and massive, Sportscenter-worthy splash plays.
Naturally, that loose and improvisational style of play can come with the occasional drawback. There are times when Wilson can be too cute with the ball (before this year, some would say reckless), but the math is certainly in his favor. He’s gonna hit way more often than he’s gonna miss. It’s also worth noting that the last guy to play this way and get the “reckless” tag was Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech. And while Mahomes will have the occasional play like this…
The benefits far outweigh the drawbacks. The same can be said for Wilson. The coaching staff may need to rein him in every once and a while, but they’d much rather have that problem than the other way around.
Accuracy: When Wilson’s on, he’s VERY on, and his best throws are dimes fit into difficult NFL windows. However, the ball gets away from him at times, leading to the occasional whiffs that dot his game tape. It’s not on the deepest throws, nor the most difficult ones, and these misses often seem to be a result of him relying a bit too much on his arm and not enough on his base. His incredible arm talent allows him to throw from all kinds of off-platform positions, but there are times when he’s forced to move in the pocket or simply when his feet aren’t moving with his progressions that the ball comes out funky and inaccurate.
There are lots of different types of accuracy concerns, but if you have to have one, this is one of the better ones to have. There’s nothing foundationally wrong with his stroke that’s holding him back, and it seems like increased attention to detail and some tweaks to his base could smooth out the bumps in a hurry.
Decision Making: Known as a diligent studier of film, Wilson is calm in the pocket and typically diagnoses the defense quickly before hitting the right man. However, you sometimes wonder how he got there (even if the end result works out). It’s always hard to tell when a player is freelancing or making the wrong read without knowing how they’re being coached and because he’s not always moving his feet with his progressions it can be harder to tell what he’s eyeing, but the same relaxed manner that permeates his throwing ability can—at times—make his play look a bit lackadaisical or unstructured. You want some of that “sandlot” style mentality when you’re improvising and extending plays, but a play that’s schemed open—especially from our staff—will be open at a much higher clip than one you have to work off-script to create. There are benefits to your QB being chill. You just don’t want them to be too chill.
To be clear, Wilson’s decision-making is far from a weakness, and a one-on-one film session alongside coaches breaking down his tape would quickly shed light on his thought process. Unless he presents himself in a manner that would make you doubt his ability to continue to improve in this regard, it’s not something I’d worry about.
Processing Speed/Anticipation: One of the greatest differentiators between good college quarterbacks and good pro quarterbacks is their ability to anticipate throws and let go of the ball before receivers are open. Wilson has this ability in spades—regularly releasing the ball before his receivers uncover. This is displayed most regularly in BYU’s healthy dose of back-shoulder fades, but inside and outside the hashes in the quick game as well.
A lot of quarterbacks have flamed out in the NFL because they didn’t anticipate throws in college and were never able to develop that skillset in the pros as the game sped up. The fact that Wilson is already seeing (and trusting) windows before they’re open greatly raises his floor as a player.
Athleticism: Wilson is an underrated athlete, likely falling around the Sam Darnold realm in terms of mobility. He doesn’t seem particularly explosive when moving laterally, but he’s got quick feet climbing the pocket and when he plants his foot in the ground and cuts upfield, he’s got surprising top-end speed (and even some wiggle in the open field).
You’re not gonna pound the rock with him—especially given his smaller frame—but he’s got more than enough athleticism to extend plays with his legs, run for first downs when guys are covered on third-and-short, or pull a handful of read options to keep defenses honest.
Versus Pressure: Wilson had the benefit of playing behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines while facing subpar competition, so there are naturally questions about his ability to slide in the pocket and deliver throws under pressure. However, those questions are based more on the lack of an ideal sample size than any troubling trends. According to PFF, Wilson was sacked only 12.7% of the time when pressured and had the third-highest passing grade under pressure across the entire FBS (with zero turnovers). According to ESPN, his total QBR when pressured (44.0) and when blitzed (94.5) were second in this class—only to Mac Jones. So his performance under pressure has actually been quite strong; he just needs more reps.
There are times when his fundamentals get sloppy under pressure, and as a good athlete but not a great one, Wilson will need to figure out when to bail and when to slide into the pocket against NFL pass rushes. He’ll also learn quickly that he won’t have the speed to routinely break front-shoulder out of the pocket. But his pocket awareness and movement skills already seem strong so there’s no reason to believe he won’t get there with further experience.
Leadership: It’s that time of the year again, where we have to figure out whether rumors of “personality concerns” are a case of boomer scouts not liking “the Hip Hop” or a prospect being too much of a turd to lead a team of grown men. Wilson is the only player in the top five quarterbacks who has even an inkling of “personality concerns,” but they seem much more likely to be nothing than the other way around.
The questions surrounding Wilson revolve around two things: (1) BYU named four offensive captains entering the 2020 season but Wilson was NOT one of them; and (2) this scathing Walter Football write-up from an “anonymous director of scouting from an NFL team”:
"Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? He's a backyard baller who is fun to watch."
"Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue -, parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all.
"His positives are that he's super competitive, not to get scared and won't back down, extremely confident, very smart with keen recall and teammates will play for him."
Let’s chat about the captain situation first. People forget that Wilson couldn’t finish his sophomore year due to injury so BYU had an open quarterback competition entering the fall. When the captains were announced, Wilson was excluded, but he was one of eight players selected to the team’s “leadership council.” You can imagine the BYU staff may not have wanted to tip their hand on their starting quarterback—thus ending the competition—by naming Wilson a captain over his competition. Additionally, each of the four players who were chosen as offensive captains were (1) entrenched multi-year starters and (2) guys who had already completed missionary work. I won’t pretend to know how BYU’s captain selection process operates or whether that plays a part, but that means those are like grown men. To me, this is not a red flag.
As for the character bashing, Wilson’s former and current teammates and coaches quickly came to his defense after the Walter Football article was published. When presented with the character concerns, Adam Schefter himself said he was shocked as he’d been calling around and had heard nothing but great things about Wilson. Even local journalists stepped forward, saying that—despite Wilson being the nephew of the founder of Jet Blue—he picked up shifts driving Door Dash to help pay for his QB coaching and—while staying in Southern California with a teammate—he’d show up with ramen noodles, bread, and peanut butter because he didn't want to be a burden on his host family’s food bill.
In short, the character concerns seem more like an old man bitching about avocado toast and less like a real problem. And if there was any inkling that Wilson wasn’t the right personality fit with the Niners, we’d be in a perfect situation to know. Despite any personnel moves that haven’t worked out, Shanahan and Lynch have done a great job of filtering out players who they didn’t think would mesh with the locker room. They’ll get to meet Wilson in person and—if that’s not enough—they have a connect with Wilson’s QB tutor—Beck played for a handful of years under Shanahan in Washington—and Fred Warner’s little brother—who was a defensive captain at BYU this past season. All this to say, the Niners should have a very very complete picture of Wilson as a person by the time the draft rolls around.
Summary
NFL Comp: Mini Mahomes
I’ve yet to dive into the All-22 film of the other dudes in our draft range, but at the moment Wilson is definitely my favorite quarterback in this class. His arm talent and off-schedule ability give him a tremendously high ceiling—with glimpses of Rodgers and Mahomes in his game—while his anticipation and work ethic raises his floor. His strengths are all things you can’t teach while his weaknesses seem imminently fixable with time and good coaching. He may be a tad less consistent than some would expect and the leap from BYU to the NFL will be a big one, but his skill set fits perfectly within Shanahan’s offense and he’d immediately allow us to open things up down the field while creating plus value off of broken plays.
In all likelihood, we won’t get the chance to draft him even if we wanted to. The tea leaves are all pointing to the Jets selecting him No.2 overall, where he’ll join Robert Saleh and Matt LaFleur in New York. But in case they don’t…
Go Niners 👍🏈