Running it Back (Again)
LFG
With the first wave of free agency all but wrapped up, the 49ers have made clear their plan for 2021: run it back, but this time without historically bad injury luck. After a season in which they lost the second-most adjusted games to injury of any team over the past twenty years, Niners brass has doubled down on the idea that their scheme, roster core, and locker room are strong enough that their main priority is retaining its pieces and going for another run.
That kind of thinking often leads to a “pushing the chips in” mentality that aims to win as much as possible during a tight championship window, and—when those championships don’t cascade as expected—often leads to the salary cap hell situations that both the Eagles and the Saints are currently digging themselves out of. It’s a way of thinking that innately prioritizes the short-term over the long-term. That said, the Niners’ situation is considerably different than that of the above-mentioned teams, and the multitude of factors surrounding this roster, its many free agents, and the effect of COVID and a new television deal on the current and future salary cap, make the moves seem poised to help us both in the short- and the long-run.
Contract Restructures
Let’s talk first about something that I’d hinted at in the free agency preview, and that’s the restructuring of the contracts of two big-name players that are coming off injuries who were expected to be cut this off-season.
First off, the Niners restructured the contract of Weston Richburg, knocking his base salary down to the league minimum and creating $6.9M in cap space in the process. As of now, this is not expected to be a Jerick McKinnon situation—where he gives it another shot to get healthy. Richburg is expected to retire, which would add an additional $3.5M in dead money to this year’s cap unless his retirement happens after June 1st (or designated as such)—in which case we can spread that charge over two years.
Unlike Richburg, the Niners seem hopeful that Dee Ford will make it back to the field and play this season. While Ford’s $11.6M injury guarantee as of April 1st made any contract negotiations more complicated, the Niners essentially restructured his deal to spread that $11.6M over two years. Ford’s contract is now a 2- rather than a 3-year deal, with base salaries of $4M and $2.4M, respectively, in 2021 and 2022 and approximately $10M worth of possible incentives during that time. By doing this, the Niners opened up $11.2M in cap space for the 2021 season.
It’s worth noting how the Niners’ approach to contract negotiations differs from other teams. Yes, Richburg doesn’t gain or lose any money in his contract restructure, so as long as he enjoyed his time in SF it makes sense for him to accept a new deal to help out the team’s salary cap. The same can’t be said for Ford. If he wanted to keep his base salary high and had declined a contract restructuring, he’d walk away with the same $11.6M this year that he’s going to make over the next two but would then be free to search out another team to supplement that with a new contract. On the Niners’ side, they could have taken Ford’s contract to salary arbitration, where they likely would have been able to shave off millions from what was owed.
Compare this to how the Raiders have seemingly gone about an off-season in which they’ve attempted to strong-arm guys into taking pay cuts or getting cut—a move which would have sent their best offensive lineman packing for nothing until the Cardinals jumped the free agent line with a last-minute trade offer—and has seemingly left a number of ex-players disgruntled. Instead, the Niners chose to approach Ford with the restructure and he chose to stick in SF and try to get healthy to hit incentives, rather than take the money and search for greener pastures.
While the Niners’ attempts to approach contract negotiations and roster moves in a more transparent and respectful way than some of the more “old school” franchises presents the obvious benefit of rooting for a team that seemingly treats its employees a bit better than most, I truly think it pays dividends on and off the field as well. We see that in how the team competes every week. We saw that with Ford’s restructure this year. We saw that with Raheem Mostert’s restructure last year—where he signed on the dotted line for a new contract after having a heart-to-heart with Kyle Shanahan in which they talked about life and family. And we saw that—in part—with the last-minute deal given to our biggest priority free agent.
Multi-Year Re-Signings
It’s safe to say we did NOT get a discount on Trent Williams’ new contract—which included a last-second call to Shanahan and a record-breaking 6-year/$138M deal that was finalized in the eleventh hour to outbid the Kansas City Chiefs.
That said, Williams’ contract is not as overbearing as it may seem. His initial cap hits are $8.2M (2021) and $14.1M (2022)—meaning his next two years on the books are cheaper than his last one—and the contract has outs after the 2023 and 2025 seasons. If you were to combine his annual salary with the accelerated dead cap figure that would accompany him if cut between 2023 and 2025, the contract is basically a 3-5 year deal @ $20M/year.
As for the sixth year in this extension, it’s really just for show. With a $33M cap hit, zero guaranteed money, and no signing bonus proration, it’s hard to imagine it going through as structured. The entire purpose of that hefty final year is to make Williams’ annual average value (AAV) equal $23.01M, which narrowly edges the Green Bay Packers’ David Bakhtiari ($23.00M) for the highest AAV for any offensive lineman, a hilariously petty addition that Bakhtiari himself has certainly appreciated.
Juice also reset his positional market with his new deal, increasing his already league-best fullback contract by a whopping $0.1M AAV. While he’s basically on a repeat contract four years later, he’ll only be making the veteran minimum in both 2021 and 2022 with cap hits of $2.3M and $3.0M, respectively, and while Juice’s cap hits hover between $6.6 and $7.6M over the last three years of his deal, the Niners—as they did with Williams—have built in a potential out following the 2023 season. After that year (in which he’ll be 32 years old), they can release him and only bite $2.7M in dead cap, with that number declining in each subsequent year.
So why did Juice take this deal? I’m sure familiarity and fit within the Shanahan scheme and the Niners’ locker room were big selling points, but the most tangible financial benefit Juice got from this contract versus the last one (or probably any deal given out to a fullback), is that while last time he had guarantees through his first two seasons, this time he has guarantees through his first three. As a man entering his thirties at a high-impact position, it’s not surprising that the extra year of guaranteed cash was appealing.
The last on the list of returning players to get multi-year extensions, but the first whom the Niners locked up, Emmanuel Moseley secured a two-year/$9.4M deal. A restricted free agent, the Niners could have kept Moseley on a one-year tender but decided he was important enough that they wanted to make him the only corner signed to a multi-year contract. His ability to play either out wide or in the slot likely has something to do with that, as does the fact that the way his contract is structured, his cap hit will be less than that of a second-round RFA tender, which is likely what we would have had to give him to keep him from getting poached.
One-year Deals
In addition to the one-year deals signed by restricted free agents Jeff Wilson, Marcell Harris, and Ross Dwelley, the Niners locked up considerably more veterans than we reasonably could have expected, securing the services of various returning starters who were expected to be out the door. This was likely due to a combination of each of these players’ recent injury history and the depressed COVID cap. Every name below will be looking to have a healthy and productive season in 2021 before departing for a bigger payday somewhere else in 2022.
Jason Verrett is the biggest name returning on one of these deals, as he’s our undisputed No.1 cornerback. A $5.5M contract with $4.5M guaranteed at signing is more than fair if he can stay healthy and produce anything like he did last year.
DJ Jones is back as our starting nose tackle, which means I can play this clip for at least one more season.
While he’s been a bit more durable in every season, Jones’ potential breakout season never really came to fruition last year. It’s hard for nose tackles to get paid, especially when they’re not putting up eye-popping stats. He’s hoping his unique blend of size and quickness will result in a bit more pass rush production to go along with a fully healthy season. His return means that we won’t have to address nose tackle early in the draft and/or throw Darrion Daniels into the fire before he’s ready.
K’Waun Williams tested the waters and took some visits, but ultimately re-signed as well, bringing back our third starting corner from last year’s unit (Sherman technically started, but due to injury it’s hard to say he was one of our core three in 2020). The salaries haven’t caught up to the importance of nickel corners in modern-day defenses, and whenever the cornerback market is down—like due to a COVID cap—the nickel market plummets. K’Waun played 13 or more games in five of his past six seasons before injuries limited him to eight in 2020. Like the others, he’s looking to leverage a healthy year into one last multi-year contract in 2022.
On the depth side of things, Jordan Willis was brought back on a one-year deal. He flashed a bit after the trade from the Bengals last year and while he was far from a showstopper, he certainly has enough promise to bring back for another go-around. They’ll be hoping that a year in their off-season program will help him.
Finally—and most surprisingly—Jaquiski Tartt was brought back for another go as well. With Tarvarius Moore having one year left on his rookie deal, the Niners bringing safety Tavon Wilson in from the Colts, and Jimmie Ward playing better last year in a role that saw him closer to the LOS as more of a versatile nickel/box safety, it’s hard to see where Tartt fits in. In particular, what does this mean for Moore and his future on the team beyond this season? All that said, we won’t turn down defensive versatility, and Tartt is clearly a hell of a player when he’s healthy.
While retaining so many of our aging veterans is certainly a testament to Shanahan and Lynch’s faith in and emphasis on locker room dynamics, retaining this many players who are either injury prone, on the wrong side of thirty, or both, is often a troubling sign of a team showing too much loyalty in players who are presenting diminishing returns. That said, this is a very unique case.
The COVID cap has depreciated the value of many of the Niners’ free agents, meaning the team had the choice of either letting them walk for pennies at the bottom of their value or retain them in hopes that their stocks will rebound in time for a massive spike in the cap in 2022. The main benefit for a franchise of having nearly 40 free agents is that we expected to be due for some compensation picks when some of those free agents signed elsewhere. With the league’s sunken cap preventing those contracts from breaching the threshold required for comp picks, there would have been no compensation if any of these players had walked. So if the alternative is having veteran players who have performed well signing one-year deals somewhere else—giving their new team either a chance at a massive bargain or a chance to let the player walk the next year and accrue comp picks in return—then why not bring them back to the Niners? While there’s marginal risk that these players either can’t stay on the field, that their play dips, or that their presence stunts the growth of younger players behind them, the potential benefits far outweigh those concerns. In simplest terms, it’s the Niners following the buy-low, sell-high train of thought.
New Faces
While the Niners weren’t overflowing with cap space, the restructuring of Richburg and Ford’s contracts gave them some wiggle room to bring in a few moderately priced additions—some of whom could have major roles in 2021.
Samson Ebukam comes over from the Rams, and—as evidenced by the percentile marks of his pre-draft testing results—he absolutely fits the bill as an athletic freak on the edge.
Ebukam’s incredible pro day really launched him up draft boards and eventually got him selected in the fourth round by the Rams. From the same Eastern Washington class that had Cooper Kupp and Kendrick Bourne, Ebukam was mostly a rotational linebacker for the Rams and played most-often in a two-point stance. That will change with the Niners.
With his 4.50 speed and an insane 1.53 10-yard split, the Niners will put Ebukam on the edge with his hand on the ground and hope that he can emulate some of the speed rush that Dee Ford brought opposite a (hopefully) healthy Bosa. In what may have been their first-ever call, Kocurek already told him to work on his first-step get-off (it often doesn’t match his athleticism, but out of a two-point it’s hard to judge how much of that is him and how much is schematic fit), and he will—at least—be expected to be a primary player in the Niners’ turbo packages. If he can be more than that, then that’s icing on the cake.
It’s worth noting that Ebukam is far from a super athletic dude with no production. Despite playing mostly as a rotational player with the Rams, he ranked 36th out of 111 edge rushers in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric and the Niners hope Ebukam can become their Shaq Barrett—a talented edge rusher who was buried behind elder players in a scheme fit that wasn’t perfect and emerges as a plus performer on a new squad.
On the offensive side, Alex Mack was brought in to shore up the interior line. Long one of—if not the singular—best center in football, Mack played under Shanahan in Cleveland and then—after Shanahan’s endorsement—was brought in to the Falcons with a hefty contract. Now he is 35 and his play has dipped, but he’ll surely be motivated/look better playing under Shanahan than with the dregs of the Falcons offense, and our hope is that he still has some top-10 play left in him. The Niners seem to be banking heavily on that because Mack’s deal—which was originally believed to be a one-year contract—is actually a three-year pact that averages nearly $5M/year. While the Niners have dialed his cap figure appropriately ($3M in 2021) and can save $4.3M off the cap by releasing him in 2022 if age has taken its toll, this isn’t a “ghost year” deal. They’d be taking on some dead cap even with the savings.
While Mack’s age and recent dip in production may cause some worry, the Niners have had interior pass protection issues for the majority of the past year and a half and there’s a very valid argument that if we were better in that regard we would have won the Super Bowl in 2019. At the very least, Mack will improve those issues dramatically and allow Daniel Brunskill to commit to learning right guard. Mack will get the protection calls down and get people in the right position, and if the Niners still tap an interior lineman in the middle rounds of the draft, he can be an excellent tutor for them.
Getting much less pub but a very exciting pickup in his own right is interior lineman Zach Kerr. A nose tackle in the “too quick to be this big” DJ Jones mold, Kerr was a rotational piece for the Panthers last year but his thirteen pressures, six QB knockdowns and two sacks are pretty impressive numbers given his role. Over nearly 400 snaps, he was actually graded by PFF as the 10th best interior lineman in the league (out of 125 qualifiers). I can’t say I’ve watched him play a ton, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kerr—on a cheap one-year contract—is next season’s Kerry Hyder.
On the back end of the roster, the Niners picked up Tavon Wilson, a multi-year starter for the Lions and—most previously—a reserve for the Colts. With Ward, Tartt, and Moore, Wilson is certainly a depth addition who will likely see a lot of run on special teams. The same goes for wide receiver Trent Sherfield from the Cardinals. Long-time special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was let go, and those new additions are likely expected to step into his place.
What does it mean for 2021?
While we’re relying heavily on one-year deals at crucial positions, locking up so many of our own and bringing in key additions means that we can enter the draft without our hand being forced. If we’d lost Trent Williams we’d likely need to go with an offensive lineman early. If we hadn’t locked up Verrett, the same could easily be said for cornerback. Patching up those holes, even if some of the patches are short-term, means that we have draft flexibility. We’d certainly be smart to still address those two positions (McGlinchey’s contract is ending shortly and Verrett is on a one-year deal) as well as others, but we are no longer forced into zeroing in on a single position and reaching for need over value.
But the many deals we gave out—and in particular Trent Williams’—point to a major change in the future and one that has basically been confirmed with the Niners trading up to the No.3 pick in the draft just this morning. The Niners have backloaded their contracts to coincide with the expected spike in cap space in 2022 and on, but they’ll still need to save somewhere in order to retain their young core for the foreseeable future. Those savings are almost certainly to happen at quarterback. We should expect the Niners to be starting a QB on a rookie contract by 2022 (at the latest). After the trade this morning, we’re likely to find out who that quarterback will be by the end of April.
More on that next time.
Go Niners 👍🏈