Week 15: @ Cowboys

You know it’s bad when you recognize this as a meme

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys (4-9; 4th in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/20
Location: Arlington, TX
Kickoff: 10:00 AM PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

What was once tabbed for the Sunday night game has since been un-flexed into an innocuous 10 AM start on CBS, punishment for the underwhelming play and massive injury lists accompanying both these squads. Like us, the Cowboys have a legitimate claim that injuries have thrown off their preseason expectations. Unlike us, these Dallas Cowboys are genuinely not a good football team. But coming off their most impressive win of the season—a 30-7 drubbing of the Bengals—and with a 2-2 record since their bye week, they can at least make the claim that they are no longer a terrible one. And that’s enough to make this a ball-game.

INJURY REPORT

While there’s still nothing official, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is likely out for this week and probably the rest of the season… by Thursday, Daniel Brunskill (shoulder), Fred Warner (stinger), Raheem Mostert (ankle), K’Waun Williams (ankle), D.J. Jones (ankle), and Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring) were all limited participants in practice. From most-likely to least-likely, I ordered that list as a pure guess as to the likelihood that each of those guys plays… George Kittle’s (foot) practice window opened this week. While he was involved in routes and other activities by Thursday, it is highly highly unlikely that he plays this week. Depending on what happens on Sunday both in our game and around the league, it may make the most sense to shelve him for 2021… Colton McKivitz was put on the COVID list earlier this week. That combined with Hroniss Grasu (knee) not practicing Thursday and Ben Garland (ankle) not likely to return at all this year makes for gigantic question marks along the interior. Even if we’re assuming Brunskill plays, could we see the first of CFL practice-squadder Dakoda Shepley?… finally, updates on the status of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) are still vague, but at the moment he’s probably not coming back this year.

OFFENSE

Probably (hopefully) not an in-game photo? [Aaron Doster / AP]

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is a holdover from the Jason Garrett regime, and it’s widely believed he’ll be a head man in the NFL sooner rather than later. There’s naturally some debate as to whether Moore is truly a whiz kid who was hamstrung by a head coach on his way out—which was ironically the exact same label applied to Jason Garrett when he was under Wade Phillips a decade ago—or simply a competent pilot of an offense with a sizable talent advantage. 

Regardless, the pure yardage totals paint a favorable picture of his ability. Despite finishing last season 8-8, the Boys had the 2nd-best Offensive DVOA in all of football under Moore’s tutelage and exploded out of the gates this year—putting up over 500 yards of offense in three straight games—before cratering as injuries to their quarterback and offensive line depleted this star-studded unit. Since then, the Cowboys have at least plugged the most glaring holes in their sinking ship, and Dak Prescott has made himself a lot of money.

In the four games that Prescott played and finished, he averaged 422 yards passing, completed a career high 68% of his passes, threw for 9 TDs vs 3 INTs and rushed for an additional three scores. While the Boys were 1-3 in those games (and really should have been 0-4 if not for an absurd onside kick), the offense was not primary culprit.

Here are Dallas’ splits this year when Dak started and finished the game compared to when any other quarterback was under center, with rankings compared to the current season-long averages across the league.

If you’re wondering who edged them out for last place in three categories, it’s obviously the Jets every time

Other than the running game and turnovers (Dak did lose three fumbles on top of his three picks in those first four games), the offense absolutely cratered after Prescott went down. But losing their quarterback wasn’t the only problem. 

Their unreasonably stacked offensive line has also been ravaged by injuries. Pro Bowl right tackle La’El Collins sustained a hip injury in the preseason and has yet to play a snap. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith—of “my arms are so huge I need to wear knee braces on them” fame—played only two games before being shelved the season with a neck injury. Rookie center Tyler Biadasz went down in week 8 and has yet to return. And even All-Pro guard Zack Martin—who has finished in the top 5 or better in PFF rating in all seven of his NFL seasons and was moved to tackle out of desperation following the bye—has been out since week 12. What’s left from what has long been considered one of the top offensive lines in football are the two Connors—McGovern and Williams—who are still holding it down rather well at the guard positions. Unfortunately, they’re now starting journeyman and former-Niner Joe Looney at center and while their situation at tackle has improved from its nightmarish status earlier in the season, it remains far from an offensive strength.

Running behind this line is Ezekiel Elliott, one of the best backs in the game but one who’s in the midst of an off-year. As the offensive line has slowly gelled and the team has re-committed to force-feeding him touches, Zeke has improved, and he can still turn would-be 2-yard gains into 5- and 6-yard ones with his blend of size, athleticism, and burst. But that’s only when he finds a crease and those creases have been hard to come by.

With the OL decimated due to injury, the real depth of this offense is in its pass-catchers. Amari Cooper will drop some balls, but he’s a great route runner who excels after the catch. The slender and acrobatic rookie CeeDee Lamb has been impressive as a rookie, even if his numbers dropped off significantly after Dak went down. Michael Gallup continues to fill the mercurial “that guy” position opposite their No.1–a spot long held down by Terrence Williams which can be best described as “I don’t really know if they’re that good or not but they do make a handful of big plays each year.” Dalton Schultz is a reliable option at tight end. Even Cedrick Wilson doesn’t suck.

But getting these talented skill players the ball continues to be a major challenge for this Cowboys offense, which is helmed by the ghost of Andy Dalton and an offensive line that struggles tremendously to protect him. To be fair, the Boys spent the bye week recommitting to: (A) protecting the ball—with 4 turnovers over the last four games after 20 over their first nine—and (B) finding more creative ways to get their playmakers in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts and a passing game that has embraced lower volume and shorter completions as to protect their suspect tackles.

The Boys were a dumpster fire entering their bye week and spent that time off committing to protecting the ball—with four turnovers over the last four games after twenty through their first nine—and finding more creative ways to get their playmakers the ball in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts, as well as a passing game that has embraced lower volume and lower risk—a style that better fits the demeanor of Andy Dalton.

These adjustments—along with a healthy Dalton—have resulted in the Cowboys putting up 370+ yards of offense twice in the past two weeks, while their recent 30-7 win over the Bengals marked their biggest margin of victory this season (their previous three wins came by a combined total of 7 points). This is an offense that has a couple glaring weaknesses but has at least settled into an identity over the past month, even if that identity is a far cry from the explosive monster they were to start the season.  

DEFENSE

This year’s had a whole lot of this [DallasCowboys.com]

Former 49ers head-man Mike Nolan was brought in as the Boys’ DC this off-season. This despite the team understanding that they didn’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, the front office lacking the patience and/or commitment to adjust to that scheme, and Nolan being given the orders to “run a multiple scheme with 3-4 elements.” That’s gone about as well as you would have expected.

After struggling mightily to start the season—allowing an average of 431 yards and 36 points over their first four games—Nolan quickly switched to a “simpler” scheme in hopes that the Cowboys would perform a bit better, but that hasn’t amounted to much.

This Cowboys defense, which was recently known for its dangerous and deep defensive line and young stars at linebacker, is now a shell of its former self. Their moves along the defensive line have largely backfired. They dumped a rarely-used Kerry Hyder to clear space to add Gerald McCoy to a three-year $18.3M contract, a deal which—as McCoy has yet to play this season—has since been dissolved on injury settlement but only after doling out of all of its guaranteed cash. They then added the XXL version of Aldon Smith, a move which looked brilliant when he blew up at the beginning of the year—totaling four sacks in a single game and at once point having the top pass-rush win rate in the league—but an extra 40 pounds, five years off from football, and way too many snaps have gassed him out down the stretch. While DeMarcus Lawrence is still an absolute stud, he’s been the only one holding it down on this once feared defensive line.

In the back seven it doesn’t get much better. While the Boys returned the large majority of their linebackers and secondary from last year, the play of both units has plummeted across the board. Once again, I will preface the below chart of PFF ratings with the caveat that their grading system is far from perfect, but when it comes to massive outliers on large sample sizes, trends can be telling. And this chart of grades from the Cowboys’ back seven players in 2019 versus 2020 has a very obvious trend.

At linebacker, the hyper athletic duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch are just two years removed from being considered one of the best linebacker duos in the league—finishing 6th and 5th respectively in PFF grading for their position during the 2018 season. Now they look lost as Dallas’ D gets gashed on the ground. While in the secondary, this was never a true lockdown crew, but it was a largely functional one. That’s barely the case anymore.

You don’t get dips in play across the board—and double-digit drops for six of nine of your major contributors—without something being foundationally wrong. It would be one thing if this was meant to be a transition year, in which the Cowboys were cleaning house to go young and bring in guys who fit the 3-4 scheme, but since management and coaching can’t really agree on where they should land schematically, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or at least, any light that retains this defensive staff beyond this year.

MATCHUP

With Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder giving us a massive advantage on the edges, the Cowboys will likely try to attack the interior of our run defense with an assortment of quick plunges as well as the kind of baby draws that the Bills used early in week 13. While their OL play has been better in pass-protection than run-blocking, this isn’t a team that wants to get into many clear passing downs, so keeping Zeke’s runs to 2- and 3-yard gains versus 6- and 7-yard ones will be key.

While Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback and one of the better backups in the league, he’s still a lesser version of the same guy whose been a mediocre-at-best starter for at least the past three years. With their offensive line intact, that could have been enough, but in the Boys’ current state the Niners should look to confuse Dalton, take away the layups underneath, and mix-up pressures on passing downs. This is not a Cowboys team that can survive if forced into a high-volume passing game, so that’s exactly what we should push them into.

Offensively, whether it’s CJ Beathard or Nick Mullens, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, we need to protect the football and RUN THE BALL. The Cowboys have the 27th-ranked defense in rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards in the league (2,115 yards) as well as the worst yards/carry average (5.1 ypc). With us trotting out our second or third quarterback and with many weapons missing, they’re sure to load the box and will likely send extra bodies on blitzes so that their guys can focus on running, chasing, and hitting rather than reading and reacting. That means misdirection in the backfield and picking them apart with play action, RPOs, and the short-to-intermediate game will be key to keeping the Cowboys honest. Last week, we had plenty of open looks against a stout defense and a dominant defensive line, but we simply couldn’t connect. This week, against a much-lesser defense, there’s truly no excuse.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Racial Slurs 23, Niners 15

Yurp [Niners Wire]

Back by popular demand... The Eagles Game 2.0!  

What’s that? You hated that game? Well too bad, this is the world we live in. 

In a game where our defense held Washington to 193 yards of total offense and three field goals, the 17 points allowed off turnovers—two on giveaways returned for touchdowns—were the difference in yet another hideous battle with a current NFC East leader.

OFFENSE

The big keys heading into this game were to control game flow and prevent costly turnovers. You could MAYBE argue that we kind of accomplished one of those. But not really. In an all-too-familiar case of deja vu, we massively out-gained our opponent in terms of yardage (344-193), but lengthy cold stretches and turnovers trumped whatever successes we had.

Believe it or not, this was nearly the exact same offensive output we manufactured in our last win against the Rams (345 yards of offense, 16 offensive points, 3 turnovers), but it sure felt a helluva lot worse in a loss against a (now) six-win team.

Hamstrung again. There’s nothing concrete yet, but it seems likely that Deebo’s latest injury—a hamstring strain on the very first play from scrimmage—will shelve him for the rest of the year. Hamstrings are fickle, and if sitting him now will increase the chances of a healthy hammy next year, we shouldn’t think twice—even if the thought of what our offensive output may look like without him paints a grim picture.

Last year we found out pretty quick what our offense looks like without Kittle. This year, we can add on what it looks like without Kittle AND Deebo. Obviously, it’s not pretty.

Utilizing so many position-less skill players presents us with some obvious advantages in terms of matchups and what we like to do schematically, but if it has a drawback it’s that the more unique a player you have, the harder they are to replace when injured. With his very first touch going for nine yards on a handoff, it was clear that Deebo was going to be a big part of our game plan. Just as it was equally clear the second he pulled up gimpy that we’d have no means of replacing his role once he went down.

While Deebo’s intangible benefits and knack for flash plays are fairly obvious to see, I think people really underestimate his pure statistical impact as well. The fact that Deebo wasn’t an immediate full-time starter last year and that he plays such a unique hybrid role in our offense often means he’s left out of discussions about the league’s top young wideouts. So I decided to tabulate some splits that better show his box score impact.

Here’s a list of the many receivers drafted in that 2019 class who have established themselves as full-time starters, but only including games where the wideout plays at least 50% of the team’s snaps. While this doesn’t change the math for guys like Metcalf, McLaurin, and AJ Brown—guys who were full-time starters from day one—it gives a fairer shake for players like Deebo and Diontae Johnson who grew into full-time roles and may have been knocked out of games due to injury.

I’ve included Deebo twice on this chart, first showing his raw stats for any game where he played over 50% of offensive snaps and second presenting his numbers from the first Seattle game of 2019 on (SEA+)—when his snap share jumped from 59% over the first seven games to 82% the remainder of the way. While I believe that run of games more accurately compares him to his peers, as you can see below, his figures are impressive either way:

Aside from games and touchdowns, Deebo leads or is close-to-leading the class in every statistical category. This despite consistently sharing looks and operating in a run-heavy offense that’s been missing its starting quarterback for the majority of 2020. He out-touches guys in wide-open, pass-heavy offenses like Metcalf and Johnson. His yardage is on par with or better than dudes who are undisputed No.1 and No.2 options in McLaurin and A.J. Brown.

In short, Deebo fuxxxx. While we missed him in this game and will miss him for the rest of the season if it comes to that, we need to do whatever it takes to get him as healthy as possible moving forward because he is an absolute foundational piece to the long-term plans of our offense.

Runnin on Empty. We started the game with wide open sets and empty looks that gave Mullens clearer coverage reads, both to settle in our quarterback and to soften up the defense for the running game. Initially it kinda worked, with a promising opening drive fizzling out in Washington territory after a contested drop and a touchdown drive that included 40 yards on the ground coming soon after. 

However, this plan fizzled out rather quickly, and our next eight(!) offensive drives ended in either punts or turnovers before Juice scored early in the fourth. While the commentators seemed to point to the idea that Washington’s defensive line suddenly “turned it on,” there were opportunities to be had, even with a clear trench disadvantage. We didn’t seize those opportunities because of too many mistakes, penalties, and sacks putting us in down-and-distances that we simply haven’t been able to convert all year.

Plus, there was one fundamental problem…

Issues in the Mid-Game. One of the many issues with shaping an offense around a specific quarterback and that quarterback no longer being available is the fact that the offensive scheme has been built around the missing quarterback’s strengths. Not the backup’s strengths. And Mullens and Jimmy G are very different quarterbacks.

Here’s a breakdown of Mullens’ passing stats, separated by the depth of the intended target on each play. I broke the passes down into these three categories because I wanted to differentiate between RB shoot routes, play action leak outs, and screens (<3 yards) versus our short-to-intermediate game (4-13 yards) and finally our longer-developing passes down the field (14+ yards).

Jimmy has never excelled at throwing vertical routes, but we have seen him have success throwing routes like deep outs, wheels, and post-curls—all throws that would land in that intermediate-to-deep range of 14+ yards down the field. However, where we’d expect him to really do well is in that middle range—those 4- to 13-yard completions—where his quick diagnoses, lightning-fast release, and plus underneath accuracy can all shine. As for “<3 yards,” every quarterback in the NFL would be expected to be decent at those.

But here are Mullens’ splits in this game: 

Of note, on his pick six, Mullens was looking at a 5-yd in initially (which was open) before moving over late to the swing route that got returned the other way

In his defense, he was under duress for much of the game and those five drops could have easily been eight (I didn’t include drops where contact from defender came at the same time as the ball). However, in everyone else’s defense, the Niners leaned towards easy completions and short game specifically because they knew the pass rush would be a problem, and a handful of those drops were on late, high passes over the middle, which—for a wideout—is basically a death sentence. 

Ultimately, Mullens seems to be at his best when he’s allowed to see things develop, which means those 10-20 yard completions on post-curls, comebacks, and the like—all routes that we oscillate between lacking the time to protect or the personnel to execute. He’ll show flashes of being able to get the ball out quick underneath (see: Giants game), but overall his timing and accuracy are too up-and-down to sustain drives while relying heavily on those kinds of plays. Unfortunately, those are the kinds of plays we’ve built this offense around and the kind of plays we have the talent upfront to regularly protect.

Again, the struggles we had in the short-to-intermediate game weren’t all on Mullens, and this game was certainly the greatest exaggeration of the differences between him and our starting quarterback. But occasional linebacker blindness aside, Jimmy G could get this offense humming because (when healthy) he was money on those quick-hitters. Mullens it seems, will never be that kind of player. If we had more healthy weapons and he was in an offense that emphasized different concepts, that might not be such a big deal. But this year, in this offense, with who we have available, it has been absolutely that.

DEFENSE

While the opponent should certainly be taken into account, this was one of our defense’s finer performances in a season when we’ve had quite a few. The 193 yards allowed were a season-low and our first time holding a team under 200 yards of offense this season (for reference, we held an opposing team under 200 yards of offense FIVE times last year), while the Racial Slurs’ scoring drives spanned 29, 13, and (right after Fred Warner got hurt) 72 yards. Even when they were scoring, they weren’t exactly instilling a ton of confidence.

Of the 13 offensive drives Washington had, nine ended in punts or turnovers, and seven were three-and-outs, including the last four in a row. This was a dominant performance. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough.

Clamps. Despite entering the game without our top three options at nickel corner, Washington didn’t really have the manpower nor the creativity to exploit our clear weakness. As expected, our secondary was very comfortable rotating through coverages—including plenty of man—and while the Slurs had some sporadic success throwing to their backs after Fred Warner went down, Dre Greenlaw’s impressive third-down stop to give our offense the ball late in the game was a prime example of the immense speed of our linebacker corps.

Alex Smith looked off from the outset—the calf injury was potentially something he’d been dealing with leading up to the game—while Dwayne Haskins… looked like Dwayne Haskins. The result was a passing attack that combined for 15-of-32 passing attempts for 108 yards and one pick. The longest pass they completed on the day went for 13 yards.

Our coverage wasn’t overly complicated, but it is worth pointing out an interesting sub-package that we employed a few times, typically (if not entirely) on third downs.

Here we’re in a dime package with Witherspoon subbing in as our fourth corner. However, instead of Ward and Moore playing in their traditional deep safety roles, Ward has slid into the nickel, Witherspoon has entered as a boundary corner, and Sherman has dropped back into a safety role.

Even if they only run Cover 2 man out of this look (I didn’t comb closely through the film, but that was the coverage they played the few times I saw it), this change-up makes sense for a number of reasons. First-off, it allows you to slide Jimmie Ward down near the line of scrimmage, where he’s excelled the past few weeks; secondly, it gives you a smaller, quicker player in Ward to work as your primary slot with K’Waun, Taylor, and Moseley out with injury; finally, it allows Sherman to use his intelligence in space as a safety—a role which many in the league think he’s destined for sooner rather than later—while preventing him from being out-quicked or out-ran by younger wideouts while in man coverage.

We talked about how Dontae Johnson being forced into the nickel may have made the Niners wary of dialing up too much man coverage against Cole Beasley and the Bills last week. While Dontae would still play in the slot in this set, he can now line up on a bigger target rather than a quicker one—with Ward taking the lead slot receiver—and the Niners still have the ability to go man without worrying about a potential mismatch due to injury.

Interior Re-design. With DJ Jones out due to injury and Kevin Givens gone due to COVID protocols after traveling home for the birth of his daughter on Wednesday (congrats!), there was some concern entering this game that the combination of Kentavius Street and UDFA Darrion Daniels would have some issues with Washington’s interior running game. 

Rather than pile too much responsibility on Street and Daniels—who combined for 48 of 63 possible defensive snaps—the Niners opted to rotate their hybrid defensive ends inside more often, which gave Dion Jordan a season-high 49 snaps as the next man up on the edge. The re-made defensive line did just fine. It may not have been spectacular, and the Slurs did have some success on the ground in the second half, but 47 of their 98 rushing yards came on the drive where Warner got hurt. After that adjustment period both our defensive line and our new linebackers settled in and helped the Niners close out the game (defensively at least) in impressive fashion.

So… where does this leave us? Most likely, it leaves us in the unenviable no-man’s land between stumping for better draft position and sneaking into the playoffs. We are now two full games behind the Cardinals—the seventh seed in the NFC if the season ended today—and playing catchup behind teams like the Vikings and Bears. 

With three games to play, it’s certainly still possible to catch the Cardinals—especially since we play them in two weeks and they must still face the Rams in week 17—but any discussion about us sneaking into the playoffs starts with winning out. And then getting a decent amount of help. 

Go Niners 👍🏈

Wk14: vs. Intolerance

Totally established in 1932. Definitely not a few months ago when FedEx threatened to pull their sponsorship

Opponent: Washington Racial Slurs (5-7; T-1st in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/13
Location: Glendale, AZ (lol)
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Don’t look now but—despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—this team doesn’t suck. In fact, with a record equal to ours, tied in first in the NFC East, and having won three in a row, Washington—fresh off a not-that-surprising upset of the then-undefeated Steelers—has a ton of momentum right now. And perhaps even more impressive, the two men at the core of their turnaround—a QB who nearly lost his leg to sepsis and a head coach who just beat cancer while in-season during a pandemic—have made Washington—again, despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—a decently likable team as well.

INJURY REPORT

Deebo Samuel missed practice on Wednesday but was expected to be back Thursday. With the way he plays, I feel like he’s destined to be on and off the practice field throughout his career. He should be good-to-go by Sunday... Tom Compton had a head injury during last week’s game. That in conjunction with the concussion he sustained a few weeks back during walk-throughs (can’t make this up) means Colton McKivitz is likely to get his second start and will have to play major minutes... Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams are both questionable to return this week. While the Slurs’ passing attack is far from devastating, getting either back would be a big boost in the nickel... no word yet on Ben Garland’s return. Which means it’s not likely to be on Sunday.

OFFENSE

#11 in your programs, only one of those digits in your hearts [Nic Antaya/Getty Images]

Alex Smith is awesome. This offense is not. 

While Smith brings a high-level IQ and “don’t fuck it up” competency level that last year’s first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has yet to show in the NFL (thus leading to his benching), a 36-year-old Smith, coming off 17(!) leg surgeries, who hasn’t played in two years, is obviously not lighting up the scoreboard. Nor are they asking him to.

Smith has been shelved since midway through 2018, but he hasn’t missed much in terms of the offensive revolution in Washington. They’re not the “run the ball, throw a checkdown on third-and-long, punt” offense of yesteryears, but their raw production is probably pretty similar. In terms of DVOA, they’re the 27th-ranked offense, 30th-ranked passing attack, and 17th-ranked rushing game. While they’re certainly the least explosive offense we’ll face the remainder of the way, those rankings undersell this offense at least a tiny bit in that they play strong complementary football with their defense and do an excellent job of not beating themselves.

The Slurs lean on their offensive line—which is strong across the board but especially on the interior—and their backfield duo of Antonio Gibson—the rookie size-speed sledgehammer who may miss the game with turf toe—and JD McKissic—2020’s variation of the scat back rando who Alex Smith makes PPR relevant with his proclivity for check downs. But this isn’t Jimmy Raye “run-run-pass” territory, the Slurs actually throw the ball the 7th-most on first down—leaning heavily on the short-to-intermediate game—as they understand they lack the horses to get out of third-and-longs with regularity.

That’s because out wide they only have a single legitimate weapon. That’s Terry McLaurin, the highly-polished second-year wideout who has more targets this season than the Slurs’ next four top-targeted wideouts combined. Outside of him they have the on-again, off-again contributions of tight end Logan Thomas, who—as a former quarterback—is a poor blocker but is their only size threat in the red zone. All the other wideouts suck. Some have some athletic potential. Some may develop. But right now, they are at best replacement level players.

Their entire offensive game plan is to set up third-and-manageable, get as many first downs as possible, and win the field position game to set up the clear strength of this team: their defense.

DEFENSE

Draft Capitallllll [Inside the Star]

Ron Rivera’s hiring was labeled a slam dunk by many, if not all, media pundits. Not only because he brought stability, discipline, and likability to a franchise that was severely lacking in all of the above, but because many believed his 4-3 defensive prowess would immediately transform the Racial Slurs into one of the best D’s in the business. And it has. Despite their issues on offense, this unit is currently ranked 4th in the country in Defensive DVOA.

It starts up front, where Washington has invested as much draft capital as we have on the defensive line. Chase Young (2020 - 2nd overall), the jewel of this year’s draft, has performed as well as expected, his arrival coinciding with the second-year emergence that Montez Sweat (2019 - 26th overall) was due for as he grew into his frame. Former Alabama teammates Jonathan Allen (2017 - 17th overall) and Da’Ron Payne (2018 - 13th overall) man the inside, while Ryan Kerrigan (2011 - 11th overall) and Tim Settle (2018 - 5th rounder) fill out the rotation. This is a unit that can at least make the claim of being the top defensive line in the nation and currently ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate. 

Behind them, they have an underrated linebacker corps, which largely excels in coverage. Cole Holcomb looks like he may have been a find in the 5th round of last year’s draft. He does everything well, especially against the pass while Kevin Pierre-Louis has issues moving forward but is strong in coverage as well. If there’s a weak spot it’s likely Jon Bostic, who I’ve never really thought was all that good but is clearly doing something right as he’s started 73 games over the past 7 years (albeit on 5 different teams) and is their full-time Mike. 

In the secondary, Ronald Darby, a year after absolutely tanking his value with by far his worst season during a contract year, has returned to form opposite Kendall Fuller, while their two backup safeties—Kamren Curl and Deshazor Everett—have largely outplayed the injured starters they replaced. They benefit from the havoc that the front four creates, but they’re a formidable unit in their own right.

MATCHUP

Defensively, if we win the line of scrimmage—particularly on the interior—we should win the day. Key the run game, tackle well in space, and don’t get killed in the curl-flats. Due to the matchups in this game versus last, I’d assume that last bit will be less of a problem since (a) Smith does not have the arm strength of Allen and (b) the Niners should be more comfortable mixing it up with man coverage. If we do that, expect Terry McLaurin to be moved wherever Dontae Johnson is, and expect Johnson to have some help.

McLaurin is the one dude you truly have to stop in their passing game, particularly between the 20’s. Once you’re inside the 10’s, he can still hurt you, but that’s when the focus turns to Logan Thomas, who—at 6-6 250 pounds—has 5 of their 12 receiving touchdowns on the year. On the ground, I’d guess Peyton Barber takes over for Gibson if he’s out with turf toe while McKissic is their third down back. If we can put any kind of pressure on Smith, and hopefully we can given their OL is better in the run game than in pass protection, we should be able to force plenty of check downs. 

Alex Smith doesn’t protect the ball as well as he has in the past—in fact his 4-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio is well below average. But his stats don’t tell the whole story. His leadership and intelligence have shown through during Washington’s winning streak, and after our showing on Monday, they’re sure to think they can hit our curl-flats as a replacement for some of the consistent yards that they lost with Gibson. This isn’t a team that’s afraid of dinking and dunking when they have to. After all, that’s largely how they just beat the Steelers. This could be a slog.

While I think this defense is for real—and their DL is definitely for real—there’s a chance they could be a bit overrated as of late. They’ve played exactly one team in the past seven contests with an Offensive DVOA in the top half of the league. That was the 15th-ranked Lions, who—even without Kenny Golladay—diced them up through the air while De’Andre Swift totaled 149 yards from scrimmage and a tug. Conversely, during that same time we’ve faced six teams (five in a row) with Offensive DVOA’s within the top 8.

Early in the season the Slurs seemed susceptible to the run—allowing 129+ rushing yards to five straight teams during their 5-game losing streak—but they’ve since allowed only two 100-yard rushing performances in the past five contests, both in losses. In fact, this is a team that is 5-0 when it holds the opposition under 100 yards rushing and 0-7 when it doesn’t. I do think we have a speed advantage so I’d expect the Niners to test the edges early in this game, both in the run, pass, and run-extension swing/touch pass game. In this matchup in particular, the speedy turf of Arizona’s stadium may come in handy. That is, if we can block and execute well enough to create runways for our backs and our receivers after the catch.

While finding some amount of success on the ground and keeping Mullens protected and comfortable will be necessary to be successful on Sunday, taking care of the ball is probably the most important variable on offense. Six straight games of 2+ turnovers is not sustainable, particularly not against a defense as stingy and an offense as plodding (but opportunistic) as Washington’s. 

Protect the ball, stay on schedule. There have been an unfortunate number of games that we’ve lost this year because we couldn’t do those two things with consistency. If we want to keep our playoff hopes alive, that will have to change on Sunday.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Bills 34, Niners 24

This guy tied a career-high in catches [Christian Petersen/Getty Images]

It’s hard to say what was the most telling stat of this game: was it the 449 yards allowed, the 31 first downs(!), the near-ten minute disparity in time of possession against a team that averaged 3.0 yds/carry, or the sixth straight game where we’ve had at least two turnovers? 

All that matters is that all those things happened, and it resulted in a game that was a fledgling shootout until it wasn’t. Now, the Niners’ margin of error for making the playoffs is practically zero.

OFFENSE

Save for two clunker drives in the first half—one ending on third down with an open Jordan Reed incidentally blocking the pass to an open Kendrick Bourne—our offense moved the ball very effectively in this game. With 402 yards on 60 offensive plays, we actually had more yards per play (6.7 to 6.6.) than the Bills did, but in what ended up being a purely offensive affair, we simply didn’t capitalize on enough opportunities.

The Run Game. On our first drive of the game, it looked like we were going to shred the Bills on the ground. Even though we started the drive from our own three and had our ill-fated third down and fourth down runs get stuffed short of the goal line, we had 10 carries for 44 yards on that drive—more than half of our total rushing yards on the day.

But when you look back at the film there are some pretty clear reasons for the Niners’ apparent lack of success in the ground game. First off, we got down in a hurry in the second half so game flow dictated we get away from the run. We threw a pick on the second play of the drive following our half-opening field goal, meaning we were looking at a 17-point deficit by the time we got the ball back. This in a game where the opposing offense was methodically dicing us up and had shown the ability to milk clock without an effective run game. Naturally, we had to lean more pass-heavy. While our first drive featured just over half of our rushing yardage on the day, it also featured just under half of our total carries. That’s clearly not what we wanted. 

Secondly, our raw stats of 21 carries for 86 yards on 4.1 yard/carry don’t hop off the page, but the efficiency rate is deflated due to the many carries we had inside the opposing 5 and the issues we had with those—which we’ll get to a bit more further below. Take out the runs inside the five yard line, which amounted to a troubling six carries for 0 net yards, and you’re looking at a healthy 5.7 yd/carry. While you could do the same for any team and help their averages—after all, the potential for yardage is hard-capped by the yardage that’s left on the field before scoring—it at least helps differentiate our problems in this game from “run game” to “short yardage run game.”

For the former, we had our opportunities for bigger runs, with issues on the interior forcing at least three edge runs to be turned upfield early for short gains and a few edge block miscommunications/mishaps—including Aiyuk’s difficult-yet-horribly executed attempt at a seal block which led to a 9-yard loss from Tevin Coleman (poor Coleman came in for two plays and got buried on both)—cutting down our yardage as well.

Here’s a toss right that shows a number of those issues all at once,

👟⏩ pic.twitter.com/FDJMGor7gm

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 9, 2020

It’s a four yard-gain. Not terrible by any means. But now let’s look at how it had potential to be much much more.

We’re in your standard I-form with a wing TE, running a lead toss to the strong side. Wide of the frame on the right side is Deebo, who will join us later. As discussed before, our goal on these toss plays is to hook everyone and ride them laterally down the line of scrimmage. The best case scenario is that we create a runway for Mostert. Otherwise we allow him to find a hole on the backside and gash up the middle for a good gain.

As you can see here, the majority of our offensive line has put themselves in strong position, with their hips and shoulders positioned the correct way and taking away the outside of each defender. Deebo has also come in along the right side, ready to work up on the safety. The path Mostert wants to take — a rocket launch outside of McGlinchey, is in red, and was very close to actualizing if not for two problem areas, circled in blue:

First off, on the edge, Charlie Woerner (who had his first NFL catches on Sunday 👍) has great initial positioning. But the ensuing handoff between him and Juice—one of them is supposed to work up to the edge defender while the other is supposed to stay on the edge man—gets muddled. Both of them end up passing the edge man to work up to the second level, meaning Mostert would have had to weave inside an unblocked man on the line of scrimmage to fit into the outside hole. While possible, it’s not what we’re looking for.

Secondly, Colton McKivitz has gotten turned and lost outside positioning. Look at his shoulders and hips compared to every other lineman engaged or approaching their blocks. If this was a second or so later and Mostert had time to stretch the defense out wide, then we’d have had alleys to run through and it may not have been as big a deal. But since this happened so early in the play, we lose that horizontal stretch that thins out the defense and Mostert has to cut upfield far earlier than he’d have liked to.

Mostert is athletic enough to bend inside of McKivitz and plunge forward, but with the timing and blocking angles thrown off, the unblocked trailer on the backside is able to get first contact, and other defenders—who were being blocked correctly based on play design—are able to help finish the job. The result is a 4-yard gain instead of what would have put Mostert—with a ten yard head start—on a single cornerback in the open field. That’s a house call more often than not.

As for our short game, our problems in short-yardage runs were largely due to interior dudes missing blocks on the second level and linebackers, without the threat of misdirection, committing hard to shooting gaps. And—of course—one glaring weakness…

The Goose. People who know me know that, when it comes to football, the one thing I have in common with your drunk uncle whose best advice is for “somebody to hit somebody” is that we both believe heavily in the QB sneak. When it’s crunch time and you’re inside the one, get outta the gun. That’s why, when the Niners’ opening 97-yard drive was stuffed on the goal line after a failed fourth down run out of shotgun, I was beyond myself.

That is, until I saw Mullens’ attempt a QB sneak in the second half. Six starts into this season, Mullens’ two most notable sneaks have been one where he jab-stepped off the snap and the false start that was sandwiched between an overturned KB touchdown and the ensuing pick in the end zone that effectively ended this game. Needless to say, neither were effective.

I get it, the Niners have had a rotating door at center and now have Daniel Brunskill, who was listed at 260 pounds(!) by some outlets as recently as earlier this year, manning the position. QB sneaks also rely on your guards to get push, and while Tomlinson is surely built for that, I think we can all agree that right guard is a problem spot. That said, we need to get better at QB sneaks. If for no other reason than to present enough of a threat that the defense will condense three dudes over our interior OL and open up other things when we line up under center. Things such as:

🧃✅ for the score to make it 27-17.#ProBowlVote @JuiceCheck44 #BUFvsSF https://t.co/FTkRquLADk pic.twitter.com/1DAtMp7qw0

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 8, 2020

While there was zero chance the Bills were expecting a sneak on first and goal from the six, the reasoning behind going under center still stands. While I’m not necessarily against goal line shotgun snaps—except for inside the one, where I am almost always against them—our run game in the 80 yards between the 10’s is aided by space and misdirection. There’s inherently no space near the end zone, but when we’re under center we can better take advantage of the aggressive downhill play of linebackers via play action.

Even if we’re not gonna sneak. Which we should get better at.

Roll the Dice? While Mullens is never going to be the most consistently accurate quarterback—the announcers made the very correct claim that if he’d led his receivers near the goal line the Niners would have scored instead of turning the ball over—he’s taken clear steps forward since his early-season goings.

Yes, he fired out of the gates by pantsing the now-actually-decent Giants, but it’s only recently where he has seemed comfortable enough both to execute the offense and for Shanahan to give him the opportunity to sling it a bit more. Against the Bills, he moved around in the pocket very well, made off-schedule throws, wasn’t sacked once, and his QBR—which, as a stat, is probably slightly more legitimate than you would think given Trent Dilfer was consulted in helping build the metric—was 70.4, less than 5 points shy of Josh Allen’s. 

The Niners want to run the ball, but teams continue to commit all their resources to stopping just that. We’re not heading the way of the Air Raid, but it’ll be interesting to see if we get more spurts of the hurry-up, wide-open style of offense that Mullens was piloting deep in the third quarter. The same offense which led to three straight drives of 70+ yards, each lasting under three minutes in length.

We always knew that we’d need an uptick in the passing game to open things up on the ground. Perhaps mixing up tempos and letting Mullens get the ball out quick and with confidence out of more open sets will become a more routine change-up moving forward. While we don’t want to get away from the core strengths of our offense, it’s not hard to see how those adjustments could both help our ground game and even keep Juice involved, albeit split out wide a bit more often.

We should know sooner rather than later. The Racial Slurs, who have a claim to the best defensive line in the game, are up next, and it will be tough sledding on the ground.

If it makes you feel any better, here’s a clip of Brandon Aiyuk dusting dudes down the field. He needs to improve his hands, particularly in traffic, and he could do a better job of high-pointing on deep balls to draw flags (which would have assured a penalty in the first clip instead of leaving it up to the refs), but he is getting the attention of DC’s across the league.

In each clip, he’s the furthest outside receiver at the top of the screen.

✈️ pic.twitter.com/KxCi01YV4T

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 9, 2020

DEFENSE

After back-to-back masterful game plans and performances, our defense fell back to earth quite a bit on Monday. That’s not to say we’re no longer a strong defense, but is to say that there’s a pretty clear formula for putting up points when offenses can execute it: no pass rush + high-level QB who can throw on the run.

Pass Rush. There have been a handful of instances this year where our pass rush has been nonexistent, and we’ve been absolutely diced up by a high-level quarterback. The Packers game certainly comes to mind. The Seahawks game to a lesser extent. But this was the clearest evidence yet that there is only so much you can do when you truly have no pressure on a quarterback who is comfortable throwing both on- and off-script.

Josh Allen entered this game averaging the second-most time to throw (TTT) in the NFL (3.02 seconds/dropback), and if anything this contest improved his ranking. The game plan was clearly to take away the deep ball and force the Bills to move methodically down the field, which is exactly what I would have done given the matchup. However, the strategy simply doesn’t work when the offense can drop back comfortably each play, deliver second-level passes on-time and in-rhythm, and—when they feel any hint of pressure—calmly flush out of the pocket and complete those same passes off-script. 

Saleh attempted to change things up by sending extra men, but these blitzes were largely picked up with ease—many not even accelerating the clock beyond what our four-man rush had been accomplishing. Which unfortunately, wasn’t a lot.

Of the 31 first downs we allowed, 26 were through the air. That should tell you all you need to know about how we defended the pass in this game.

Curl-Flat 4Ever. I’ll admit, the announcers were pretty spot-on in this game as to what the Bills were doing. While they started out by attacking the seams a bit more and working deep crossers, they eventually realized that the Niners had no real solution to simply attacking the soft spot in the curl-flat repeatedly.

In essence, the Bills leaned into what the Cardinals did back in week 1. While the path to get there was different (and much more effective), they played off the big-play reputation of their wideouts, let our cornerbacks bail, then threw all manner of passes underneath them that were too wide and/or too deep for the curl/flat defender to get under. 

Unlike in the game against the Cardinals, the Niners have grown more accustomed to playing man coverage, which was a change-up they used sparingly in this contest. However, in that game against Arizona we had Dee Ford and Nick Bosa. In this game, we clearly did not. While the commentators believed that the Niners could have shifted to man earlier—then quickly pointed out that they were getting beat in those looks regardless—the defense was put in a bind by the fact that (A) man coverage is useless without a pass rush as all deep crossers are likely to be open and there’s only so long you can cover a receiver, and (B) we had a late-week scratch that put Dontae Johnson in the slot in lieu of Emmanuel Moseley.

I’ve been hard on Dontae in the past, but to be clear, he did not play poorly in this game. He was active near the line of scrimmage and willing to mix it up in a largely foreign position. But as a 6-2, 195-pound corner who hasn’t played meaningful snaps in the slot since 2014, he is a boundary corner through and through, and the fact that dialing up more man coverage would often mean he’d be locked one-on-one with Cole Beasley—who pieced us up en route to a career game—likely deterred Saleh from leaning too heavily into man coverage until he absolutely had to. 

Pretty much just a mustache with glasses. While we’d excelled at disguising our coverages in the past few games, this time it seemed like the Bills had all the answers. On a short week when so much was going wrong on defense, I’m not gonna dive in to try and see what exactly were keying, but I can make some guesses. If we’re accepting the idea that we were leaning away from man coverage until forced into it later in the game, then the Bills’ game plan of hitting us with second-level completions along the sidelines is largely effective regardless of what zone we were in. 

As stated before, when it comes to coverage we are inherently a top-down, cover deep-and-play forward type of secondary. We want to stop the deep ball first. We’ve had our current run of success in part because we’ve been able to oscillate between Cover 3, quarters, and man, but if you take away that last option, things change quite a bit. While disguising Cover 3 and Quarters makes it difficult for offenses to diagnose and throw deep down the field, both coverages have a natural weak spot on ~10-15 yard passes along the sideline. If you know you have the time to throw it, have the speed outside to create a cushion, and believe the defense is unlikely to lean heavily into man-coverage, it becomes pitch-and-catch rather quickly.

The good news? We’re still not eliminated from playoff contention. The bad news? We need to win AT LEAST our next three games (potentially all four if the chips fall the wrong way), in order to make the end-of-season tournament.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk13 vs. Bills

We can only hope this is the precursor to a “suck it” [Kevin Jairaj/USA Today]

Opponent: Buffalo Bills (8-3; 1st in AFC East)
Date: Monday, 12/7
Location: Glendale, AZ (lol)
Kickoff: 5:15 PT
TV: ESPN/ABC, or wherever you stream it illegally

Everyone says they put effort into their relationships, but few can compare to the Bills’ commitment to Josh Allen. In the past two off-seasons the Bills have added three tight ends, four wideouts, and eight(!) offensive linemen—all in an effort to stoke the fires of their highly-polarizing first-round quarterback.

And it totally worked. 

The Bills, a franchise whose last few decades have been shaped by the occasional strong defense, a perpetually middling (or worse) offense, and consistent sadness (which is only in part due to the fact that they’re in Buffalo), are now in a dog-fight with the upstart Miami Dolphins for the AFC East crown. And their team’s success is largely due to the explosive arm of their third-year signal caller. 

INJURY REPORT

Everyone on the COVID list is expected to return this week, which means Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Jones, Tom Compton, and Jordan Willis will be back from their double bye week. This marks just the third game this season where Aiyuk and Deebo will both be fully healthy and playing at the same time… Tevin Coleman almost played last week, so I’d assume he’s back in time for a Monday night kickoff… K’Waun Williams, whose PED suspension was overturned, is not healthy enough to return this game. He’s still a few away. Moseley is expected to start in the nickel… Ben Garland won’t be back this week either… on Tuesday, Shanahan said that he didn’t see Weston Richburg, Dee Ford, or Ronald Blair returning to action at any point this season. Oddly enough, it may be Blair—whose yet to play a snap this season and is on a one-year deal that expires in the spring—who has the highest likelihood of returning to the Niners next season. Barring any massive contract restructuring that is… a very very rough timetable has been set for the return of Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle, although if we see either of them at all likely depends on how we do in the next three games. It seems like the earliest the Niners are expecting either of them back is week 16 against the Cardinals, in a matchup that could have serious playoff implications. 

OFFENSE

Josh Allen was widely panned entering the league because he was an uneven performer at a mediocre Group of 5 school, his accuracy wavered tremendously, and his decision-making seemed suspect at best. Even the most bull-ish Allen supporter would admit that he was a very raw prospect, but the Wyoming product got drafted 7th overall in 2018 for a very clear reason: he is perhaps the most physically gifted quarterback in the NFL. 

Many teams would see a quarterback with tremendous physical talents and some (ahem) questionable decision making…

We can't let this play go. WHAT WAS JOSH ALLEN DOING TRYING A LATERAL pic.twitter.com/WpGeN7JchG

— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) January 5, 2020

…and build an offense that was meant to protect him from himself, and the Bills—for Allen’s first two years—did just that. Until this season, when they decided to do the the exact opposite.

The Bills lead the NFL in first down passing rate (60%) and their 66% success rate is wildly ahead of second place (Dolphins, 63%). They want to, and will, huck it every single down if they need to, and this spread out attack that throws all the time has emphasized Allen’s physical tools while letting him learn and improve on the fly. It was a bold schematic change that—to their credit—has worked amazingly well.

Allen has the strongest arm in the NFL, which he proves on a regular basis. Unsurprisingly, this cannon attached to his shoulder allows him to stretch the field vertically, which you can see here as he casually hucks 80-yard bombs at the combine, causing draft analysts to go from six-to-midnight. 

Josh Allen

Allen’s arm strength (and velocity) allow him to be a tick slow on a read or a release yet still complete difficult passes on the NFL level. At the combine he was hucking the ball at 62 miles per hour, the fastest mark in combine history. At the Senior Bowl he was clocked with a pass over 66(!) mph. While someone like Brees or Brady needs to anticipate openings and get the ball out quick into tight windows, Allen’s arm has so much juice that he can hold the ball longer, see the play develop later, and still get off a forty-yard pass while under intense pressure.

Just before getting taken down, Josh Allen lets a huge touchdown pass fly! The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Buffalo Bills during Week 12 of the 2018 NFL ...

On top of his bazooka arm, Allen has great size and athleticism, which he uses regularly on both scrambles and designed runs. In only 38 career starts, he has 22(!) rushing touchdowns, and has rushed for 1400+ career yards on 5.3 yards/carry. Allen doesn’t have nearly the speed or the quicks of someone like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but at 6-5 238 pounds, he brings a bit more power to the position.

Josh Allen's strength doesn't make any sense 😳 @JoshAllenQB @BuffaloBills pic.twitter.com/7Ch6iEdNHb

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 20, 2020

Through the first month of the season, he was the MVP front-runner, torching teams that showed him man coverage and dared him to throw deep. But after that scorching start, his production fell off in the second month of the season. Teams started playing top-back zones, forcing him into underneath passes, and a few bad weather games depressed his raw stats.

Since then, he’s found himself oscillating somewhere in between those two levels of play. He put on an absolute clinic against the Seahawks, torching them for 415 yards and three scores on only 31 completions, then followed that up with ho-hum performances in a loss against the Cardinals and low-volume, mediocre efficiency game against the lowly Chargers.  

Allen is far from a finished product, and the uneven results reflect that, but his scrambling ability makes him hard to pressure and his arm strength allows him to get away with throws that few others could even reasonably attempt, much less complete. 

Surrounding him are a trio of wideouts with very clear roles. John Brown is the outside receiver who goes deep. Cole Beasley is the inside guy who works underneath and across the middle. Stefon Diggs is their alpha, lining up everywhere and soaking up the majority of their targets as a true three-level threat.

One of the drawbacks of running such a pass-happy scheme is that if Allen doesn’t play well, the Bills offense falls off the rails. That’s largely because their non-Allen running game is often non-existent. Outside of Allen’s scrambles and designed runs (yes, we will have to account for those in our scheming), the Bills average only 75 yards/game. While it’s usually a low-usage, low-efficiency affair, the team has flashed the ability to run effectively—namely in a snowy win over the Patriots where both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss rushed for 80+ yards and last week where they randomly ran train on the Chargers—but the ground game is far from our primary concern in this matchup.

Their offensive line is a solid unit. Mitch Morse has held it down for years at center while both Dion Dawkins and Daryl Williams have had strong seasons at the bookends. If there’s a weakness, it’s at the guard position. Cody Ford failed to take the second-year leap before going down to injury last week and current starters Jon Feliciano and Brian Winters have yet to prove they’re anything more than stop-gap options/reserves in the NFL.

DEFENSE

Head Coach Sean McDermott built the Bills up into a contender on the back of a stout one-gapping 4-3 front with a defensive line that applied a ton of pressure without the need for blitzing. This year, that unit has taken a step back.

Once the strength of this defensive, their line has seen sizable regression practically across the board. Second-year pro Ed Oliver—who burst onto the scene as a rookie first rounder with five sacks in a rotational role—has seen a steep decline as a full-time starter. Stanford-alum Trent Murphy still has some pass rush juice, but has struggled against the run. Speed man Jerry Hughes is the only guy who hasn’t seen a real drop-off, but his 11 QB hits and 4.5 sacks across 11 games doesn’t make for great raw stats for a leading edge rusher. With his speed, Hughes is always dangerous, but the Bills’ drop-off in pass rush has led to a sharp decline in pressure rate (23rd) and has forced them to blitz much more than they’d like to—often to mixed results.

While the underperforming defensive line has led to issues against the run (22nd in rushing defense DVOA), the linebackers certainly haven’t helped offset any of those woes. Tremaine Edmunds was always a size/speed project, but now—in year three—he’s pointing more bust than anything. While I hesitate to lean too heavily on PFF rankings, especially when it comes to linebacker play as it features some of their sketchier grades, the wild trends in the Buffalo linebackers make the grades at least worth mentioning.

When looking at this chart it’s important to note that all grades are out of 100 but anything in the mid-70’s or above is very good and stuff in the mid-50’s is on the lower-end of middle-of-the-pack. Everything sub-50 needs work. This has been reflected in the color-coding.

This all points to a crop of linebackers with a lot of plus blitzers and some serious issues stopping the run. While everyone’s going to defend the run a bit better against us because they DGAF about our passing game, this is a contest where we really need to have success on the ground and have the matchup to do so.

In the secondary, Tre’Davious White is their top cover guy. He’s probably somewhere in that Shaquill Griffin area in terms of caliber, but when he’s on he’s very on. The healthy return of Levi Wallace shores up their other outside corner spot, while both their safeties are solid performers on the backend. This is a talented secondary; the only real potential weak spot is their nickel corner, Taron Johnson. 

MATCHUP

While the Bills have undoubtedly had a better season than we have, this is actually—as far as games against division leaders go—a decent matchup for us. This Bills passing attack is always scary, and stopping the deep ball must be the number one priority. But with Richard Sherman back in the fold, Jason Verrett playing lights out, and Tarvarius Moore patrolling center field, we should have the ability to limit the deep ball and force underneath throws. Additionally, our ability to hide coverages has proven devastating against less-seasoned quarterbacks and will be key against the much-improved-but-still-young Allen. If we can take away the easy stuff, we have a better shot of getting Allen out of rhythm early, which could then allow our defensive line and a few well-timed blitzes to apply pressure on their suspect interior line. 

The Bills have been spotty against the run, and a strong blend of misdirection in the run and pass game could give us favorable matchups on the second level both on the ground and through the air. Taking advantage of mediocre linebacking corps was considerably easier with Kittle in the fold, but with Juice available and our wideouts regularly moonlighting in the box out of tight splits, there are still ways for us to force the kind of mismatches that can jumpstart our passing attack. Brandon Aiyuk’s return should help in that regard as well, as Nick Mullens has yet to see the field alongside a fully healthy Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.

We’ll need to have success in the air because without Kittle or Jimmy G, it’s pretty clear that teams—even those with the most suspect of run defenses—will 100% sell out against our ground game if we can’t punish them through the air. There’s no run play that works against a numbers disadvantage and a box full of defenders who are flying forward with not a worry in the world that they’ll get beat over the top. We need to give our backs room to run, and that means passing effectively early in this game and shoring up our turnover problems. We’ve had 11 giveaways in our past four games and our mark of 20 on the season is fourth-worst in the NFL. It should go without saying that for us to win on Monday night (and beyond), that trend can’t continue.

When you’re a super talented team, you can pivot on a dime and win games in a variety of different ways. When you have an off-day you’re still in games and when teams with bad records come along, you know that you’re more than likely able to beat them regardless of their strengths and weaknesses. But when we’re this year’s 49ers, in our current hobbled state, we have to rely more on matchups, and despite the Bills’ impressive record, this is a matchup where we can potentially force an advantage. At this point in the season, we have little room for error, but if we can upset the Bills on Monday night, the path to the playoffs suddenly becomes much more realistic.

Go Niners 👍🏈