Niners 23, Rams 20

LUL

Despite becoming NFL vagabonds as they boarded the flight to Los Angeles, not knowing the availability of key starters until game time, and surviving an onslaught of ugly turnovers, the 49ers did just enough to execute yet another brilliant game plan against the Rams—asserting that (A) the Shanahan/Saleh duo really really has Sean McVay’s number, and (B) the Niners are somehow still within realistic striking distance of the playoffs.

As of now, the Niners are a single game outside of the final spot in the NFC playoffs and will share a temporary residence with the current seven-seed—the Arizona Cardinals—before battling them again in week 16. There’s a lot of football to be had between now and then, and—by virtue of a deep roster, competitive spirit, and strong coaching—the Niners run the risk of falling just shy of the playoffs while damaging their draft positioning just enough to put a potential first-round QB out of the picture. But that’s something to worry about for another day. For now, the Niners just swept the NFC West’s division leader and did so in impressive (albeit sloppy) fashion.

OFFENSE

The Niners were far from pretty on offense, struggling with their running game after the Rams committed to stopping it above-all-else and turning the ball over an alarming three times. But our 348 yards of offense were the most the Rams have allowed since (checks notes) the last time they played us, and the two scoring drives to cap off the game were—if not the prettiest—a statement that perhaps this offense, as banged up as it is, can get to where we need to be to make a late season push.

What a Difference a Deebo Makes. No disrespect to Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson who—despite losing a fumble each—contributed far more than their middling stats would indicate, but my god this offense looks different with Deebo on the field.

Deebo has been fully healthy for three games this season. In those two matchups against the Rams and one against the Patriots, the Niners are 3-0 and averaging 402 yards/game—a figure that would rank just two yards per game shy of the Cardinals’ second-best offense if extrapolated over the course of the season.  

Deebo’s rare ability to run past and over defenders gives the Niners a horizontal stretch threat that they simply lack with any other combination of players on the field. On both touch passes, screens, and slants Deebo showed the ability to regularly create more yards than a play was designed to get and often in spectacular fashion. His 11 grabs and 133 yards were both career highs, and while his playmaking didn’t exactly open running lanes up on the inside—the Rams committed fully to stopping the run late in the second quarter and dared the Niners to pass—Deebo himself converted enough crucial plays to give the Niners just enough late-game offense to pull out the win.

The Donald Dilemma. Actually, it’s not really a dilemma. The dude just beat the absolute shit out of the right side of our line.

Here’s a a cut-up of four plays from a six-play stretch over the second and third quarters. To be clear, this is four snaps of his over six CONSECUTIVE plays:

😬 x4 pic.twitter.com/U0Tvq2EtRA

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 1, 2020

Here he is later in the game, making an even bigger impact on back-to-back snaps.

😬 x2 pic.twitter.com/kBHd6bVrxX

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 1, 2020

When it comes to Donald there’s only so much that we can do, particularly when forced to drop back and pass because the Rams are committing so heavily against the run. It’s not like we didn’t double team him. We did twice in the above clips and—in part cause of massive off-sets by McKivitz—he split both of them. It’s not like we didn’t try to screen away from him, but he was so explosive off the line he messed that up anyways.

While there’s only one Donald and we won’t have to play him until next year (or the playoffs), the best way to protect against the kind of havoc that he wrecked on our offense in the mid-game is to (a) have your players get better—which is certainly possible given this was McKivitz’s second game playing legitimate minutes and first-ever start—and (b) have the other elements of your offense improve enough to take our offense out of the situations that let him flex as the most dominant player in the NFL.

Mullens Meter: Tepid. I don’t think anyone came out of this game thinking Mullens was the long-term answer at quarterback, but I did exit with more optimism for the next few games until Garoppolo gets back.

Mullens wasn’t amazingly accurate, tossing one pick, gifting another that was dropped on an overthrow, and missing a few open receivers—sometimes on crucial downs. But he also showed some ability to get away from the rush, minimize big losses off sacks, and even create some offense on his own while off-script. Most importantly, he didn’t whither under that pressure—literally or figuratively—and that’s something we can build on.

The turnovers are likely just going to be a thing that happens with Mullens from time-to-time—especially when we don’t have a team totally outmatched talent-wise or schematically—and it would be overly optimistic to assume Mullens is going to become incredibly consistent from week-to-week. But it’s not out of the question that he will get more comfortable in his role and improve. I think he did just that this game, and that was without Brandon Aiyuk in the lineup.

While it wasn’t flashy, Mullens finished the game a quiet 9-of-11 for 87 yards on our final two offensive drives—both leading to field goals that would become the difference between a win and a loss. Against a defense as tough as the Rams, that means something.

Broncos Fiasco. Okay, so what happened with the Broncos—where their entire roster of quarterbacks were pulled off the practice field the day before the game and they had to start a practice squad WR at QB with zero reps—has nothing to do with the 49ers. But after a reporter asked Shanahan if he would think about isolating a quarterback in case of a COVID outbreak (his answer was a resounding “no”), Shanny said that if he had to he’d likely start Jet McKinnon at quarterback. Which got me thinking…

Obviously, we would never actually want to see a non-quarterback have to play quarterback for an entire game, but Jet was an All-American QB at Georgia Southern. Sure, that was in an option offense and he only completed 28 passes over his last two seasons, but he also tossed 11 touchdowns during that time frame. So if the Niners had to play a game without a quarterback and had—unlike the Broncos—some actual time to prepare for it, this would be my best guess as to what that offense would look like: a wing T / single wing option-based scheme (from Shanahan’s Saratoga days) with Deebo splitting time in the backfield and as a wing back, Aiyuk running a lot of fly sweeps, and the majority of the passing attack coming off pop passes, rollout sail route combinations, and the occasional tunnel screen.

Anyways, COVID amirite?

DEFENSE

Back-to-back masterpieces from Robert Saleh, who at this point has to be a front-runner for any number of head jobs this off-season. His unit held the Rams to 308 yards, their lowest offensive total since (checks notes again) the last time they played us, and 124 of those yards came on three big plays that should have been snuffed out for shorter gains. While last year’s defense was better, this year’s coaching job has been more impressive. Any questions about whether it was just a case of talent winning the day have been full squelched. It’s impossible to guess what kind of head coach Saleh will eventually make, but it would be even more ludicrous to claim he hasn’t yet earned that shot.

Safety switching. Just like last game against the Saints, Jimmie Ward spent more of his time down near the line of scrimmage while Tarvarius Moore played primarily as the deep safety. Ward has effectively been playing strong safety (with a dash of nickel) while Moore has been playing free. 

This change has allowed Ward—who had a slow start to the season—to be at his most effective, leaning on his wide breadth of coverage experience he gained from the incessant position-switching of his first years in the league. While his injury history and body type make for potential long-term concerns once we matchup against more power run-based offenses, letting Ward play near the line of scrimmage and in the nickel has really shown off his versatility and has led to more of the splash plays that he’s always critiqued for not creating enough of.

Likewise, playing deep has given Moore the chance to use his tremendous length and speed to take away any threat of deep passes over the middle, even if his issues with deep safety tackling angles reared their ugly head again on Sunday. 

As noted before, 124 of the Rams’ 308 yards of offense came on three plays. For all three of those plays, Moore was at least partially responsible. He got caught watching routes in front of him when he should have sunk to take away the deep out on a bootleg sail, took a bad angle in support on a pass to Cooper Kupp—leading to an additional 15 yards—and triggered downhill too quickly then gave up the inside shoulder on Cam Akers’ 61-yard run. The Rams only scored on three offensive drives. The big plays above made up the majority of yardage on each of those drives.

While Moore’s struggles with tackling angles from the high safety position are worrisome, the Ward/Moore combo is tantalizing enough that I’d let him ride it out. If it’s something that he can improve with more reps—this is only his second season at free safety and sixth start at the position—then we’ve shored up a big question mark for next season.

Dat DL depth. Despite missing both DJ Jones and Jordan Willis to the COVID list, the defensive line was absolutely dominant this game. While only tallying two sacks, the Niners registered six QB hits and had seven-and-a-half tackles for loss on the game—absolutely bottling up the Rams’ outside running game and making Jared Goff throw into the teeth of a defense that he simply couldn’t figure out.

With two sacks and four QB hits on his own, Kerry Hyder has almost certainly played his way out of re-signing with the Niners this off-season (if the team moves on from Dee Ford then that may change). He’s a half-sack away from tying his career high in sacks and is on pace to be quite the unlikely double-digit sack man for the Niners. For now, we can only hope Hyder continues to shred and nets us as high a comp pick as possible.

In his first career start, Kevin Givens continued to assert himself, totaling two tackles, one for loss, a fumble recovery, and a QB hit that forced Goff into one of his two interceptions and secured fellow defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw his first-ever touchdown. There is no question he’s become a big part of our defensive plans moving forward.

Despite heavy losses, our d-line has been performing at a high level throughout the year, which is both a testament to the depth that we’ve acquired at the position—often at little-to-no cost—and the coaching of DL coach Kris Kocurek. If Saleh does get a head job this off-season, Kocurek’s name has been brought up more than once as the heir apparent, but I’m not quite sure. Kocurek has been a DL coach in the NFL for ten years now, and there’s a chance he’s one of those position coaches who simply wants to be very very good at just that—being a defensive line coach.

After all, this is the same guy who Arik Armstead described as:

“He's a football junkie, but more than that I would say he's a D-line junkie. It's all he cares about in life when it comes to football. He's addicted to D-line play. That's all he thinks about, all he cares about. That's like his high in life. He'll tell us, 'I only slept for an hour last night because I was thinking about this stunt or this play.' That's how his brain works."

Regardless of what his role may be next year, he’s absolutely a guy we should be thrilled to have on the Niners staff.

A taste of our(?) own medicine. After the Saints adjusted to our fly sweep/edge game with nickel blitzes triggered by motion, we deployed something similar against the Rams on Sunday. 

Here’s a counter run out of a double tight formation.

The Rams are looking to use the fly motion to fake a fly sweep and pull attention the wrong way while looping the tight wideout (#11) across the formation as the kickout block on a counter run the other way. Theoretically, they have 8 blockers against 7 men in the box; the numbers advantage is even more severe if they believe the fly motion will pull a box defender out of the play.

However, upon seeing motion, Sherman now has no one to his side other than an in-line tight end. With the Niners perfectly happy with letting a safety or linebacker handle that player if he goes out on a pass, Sherman cat blitzes off the edge, getting enough depth quickly enough that he makes for an impossible kick out block and in general just mucks up the work with the timing and execution of the play.

As you can see from the end zone angle, the Rams’ numbers in the box were overwhelming, and a giant hole was created… but none of that mattered since the play was blown up at the point of attack.

We also did something similar later in the game by deploying what resembled a squeeze-scrape—or the gap-switching edge technique that teams often run against shotgun, zone read attacks—against the Rams’ fly/handoff combo runs.

Sick of our team speed beating them to the point of attack on their zone and stretch runs, here the Rams are once again trying to run counter opposite a fly sweep fake, but this time they’ve pulled a tight end off the field and replaced him with a receiver (outside of frame, to the right of the screen, wide of Jimmie Ward).

This means that the outside corner can’t cat blitz to blow the play up at the point of attack so the Niners do something else to replicate that kind of edge disruption.

The Niners are slanting the majority of their defensive line towards the fly motion and letting their second-line defenders play their run fits away. This is particularly important on the back-side, where Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward are basically squeeze-scraping, or switching edge responsibilities.

Slanting linemen and switching gap responsibilities isn’t something insane or new, it’s part of the foundation of any defense, but this backside gap switch is particularly effective against the inside/out threat that the Rams present with their run game.

Just like Sherman on the CAT blitz, Ward immediately aims to get penetration so that he can mess up the play’s timing, avoid any kickout block, and play the bootleg in case of play action. The Rams also made the critical error of putting a tight end on Arik Armstead in the run game, and that tight end is beat immediately to the inside. 

While the running back would awkwardly spin out of Armstead’s reach as he was being blocked, the back’s momentum was fully stopped, he had nowhere to run, and he spun directly into the waiting arms of Kentavius Street.

Throughout the game, the Niners’ secondary confused the Rams with edge blitzes and filled hard in the alleys when called upon. This not only shut down the Ram’s rushing attack (outside of the 61-yard run, the Rams totaled 65 yards on 27 carries for 2.7 ypc) but also confused Goff in the passing game.

Masters of Disguise. When Goff gets in a rhythm and is confident in what he’s seeing, he can dice up a defense, but when he has to double take or finds himself coming out of play action fakes and seeing something unexpected, he can get thrown off in a hurry. Thus, disguising our coverages is tantamount to throwing the Rams’ QB off his mark, and we did that beautifully on Sunday.

Here is a simple but marvelously executed example of exactly how these kinds of disguised coverages can throw Goff off his game.

Pre-snap, the Niners are showing Cover 3, with a clear single-high safety, Sherman playing off and looking inside, and Verrett—while showing press—in a position where he could easily turn and bail at the snap. So the Rams have a Cover 3 beater called against it, hoping to high low the top of the formation, hit the crosser behind the linebackers or play pitch-and-catch on either of the comebacks against corners playing deep thirds. 

But the Niners are not in Cover 3.

They’re actually in Cover 1, with a linebacker squatting to help on any crossers and Moore deep to help on anything down the field. The return of Sherman—who is as comfortable in man or zone off-coverage while eyeing the quarterback as any corner in the league—helps us really sell that Cover 3 look. While there’s a chance the Rams could hit the quick out against man with a great release, this is already a play-calling win for Saleh.

After the snap we can see the second level of the defense’s deception. Fred Warner has timed up the snap count and lunged forward as if he’s blitzing, all the while locking eyes with Goff as the Rams QB looks right of formation at the high-low read.

But once Goff looks left at his crosser and comeback (and Warner is out of his peripheral), our All-Pro linebacker stops his blitz and widens out. He’s actually in man coverage on the running back and is sniffing out the supposedly safe check down route.

Goff sees that nothing’s open and turns to the swing pass—believing it to be an easy completion since Warner was coming on the blitz. But by the time Goff gets his eyes on the swing, both he and Warner have the exact same thing on their minds: a case of deja vu from last December.

PICK SIX FRED WARNER 😱 pic.twitter.com/RDgxQsPC59

— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) December 22, 2019

Effectively trapped, Goff looks upfield to see if anything has opened up off schedule. Given the nature of the routes, the timing of the play, and the fact that he is squarely in the pocket, it comes as no surprise that every receiver is blanketed. With the defensive line closing in on him, the terror in his eyes is apparent.

Thus he gets the anime teardrop treatment.

Through the past two years and four contests, these are Jared Goff’s averages against us versus every other opponent he’s played during that time.

And that’s including the wildly out-of-character first half of the December 2019 game, when the Rams went heavy on screens and bootleg passes and Goff threw for nearly as many completions (16) and yards (191) in a single half as he’s thrown for in any other full game against us in the past two years. Take out that outlier and the stats are considerably more grim.

Not great, Bob. Not great.

Pour some for Taylor. Jamar Taylor going down to an ACL tear was a heartbreaker, both because he was a journeyman who worked hard to make the practice squad, then the active roster, then takeover the starting nickel role, and because he was playing well enough that he could have potentially secured himself a multi-year extension in the off-season. For any journeyman in the NFL, getting any kind of multi-year deal is huge.

With Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett starting outside, Emmanuel Moseley slid into Taylor’s nickel slot when he went down. Moseley doesn’t really have the kind of lateral quickness that you typically look for in a nickel corner, and he was targeted early on before he could get situated—especially in hurry-up situations just after Taylor went down. However, Moseley has played in the slot in the past—albeit only in training camp—and he’s such a quick study that you have to imagine he’ll be more prepared going forward, even if it’s not his natural, nor likely long-term, position.

Yet another impressive team win against the Rams has us once again thinking we may be returning to form, but in order for that to materialize into an actual playoff berth, there’s no room for error. Next up, a Bills team that’s sitting 8-3 and on top of the AFC East.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk12 @ Rams

Coming into your nightmares like… [Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
Date: Sunday, 11/29
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PM PT
TV: FOX or wherever you stream it illegally

The NFC West is like one giant game of rock, paper, scissors. 

The Cardinals’ quick-passing game and scrambling quarterback works well against our deep shell zones. Aaron Donald’s ability to create havoc on an overmatched interior and rein in Russell Wilson has helped the Rams to a 5-2 record against the Seahawks in the Sean McVay era. And our knowledge of the Rams’ offense and ability to rattle Jared Goff have given us three straight over the Rams. But this time around, the health gap between our two squads threatens to bring that streak to an end. 

Last we saw the Rams, they were making their pitch as one of the best and most complete squads in the NFC, the Dodgers and Lakers were encouraging them to “do their part” in bringing a third professional championship to Los Angeles (and people weren’t audibly laughing), and the team itself was doing your classic LA sports team shit—like making proposals such as this one:

"Our goal hopefully is we can get to the point where maybe we can unveil a new uniform every year, either the way we space it out or whether the NFL and Nike changes those rules,” Demoff said, via USA Today's Rams Wire. "Maybe a little bit more of a European soccer model where you come out with that alternate jersey each year. Some people like that, some people don't. But yeah, we could see that."

Since we beat them in week 6, the Rams have gone 3-1 against four straight (potential) playoff teams and have knocked off two of the top teams in the NFC in back-to-back weeks. They’re also one of only three teams in the NFL with top 10 DVOA ratings in both offense and defense. Unfortunately for us, we should expect a stiffer challenge in our rematch as the Rams attempt to hold onto the lead in the NFC West.

INJURY REPORT

Since this is getting posted Wednesday morning to avoid Thanksgiving, the Niners have yet to practice this week so all of this is conjecture. With an extra week to rest up from the bye, this was the intended return date for Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, and Richard Sherman. Deebo seems like a shoe-in to play, Sherman has been practicing since the week leading up to the bye, and both Mostert and Wilson had their practice windows opened on Tuesday. How many of them truly return won’t be known until much later in the week, but rest assured, each of them would make for a huge boost. 

A noodle al dente [Jae C. Hong / Associated Press]

OFFENSE

For 8 games this season, the Rams have looked like the most complete and well-rounded team in the NFC. For 2, they’ve been sunk by Jared Goff implosions. Since his first bottom-out against us, Goff’s been efficient against the Bears, slung it all over the field against the Seahawks and Bucs, and turned the ball over four times against the Dolphins. Coming off two of his better performances of the year, Goff will look to keep the momentum rolling in an offensive scheme that has been adjusted to minimize variance.

We went over the core tenants of their offense in the earlier writeup, so I’ll focus more on what’s changed since then. The Rams’ implosion against our defense has led to a series of small tweaks rather than any large ones. They still want to run the ball. They still want to get the ball out of Goff’s hands with quick pre-snap reads and half-field combination routes while on the move. But unlike before, when they largely required some modicum of rushing success to tap into their passing game, they seem to have found the ability to do one or the other—run the ball or throw quick passes—without exposing themselves.

Against the Seahawks, the Rams were held to 3.7 yards/carry and just over a hundred yards on the ground but threw for over 300 in an efficient win. Against the Bucs, their rushing output provided a measly 37 yards on 1.9/carry, but Goff—outside of two sketchy interceptions in the second half—diced them up for 376 and three scores on 51 pass attempts. 

Over the past two years, that kind of Rams game plan has often meant less-than-ideal efficiency, turnovers, and losing football. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Rams had been 0-5 in games where Goff attempted more than 45 passes. Their first win with such a pass-heavy lean was this Monday against the Bucs. So what’s changed to allow this offense to throttle the #1 defense in total DVOA and passing DVOA without any semblance of a rushing attack?

The Rams’ aerial explosion is less the product of them opening up their downfield passing attack and more a case of them leaning even deeper into what they are at their most comfortable doing: quick game and screens, half-field reads, play action passes, and—as we saw last year—a willingness to show tons of play action looks even when the run game is largely nonexistent.

While many coaches would go into their bye weeks thinking up ways to get better at what was—up until that point—an offensive weakness, McVay decided instead to double down on what they were good at. They now have more screens, more outlets to get the ball quickly out of Goff’s hands, and more ways to—in essence—protect their quarterback and play to his strengths. By getting Goff into these grooves, he’s in turn become more comfortable throwing the ball down the field and his play as a whole has elevated. Granted, he will still have the occasional lapse—the Dolphins game wasn’t that long ago and a pair of ugly picks made McVay very conservative late in the Tampa Bay game—but McVay and the post-bye week Rams have done a good job of increasing Goff’s comfort level and decreasing his variance.

Ultimately, that makes defending this offense more difficult, but doesn’t necessarily change what our defensive goals should be. We want to stop easy yardage on the ground, force Goff to throw drop back passes from the pocket, and minimize YAC yards via quick diagnoses and strong tackling in space.

In our last matchup, the Rams found their most consistent success on interior runs with outside misdirection, but by the time they’d realized that the score had forced them into more of a passing game. While the Rams have found ways to pass at higher volumes with more success, they’d like to be more balanced, and I would guess they make a concerted effort to get the ground game going early in our rematch.

Since they’re likely to try to run and get the ball out of Goff’s hands quickly, it may make the most sense to rush with four, key the bootleg, and try and confuse Goff with an assortment of looks rather than leaning on an undermanned pass rush. Initial-look confusion and collapsing (but not necessarily penetrating) pockets could get Goff out of rhythm, and once drop back passes become a greater part of the gameplan, then we can try and dial up some free hitters with delayed linebacker blitzes and pressure from the nickel position.

With Richard Sherman (hopefully) back from injury, how the Niners deploy him alongside a secondary coming off a lockdown game against the Saints will be one of the major questions of the day—and potentially a crucial one towards slowing up this revitalized Rams offense and seeing what our defense is going to look like for this back stretch of the season.

For the Future: Tarvarius Moore vs. Run/Screen Fits and Play Action

Tarvarius Moore has had two very nice showings as a starter this year, thus it is only fitting for me to mention him in this column and for him to immediately mess up. Just kidding. Hopefully…

Against the Saints, Moore excelled at taking away the deep ball and filled with great intent (and just enough mass) against their power running game. Against the Rams, he’s in for a totally different challenge. While their ability to run the ball behind a talented three-headed monster at running back will test his recognition speed and run fits, their heavy reliance on short passes and screens will test his ability to crash hard from the safety position and tackle well in space—which, for those of you who remember last year, wasn’t exactly his strong suit.

If Moore can once again flex his athleticism in coverage and his physicality as a downhill force against quick passes and the run, we’re very likely looking at our starting strong safety for 2021.

Dawgwork, the official mantra and mascot of the Rams defensive line and also a roided out pit who has definitely chased me through the streets of Boyle Heights.

DEFENSE

Defensively, the Rams have settled in quite nicely after a touch-and-go start to the season. In the past seven games, they’ve allowed over 300 yards only twice—once against the top-flight offense of the Seahawks and once against us. While during that time they’ve pitched a few absolute shutdown performances against the Racial Slurs (108 yards of offense!), the Dolphins (145 yards), and the Bucs (251 yards).

In our last matchup we dropped 390 yards and 24 points, the most yards the Rams have allowed this year and the second-most points (only to the Bills). We did this via the full deployment of a finally healthy Deebo Samuel on touch passes, a commitment to a physical running game, a series of quick hitters and screens underneath, and heavy doses of George Kittle (7-107-1 TD).

The Rams will certainly have adjustments in place to combat our horizontal stretch looks this time around, and while it’s possible we see the return of both Deebo and Mostert in this game, the losses of Garoppolo, Kittle, and Ben Garland will make for much tougher sledding in both the run and pass games. Shanahan often does well against teams that “do what they do” and don’t stray far from their defense’s fundamental rules, but if there’s hope for a Shanahan surprise attack it may be in the deployment of an emerging Brandon Aiyuk. 

While Aiyuk played in the first matchup, he’s progressed considerably since that time, and Sunday will (hopefully) mark just the second game where both Aiyuk and Deebo are fully healthy and playing at the same time. However, they’ll be matching up against one of the strengths of this defense. While Jalen Ramsey gets the majority of the attention playing wide corner and the Rams’ “star” nickel hybrid, Darious Williams has been tremendous opposite him, and John Johnson, despite his parents being wildly uncreative, has really held it down while splitting snaps deep and in the box. The Niners’ reliance on short passes between the hashes nullifies some of the impact of a talented duo of corners, but Shanahan will have to get creative without Kittle’s gravitational pull attracting attention away from the wideouts. Getting anyone on these linebackers will certainly be an emphasis in the passing game because while the DL and secondary have loads of talent, these linebackers are straight up bad—especially in coverage.

Ultimately, none of these passing game matchups matter if the Niners can’t establish at least a moderately efficient running game and the threat of play action. Jordan Reed has excelled as a receiver when he’s healthy, but someone needs to block the edge this game. Whether it’s Juice, who’s had an up-and-down year as a blocker, Ross Dwelley, who is an all-purpose sub but not a mover in the ground game, or even our wideouts sealing down into the box, we need to win those run game matchups on the edge if we’re to control possession at all in this game.

For the future: Interior OL vs. Aaron Donald, Eater of Worlds

In the last matchup, Daniel Brunskill—who struggled early in the season—showed out well against the All-Pro defensive tackle. Now Brunskill is at guard and Tom Compton/Colton McKivitz are splitting reps at guard with sub par results. With Donald’s ability and the variety of places he can line up along the DL, he has the potential to wreck a game plan before it can even get going—especially one that relies on a consistent run game and a backup quarterback who has had turnover issues when under pressure.

The Rams had Brunskill circled going into our week 6 showdown, which means they’ll have our two-headed rotation at right guard highlighted with a neon sign going into this one. The Niners’ ability to scheme up help on Donald and our guards’ ability to create stalemates in their one-on-one matchups could be the deciding factor in whether our offense gets off the ground or not.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Saints 27, Niners 13

November 17, 2013: a day that will live in 49er fan annoyance.

Time is a flat circle.

Crucial down, Saints driving, Niners sack puts them deep behind the sticks, but then... Drew Brees looks sad. And we already know what’s going to happen next. We’ve seen it in our minds, repeated a thousand times like we’re one of those bald people lying in milk in Minority Report. We are clairvoyant, if only for a single, fleeting second.

Yes, it’s a bummer that Brees was hurt on this play. No, that doesn’t mean it should have been a penalty, and any retroactive takes that follow in that vein adhere to at least a half dozen logical fallacies. Injury = penalty doesn’t follow with torn ACLs or hamstring pulls, nor should it and arguing that an injury that was diagnosed 24 hours after the game means a penalty in the second quarter was correct is like arguing that it was good that you fell asleep at the wheel and hit that old Dodge Dart off the road because its driver happened to be wanted for robbing a bank. 

Seven years ago, Ahmad Brooks’ sack of Drew Brees not only kept the Saints from scoring but forced a fumble that Patrick Willis would recover. The late flag that erased that from existence set up the Saints for victory and set us up to lose the tiebreak in the NFC West and play the NFC Championship game at Century Link rather than Candlestick. If there’s any solace to be had in Sunday’s fit of deja vu it’s that Kentavius Street’s sack—while as clean as could be—was only one of a series of plays that foiled our chances at victory.

Yes, in 2020, losing by a wide enough margin that a single bad call doesn’t infuriate you is as close as you’re getting to a silver lining.

OFFENSE

For the third time this season we actually out-gained our opponent in offensive yardage, only to fall short on the scoreboard. In similar fashion to our loss to the Eagles, the point differential was largely caused by turnovers undoing any chance we had at creating and sustaining momentum.

While we fired out of the gates with a near-perfect script and efficient, focused play on both offense and defense, our massive game flow advantage only lasted through the first quarter. After that, our inability to run the ball (2.0 ypc on the day) and a steady stream of turnovers kept our offense from regaining any type of rhythm and that—combined with our special teams miscues—hung our defense out to dry.

Everyone hates Nickelback: Any defense we face is going to commit to stopping the outside run first and foremost, otherwise it’s hard to have a chance against us. That often leads to unique fronts that haven’t been shown on film, DL alignments made to prevent reach blocks or minimize interior double teams, super-wide edge players whose entire job is to not get hooked, and 5 or more defenders on the line of scrimmage. 

The Saints basically did all of the things above, but they added a specific wrinkle that made their defensive front even more difficult to run against. Instead of rolling a linebacker down or adding an extra lineman to give them five defenders on the LOS, the Saints used their nickel corner (Gardner-Johnson) as their edge defender and would typically hide that fact up until the snap.

formation key (condensed split to TE) in blue; defensive adjustment in red

The Saints showed this front often throughout the game against run-friendly formations and clearly had checks built into their play-calls to shift into this look whenever (A) we showed condensed receiver splits—an alignment that we love to run towards because it allows our receivers to block down into the box—or (B) we sent a receiver in fly sweep motion TO the nickel—another sign of a likely run.

They even showed this look on the first play of the game:

Two-high look rolls safety down to run strength to create 8 man box

When they saw that wing TE and condensed wideout out of 21 personnel, they slid their nickel far enough inside the receiver to make for a terrible blocking angle then rolled the high safety down into the box to replace their pass responsibility and create an extra body against the run.

Ballcarrier in yellow; Jet is screwed before the play even begins

By using an edge defender who was too fast and aligned too wide for any blocker to successfully reach, the Saints were able to immediately turn runs back inside or blow them up at the point of attack.

They’d do this when we’d motion down into a condensed set:

Motion from a spread set to condensed wideout keys adjustment

Penetration causes Hasty to cut upfield early, while roll-down safety gets clean path to ball carrier

Or when we’d motion across the formation to create a condensed set on the opposite side:

Alignment of nickel (wide and at LOS) + assignment (penetrate into backfield) makes for an impossible block

Unsurprisingly, reverses and touch passes were the hardest play to get going, as we were outflanked on the edges before we even got started.

Nickel is told to get penetration so can’t be fooled by reverse or kicked out by pulling lineman

We’ve talked a bit about how some of the Niners’ misdirection run concepts and the way they all meld together resemble elements from both a spread option attack and throwback Wing T football. Thus, it seems fitting that the Saints adjusted to our run game with a hybrid of elements that are often used against spread and Wing T teams.

In essence, the Saints were treating the condensed receiver as a blocker and extending the LOS an extra gap with their nickel corner. Tons of college teams use nickel blitzes against spread option attacks as it messes up the read keys of the quarterback. Against us, the Saints weren’t worried about a Mullens zone read keeper as much as they were the natural cutback of our zone and stretch plays and the reverses, sweeps, bootlegs, and play actions going the other way. By shooting into the backfield, CGJ can collapse down against the run unblocked or pressure Mullens enough that there’s no time for a crosser or deep shot to develop via play action.

On the flip side, Wing T offenses have always had to deal with defenses adjusting to motion, which is why many such as De La Salle employ very quick-hitting motions that get the snap off before defenses can adjust. In this case, the Saints were setting an extra edge defender wide of the blockers who could blow up any fly sweep or reverse, while rolling a backside safety down into the box to give the defense appropriate numbers to fill against a more traditional run such as zone or stretch.

We saw a similar look when we were in trips:

Nickel is basically just here to create havoc at the LOS regardless of run or pass

Here, the nickel corner is head-up and pressing the front man in the bunch formation, but isn’t in man. His eyes are inside, and his goal is to jam the wideout so he can’t block down into the box on a crack block—which allows Demario Davis to flow to the ball unhindered—and knock the receiver off his route in case it is a pass—giving the DBs behind him the chance to mark up the right guys in coverage.

clusterfuck initiated

In this case, CGJ knifes inside of Bourne’s block, forcing McKinnon to bounce when he didn’t want to and funneling him into the unblocked hands of their crashing cornerback. 

But these blitzes weren’t only effective in stuffing the run game:

Bourne, at the bottom of the screen, is literally pointing out the nickel blitz

In the passing game, these nickel blitzes presented problems because: (A) a nickel blitz is often on the quarterback to recognize pre-snap so that he can shift protection or find his hot routes, and Mullens just isn’t seeing them consistently; and (B) neither McKinnon, Hasty, nor Walter are very good in pass protection. McKinnon especially—due mostly to his abundance of snaps in this game—really struggled, allowing at least two sacks entirely on his own and a handful of other pressures. 

Here, nickel is accounted for schematically but Jet didn’t step up into the pocket in pass pro

So how do you beat these loaded boxes with extended edge nickel blitzes? In the run game, you’d want to treat that nickel as an extra defensive lineman. If it’s a run, it doesn’t matter if he’s dropping or coming off the edge, you just need to account for him. Sicking Juice on him on kick-outs could have theoretically given us a matchup we liked in the run game. Same-side sweep action with a cutback intended may have had some legs if we were winning more on the inside.

Getting into formations that themselves have a lot of gaps, like a tight end on the LOS and Juice in a wing, is another way to make that edge pressure less impactful by simply creating more gaps. Conversely, you can open up into more 11 personnel sets as a way to deter that kind of edge pressure and minimize its impact—which we did in the second half—but with Dwelley at tight end instead of Kittle, that doesn’t really give us the run game matchups we’d prefer. Gap running should be on the table as well, but I assume Shanahan leaned away from that in part because—as stated before—it relies a bit more on our inside guys to win blocks and our guards at least weren’t doing that on Sunday. 

The best way to combat this look is simply to pass. In particular, you pass underneath. That slot corner may be coming off the edge but he’s also lining up pretending to be in coverage and then vacating all pass responsibility. Just like any other blitz, that opens up space for quick completions underneath and makes dropping defenders cover more ground with less bodies. While a nickel blitz can be dialed up so wide that the blitzer can only be picked up by a running back, it’s inherently more risky on the coverage end because his abandoned pass responsibility is tougher than that of a linebacker’s (hence why an extra DB is on the field in the first place) and—if hiding the blitz—the defender taking over his coverage likely starts the snap out of position and immediately must make up ground.

The signs were actually there of us taking advantage of these blitzes by doing just that—attacking the Saints in underneath holes where the blitzer vacated. For instance, if you look at the sack from before and focus on a different part of the play…

This is as open as you can get

You can see how Shanahan was dialing up dig routes to take advantage of the vacated space. If pass pro had held up this was a completion of a bare minimum of 15 yards.

Here’s another inside-breaking route that was actually completed to Jordan Reed:

motion signals defensive check

Our use of motion activates the nickel corner blitz and rolls the high safety down to replace his coverage responsibility. Knowing that this means the linebackers will be widening out in a hurry and that the single-high safety will surely be pulled by the vertical route out of the slot, this makes Jordan Reed open for a shallow dig or square-in on the backside.

Reed wide open for square-in; this one would be completed

On the first drive of the second half, Shanahan dialed up more spread out sets and started throwing short passes outside the hashes to counteract how the Saints were crowding the box. It got us down into field goal range, but a holding call, an inaccurate pass on a shoot route, and then Mullens’ interception squashed that drive.

This was an excellent defensive game plan from Saints’ DC Dennis Allen, and I would assume we’ll see plenty more nickel blitzes after the success that both the Seahawks and the Saints have had in employing them. Shanahan will have to come in with more early checks against this kind of look—perhaps with more quick passing towards the sideline, inside screens, and gap-running concepts—but I wouldn’t worry about it being some kind of gamebreaking defense against us. This is far from the case of a Rams’ 6-1 defense kryptonite situation.

That’s because in theory, we’re actually built quite well to counteract this strategy when we’re healthy. After all, our passing game strength is in completing underneath passes and getting yards after the catch—thus attacking the very areas that nickel blitzes leave open in coverage. Consider me skeptical that the Saints would be as comfortable dialing up a six man blitz and a soft coverage shell with Deebo and Kittle catching quick outs, hitches, and fast screens in space against a single corner. Or allowing single-high coverage on Kittle rumbling down the seam. Or loving the idea of sending a slot blitz that vacates alley support against a Deebo slant.

Getting some guys back and getting our interior line in order—although Brunskill did play well—will help solve a lot of the problems that this defense presented.

Take off the kid gloves? Or put on even thicker, more kid-friendly gloves on top of the gloves that we’re already wearing? There have been complaints throughout the year that Shanahan needs to open up and throw the ball more when the Niners run game isn’t working. In a bubble, I totally understand that thinking. When the run game isn’t working and everyone’s keying it, you gotta pass to open it up. In theory. But did anyone leave this game thinking that we would have done much better if Mullens threw the ball 50 times instead of 38? I, for one, did not.

People like to state the positive correlation between first down yardage and offensive success as a reason that the Niners should be throwing more on first down. However, that’s making quite the assumption that we’re getting good yardage on that throw because second & 10 is typically the worst time to run, and if we’re coming out every drive with three Mullens passes we’re not only getting away from our offensive identity and eliminating play action concepts from our playbook, but we’re gonna see some real ugly offensive showings.

I absolutely want this offense to open up more, throw the ball down the field, and be able to win with via the run or the pass. Eventually. But simply throwing more doesn’t mean moving the ball better. For example, the top five teams in the league in terms of first down throwing percentage are (in order) the Bills, Bears, Texans, Racial Slurs, and Eagles. Aka, four dumpster fires and the Bills. Meanwhile, eight of the top ten offenses in terms of adjusted DVOA are in the bottom half in terms of passing rate on first down and five are in the bottom ten.

In the simplest of terms, let’s worry about passing well before we worry about passing more.  

The Mullens Meter. A resounding “meh” for this week. Mullens showed the ability to (mostly) operate when he was kept comfortable and didn’t have to work too deep down his progressions. Where he got into trouble was when he’d lock onto his primary read on intermediate routes—allowing underneath defenders and safeties to read his eyes—and when his brain tried to write checks that his arm couldn’t cash. This included the back shoulder wheel to Aiyuk, which was thrown far too inside for the rookie wideout to make a play on it, and the end zone interception off a fade route that had the same issue. 

The physical limitations are starting to show a bit, including nine passes deflected—many at the line of scrimmage—but Mullens at least showed some promise in the waning minutes of the game, where he was flushed out of the pocket and completed two off-script throws down the field. He’ll have the bye week—and (hopefully) an injection of healthy offensive talent—to build upon as he auditions for a backup role either with us or someone else in the NFL. He’s never going to have incredible arm talent or stature, but if he can improve between the ears—and start recognizing nickel blitzes—he could still have a strong month of play before Jimmy G comes back.

To his credit, Mullens is clearly a tough dude. For reference, here are his two roughing the passer calls versus Brees’:

🧐 pic.twitter.com/Mv9imDnCI2

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) November 18, 2020

Yeaaaaaah, let’s just say “protecting the quarterback” has a variable definition.

“Special” Teams. Far from a banner day from our special teams unit, which—other than Robbie Gould—has had some suspect performances this year. Two muffed punt returns, a punt that was nearly blocked, and a kickoff that was returned 75 yards when Jimmie Ward and Wishnowsky ran into one another made for quite the eventful day in specials (the Saints muffed two punts themselves, but recovered one of them). 

Richard Hightower is widely known as one of the better special teams coordinators in the league, so the performances this year have been disappointing to say the least. Although to be fair, it’s hard to say how much of this is on him versus the rotating door of practice squadders and waiver-wire pickups who now populate his units. He’s lost his top gunners in Raheem Mostert, Emmanuel Moseley, and Tarvarius Moore to major snaps on offense or defense while special teams ace Mark Nzeocha has been out since early in the season. The injury wave spares no one, but with special teams often filled with the backend of the roster to begin with, it’s been a full-on rotating door this season. 

Air Aiyuk. We may not have the capability to fully harness him at the moment, but Aiyuk is really coming along nicely. While usually guarded by the Saints’ top corner, Aiyuk had a career-high 14 targets while recording 7 grabs for 75 yards and a score. While that may not seem like amazing efficiency, he was getting open early underneath and deep down the field and has made serious strides this year—having now totaled 6-plus catches and 75-plus yards for the third game in a row.

While I’d like to see him improve his ability to play through mid-route contact and use his length to high-point jump balls, he’s quickly growing into a true three-level threat, showing vertical ability and that early separation that made Emmo so valuable for us last year.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brandon Aiyuk averaged 2.77 yards of separation at the time of release — most of all 49ers targets — even though the Saints were clearly focused on him defensively. The return of Deebo Samuel should really boost the 49ers offense

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 16, 2020

DEFENSE

Despite the score, this was actually one of our best defensive performances of the year. Saleh came in with a very strong game plan and some interesting personnel changes (which we’ll talk about later) as we limited the Saints to 123 yards passing. Sure, Drew Brees missed the second half, but our defense’s ability to come out firing and make quarterbacks look confused and off-target to start games is a truly impressive feat that—save the Packers game—has been one of the few consistent trademarks of what has been an up-and-down season.

The Saints were 2-of-12 on third downs. Their 237 yards of offense made for their worst offensive output since a 10-13 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day in 2018. While the team doesn’t have the record nor the defense the flash of last year, Robert Saleh has certainly improved his chances at being named a head coach sooner rather than later.

50% is always greater than 0%. Going in we’d said we had to stop Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Well, we absolutely accomplished half of that game plan, holding Thomas to 2 catches for 27 yards on 7 targets. Kamara… not so much.

I saw a stat that we missed 15 tackles in this game, which is a major bummer because we’d improved our open-field tackling so much this season, but I’d say at least a dozen of those missed tackles were from Kamara. To our credit, we swarmed him when he had the ball and absolutely stuffed him in the running game. While he had three total touchdowns, he finished the game with 8 carries for 15 yards on the ground. Ultimately, it was his 7 grabs for 83 yards (34 coming on a single screen) that really powered this offense and kept the chains moving when pretty much no one else was stepping up.

The Middle-Out Approach. Our outside corners were rarely targeted in this one, with the Saints choosing instead to work their matchups on the inside. Jamar Taylor, with regular safety help over top, was as invisible as we wanted him to be given his frequent matchups on Michael Thomas, while Greenlaw and Warner didn’t have their best games.

Despite being outflanked on Kamara’s touchdown catch off the Brees fumble, Warner was his typical blanket-like self in pass coverage, but wasn’t as sure as he’s been as a tackler on Sunday. Greenlaw was mostly victim of circumstance. When you’re the Saints and you’re trying to get Kamara the ball on a linebacker and one of those linebackers is maybe the only guy in the league who might be able to cover him, you’re obviously gonna target the other dude. Greenlaw was that dude this week.

The Saints found ways of lining up Kamara—or even Michael Thomas for one completion—on Greenlaw in man coverage and while Greenlaw has got speed, he doesn’t have go-over-two-picks-on-a-shoot-route-against-Kamara kind of speed. To his credit, no one does. To be clear, this game didn’t change my opinion of Greenlaw at all. It was always gonna be a tough matchup.

MOAR Moore. Saleh’s biggest surprise in this game was how he shuffled things up on the back-end, giving Tarvarius Moore the nod at strong safety to match-up with the Saints’ passing attack and speed. Moore, in his second start of the year, played very well.

When asked a week ago if the Niners should start Moore opposite Ward with Tartt sidelined, Shanahan had mentioned that Moore doesn’t have the ideal body type for a lot of snaps in the box. In this matchup at least, Moore stayed largely at deep safety, where his movement skills and speed really pop on tape. Even in bad special teams plays you can see those athletic talents, as he surely saves a touchdown on this kickoff return.

🔥Watch Tarvarius Moore run him down from across the field! @tarvarius2 #SMTTT 🦅 https://t.co/5ULalZ3rBz

— USMVoice (@USMVoice) November 15, 2020

I don’t know nearly enough about the Niners’ safety responsibilities to know if that meant Moore was actually playing more free safety and Ward more strong safety, or if it was simply a circumstance of the matchup (perhaps, caused by the Saints expecting Harris deep instead?), but the Ward/Moore combo was lights out all game.

However, Marcell Harris was far from left out in the cold in all this. When the Niners were in their base sets, Harris started at Sam linebacker in lieu of Azeez Al-Shair, giving the Niners a bit more coverage ability while risking a smaller player in the box against the Saints run game. Al-Shair has often been a target in coverage, and these two personnel moves likely took away a lot of what the Saints were planning to do in the passing game.

While I wouldn’t go so far as to say this is necessarily the norm moving forward, this gives the Niners an excellent set of options. If they’re keying a passing team (such as the Bills in week 13 for instance), this grouping makes a ton of sense, but if they’re playing a run-dominant team like the Ravens—who Harris was outstanding against—perhaps they want more size at linebacker and strong safety. Either way, I’ve long been interested in what the Niners’ long-term plan has been for Moore, who is often pointed out as their best defensive player who isn’t starting. So consider me fully onboard with giving him the lion’s share of safety reps so we can see what he’s got.

Popping Pass Rush Cherries. Two players along our defensive line registered their first career sacks in this game. Well, technically only one because Kentavius Street’s was wiped out by penalty, but he’s getting a shoutout regardless.

I don’t know what the future holds for Kentavius Street. He hasn’t made much of an impact this year despite a healthy number of snaps due to injuries along the DL. He’s clearly fourth in the pecking order along the interior, with DJ, Kinlaw, and Givens all cemented there. Perhaps he never fully pans out and is getting replaced by practice-squadder Darrion Daniels next year? Or perhaps his blow-by sack, in which he flashed the power and explosiveness that led the Niners to drafting him in the first place, is a sign of things to come? Flashes that the coaching staff had seen enough of that they were willing to bet on him rather than Jullian Taylor? Regardless, congrats to Street. Hopefully he registers another sack soon and that this time it will count.

Meanwhile, Javon Kinlaw had a performance that likely has a number of more anxious Niners fans breathing sighs of relief. The hustle had been there, he’d been getting close, but finally Kinlaw broke through with a handful of splash plays on Sunday, including a third down stop, a screen pass disruption, and a box score that read 3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits. There’s still a ton of polish, consistency, and growth needed in his game, but that’s a nice performance for the rookie to go into the bye with.

While we’re on the d-line, Kerry Hyder continues to be out here working. With 5.5 sacks through 10 games, he leads the team, and is on pace to surpass his career-high of 8 in a season. As I state every week, would really love for him to be back next year.

Also worth noting, Jordan Willis recorded a half-sack in this game. Now, in three games with the Niners and just over 100 defensive snaps, he has 1.5 sacks, which is more than he’s totaled in any season at any point in his four-year career. Sacks aren’t everything, but Willis has looked active and athletic since coming over from the Jets. Culture and coaching matter. There’s a very real chance we got a steal.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk10 @ Saints

A potential MVP candidate if non-QBs were ever included [Butch Dill/Associated Press]

Opponent: New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Date: Sunday, 11/15
Location: New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

If it seems like we’re always playing the Saints in New Orleans that’s because we are. Aside from a spanking at home during the Chip Kelly era, we’ve played the Saints five times since the 2012 season and each time it’s been in the Superdome. Each season—save again for that Chip Kelly one—it seems to have major playoff implications. This year is no different. For them at least.

Fresh off a resounding ass-beating of the Bucs, the 6-2 Saints have now won five in a row, and—just like the Packers and Seahawks before them—are atop the NFC and in pole position for the first overall seed in the conference. For us, the stakes are more about whether or not we can hang onto an outside playoff shot or if we’ll enter the upcoming bye with a plan that is a bit more geared towards the future.

But hey, at least there won’t be any fans.

INJURY REPORT

With practice squadder Austin Walter moved up to the active roster, the Niners have officially ruled out Raheem Mostert (ankle) for Sunday. He should be good after the bye… At receiver, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) was a “maybe” to return this week, but after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, that seems unlikely... Trent Taylor (back) sat out Wednesday, but practiced Thursday, so he’s hopefully good to go, while River Cracraft (yes, it has come to point where I’m giving River Cracraft injury updates) moved the other way this week, sitting out Thursday with a thigh contusion… Kendrick Bourne is the big question mark on offense. At the beginning of the week he was back on the COVID list after testing positive, then negative, then negative, then positive, over the course of last week. Now it seems like he’s in the clear, but whether or not he’ll be able to practice Friday and play Sunday is still up in the air.

The biggest news of the week is in our secondary, where Jaquiski Tartt (turf toe) was put on IR on Wednesday, and—as of Thursday—Shanahan said it’s the real real IR. Tartt will be out for the season. Meanwhile, K’Waun Williams’ high-ankle sprain makes for a tough decision. Since Williams has already been on IR once this season he CANNOT go back on AND RETURN again later this year. But with a 4-6 week recovery timetable, can/should the Niners hold a roster spot open for him for what could amount to (on the optimistic side) the last three or fewer games of the season? On the bright side, Richard Sherman (calf)—who hasn’t played since week one—returned to practice this week. However, this is more likely than not just to get him acclimated to practice again in anticipation of a post-bye return date. Shanahan says there’s a chance he plays against the Saints, but it’s highly unlikely.

Gearing up to throw -5 to 10 yards down the field, no doubt [The Athletic]

OFFENSE

Sean Payton has spent the past fourteen years piloting this Saints offense, and while the pieces and focal points may change, it is still—at its core—built on the back of Drew Brees, his quick release, and his pinpoint accuracy.

Brees, who turns 42 in January, lacks the arm strength and velocity that he once had but can still do 90% of what has made this offense so dangerous throughout the years. He makes up for a lack of size and declining physical tools with some of the best accuracy and anticipation the league has ever seen, and his ability to dink-and-dunk you to death gave our defense fits last year during a 48-46 shootout. He can still hit outside the hashes on a high-low read but that’s about what’s left of his arm strength and he has to shuffle into it. Luckily, the Saints’ scheme doesn’t require him to rifle in many passes because of the space provided by their bread-and-butter concept: four verticals. 

While “four verticals” sounds antithetical to a short-yardage passing game and more like what that guy who started experimenting with creatine in college and now thinks he’s a quarterback wants to run every pick-up game, it’s actually a terrific building block for an offense. The basic concept is that you’re sending four receivers deep down the field, which puts any two-high coverage into man and any one-high coverage into a bind down its seams. While four verticals can result in receivers simply running by their defenders, it more often leads to back shoulder fades (Marques Colston’s former specialty), mismatches down the seam (Jimmy Graham’s former speciality), or any manner of digs, crossers, curls, and deep outs that are opened up by selling the deep route and then snapping it off underneath into vacated space (Michael Thomas’ current specialty).

With endless tags, sight adjustments, and differing rules based on personnel and formation, four verticals can look vastly different from one play to another, and the Saints can attack you with it from any number of looks. Once you start to play off coverage, Brees will slice-and-dice in the quick game with all sorts of sticks, spots, spacing, and two-man concepts that take advantage of his quick diagnostic ability and the cleared space underneath. Basically, they use four verticals to stretch you vertically then hit you with a billion little paper cuts as you deny the deep ball.

Every Saints backfield has one inside and one outside guy. Alvin Kamara, a true rushing and passing threat who’s incredible in space, is the latter, while Latavius Murray acts as their battering ram inside. Kamara already has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this year, with 90 more yards receiving than rushing; he’s as much a receiver as he is a running back at this point, and regardless of how he gets the ball he is very dangerous in the open field. The two backs run behind a very talented offensive line, bookended by two of the best tackles in the game in Ryan Ramcyzk and Teron Armstead.

Their outside wideouts are all vertical threats and—recently at least—mostly low-volume, high-variance types. The real heavy usage is on the inside where their tight ends run seams and crossers and Michael Thomas—one of the best wideouts in the league—is an absolute target hog in the slot, gobbling up intermediate looks regardless of coverage. After totaling a single-season record of 144 catches last year, Thomas has been AWOL with injuries (and stupidity) for the majority of the season. As of last week he’s back and seemingly at full health. Lucky us.

If there’s a way to slow these guys down it starts with tackling Kamara in space and making them throw to someone who isn’t Michael Thomas. While Thomas’ absence in the early goings has had the unexpected benefit of forcing the Saints to spread the ball around, when you take away Thomas they’ve had issues in the past. We’ll throw a lot of different looks at their star slot receiver, but Jamar Taylor will have to absorb the brunt of the snaps and he at least needs to hold his own for us to keep this a ballgame. On the outside, the Saints are a bit like the Packers: their guys have the athleticism to make you pay if you find yourself out of position, but you’ll live with one-on-one matchups otherwise. That math changes a bit if the Saints have a healthy Thomas and (sad) Emmanuel Sanders on the field together for just the second time this season, but regardless, we can’t afford to give much extra help outside.

For the Future: Marcell Harris & Jamar Taylor

Nothing like going up against the Saints as an extended audition for our two up-and-down backups as they fill in for guys who are free agents at the end of the year. Taylor got roasted by the Dolphins, picked off two passes against the Pats, and has been hit-or-miss ever since. He’s back in the starting lineup and against a future HOF’er. If there’s ever a game to show that he can cover elite slot receivers and big-bodied tight ends this would be the one.

Meanwhile, last year’s matchup against the Saints was probably Marcell Harris’ worst performance in the past two seasons. If he gets the start—practice squadder and former first-round pick Jonathan Cyprien has been promoted so that's no sure thing—this will be an opportune time for Harris to show how much he’s grown in pass coverage. With Tartt out for the season and up for a new contract come spring, Harris/Cyprien basically have a month-and-a-half long audition for the starting role in 2021.

Cam Jordan, Pro Bowl defensive end and railroad robber baron

DEFENSE

The Saints are a 4-2-5 nickel defense that rarely ever plays without a slot cornerback, runs primarily single-high looks, and leans heavily on man coverage. 

Personnel-wise, the Saints are well-balanced with plus performers on each level. Cameron Jordan is a mainstay at defensive end, a top-tier edge rusher who’s never missed a game due to injury and has 137 consecutive starts despite being only 31 years old. He may only have 2.5 sacks on the season, but his presence has been felt. With Marcus Davenport back from injury on the other side, and a rotating group of talent along the interior, the Saints currently rank 4th in adjusted sack rate.

DeMario Davis was a first-team All-Pro last year at linebacker. While his play’s dipped a bit in 2020, he and Alex “looks like Fabio if anyone remembers Fabio” Anzalone are a talented duo who rarely leave the field. However, with recently-traded Kwon Alexander suiting up for the first time this week, how they rotate snaps will be interesting (and important in determining when our draft pick acquisition comes through). Often joining them in the box is their Swiss Army Knife safety Malcolm Jenkins. Signed from Philly this off-season, he’s often tasked with balancing out their defense, but he may have been brought in a year too late. He’s struggled at times this year and would have been the most likely candidate to be matched up in man coverage on George Kittle. Obviously, that no longer matters, but there’s still a chance that Jordan Reed could do some damage in this matchup.

Fourth-year corner Marshon Lattimore mans one wide corner position. He came on as one of the top corners in the league as a rookie but his play has steadily declined since. Realistically, free agent Janoris Jenkins has taken over as their top corner. Marcus Williams mans their deep safety and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson—who is well-known for getting under people’s skin and was last scene getting sucker punched by Javon Wims—is their nickel corner. Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers (without Davante) diced them up pretty bad early in the season, but—after they held the Bucs to three points on Sunday night—that seems like ages ago.

With a strong defensive line and talented linebackers, it’s not particularly surprising that the Saints have been stout against the run this season. That being said, we are pretty much obligated to try and overpower any team that refuses to put a third linebacker in the box. If Deebo is playing and can provide some edge play and misdirection, the Niners’ diverse run game will certainly whip up ways of forcing Saints DBs into crucial run-stuffing roles, and while their secondary tackles well as a whole, it’s a strategy that should also make them easier to target through the air. 

Since Deebo likely isn’t playing, expect a gameplan that leans heavily on Brandon Aiyuk and—if they’re available and the staff is willing to give them major snaps—KB and Jordan Reed. At this point I think we can all agree that Mullens is at his best when we’re getting the ball out of his hands quickly and shielding him from pressure. Those underneath passes may fit well into this game plan because if there’s a weakness for these DBs it’s likely on shorter passes rather than the endless array of deep balls that the Buccaneers refused to get away from last week. Screens are harder against man coverage, but we’ll need to incorporate some—potentially inside—as well as play action—to keep Mullens upright and rhythm.

For the Future: QB, Nick Mullens

While he may never be our franchise quarterback, this is Mullens’ team for the foreseeable future, and the better he plays the more it helps us in 2021–whether that’s as a member of our team or someone else’s. 

Mullens is a restricted free agent at the end of this year, meaning we can offer him a one-year tender on a first round, second round, or original round compensation rate. Thus we have incredible flexibility. If Jimmy G is our starter next year, his injury history alone means we need a strong backup. If we move on from Garoppolo, the staff would likely want to keep an established veteran such as Mullens as a mentor/bridge quarterback for a rookie signal caller. Or if Mullens absolutely explodes, showing a ceiling and consistency that makes us (or anyone else) believe he could be a starting quarterback, then we get another year to try him out while simultaneously dangling him as trade bait. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that last scenario happening, but regardless of how Mullens plays, our ability to retain him on the cheap for another year gives us a lot of options. 

Additionally, if Mullens plays well and we want to let him walk, there are enough teams running Shanahan’s scheme that the contract he would receive—even as a backup QB—would net us some kind of comp pick. It would be unrealistic to think Mullens would line up the kind of starter-turned-backup-turned-starter contracts that Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles recently signed—both netting third round comp picks—but at least a sixth rounder is well within reason and much better than nothing.

On the road as a 9.5-point underdog after two straight beatdowns as we gimp towards the bye, it’s hard to get super excited about this matchup. That being said, we’re still a team that’s well-coached and talented enough to be competitive down the stretch. The question is whether we show that this week or if we’ll need the bye to regroup.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Packers 34, Niners 17

54.6% of our total offense [Jed Jacobsohn/AP Photo]

Eh.

I guess that’s what we should have expected.

Late in the first quarter, this was still a game. After a leaky start, our defense settled in and held the Packers to two quick punts sandwiching an 11-play, 76-yard, should-have-been-touchdown drive that was foiled by the inexperienced hands of practice squadder River Cracraft.

On our next possession a bad hold on second down set up a third-and-long, our last-second replacement at left tackle opened the gate for Preston Smith, and Nick Mullens—as he is want to do when he gets pressure in his face—tossed the ball up for grabs.

Despite the interception and good field position, our defense held strong once again, but—when it looked like we had held the Packers to a field goal—a horrendous third down PI on Jason Verrett set the Pack up for an easy touchdown. From there, our already depleted tank was tapped out, and it was off to the races.

Yes, it was only three plays, and yes, we were highly likely to lose this game regardless. But this team, in this state of health, with this jumbled week of preparation, couldn’t really afford any bad breaks. And when they came, we hurried this game along to its inevitable end as quickly as possible.

For anyone who watched it all the way through, that wasn’t nearly quick enough.

OFFENSE

Unimpressive? Yes. Unexpected? Only a little bit.

While we moved the ball well to start, our offense fizzled out after we got out of our initial script. Considering that script had to be entirely rearranged in the eleventh hour after Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams were made inactive the afternoon before kickoff, and that their replacements—two practice squadders and a mostly-special teams receiver coming off an ankle injury—had zero in-person practice reps due to the shutdown of the Niners facility on Wednesday, that probably shouldn’t have been surprising. FWIW, it was confirmed on Friday that KB’s COVID test was actually a false positive, meaning all three of our top offensive players shouldn’t have had to sit out the game. 

2020. Le sigh.

The circumstances were rough, but it was an equally rough performance from Nick Mullens, who needs to show out to cement the backup position for next year and/or audition for other teams in free agency. To be fair, he was thrown into a losing situation. Whether it was due to drops, miscommunications, lack of reps, inaccuracy, or all of the above, a lot of balls hit the grass in this one, and—while some were clearly more Mullens’ fault than others—you’re just not gonna have a lot of success throwing to dudes on gameday who you haven’t even thrown to in practice. River Cracraft for example was likely a true practice squadder during this week’s practices, emulating the opposition’s playbook as—through Tuesday night at least—KB, Aiyuk, James, Taylor, and Kevin White were all expected to play. How many passes has Mullens thrown to Cracraft within the Niners’ offense? How many has he thrown outside of training camp? Does the number rhyme with “hero”?

It was a bummer for Mullens, who did nothing to assuage our concerns of another Eagles game down the pipe. It was a bummer for Justin Skule, who was a turnstile all night and directly led to both Mullens turnovers. It was a bummer for JaMycal Hasty, who saw his star drop as he ceded touches to McKinnon and who fumbled (even if it didn’t count this time) for the second week in a row. It was a bummer for River Cracraft, who entered this game with a single catch over the past three years and who may never have a chance at a touchdown again. And boy ever was it a bummer to watch. 

Stock Up: Richie James

Sure, he had one ugly drive-killing drop, but he also exploded for 9 catches, 184 yards, and a score (and only half of that came in garbage time). James was the only guy all night who looked like a threat further than five yards down the field, finding spots behind the Packers’ shallow zones and showing nice juice after the catch.

James, who totaled more receiving yards this game than he had in either of his past two seasons, missed weeks 2-5 but finally seems to be rounding into (fingers crossed) decent health. After seeing only 33 offensive snaps to Trent Taylor’s 164 leading up to this game, James’ performance on Thursday should at least provide a strong pitch for evening out that disparity moving forward.

Stock Up: Daniel Brunskill

For the first time this season, Daniel Brunskill got the start at center, a move that is likely as much about the future as it is about Hronis Grassu’s major struggles last week. Brunskill was solid in his first start, seemingly communicating and moving well throughout the game, with his only real knock that he’d sometimes lose ground off the snap to bull rushes from Kenny Clark. 

Brunskill, whose listed weight varies from 256 to 300 pounds, is not the biggest dude—nor is he the most freakishly athletic—but he’s smart, plays good positional football, and could be the heir apparent at center. Ben Garland is thirty-two, Weston Richburg is due a massive salary next year that we are highly unlikely to pay, and—while Tom Compton started Thursday at guard—the Niners could be spending the back end of this season trying out a Tomlinson/Brunskill/McKivitz interior line for 2021 and beyond. If that trio can hold their own and show some upside moving forward, that could be a good place to save some much-needed money this off-season.

Stock Down: Justin Skule

Just two years into his career, our 2019 sixth-round swing tackle has had quite the whirlwind of a career in San Francisco. After a rough training camp last year, I gave him the Greg Mabin/Dontae Johnson Award (hence renamed the Brian Allen Memorial Award) as the player I was most terrified to see play meaningful snaps. Then he started eight games(!) at left tackle(!!), and we went 13-3. 

Granted there were hiccups—like a game where he was dinged up and got worked by (yup) the Packers as well as the Steelers contest where he, by himself, gave up a whopping -40 marginal penalty yards in the fourth quarter—but he was a sixth-round rookie starting major snaps for the NFC Champions. Throw in a 2020 training camp where he was being lauded as much improved, and the arrow was clearly pointing up.

But then, as a last second sub for the COVID-adjacent Trent Williams, he got worked. According to PFF, he allowed six pressures, three hurries, two QB hits, one sack, and had the lowest individual grade of any player on the Niners. He was also directly connected to both of Nick Mullens’ turnovers. After this performance, it’s hard to have a ton of faith in him as a swing tackle, much less a potential replacement for Williams if he leaves.

DEFENSE

Not the best performance from our defense, which folded rather quickly despite being much closer to full-strength than it’s been since the early season. As discussed above, we had a string of good drives early, but the touchdown set up by the Verrett penalty and the ensuing Tartt injury that set up the deep score to Marquez Valdez-Scantling effectively put this game out of reach. 

Tartt apparently has turf toe, which means he could be back in time to play the Saints or he could miss weeks. I think we know which one is likely to happen… Meanwhile, K’Waun Williams also left the game early. He has—wait for it… a high-ankle sprain. Whoever guessed that gets absolutely nothing as it was certainly the heavy Vegas favorite and casinos can’t risk taking bets on such a sure thing while being heavily affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Until proven otherwise the story on the Packers remains as follows: if you have a disruptive pass rush you can give them fits; if you don’t, it’s hard to keep them in check. Considering star left tackle Erik Bakhtiari was out with injury, it was disappointing that we couldn’t create more pressure on Rodgers, who we only hit once all game. 

It is not without reason to think that part of why we looked relatively flat was the whirlwind of a week that started with locker room-favorite Kwon Alexander getting traded on Monday and ended with COVID shutdown madness on Wednesday, but at this point it seems pretty clear: we have a good defense that can perform like a very good one as long as we’re playing complementary football. It goes without saying that wasn’t the case on Thursday night. 

Stock Up: Jordan Willis

While the healthy return of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford in 2021 is still the most direct solution to the majority of our pass rush woes, how our Bravo (second team) unit shapes up will be an intriguing subplot this off-season.

Kerry Hyder may have played so well and gotten so many snaps that we’ll get priced out of his services, but he’d obviously be someone we’d love to lead our second-line. Ronald Blair, assuming he comes back healthy at some point this year or in the off-season, would make a lot of sense as well. Since his rehab has been stalled, it’s unlikely he gets so healthy so quickly that he can leverage this year into a bigger deal, and—lest we forget—the dude is a very talented pass rusher. If both the guys above plus Bosa and Ford come back we are obliterating offensive lines next year, but even if they do, this year has made it clear how important it is to stockpile edge rush depth.

Jordan Willis, who is really only getting by on hustle and glimpses of athleticism at this point, recorded the only sack in this game for the Niners, chasing down Rodgers for an eleven yard loss right before the half. Time will tell if he’s long-term, second-line material, but what makes him extra intriguing is the fact that if he comes back for the Niners next year he may have a glow up. 

Jordan Willis has three career sacks (one in each season, not including 2020), but displayed elite athleticism at the Combine after an 11.5-sack senior year at Kansas State.

He's played just 11 percent of snaps for the Jets this year #49ers https://t.co/WOYg39A3F3 pic.twitter.com/WNiRAxDhvX

— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) October 21, 2020

As discussed earlier, Jordan Willis blew up the 2017 NFL combine, putting up Myles Garrett-esque numbers. However, he actually did so well in athletic testing that both the Bengals and the Jets both moved him to linebacker—an edge linebacker, not a traditional stand-up one, but a linebacker nonetheless—and tasked him with adding weight. While Willis was 255 when he played in college and tested at the combine, he now plays at 270. With Bosa at 266 and Ford at 252, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners work on finding a weight that actually works best for optimizing Willis’ physical ability. 

I am completely guessing here, but I don’t think Dee Ford comes back this season. But even if he does, Willis will have plenty of opportunities to prove that he belongs in our DL rotation moving forward.

Stock Down: Marcell Harris

And just when it looked like he was fixing some of his issues in deep coverage…

Granted, Harris was put in a tough position on the touchdown he allowed to MVS—showing box play before bailing deep into quarters coverage against a skinny post. But that’s also the kind of play that a healthy Tartt has the agility and athleticism to at least force a contested throw.

Harris delivered at least one of his trademark big hits in the second half, and there’s a chance—I admittedly wasn’t paying much attention once we were down big—that he was doing well in coverage on most other snaps. That’s usually the case with him, mostly solid play, but when he’s on the bad end of a play it sticks out. That’s a hard line to tow at safety.

The Niners will have 10 days rest before facing a Saints team that just beat the ever-loving-shit out of one of the NFC’s many would-be front runners, then we’ll head into a much-needed bye. While the severity of many of our key injuries is great enough that the bye isn’t going to solve our woes, it will give us time to regroup, heal up, and get our remaining players on the same page.

Go Niners 👍🏈