Preview: Wk12 @ Rams

Coming into your nightmares like… [Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
Date: Sunday, 11/29
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PM PT
TV: FOX or wherever you stream it illegally

The NFC West is like one giant game of rock, paper, scissors. 

The Cardinals’ quick-passing game and scrambling quarterback works well against our deep shell zones. Aaron Donald’s ability to create havoc on an overmatched interior and rein in Russell Wilson has helped the Rams to a 5-2 record against the Seahawks in the Sean McVay era. And our knowledge of the Rams’ offense and ability to rattle Jared Goff have given us three straight over the Rams. But this time around, the health gap between our two squads threatens to bring that streak to an end. 

Last we saw the Rams, they were making their pitch as one of the best and most complete squads in the NFC, the Dodgers and Lakers were encouraging them to “do their part” in bringing a third professional championship to Los Angeles (and people weren’t audibly laughing), and the team itself was doing your classic LA sports team shit—like making proposals such as this one:

"Our goal hopefully is we can get to the point where maybe we can unveil a new uniform every year, either the way we space it out or whether the NFL and Nike changes those rules,” Demoff said, via USA Today's Rams Wire. "Maybe a little bit more of a European soccer model where you come out with that alternate jersey each year. Some people like that, some people don't. But yeah, we could see that."

Since we beat them in week 6, the Rams have gone 3-1 against four straight (potential) playoff teams and have knocked off two of the top teams in the NFC in back-to-back weeks. They’re also one of only three teams in the NFL with top 10 DVOA ratings in both offense and defense. Unfortunately for us, we should expect a stiffer challenge in our rematch as the Rams attempt to hold onto the lead in the NFC West.

INJURY REPORT

Since this is getting posted Wednesday morning to avoid Thanksgiving, the Niners have yet to practice this week so all of this is conjecture. With an extra week to rest up from the bye, this was the intended return date for Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, and Richard Sherman. Deebo seems like a shoe-in to play, Sherman has been practicing since the week leading up to the bye, and both Mostert and Wilson had their practice windows opened on Tuesday. How many of them truly return won’t be known until much later in the week, but rest assured, each of them would make for a huge boost. 

A noodle al dente [Jae C. Hong / Associated Press]

OFFENSE

For 8 games this season, the Rams have looked like the most complete and well-rounded team in the NFC. For 2, they’ve been sunk by Jared Goff implosions. Since his first bottom-out against us, Goff’s been efficient against the Bears, slung it all over the field against the Seahawks and Bucs, and turned the ball over four times against the Dolphins. Coming off two of his better performances of the year, Goff will look to keep the momentum rolling in an offensive scheme that has been adjusted to minimize variance.

We went over the core tenants of their offense in the earlier writeup, so I’ll focus more on what’s changed since then. The Rams’ implosion against our defense has led to a series of small tweaks rather than any large ones. They still want to run the ball. They still want to get the ball out of Goff’s hands with quick pre-snap reads and half-field combination routes while on the move. But unlike before, when they largely required some modicum of rushing success to tap into their passing game, they seem to have found the ability to do one or the other—run the ball or throw quick passes—without exposing themselves.

Against the Seahawks, the Rams were held to 3.7 yards/carry and just over a hundred yards on the ground but threw for over 300 in an efficient win. Against the Bucs, their rushing output provided a measly 37 yards on 1.9/carry, but Goff—outside of two sketchy interceptions in the second half—diced them up for 376 and three scores on 51 pass attempts. 

Over the past two years, that kind of Rams game plan has often meant less-than-ideal efficiency, turnovers, and losing football. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Rams had been 0-5 in games where Goff attempted more than 45 passes. Their first win with such a pass-heavy lean was this Monday against the Bucs. So what’s changed to allow this offense to throttle the #1 defense in total DVOA and passing DVOA without any semblance of a rushing attack?

The Rams’ aerial explosion is less the product of them opening up their downfield passing attack and more a case of them leaning even deeper into what they are at their most comfortable doing: quick game and screens, half-field reads, play action passes, and—as we saw last year—a willingness to show tons of play action looks even when the run game is largely nonexistent.

While many coaches would go into their bye weeks thinking up ways to get better at what was—up until that point—an offensive weakness, McVay decided instead to double down on what they were good at. They now have more screens, more outlets to get the ball quickly out of Goff’s hands, and more ways to—in essence—protect their quarterback and play to his strengths. By getting Goff into these grooves, he’s in turn become more comfortable throwing the ball down the field and his play as a whole has elevated. Granted, he will still have the occasional lapse—the Dolphins game wasn’t that long ago and a pair of ugly picks made McVay very conservative late in the Tampa Bay game—but McVay and the post-bye week Rams have done a good job of increasing Goff’s comfort level and decreasing his variance.

Ultimately, that makes defending this offense more difficult, but doesn’t necessarily change what our defensive goals should be. We want to stop easy yardage on the ground, force Goff to throw drop back passes from the pocket, and minimize YAC yards via quick diagnoses and strong tackling in space.

In our last matchup, the Rams found their most consistent success on interior runs with outside misdirection, but by the time they’d realized that the score had forced them into more of a passing game. While the Rams have found ways to pass at higher volumes with more success, they’d like to be more balanced, and I would guess they make a concerted effort to get the ground game going early in our rematch.

Since they’re likely to try to run and get the ball out of Goff’s hands quickly, it may make the most sense to rush with four, key the bootleg, and try and confuse Goff with an assortment of looks rather than leaning on an undermanned pass rush. Initial-look confusion and collapsing (but not necessarily penetrating) pockets could get Goff out of rhythm, and once drop back passes become a greater part of the gameplan, then we can try and dial up some free hitters with delayed linebacker blitzes and pressure from the nickel position.

With Richard Sherman (hopefully) back from injury, how the Niners deploy him alongside a secondary coming off a lockdown game against the Saints will be one of the major questions of the day—and potentially a crucial one towards slowing up this revitalized Rams offense and seeing what our defense is going to look like for this back stretch of the season.

For the Future: Tarvarius Moore vs. Run/Screen Fits and Play Action

Tarvarius Moore has had two very nice showings as a starter this year, thus it is only fitting for me to mention him in this column and for him to immediately mess up. Just kidding. Hopefully…

Against the Saints, Moore excelled at taking away the deep ball and filled with great intent (and just enough mass) against their power running game. Against the Rams, he’s in for a totally different challenge. While their ability to run the ball behind a talented three-headed monster at running back will test his recognition speed and run fits, their heavy reliance on short passes and screens will test his ability to crash hard from the safety position and tackle well in space—which, for those of you who remember last year, wasn’t exactly his strong suit.

If Moore can once again flex his athleticism in coverage and his physicality as a downhill force against quick passes and the run, we’re very likely looking at our starting strong safety for 2021.

Dawgwork, the official mantra and mascot of the Rams defensive line and also a roided out pit who has definitely chased me through the streets of Boyle Heights.

DEFENSE

Defensively, the Rams have settled in quite nicely after a touch-and-go start to the season. In the past seven games, they’ve allowed over 300 yards only twice—once against the top-flight offense of the Seahawks and once against us. While during that time they’ve pitched a few absolute shutdown performances against the Racial Slurs (108 yards of offense!), the Dolphins (145 yards), and the Bucs (251 yards).

In our last matchup we dropped 390 yards and 24 points, the most yards the Rams have allowed this year and the second-most points (only to the Bills). We did this via the full deployment of a finally healthy Deebo Samuel on touch passes, a commitment to a physical running game, a series of quick hitters and screens underneath, and heavy doses of George Kittle (7-107-1 TD).

The Rams will certainly have adjustments in place to combat our horizontal stretch looks this time around, and while it’s possible we see the return of both Deebo and Mostert in this game, the losses of Garoppolo, Kittle, and Ben Garland will make for much tougher sledding in both the run and pass games. Shanahan often does well against teams that “do what they do” and don’t stray far from their defense’s fundamental rules, but if there’s hope for a Shanahan surprise attack it may be in the deployment of an emerging Brandon Aiyuk. 

While Aiyuk played in the first matchup, he’s progressed considerably since that time, and Sunday will (hopefully) mark just the second game where both Aiyuk and Deebo are fully healthy and playing at the same time. However, they’ll be matching up against one of the strengths of this defense. While Jalen Ramsey gets the majority of the attention playing wide corner and the Rams’ “star” nickel hybrid, Darious Williams has been tremendous opposite him, and John Johnson, despite his parents being wildly uncreative, has really held it down while splitting snaps deep and in the box. The Niners’ reliance on short passes between the hashes nullifies some of the impact of a talented duo of corners, but Shanahan will have to get creative without Kittle’s gravitational pull attracting attention away from the wideouts. Getting anyone on these linebackers will certainly be an emphasis in the passing game because while the DL and secondary have loads of talent, these linebackers are straight up bad—especially in coverage.

Ultimately, none of these passing game matchups matter if the Niners can’t establish at least a moderately efficient running game and the threat of play action. Jordan Reed has excelled as a receiver when he’s healthy, but someone needs to block the edge this game. Whether it’s Juice, who’s had an up-and-down year as a blocker, Ross Dwelley, who is an all-purpose sub but not a mover in the ground game, or even our wideouts sealing down into the box, we need to win those run game matchups on the edge if we’re to control possession at all in this game.

For the future: Interior OL vs. Aaron Donald, Eater of Worlds

In the last matchup, Daniel Brunskill—who struggled early in the season—showed out well against the All-Pro defensive tackle. Now Brunskill is at guard and Tom Compton/Colton McKivitz are splitting reps at guard with sub par results. With Donald’s ability and the variety of places he can line up along the DL, he has the potential to wreck a game plan before it can even get going—especially one that relies on a consistent run game and a backup quarterback who has had turnover issues when under pressure.

The Rams had Brunskill circled going into our week 6 showdown, which means they’ll have our two-headed rotation at right guard highlighted with a neon sign going into this one. The Niners’ ability to scheme up help on Donald and our guards’ ability to create stalemates in their one-on-one matchups could be the deciding factor in whether our offense gets off the ground or not.

Go Niners 👍🏈