Preview: Wk10 @ Saints

A potential MVP candidate if non-QBs were ever included [Butch Dill/Associated Press]

Opponent: New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Date: Sunday, 11/15
Location: New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

If it seems like we’re always playing the Saints in New Orleans that’s because we are. Aside from a spanking at home during the Chip Kelly era, we’ve played the Saints five times since the 2012 season and each time it’s been in the Superdome. Each season—save again for that Chip Kelly one—it seems to have major playoff implications. This year is no different. For them at least.

Fresh off a resounding ass-beating of the Bucs, the 6-2 Saints have now won five in a row, and—just like the Packers and Seahawks before them—are atop the NFC and in pole position for the first overall seed in the conference. For us, the stakes are more about whether or not we can hang onto an outside playoff shot or if we’ll enter the upcoming bye with a plan that is a bit more geared towards the future.

But hey, at least there won’t be any fans.

INJURY REPORT

With practice squadder Austin Walter moved up to the active roster, the Niners have officially ruled out Raheem Mostert (ankle) for Sunday. He should be good after the bye… At receiver, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) was a “maybe” to return this week, but after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, that seems unlikely... Trent Taylor (back) sat out Wednesday, but practiced Thursday, so he’s hopefully good to go, while River Cracraft (yes, it has come to point where I’m giving River Cracraft injury updates) moved the other way this week, sitting out Thursday with a thigh contusion… Kendrick Bourne is the big question mark on offense. At the beginning of the week he was back on the COVID list after testing positive, then negative, then negative, then positive, over the course of last week. Now it seems like he’s in the clear, but whether or not he’ll be able to practice Friday and play Sunday is still up in the air.

The biggest news of the week is in our secondary, where Jaquiski Tartt (turf toe) was put on IR on Wednesday, and—as of Thursday—Shanahan said it’s the real real IR. Tartt will be out for the season. Meanwhile, K’Waun Williams’ high-ankle sprain makes for a tough decision. Since Williams has already been on IR once this season he CANNOT go back on AND RETURN again later this year. But with a 4-6 week recovery timetable, can/should the Niners hold a roster spot open for him for what could amount to (on the optimistic side) the last three or fewer games of the season? On the bright side, Richard Sherman (calf)—who hasn’t played since week one—returned to practice this week. However, this is more likely than not just to get him acclimated to practice again in anticipation of a post-bye return date. Shanahan says there’s a chance he plays against the Saints, but it’s highly unlikely.

Gearing up to throw -5 to 10 yards down the field, no doubt [The Athletic]

OFFENSE

Sean Payton has spent the past fourteen years piloting this Saints offense, and while the pieces and focal points may change, it is still—at its core—built on the back of Drew Brees, his quick release, and his pinpoint accuracy.

Brees, who turns 42 in January, lacks the arm strength and velocity that he once had but can still do 90% of what has made this offense so dangerous throughout the years. He makes up for a lack of size and declining physical tools with some of the best accuracy and anticipation the league has ever seen, and his ability to dink-and-dunk you to death gave our defense fits last year during a 48-46 shootout. He can still hit outside the hashes on a high-low read but that’s about what’s left of his arm strength and he has to shuffle into it. Luckily, the Saints’ scheme doesn’t require him to rifle in many passes because of the space provided by their bread-and-butter concept: four verticals. 

While “four verticals” sounds antithetical to a short-yardage passing game and more like what that guy who started experimenting with creatine in college and now thinks he’s a quarterback wants to run every pick-up game, it’s actually a terrific building block for an offense. The basic concept is that you’re sending four receivers deep down the field, which puts any two-high coverage into man and any one-high coverage into a bind down its seams. While four verticals can result in receivers simply running by their defenders, it more often leads to back shoulder fades (Marques Colston’s former specialty), mismatches down the seam (Jimmy Graham’s former speciality), or any manner of digs, crossers, curls, and deep outs that are opened up by selling the deep route and then snapping it off underneath into vacated space (Michael Thomas’ current specialty).

With endless tags, sight adjustments, and differing rules based on personnel and formation, four verticals can look vastly different from one play to another, and the Saints can attack you with it from any number of looks. Once you start to play off coverage, Brees will slice-and-dice in the quick game with all sorts of sticks, spots, spacing, and two-man concepts that take advantage of his quick diagnostic ability and the cleared space underneath. Basically, they use four verticals to stretch you vertically then hit you with a billion little paper cuts as you deny the deep ball.

Every Saints backfield has one inside and one outside guy. Alvin Kamara, a true rushing and passing threat who’s incredible in space, is the latter, while Latavius Murray acts as their battering ram inside. Kamara already has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this year, with 90 more yards receiving than rushing; he’s as much a receiver as he is a running back at this point, and regardless of how he gets the ball he is very dangerous in the open field. The two backs run behind a very talented offensive line, bookended by two of the best tackles in the game in Ryan Ramcyzk and Teron Armstead.

Their outside wideouts are all vertical threats and—recently at least—mostly low-volume, high-variance types. The real heavy usage is on the inside where their tight ends run seams and crossers and Michael Thomas—one of the best wideouts in the league—is an absolute target hog in the slot, gobbling up intermediate looks regardless of coverage. After totaling a single-season record of 144 catches last year, Thomas has been AWOL with injuries (and stupidity) for the majority of the season. As of last week he’s back and seemingly at full health. Lucky us.

If there’s a way to slow these guys down it starts with tackling Kamara in space and making them throw to someone who isn’t Michael Thomas. While Thomas’ absence in the early goings has had the unexpected benefit of forcing the Saints to spread the ball around, when you take away Thomas they’ve had issues in the past. We’ll throw a lot of different looks at their star slot receiver, but Jamar Taylor will have to absorb the brunt of the snaps and he at least needs to hold his own for us to keep this a ballgame. On the outside, the Saints are a bit like the Packers: their guys have the athleticism to make you pay if you find yourself out of position, but you’ll live with one-on-one matchups otherwise. That math changes a bit if the Saints have a healthy Thomas and (sad) Emmanuel Sanders on the field together for just the second time this season, but regardless, we can’t afford to give much extra help outside.

For the Future: Marcell Harris & Jamar Taylor

Nothing like going up against the Saints as an extended audition for our two up-and-down backups as they fill in for guys who are free agents at the end of the year. Taylor got roasted by the Dolphins, picked off two passes against the Pats, and has been hit-or-miss ever since. He’s back in the starting lineup and against a future HOF’er. If there’s ever a game to show that he can cover elite slot receivers and big-bodied tight ends this would be the one.

Meanwhile, last year’s matchup against the Saints was probably Marcell Harris’ worst performance in the past two seasons. If he gets the start—practice squadder and former first-round pick Jonathan Cyprien has been promoted so that's no sure thing—this will be an opportune time for Harris to show how much he’s grown in pass coverage. With Tartt out for the season and up for a new contract come spring, Harris/Cyprien basically have a month-and-a-half long audition for the starting role in 2021.

Cam Jordan, Pro Bowl defensive end and railroad robber baron

DEFENSE

The Saints are a 4-2-5 nickel defense that rarely ever plays without a slot cornerback, runs primarily single-high looks, and leans heavily on man coverage. 

Personnel-wise, the Saints are well-balanced with plus performers on each level. Cameron Jordan is a mainstay at defensive end, a top-tier edge rusher who’s never missed a game due to injury and has 137 consecutive starts despite being only 31 years old. He may only have 2.5 sacks on the season, but his presence has been felt. With Marcus Davenport back from injury on the other side, and a rotating group of talent along the interior, the Saints currently rank 4th in adjusted sack rate.

DeMario Davis was a first-team All-Pro last year at linebacker. While his play’s dipped a bit in 2020, he and Alex “looks like Fabio if anyone remembers Fabio” Anzalone are a talented duo who rarely leave the field. However, with recently-traded Kwon Alexander suiting up for the first time this week, how they rotate snaps will be interesting (and important in determining when our draft pick acquisition comes through). Often joining them in the box is their Swiss Army Knife safety Malcolm Jenkins. Signed from Philly this off-season, he’s often tasked with balancing out their defense, but he may have been brought in a year too late. He’s struggled at times this year and would have been the most likely candidate to be matched up in man coverage on George Kittle. Obviously, that no longer matters, but there’s still a chance that Jordan Reed could do some damage in this matchup.

Fourth-year corner Marshon Lattimore mans one wide corner position. He came on as one of the top corners in the league as a rookie but his play has steadily declined since. Realistically, free agent Janoris Jenkins has taken over as their top corner. Marcus Williams mans their deep safety and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson—who is well-known for getting under people’s skin and was last scene getting sucker punched by Javon Wims—is their nickel corner. Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers (without Davante) diced them up pretty bad early in the season, but—after they held the Bucs to three points on Sunday night—that seems like ages ago.

With a strong defensive line and talented linebackers, it’s not particularly surprising that the Saints have been stout against the run this season. That being said, we are pretty much obligated to try and overpower any team that refuses to put a third linebacker in the box. If Deebo is playing and can provide some edge play and misdirection, the Niners’ diverse run game will certainly whip up ways of forcing Saints DBs into crucial run-stuffing roles, and while their secondary tackles well as a whole, it’s a strategy that should also make them easier to target through the air. 

Since Deebo likely isn’t playing, expect a gameplan that leans heavily on Brandon Aiyuk and—if they’re available and the staff is willing to give them major snaps—KB and Jordan Reed. At this point I think we can all agree that Mullens is at his best when we’re getting the ball out of his hands quickly and shielding him from pressure. Those underneath passes may fit well into this game plan because if there’s a weakness for these DBs it’s likely on shorter passes rather than the endless array of deep balls that the Buccaneers refused to get away from last week. Screens are harder against man coverage, but we’ll need to incorporate some—potentially inside—as well as play action—to keep Mullens upright and rhythm.

For the Future: QB, Nick Mullens

While he may never be our franchise quarterback, this is Mullens’ team for the foreseeable future, and the better he plays the more it helps us in 2021–whether that’s as a member of our team or someone else’s. 

Mullens is a restricted free agent at the end of this year, meaning we can offer him a one-year tender on a first round, second round, or original round compensation rate. Thus we have incredible flexibility. If Jimmy G is our starter next year, his injury history alone means we need a strong backup. If we move on from Garoppolo, the staff would likely want to keep an established veteran such as Mullens as a mentor/bridge quarterback for a rookie signal caller. Or if Mullens absolutely explodes, showing a ceiling and consistency that makes us (or anyone else) believe he could be a starting quarterback, then we get another year to try him out while simultaneously dangling him as trade bait. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that last scenario happening, but regardless of how Mullens plays, our ability to retain him on the cheap for another year gives us a lot of options. 

Additionally, if Mullens plays well and we want to let him walk, there are enough teams running Shanahan’s scheme that the contract he would receive—even as a backup QB—would net us some kind of comp pick. It would be unrealistic to think Mullens would line up the kind of starter-turned-backup-turned-starter contracts that Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles recently signed—both netting third round comp picks—but at least a sixth rounder is well within reason and much better than nothing.

On the road as a 9.5-point underdog after two straight beatdowns as we gimp towards the bye, it’s hard to get super excited about this matchup. That being said, we’re still a team that’s well-coached and talented enough to be competitive down the stretch. The question is whether we show that this week or if we’ll need the bye to regroup.

Go Niners 👍🏈