Preview: Wk9 vs. Packers

Don’t be the Texans. In any way. [Getty Images]

Opponent: Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Date: Thursday, 11/5
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 5:20 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Football is obviously more fun when you have a chance of competing on the highest level. With our insane stretch of injuries, that’s not something we can realistically do. To be fair, I still think our staff has the chops and our roster the depth to pants a few teams the rest of the way—after all, Mullens to Pettis was the dynamic duo that beat a playoff bound Seahawks late in 2018. But the shift of our focus as fans is clearly towards 2021, and to reflect that I’ll try and shift these previews and recaps as such.

INJURY REPORT

LOL. 

I’ll bypass the long list of guys who we KNOW are out in lieu of those we actually had hope for. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out. Jaquiski Tartt hasn’t practiced yet but there’s been no official word on if he’ll play. Jordan Reed practiced limited on Tuesday, which means he’s probably on the right side of a 50/50 chance at playing against the Pack. Richie James also was limited. Shrugging emoji for his status. Everyone else who you think might be injured almost certainly is and won’t be playing.

On the COVID side of things Kendrick Bourne just tested positive this morning. It seems like he’s the only one who has been isolated. With Samuel and Bourne out, Pettis just waived, and Richie James a question mark for this week, we are getting into rando territory. The Niners are likely to spend all the 2020 money they just freed up by waiving Pettis to promote former first-rounder and (lol) oft-injured Kevin White for the rest of the year as an extended tryout for the future and/or bring up someone like River Cracraft.

For self-flagellatory purposes, I decided to make a depth chart for this week. RED marks players who are injured or no longer with the team, YELLOW means they might play, GREEN with bold font are your expected starters this week, “(PS)” marks someone who was on the practice squad initially, and “FA” marks someone who we literally picked up off the street.

I noticed after completing this chart that I forgot Jalen Hurd. He would probably push Taylor back a slot.

UPDATE: Nevermind, KB’s “close contacts” have been confirmed as Brandon Aiyuk—our best remaining offensive weapon—and Trent Williams—our best lineman. So neither of them will be playing Thursday either 🙃👍

HAPPY TRAILS

On Monday we shipped KWON ALEXANDER to the Saints in exchange for a conditional fifth-round pick and Kiko Alonso, my least favorite player. It’s unclear whether Kiko was a wanted piece in the trade or a salary dump from the Saints so they could bring on Kwon’s salary, but either way he’s on the last year of a contract that will only count $900K against our cap, hasn’t played this season due to a late ACL tear in 2019, and has done little in the league after a promising start to his career. When healthy he’s not a terrible player and Azeez Al-Shair has been uneven in his second year, but my hope is that Alonso is cut, or—at worst—held as a reserve for the rest of the season before being let go on an expiring contract.

The real goal of this move was to dump Kwon’s salary and add a 2021 draft pick as we enter an off-season with a ton of roster turnover. After a contract restructure earlier this year, trading Kwon means we’ll be on the hook for $6.9M in dead money in 2021–a considerably smaller figure than the $15.6M he’d have otherwise cost against our cap. Given the deflated COVID cap and Dre Greenlaw’s bargain salary and starting ability, it was a move that should have been expected. The Niners were planning to cut Kwon in the off-season if they couldn’t find a trade partner, so literally anything in return was worth a trade. Thus, a fifth-rounder is a nice pickup, even if—as has been reported—Kwon needs to hit playing time parameters otherwise the pick is pushed to next year.

While Kwon never stayed healthy enough to reach his full potential in his year-and-a-half in San Francisco, he was a splash play guy who had a knack for the ball. But his most important contributions were in the locker room. Kwon created a mindset (and Hot Boyzz mantra) that the entire team embraced, while his super-positive, high-energy personality directly contributed to helping shape Fred Warner into the All-Pro-caliber player he is today.

While it would be a hard sell that his play justified his price tag, this is at least a case where the intangible benefits he provided were readily apparent. Now, were those benefits worth the $25 million we paid him for 14 games? That’s debatable. But if Kwon was the difference in changing the defense’s mentality and launching Warner’s play into the stratosphere then it was a move we’d happily make again.

After failing to find a trade partner, the Niners released 2018 second-round pick DANTE PETTIS on Tuesday afternoon. It’s crazy that he averaged 17+ yards/catch and caught five tugs through seven starts as a rookie but couldn’t crack a receiver-needy lineup in the past two years. While the physical talent was there, you can’t blame Shanahan for not doling out the snaps. Seemingly every time Pettis took the field he was either sticking out for the wrong reasons or completely disappearing for reasons equally as bad. The fact that he couldn’t even force a timeshare with Trent Taylor—who is a quality blocker but has brought nothing in the receiving game over the past three years—was disheartening after a training camp where things had supposedly “clicked.” All that said, I’d fully expect him to get swooped up off waivers when the smoke clears next week. Letting Pettis go saves us about $500k this year and his $1.36M base salary next year.

More surprisingly, the Niners also waived JULLIAN TAYLOR on Tuesday. Taylor, who was still on the PUP List due to a torn ACL last Thanksgiving, was locked up through 2021 and actually showed a ton of promise when he was on the field. Taylor was plagued by injuries in college, an issue that has—as evidenced by his placement on the PUP list—followed him to the pros. That being said he had super high-end potential, played well in limited snaps, was already much better than second-line DT Kentavius Street, and was on the third year of a very cheap four-year deal as we enter an off-season where DJ Jones is a UFA. Taylor was just scratching the surface of his potential and looked to have a clear path to second-team snaps, so I don’t really get the move.

Now there are a couple specifics of the PUP List that I’m not quite sure about which likely shaped this move. First off, my guess is that Taylor’s rehab had a hold-up and the Niners no longer expected him back by the end of the year. That theory would also play into the second note, which is that Taylor was waived with a failed physical designation, which I don’t know a ton about other than that it avoids an injury settlement. Perhaps this is a case where is being waived now with the intent of being re-signed later? If so, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be cheaper than his ~$800K price tag. Or perhaps they’re just happy enough with Kinlaw and Givens (and practice squadder Darrion Daniels?) that—regardless of whether DJ Jones returns or not—they were fine with letting Taylor walk. While this seems a bit like a DJ Reed situation (aka one that jettisons a talented young player for little in return), it could just come down to numbers. And not just saving them but being able to pay to operate the rest of the season.

As I’ve been saying, 49ers were very short on cap space. Jullian Taylor waive helps situation.

SF couldn’t have afforded to promote Kevin White from PS at SEA. See how that turned out (Pettis fumble). White promotion would cost $482k. Post-Kwon trade/waives, 49ers have some $$ https://t.co/S4DnEWz5us

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 3, 2020

We’re gonna have a lot of roster turnover this off-season. Perhaps, if healthy, Taylor can make his way back into our two-deep then.

Important hand signals or sex joke? You decide [FOX]

OFFENSE

A QB coach under Shanahan in Atlanta and an OC under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, Matt LaFleur has his roots in the same zone/play action based scheme as we do, but—like everyone else under the Shanahan extended coaching tree—it’s a simpler version than ours.

Last year LaFleur got credit for a quick turnaround in Green Bay, but there were concerns about how his offense meshed with Aaron Rodgers. Now, those concerns are all but gone. The offense, which was already ranked 9th in DVOA last year, has jumped up to 2nd in 2020, and the most obvious difference is in Aaron Rodgers’ comfort level in the system. They’ve catered and adapted the scheme to what Rodgers is most comfortable with, which was resulted in an offense that still throws the ball down the sidelines and hits the middle of the field with digs, crossers, and short posts but also uses motion and misdirection to scheme up quick hitters and run plays. That makes for a passing attack that is dangerous on all three levels.

On the ground, they employ a two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, both explosive runners and strong receivers out of the backfield. However, AJ Dillon, their 6-0 247-pound rookie power back, just tested positive for COVID. While Jones is expected to be back from injury, both Dillon and Jamaal Williams—who was labeled a close contact—are out for the game Thursday.

At receiver they have Davante Adams, a top-five wideout and probably the single best receiver on the planet at slipping press coverage off the line of scrimmage. He’s a massive threat on all three levels and can be a target hog if they like a matchup. Surrounding him are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard—two guys who are practically the same big-bodied but not overly dynamic player—and George Kittle’s buddy Robert Tonyan at tight end. There are weapons in the passing game but Adams is the danger man.

Through the first half of the year, Rodgers is playing MVP-caliber ball, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,948 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only 2 picks despite missing Adams for about half of those games. The offensive line—led by center Cory Linsley and long-time left tackle Eric Bakhtiari—continues to be a strength, keeping Rodgers very very clean against 90% of the competition. But therein lies the big question: exactly how much of their offensive output has been based on subpar competition? And what do they look like when they play a strong defense?

Through seven games the Packers have only beaten one team with a Defensive DVOA in the upper half of the NFL, and when they went down to Tampa Bay they were woefully embarrassed by what is perhaps the top defense in the NFL. During that game, the Packers—despite coming off a bye week—scored a season-low 10 points as Rodgers threw for 160 yards and two picks while getting sacked four times (or half of the number of sacks he’s suffered all year). If there’s one negative that seems to have held over from last year, it’s that ferocious pass rushes continue to cause very real problems for this Packers offense. If we had our defensive line I’d be pretty confident in saying we’d beat dat ass. Without them, this matchup promises to be much more complicated.

Rodgers is no spring chicken, but he has one of the best minds and arms in football and thrives when given the time and space to improvise. We’re likely to give him some blitz looks, whether we’re bluffing or not. Dialing them up on the right occasions and getting home when we inevitably send a cat blitz off the edge will be key to keeping Rodgers from getting too comfortable.

In coverage, we need to have a plan for Davante Adams and try to limit how much press man he sees. I’d assume their opening script features him in motion and isolated opposite trips as they try to get a sense of what we’re going to throw at him. Coverage disguises and variety will be key. If you can limit Adams’ impact and prevent those running backs from getting going in the run or pass game, then you’re fine with making everyone else beat you. While the other guys have a lot of size out wide, they do most of their damage on back shoulder fades and digs. If our linebackers get their depth in the passing game to play the inside breaking routes, we can live with that.

For the Future: S, Marcell Harris

If Tartt misses his third straight game, Harris will try once again to make the pitch for the starting SS job next year. Tartt is a UFA at end of the season and Harris—despite the superior athleticism of Tarvarius Moore and the defense’s move to more interchangeable safeties—seems entrenched as his backup at strong safety. While there are those in the fan base who have gotten impatient with Harris due to a few high-profile misses in coverage last year, he’s typically been better than his lowlights would indicate. He’s a smart, high-energy player, who really brings the wood on contact, and even in today’s NFL there’s a place for a player like that. 

Two starts into 2020—one against one of the top passing attacks in the nation—Harris is certainly playing his best ball, but the Packers will present another aerial attack that will test him in coverage. Harris is at his best as a glorified linebacker and doesn’t have the dynamic athleticism and versatility of Tartt, but if he can assert himself as a fundamentally sound cover guy who is no longer the target of elite passing attacks, his cheaper price tag and fewer health problems may be enough to convince the Niners to move him into a starting role in 2021. 

Probably who we should have signed instead of Dee Ford [PackersWire]

DEFENSE

In last year’s NFC Championship Game the Packers lined up in base 3-4 formation, with wide stand-up edges, tight Cover 2 and Cover 1 looks, and dared us to run. So we did. A lot. After we pounded them off tackle and around the edges to 285 yards rushing, you can rest assured, whatever we see this Thursday will NOT be what they showed us last November. 

Pettine’s scheme is based largely on four and five-man fronts with two stand-up edges, employing five or more DBs most of the time, and lots of exotic alignments and blitz looks—even though they don’t truly blitz that often. This naturally leans towards stopping the pass, as the extra DBs help in coverage, and the front seven’s comfort level with a number of looks helps generate pressure in a variety of ways. However, that really hasn’t been the case in year two. While the 2019 Packers were a strong unit against the pass and a sieve against the run, this year they’ve been pretty below average against both. Their DVOA rankings are 29th overall, 25th against the pass, and 22nd against the run. If there’s such a thing as a potentially soft landing for an offense full of backups on a short week against a division leader (that isn’t in the NFC East), this could be that. 

Za’Darius Smith is still their danger man on the edge. He leads the team with six sacks, but the exotic looks have failed to materialize much of a pass rush around him. Preston Smith, who tallied 12 sacks opposite Za’Darius last year, has only half a sack through seven games, while Rashan Gary—their 2019 first-rounder who they moved from defensive end to outside linebacker—has shown flashes of tapping his incredible physical gifts but is far from a major contributor. Even the return of NT Kenny Clark—who missed about a month-and-a-half with injury—and solid performances against the run from Kingsley Keke and Tyler Lancaster have done little to bolster their pass rush. Thus, this is a one-man band in the pressure department.

At linebacker, mainstay Blake Martinez is off being one of the only bright spots on the New York Giants and the Packers have replaced him with… a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of. Given their lack of production and the fact that two of them are first- or second-year players, I’d assume the Packers are riding the whole “stand-up linebackers don’t matter” analytics trend that seems to be taking the league by storm. While PFF gets a bit sketchy with their linebacker grading, the grades in this case are so aggressive that it’s worth noting them. As of now, none of the Packers’ top three linebackers have greater than a 44.2 overall rating, a 65.3 rating against the run, or a 44.3 against the pass. For reference, our backup linebacker Azeez Al-Shair, on just a few dozen snaps less than his Packers peers, has a grade split of 60.7/58.2/61.3. So yeah, there are some matchups to be had here, both on the ground and through the air. But with Kittle out and Reed questionable to play, those matchups may be harder than usual to exploit.

In the secondary, Jaire Alexander is their lockdown guy out wide. Every other corner is just okay. They employ Adrian Amos—their best safety—and Darnell Savage as every down safeties while Raven Greene and Will Redmond rotate as their big nickel, with the former leaning more towards box play and the latter about 50/50 in the box or over the slot. 

While the Packers will certainly be committed to stopping it, establishing a physical running game clearly needs to be a priority. Even if they sell out to against it, we’d be foolish to at least not try to repeat our success from last year—particularly after Dalvin Cook just dusted them for 163 yards rushing, 63 receiving, and four touchdowns last weekend. The Pack are strong along the DL, but it’s a tough matchup for them on the second level. Do they play two subpar linebackers to match beef with beef, or do they give up that size and roll down someone like Greene who’s played well against the run but gives up valuable size? Again, no Kittle means we’re missing our number one chess piece used to punish teams regardless of that decision, but if some combination of Deebo/Reed can play, there’s still potential for a personnel advantage. 

In the passing game, I was initially expecting split coverage looks that include some Cover 2 squat corners as they aim to muscle around our receivers on underneath routes and flood the shallow horizontal zones to counteract touch passes, swings, and short game. That being said, we could just see a lot of man coverage now. Realistically, I have no idea what our passing offense is capable of given a short week, Deebo out, Richie James a maybe, and KB going down the day before the game. Regardless, be prepared for weird ass shit on third down, where they love their exotic blitz looks—especially against a backup quarterback who has a sketchy record against pressure. Last time we played them, Shanahan burned Pettine with a third down draw against an exotic blitz that gave up gaps in the running game. The result was a 38-yard Mostert touchdown. We obviously won’t be able to get away with running the ball on every passing down (or will we…?), but if we can keep to third-and-manageable we may be able to scare Pettine out of some of his more risky blitz packages and make Mullens’ life a bit easier.

For the Future: RB, JaMycal Hasty

With Mostert, Wilson, and Coleman out, the undrafted rookie has got a shot to really assert his role in the running back rotation for 2021 and beyond. Mostert is the only member of the backfield—Juice included—who is signed through 2021, and while he’s proven to be an absolute stud when healthy, his lack of availability has shown light on how important it is to have a healthy stable of backups and rotational runners in the fold.

Neither Coleman nor Jet McKinnon seem likely to return in 2021. Jeff Wilson Jr. is a restricted free agent, so the Niners will likely slap him with the same one-year, second-round tender tag that they gave Matt Breida last year. But the Niners want at least three capable running backs, and right now Hasty has the first shot at calling dibs on one of those spots—a proposition that the Niners would love considering he’s a first-year exclusive rights free agent and can be locked up on the cheap through at least 2022. 

Given the status of the rest of our roster, who knows when Coleman and Mostert will return to the field this year. But while they’re out, Hasty—against an NFC contender with a soft rushing defense and only McKinnon to share the load—has the opportunity on Thursday night to make quite the pitch for a more permanent role.

Oddly enough, it’s once again the Vikings who present a favorable blueprint for how to beat the Packers—by plugging away on the ground against their suspect rushing defense. While the Packers are certain to be expecting that and are unlikely to be scared of Nick Mullens on a short week of practice with a depleted crop of weapons, the Vikings’ powerful run game was able to dominate the clock and play keep away from a Packers offense that—while explosive—is no longer built for the kind of wide open sets that Rodgers is famous for. And they did all that with Kirk Cousins attempting only 14 passes in the game. While I would recommend a bit more balance than that, there’s a chance that—even depleted—we can have success with a similar game script.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Seahawks 37, 49ers 27

Let’s all pretend this picture sums up what happened on the field [Joe Nicholson/USA Today]

While the end score was closer than the game ended up being, our backup-led flourish in the fourth pointed to all the issues we had in the initial three stanzas. Despite a banged up secondary and a pass rush which had been largely nonexistent until this point, the Seahawks bottled up our offense in the third quarter while theirs scored on their first three possessions of the second half.

By the time a gimpy Jimmy G went back to the locker room—joined shortly by a gimpy Fred Warner and a gimpy George Kittle—the score was 30-7. Given the injury news that came down the pipe Monday and the first of what could be multiple trades before the deadline later today, the focus of the previews and recaps will start to resemble what is now clearly the focus of the rest of the 49ers’ season: the future.

OFFENSE

Without Deebo’s ability to create with the ball and stretch out defenses horizontally, there were worries that we’d have issues against a team that—for all their poor statistics—was typically stout against the run. Those fears proved legitimate.

Faced with loaded boxes and zero threat of the passing game, the Seahawks held our rushing attack to 52 yards on 22 carries (2.4 ypc) and forced Garoppolo into dropback passing situations. Jimmy G—seemingly in an effort to extend our many questions about him indefinitely—saw his accuracy waver while the offensive line, which allowed three sacks to a team that had only nine on the year entering the game, struggled to pick up the Seahawks’ blitzes once they started dialing them up in the second half.

Missed opportunities: The Niners defense started strong and the offense was finding creases early in the game, but a failure to generate points on two trips inside the Seattle forty was an ominous sign of things to come.

Facing a 3rd & four from the plus 37 on our very first drive, we called a wildcat run that got stuffed for a loss of three. I personally hate the wildcat, and while this was clearly an attempt to gain enough yardage to potentially go for it on the ensuing fourth down—an overall management strategy that I agree with—I’d have preferred to show a pass set and run rather than handoff the ball out of the most run-obvious set in football. As discussed before, part of the benefit of being more aggressive on fourth down is the ability to run or pass on third downs, but by taking out the passing threat, we lost that element of surprise. The resulting loss decided the fourth down call for us and we had to punt. 

On the next drive, after we lucked out on a fumble recovery that bounced out of bounds, we had a 3rd & five from the Seattle 20 when Shanahan called an empty set double high-low return concept. With third and manageable against a team that prefers to play zone coverage, this is a good, safe call that clears out space, fakes a common high-low look, and—with the return tag on Kittle—allows for a low-risk pass attempt at the sticks. Theoretically. While Kittle could have ran the route flatter to the LOS, Garoppolo’s pass was so late and so behind him that what should have been at worst an incomplete somehow became a pick.

The squandered opportunities continued into the second half as well. While it seemed like we did absolutely nothing with our six plays in the third (that’s right, we only had six plays for net one yard in the third. If that’s not the ultimate game flow loss, I don’t know what is), the reverse Shanahan dialed up to Aiyuk was totally the right call. Unfortunately, the execution was lacking.

This is what Aiyuk was looking at when the pitch was botched.

Considering Aiyuk had to stop, pick up the ball, but still ran for 14 yards (for a gain of 5) it’s pretty clear how open this play was. With a proper pitch he was a single tackler away from a potential house call, a Niners lead, and a dangerous end around element that could open up inside running lanes. Alas, as was typically the case today, it didn’t turn out as expected and Jimmy was sacked on the next play.

It’s never good to squander scoring opportunities. It’s worse when you squander them while playing against one of the top offenses in football.

DJ Reed (sad face emoji): DJ Reed, former 49er dime back who was swooped up off waivers when the Niners cut him post-injury during training camp, was activated from the practice squad for this matchup and was highly disruptive from his nickel corner spot. 

When the Seahawks leaned into blitzing, it was actually Reed who was their pass rush catalyst—coming off the edge on cat blitzes to end both of the Niners’ third quarter possessions. On the first third down he and Bobby Wagner combined to pancake Mike McGlinchey before Wagner tallied the sack. On the second, he came free unblocked off the edge, pushing Garoppolo into the waiting hands of Alton Robinson. 

After a day where Reed also recorded the pick on Garoppolo and broke up two passes, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be the Seahawks’ starting nickel back moving forward. At least Damontre Moore—the other player we didn’t retain who now plays for the Seahawks at what has become a major position of need—didn’t do much in this game. Also, he just got suspended six games for PEDs. So we’ll count that one as a wash.

Second half shut down: While the first half was ugly and had plenty of missed opportunities, the Niners offense actually moved the ball okay. But in the second half the Seahawks turned up the blitzes and the result was two three-and-outs sandwiching a fumbled kickoff return that effectively put the game out of reach.

Part of the problem was likely that the Niners didn’t see it coming. After the game Trent Williams nearly admitted as much, saying that they didn’t expect them to “heat it up” as much without Adams. Thus the play calls, which inherently have hot routes, were likely made in anticipation of less blitzing and more time to pass. Neither of the third down sacks appeared to have a receiver open early so it’s hard to put either on Jimmy. Then again, neither of the blitzes had a numbers advantage either (aka we had enough men to block them). Shanahan could have dialed up options with quicker hitters on those 3rd & shorts, but I don’t think any play callers are expecting to to have to get the ball out under two seconds when they have five blocking five. Considering the issues we’ve had on blitz pickups, perhaps it’s something we should start expecting—even if that shouldn’t be the case.

Oddly Quiet Kittle: For a defense missing its star hybrid safety, with linebackers and safeties who have some vulnerabilities in coverage, it was an oddly quiet game from our All-Pro tight end. A would-be first down hit off one of his hands early on what seemed like some combination of an inaccurate throw and the expectation that Kittle settle a yard to the left of where he did. And of course there was the pick thrown his way.

A short week means I won’t be able to look at the coaches film to see what happened, but I would have expected a much higher level of involvement given the injury to Deebo and the weaknesses in Seattle’s zone coverage. 

Au Revoir 2020: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Tevin Coleman all exited the game with injuries. Coleman reaggravated his injured knee but the jury’s out on the severity of it. Jimmy G re-sprained his ankle and will be out a minimum of six weeks—longer if he requires surgery. Kittle is out eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot. While the team has fought admirably to this point, we’re about to have $80M of a $200M cap on injured reserve and that doesn’t include Kwon Alexander—whose $13M cap hit was taken off IR just in time to get traded on Monday—or the $7M in salaries on the PUP List.

So… half of our entire salary cap. Cool.

DEFENSE

I’m not gonna critique this defensive performance too much. Obviously allowing 37 points isn’t a winning formula for any football team, but this is a unit that—due to our offense stalling out and Dante Pettis fumbling the kickoff—had to play 15 straight snaps over a 7+ minute period against one of the top offenses in football. Again, game flow. We were able to get away with it at times last year since we weren’t missing half our dudes. This year, we’re only winning games against good teams with complementary football, and we just didn’t have that this game.

Coming in hot: We confused the Seahawks’ pass protection early, forcing them into a game script where they became unsure of themselves and their offensive line and leaned back on an ineffective running game. Unfortunately, that only lasted for the first two series. After Garoppolo’s interception tanked another opportunity for points, the Seahawks scored on five of the next six drives—four of those scores were touchdowns.

While our defensive line did a good job maintaining gap integrity in the running game—holding DeeJay Dallas to 41 yards on 2.3 ypc and limiting Wilson to 6 carries for 23 yards—our pass rush petered out rather quickly. Kerry Hyder was his normally dependable self—bringing down Wilson for one sack and forcing a throwaway when he nearly got him for another—and Jordan Willis looked pretty solid for his first game with the Niners. But it wasn’t nearly enough. It was rare that we got any kind of pressure without sending extra men, and every time we sent extra guys we were providing less support in coverage.

Ford and Blair are (theoretically) returning at some point this season and having either/both will be a huge boost. Until then, this is likely just how it goes against teams with high-level passing attacks: try to be efficient and generate negatives when we blitz then maintain gap integrity and crowd the QB’s space when we send four. It’s not ideal, but—given our injuries at the position—I’m not sure what else we can do schematically against a team that really excels through the air. 

Moseley on Metcalf: If there’s one thing Emmanuel Moseley has struggled with in his two-ish years as a starting corner it’s guarding big wideouts who are also vertical threats. We saw it last year with Julio Jones—the last of the big fast freak wideouts of yore—and DeAndre Hopkins—who may only be 6-1 but is a powerful 212 pounds and has elite tracking ability. While it would be premature to put DK Metcalf on the level of those two, his 6-4 229-pound frame and 4.3 speed—in combination with Wilson’s deep ball acumen and pinpoint accuracy—present problems for the 5-11 190-pound Moseley.

Metcalf is the perfect fit for the Seahawks offense because he has the size/speed combo to excel at vertical routes and then—after he’s forced a big cushion—just needs to run slants, back shoulder equivalents, and square-in routes off of that vertical stem to find open space. This isn’t to diminish what Metcalf has accomplished. He is damn good at those two things. And while Moseley is a good athlete, his lack of burner speed and length means he has to play more conservative on the deep balls. While he ended up 50/50 on nine routes—getting beat by a half step and a perfect throw on one early before knocking away a would-be touchdown late—the cushion he allowed opened up some opportunities for Metcalf underneath while he struggled taking away inside leverage while pressing a handful of slants.

There’s nothing Moseley can do about the physical advantages some of these wideouts will have over him, but that doesn’t mean he lacks the ceiling to improve. He’s very young and known for his work ethic and intelligence. If he can get better at staying high-shoulder and widening vertical routes towards the sideline that would simultaneously diminish the potential for breaking routes off of those vertical stems. And if he were less worried about getting beat by those verticals then perhaps he could more regularly deny inside releases on slant routes while in press. And of course, if our pass rush was more active he wouldn’t have to cover nearly as long. Despite a rough outing, I continue to be very bullish on Moseley, but as we approach teams with elite wideouts, it will be interesting to see if the Niners do more shadow work with Verrett/Sherman.

Misc: Marcell Harris seemed to play well in this game, rarely being targeted in coverage and closing hard and violently on underneath passes. If there was a knock on his game it’s that he was surprisingly ineffective as a pass rusher... Fred Warner was knocked out of the game in the second half but returned. It was apparently a stinger. Which, thank god, because he’s the one dude who can’t afford to lose on D.

Trade Deadline!?!?!? is today at 1PM (aka before many of you will read this). While our chances of being sellers and trying to load up for the upcoming draft have greatly increased in the past 48 hours, we’ll see if anything comes from it this late in the game.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 8 @ Seahawks

Go deep, God [Derik Hamilton/UPI]

Back in the early 2010’s, the Seahawks built a foundation on the talent of two incredible drafts and two simple but well-executed schemes—a physical zone-running West Coast offense and a 4-3 under defense that leaned heavily on Cover 3. These two schemes powered them to multiple NFC West crowns, two Super Bowl appearances, and one championship, but in recent years, they’d become a liability. Their run game was predictable and uneven and kept them from optimizing Russell Wilson’s MVP-caliber play. Their defense was too simple and no longer had the horses necessary to stop the changing wide-open nature of NFL offenses. This year—to the detriment of the rest of the NFL—they adapted. The result is a Seahawks team that is more dangerous—and aggressive—than they’ve been in years.

INJURY REPORT

The biggest news from last week is that Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (high-ankle sprain) will both miss this game, as both got injured on what could have easily been their last plays of the game before they were pulled for rest. Wilson was put on IR. Deebo has an outside shot at being back for the Packers game, but given the short week and Thursday night game time, that may be a stretch… the practice window has been opened for three guys on IR: K’Waun Williams, Tevin Coleman, and Jordan Reed. Each of them practiced this week in some capacity and could be back either Sunday or for next Thursday’s game. Of the three, K’Waun seems the most likely to return against he Seahawks… both Kwon Alexander and Jimmie Ward were limited participants on Thursday so they at least have a shot… as of Thursday, neither Jaquiski Tartt or Richie James have practiced this week. Thus, neither seem likely to play… as for the rest of our IR and PUP List gang, no one seems likely to return until—at earliest—the bye week… lastly, Jordan Willis cleared his COVID tests after the trade and will be suited up on Sunday.

OFFENSE

Gone are the predictable run-first sets on early downs as the Seahawks finally gave in to internet pressure (and appeals from their quarterback himself) to unleash Russell Wilson’s scrambling deep ball magic early and often. After ranking 26th in pass likelihood on first and second downs last year, they’re now the single most pass-heavy team on early downs. The result is an offense ranked 2nd in DVOA and 4th in passing DVOA that is finally maximizing its talent.

Wilson is playing the best football of his career. By now we well know his “scramble around then throw comebacks and sideline stop routes” ability, but he’s also throwing his breadbasket deep balls at a greater efficiency than ever. Aiding him is a pass catching group that excels at the scramble drill and one-on-one matchups. Tyler Lockett has slid smoothly into Doug Baldwin’s shoes as a perennially underrated threat who gets slippery separation on all three levels. DK Metcalf has continued to grow into his incredible physical talents and is at his best on the deep balls and broken plays that align so well with Wilson’s game. 

In the run game they continue to rely on bludgeoning interior runners—led by Chris Carson—and a straight forward zone scheme that creates double teams and tries to punish teams on the inside if they show light boxes. Unsurprisingly, their new commitment to throwing the ball has opened up lanes for their rushing attack as well. They currently rank 6th in rushing DVOA. However, they’re nearly as banged up as we are in the backfield, with their top three backs all questionable or worse for Sunday’s game. While it’s a pretty simple plug-and-play scheme on the ground, how a new back performs as a receiver and as a pass blocker could play a major role in how much we choose to blitz.

If there’s a weakness to this elite offense it’s—as always—the offensive line. While the unit has certainly taken steps forward this year they’re still one of the lesser pass blocking units in the league. To some extent that’s an acceptable issue for the Seahawks. They know Wilson will hold the ball and scramble away from rushers—two things that are naturally going to lead to more pressures. They also know that the NFL has called 41% fewer holding penalties thus far this year, a change that is advantageous for all offenses but particularly so for those with scrambling quarterbacks—who would otherwise give up some of their improvisational benefits for the drawback of putting linemen out of position and generating more holds. That being said, no one prefers bad blocking to good blocking, and while the Seahawks run one of the best and offenses in the league, if you control the line of scrimmage, you can cause problems. Two weeks ago, the Vikings—without their top pass rusher—would have beat them handily if not for back-to-back Kirk Cousins turnovers fueling a two-minute span in which the Seahawks scored 21 of their 27 points.

Schematically, the Seahawks are simpler than you’d expect for such an explosive offense. They throw the deep ball as much as anyone, but this isn’t the Chiefs where they’re running guys in motion and scheming dudes open down the field from exotic formations and route combos. To put it in its simplest forms, Seattle basically runs the single most effective game of three-flies-up known to man.

Take a look at these three frames on go routes (true go routes, not back shoulder fades) from the past two Seahawks game. Can you tell which two were completed and which one was picked off?

Is it this throw against inside-out double coverage and both defenders in great position?

How about this one, with Patrick Peterson stride-for-stride down the field?

Or this one where the DB is a full two yards further down the field than the receiver?

So do you know which one’s were big gains and which one was a pick?

No, you do not, because in none of these frames are any of these receivers remotely open at the time Russell releases the ball. And it’s not like they’ve caught a DB on their heels and this is an unflattering freeze frame before they’re about to breakaway. They often stay this well-covered through the catch point.

FWIW, the first frame saw Buddha Baker randomly lose the ball in the air while on inside coverage, spin in a circle and stop, allowing a touchdown. The second saw DK Metcalf cut off his route and Patrick Peterson run under the pass for an easy pick. The third saw the cornerback totally lose the ball in the air and get mossed for a 40-yard gain.

One of the reasons the Seahawks are so dangerous is because they never shy away from throwing these kinds of heavily contested balls. Everyone on the roster is physical at the catch point and excels at tracking deep balls and Russell is the king of the forty-yard teardrop. They know that a lot of DBs struggle to play the ball deep down the field, that Wilson’s accuracy and arc will make it hard for defenders to do any better than knock down the pass, and that a spot foul defensive PI is way more common than the other way around. So they throw these 50/50 balls throughout the game, knowing that their QB-WR combo can shift the math in their favor and that the sheer quantity of their attempts will result in some massive gains. When you defend the Seahawks deep ball you have to defend it all the way through the catch point.

The Hawks make a killing off of deep throws (well-covered and otherwise) and improvisation. They’re not schematically complex, choosing instead to let Wilson buy time and find receivers if nothing’s initially open. If you can cover them down the field and pressure Wilson in a way that reins in his ability to gain yardage on the ground and create scramble drills, they don’t have much of a short game to speak of. But doing that means sticking with two very difficult marks at receiver and winning through the catch point. 

We’ll certainly try to win on the interior against their run game and play over-the-top of everything deep, but it will be interesting to see how Saleh chooses to deploy blitzers. On one hand the speed of our linebackers could accelerate Wilson’s decision-making and take him out of scrambling situations that naturally favor his wideouts, but if we don’t get home with regularity we’d be opening up YAC potential on their dump-off passes—giving the Seapenises a short game that they otherwise may lack. 

Showing different pressure looks, even if we’re mostly dropping back into disguised coverages, will likely be on the docket, and ensuring we maintain gap integrity will be key given Wilson’s ability to create on the ground. Disguising coverages on the back end is a big part of any week’s game plan but will be particularly important this week in order to slow up Wilson’s deep ball reads and force checkdowns that we can rally up to. We’re not going to shut down the Seahawks offense, but if we can take away the explosive plays and minimize the backbreaking scramble drill conversions on third downs, we can limit efficiency by taking them out of their offensive comfort zones. 

DEFENSE

If the Seahawks’ offensive shift was predicated on the release of Russell Wilson, their defensive shift is built off the addition of all-purpose safety Jamal Adams. Since his acquisition, the Seahawks have moved further away from their Cover 3 base defense than ever before. Last year, the Seahawks lined up in base personnel (three linebackers) a league-leading 67% of snaps—which is an absurd stat considering (a) it was 2019, (b) they played the 11-personnel-dominant Rams and Cardinals twice a year, and (c) their linebackers were not that great in coverage to begin with. Now they’re leaning more towards nickel and dime packages, largely because Adams quite literally plays everywhere on the field.

Here are Adams’ snap counts based on alignment throughout the first three weeks of the season (he’s been out with injury since then). As you can see, he quite literally plays everywhere.

The result of Jamal Adams’ versatility is a defense that is more multiple and athletic than in previous years and much more capable at blitzing from the secondary—an Adams specialty. While the extra blitzing hasn’t really led to a better pass rush (we’ll get to that later), Adams’ presence near the LOS has helped them defend the run. The Seahawks started the season by holding the Falcons, Patriots, and Cowboys all under 73 yards rushing. While they followed that up by most recently allowing 201 to the Vikings and 159 to the Cardinals, they’re still rated 9th in rushing defense DVOA and will surely perform better if Adams returns this week. Adams was expected to return this week, but given that he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday due to illness, his return is questionable.

However, when it comes to defending the pass, this is one of the worst units in the NFL. Shaq Griffin is regularly considered a top tier corner and an ESPN poll of coaches and evaluators named him and Quinton Dunbar the ninth-best cornerback duo in the NFL. Consider me skeptical that a unit allowing nearly 370 yards passing has two of the best cornerbacks in the league. Griffin flashes but has never looked like a true no.1 to me and Dunbar—who was PFF’s 2nd-best corner in 2019–has seen a major drop off in play after he moved over from Washington. To be fair, they’re not a bad duo, but again, 370 yards passing per game... None of their non-Adams safeties have done all that well in coverage and Bobby Wagner, while still a stud in the running game, is only average defending the pass. There are matchups to be had in the passing game. 

Some of their issues in pass defense stem from a defensive line that has struggled to generate pressure. Despite having one of the league’s worst pass rushes last year, the Seahawks let Jadeveon Clowney walk in the off-season—believing that their young DL would develop as rushers. That hasn’t been the case. In response the Seahawks have turned more towards blitzing, and—while they’re no longer a bottom 5 unit like last year—they’re still a bottom 10 group when it comes to generating pressure. While they just made an unfortunately good trade for Carlos Dunlap, he won’t be through COVID protocols by Sunday so he won’t be playing.

The difficulty in this game will be balancing the need to target the Seahawks’ clear defensive weaknesses—their passing defense—with the need to stay balanced with the run game to optimize our own passing attack. If Deebo were able to play, I’d say we pound dat ass in the run game just as we did the past two games but with a touch more alley-hitting passes and play action shots to keep them honest. However, with Deebo and Mostert/Wilson out that means we’re missing both the horizontal stretch that has helped lighten boxes the past two weeks, and the sledgehammers who’ve punished teams when they did so. 

Brandon Aiyuk can replicate some of Deebo’s ability in the run game, but relying on him too much on fakes and touch passes will diminish his value down the field. Perhaps formation and motion games paired with misdirection will be enough to keep our ground-and-pound offense humming without taking Aiyuk off the line of scrimmage—after all, the Vikings run a similar base scheme as us and bludgeoned this defense for 200 yards despite missing Dalvin Cook for half the game—but it would be optimistic to think we’ll be able to do that without at least some Aiyuk some in the run game and an uptick in passing attempts and efficiency. In short, dudes will need to get open, our OL will need to actually do some dropback passing, and Jimmy G will need to complete passes down the field.

Kendrick Bourne, who‘s taken a backseat in terms of pass game involvement with Deebo and Aiyuk in play, will certainly need to step up in Samuel’s absence. With Richie James potentially out as well, this is a game where Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, or even (gasp) Kevin White may have to step up in the passing game. Regardless of who’s playing out wide, I’d expect George Kittle to be moved all over the place and heavily involved in the running and passing games. With Deebo down and us likely to pass, this feels like it could be a throwback target share performance for the people’s tight end.

However we do it, the most important thing on offense is to control game flow as best we can with long drives that tire out the Seahawks defense and keep their offense off the field. Teams that rely heavily on big plays often suffer more from lengthy downtime and a lack of touches. Both the Vikings and the Cardinals controlled the ball and dictated game flow in spurts against the Seahawks and Seattle’s offensive efficiency suffered as a result.

This is a very good Seahawks team, but their last five games have been decided by single scores; four of those came down to the final play. While one of the front-runners for the Super Bowl, Seattle is not a juggernaut, and if we contain their explosive plays and control game flow, we can put ourselves within a half game of the NFC West lead on Sunday. Two weeks ago that would have seemed absurd. Now, it’s a very real possibility.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 33, Patriots 6

Ruining fantasy lineups, one trucked defender at a time [Maddie Meyer/Getty Images]

It’s rare that you see a Bill Belichick team get absolutely man-handled on both sides of the ball, but that was the case—both schematically and in execution—on Sunday. Holding penalties and a Garoppolo pass that sailed in the first half were the only things that slowed down our offense, which didn’t punt until late in the fourth quarter when giving-a-shit time had long since passed. Defensively, we held Cam Newton to under 100 yards passing and picked him off three times en route to a QBR of 3.5 and a third-quarter benching. 

The 467-to-241 yardage advantage was the single biggest differential in any game this season, and the 33-6 loss was the worst home loss in Belichick’s two-decade history helming the Pats. While this is far from a vintage Patriots team, it’s an impressive win nonetheless. It also sets up a high-stakes showdown with Seattle next week.

OFFENSE

For two straight weeks, Shanahan was dealing from the jump, pouncing on the Patriots on the very first drive and seamlessly adjusting the attack as the Patriots tried to mix things up with—among other things—flirtations with the same 6-1 that hounded our schematic cousins in LA two Super bowls ago. To state the obvious, the defensive adjustments didn’t work.

Forced Edges: We’ve talked at length about the need for the Niners to force the issue on the edge, finding ways to get their speed outside regardless of defensive alignments. While we spent the first weeks of this season employing tosses, pin-and-pull sweeps, and crack blocks out of condensed sets to get into the alley, the return of a healthy Deebo has seen two new developments over the course of the past two wins: touch passes and designed swing passes.

Considering the past two games have seen us rush for a combined 319 yards and four touchdowns—plus an additional 122 yards and one score on touch passes and designed swings—it’s safe to say the additions have worked.

MOAR gaps!: A quick primer on run gaps.

The letters in red (A, B, C, etc.) are the run gaps for the offense. The lines in yellow are the run fits or gap assignments for the defense. As you can see if you look at the right side of the formation, as each player is added there’s another gap to defend—theoretically ad infinitum as the only limit to the number of gaps is the number of players and the space of the field itself.

What Shanahan has done with the additions of touch passes and designed swings is add “phantom gaps” well outside the tackle box and developed methods of getting the ball into the hands of speedy skill guys with the longest handoff in the playbook—the swing pass.

Let’s take the touch passes for example:

Aiyuk (bottom of screen, his path in blue) is going in motion and getting the ball on a touch pass heading right. While the offensive line shows power left, Aiyuk will bolt to the alley behind a lead block by Juice and a belief that the linebackers in the box will be frozen enough by the action that Laken Tomlinson and Mike McGlinchey will be able to climb up to the second level and seal them inside.

Here’s the same play from the EZ view at the snap of the ball. As you can see the backfield action is very confusing. While the movement of the line—in particular the pulling guard—and the look in the backfield implies a same-side power left, which freezes the two flat-footed linebackers in the box. This allows Tomlinson and McGlinchey to climb up to the second level and seal both players inside, a block which would be incredibly difficult without the seconds-delay caused by the power action the opposite way.

If you notice, Chase Winovich—the Patriots’ top edge rusher—gets ole’d by McGlinchey. It’s easier to see in the video, but McGlinchey feigns a fire out punch like he’s trying to block him head up off the snap. As Winovich leans forward to engage, McGlinchey simply slips away and let’s him go, resulting in Winovich falling on his face and taking himself out of the play.

This edge defender will most often go unblocked in this kind of “naked” run, as the idea is that the run action away and the speed of the fly sweep motion will allow our ballcarrier to get past him before he can make a play. But in order to ensure that and prevent the defensive end from jumping the snap and blowing it up or stringing the run out further than we’d like, Shanahan has McGlinchey take a half-second to feign a run block punch, before slipping outside to climb to second level.

To me, this is the equivalent of creating a “phantom gap,” or another hole to run through that isn’t apparent pre-snap, outside of the line of scrimmage. The true “edge” of this play is in the alley, and Juice—who we’ll talk more about later—destroys his man to clear space for Aiyuk. With McGlinchey and Tomlinson both neutralizing their defenders, Aiyuk has a clear runway to use his speed, which he scampers down for a twenty yard gain.

But as teams start to respect the threat of this kind of touch pass/fly sweep action, the concept can become less effective—particularly because the motion acts as a potential indicator that it may be coming. To counteract that, Shanahan hands the ball off to the back while faking this look, timed up a hard count off the motion early in this game that caused an overeager Patriots player to jump offsides, and deployed the designed swing pass as an extra layer of misdirection.

Here is one of our designed swing passes, which—pre-snap—looks exactly like one of our touch passes, which looks exactly like one of or inside runs with fly motion. The offensive line is going to fake zone right, with Trent Williams working to seal on the second level, while Deebo goes in motion. In essence the Niners are faking touch pass to Deebo, faking handoff to the RB, and then throwing back to Deebo—the same guy we faked to first. This play not only relies on our misdirection but the fact that we’ve put lots of fly sweep looks on tape and it’s something that the Pats know they have to defend.

Here it is from the EZ angle again, but now from the defense’s perspective. As you can see, there’s a lot of confusion on what’s going on. At this point, Jimmy has snapped the ball right in time for it to be a touch pass, and is faking the handoff to the RB while the line blocks like it’s zone right.

Once again the linebackers are flat-footed, playing their inside run responsibilities first; once again, a would-be very difficult edge block from Trent Williams is made much easier by the linebackers’ hesitation; and once again, we’ve left the Patriots’ top edge rusher unblocked.

Not blocking the defense’s top defensive lineman is a staple of option football, which we’ll discuss a bit more later. The basic premise being, if someone is that hard to block, why not just not block him in the first place? Instead, you choose to put him in a bind where he has to make a decision and then you make him wrong.

In this case, Winovich sees the fly motion and stays wide, knowing that he’ll need to really outflank Deebo to stop him from getting the edge while in a full sprint. However, as the smoke clears…

Winovich realizes that Deebo doesn’t have the ball. Now, does he try to slide down the line and play cutback from an inside handoff? Or does he realize it’s a play action pass and rush Garoppolo. Unfortunately for him, the “best” play is the one that he is now totally outmatched and out of position to accomplish—guarding Deebo Samuel on the swing pass in space.

Meanwhile, our two guys out wide are playing optimal blocking angles and having the best blocker lead the way. Therefore, KB has cracked down on the slot while Kittle loops outside—a combo that can easily look like a slant-wheel route combination—and leads up on the cornerback.

Again, two me this is another “phantom gap,” only this time it’s two would-be gaps outside of the line of scrimmage. By the time Winovich realizes what’s going on it is far far too late. Deebo has out-flanked him to the sideline, has a caravan of three blockers, and can barrel his way down the field for a gain of 23 yards.

If that edge blocking reminds you of something, it’s probably because it’s the same exact look we often run on our crack lead tosses from under center.

This is one second in to what would eventually be an 80-yard Mostert TD on the first play of the game against the Jets. KB has motioned furthest outside but isn’t blocking the corner. Instead he’s pressing the corner vertical then blocking second level inside on the safety, leaving the corner to be blocked by our better blocker—in this case, Juice.

Both instances create a running back or a running back-in-receiver’s clothing (Deebo) running full speed in space on whoever the last DB is to get to the party. Even if said DB is a willing tackler, we’ll take that matchup nine times out of ten. That’s why I consider the touch passes and designed swings a run game extension into “phantom gaps.”

These schemes not only press the defense by forcing its secondary to play perfect “run fits” across the field while in space, but they also allow the Niners to pair a traditional handoff look with a “run equivalent.” It’s the older version of the now-constantly-mentioned run pass option (RPO), the run-run option. Aka, option football but updated for the modern NFL and without Jimmy G getting killed as a run threat.

The idea of adding gaps along the boundary through misdirection tied to “long handoffs” isn’t actually a new concept. In terms of its function and the stresses it puts on a defense, these plays are closest to something between a Wing T triple option and—somewhat ironically—the bubble screens and fly sweep handoffs popularized by shotgun spread-to-run rushing attacks such as Chip Kelly’s at Oregon.

So why do these touch passes and designed swings work and not suck like everything else from the Chip Kelly regime? First off, we don’t run them every third play—they’re a mix-up that Shanahan employs judiciously and from a variety of different personnel groups and formations. While teams sniffed out Kelly’s schemes in part cause he was so adamant about running few concepts out of even fewer looks, Shanahan’s offense is the polar opposite of that. Secondly, they utilize motion that creates misdirection, gives gap advantages on the front side, and allows the receiver to get a full head of steam as he reaches the line of scrimmage. Even if you see motion and are expecting a touch pass, the Niners could run inside on a handoff, throw the swing, or bend back the motion the other way on the snap of the ball. Third, we’re not pretending Jimmy G is gonna pull a keeper around the edge. Kelly’s concepts required at least the threat of a QB pull off an option handoff to open up the run and pass game. When teams realized they didn’t have to give a shit about a Blaine Gabbert keeper, they were able to shut it down. Shanahan’s offense threatens run, run equivalent, and play action pass—in short, no one’s scared of a Jimmy G keeper, but the idea of a quick pass to Deebo or Aiyuk or Kittle? That’s a problem. 

100% Fresh-Squeezed: Juice showed up prominently on the stat sheet (for a fullback) with 18 yards rushing, another 18 receiving, and a TD on the ground, but his flexibility was on greatest display when he wasn’t getting the ball.

We’ve talked ad nauseam about how much the Niners love 21 personnel because of—among other things—the rare two-way ability that both George Kittle and Juice possess as receivers and blockers, but this game was probably the best display of that to date. 

Juice did damage as a traditional fullback blocking in the box or moving outside to bowl over cornerbacks, he was a quick-hitting foil when the Patriots started committing too heavily towards the outside—like on his touchdown run—and showed off his unique skill set as a blocker and a receiver while split out wide.

When Juice lined-up or motioned out wide he could (a) pull a linebacker in man coverage out of the box to give us room to run inside, (b) crack block into the box with a bigger bodied guy to seal the edge, (c) block the heads-up cornerback where he clearly had an advantage, or (d) seal or crack the slot corner to protect initial pressure when running outside.

That last part was on display in our swing game, where Juice was the primary blocker on the two other swings we ran against the Patriots.

Like in our stretch game—where the offensive tackle hooking the edge is the most important block—Juice’s block in the slot ensures that we have an excellent space blocker on the one defender who could blow this play up if he reads and reacts quickly enough. While the swings are a wide extension of our edge running game, Juice operates as a wide extension of what an offensive tackle or tight end would be doing. He seals the edge on the play’s critical block.

Our offensive identity has been cemented: we are a run-heavy attack that threatens you on the edges in every way imaginable then—when you cheat outside to stop it—attacks the vacated space by pounding you between the tackles and popping short-to-intermediate alley-killers. If the game against the Rams was our offense’s initial form, this was our Wartortle-esque second evolution. While hopes ride on a foil Blastoise in the near future, Shanahan will have to pivot again with Deebo out for at least the next game.

DEFENSE

Another big win for Robert Saleh, whose scheme and ability to teach-up and prepare his players continues to shine despite a variety of missing pieces. I feel like I’m selling the work that he’s done short based on the small amount of room I’m giving to his unit, but this write-up is already far far too long as is. 

Back-to-forward defense: While our defense was built from front-to-back—prioritizing the defensive line as a means of disrupting passing games—our defensive resurgence in the past two weeks has relied heavily on our back seven. 

Despite our banged up secondary missing four of its five starters, we blanketed the Patriots receivers and held the Pats to under 150 passing yards despite little pressure until the waning minutes. That’s one thing against a noticeably-off Cam and a Patriots receiver corps whose number one threat was covered by our middle linebacker on occasion, but a week ago we were similarly stout against one of the most potent passing offenses in the league.

Film study, disguising looks, and the tremendous coverage ability of our linebackers have played a big part in that. So has the fact that both Goff and Newton showed up wildly inaccurate on game day. All that said, less of a pass rush means your team has to cover longer and win more battles at the catch point, and our defensive backs have done a good job of winning those matchups, deterring passes with excellent coverage, and—alongside our linebackers—tackling very well in the open field. Even in a year when we’re running at far less than full strength, all of the above bodes well for our chances both this season and in the future. 

Gap Discipline: While our defensive line hasn’t been getting home very often, they’ve done a tremendous job of maintaining gap discipline in the past two weeks. While that may not be the most important thing against someone like Jared Goff, the fact that the Niners held Cam Newton to a season-low 19 rushing yards on five carries is a major positive towards our ability to slow up running quarterbacks.

Even without someone like Bosa hand-slapping his way around the edge or DeFo knifing through the interior, excellent gap integrity can create a type of pressure on its own. A wall of defenders crunching down a quarterback’s personal space is the literal namesake for the term “collapsing the pocket” and that kind of team rush can do just enough to throw off a quarterbacks timing or accuracy—even if its unlikely to result in a sack. 

While 12 sacks on the season and a bottom 10 adjusted sack rate is a sharp decline from last year’s shitting-of-pants-inducing pass rush, we are not totally neutered in the pressure department. While not adjusted for competition, we still rank 5th in pressure percentage and 9th in QB knockdown percentage. That’s a far cry from where we were last year, but—like our recent showings in coverage—it’s a positive sign for the remainder of the year and a potentially great sign for future seasons with better health.

Sub Shoutouts: Speaking of a good sign for future seasons, Tarvarius Moore, in his first extended action since the beginning of last season, certainly didn’t seem to have any of the angle tackling issues that popped up in 2019. For Moore, the physicality and athleticism have never been in question, but he’s certainly improved his overall game as he was lights out on Sunday. To be a new starting safety with four career starts and not get targeted by the New England Patriots is an achievement in itself, and Moore was blanketing dudes down the field and crashing hard on shallow passes all day. A third-year player with one year left on his rookie deal, it’s always been a bit confusing as to what the Niners’ long-term plan is for Moore, but he certainly looks capable of a bigger role than as our dime back.

Along the defensive line, Kevin Givens continues to play really high quality ball and recorded his first career sack in the waning moments of the game. While it was on Stidham on the very last play of the game and against the Patriots’ backup guard, it’s nice to see him finally get rewarded for the good work he’s done in the trenches. He’s been looking very disruptive as of late and will have a major role moving forward, regardless of who else is healthy. 

As for Javon Kinlaw, there have been some rumblings that he’s been disappointing or that we need more from him as a pass rusher. While any bump in production would be nice, Kinlaw’s right where he was expected to be given the largely raw state in which he was drafted, the lack of a rookie minicamp or a preseason to hone his skills, and the fact that he was thrust into a bigger role than expected given injuries along the defensive line.

Defensive tackles rarely fire out of the gates as rookies. In the past five years, only two first-round tackles totaled over 3 sacks in their rookie seasons and both were highly polished and productive college players added to teams that were already loaded on the defensive line. It’ll take time, but Kinlaw has the size, strength, motor, and work ethic to project well, even if he doesn’t become a major impact player as a rookie.

With this win the Niners have cemented this much: they are—warts and all—a very good team. Are they a great team? Will they be able to beat one or both of the top two teams in the NFC within a four day span? Will the accumulation of injuries and ugly losses early in the season tank their chances at a playoff berth? Only time will tell, but the way this team has turned the corner in a season which easily could have been chalked up as an L due to circumstances outside of their control has been very impressive. And knocking off the NFL’s most dominant franchise of the 21st century in such overwhelming fashion is proof that we’re at least doing our best to position ourselves to take over their mantle.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 7 @ Patriots

The scariest part is after he sees no one downfield and tucks it [Steven Senne/Associated Press]

Opponent: New England Patriots (2-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/25
Location: Foxborough, MA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

Highlights from the Patriots look a lot different this year.

There’s no Tom Brady. No dink-and-dunk offense. No Donta Hightower or Patrick Chung. Oh, and also they don’t exist. The highlights that is. Cause there’s nothing attractive about the way these Patriots play football. And that—just like Bill Belichick’s wardrobe and the haircut of his Unabomber look-alike son—is all according to plan.

INJURY REPORT

Tests on Trent Williams lower leg showed nothing broken and that he avoided the dreaded high-ankle sprain. He sat out Wednesday but was limited at practice on Thursday. He’s more likely than not to play… Jaquiski Tartt has yet to be cleared to practice, but if there’s silver lining it’s that this matchup should play well into Marcell Harris’ strengths... Ben Garland and Raheem Mostert are out this week. Garland was placed on IR while Mostert—who was thought to be joining him—hasn’t yet been given that designation. Perhaps that means there’s hope for a recovery under three weeks? Or they’re just putting him on IR later this week... Jeff Wilson practiced limited this week. He’s probably likely to play given Mostert is out, Tevin Coleman won’t be back from injury by Sunday, and we haven’t added any backs... Dontae Johnson practiced in full as of Thursday… last we heard, neither Richard Sherman nor Dee Ford are expected back until, at earliest, after the bye (week 11)... after setbacks in recovery, Ronald Blair and Weston Richburg aren’t expected back until “around” week 13... no word yet on Jullian Taylor’s timetable. He tore his ACL around Thanksgiving last year so, given our luck, we can probably expect him back sometime in 2023.

NEW ADDITIONS

The plus side to our extensive injury list means there are plenty of interesting new roster additions :) [dies inside]

CB, Parnell Motley: Swooped off waivers after the Brian Allen fiasco that shall never be talked about again, Motley was a (mostly) three-year starter at Oklahoma, totaling 39 pass deflections, 6 forced fumbles, and 6 picks in his time in Norman. An UDFA this year, he played only special teams in two appearances for the Bucs but defensively projects as a developmental outside press corner. He has the productivity, functional length and athleticism, and physicality to develop into a potential contributor down the line, but he’ll have to clean up a whole lot of technique and holding issues for that to happen. He’s a stash for the future. In the present, he’s a special teamer. Or maybe we lose all our corners again and he starts next week. Hard to say.

DE, Jordan Willis: In an effort to somehow get worse than they already are, the Jets traded us Jordan Willis and a 2021 7th-round pick for a 2022 6th-round pick earlier this week. Drafted by the Bengals in the third round in 2017, Willis was quickly passed by fourth-rounder Carl Lawson and 2018 draftee Sam Hubbard. Dropped when the Zac Taylor regime took over, he’s been with the Jets ever since. Willis has battled injuries during his four-year career and has as many sacks (3) as he does teams that he’s played for, but he has intriguing present and future value considering the price tag.

Willis totaled 26 sacks in college and was the 2016 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording 11.5 as a senior at Kansas State. At 6-4 275 pounds he obliterated the combine, recording a 4.53 forty, 39-inch vertical, and 6.85 three-cone drill—athletic numbers that were only surpassed on the defensive line by current DPOTY candidate Myles Garrett. Despite the tantalizing numbers, a quick look at his tape makes me believe that he tests faster than he plays and that he lacks the fluidity and bend to ever run the corner as a speed rusher. But that doesn’t mean he can’t present value. In two of his four seasons, on over 500 defensive snaps, he’s graded out in the 70’s in PFF with solid two-way ability. Maybe he won’t beat anyone off the edge but there’s a role for guys who can play the run and generate the occasional pressure with power and inside moves. The Niners are banking that a change of scenery, under Kris Kocurek, on a team that doesn’t suck ass for the first time in his career will better maximize Willis’ ability. 

At best, Willis becomes a second-line guy for the future. At worst, he washes out from the team with his biggest impact being the restructuring of Laken Tomlinson’s contract that opened up the cap space to sign him. But if Willis can land somewhere in the middle and give us solid Dion Jordan-level snaps with our second group, that would give us a major boost to the pass rush. Not because of anything he’d necessarily be providing himself but because it would allow us to slide Arik Armstead inside on passing downs where he feasted (10 sacks) last year. 

TRADE DEADLINE STRATS

GET EXCITED! It’s the minutiae of business and finances in the NFL time. (ham horn)

At 3-3 and with two weeks left before the November 3rd trade deadline, our games against the Patriots and Seahawks will do a lot towards determining if our contention status. If we’re 5-3 and looking at Seahawks and Rams teams with two losses who we hold a tiebreaker over, we’re clearly back in contention. If we’re 3-5 and a solid four or five games behind Seattle then that’s another story.

Either way, I don’t really see us being big movers at the trade deadline, at least not along the lines of the big swing trades that people who follow the NBA too closely keep proposing (Alex Mack on an expensive expiring contract? OBJ still somehow? Sam D’Arnold for a FIRST ROUND PICK???).

Last year when we pulled the trigger on Emmanuel Sanders we were 7-0 and with a gaping hole at wide receiver. In retrospect it would have been irresponsible NOT to have gone after a wideout. We were a clear Super Bowl favorite with a single missing piece, and we were entering an off-season where we had very few key players on expiring contracts. Neither of those are the case now.

While we do have some major roster holes at the moment, those are due to injury, and the guys who are hurt are proven commodities largely locked up beyond this year. Last year, adding Sanders gave a jolt to a woefully undermanned receiving corps and helped develop Deebo and KB tremendously, but there was always the chance of retaining Sanders after the season—especially if the young guys hadn’t developed. This year, throwing out draft capital for a guy on an expiring contract like Ryan Kerrigan—who would be a guaranteed one-year rental—makes considerably more sense for someone like the Seahawks—who straight up lack edge rushers on their roster—than for us. Hedging the future for a season when we’re guaranteed to be missing major pieces—whether at 5-3 or 3-5—makes little sense.

Conversely, I wouldn’t expect a fire sale either. In general, dumping young talent when you’re bad is actually a bad idea in the NFL. Even if you don’t account for injuries or special teams, you’re regularly playing 30+ guys each week. You need depth, and if you’re the guy expected to make that turnaround, then you’d better start developing the back end of your roster with guys who can ball. Regardless, we’re not a bad team nor is our roster in bad shape. So there’s no fire sale incoming.

Lastly, we are absolutely broke. We couldn’t take on a big contract even if we wanted to and why oh why would we want to as we’re entering a COVID-affected cap year with contracts up on tons of our own free agents? As mentioned above, Laken Tomlinson had to restructure his contract in order to give us the cap space needed to trade for Jordan Willis… and Jordan Willis costs less than $600k against the cap. We are eating-ramen-in-sweatpants-in-college-and-then-being-surprised-when-that-turns-off-women-and-no-I-didn’t-just-fart-that’s-just-the-general-smell-of-my-existence poor. But didn’t we just restructure Dee Ford’s contract before the season to open up a ton of cap space? How do we now only have—per Spotrac—$4.5M left under the 2020 cap?

As is the case for most of our issues this year, this problem stems from injuries. Every NFL team has a maximum of 53 players on their active roster but only 46 dress for any given game. That gives you some leeway if someone is hurt as they can be made inactive. However, when you have more than that number hurt or you know someone will be out for a number of weeks, you often put them on injured reserve. Players on the IR don’t count as taking up a roster spot, so you put them there to be able to add a replacement. That will either be a player picked up off waivers (which costs money) or signed off the street (which costs money) or a practice squad promotion (which also costs money). Every time you promote a player from the practice squad to the active roster their pay rate bumps up from their practice squad rate to their NFL minimum (based on their number of accrued seasons). Assuming that player is on the practice squad minimum (they could be getting paid more), that would mean their salary increases by greater than four times.

We currently have—not including Mostert, who could go on IR later this week—a league-leading 14 players and approximately one quarter of our entire salary cap ($53M) stuck on injured reserve—plus an additional $6M on the PUP list. That’s a lot of roster spots to fill and that doesn’t even include the promotions for the multiple games missed by Jimmy G, Kittle, Mostert, Moseley, etc. etc. etc. Basically, our injury issues have been so severe that we’re paying for 15-20 additional players at any given time. While those players are on cheap contracts, the sheer number adds up. Thus, we are broke :(

If there’s any moves coming in the future, I’d expect them to be the kind of mini-transactions we saw with Jordan Willis. Deals that add back-end roster depth with a potential to help in the future and that prioritize ADDING 2021 picks. With the huge number of free agents we have up to bat this off-season, the expectation should be that we net a decent number of compensatory picks due to roster turnover—picks that won’t get realized until the 2022 draft. So, due to impending roster turnover, the year delay of likely comp picks, and the fact that we had FIVE TOTAL PICKS in last year’s draft, the Niners brass will likely prioritize adding picks in 2021.

Naturally, one way to add picks is to be sellers. There’s a chance that someone on an expiring contract could get shipped off to a contender to accelerate their comp pick return, but there’s not a lot of likely candidates. Ahkello Witherspoon gets floated every time anyone talks about Niners trades but are we in the position to trade cornerbacks right now? Also, it’s not without question that Witherspoon—given the impending turnover at the position and the Niners’ prioritization of familiarity within their system—is actually re-signed in the off-season to a cheap short-term deal (ala Jimmie Ward 2019). Perhaps Dante Pettis, who has been inactive for multiple games this year and still has two seasons left on a rookie deal. But what’s the market for a guy who hasn’t played in practically a year? If you get into veterans on expiring deals you could float the idea of Richard Sherman, as his ten years in the league means he could net us only a fifth-round comp pick, but he’s a captain who’s also on IR. Maybe K’Waun, one of the better nickel corners in the league? But he’s currently on a massive deal of a contract, would probably be a cheaper re-sign than someone like Sherm, and is also… on IR.

Again, this is purely conjecture, and the Niners’ salary cap situation, .500 record, and commitment to maintaining locker room chemistry likely means that if there are any other moves on the horizon, they’re more like Jordan Willis-level ones—with the 2021 draft and the 2021 season in mind.

OFFENSE

Gimme five if half of your season’s yardage was from a single game [Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire]

November 3, 2019 marked a monumental shift for two AFC Powers. For the upstart Ravens, their shellacking of the then 8-0 Patriots cemented themselves as a legitimate contender. While the Patriots would only win one more game by more than a single score before getting ousted in the Wild Card round and saying goodbye to their future Hall of Fame quarterback. But this wasn’t a changing of the guard so much as a wake-up call for Bill Belichick. He saw what John Harbaugh did in Baltimore and realized that it was indeed still possible to be a supremely run-heavy team in 2020, but only if you had a running threat at quarterback. 

In this year’s draft the Patriots selected zero receivers, two tight ends, two run-blocking offensive linemen, and signed former MVP Cam Newton off the street. In came the zone read and inverted veer concepts that you naturally add to your playbook when you have a 6-5 245-pound battering ram at quarterback. While the offense doesn’t rely as heavily on those option concepts as the Ravens, adding the threat of the QB run has opened up the rest of their rushing game.

Cam’s 11.5 carries per game—combined with tons of two-running back sets, reverses, and fly sweeps to anyone and everyone who could ever threaten to hit the edge—makes for a ground game that rides on the power of its offensive line and the incredible diversity of its rushing schemes. They can hit you with a fly sweep off a zone look, a quick pitch off motion away, a counter trey out of double tight, then an inverted veer keeper with a leading fullback all on the same drive. This makes for a considerably less explosive and exciting offense than Baltimore’s, but provides many of its other benefits. The power run game limits negative yardage and makes the Patriots more dangerous and more willing to go for it on fourth-and-short, the constant use of play action makes for much easier to read defenses and inflates passing statistics with easy completions, and that same play action means the offensive line can maul in the run game and rarely has to engage in drop back pass protection—where potential weak spots could be exposed. That’s the theory at least.

Through the air they’ve discarded much of the short-to-intermediate pinpoint timing routes that Brady thrived on for the better part of a decade in lieu of different high percentage throws. They still run their “long handoff” equivalent screens and work levels concepts over the middle off the field, but focus more on passing through play action—particularly on the concepts Cam is most comfortable with: floods, reading deep ball-to-shallow crossers, and deep outs and crossers that accent his arm strength while mitigating his quick recognition skills and accuracy.

Cam’s completion percentage is at an all-time high, but aside from the wild end to the Seahawks game (against one of the worst passing defenses in the league), he is still—as he’s been for years—an inaccurate passer who forces the ball into bad spots too often. He hasn’t made major strides since leaving the Panthers. The difference now is that the Patriots have done a good job of shaping the offense around the threat of his legs, making the passing game filled with concepts he’s comfortable with, and minimizing the load he needs to carry. Through four starts, Cam’s only thrown the ball more than 28 times once and completed more than 17 passes just as many times. As a team, they’ve only thrown for greater than 172 yards once. This is a low-volume, below average-efficiency passing attack.

Their wideout talent is middling at best—although this would have been a really nice game to have K’Waun Williams manning the slot. They gain very little separation and—with the exception of 2019 first-rounder N’Keal Harry—have little size as well. This is still the roster of tons of slot receivers that Brady would throw to on pivot routes and shallows, with Julian Edelman being the alpha dog and the closest thing to a No.1 receiver. He’s not to be underestimated and can pick you apart in the middle of the field, but—despite what everyone who has worn an Antoine Walker jersey out in public in the past ten years says—he’s no otherworldly talent. In the passing game, they’ll throw to their backs just as often as their wideouts and honestly those backs are probably just as dangerous. As long as we tackle well, we should have the speed on the second level to keep their YAC yards to a minimum.

This is an offense that’s ranked 27th in passing DVOA and 3rd in rushing DVOA. The scariest part of their passing game is Cam Newton scrambling. They’ll throw plenty of short passes to the flats to chip away at our Cover 3 and Quarters coverages, but they don’t have the personnel to kill us with that. The focus should be on stopping the run. With the sheer quantity of looks they have in the run game, the Patriots could find sporadic success outside, but I don’t think this team has the speed to regularly get to the edge against our defense. More likely, the crux of this matchup lies in stopping the Patriots’ QB option and interior run game. They’ve got a lot of size on the interior and run 21 personnel third-most in the league to get extra blockers and gaps with just enough misdirection to slow up reads on the second level. DJ Jones, Javon Kinlaw, and Kevin Givens will be important—and our linebackers will need to commit to their reads and quick trigger against the run. If our interior run defense looks more like it did the first four weeks and less like it did against the Rams, we’ll be in good shape defensively.

DEFENSE

A few Pro Bowls shy of a Head & Shoulders endorsement [Getty Images]

On defense, the Patriots aren’t nearly what they were a year ago but they’re still a Bill Belichick coached side that will play sound football and not beat themselves with mistakes. While the advanced stats paint a picture of an average unit, this is a bend-don’t-break defense that is opportunistic in creating turnovers. It—like the rest of this team—does a good job of mitigating risk and keeping the Patriots within striking distance regardless of opponent. 

The Pats run a man coverage-heavy, multiple 3-4 that stresses versatility in their front seven so that they can be flexible in shaping their front based on their opponent. While COVID opt-outs from Donta Hightower and Patrick Chung have sapped some name recognition from this defense, they still have a number of plus performers and—just as importantly—few genuine weak spots. Everyone, even their lower-end roster types, at least does their job. Second-year edge/linebacker Chase Winovich has emerged as their go-to pass rusher while they get the majority of their other pressure off of schemed up fronts similar to the ones we saw—and were depressingly effective against us—two weeks ago versus Miami. Last year’s DPOTY Stephon Gilmore has had a down year but is still a top tier corner, while JC Jackson opposite him has emerged as a potential star. Devin McCourty brings his typical strong veteran play to free safety. 

Through Belichick’s decades-long reign of terror, the Patriots defense has been known for presenting wildly differing looks from week-to-week, with schemes made specifically to take away what you do best. But more accurately, they want to take away whatever you rely on most. They effectively clamped down the Raiders and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks by using a variety of coverages and alignment bluffs to limit their high-volume star tight ends from being the offense’s primary chain-mover. I’d expect the same sort of looks on George Kittle, as well as wide edges and a variety of fronts that are made to stop our stretch game. 

In guarding Kittle, the Patriots may chip with their edges or linebackers but they’ll use their rotating crop of safeties as their primary coverage guys. Kittle presents an athleticism and speed advantage that neither Waller nor Kelce possess, but it will be tough sledding with the amount of shit they’re gonna throw at him. While Kittle always needs to be a big part of our gameplan, it would be smart if we have counterattacks set up with our other playmakers. Bunch formations, motions, and condensed sets are always on the docket against man coverage and could provide an added bonus in opening up some edge space for our running game as well. 

Against our run game the Patriots will rely on power, scheme, and alignment to offset their lack of speed. They are not a fast defense. Regardless of the fronts they show us, we should push the issue outside and find ways—whether it’s with tosses, condensed sets with crack blocks, and/or reverses—to get our speed advantage out on the edges. Using motion and alignment to clear out the edges for sweeps and reverses should also be in play given the Patriots’ commitment to man coverage. This strategy would have been way cooler with the unreal speed of Mostert in the lineup, but it should remain the game plan nonetheless. Expect Deebo Samuel to get his name called in the running game again this week and every week moving forward.

This game could be an absolute slog. This is the weakest Patriots teams in years, but it’s still the Patriots—they thrive on your mistakes and we’ve had a lot of those to date. It’s also worth noting that their losses have been to the Seahawks in a shootout, the Chiefs while starting Brian Hoyer, and to the Broncos after a week where they had minimal in-person practice due to COVID. This is a team that’s better than its 2-3 record. If we minimize mental errors and turnovers we matchup well, but we have to do that for all four quarters. Otherwise this is a Pats team that thrives on hanging around into the fourth and pulling out opportunistic victories.

Go Niners 👍🏈