Saints 27, Niners 13
November 17, 2013: a day that will live in 49er fan annoyance.
Time is a flat circle.
Crucial down, Saints driving, Niners sack puts them deep behind the sticks, but then... Drew Brees looks sad. And we already know what’s going to happen next. We’ve seen it in our minds, repeated a thousand times like we’re one of those bald people lying in milk in Minority Report. We are clairvoyant, if only for a single, fleeting second.
Yes, it’s a bummer that Brees was hurt on this play. No, that doesn’t mean it should have been a penalty, and any retroactive takes that follow in that vein adhere to at least a half dozen logical fallacies. Injury = penalty doesn’t follow with torn ACLs or hamstring pulls, nor should it and arguing that an injury that was diagnosed 24 hours after the game means a penalty in the second quarter was correct is like arguing that it was good that you fell asleep at the wheel and hit that old Dodge Dart off the road because its driver happened to be wanted for robbing a bank.
Seven years ago, Ahmad Brooks’ sack of Drew Brees not only kept the Saints from scoring but forced a fumble that Patrick Willis would recover. The late flag that erased that from existence set up the Saints for victory and set us up to lose the tiebreak in the NFC West and play the NFC Championship game at Century Link rather than Candlestick. If there’s any solace to be had in Sunday’s fit of deja vu it’s that Kentavius Street’s sack—while as clean as could be—was only one of a series of plays that foiled our chances at victory.
Yes, in 2020, losing by a wide enough margin that a single bad call doesn’t infuriate you is as close as you’re getting to a silver lining.
OFFENSE
For the third time this season we actually out-gained our opponent in offensive yardage, only to fall short on the scoreboard. In similar fashion to our loss to the Eagles, the point differential was largely caused by turnovers undoing any chance we had at creating and sustaining momentum.
While we fired out of the gates with a near-perfect script and efficient, focused play on both offense and defense, our massive game flow advantage only lasted through the first quarter. After that, our inability to run the ball (2.0 ypc on the day) and a steady stream of turnovers kept our offense from regaining any type of rhythm and that—combined with our special teams miscues—hung our defense out to dry.
Everyone hates Nickelback: Any defense we face is going to commit to stopping the outside run first and foremost, otherwise it’s hard to have a chance against us. That often leads to unique fronts that haven’t been shown on film, DL alignments made to prevent reach blocks or minimize interior double teams, super-wide edge players whose entire job is to not get hooked, and 5 or more defenders on the line of scrimmage.
The Saints basically did all of the things above, but they added a specific wrinkle that made their defensive front even more difficult to run against. Instead of rolling a linebacker down or adding an extra lineman to give them five defenders on the LOS, the Saints used their nickel corner (Gardner-Johnson) as their edge defender and would typically hide that fact up until the snap.
formation key (condensed split to TE) in blue; defensive adjustment in red
The Saints showed this front often throughout the game against run-friendly formations and clearly had checks built into their play-calls to shift into this look whenever (A) we showed condensed receiver splits—an alignment that we love to run towards because it allows our receivers to block down into the box—or (B) we sent a receiver in fly sweep motion TO the nickel—another sign of a likely run.
They even showed this look on the first play of the game:
Two-high look rolls safety down to run strength to create 8 man box
When they saw that wing TE and condensed wideout out of 21 personnel, they slid their nickel far enough inside the receiver to make for a terrible blocking angle then rolled the high safety down into the box to replace their pass responsibility and create an extra body against the run.
Ballcarrier in yellow; Jet is screwed before the play even begins
By using an edge defender who was too fast and aligned too wide for any blocker to successfully reach, the Saints were able to immediately turn runs back inside or blow them up at the point of attack.
They’d do this when we’d motion down into a condensed set:
Motion from a spread set to condensed wideout keys adjustment
Penetration causes Hasty to cut upfield early, while roll-down safety gets clean path to ball carrier
Or when we’d motion across the formation to create a condensed set on the opposite side:
Alignment of nickel (wide and at LOS) + assignment (penetrate into backfield) makes for an impossible block
Unsurprisingly, reverses and touch passes were the hardest play to get going, as we were outflanked on the edges before we even got started.
Nickel is told to get penetration so can’t be fooled by reverse or kicked out by pulling lineman
We’ve talked a bit about how some of the Niners’ misdirection run concepts and the way they all meld together resemble elements from both a spread option attack and throwback Wing T football. Thus, it seems fitting that the Saints adjusted to our run game with a hybrid of elements that are often used against spread and Wing T teams.
In essence, the Saints were treating the condensed receiver as a blocker and extending the LOS an extra gap with their nickel corner. Tons of college teams use nickel blitzes against spread option attacks as it messes up the read keys of the quarterback. Against us, the Saints weren’t worried about a Mullens zone read keeper as much as they were the natural cutback of our zone and stretch plays and the reverses, sweeps, bootlegs, and play actions going the other way. By shooting into the backfield, CGJ can collapse down against the run unblocked or pressure Mullens enough that there’s no time for a crosser or deep shot to develop via play action.
On the flip side, Wing T offenses have always had to deal with defenses adjusting to motion, which is why many such as De La Salle employ very quick-hitting motions that get the snap off before defenses can adjust. In this case, the Saints were setting an extra edge defender wide of the blockers who could blow up any fly sweep or reverse, while rolling a backside safety down into the box to give the defense appropriate numbers to fill against a more traditional run such as zone or stretch.
We saw a similar look when we were in trips:
Nickel is basically just here to create havoc at the LOS regardless of run or pass
Here, the nickel corner is head-up and pressing the front man in the bunch formation, but isn’t in man. His eyes are inside, and his goal is to jam the wideout so he can’t block down into the box on a crack block—which allows Demario Davis to flow to the ball unhindered—and knock the receiver off his route in case it is a pass—giving the DBs behind him the chance to mark up the right guys in coverage.
clusterfuck initiated
In this case, CGJ knifes inside of Bourne’s block, forcing McKinnon to bounce when he didn’t want to and funneling him into the unblocked hands of their crashing cornerback.
But these blitzes weren’t only effective in stuffing the run game:
Bourne, at the bottom of the screen, is literally pointing out the nickel blitz
In the passing game, these nickel blitzes presented problems because: (A) a nickel blitz is often on the quarterback to recognize pre-snap so that he can shift protection or find his hot routes, and Mullens just isn’t seeing them consistently; and (B) neither McKinnon, Hasty, nor Walter are very good in pass protection. McKinnon especially—due mostly to his abundance of snaps in this game—really struggled, allowing at least two sacks entirely on his own and a handful of other pressures.
Here, nickel is accounted for schematically but Jet didn’t step up into the pocket in pass pro
So how do you beat these loaded boxes with extended edge nickel blitzes? In the run game, you’d want to treat that nickel as an extra defensive lineman. If it’s a run, it doesn’t matter if he’s dropping or coming off the edge, you just need to account for him. Sicking Juice on him on kick-outs could have theoretically given us a matchup we liked in the run game. Same-side sweep action with a cutback intended may have had some legs if we were winning more on the inside.
Getting into formations that themselves have a lot of gaps, like a tight end on the LOS and Juice in a wing, is another way to make that edge pressure less impactful by simply creating more gaps. Conversely, you can open up into more 11 personnel sets as a way to deter that kind of edge pressure and minimize its impact—which we did in the second half—but with Dwelley at tight end instead of Kittle, that doesn’t really give us the run game matchups we’d prefer. Gap running should be on the table as well, but I assume Shanahan leaned away from that in part because—as stated before—it relies a bit more on our inside guys to win blocks and our guards at least weren’t doing that on Sunday.
The best way to combat this look is simply to pass. In particular, you pass underneath. That slot corner may be coming off the edge but he’s also lining up pretending to be in coverage and then vacating all pass responsibility. Just like any other blitz, that opens up space for quick completions underneath and makes dropping defenders cover more ground with less bodies. While a nickel blitz can be dialed up so wide that the blitzer can only be picked up by a running back, it’s inherently more risky on the coverage end because his abandoned pass responsibility is tougher than that of a linebacker’s (hence why an extra DB is on the field in the first place) and—if hiding the blitz—the defender taking over his coverage likely starts the snap out of position and immediately must make up ground.
The signs were actually there of us taking advantage of these blitzes by doing just that—attacking the Saints in underneath holes where the blitzer vacated. For instance, if you look at the sack from before and focus on a different part of the play…
This is as open as you can get
You can see how Shanahan was dialing up dig routes to take advantage of the vacated space. If pass pro had held up this was a completion of a bare minimum of 15 yards.
Here’s another inside-breaking route that was actually completed to Jordan Reed:
motion signals defensive check
Our use of motion activates the nickel corner blitz and rolls the high safety down to replace his coverage responsibility. Knowing that this means the linebackers will be widening out in a hurry and that the single-high safety will surely be pulled by the vertical route out of the slot, this makes Jordan Reed open for a shallow dig or square-in on the backside.
Reed wide open for square-in; this one would be completed
On the first drive of the second half, Shanahan dialed up more spread out sets and started throwing short passes outside the hashes to counteract how the Saints were crowding the box. It got us down into field goal range, but a holding call, an inaccurate pass on a shoot route, and then Mullens’ interception squashed that drive.
This was an excellent defensive game plan from Saints’ DC Dennis Allen, and I would assume we’ll see plenty more nickel blitzes after the success that both the Seahawks and the Saints have had in employing them. Shanahan will have to come in with more early checks against this kind of look—perhaps with more quick passing towards the sideline, inside screens, and gap-running concepts—but I wouldn’t worry about it being some kind of gamebreaking defense against us. This is far from the case of a Rams’ 6-1 defense kryptonite situation.
That’s because in theory, we’re actually built quite well to counteract this strategy when we’re healthy. After all, our passing game strength is in completing underneath passes and getting yards after the catch—thus attacking the very areas that nickel blitzes leave open in coverage. Consider me skeptical that the Saints would be as comfortable dialing up a six man blitz and a soft coverage shell with Deebo and Kittle catching quick outs, hitches, and fast screens in space against a single corner. Or allowing single-high coverage on Kittle rumbling down the seam. Or loving the idea of sending a slot blitz that vacates alley support against a Deebo slant.
Getting some guys back and getting our interior line in order—although Brunskill did play well—will help solve a lot of the problems that this defense presented.
Take off the kid gloves? Or put on even thicker, more kid-friendly gloves on top of the gloves that we’re already wearing? There have been complaints throughout the year that Shanahan needs to open up and throw the ball more when the Niners run game isn’t working. In a bubble, I totally understand that thinking. When the run game isn’t working and everyone’s keying it, you gotta pass to open it up. In theory. But did anyone leave this game thinking that we would have done much better if Mullens threw the ball 50 times instead of 38? I, for one, did not.
People like to state the positive correlation between first down yardage and offensive success as a reason that the Niners should be throwing more on first down. However, that’s making quite the assumption that we’re getting good yardage on that throw because second & 10 is typically the worst time to run, and if we’re coming out every drive with three Mullens passes we’re not only getting away from our offensive identity and eliminating play action concepts from our playbook, but we’re gonna see some real ugly offensive showings.
I absolutely want this offense to open up more, throw the ball down the field, and be able to win with via the run or the pass. Eventually. But simply throwing more doesn’t mean moving the ball better. For example, the top five teams in the league in terms of first down throwing percentage are (in order) the Bills, Bears, Texans, Racial Slurs, and Eagles. Aka, four dumpster fires and the Bills. Meanwhile, eight of the top ten offenses in terms of adjusted DVOA are in the bottom half in terms of passing rate on first down and five are in the bottom ten.
In the simplest of terms, let’s worry about passing well before we worry about passing more.
The Mullens Meter. A resounding “meh” for this week. Mullens showed the ability to (mostly) operate when he was kept comfortable and didn’t have to work too deep down his progressions. Where he got into trouble was when he’d lock onto his primary read on intermediate routes—allowing underneath defenders and safeties to read his eyes—and when his brain tried to write checks that his arm couldn’t cash. This included the back shoulder wheel to Aiyuk, which was thrown far too inside for the rookie wideout to make a play on it, and the end zone interception off a fade route that had the same issue.
The physical limitations are starting to show a bit, including nine passes deflected—many at the line of scrimmage—but Mullens at least showed some promise in the waning minutes of the game, where he was flushed out of the pocket and completed two off-script throws down the field. He’ll have the bye week—and (hopefully) an injection of healthy offensive talent—to build upon as he auditions for a backup role either with us or someone else in the NFL. He’s never going to have incredible arm talent or stature, but if he can improve between the ears—and start recognizing nickel blitzes—he could still have a strong month of play before Jimmy G comes back.
To his credit, Mullens is clearly a tough dude. For reference, here are his two roughing the passer calls versus Brees’:
Yeaaaaaah, let’s just say “protecting the quarterback” has a variable definition.
“Special” Teams. Far from a banner day from our special teams unit, which—other than Robbie Gould—has had some suspect performances this year. Two muffed punt returns, a punt that was nearly blocked, and a kickoff that was returned 75 yards when Jimmie Ward and Wishnowsky ran into one another made for quite the eventful day in specials (the Saints muffed two punts themselves, but recovered one of them).
Richard Hightower is widely known as one of the better special teams coordinators in the league, so the performances this year have been disappointing to say the least. Although to be fair, it’s hard to say how much of this is on him versus the rotating door of practice squadders and waiver-wire pickups who now populate his units. He’s lost his top gunners in Raheem Mostert, Emmanuel Moseley, and Tarvarius Moore to major snaps on offense or defense while special teams ace Mark Nzeocha has been out since early in the season. The injury wave spares no one, but with special teams often filled with the backend of the roster to begin with, it’s been a full-on rotating door this season.
Air Aiyuk. We may not have the capability to fully harness him at the moment, but Aiyuk is really coming along nicely. While usually guarded by the Saints’ top corner, Aiyuk had a career-high 14 targets while recording 7 grabs for 75 yards and a score. While that may not seem like amazing efficiency, he was getting open early underneath and deep down the field and has made serious strides this year—having now totaled 6-plus catches and 75-plus yards for the third game in a row.
While I’d like to see him improve his ability to play through mid-route contact and use his length to high-point jump balls, he’s quickly growing into a true three-level threat, showing vertical ability and that early separation that made Emmo so valuable for us last year.
DEFENSE
Despite the score, this was actually one of our best defensive performances of the year. Saleh came in with a very strong game plan and some interesting personnel changes (which we’ll talk about later) as we limited the Saints to 123 yards passing. Sure, Drew Brees missed the second half, but our defense’s ability to come out firing and make quarterbacks look confused and off-target to start games is a truly impressive feat that—save the Packers game—has been one of the few consistent trademarks of what has been an up-and-down season.
The Saints were 2-of-12 on third downs. Their 237 yards of offense made for their worst offensive output since a 10-13 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day in 2018. While the team doesn’t have the record nor the defense the flash of last year, Robert Saleh has certainly improved his chances at being named a head coach sooner rather than later.
50% is always greater than 0%. Going in we’d said we had to stop Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Well, we absolutely accomplished half of that game plan, holding Thomas to 2 catches for 27 yards on 7 targets. Kamara… not so much.
I saw a stat that we missed 15 tackles in this game, which is a major bummer because we’d improved our open-field tackling so much this season, but I’d say at least a dozen of those missed tackles were from Kamara. To our credit, we swarmed him when he had the ball and absolutely stuffed him in the running game. While he had three total touchdowns, he finished the game with 8 carries for 15 yards on the ground. Ultimately, it was his 7 grabs for 83 yards (34 coming on a single screen) that really powered this offense and kept the chains moving when pretty much no one else was stepping up.
The Middle-Out Approach. Our outside corners were rarely targeted in this one, with the Saints choosing instead to work their matchups on the inside. Jamar Taylor, with regular safety help over top, was as invisible as we wanted him to be given his frequent matchups on Michael Thomas, while Greenlaw and Warner didn’t have their best games.
Despite being outflanked on Kamara’s touchdown catch off the Brees fumble, Warner was his typical blanket-like self in pass coverage, but wasn’t as sure as he’s been as a tackler on Sunday. Greenlaw was mostly victim of circumstance. When you’re the Saints and you’re trying to get Kamara the ball on a linebacker and one of those linebackers is maybe the only guy in the league who might be able to cover him, you’re obviously gonna target the other dude. Greenlaw was that dude this week.
The Saints found ways of lining up Kamara—or even Michael Thomas for one completion—on Greenlaw in man coverage and while Greenlaw has got speed, he doesn’t have go-over-two-picks-on-a-shoot-route-against-Kamara kind of speed. To his credit, no one does. To be clear, this game didn’t change my opinion of Greenlaw at all. It was always gonna be a tough matchup.
MOAR Moore. Saleh’s biggest surprise in this game was how he shuffled things up on the back-end, giving Tarvarius Moore the nod at strong safety to match-up with the Saints’ passing attack and speed. Moore, in his second start of the year, played very well.
When asked a week ago if the Niners should start Moore opposite Ward with Tartt sidelined, Shanahan had mentioned that Moore doesn’t have the ideal body type for a lot of snaps in the box. In this matchup at least, Moore stayed largely at deep safety, where his movement skills and speed really pop on tape. Even in bad special teams plays you can see those athletic talents, as he surely saves a touchdown on this kickoff return.
I don’t know nearly enough about the Niners’ safety responsibilities to know if that meant Moore was actually playing more free safety and Ward more strong safety, or if it was simply a circumstance of the matchup (perhaps, caused by the Saints expecting Harris deep instead?), but the Ward/Moore combo was lights out all game.
However, Marcell Harris was far from left out in the cold in all this. When the Niners were in their base sets, Harris started at Sam linebacker in lieu of Azeez Al-Shair, giving the Niners a bit more coverage ability while risking a smaller player in the box against the Saints run game. Al-Shair has often been a target in coverage, and these two personnel moves likely took away a lot of what the Saints were planning to do in the passing game.
While I wouldn’t go so far as to say this is necessarily the norm moving forward, this gives the Niners an excellent set of options. If they’re keying a passing team (such as the Bills in week 13 for instance), this grouping makes a ton of sense, but if they’re playing a run-dominant team like the Ravens—who Harris was outstanding against—perhaps they want more size at linebacker and strong safety. Either way, I’ve long been interested in what the Niners’ long-term plan has been for Moore, who is often pointed out as their best defensive player who isn’t starting. So consider me fully onboard with giving him the lion’s share of safety reps so we can see what he’s got.
Popping Pass Rush Cherries. Two players along our defensive line registered their first career sacks in this game. Well, technically only one because Kentavius Street’s was wiped out by penalty, but he’s getting a shoutout regardless.
I don’t know what the future holds for Kentavius Street. He hasn’t made much of an impact this year despite a healthy number of snaps due to injuries along the DL. He’s clearly fourth in the pecking order along the interior, with DJ, Kinlaw, and Givens all cemented there. Perhaps he never fully pans out and is getting replaced by practice-squadder Darrion Daniels next year? Or perhaps his blow-by sack, in which he flashed the power and explosiveness that led the Niners to drafting him in the first place, is a sign of things to come? Flashes that the coaching staff had seen enough of that they were willing to bet on him rather than Jullian Taylor? Regardless, congrats to Street. Hopefully he registers another sack soon and that this time it will count.
Meanwhile, Javon Kinlaw had a performance that likely has a number of more anxious Niners fans breathing sighs of relief. The hustle had been there, he’d been getting close, but finally Kinlaw broke through with a handful of splash plays on Sunday, including a third down stop, a screen pass disruption, and a box score that read 3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits. There’s still a ton of polish, consistency, and growth needed in his game, but that’s a nice performance for the rookie to go into the bye with.
While we’re on the d-line, Kerry Hyder continues to be out here working. With 5.5 sacks through 10 games, he leads the team, and is on pace to surpass his career-high of 8 in a season. As I state every week, would really love for him to be back next year.
Also worth noting, Jordan Willis recorded a half-sack in this game. Now, in three games with the Niners and just over 100 defensive snaps, he has 1.5 sacks, which is more than he’s totaled in any season at any point in his four-year career. Sacks aren’t everything, but Willis has looked active and athletic since coming over from the Jets. Culture and coaching matter. There’s a very real chance we got a steal.
Go Niners 👍🏈