Preview: Wk10 @ Saints

A potential MVP candidate if non-QBs were ever included [Butch Dill/Associated Press]

Opponent: New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Date: Sunday, 11/15
Location: New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

If it seems like we’re always playing the Saints in New Orleans that’s because we are. Aside from a spanking at home during the Chip Kelly era, we’ve played the Saints five times since the 2012 season and each time it’s been in the Superdome. Each season—save again for that Chip Kelly one—it seems to have major playoff implications. This year is no different. For them at least.

Fresh off a resounding ass-beating of the Bucs, the 6-2 Saints have now won five in a row, and—just like the Packers and Seahawks before them—are atop the NFC and in pole position for the first overall seed in the conference. For us, the stakes are more about whether or not we can hang onto an outside playoff shot or if we’ll enter the upcoming bye with a plan that is a bit more geared towards the future.

But hey, at least there won’t be any fans.

INJURY REPORT

With practice squadder Austin Walter moved up to the active roster, the Niners have officially ruled out Raheem Mostert (ankle) for Sunday. He should be good after the bye… At receiver, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) was a “maybe” to return this week, but after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, that seems unlikely... Trent Taylor (back) sat out Wednesday, but practiced Thursday, so he’s hopefully good to go, while River Cracraft (yes, it has come to point where I’m giving River Cracraft injury updates) moved the other way this week, sitting out Thursday with a thigh contusion… Kendrick Bourne is the big question mark on offense. At the beginning of the week he was back on the COVID list after testing positive, then negative, then negative, then positive, over the course of last week. Now it seems like he’s in the clear, but whether or not he’ll be able to practice Friday and play Sunday is still up in the air.

The biggest news of the week is in our secondary, where Jaquiski Tartt (turf toe) was put on IR on Wednesday, and—as of Thursday—Shanahan said it’s the real real IR. Tartt will be out for the season. Meanwhile, K’Waun Williams’ high-ankle sprain makes for a tough decision. Since Williams has already been on IR once this season he CANNOT go back on AND RETURN again later this year. But with a 4-6 week recovery timetable, can/should the Niners hold a roster spot open for him for what could amount to (on the optimistic side) the last three or fewer games of the season? On the bright side, Richard Sherman (calf)—who hasn’t played since week one—returned to practice this week. However, this is more likely than not just to get him acclimated to practice again in anticipation of a post-bye return date. Shanahan says there’s a chance he plays against the Saints, but it’s highly unlikely.

Gearing up to throw -5 to 10 yards down the field, no doubt [The Athletic]

OFFENSE

Sean Payton has spent the past fourteen years piloting this Saints offense, and while the pieces and focal points may change, it is still—at its core—built on the back of Drew Brees, his quick release, and his pinpoint accuracy.

Brees, who turns 42 in January, lacks the arm strength and velocity that he once had but can still do 90% of what has made this offense so dangerous throughout the years. He makes up for a lack of size and declining physical tools with some of the best accuracy and anticipation the league has ever seen, and his ability to dink-and-dunk you to death gave our defense fits last year during a 48-46 shootout. He can still hit outside the hashes on a high-low read but that’s about what’s left of his arm strength and he has to shuffle into it. Luckily, the Saints’ scheme doesn’t require him to rifle in many passes because of the space provided by their bread-and-butter concept: four verticals. 

While “four verticals” sounds antithetical to a short-yardage passing game and more like what that guy who started experimenting with creatine in college and now thinks he’s a quarterback wants to run every pick-up game, it’s actually a terrific building block for an offense. The basic concept is that you’re sending four receivers deep down the field, which puts any two-high coverage into man and any one-high coverage into a bind down its seams. While four verticals can result in receivers simply running by their defenders, it more often leads to back shoulder fades (Marques Colston’s former specialty), mismatches down the seam (Jimmy Graham’s former speciality), or any manner of digs, crossers, curls, and deep outs that are opened up by selling the deep route and then snapping it off underneath into vacated space (Michael Thomas’ current specialty).

With endless tags, sight adjustments, and differing rules based on personnel and formation, four verticals can look vastly different from one play to another, and the Saints can attack you with it from any number of looks. Once you start to play off coverage, Brees will slice-and-dice in the quick game with all sorts of sticks, spots, spacing, and two-man concepts that take advantage of his quick diagnostic ability and the cleared space underneath. Basically, they use four verticals to stretch you vertically then hit you with a billion little paper cuts as you deny the deep ball.

Every Saints backfield has one inside and one outside guy. Alvin Kamara, a true rushing and passing threat who’s incredible in space, is the latter, while Latavius Murray acts as their battering ram inside. Kamara already has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this year, with 90 more yards receiving than rushing; he’s as much a receiver as he is a running back at this point, and regardless of how he gets the ball he is very dangerous in the open field. The two backs run behind a very talented offensive line, bookended by two of the best tackles in the game in Ryan Ramcyzk and Teron Armstead.

Their outside wideouts are all vertical threats and—recently at least—mostly low-volume, high-variance types. The real heavy usage is on the inside where their tight ends run seams and crossers and Michael Thomas—one of the best wideouts in the league—is an absolute target hog in the slot, gobbling up intermediate looks regardless of coverage. After totaling a single-season record of 144 catches last year, Thomas has been AWOL with injuries (and stupidity) for the majority of the season. As of last week he’s back and seemingly at full health. Lucky us.

If there’s a way to slow these guys down it starts with tackling Kamara in space and making them throw to someone who isn’t Michael Thomas. While Thomas’ absence in the early goings has had the unexpected benefit of forcing the Saints to spread the ball around, when you take away Thomas they’ve had issues in the past. We’ll throw a lot of different looks at their star slot receiver, but Jamar Taylor will have to absorb the brunt of the snaps and he at least needs to hold his own for us to keep this a ballgame. On the outside, the Saints are a bit like the Packers: their guys have the athleticism to make you pay if you find yourself out of position, but you’ll live with one-on-one matchups otherwise. That math changes a bit if the Saints have a healthy Thomas and (sad) Emmanuel Sanders on the field together for just the second time this season, but regardless, we can’t afford to give much extra help outside.

For the Future: Marcell Harris & Jamar Taylor

Nothing like going up against the Saints as an extended audition for our two up-and-down backups as they fill in for guys who are free agents at the end of the year. Taylor got roasted by the Dolphins, picked off two passes against the Pats, and has been hit-or-miss ever since. He’s back in the starting lineup and against a future HOF’er. If there’s ever a game to show that he can cover elite slot receivers and big-bodied tight ends this would be the one.

Meanwhile, last year’s matchup against the Saints was probably Marcell Harris’ worst performance in the past two seasons. If he gets the start—practice squadder and former first-round pick Jonathan Cyprien has been promoted so that's no sure thing—this will be an opportune time for Harris to show how much he’s grown in pass coverage. With Tartt out for the season and up for a new contract come spring, Harris/Cyprien basically have a month-and-a-half long audition for the starting role in 2021.

Cam Jordan, Pro Bowl defensive end and railroad robber baron

DEFENSE

The Saints are a 4-2-5 nickel defense that rarely ever plays without a slot cornerback, runs primarily single-high looks, and leans heavily on man coverage. 

Personnel-wise, the Saints are well-balanced with plus performers on each level. Cameron Jordan is a mainstay at defensive end, a top-tier edge rusher who’s never missed a game due to injury and has 137 consecutive starts despite being only 31 years old. He may only have 2.5 sacks on the season, but his presence has been felt. With Marcus Davenport back from injury on the other side, and a rotating group of talent along the interior, the Saints currently rank 4th in adjusted sack rate.

DeMario Davis was a first-team All-Pro last year at linebacker. While his play’s dipped a bit in 2020, he and Alex “looks like Fabio if anyone remembers Fabio” Anzalone are a talented duo who rarely leave the field. However, with recently-traded Kwon Alexander suiting up for the first time this week, how they rotate snaps will be interesting (and important in determining when our draft pick acquisition comes through). Often joining them in the box is their Swiss Army Knife safety Malcolm Jenkins. Signed from Philly this off-season, he’s often tasked with balancing out their defense, but he may have been brought in a year too late. He’s struggled at times this year and would have been the most likely candidate to be matched up in man coverage on George Kittle. Obviously, that no longer matters, but there’s still a chance that Jordan Reed could do some damage in this matchup.

Fourth-year corner Marshon Lattimore mans one wide corner position. He came on as one of the top corners in the league as a rookie but his play has steadily declined since. Realistically, free agent Janoris Jenkins has taken over as their top corner. Marcus Williams mans their deep safety and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson—who is well-known for getting under people’s skin and was last scene getting sucker punched by Javon Wims—is their nickel corner. Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers (without Davante) diced them up pretty bad early in the season, but—after they held the Bucs to three points on Sunday night—that seems like ages ago.

With a strong defensive line and talented linebackers, it’s not particularly surprising that the Saints have been stout against the run this season. That being said, we are pretty much obligated to try and overpower any team that refuses to put a third linebacker in the box. If Deebo is playing and can provide some edge play and misdirection, the Niners’ diverse run game will certainly whip up ways of forcing Saints DBs into crucial run-stuffing roles, and while their secondary tackles well as a whole, it’s a strategy that should also make them easier to target through the air. 

Since Deebo likely isn’t playing, expect a gameplan that leans heavily on Brandon Aiyuk and—if they’re available and the staff is willing to give them major snaps—KB and Jordan Reed. At this point I think we can all agree that Mullens is at his best when we’re getting the ball out of his hands quickly and shielding him from pressure. Those underneath passes may fit well into this game plan because if there’s a weakness for these DBs it’s likely on shorter passes rather than the endless array of deep balls that the Buccaneers refused to get away from last week. Screens are harder against man coverage, but we’ll need to incorporate some—potentially inside—as well as play action—to keep Mullens upright and rhythm.

For the Future: QB, Nick Mullens

While he may never be our franchise quarterback, this is Mullens’ team for the foreseeable future, and the better he plays the more it helps us in 2021–whether that’s as a member of our team or someone else’s. 

Mullens is a restricted free agent at the end of this year, meaning we can offer him a one-year tender on a first round, second round, or original round compensation rate. Thus we have incredible flexibility. If Jimmy G is our starter next year, his injury history alone means we need a strong backup. If we move on from Garoppolo, the staff would likely want to keep an established veteran such as Mullens as a mentor/bridge quarterback for a rookie signal caller. Or if Mullens absolutely explodes, showing a ceiling and consistency that makes us (or anyone else) believe he could be a starting quarterback, then we get another year to try him out while simultaneously dangling him as trade bait. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that last scenario happening, but regardless of how Mullens plays, our ability to retain him on the cheap for another year gives us a lot of options. 

Additionally, if Mullens plays well and we want to let him walk, there are enough teams running Shanahan’s scheme that the contract he would receive—even as a backup QB—would net us some kind of comp pick. It would be unrealistic to think Mullens would line up the kind of starter-turned-backup-turned-starter contracts that Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles recently signed—both netting third round comp picks—but at least a sixth rounder is well within reason and much better than nothing.

On the road as a 9.5-point underdog after two straight beatdowns as we gimp towards the bye, it’s hard to get super excited about this matchup. That being said, we’re still a team that’s well-coached and talented enough to be competitive down the stretch. The question is whether we show that this week or if we’ll need the bye to regroup.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Packers 34, Niners 17

54.6% of our total offense [Jed Jacobsohn/AP Photo]

Eh.

I guess that’s what we should have expected.

Late in the first quarter, this was still a game. After a leaky start, our defense settled in and held the Packers to two quick punts sandwiching an 11-play, 76-yard, should-have-been-touchdown drive that was foiled by the inexperienced hands of practice squadder River Cracraft.

On our next possession a bad hold on second down set up a third-and-long, our last-second replacement at left tackle opened the gate for Preston Smith, and Nick Mullens—as he is want to do when he gets pressure in his face—tossed the ball up for grabs.

Despite the interception and good field position, our defense held strong once again, but—when it looked like we had held the Packers to a field goal—a horrendous third down PI on Jason Verrett set the Pack up for an easy touchdown. From there, our already depleted tank was tapped out, and it was off to the races.

Yes, it was only three plays, and yes, we were highly likely to lose this game regardless. But this team, in this state of health, with this jumbled week of preparation, couldn’t really afford any bad breaks. And when they came, we hurried this game along to its inevitable end as quickly as possible.

For anyone who watched it all the way through, that wasn’t nearly quick enough.

OFFENSE

Unimpressive? Yes. Unexpected? Only a little bit.

While we moved the ball well to start, our offense fizzled out after we got out of our initial script. Considering that script had to be entirely rearranged in the eleventh hour after Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams were made inactive the afternoon before kickoff, and that their replacements—two practice squadders and a mostly-special teams receiver coming off an ankle injury—had zero in-person practice reps due to the shutdown of the Niners facility on Wednesday, that probably shouldn’t have been surprising. FWIW, it was confirmed on Friday that KB’s COVID test was actually a false positive, meaning all three of our top offensive players shouldn’t have had to sit out the game. 

2020. Le sigh.

The circumstances were rough, but it was an equally rough performance from Nick Mullens, who needs to show out to cement the backup position for next year and/or audition for other teams in free agency. To be fair, he was thrown into a losing situation. Whether it was due to drops, miscommunications, lack of reps, inaccuracy, or all of the above, a lot of balls hit the grass in this one, and—while some were clearly more Mullens’ fault than others—you’re just not gonna have a lot of success throwing to dudes on gameday who you haven’t even thrown to in practice. River Cracraft for example was likely a true practice squadder during this week’s practices, emulating the opposition’s playbook as—through Tuesday night at least—KB, Aiyuk, James, Taylor, and Kevin White were all expected to play. How many passes has Mullens thrown to Cracraft within the Niners’ offense? How many has he thrown outside of training camp? Does the number rhyme with “hero”?

It was a bummer for Mullens, who did nothing to assuage our concerns of another Eagles game down the pipe. It was a bummer for Justin Skule, who was a turnstile all night and directly led to both Mullens turnovers. It was a bummer for JaMycal Hasty, who saw his star drop as he ceded touches to McKinnon and who fumbled (even if it didn’t count this time) for the second week in a row. It was a bummer for River Cracraft, who entered this game with a single catch over the past three years and who may never have a chance at a touchdown again. And boy ever was it a bummer to watch. 

Stock Up: Richie James

Sure, he had one ugly drive-killing drop, but he also exploded for 9 catches, 184 yards, and a score (and only half of that came in garbage time). James was the only guy all night who looked like a threat further than five yards down the field, finding spots behind the Packers’ shallow zones and showing nice juice after the catch.

James, who totaled more receiving yards this game than he had in either of his past two seasons, missed weeks 2-5 but finally seems to be rounding into (fingers crossed) decent health. After seeing only 33 offensive snaps to Trent Taylor’s 164 leading up to this game, James’ performance on Thursday should at least provide a strong pitch for evening out that disparity moving forward.

Stock Up: Daniel Brunskill

For the first time this season, Daniel Brunskill got the start at center, a move that is likely as much about the future as it is about Hronis Grassu’s major struggles last week. Brunskill was solid in his first start, seemingly communicating and moving well throughout the game, with his only real knock that he’d sometimes lose ground off the snap to bull rushes from Kenny Clark. 

Brunskill, whose listed weight varies from 256 to 300 pounds, is not the biggest dude—nor is he the most freakishly athletic—but he’s smart, plays good positional football, and could be the heir apparent at center. Ben Garland is thirty-two, Weston Richburg is due a massive salary next year that we are highly unlikely to pay, and—while Tom Compton started Thursday at guard—the Niners could be spending the back end of this season trying out a Tomlinson/Brunskill/McKivitz interior line for 2021 and beyond. If that trio can hold their own and show some upside moving forward, that could be a good place to save some much-needed money this off-season.

Stock Down: Justin Skule

Just two years into his career, our 2019 sixth-round swing tackle has had quite the whirlwind of a career in San Francisco. After a rough training camp last year, I gave him the Greg Mabin/Dontae Johnson Award (hence renamed the Brian Allen Memorial Award) as the player I was most terrified to see play meaningful snaps. Then he started eight games(!) at left tackle(!!), and we went 13-3. 

Granted there were hiccups—like a game where he was dinged up and got worked by (yup) the Packers as well as the Steelers contest where he, by himself, gave up a whopping -40 marginal penalty yards in the fourth quarter—but he was a sixth-round rookie starting major snaps for the NFC Champions. Throw in a 2020 training camp where he was being lauded as much improved, and the arrow was clearly pointing up.

But then, as a last second sub for the COVID-adjacent Trent Williams, he got worked. According to PFF, he allowed six pressures, three hurries, two QB hits, one sack, and had the lowest individual grade of any player on the Niners. He was also directly connected to both of Nick Mullens’ turnovers. After this performance, it’s hard to have a ton of faith in him as a swing tackle, much less a potential replacement for Williams if he leaves.

DEFENSE

Not the best performance from our defense, which folded rather quickly despite being much closer to full-strength than it’s been since the early season. As discussed above, we had a string of good drives early, but the touchdown set up by the Verrett penalty and the ensuing Tartt injury that set up the deep score to Marquez Valdez-Scantling effectively put this game out of reach. 

Tartt apparently has turf toe, which means he could be back in time to play the Saints or he could miss weeks. I think we know which one is likely to happen… Meanwhile, K’Waun Williams also left the game early. He has—wait for it… a high-ankle sprain. Whoever guessed that gets absolutely nothing as it was certainly the heavy Vegas favorite and casinos can’t risk taking bets on such a sure thing while being heavily affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Until proven otherwise the story on the Packers remains as follows: if you have a disruptive pass rush you can give them fits; if you don’t, it’s hard to keep them in check. Considering star left tackle Erik Bakhtiari was out with injury, it was disappointing that we couldn’t create more pressure on Rodgers, who we only hit once all game. 

It is not without reason to think that part of why we looked relatively flat was the whirlwind of a week that started with locker room-favorite Kwon Alexander getting traded on Monday and ended with COVID shutdown madness on Wednesday, but at this point it seems pretty clear: we have a good defense that can perform like a very good one as long as we’re playing complementary football. It goes without saying that wasn’t the case on Thursday night. 

Stock Up: Jordan Willis

While the healthy return of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford in 2021 is still the most direct solution to the majority of our pass rush woes, how our Bravo (second team) unit shapes up will be an intriguing subplot this off-season.

Kerry Hyder may have played so well and gotten so many snaps that we’ll get priced out of his services, but he’d obviously be someone we’d love to lead our second-line. Ronald Blair, assuming he comes back healthy at some point this year or in the off-season, would make a lot of sense as well. Since his rehab has been stalled, it’s unlikely he gets so healthy so quickly that he can leverage this year into a bigger deal, and—lest we forget—the dude is a very talented pass rusher. If both the guys above plus Bosa and Ford come back we are obliterating offensive lines next year, but even if they do, this year has made it clear how important it is to stockpile edge rush depth.

Jordan Willis, who is really only getting by on hustle and glimpses of athleticism at this point, recorded the only sack in this game for the Niners, chasing down Rodgers for an eleven yard loss right before the half. Time will tell if he’s long-term, second-line material, but what makes him extra intriguing is the fact that if he comes back for the Niners next year he may have a glow up. 

Jordan Willis has three career sacks (one in each season, not including 2020), but displayed elite athleticism at the Combine after an 11.5-sack senior year at Kansas State.

He's played just 11 percent of snaps for the Jets this year #49ers https://t.co/WOYg39A3F3 pic.twitter.com/WNiRAxDhvX

— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) October 21, 2020

As discussed earlier, Jordan Willis blew up the 2017 NFL combine, putting up Myles Garrett-esque numbers. However, he actually did so well in athletic testing that both the Bengals and the Jets both moved him to linebacker—an edge linebacker, not a traditional stand-up one, but a linebacker nonetheless—and tasked him with adding weight. While Willis was 255 when he played in college and tested at the combine, he now plays at 270. With Bosa at 266 and Ford at 252, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners work on finding a weight that actually works best for optimizing Willis’ physical ability. 

I am completely guessing here, but I don’t think Dee Ford comes back this season. But even if he does, Willis will have plenty of opportunities to prove that he belongs in our DL rotation moving forward.

Stock Down: Marcell Harris

And just when it looked like he was fixing some of his issues in deep coverage…

Granted, Harris was put in a tough position on the touchdown he allowed to MVS—showing box play before bailing deep into quarters coverage against a skinny post. But that’s also the kind of play that a healthy Tartt has the agility and athleticism to at least force a contested throw.

Harris delivered at least one of his trademark big hits in the second half, and there’s a chance—I admittedly wasn’t paying much attention once we were down big—that he was doing well in coverage on most other snaps. That’s usually the case with him, mostly solid play, but when he’s on the bad end of a play it sticks out. That’s a hard line to tow at safety.

The Niners will have 10 days rest before facing a Saints team that just beat the ever-loving-shit out of one of the NFC’s many would-be front runners, then we’ll head into a much-needed bye. While the severity of many of our key injuries is great enough that the bye isn’t going to solve our woes, it will give us time to regroup, heal up, and get our remaining players on the same page.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk9 vs. Packers

Don’t be the Texans. In any way. [Getty Images]

Opponent: Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Date: Thursday, 11/5
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 5:20 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Football is obviously more fun when you have a chance of competing on the highest level. With our insane stretch of injuries, that’s not something we can realistically do. To be fair, I still think our staff has the chops and our roster the depth to pants a few teams the rest of the way—after all, Mullens to Pettis was the dynamic duo that beat a playoff bound Seahawks late in 2018. But the shift of our focus as fans is clearly towards 2021, and to reflect that I’ll try and shift these previews and recaps as such.

INJURY REPORT

LOL. 

I’ll bypass the long list of guys who we KNOW are out in lieu of those we actually had hope for. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out. Jaquiski Tartt hasn’t practiced yet but there’s been no official word on if he’ll play. Jordan Reed practiced limited on Tuesday, which means he’s probably on the right side of a 50/50 chance at playing against the Pack. Richie James also was limited. Shrugging emoji for his status. Everyone else who you think might be injured almost certainly is and won’t be playing.

On the COVID side of things Kendrick Bourne just tested positive this morning. It seems like he’s the only one who has been isolated. With Samuel and Bourne out, Pettis just waived, and Richie James a question mark for this week, we are getting into rando territory. The Niners are likely to spend all the 2020 money they just freed up by waiving Pettis to promote former first-rounder and (lol) oft-injured Kevin White for the rest of the year as an extended tryout for the future and/or bring up someone like River Cracraft.

For self-flagellatory purposes, I decided to make a depth chart for this week. RED marks players who are injured or no longer with the team, YELLOW means they might play, GREEN with bold font are your expected starters this week, “(PS)” marks someone who was on the practice squad initially, and “FA” marks someone who we literally picked up off the street.

I noticed after completing this chart that I forgot Jalen Hurd. He would probably push Taylor back a slot.

UPDATE: Nevermind, KB’s “close contacts” have been confirmed as Brandon Aiyuk—our best remaining offensive weapon—and Trent Williams—our best lineman. So neither of them will be playing Thursday either 🙃👍

HAPPY TRAILS

On Monday we shipped KWON ALEXANDER to the Saints in exchange for a conditional fifth-round pick and Kiko Alonso, my least favorite player. It’s unclear whether Kiko was a wanted piece in the trade or a salary dump from the Saints so they could bring on Kwon’s salary, but either way he’s on the last year of a contract that will only count $900K against our cap, hasn’t played this season due to a late ACL tear in 2019, and has done little in the league after a promising start to his career. When healthy he’s not a terrible player and Azeez Al-Shair has been uneven in his second year, but my hope is that Alonso is cut, or—at worst—held as a reserve for the rest of the season before being let go on an expiring contract.

The real goal of this move was to dump Kwon’s salary and add a 2021 draft pick as we enter an off-season with a ton of roster turnover. After a contract restructure earlier this year, trading Kwon means we’ll be on the hook for $6.9M in dead money in 2021–a considerably smaller figure than the $15.6M he’d have otherwise cost against our cap. Given the deflated COVID cap and Dre Greenlaw’s bargain salary and starting ability, it was a move that should have been expected. The Niners were planning to cut Kwon in the off-season if they couldn’t find a trade partner, so literally anything in return was worth a trade. Thus, a fifth-rounder is a nice pickup, even if—as has been reported—Kwon needs to hit playing time parameters otherwise the pick is pushed to next year.

While Kwon never stayed healthy enough to reach his full potential in his year-and-a-half in San Francisco, he was a splash play guy who had a knack for the ball. But his most important contributions were in the locker room. Kwon created a mindset (and Hot Boyzz mantra) that the entire team embraced, while his super-positive, high-energy personality directly contributed to helping shape Fred Warner into the All-Pro-caliber player he is today.

While it would be a hard sell that his play justified his price tag, this is at least a case where the intangible benefits he provided were readily apparent. Now, were those benefits worth the $25 million we paid him for 14 games? That’s debatable. But if Kwon was the difference in changing the defense’s mentality and launching Warner’s play into the stratosphere then it was a move we’d happily make again.

After failing to find a trade partner, the Niners released 2018 second-round pick DANTE PETTIS on Tuesday afternoon. It’s crazy that he averaged 17+ yards/catch and caught five tugs through seven starts as a rookie but couldn’t crack a receiver-needy lineup in the past two years. While the physical talent was there, you can’t blame Shanahan for not doling out the snaps. Seemingly every time Pettis took the field he was either sticking out for the wrong reasons or completely disappearing for reasons equally as bad. The fact that he couldn’t even force a timeshare with Trent Taylor—who is a quality blocker but has brought nothing in the receiving game over the past three years—was disheartening after a training camp where things had supposedly “clicked.” All that said, I’d fully expect him to get swooped up off waivers when the smoke clears next week. Letting Pettis go saves us about $500k this year and his $1.36M base salary next year.

More surprisingly, the Niners also waived JULLIAN TAYLOR on Tuesday. Taylor, who was still on the PUP List due to a torn ACL last Thanksgiving, was locked up through 2021 and actually showed a ton of promise when he was on the field. Taylor was plagued by injuries in college, an issue that has—as evidenced by his placement on the PUP list—followed him to the pros. That being said he had super high-end potential, played well in limited snaps, was already much better than second-line DT Kentavius Street, and was on the third year of a very cheap four-year deal as we enter an off-season where DJ Jones is a UFA. Taylor was just scratching the surface of his potential and looked to have a clear path to second-team snaps, so I don’t really get the move.

Now there are a couple specifics of the PUP List that I’m not quite sure about which likely shaped this move. First off, my guess is that Taylor’s rehab had a hold-up and the Niners no longer expected him back by the end of the year. That theory would also play into the second note, which is that Taylor was waived with a failed physical designation, which I don’t know a ton about other than that it avoids an injury settlement. Perhaps this is a case where is being waived now with the intent of being re-signed later? If so, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be cheaper than his ~$800K price tag. Or perhaps they’re just happy enough with Kinlaw and Givens (and practice squadder Darrion Daniels?) that—regardless of whether DJ Jones returns or not—they were fine with letting Taylor walk. While this seems a bit like a DJ Reed situation (aka one that jettisons a talented young player for little in return), it could just come down to numbers. And not just saving them but being able to pay to operate the rest of the season.

As I’ve been saying, 49ers were very short on cap space. Jullian Taylor waive helps situation.

SF couldn’t have afforded to promote Kevin White from PS at SEA. See how that turned out (Pettis fumble). White promotion would cost $482k. Post-Kwon trade/waives, 49ers have some $$ https://t.co/S4DnEWz5us

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 3, 2020

We’re gonna have a lot of roster turnover this off-season. Perhaps, if healthy, Taylor can make his way back into our two-deep then.

Important hand signals or sex joke? You decide [FOX]

OFFENSE

A QB coach under Shanahan in Atlanta and an OC under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, Matt LaFleur has his roots in the same zone/play action based scheme as we do, but—like everyone else under the Shanahan extended coaching tree—it’s a simpler version than ours.

Last year LaFleur got credit for a quick turnaround in Green Bay, but there were concerns about how his offense meshed with Aaron Rodgers. Now, those concerns are all but gone. The offense, which was already ranked 9th in DVOA last year, has jumped up to 2nd in 2020, and the most obvious difference is in Aaron Rodgers’ comfort level in the system. They’ve catered and adapted the scheme to what Rodgers is most comfortable with, which was resulted in an offense that still throws the ball down the sidelines and hits the middle of the field with digs, crossers, and short posts but also uses motion and misdirection to scheme up quick hitters and run plays. That makes for a passing attack that is dangerous on all three levels.

On the ground, they employ a two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, both explosive runners and strong receivers out of the backfield. However, AJ Dillon, their 6-0 247-pound rookie power back, just tested positive for COVID. While Jones is expected to be back from injury, both Dillon and Jamaal Williams—who was labeled a close contact—are out for the game Thursday.

At receiver they have Davante Adams, a top-five wideout and probably the single best receiver on the planet at slipping press coverage off the line of scrimmage. He’s a massive threat on all three levels and can be a target hog if they like a matchup. Surrounding him are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard—two guys who are practically the same big-bodied but not overly dynamic player—and George Kittle’s buddy Robert Tonyan at tight end. There are weapons in the passing game but Adams is the danger man.

Through the first half of the year, Rodgers is playing MVP-caliber ball, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,948 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only 2 picks despite missing Adams for about half of those games. The offensive line—led by center Cory Linsley and long-time left tackle Eric Bakhtiari—continues to be a strength, keeping Rodgers very very clean against 90% of the competition. But therein lies the big question: exactly how much of their offensive output has been based on subpar competition? And what do they look like when they play a strong defense?

Through seven games the Packers have only beaten one team with a Defensive DVOA in the upper half of the NFL, and when they went down to Tampa Bay they were woefully embarrassed by what is perhaps the top defense in the NFL. During that game, the Packers—despite coming off a bye week—scored a season-low 10 points as Rodgers threw for 160 yards and two picks while getting sacked four times (or half of the number of sacks he’s suffered all year). If there’s one negative that seems to have held over from last year, it’s that ferocious pass rushes continue to cause very real problems for this Packers offense. If we had our defensive line I’d be pretty confident in saying we’d beat dat ass. Without them, this matchup promises to be much more complicated.

Rodgers is no spring chicken, but he has one of the best minds and arms in football and thrives when given the time and space to improvise. We’re likely to give him some blitz looks, whether we’re bluffing or not. Dialing them up on the right occasions and getting home when we inevitably send a cat blitz off the edge will be key to keeping Rodgers from getting too comfortable.

In coverage, we need to have a plan for Davante Adams and try to limit how much press man he sees. I’d assume their opening script features him in motion and isolated opposite trips as they try to get a sense of what we’re going to throw at him. Coverage disguises and variety will be key. If you can limit Adams’ impact and prevent those running backs from getting going in the run or pass game, then you’re fine with making everyone else beat you. While the other guys have a lot of size out wide, they do most of their damage on back shoulder fades and digs. If our linebackers get their depth in the passing game to play the inside breaking routes, we can live with that.

For the Future: S, Marcell Harris

If Tartt misses his third straight game, Harris will try once again to make the pitch for the starting SS job next year. Tartt is a UFA at end of the season and Harris—despite the superior athleticism of Tarvarius Moore and the defense’s move to more interchangeable safeties—seems entrenched as his backup at strong safety. While there are those in the fan base who have gotten impatient with Harris due to a few high-profile misses in coverage last year, he’s typically been better than his lowlights would indicate. He’s a smart, high-energy player, who really brings the wood on contact, and even in today’s NFL there’s a place for a player like that. 

Two starts into 2020—one against one of the top passing attacks in the nation—Harris is certainly playing his best ball, but the Packers will present another aerial attack that will test him in coverage. Harris is at his best as a glorified linebacker and doesn’t have the dynamic athleticism and versatility of Tartt, but if he can assert himself as a fundamentally sound cover guy who is no longer the target of elite passing attacks, his cheaper price tag and fewer health problems may be enough to convince the Niners to move him into a starting role in 2021. 

Probably who we should have signed instead of Dee Ford [PackersWire]

DEFENSE

In last year’s NFC Championship Game the Packers lined up in base 3-4 formation, with wide stand-up edges, tight Cover 2 and Cover 1 looks, and dared us to run. So we did. A lot. After we pounded them off tackle and around the edges to 285 yards rushing, you can rest assured, whatever we see this Thursday will NOT be what they showed us last November. 

Pettine’s scheme is based largely on four and five-man fronts with two stand-up edges, employing five or more DBs most of the time, and lots of exotic alignments and blitz looks—even though they don’t truly blitz that often. This naturally leans towards stopping the pass, as the extra DBs help in coverage, and the front seven’s comfort level with a number of looks helps generate pressure in a variety of ways. However, that really hasn’t been the case in year two. While the 2019 Packers were a strong unit against the pass and a sieve against the run, this year they’ve been pretty below average against both. Their DVOA rankings are 29th overall, 25th against the pass, and 22nd against the run. If there’s such a thing as a potentially soft landing for an offense full of backups on a short week against a division leader (that isn’t in the NFC East), this could be that. 

Za’Darius Smith is still their danger man on the edge. He leads the team with six sacks, but the exotic looks have failed to materialize much of a pass rush around him. Preston Smith, who tallied 12 sacks opposite Za’Darius last year, has only half a sack through seven games, while Rashan Gary—their 2019 first-rounder who they moved from defensive end to outside linebacker—has shown flashes of tapping his incredible physical gifts but is far from a major contributor. Even the return of NT Kenny Clark—who missed about a month-and-a-half with injury—and solid performances against the run from Kingsley Keke and Tyler Lancaster have done little to bolster their pass rush. Thus, this is a one-man band in the pressure department.

At linebacker, mainstay Blake Martinez is off being one of the only bright spots on the New York Giants and the Packers have replaced him with… a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of. Given their lack of production and the fact that two of them are first- or second-year players, I’d assume the Packers are riding the whole “stand-up linebackers don’t matter” analytics trend that seems to be taking the league by storm. While PFF gets a bit sketchy with their linebacker grading, the grades in this case are so aggressive that it’s worth noting them. As of now, none of the Packers’ top three linebackers have greater than a 44.2 overall rating, a 65.3 rating against the run, or a 44.3 against the pass. For reference, our backup linebacker Azeez Al-Shair, on just a few dozen snaps less than his Packers peers, has a grade split of 60.7/58.2/61.3. So yeah, there are some matchups to be had here, both on the ground and through the air. But with Kittle out and Reed questionable to play, those matchups may be harder than usual to exploit.

In the secondary, Jaire Alexander is their lockdown guy out wide. Every other corner is just okay. They employ Adrian Amos—their best safety—and Darnell Savage as every down safeties while Raven Greene and Will Redmond rotate as their big nickel, with the former leaning more towards box play and the latter about 50/50 in the box or over the slot. 

While the Packers will certainly be committed to stopping it, establishing a physical running game clearly needs to be a priority. Even if they sell out to against it, we’d be foolish to at least not try to repeat our success from last year—particularly after Dalvin Cook just dusted them for 163 yards rushing, 63 receiving, and four touchdowns last weekend. The Pack are strong along the DL, but it’s a tough matchup for them on the second level. Do they play two subpar linebackers to match beef with beef, or do they give up that size and roll down someone like Greene who’s played well against the run but gives up valuable size? Again, no Kittle means we’re missing our number one chess piece used to punish teams regardless of that decision, but if some combination of Deebo/Reed can play, there’s still potential for a personnel advantage. 

In the passing game, I was initially expecting split coverage looks that include some Cover 2 squat corners as they aim to muscle around our receivers on underneath routes and flood the shallow horizontal zones to counteract touch passes, swings, and short game. That being said, we could just see a lot of man coverage now. Realistically, I have no idea what our passing offense is capable of given a short week, Deebo out, Richie James a maybe, and KB going down the day before the game. Regardless, be prepared for weird ass shit on third down, where they love their exotic blitz looks—especially against a backup quarterback who has a sketchy record against pressure. Last time we played them, Shanahan burned Pettine with a third down draw against an exotic blitz that gave up gaps in the running game. The result was a 38-yard Mostert touchdown. We obviously won’t be able to get away with running the ball on every passing down (or will we…?), but if we can keep to third-and-manageable we may be able to scare Pettine out of some of his more risky blitz packages and make Mullens’ life a bit easier.

For the Future: RB, JaMycal Hasty

With Mostert, Wilson, and Coleman out, the undrafted rookie has got a shot to really assert his role in the running back rotation for 2021 and beyond. Mostert is the only member of the backfield—Juice included—who is signed through 2021, and while he’s proven to be an absolute stud when healthy, his lack of availability has shown light on how important it is to have a healthy stable of backups and rotational runners in the fold.

Neither Coleman nor Jet McKinnon seem likely to return in 2021. Jeff Wilson Jr. is a restricted free agent, so the Niners will likely slap him with the same one-year, second-round tender tag that they gave Matt Breida last year. But the Niners want at least three capable running backs, and right now Hasty has the first shot at calling dibs on one of those spots—a proposition that the Niners would love considering he’s a first-year exclusive rights free agent and can be locked up on the cheap through at least 2022. 

Given the status of the rest of our roster, who knows when Coleman and Mostert will return to the field this year. But while they’re out, Hasty—against an NFC contender with a soft rushing defense and only McKinnon to share the load—has the opportunity on Thursday night to make quite the pitch for a more permanent role.

Oddly enough, it’s once again the Vikings who present a favorable blueprint for how to beat the Packers—by plugging away on the ground against their suspect rushing defense. While the Packers are certain to be expecting that and are unlikely to be scared of Nick Mullens on a short week of practice with a depleted crop of weapons, the Vikings’ powerful run game was able to dominate the clock and play keep away from a Packers offense that—while explosive—is no longer built for the kind of wide open sets that Rodgers is famous for. And they did all that with Kirk Cousins attempting only 14 passes in the game. While I would recommend a bit more balance than that, there’s a chance that—even depleted—we can have success with a similar game script.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Seahawks 37, 49ers 27

Let’s all pretend this picture sums up what happened on the field [Joe Nicholson/USA Today]

While the end score was closer than the game ended up being, our backup-led flourish in the fourth pointed to all the issues we had in the initial three stanzas. Despite a banged up secondary and a pass rush which had been largely nonexistent until this point, the Seahawks bottled up our offense in the third quarter while theirs scored on their first three possessions of the second half.

By the time a gimpy Jimmy G went back to the locker room—joined shortly by a gimpy Fred Warner and a gimpy George Kittle—the score was 30-7. Given the injury news that came down the pipe Monday and the first of what could be multiple trades before the deadline later today, the focus of the previews and recaps will start to resemble what is now clearly the focus of the rest of the 49ers’ season: the future.

OFFENSE

Without Deebo’s ability to create with the ball and stretch out defenses horizontally, there were worries that we’d have issues against a team that—for all their poor statistics—was typically stout against the run. Those fears proved legitimate.

Faced with loaded boxes and zero threat of the passing game, the Seahawks held our rushing attack to 52 yards on 22 carries (2.4 ypc) and forced Garoppolo into dropback passing situations. Jimmy G—seemingly in an effort to extend our many questions about him indefinitely—saw his accuracy waver while the offensive line, which allowed three sacks to a team that had only nine on the year entering the game, struggled to pick up the Seahawks’ blitzes once they started dialing them up in the second half.

Missed opportunities: The Niners defense started strong and the offense was finding creases early in the game, but a failure to generate points on two trips inside the Seattle forty was an ominous sign of things to come.

Facing a 3rd & four from the plus 37 on our very first drive, we called a wildcat run that got stuffed for a loss of three. I personally hate the wildcat, and while this was clearly an attempt to gain enough yardage to potentially go for it on the ensuing fourth down—an overall management strategy that I agree with—I’d have preferred to show a pass set and run rather than handoff the ball out of the most run-obvious set in football. As discussed before, part of the benefit of being more aggressive on fourth down is the ability to run or pass on third downs, but by taking out the passing threat, we lost that element of surprise. The resulting loss decided the fourth down call for us and we had to punt. 

On the next drive, after we lucked out on a fumble recovery that bounced out of bounds, we had a 3rd & five from the Seattle 20 when Shanahan called an empty set double high-low return concept. With third and manageable against a team that prefers to play zone coverage, this is a good, safe call that clears out space, fakes a common high-low look, and—with the return tag on Kittle—allows for a low-risk pass attempt at the sticks. Theoretically. While Kittle could have ran the route flatter to the LOS, Garoppolo’s pass was so late and so behind him that what should have been at worst an incomplete somehow became a pick.

The squandered opportunities continued into the second half as well. While it seemed like we did absolutely nothing with our six plays in the third (that’s right, we only had six plays for net one yard in the third. If that’s not the ultimate game flow loss, I don’t know what is), the reverse Shanahan dialed up to Aiyuk was totally the right call. Unfortunately, the execution was lacking.

This is what Aiyuk was looking at when the pitch was botched.

Considering Aiyuk had to stop, pick up the ball, but still ran for 14 yards (for a gain of 5) it’s pretty clear how open this play was. With a proper pitch he was a single tackler away from a potential house call, a Niners lead, and a dangerous end around element that could open up inside running lanes. Alas, as was typically the case today, it didn’t turn out as expected and Jimmy was sacked on the next play.

It’s never good to squander scoring opportunities. It’s worse when you squander them while playing against one of the top offenses in football.

DJ Reed (sad face emoji): DJ Reed, former 49er dime back who was swooped up off waivers when the Niners cut him post-injury during training camp, was activated from the practice squad for this matchup and was highly disruptive from his nickel corner spot. 

When the Seahawks leaned into blitzing, it was actually Reed who was their pass rush catalyst—coming off the edge on cat blitzes to end both of the Niners’ third quarter possessions. On the first third down he and Bobby Wagner combined to pancake Mike McGlinchey before Wagner tallied the sack. On the second, he came free unblocked off the edge, pushing Garoppolo into the waiting hands of Alton Robinson. 

After a day where Reed also recorded the pick on Garoppolo and broke up two passes, it’s hard to imagine he won’t be the Seahawks’ starting nickel back moving forward. At least Damontre Moore—the other player we didn’t retain who now plays for the Seahawks at what has become a major position of need—didn’t do much in this game. Also, he just got suspended six games for PEDs. So we’ll count that one as a wash.

Second half shut down: While the first half was ugly and had plenty of missed opportunities, the Niners offense actually moved the ball okay. But in the second half the Seahawks turned up the blitzes and the result was two three-and-outs sandwiching a fumbled kickoff return that effectively put the game out of reach.

Part of the problem was likely that the Niners didn’t see it coming. After the game Trent Williams nearly admitted as much, saying that they didn’t expect them to “heat it up” as much without Adams. Thus the play calls, which inherently have hot routes, were likely made in anticipation of less blitzing and more time to pass. Neither of the third down sacks appeared to have a receiver open early so it’s hard to put either on Jimmy. Then again, neither of the blitzes had a numbers advantage either (aka we had enough men to block them). Shanahan could have dialed up options with quicker hitters on those 3rd & shorts, but I don’t think any play callers are expecting to to have to get the ball out under two seconds when they have five blocking five. Considering the issues we’ve had on blitz pickups, perhaps it’s something we should start expecting—even if that shouldn’t be the case.

Oddly Quiet Kittle: For a defense missing its star hybrid safety, with linebackers and safeties who have some vulnerabilities in coverage, it was an oddly quiet game from our All-Pro tight end. A would-be first down hit off one of his hands early on what seemed like some combination of an inaccurate throw and the expectation that Kittle settle a yard to the left of where he did. And of course there was the pick thrown his way.

A short week means I won’t be able to look at the coaches film to see what happened, but I would have expected a much higher level of involvement given the injury to Deebo and the weaknesses in Seattle’s zone coverage. 

Au Revoir 2020: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Tevin Coleman all exited the game with injuries. Coleman reaggravated his injured knee but the jury’s out on the severity of it. Jimmy G re-sprained his ankle and will be out a minimum of six weeks—longer if he requires surgery. Kittle is out eight weeks with a broken bone in his foot. While the team has fought admirably to this point, we’re about to have $80M of a $200M cap on injured reserve and that doesn’t include Kwon Alexander—whose $13M cap hit was taken off IR just in time to get traded on Monday—or the $7M in salaries on the PUP List.

So… half of our entire salary cap. Cool.

DEFENSE

I’m not gonna critique this defensive performance too much. Obviously allowing 37 points isn’t a winning formula for any football team, but this is a unit that—due to our offense stalling out and Dante Pettis fumbling the kickoff—had to play 15 straight snaps over a 7+ minute period against one of the top offenses in football. Again, game flow. We were able to get away with it at times last year since we weren’t missing half our dudes. This year, we’re only winning games against good teams with complementary football, and we just didn’t have that this game.

Coming in hot: We confused the Seahawks’ pass protection early, forcing them into a game script where they became unsure of themselves and their offensive line and leaned back on an ineffective running game. Unfortunately, that only lasted for the first two series. After Garoppolo’s interception tanked another opportunity for points, the Seahawks scored on five of the next six drives—four of those scores were touchdowns.

While our defensive line did a good job maintaining gap integrity in the running game—holding DeeJay Dallas to 41 yards on 2.3 ypc and limiting Wilson to 6 carries for 23 yards—our pass rush petered out rather quickly. Kerry Hyder was his normally dependable self—bringing down Wilson for one sack and forcing a throwaway when he nearly got him for another—and Jordan Willis looked pretty solid for his first game with the Niners. But it wasn’t nearly enough. It was rare that we got any kind of pressure without sending extra men, and every time we sent extra guys we were providing less support in coverage.

Ford and Blair are (theoretically) returning at some point this season and having either/both will be a huge boost. Until then, this is likely just how it goes against teams with high-level passing attacks: try to be efficient and generate negatives when we blitz then maintain gap integrity and crowd the QB’s space when we send four. It’s not ideal, but—given our injuries at the position—I’m not sure what else we can do schematically against a team that really excels through the air. 

Moseley on Metcalf: If there’s one thing Emmanuel Moseley has struggled with in his two-ish years as a starting corner it’s guarding big wideouts who are also vertical threats. We saw it last year with Julio Jones—the last of the big fast freak wideouts of yore—and DeAndre Hopkins—who may only be 6-1 but is a powerful 212 pounds and has elite tracking ability. While it would be premature to put DK Metcalf on the level of those two, his 6-4 229-pound frame and 4.3 speed—in combination with Wilson’s deep ball acumen and pinpoint accuracy—present problems for the 5-11 190-pound Moseley.

Metcalf is the perfect fit for the Seahawks offense because he has the size/speed combo to excel at vertical routes and then—after he’s forced a big cushion—just needs to run slants, back shoulder equivalents, and square-in routes off of that vertical stem to find open space. This isn’t to diminish what Metcalf has accomplished. He is damn good at those two things. And while Moseley is a good athlete, his lack of burner speed and length means he has to play more conservative on the deep balls. While he ended up 50/50 on nine routes—getting beat by a half step and a perfect throw on one early before knocking away a would-be touchdown late—the cushion he allowed opened up some opportunities for Metcalf underneath while he struggled taking away inside leverage while pressing a handful of slants.

There’s nothing Moseley can do about the physical advantages some of these wideouts will have over him, but that doesn’t mean he lacks the ceiling to improve. He’s very young and known for his work ethic and intelligence. If he can get better at staying high-shoulder and widening vertical routes towards the sideline that would simultaneously diminish the potential for breaking routes off of those vertical stems. And if he were less worried about getting beat by those verticals then perhaps he could more regularly deny inside releases on slant routes while in press. And of course, if our pass rush was more active he wouldn’t have to cover nearly as long. Despite a rough outing, I continue to be very bullish on Moseley, but as we approach teams with elite wideouts, it will be interesting to see if the Niners do more shadow work with Verrett/Sherman.

Misc: Marcell Harris seemed to play well in this game, rarely being targeted in coverage and closing hard and violently on underneath passes. If there was a knock on his game it’s that he was surprisingly ineffective as a pass rusher... Fred Warner was knocked out of the game in the second half but returned. It was apparently a stinger. Which, thank god, because he’s the one dude who can’t afford to lose on D.

Trade Deadline!?!?!? is today at 1PM (aka before many of you will read this). While our chances of being sellers and trying to load up for the upcoming draft have greatly increased in the past 48 hours, we’ll see if anything comes from it this late in the game.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 8 @ Seahawks

Go deep, God [Derik Hamilton/UPI]

Back in the early 2010’s, the Seahawks built a foundation on the talent of two incredible drafts and two simple but well-executed schemes—a physical zone-running West Coast offense and a 4-3 under defense that leaned heavily on Cover 3. These two schemes powered them to multiple NFC West crowns, two Super Bowl appearances, and one championship, but in recent years, they’d become a liability. Their run game was predictable and uneven and kept them from optimizing Russell Wilson’s MVP-caliber play. Their defense was too simple and no longer had the horses necessary to stop the changing wide-open nature of NFL offenses. This year—to the detriment of the rest of the NFL—they adapted. The result is a Seahawks team that is more dangerous—and aggressive—than they’ve been in years.

INJURY REPORT

The biggest news from last week is that Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (high-ankle sprain) will both miss this game, as both got injured on what could have easily been their last plays of the game before they were pulled for rest. Wilson was put on IR. Deebo has an outside shot at being back for the Packers game, but given the short week and Thursday night game time, that may be a stretch… the practice window has been opened for three guys on IR: K’Waun Williams, Tevin Coleman, and Jordan Reed. Each of them practiced this week in some capacity and could be back either Sunday or for next Thursday’s game. Of the three, K’Waun seems the most likely to return against he Seahawks… both Kwon Alexander and Jimmie Ward were limited participants on Thursday so they at least have a shot… as of Thursday, neither Jaquiski Tartt or Richie James have practiced this week. Thus, neither seem likely to play… as for the rest of our IR and PUP List gang, no one seems likely to return until—at earliest—the bye week… lastly, Jordan Willis cleared his COVID tests after the trade and will be suited up on Sunday.

OFFENSE

Gone are the predictable run-first sets on early downs as the Seahawks finally gave in to internet pressure (and appeals from their quarterback himself) to unleash Russell Wilson’s scrambling deep ball magic early and often. After ranking 26th in pass likelihood on first and second downs last year, they’re now the single most pass-heavy team on early downs. The result is an offense ranked 2nd in DVOA and 4th in passing DVOA that is finally maximizing its talent.

Wilson is playing the best football of his career. By now we well know his “scramble around then throw comebacks and sideline stop routes” ability, but he’s also throwing his breadbasket deep balls at a greater efficiency than ever. Aiding him is a pass catching group that excels at the scramble drill and one-on-one matchups. Tyler Lockett has slid smoothly into Doug Baldwin’s shoes as a perennially underrated threat who gets slippery separation on all three levels. DK Metcalf has continued to grow into his incredible physical talents and is at his best on the deep balls and broken plays that align so well with Wilson’s game. 

In the run game they continue to rely on bludgeoning interior runners—led by Chris Carson—and a straight forward zone scheme that creates double teams and tries to punish teams on the inside if they show light boxes. Unsurprisingly, their new commitment to throwing the ball has opened up lanes for their rushing attack as well. They currently rank 6th in rushing DVOA. However, they’re nearly as banged up as we are in the backfield, with their top three backs all questionable or worse for Sunday’s game. While it’s a pretty simple plug-and-play scheme on the ground, how a new back performs as a receiver and as a pass blocker could play a major role in how much we choose to blitz.

If there’s a weakness to this elite offense it’s—as always—the offensive line. While the unit has certainly taken steps forward this year they’re still one of the lesser pass blocking units in the league. To some extent that’s an acceptable issue for the Seahawks. They know Wilson will hold the ball and scramble away from rushers—two things that are naturally going to lead to more pressures. They also know that the NFL has called 41% fewer holding penalties thus far this year, a change that is advantageous for all offenses but particularly so for those with scrambling quarterbacks—who would otherwise give up some of their improvisational benefits for the drawback of putting linemen out of position and generating more holds. That being said, no one prefers bad blocking to good blocking, and while the Seahawks run one of the best and offenses in the league, if you control the line of scrimmage, you can cause problems. Two weeks ago, the Vikings—without their top pass rusher—would have beat them handily if not for back-to-back Kirk Cousins turnovers fueling a two-minute span in which the Seahawks scored 21 of their 27 points.

Schematically, the Seahawks are simpler than you’d expect for such an explosive offense. They throw the deep ball as much as anyone, but this isn’t the Chiefs where they’re running guys in motion and scheming dudes open down the field from exotic formations and route combos. To put it in its simplest forms, Seattle basically runs the single most effective game of three-flies-up known to man.

Take a look at these three frames on go routes (true go routes, not back shoulder fades) from the past two Seahawks game. Can you tell which two were completed and which one was picked off?

Is it this throw against inside-out double coverage and both defenders in great position?

How about this one, with Patrick Peterson stride-for-stride down the field?

Or this one where the DB is a full two yards further down the field than the receiver?

So do you know which one’s were big gains and which one was a pick?

No, you do not, because in none of these frames are any of these receivers remotely open at the time Russell releases the ball. And it’s not like they’ve caught a DB on their heels and this is an unflattering freeze frame before they’re about to breakaway. They often stay this well-covered through the catch point.

FWIW, the first frame saw Buddha Baker randomly lose the ball in the air while on inside coverage, spin in a circle and stop, allowing a touchdown. The second saw DK Metcalf cut off his route and Patrick Peterson run under the pass for an easy pick. The third saw the cornerback totally lose the ball in the air and get mossed for a 40-yard gain.

One of the reasons the Seahawks are so dangerous is because they never shy away from throwing these kinds of heavily contested balls. Everyone on the roster is physical at the catch point and excels at tracking deep balls and Russell is the king of the forty-yard teardrop. They know that a lot of DBs struggle to play the ball deep down the field, that Wilson’s accuracy and arc will make it hard for defenders to do any better than knock down the pass, and that a spot foul defensive PI is way more common than the other way around. So they throw these 50/50 balls throughout the game, knowing that their QB-WR combo can shift the math in their favor and that the sheer quantity of their attempts will result in some massive gains. When you defend the Seahawks deep ball you have to defend it all the way through the catch point.

The Hawks make a killing off of deep throws (well-covered and otherwise) and improvisation. They’re not schematically complex, choosing instead to let Wilson buy time and find receivers if nothing’s initially open. If you can cover them down the field and pressure Wilson in a way that reins in his ability to gain yardage on the ground and create scramble drills, they don’t have much of a short game to speak of. But doing that means sticking with two very difficult marks at receiver and winning through the catch point. 

We’ll certainly try to win on the interior against their run game and play over-the-top of everything deep, but it will be interesting to see how Saleh chooses to deploy blitzers. On one hand the speed of our linebackers could accelerate Wilson’s decision-making and take him out of scrambling situations that naturally favor his wideouts, but if we don’t get home with regularity we’d be opening up YAC potential on their dump-off passes—giving the Seapenises a short game that they otherwise may lack. 

Showing different pressure looks, even if we’re mostly dropping back into disguised coverages, will likely be on the docket, and ensuring we maintain gap integrity will be key given Wilson’s ability to create on the ground. Disguising coverages on the back end is a big part of any week’s game plan but will be particularly important this week in order to slow up Wilson’s deep ball reads and force checkdowns that we can rally up to. We’re not going to shut down the Seahawks offense, but if we can take away the explosive plays and minimize the backbreaking scramble drill conversions on third downs, we can limit efficiency by taking them out of their offensive comfort zones. 

DEFENSE

If the Seahawks’ offensive shift was predicated on the release of Russell Wilson, their defensive shift is built off the addition of all-purpose safety Jamal Adams. Since his acquisition, the Seahawks have moved further away from their Cover 3 base defense than ever before. Last year, the Seahawks lined up in base personnel (three linebackers) a league-leading 67% of snaps—which is an absurd stat considering (a) it was 2019, (b) they played the 11-personnel-dominant Rams and Cardinals twice a year, and (c) their linebackers were not that great in coverage to begin with. Now they’re leaning more towards nickel and dime packages, largely because Adams quite literally plays everywhere on the field.

Here are Adams’ snap counts based on alignment throughout the first three weeks of the season (he’s been out with injury since then). As you can see, he quite literally plays everywhere.

The result of Jamal Adams’ versatility is a defense that is more multiple and athletic than in previous years and much more capable at blitzing from the secondary—an Adams specialty. While the extra blitzing hasn’t really led to a better pass rush (we’ll get to that later), Adams’ presence near the LOS has helped them defend the run. The Seahawks started the season by holding the Falcons, Patriots, and Cowboys all under 73 yards rushing. While they followed that up by most recently allowing 201 to the Vikings and 159 to the Cardinals, they’re still rated 9th in rushing defense DVOA and will surely perform better if Adams returns this week. Adams was expected to return this week, but given that he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday due to illness, his return is questionable.

However, when it comes to defending the pass, this is one of the worst units in the NFL. Shaq Griffin is regularly considered a top tier corner and an ESPN poll of coaches and evaluators named him and Quinton Dunbar the ninth-best cornerback duo in the NFL. Consider me skeptical that a unit allowing nearly 370 yards passing has two of the best cornerbacks in the league. Griffin flashes but has never looked like a true no.1 to me and Dunbar—who was PFF’s 2nd-best corner in 2019–has seen a major drop off in play after he moved over from Washington. To be fair, they’re not a bad duo, but again, 370 yards passing per game... None of their non-Adams safeties have done all that well in coverage and Bobby Wagner, while still a stud in the running game, is only average defending the pass. There are matchups to be had in the passing game. 

Some of their issues in pass defense stem from a defensive line that has struggled to generate pressure. Despite having one of the league’s worst pass rushes last year, the Seahawks let Jadeveon Clowney walk in the off-season—believing that their young DL would develop as rushers. That hasn’t been the case. In response the Seahawks have turned more towards blitzing, and—while they’re no longer a bottom 5 unit like last year—they’re still a bottom 10 group when it comes to generating pressure. While they just made an unfortunately good trade for Carlos Dunlap, he won’t be through COVID protocols by Sunday so he won’t be playing.

The difficulty in this game will be balancing the need to target the Seahawks’ clear defensive weaknesses—their passing defense—with the need to stay balanced with the run game to optimize our own passing attack. If Deebo were able to play, I’d say we pound dat ass in the run game just as we did the past two games but with a touch more alley-hitting passes and play action shots to keep them honest. However, with Deebo and Mostert/Wilson out that means we’re missing both the horizontal stretch that has helped lighten boxes the past two weeks, and the sledgehammers who’ve punished teams when they did so. 

Brandon Aiyuk can replicate some of Deebo’s ability in the run game, but relying on him too much on fakes and touch passes will diminish his value down the field. Perhaps formation and motion games paired with misdirection will be enough to keep our ground-and-pound offense humming without taking Aiyuk off the line of scrimmage—after all, the Vikings run a similar base scheme as us and bludgeoned this defense for 200 yards despite missing Dalvin Cook for half the game—but it would be optimistic to think we’ll be able to do that without at least some Aiyuk some in the run game and an uptick in passing attempts and efficiency. In short, dudes will need to get open, our OL will need to actually do some dropback passing, and Jimmy G will need to complete passes down the field.

Kendrick Bourne, who‘s taken a backseat in terms of pass game involvement with Deebo and Aiyuk in play, will certainly need to step up in Samuel’s absence. With Richie James potentially out as well, this is a game where Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, or even (gasp) Kevin White may have to step up in the passing game. Regardless of who’s playing out wide, I’d expect George Kittle to be moved all over the place and heavily involved in the running and passing games. With Deebo down and us likely to pass, this feels like it could be a throwback target share performance for the people’s tight end.

However we do it, the most important thing on offense is to control game flow as best we can with long drives that tire out the Seahawks defense and keep their offense off the field. Teams that rely heavily on big plays often suffer more from lengthy downtime and a lack of touches. Both the Vikings and the Cardinals controlled the ball and dictated game flow in spurts against the Seahawks and Seattle’s offensive efficiency suffered as a result.

This is a very good Seahawks team, but their last five games have been decided by single scores; four of those came down to the final play. While one of the front-runners for the Super Bowl, Seattle is not a juggernaut, and if we contain their explosive plays and control game flow, we can put ourselves within a half game of the NFC West lead on Sunday. Two weeks ago that would have seemed absurd. Now, it’s a very real possibility.

Go Niners 👍🏈