49ers 33, Patriots 6

Ruining fantasy lineups, one trucked defender at a time [Maddie Meyer/Getty Images]

It’s rare that you see a Bill Belichick team get absolutely man-handled on both sides of the ball, but that was the case—both schematically and in execution—on Sunday. Holding penalties and a Garoppolo pass that sailed in the first half were the only things that slowed down our offense, which didn’t punt until late in the fourth quarter when giving-a-shit time had long since passed. Defensively, we held Cam Newton to under 100 yards passing and picked him off three times en route to a QBR of 3.5 and a third-quarter benching. 

The 467-to-241 yardage advantage was the single biggest differential in any game this season, and the 33-6 loss was the worst home loss in Belichick’s two-decade history helming the Pats. While this is far from a vintage Patriots team, it’s an impressive win nonetheless. It also sets up a high-stakes showdown with Seattle next week.

OFFENSE

For two straight weeks, Shanahan was dealing from the jump, pouncing on the Patriots on the very first drive and seamlessly adjusting the attack as the Patriots tried to mix things up with—among other things—flirtations with the same 6-1 that hounded our schematic cousins in LA two Super bowls ago. To state the obvious, the defensive adjustments didn’t work.

Forced Edges: We’ve talked at length about the need for the Niners to force the issue on the edge, finding ways to get their speed outside regardless of defensive alignments. While we spent the first weeks of this season employing tosses, pin-and-pull sweeps, and crack blocks out of condensed sets to get into the alley, the return of a healthy Deebo has seen two new developments over the course of the past two wins: touch passes and designed swing passes.

Considering the past two games have seen us rush for a combined 319 yards and four touchdowns—plus an additional 122 yards and one score on touch passes and designed swings—it’s safe to say the additions have worked.

MOAR gaps!: A quick primer on run gaps.

The letters in red (A, B, C, etc.) are the run gaps for the offense. The lines in yellow are the run fits or gap assignments for the defense. As you can see if you look at the right side of the formation, as each player is added there’s another gap to defend—theoretically ad infinitum as the only limit to the number of gaps is the number of players and the space of the field itself.

What Shanahan has done with the additions of touch passes and designed swings is add “phantom gaps” well outside the tackle box and developed methods of getting the ball into the hands of speedy skill guys with the longest handoff in the playbook—the swing pass.

Let’s take the touch passes for example:

Aiyuk (bottom of screen, his path in blue) is going in motion and getting the ball on a touch pass heading right. While the offensive line shows power left, Aiyuk will bolt to the alley behind a lead block by Juice and a belief that the linebackers in the box will be frozen enough by the action that Laken Tomlinson and Mike McGlinchey will be able to climb up to the second level and seal them inside.

Here’s the same play from the EZ view at the snap of the ball. As you can see the backfield action is very confusing. While the movement of the line—in particular the pulling guard—and the look in the backfield implies a same-side power left, which freezes the two flat-footed linebackers in the box. This allows Tomlinson and McGlinchey to climb up to the second level and seal both players inside, a block which would be incredibly difficult without the seconds-delay caused by the power action the opposite way.

If you notice, Chase Winovich—the Patriots’ top edge rusher—gets ole’d by McGlinchey. It’s easier to see in the video, but McGlinchey feigns a fire out punch like he’s trying to block him head up off the snap. As Winovich leans forward to engage, McGlinchey simply slips away and let’s him go, resulting in Winovich falling on his face and taking himself out of the play.

This edge defender will most often go unblocked in this kind of “naked” run, as the idea is that the run action away and the speed of the fly sweep motion will allow our ballcarrier to get past him before he can make a play. But in order to ensure that and prevent the defensive end from jumping the snap and blowing it up or stringing the run out further than we’d like, Shanahan has McGlinchey take a half-second to feign a run block punch, before slipping outside to climb to second level.

To me, this is the equivalent of creating a “phantom gap,” or another hole to run through that isn’t apparent pre-snap, outside of the line of scrimmage. The true “edge” of this play is in the alley, and Juice—who we’ll talk more about later—destroys his man to clear space for Aiyuk. With McGlinchey and Tomlinson both neutralizing their defenders, Aiyuk has a clear runway to use his speed, which he scampers down for a twenty yard gain.

But as teams start to respect the threat of this kind of touch pass/fly sweep action, the concept can become less effective—particularly because the motion acts as a potential indicator that it may be coming. To counteract that, Shanahan hands the ball off to the back while faking this look, timed up a hard count off the motion early in this game that caused an overeager Patriots player to jump offsides, and deployed the designed swing pass as an extra layer of misdirection.

Here is one of our designed swing passes, which—pre-snap—looks exactly like one of our touch passes, which looks exactly like one of or inside runs with fly motion. The offensive line is going to fake zone right, with Trent Williams working to seal on the second level, while Deebo goes in motion. In essence the Niners are faking touch pass to Deebo, faking handoff to the RB, and then throwing back to Deebo—the same guy we faked to first. This play not only relies on our misdirection but the fact that we’ve put lots of fly sweep looks on tape and it’s something that the Pats know they have to defend.

Here it is from the EZ angle again, but now from the defense’s perspective. As you can see, there’s a lot of confusion on what’s going on. At this point, Jimmy has snapped the ball right in time for it to be a touch pass, and is faking the handoff to the RB while the line blocks like it’s zone right.

Once again the linebackers are flat-footed, playing their inside run responsibilities first; once again, a would-be very difficult edge block from Trent Williams is made much easier by the linebackers’ hesitation; and once again, we’ve left the Patriots’ top edge rusher unblocked.

Not blocking the defense’s top defensive lineman is a staple of option football, which we’ll discuss a bit more later. The basic premise being, if someone is that hard to block, why not just not block him in the first place? Instead, you choose to put him in a bind where he has to make a decision and then you make him wrong.

In this case, Winovich sees the fly motion and stays wide, knowing that he’ll need to really outflank Deebo to stop him from getting the edge while in a full sprint. However, as the smoke clears…

Winovich realizes that Deebo doesn’t have the ball. Now, does he try to slide down the line and play cutback from an inside handoff? Or does he realize it’s a play action pass and rush Garoppolo. Unfortunately for him, the “best” play is the one that he is now totally outmatched and out of position to accomplish—guarding Deebo Samuel on the swing pass in space.

Meanwhile, our two guys out wide are playing optimal blocking angles and having the best blocker lead the way. Therefore, KB has cracked down on the slot while Kittle loops outside—a combo that can easily look like a slant-wheel route combination—and leads up on the cornerback.

Again, two me this is another “phantom gap,” only this time it’s two would-be gaps outside of the line of scrimmage. By the time Winovich realizes what’s going on it is far far too late. Deebo has out-flanked him to the sideline, has a caravan of three blockers, and can barrel his way down the field for a gain of 23 yards.

If that edge blocking reminds you of something, it’s probably because it’s the same exact look we often run on our crack lead tosses from under center.

This is one second in to what would eventually be an 80-yard Mostert TD on the first play of the game against the Jets. KB has motioned furthest outside but isn’t blocking the corner. Instead he’s pressing the corner vertical then blocking second level inside on the safety, leaving the corner to be blocked by our better blocker—in this case, Juice.

Both instances create a running back or a running back-in-receiver’s clothing (Deebo) running full speed in space on whoever the last DB is to get to the party. Even if said DB is a willing tackler, we’ll take that matchup nine times out of ten. That’s why I consider the touch passes and designed swings a run game extension into “phantom gaps.”

These schemes not only press the defense by forcing its secondary to play perfect “run fits” across the field while in space, but they also allow the Niners to pair a traditional handoff look with a “run equivalent.” It’s the older version of the now-constantly-mentioned run pass option (RPO), the run-run option. Aka, option football but updated for the modern NFL and without Jimmy G getting killed as a run threat.

The idea of adding gaps along the boundary through misdirection tied to “long handoffs” isn’t actually a new concept. In terms of its function and the stresses it puts on a defense, these plays are closest to something between a Wing T triple option and—somewhat ironically—the bubble screens and fly sweep handoffs popularized by shotgun spread-to-run rushing attacks such as Chip Kelly’s at Oregon.

So why do these touch passes and designed swings work and not suck like everything else from the Chip Kelly regime? First off, we don’t run them every third play—they’re a mix-up that Shanahan employs judiciously and from a variety of different personnel groups and formations. While teams sniffed out Kelly’s schemes in part cause he was so adamant about running few concepts out of even fewer looks, Shanahan’s offense is the polar opposite of that. Secondly, they utilize motion that creates misdirection, gives gap advantages on the front side, and allows the receiver to get a full head of steam as he reaches the line of scrimmage. Even if you see motion and are expecting a touch pass, the Niners could run inside on a handoff, throw the swing, or bend back the motion the other way on the snap of the ball. Third, we’re not pretending Jimmy G is gonna pull a keeper around the edge. Kelly’s concepts required at least the threat of a QB pull off an option handoff to open up the run and pass game. When teams realized they didn’t have to give a shit about a Blaine Gabbert keeper, they were able to shut it down. Shanahan’s offense threatens run, run equivalent, and play action pass—in short, no one’s scared of a Jimmy G keeper, but the idea of a quick pass to Deebo or Aiyuk or Kittle? That’s a problem. 

100% Fresh-Squeezed: Juice showed up prominently on the stat sheet (for a fullback) with 18 yards rushing, another 18 receiving, and a TD on the ground, but his flexibility was on greatest display when he wasn’t getting the ball.

We’ve talked ad nauseam about how much the Niners love 21 personnel because of—among other things—the rare two-way ability that both George Kittle and Juice possess as receivers and blockers, but this game was probably the best display of that to date. 

Juice did damage as a traditional fullback blocking in the box or moving outside to bowl over cornerbacks, he was a quick-hitting foil when the Patriots started committing too heavily towards the outside—like on his touchdown run—and showed off his unique skill set as a blocker and a receiver while split out wide.

When Juice lined-up or motioned out wide he could (a) pull a linebacker in man coverage out of the box to give us room to run inside, (b) crack block into the box with a bigger bodied guy to seal the edge, (c) block the heads-up cornerback where he clearly had an advantage, or (d) seal or crack the slot corner to protect initial pressure when running outside.

That last part was on display in our swing game, where Juice was the primary blocker on the two other swings we ran against the Patriots.

Like in our stretch game—where the offensive tackle hooking the edge is the most important block—Juice’s block in the slot ensures that we have an excellent space blocker on the one defender who could blow this play up if he reads and reacts quickly enough. While the swings are a wide extension of our edge running game, Juice operates as a wide extension of what an offensive tackle or tight end would be doing. He seals the edge on the play’s critical block.

Our offensive identity has been cemented: we are a run-heavy attack that threatens you on the edges in every way imaginable then—when you cheat outside to stop it—attacks the vacated space by pounding you between the tackles and popping short-to-intermediate alley-killers. If the game against the Rams was our offense’s initial form, this was our Wartortle-esque second evolution. While hopes ride on a foil Blastoise in the near future, Shanahan will have to pivot again with Deebo out for at least the next game.

DEFENSE

Another big win for Robert Saleh, whose scheme and ability to teach-up and prepare his players continues to shine despite a variety of missing pieces. I feel like I’m selling the work that he’s done short based on the small amount of room I’m giving to his unit, but this write-up is already far far too long as is. 

Back-to-forward defense: While our defense was built from front-to-back—prioritizing the defensive line as a means of disrupting passing games—our defensive resurgence in the past two weeks has relied heavily on our back seven. 

Despite our banged up secondary missing four of its five starters, we blanketed the Patriots receivers and held the Pats to under 150 passing yards despite little pressure until the waning minutes. That’s one thing against a noticeably-off Cam and a Patriots receiver corps whose number one threat was covered by our middle linebacker on occasion, but a week ago we were similarly stout against one of the most potent passing offenses in the league.

Film study, disguising looks, and the tremendous coverage ability of our linebackers have played a big part in that. So has the fact that both Goff and Newton showed up wildly inaccurate on game day. All that said, less of a pass rush means your team has to cover longer and win more battles at the catch point, and our defensive backs have done a good job of winning those matchups, deterring passes with excellent coverage, and—alongside our linebackers—tackling very well in the open field. Even in a year when we’re running at far less than full strength, all of the above bodes well for our chances both this season and in the future. 

Gap Discipline: While our defensive line hasn’t been getting home very often, they’ve done a tremendous job of maintaining gap discipline in the past two weeks. While that may not be the most important thing against someone like Jared Goff, the fact that the Niners held Cam Newton to a season-low 19 rushing yards on five carries is a major positive towards our ability to slow up running quarterbacks.

Even without someone like Bosa hand-slapping his way around the edge or DeFo knifing through the interior, excellent gap integrity can create a type of pressure on its own. A wall of defenders crunching down a quarterback’s personal space is the literal namesake for the term “collapsing the pocket” and that kind of team rush can do just enough to throw off a quarterbacks timing or accuracy—even if its unlikely to result in a sack. 

While 12 sacks on the season and a bottom 10 adjusted sack rate is a sharp decline from last year’s shitting-of-pants-inducing pass rush, we are not totally neutered in the pressure department. While not adjusted for competition, we still rank 5th in pressure percentage and 9th in QB knockdown percentage. That’s a far cry from where we were last year, but—like our recent showings in coverage—it’s a positive sign for the remainder of the year and a potentially great sign for future seasons with better health.

Sub Shoutouts: Speaking of a good sign for future seasons, Tarvarius Moore, in his first extended action since the beginning of last season, certainly didn’t seem to have any of the angle tackling issues that popped up in 2019. For Moore, the physicality and athleticism have never been in question, but he’s certainly improved his overall game as he was lights out on Sunday. To be a new starting safety with four career starts and not get targeted by the New England Patriots is an achievement in itself, and Moore was blanketing dudes down the field and crashing hard on shallow passes all day. A third-year player with one year left on his rookie deal, it’s always been a bit confusing as to what the Niners’ long-term plan is for Moore, but he certainly looks capable of a bigger role than as our dime back.

Along the defensive line, Kevin Givens continues to play really high quality ball and recorded his first career sack in the waning moments of the game. While it was on Stidham on the very last play of the game and against the Patriots’ backup guard, it’s nice to see him finally get rewarded for the good work he’s done in the trenches. He’s been looking very disruptive as of late and will have a major role moving forward, regardless of who else is healthy. 

As for Javon Kinlaw, there have been some rumblings that he’s been disappointing or that we need more from him as a pass rusher. While any bump in production would be nice, Kinlaw’s right where he was expected to be given the largely raw state in which he was drafted, the lack of a rookie minicamp or a preseason to hone his skills, and the fact that he was thrust into a bigger role than expected given injuries along the defensive line.

Defensive tackles rarely fire out of the gates as rookies. In the past five years, only two first-round tackles totaled over 3 sacks in their rookie seasons and both were highly polished and productive college players added to teams that were already loaded on the defensive line. It’ll take time, but Kinlaw has the size, strength, motor, and work ethic to project well, even if he doesn’t become a major impact player as a rookie.

With this win the Niners have cemented this much: they are—warts and all—a very good team. Are they a great team? Will they be able to beat one or both of the top two teams in the NFC within a four day span? Will the accumulation of injuries and ugly losses early in the season tank their chances at a playoff berth? Only time will tell, but the way this team has turned the corner in a season which easily could have been chalked up as an L due to circumstances outside of their control has been very impressive. And knocking off the NFL’s most dominant franchise of the 21st century in such overwhelming fashion is proof that we’re at least doing our best to position ourselves to take over their mantle.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 7 @ Patriots

The scariest part is after he sees no one downfield and tucks it [Steven Senne/Associated Press]

Opponent: New England Patriots (2-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/25
Location: Foxborough, MA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

Highlights from the Patriots look a lot different this year.

There’s no Tom Brady. No dink-and-dunk offense. No Donta Hightower or Patrick Chung. Oh, and also they don’t exist. The highlights that is. Cause there’s nothing attractive about the way these Patriots play football. And that—just like Bill Belichick’s wardrobe and the haircut of his Unabomber look-alike son—is all according to plan.

INJURY REPORT

Tests on Trent Williams lower leg showed nothing broken and that he avoided the dreaded high-ankle sprain. He sat out Wednesday but was limited at practice on Thursday. He’s more likely than not to play… Jaquiski Tartt has yet to be cleared to practice, but if there’s silver lining it’s that this matchup should play well into Marcell Harris’ strengths... Ben Garland and Raheem Mostert are out this week. Garland was placed on IR while Mostert—who was thought to be joining him—hasn’t yet been given that designation. Perhaps that means there’s hope for a recovery under three weeks? Or they’re just putting him on IR later this week... Jeff Wilson practiced limited this week. He’s probably likely to play given Mostert is out, Tevin Coleman won’t be back from injury by Sunday, and we haven’t added any backs... Dontae Johnson practiced in full as of Thursday… last we heard, neither Richard Sherman nor Dee Ford are expected back until, at earliest, after the bye (week 11)... after setbacks in recovery, Ronald Blair and Weston Richburg aren’t expected back until “around” week 13... no word yet on Jullian Taylor’s timetable. He tore his ACL around Thanksgiving last year so, given our luck, we can probably expect him back sometime in 2023.

NEW ADDITIONS

The plus side to our extensive injury list means there are plenty of interesting new roster additions :) [dies inside]

CB, Parnell Motley: Swooped off waivers after the Brian Allen fiasco that shall never be talked about again, Motley was a (mostly) three-year starter at Oklahoma, totaling 39 pass deflections, 6 forced fumbles, and 6 picks in his time in Norman. An UDFA this year, he played only special teams in two appearances for the Bucs but defensively projects as a developmental outside press corner. He has the productivity, functional length and athleticism, and physicality to develop into a potential contributor down the line, but he’ll have to clean up a whole lot of technique and holding issues for that to happen. He’s a stash for the future. In the present, he’s a special teamer. Or maybe we lose all our corners again and he starts next week. Hard to say.

DE, Jordan Willis: In an effort to somehow get worse than they already are, the Jets traded us Jordan Willis and a 2021 7th-round pick for a 2022 6th-round pick earlier this week. Drafted by the Bengals in the third round in 2017, Willis was quickly passed by fourth-rounder Carl Lawson and 2018 draftee Sam Hubbard. Dropped when the Zac Taylor regime took over, he’s been with the Jets ever since. Willis has battled injuries during his four-year career and has as many sacks (3) as he does teams that he’s played for, but he has intriguing present and future value considering the price tag.

Willis totaled 26 sacks in college and was the 2016 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording 11.5 as a senior at Kansas State. At 6-4 275 pounds he obliterated the combine, recording a 4.53 forty, 39-inch vertical, and 6.85 three-cone drill—athletic numbers that were only surpassed on the defensive line by current DPOTY candidate Myles Garrett. Despite the tantalizing numbers, a quick look at his tape makes me believe that he tests faster than he plays and that he lacks the fluidity and bend to ever run the corner as a speed rusher. But that doesn’t mean he can’t present value. In two of his four seasons, on over 500 defensive snaps, he’s graded out in the 70’s in PFF with solid two-way ability. Maybe he won’t beat anyone off the edge but there’s a role for guys who can play the run and generate the occasional pressure with power and inside moves. The Niners are banking that a change of scenery, under Kris Kocurek, on a team that doesn’t suck ass for the first time in his career will better maximize Willis’ ability. 

At best, Willis becomes a second-line guy for the future. At worst, he washes out from the team with his biggest impact being the restructuring of Laken Tomlinson’s contract that opened up the cap space to sign him. But if Willis can land somewhere in the middle and give us solid Dion Jordan-level snaps with our second group, that would give us a major boost to the pass rush. Not because of anything he’d necessarily be providing himself but because it would allow us to slide Arik Armstead inside on passing downs where he feasted (10 sacks) last year. 

TRADE DEADLINE STRATS

GET EXCITED! It’s the minutiae of business and finances in the NFL time. (ham horn)

At 3-3 and with two weeks left before the November 3rd trade deadline, our games against the Patriots and Seahawks will do a lot towards determining if our contention status. If we’re 5-3 and looking at Seahawks and Rams teams with two losses who we hold a tiebreaker over, we’re clearly back in contention. If we’re 3-5 and a solid four or five games behind Seattle then that’s another story.

Either way, I don’t really see us being big movers at the trade deadline, at least not along the lines of the big swing trades that people who follow the NBA too closely keep proposing (Alex Mack on an expensive expiring contract? OBJ still somehow? Sam D’Arnold for a FIRST ROUND PICK???).

Last year when we pulled the trigger on Emmanuel Sanders we were 7-0 and with a gaping hole at wide receiver. In retrospect it would have been irresponsible NOT to have gone after a wideout. We were a clear Super Bowl favorite with a single missing piece, and we were entering an off-season where we had very few key players on expiring contracts. Neither of those are the case now.

While we do have some major roster holes at the moment, those are due to injury, and the guys who are hurt are proven commodities largely locked up beyond this year. Last year, adding Sanders gave a jolt to a woefully undermanned receiving corps and helped develop Deebo and KB tremendously, but there was always the chance of retaining Sanders after the season—especially if the young guys hadn’t developed. This year, throwing out draft capital for a guy on an expiring contract like Ryan Kerrigan—who would be a guaranteed one-year rental—makes considerably more sense for someone like the Seahawks—who straight up lack edge rushers on their roster—than for us. Hedging the future for a season when we’re guaranteed to be missing major pieces—whether at 5-3 or 3-5—makes little sense.

Conversely, I wouldn’t expect a fire sale either. In general, dumping young talent when you’re bad is actually a bad idea in the NFL. Even if you don’t account for injuries or special teams, you’re regularly playing 30+ guys each week. You need depth, and if you’re the guy expected to make that turnaround, then you’d better start developing the back end of your roster with guys who can ball. Regardless, we’re not a bad team nor is our roster in bad shape. So there’s no fire sale incoming.

Lastly, we are absolutely broke. We couldn’t take on a big contract even if we wanted to and why oh why would we want to as we’re entering a COVID-affected cap year with contracts up on tons of our own free agents? As mentioned above, Laken Tomlinson had to restructure his contract in order to give us the cap space needed to trade for Jordan Willis… and Jordan Willis costs less than $600k against the cap. We are eating-ramen-in-sweatpants-in-college-and-then-being-surprised-when-that-turns-off-women-and-no-I-didn’t-just-fart-that’s-just-the-general-smell-of-my-existence poor. But didn’t we just restructure Dee Ford’s contract before the season to open up a ton of cap space? How do we now only have—per Spotrac—$4.5M left under the 2020 cap?

As is the case for most of our issues this year, this problem stems from injuries. Every NFL team has a maximum of 53 players on their active roster but only 46 dress for any given game. That gives you some leeway if someone is hurt as they can be made inactive. However, when you have more than that number hurt or you know someone will be out for a number of weeks, you often put them on injured reserve. Players on the IR don’t count as taking up a roster spot, so you put them there to be able to add a replacement. That will either be a player picked up off waivers (which costs money) or signed off the street (which costs money) or a practice squad promotion (which also costs money). Every time you promote a player from the practice squad to the active roster their pay rate bumps up from their practice squad rate to their NFL minimum (based on their number of accrued seasons). Assuming that player is on the practice squad minimum (they could be getting paid more), that would mean their salary increases by greater than four times.

We currently have—not including Mostert, who could go on IR later this week—a league-leading 14 players and approximately one quarter of our entire salary cap ($53M) stuck on injured reserve—plus an additional $6M on the PUP list. That’s a lot of roster spots to fill and that doesn’t even include the promotions for the multiple games missed by Jimmy G, Kittle, Mostert, Moseley, etc. etc. etc. Basically, our injury issues have been so severe that we’re paying for 15-20 additional players at any given time. While those players are on cheap contracts, the sheer number adds up. Thus, we are broke :(

If there’s any moves coming in the future, I’d expect them to be the kind of mini-transactions we saw with Jordan Willis. Deals that add back-end roster depth with a potential to help in the future and that prioritize ADDING 2021 picks. With the huge number of free agents we have up to bat this off-season, the expectation should be that we net a decent number of compensatory picks due to roster turnover—picks that won’t get realized until the 2022 draft. So, due to impending roster turnover, the year delay of likely comp picks, and the fact that we had FIVE TOTAL PICKS in last year’s draft, the Niners brass will likely prioritize adding picks in 2021.

Naturally, one way to add picks is to be sellers. There’s a chance that someone on an expiring contract could get shipped off to a contender to accelerate their comp pick return, but there’s not a lot of likely candidates. Ahkello Witherspoon gets floated every time anyone talks about Niners trades but are we in the position to trade cornerbacks right now? Also, it’s not without question that Witherspoon—given the impending turnover at the position and the Niners’ prioritization of familiarity within their system—is actually re-signed in the off-season to a cheap short-term deal (ala Jimmie Ward 2019). Perhaps Dante Pettis, who has been inactive for multiple games this year and still has two seasons left on a rookie deal. But what’s the market for a guy who hasn’t played in practically a year? If you get into veterans on expiring deals you could float the idea of Richard Sherman, as his ten years in the league means he could net us only a fifth-round comp pick, but he’s a captain who’s also on IR. Maybe K’Waun, one of the better nickel corners in the league? But he’s currently on a massive deal of a contract, would probably be a cheaper re-sign than someone like Sherm, and is also… on IR.

Again, this is purely conjecture, and the Niners’ salary cap situation, .500 record, and commitment to maintaining locker room chemistry likely means that if there are any other moves on the horizon, they’re more like Jordan Willis-level ones—with the 2021 draft and the 2021 season in mind.

OFFENSE

Gimme five if half of your season’s yardage was from a single game [Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire]

November 3, 2019 marked a monumental shift for two AFC Powers. For the upstart Ravens, their shellacking of the then 8-0 Patriots cemented themselves as a legitimate contender. While the Patriots would only win one more game by more than a single score before getting ousted in the Wild Card round and saying goodbye to their future Hall of Fame quarterback. But this wasn’t a changing of the guard so much as a wake-up call for Bill Belichick. He saw what John Harbaugh did in Baltimore and realized that it was indeed still possible to be a supremely run-heavy team in 2020, but only if you had a running threat at quarterback. 

In this year’s draft the Patriots selected zero receivers, two tight ends, two run-blocking offensive linemen, and signed former MVP Cam Newton off the street. In came the zone read and inverted veer concepts that you naturally add to your playbook when you have a 6-5 245-pound battering ram at quarterback. While the offense doesn’t rely as heavily on those option concepts as the Ravens, adding the threat of the QB run has opened up the rest of their rushing game.

Cam’s 11.5 carries per game—combined with tons of two-running back sets, reverses, and fly sweeps to anyone and everyone who could ever threaten to hit the edge—makes for a ground game that rides on the power of its offensive line and the incredible diversity of its rushing schemes. They can hit you with a fly sweep off a zone look, a quick pitch off motion away, a counter trey out of double tight, then an inverted veer keeper with a leading fullback all on the same drive. This makes for a considerably less explosive and exciting offense than Baltimore’s, but provides many of its other benefits. The power run game limits negative yardage and makes the Patriots more dangerous and more willing to go for it on fourth-and-short, the constant use of play action makes for much easier to read defenses and inflates passing statistics with easy completions, and that same play action means the offensive line can maul in the run game and rarely has to engage in drop back pass protection—where potential weak spots could be exposed. That’s the theory at least.

Through the air they’ve discarded much of the short-to-intermediate pinpoint timing routes that Brady thrived on for the better part of a decade in lieu of different high percentage throws. They still run their “long handoff” equivalent screens and work levels concepts over the middle off the field, but focus more on passing through play action—particularly on the concepts Cam is most comfortable with: floods, reading deep ball-to-shallow crossers, and deep outs and crossers that accent his arm strength while mitigating his quick recognition skills and accuracy.

Cam’s completion percentage is at an all-time high, but aside from the wild end to the Seahawks game (against one of the worst passing defenses in the league), he is still—as he’s been for years—an inaccurate passer who forces the ball into bad spots too often. He hasn’t made major strides since leaving the Panthers. The difference now is that the Patriots have done a good job of shaping the offense around the threat of his legs, making the passing game filled with concepts he’s comfortable with, and minimizing the load he needs to carry. Through four starts, Cam’s only thrown the ball more than 28 times once and completed more than 17 passes just as many times. As a team, they’ve only thrown for greater than 172 yards once. This is a low-volume, below average-efficiency passing attack.

Their wideout talent is middling at best—although this would have been a really nice game to have K’Waun Williams manning the slot. They gain very little separation and—with the exception of 2019 first-rounder N’Keal Harry—have little size as well. This is still the roster of tons of slot receivers that Brady would throw to on pivot routes and shallows, with Julian Edelman being the alpha dog and the closest thing to a No.1 receiver. He’s not to be underestimated and can pick you apart in the middle of the field, but—despite what everyone who has worn an Antoine Walker jersey out in public in the past ten years says—he’s no otherworldly talent. In the passing game, they’ll throw to their backs just as often as their wideouts and honestly those backs are probably just as dangerous. As long as we tackle well, we should have the speed on the second level to keep their YAC yards to a minimum.

This is an offense that’s ranked 27th in passing DVOA and 3rd in rushing DVOA. The scariest part of their passing game is Cam Newton scrambling. They’ll throw plenty of short passes to the flats to chip away at our Cover 3 and Quarters coverages, but they don’t have the personnel to kill us with that. The focus should be on stopping the run. With the sheer quantity of looks they have in the run game, the Patriots could find sporadic success outside, but I don’t think this team has the speed to regularly get to the edge against our defense. More likely, the crux of this matchup lies in stopping the Patriots’ QB option and interior run game. They’ve got a lot of size on the interior and run 21 personnel third-most in the league to get extra blockers and gaps with just enough misdirection to slow up reads on the second level. DJ Jones, Javon Kinlaw, and Kevin Givens will be important—and our linebackers will need to commit to their reads and quick trigger against the run. If our interior run defense looks more like it did the first four weeks and less like it did against the Rams, we’ll be in good shape defensively.

DEFENSE

A few Pro Bowls shy of a Head & Shoulders endorsement [Getty Images]

On defense, the Patriots aren’t nearly what they were a year ago but they’re still a Bill Belichick coached side that will play sound football and not beat themselves with mistakes. While the advanced stats paint a picture of an average unit, this is a bend-don’t-break defense that is opportunistic in creating turnovers. It—like the rest of this team—does a good job of mitigating risk and keeping the Patriots within striking distance regardless of opponent. 

The Pats run a man coverage-heavy, multiple 3-4 that stresses versatility in their front seven so that they can be flexible in shaping their front based on their opponent. While COVID opt-outs from Donta Hightower and Patrick Chung have sapped some name recognition from this defense, they still have a number of plus performers and—just as importantly—few genuine weak spots. Everyone, even their lower-end roster types, at least does their job. Second-year edge/linebacker Chase Winovich has emerged as their go-to pass rusher while they get the majority of their other pressure off of schemed up fronts similar to the ones we saw—and were depressingly effective against us—two weeks ago versus Miami. Last year’s DPOTY Stephon Gilmore has had a down year but is still a top tier corner, while JC Jackson opposite him has emerged as a potential star. Devin McCourty brings his typical strong veteran play to free safety. 

Through Belichick’s decades-long reign of terror, the Patriots defense has been known for presenting wildly differing looks from week-to-week, with schemes made specifically to take away what you do best. But more accurately, they want to take away whatever you rely on most. They effectively clamped down the Raiders and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks by using a variety of coverages and alignment bluffs to limit their high-volume star tight ends from being the offense’s primary chain-mover. I’d expect the same sort of looks on George Kittle, as well as wide edges and a variety of fronts that are made to stop our stretch game. 

In guarding Kittle, the Patriots may chip with their edges or linebackers but they’ll use their rotating crop of safeties as their primary coverage guys. Kittle presents an athleticism and speed advantage that neither Waller nor Kelce possess, but it will be tough sledding with the amount of shit they’re gonna throw at him. While Kittle always needs to be a big part of our gameplan, it would be smart if we have counterattacks set up with our other playmakers. Bunch formations, motions, and condensed sets are always on the docket against man coverage and could provide an added bonus in opening up some edge space for our running game as well. 

Against our run game the Patriots will rely on power, scheme, and alignment to offset their lack of speed. They are not a fast defense. Regardless of the fronts they show us, we should push the issue outside and find ways—whether it’s with tosses, condensed sets with crack blocks, and/or reverses—to get our speed advantage out on the edges. Using motion and alignment to clear out the edges for sweeps and reverses should also be in play given the Patriots’ commitment to man coverage. This strategy would have been way cooler with the unreal speed of Mostert in the lineup, but it should remain the game plan nonetheless. Expect Deebo Samuel to get his name called in the running game again this week and every week moving forward.

This game could be an absolute slog. This is the weakest Patriots teams in years, but it’s still the Patriots—they thrive on your mistakes and we’ve had a lot of those to date. It’s also worth noting that their losses have been to the Seahawks in a shootout, the Chiefs while starting Brian Hoyer, and to the Broncos after a week where they had minimal in-person practice due to COVID. This is a team that’s better than its 2-3 record. If we minimize mental errors and turnovers we matchup well, but we have to do that for all four quarters. Otherwise this is a Pats team that thrives on hanging around into the fourth and pulling out opportunistic victories.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 24, Rams 16

The only completion thrown towards Verrett all night [Scott Strazzante/The Chronicle]

The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.

With their backs against the wall, the Niners turned in an absolutely masterful game plan on Sunday night. While the execution wasn’t perfect—those two third down drops and the Juice overthrow made the game more interesting than it had to be and Cooper Kupp had some chances that he didn’t convert—it was more than enough to close out the Rams with only a few heart palpitations. 

The win also keeps us very much in the running for the playoffs.

OFFENSE

The Niners found an offensive identity on Sunday and it looked a lot like the one we had to finish last year: a diverse, run-heavy game plan with tons of misdirection, a commitment to forcibly out-leveraging the defense on the edges, and a passing attack that got the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly on short-to-intermediate passes.

Our opening drive was a Shanahan Special—accomplishing our goals of minimizing drop back passing, making the defense run side-to-side against our run and screen game, and using misdirection to prevent them from keying any one concept too heavily. We went scored on a six-play 84 yard drive; those plays were outside run, fly sweep, inside run, screen, screen, fly sweep. 

At first look, our newfound commitment to the run game seemed to be a case of quantity over quality—our raw stats showed 37 carries for 122 yards on a mediocre 3.3 yards/carry. But if you exclude the two kneel downs to end the game and add in the shotgun fly sweeps—which count as touch passes in the box score—our line was 39-185-1TD on a healthy 4.7 yards/carry. 

By jumping out to a lead and controlling game flow, our offense was able to stay varied throughout the game. We had 167 yards and two scores passing, 38 yards on screens, 124 yards on handoffs, and 63 yards, one touchdown, and a game-icing bulldozer of a first down on touch passes. That amounted to 390 yards of offense and 24 points against a Rams defense that came into the game ranked 7th in Defensive DVOA.

Jimmy “Greatly Inflated Stats But I’ll Take It” Garoppolo: Despite a bum ankle and a game plan built to protect him, Jimmy G—save the one overthrow of Juice—did nearly everything we could have asked from him. His accuracy and zip weren’t there on every throw and we didn’t ask him to handle too large of a burden, but his career-long streak of never losing two starts in a row continues, and he comforted a lot of very very anxious 49ers fans on Sunday. It’s still TBD on whether he and this passing attack can get to the point where they can succeed in mandatory drop pack passing situations; thus, it’s still TBD on whether he’s the QB of the Niners after this yea. But it’s a good first step towards both under less-than-ideal conditions.

Appropriately Aggressive: Outcome be damned, I’ve liked Shanahan’s more aggressive lean in crucial situations this season—even if the fourth down TD to Kittle was one of the first times it’s actually paid off. 

Trying to score before the half against the Dolphins made sense, even if it led to a Jimmy G pick. “Regrouping at halftime” when down twenty and with Miami set to receive is an excellent way of losing by less but doesn’t do much to help you win. The game is about possessions and opportunities for points. The same goes for our fourth-and-short attempts near midfield against the Dolphins and on the goal line against Arizona—even if we converted neither of them. Critique the play-calls all you want, but going for it was the right decision. 

While this slight shift in aggressiveness may not be paying off in full quite yet, it’s a good sign of things to come. A team that excels at running the ball (which hopefully, we can consistently be) becomes considerably more dangerous if they’re willing to go for it on fourth-and-short. Not only because their run prowess could mean that they’re more likely to convert those fourth downs on the ground but because they—like we did in this game—can then run against light boxes on third downs to set-up those fourth downs in the first place.

Oddly Quiet Aaron: All-world DT Aaron Donald entered Sunday’s game in the league-lead with 7.5 sacks, but was oddly quiet throughout this contest. Part of that was game planning—as the Niners had no interest in calling drop back passes where Donald could potentially tee-off on our recovering quarterback—but appropriate props should go to Daniel Brunskill and Ben Garland, who were admittedly the players the Rams had singled out as Donald’s would-be targets but stymied him all game. While there were plenty of double teams and other snaps where we chipped or bluffed a double team to throw Donald off, Brunskill in particular really held his own against the All-Pro defensive tackle—which is a great sign to see for the starting offensive lineman who’s struggled the most this season. The Rams entered this game leading the league with 20 sacks. The exited with 0 sacks and 3 QB hits.

DEFENSE

The Rams and their top 5 offense saw a stark drop in efficiency on Sunday night. While part of that could be attributed to Jared Goff’s streaky accuracy, we did a few things schematically to take him out of his comfort zone early and elicit those problems.

The Rams entered this game with the league’s #1-ranked rushing DVOA, so we committed from the jump to take away their outside run game. Both Arik Armstead and Kevin Givens—who has quietly played very well in his second year in the league—were disruptive on the interior, whiles free-running Fred Warner snuffed out everything that made it out of the tackle box for minimal gain. While the Rams would adjust and find success with their interior run game off of misdirections such as counters and other runs against flow, by the time they were doing so consistently, they were trailing by multiple scores. But we also did another thing that threw off the Rams’ rushing attack AND confused their passing game:

Hello old friend…

By loading the LOS we took away the Rams’ ability to double team in the run game, and—just as importantly—confused Goff’s pre-snap reads. By starting the game with tons of fronts like this—including five-man blitzes out of five-man fronts on the first two snaps—and man coverage on the backend, we pretty much dared Goff to beat us with the deep ball from the jump.

While this would seemingly be the worst possible plan against the high-flying Rams aerial attack, this year’s offensive shift towards a quick-release short-yardage passing game meant the Rams were wildly out-of-sync on downfield passes. And after an entire week spent prepping soft zone coverages and underneath passes, the Rams basically spotted us their first two drives—their only possessions of the first quarter—before they figured out what was happening. 

It didn’t help that Saleh was gaslighting them throughout the first half. After those first two snaps of man coverage and five-man blitzes, the Niners slowly shifted away from the former and quickly from the latter—rarely sending extra men the rest of the game. But by continuing to show those loaded lines, the Niners bluffed extra rushers and man coverage for most of the first half. They were able to do so because (A) they trusted their linebackers’ speed and ability to make up a lot of ground and still get in good position in coverage even when lined up on the LOS, and (B) they knew the Rams’ short-yardage passing game was based off of play action bootlegs and leak outs rather than the sort of one-step throws Jimmy G feasts on. Basically, they knew the Rams couldn’t beat them to the spot on quick-hitters so they were fine with starting in a position where they’d have to make up ground in coverage. So when Goff saw man coverage and extra rushers, he’d think deep shots or hot routes pre-snap only to see something entirely different once the play was underway.

For instance, that frame shown above—on third-and-eight—ended up being a four-man rush with a Cover 3 Mable variation on the back end. Both linebackers dropped off the LOS, taking away Cooper Kupp—Goff’s first read—and slowing him up just enough that he was a hair late on the curl, which allowed Verrett to break up the pass.

Cornerbacks, it’s nice to have them again: Speaking of which, Jason Verrett has been an absolute monster after stepping into the starting lineup. In three-and-a-half games (including three starts), he’s allowed a grand total of four catches for 24 yards while breaking up three passes and registering his first pick against the Rams. According to PFF, he’s graded out as the third-best among all corners in the NFL this season. Pairing him with the oft-underrated Emmanuel Moseley—who gave up a long TD late and was on the wrong end of a ticky-tack PI call but otherwise played a great game—gave us a formidable cornerback duo for the first time since week one. When Sherman returns in (what is hopefully) a week or two, it’ll be very interesting to see who starts and plays where, especially with K’Waun Williams out at least another few weeks. Regardless, you can never have too many good cornerbacks, and Verrett’s re-emergence has been one of the positives of this season and a great option to have as we move into an off-season where big decisions will have to be made at the position. 

Pass rush, it would also be nice to have again: While we held the Rams’ pass rush to 0 sacks and 3 QB hits, our defense tallied an equally underwhelming 0 sacks and 2 QB hits. To be fair, some of that seemed to be by design. While there’s no such thing as a game plan that would prefer to have LESS pressure on a quarterback—particularly one with Goff’s scrambling ability—the Niners purposefully blitzed less in lieu of more defenders in coverage. This made it harder for Goff to find open passing windows and mitigated potential damage from bootlegs, play action passes, and screens. It’s hard to claim the strategy didn’t work, but getting no pressure isn’t really a repeatable scheme. It would be really nice to get Dee Ford and Ronald Blair back as soon as possible.

Cold water / boner killer of the week: Unfortunately, this is 2020 and the Niners—just like the world— simply can’t have good things. We came away with an important victory but finished the game with four more starters shelved, two of whom are expected to be put on IR this coming week.

Raheem Mostert was once again one of the most impressive players on the field. But once again, we’ll be without him for at least the next few weeks after he suffered our team’s fourth high-ankle sprain. It should go without saying that having Mostert healthy is a major boost to our running game. Even PFF—who has him ranked the #1 running back in the entire NFL—thinks so. We all know about Mostert’s homerun ability—he has the two fastest ball carrier run times in the NFL this year despite missing the equivalent of three entire games and his top speed was the fastest of the past five years—but his work running for tough yards inside has been just as valuable. While McKinnon has played well in his stead and the rookie JaMycal Hasty continues to show a level of burst and vision that will make him harder and harder to stash on the practice squad for an increased role in 2021, Mostert’s explosive speed and power regularly net 5-to-7 yard gains out of runs that could have been stopped for 3-or-4. Those add up in a hurry. All we can hope is that he’s only shelved for the next three weeks.

Also going on IR is Ben Garland, who suffered a calf injury very late in the contest. With Weston Richburg not set to return from the PUP list until “around Week 13,” that means Hroniss Grasu will be taking over for the foreseeable future. Grasu is not nearly the athlete and run-blocker in space as Garland, but he at least held his own in his one start this year.

Jaquiski Tartt went down at some point in the second half with a groin injury and Marcell Harris replaced him at strong safety. Harris is a well-seasoned backup, but it would be real realllll chill if the checkup on Tartt’s injury came back positive. 

Finally, Trent Williams left the game with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, giving way to second-year man Justin Skule. Like Tartt, the team is currently unsure of the severity of the injury.

Injuries notwithstanding, there was a lot to be pleased about on Sunday night. Whether we can sustain that type of performance moving forward will be up to the team’s ability to withstand (yet another) wave of major injuries. At the very least it was a critical win against a division rival and a statement of our team’s identity. In a season like this, that’s something to build upon.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk6 vs. Rams

Q: Does playing possum work against the best player in the NFL? [Brad Mills/USA Today]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (4-1)
Date: Sunday, 10/18
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Time: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

Two men enter, one comes out. Welcome to the Thunderdome. The soft part of our schedule is over. Now begins our seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 26-7, including all of the NFC’s remaining unbeatens.

First up, the Los Angeles Rams.

While last year’s 9-7 Rams finished the season strong and would have been the last wildcard entrant under the new playoff format, it was a down year for what was the NFL’s darling just months prior. Now, with an updated offense and a brand-new defense, the Rams are one bad pass interference call away from an undefeated record. While all four of their wins have come against the NFC East, this is still a team that can make a claim as the most balanced—and perhaps even best—team in the NFC through five weeks. They are unquestionably our toughest test to date and will be an excellent barometer for what kind of season we’re still capable of having.

INJURY REPORT

As of Wednesday… Jimmy Garoppolo has practiced in full (last week he was only limited). He should start again this Sunday and hopefully—for all our sakes—will look and play much better… on the flip side, Kwon Alexander, who was just starting to play his best football of the season, suffered a high-ankle sprain (though I have no idea when). As a player who has to run a lot, that would keep him out an estimated 4-6 weeks. This means Dre Greenlaw slides into his spot and Azeez Al-Shair, whose had a few rough outings, will be our Sam linebacker... there was hope that we’d have our two top corners back this week. While Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) practiced no-contact on Wednesday and has a real shot to return based on how he finishes the last stages of the concussion protocol, Richard Sherman (calf) never even returned to practice after a setback at some point during his rehab. He is—for the third week in a row—hopeful to return next week. At least Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) was off the injury report on Wednesday and is good to go… I totally miscounted in the Dolphins recap. We’re now on week 6, meaning Ronald Blair, Jullian Taylor, and Weston Richburg are still at least one week away from returning.

OFFENSE

Sean McVay comes from the Shanahan offensive tree (even if he often gets credit for many elements of it), which means the Rams run lots of zone and stretch and rely heavily on play action passes. The key differences between our scheme and the Rams’ is that (a) they run considerably lighter personnel sets—choosing instead to have wideouts in bunch formations and condensed splits who do tight end/fullback roles rather than the other way around, (b) they rely much more on deep passes versus the short-to-intermediate game, and (c) their schemes are often simpler than ours—with the goal being to have a number of different run and pass plays that all initially look the same. While McVay was originally lauded for the simplicity of his system, the equally simple defensive solution of 6-1 fronts and quarters coverage puzzled the Rams for the better part of a full calendar year. So McVay spent the off-season trying to get his mojo back and added a few new wrinkles to mix things up.

Ted Nguyen from The Athletic had a great write up about the successful changes the Rams have made in 2020, but the basics are this: (1) using fly motion towards and against their run game to diminish tendencies and open gaps underneath, (2) stealing a lot of run game concepts that Shanahan used so effectively last year as mix-up to zone/stretch, (3) putting Jared Goff on the move a lot (like A LOT), and (4) throwing the ball less down the field—typically with split-field quick game or play action leak outs that hope to maximize yards after catch. In 2018, Goff averaged 8.8 intended air yards per pass. In 2017, that fell to 7.8. Through four games this season, he’s averaged 5.9 IAY/throw, which isn’t only the lowest in the league but the lowest since the stat started being tracked in 2016. So yeah, in short he fixed their offense by copying as much as he could from what Shanahan did last year and rolling out Goff a lot.

This simpler iteration of Shanahan’s offense has led to a major boost in the run game—the Rams are #1 in rushing DVOA through five weeks—and the three-headed tailback committee of Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson have helped Jared Goff to the best stretch of play in his career. Goff gets a lot of heat from people (some have even claimed that he’s playing well in part because the stadiums have no fans so McVay can more clearly talk to him and tell him where to throw the ball before the snap), but ultimately Goff doesn’t get the credit he deserves for the Rams’ hot start. When Goff is on, he’s really on and can throw the ball on all three levels with incredible accuracy—especially when he’s throwing deep or rolling out. When he’s off, he’s really off and can look totally lost—especially when he has to scan the full field quickly under pressure. Goff has always been a player of massive variance, but he’s yet to see those lows this year, and when the Rams have been able to move the pocket, work off play action and bootlegs, and in general avoid full-field dropbacks, he can (and has) been lights out. So naturally, our goal should be to not let him do those things.

This fact was no more apparent than the last time the Rams played the Niners, when McVay—in a move that was admittedly brilliant and has in part led to the Rams’ current offense—ran play action bootlegs on nearly every single pass play, even though the Rams’ rushing attack was floundering. This full-on commitment to play action paid dividends early in that game.

Here were the Rams’ offensive stats in the first half of last year’s week 15 matchup:

At halftime, Robert Saleh adjusted to have the Niners’ defensive ends play quarterback instead of cutback on bootlegs, tasked second-line defenders on blitzes to tie up backfield leak out options to take away easy passes, and the Rams’ bootleg hack was effectively neutralized. With Los Angeles having to resort to more stationary play action passes, Goff was less protected and had to read the middle of the field more. While he’d have some success out of empty gun sets—including on their only touchdown drive of the second half—Goff would finish the game with less than five completions out of true drop back passes.

It’ll likely be less simple this time around. The Rams run game is highly more effective this season, their added motion to or away from run action means we can’t cheat our bootleg-side defensive ends as aggressively, we’re down Bosa/DeFo/Ford, and Goff is simply playing much better than last year. That being said, the strategy should still be to force Goff into as many true drop back full-field reads as possible and pressure him when we do. 

If Moseley is back from injury, it’ll be very interesting to see who plays in the nickel this game. Jamar Taylor was no Brian Allen last week but he allowed nearly 100 yards receiving himself (the two combined for something like 214 I believe?). Witherspoon is a lankier guy and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him in the slot so would they bump Moseley inside in nickel packages to get their best three corners on the field? Or would they add Tarvarius Moore and roll him or Jimmie Ward down into the slot? Having capable slot play will be crucial against a squad that prides itself in its receiver depth and still runs 11 personnel 72% of the time. While our linebacker corps is tailor-made to play well against receivers who are asked to do bigger bodied duties, there’s only so much base that you can play against three wide sets and that number decreases with Kwon out of the lineup.

There will be equally as much pressure on our re-made defensive line to have a strong two-way performance. Our young interior has been mostly impressive against the run thus far. They’ll have to continue that level of play in order to help cloud up the inside and cutback lanes and allow our edges to—as odd as it sounds—play the bootleg honest. In the passing game the Rams OL is ranked in the top 10 in every pass-blocking metric imaginable; we’ll surely need to send some extra men to get home but that further complicates how we defend one of the league’s most dangerous screen games. In short, everyone in the front seven will have to be on their toes to win at the line of scrimmage and shrink Goff’s comfort zone.

Given the Rams’ offensive improvements and our defensive injuries, we should go in expecting McVay and Goff to have some success on Sunday. The key will be making them earn it via drop back passes, generating negative plays and turnovers, and clamping down while in the red zone—an area of the field where McVay’s teams have often struggled. We don’t have the horses to shut them down, but if our cornerback room gets just a bit healthier, we have the ability to do enough.

DEFENSE

The Rams were quick to boot Wade Phillips to the curb this off-season, as they believed they needed a fresh face that would challenge McVay in X’s and O’s. To find a defensive coordinator who fit the bill, ownership told their young head coach to “find your own Sean McVay.” While that’s the douchiest and most Los Angeles comment I’ve ever heard—and reminiscent of how Oprah decides lineups on her TV channel based on if people on the show “remind herself of herself”—the result of that search was Brandon Staley, a 37 year-old Vic Fangio protege. 

FWIW, I think Vic Fangio’s D—which could have been our D if the Bears hadn’t blocked him from interviewing to come back to run the defense under Shanahan—is the best in the business. I also think he was Shanahan’s top pick as DC but I obviously have no means of proving that. Which then also presents an alternate reality where Fangio has been made a head coach somewhere else and Staley is actually our defensive coordinator at the moment… (head explosion emoji). Anyways…

The Vic Fangio defense employs a 3-4 front that generates pressure with four but can bring blitzers if needed; its two-high quarters coverage gives tremendous flexibility and lots of help to corners or safeties so they can play above their means; its versatile fronts and personnel groupings wreck havoc on opposing blocking schemes; and in general it’s just very well-coached and takes away big plays as well as any defense. Granted, that’s what the Fangio defense looks like under Fangio. But early in his tenure, Graham’s unit has been impressive. 

The Rams have the flexibility to play three- or four-man fronts, largely because Aaron Donald—the best player in all of football—can line up anywhere along the line and have success. The rest of their front seven is made up of a smattering of assorted parts. Former first-rounder Leonard Floyd comes in from Chicago as their latest Dante Fowler-esque reclamation project. He’s got juice off the edge but has yet to make a major impact thus far. Opposite him is Samson Ebukam whose had a rough transition to the new defense. According to PFF, he’s ranked dead last—110th out of 110—amongst all edge defenders this year. 

At linebacker, the Rams take the same approach as the Eagles: they don’t value the position. Three years ago when they last time they totally disregarded the position they unearthed UDFA Cory Littleton, one of the top coverage linebackers in the league. Now he’s gone and they’re trying to replace him with two rookies. It has not gone well, although Troy Reeder—who played only 18 snaps prior to this Sunday—totaled 11 tackles, 2 for loss, and three sacks against the Racial Slurs. I have no idea if that means he’s about to break out or if it was a total fluke against a bad football team.

In the secondary, the Rams run almost entirely split-field coverages (although they do have a three-high safety look that I wouldn’t expect against us). Their safeties are good and their boundary corner play is very strong. That starts with Jalen Ramsey, one of if not the best corner in the league. While the Cover 2 Read system doesn’t require great cornerback play, Ramsey’s ability allows them to be more creative with their split-field coverages and not worry about isolated receivers opposite trips formations. He has the talent and athleticism that he gets to freelance a bit.

First thing’s first when you play the Rams: make sure Aaron Donald doesn’t single-handedly blow up your entire offensive game plan, which—given the massive struggles of our offensive line in pass protection—is not out of the question. If we can block him upfront, the rest of the rushers aren’t world-beaters, but—as evidenced by their eight sacks against Washington last week—they‘re far from inept in the pressure department. Running the ball early and often could help keep them at bay. This Rams team has the 3rd-best DVOA against the pass but is ranked 24th against the run—averaging a healthy 4.7 yards/carry through five weeks of play against largely subpar rushing attacks. We need the run game to be successful and to remain a viable option throughout this contest otherwise we’ll risk exposing our gimpy quarterback to some tough looks. The last thing we want is to get into a similar game flow as last week.

Like the Eagles, the Rams believe in finding linebackers cheap and via the draft, NOT paying them. Three years ago, scouting/luck led them to Cory Littleton emerging into one of the top coverage linebackers in the game. Now he’s gone and the new crop doesn’t look as promising. If we can establish the run game and have success in our heavy sets that will put their linebackers in a more compromised position in the passing game—where our talented tight ends and backs can work the middle of the field. Considering their talent on the boundaries, we should be able to find some success between the hashes as long as we can pull safety help via alignment and route combinations. We need to get our wideouts more involved, but—if possible—avoiding Ramsey unless absolutely necessary would be recommended.

The past two games have seen us go wildly off-script. Against the Eagles it was due to poor pass protection and poor execution by Nick Mullens. Against the Dolphins it was due to... well pretty much everything. But despite the past two performances, we’re far from a bad team and this doesn’t have to be a lost season. If we avoid the mistakes and negative plays that have plagued us this season and control game flow like we did last year, we can win this game. As stated before, the best teams’ down years are still playoff years. While I’m not sure the best teams have ever been as ravaged by injuries as we currently are, that should still be the standard, and winning a critical divisional battle to regain a positive trajectory would be a nice first step.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Dolphins 43, 49ers 17

The lasting impression from this game, no matter how hard you try to forget… [USA Today]

This one will be short.

While it’s unlikely our offense or defense ever looks worse than they did on Sunday—at least at the same time—we are fully behind the eight ball and dead last in the NFC West as we enter the toughest part of our schedule: a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 24-6—including three of the NFL’s five remaining unbeatens.

Our defense will get healthier, with key reinforcements arriving as soon as next week. Jimmy G will improve as his ankle does, although to what level of play remains a big TBD. We won’t look this bad again. But if we want any chance of making the playoffs, our passing attack will need to take exponential leaps forward, and we’re all out of bad defenses and bad teams that’ll let us make that progress at our own pace.

While it’s not worth spending too much time dwelling over or looking at what was—based on expectations—the single-most disappointing performance of the Shanahan era, public expectations have already started shifting towards a somewhat cursed down year. We’ll know within the next few weeks how much those expectations match reality.

OFFENSE

Jimmy “Goddammit Don’t Make Me Start Looking Up Film of Trey Lance In October” Garoppolo: It’s impossible to say how much the ankle injury led to what was almost certainly the least accurate performance of Jimmy Garoppolo’s career. While past subpar Jimmy G performances have largely centered around poor decision making leading to interceptions, it was Garoppolo’s wild inaccuracy that led to interceptions on Sunday. Was this an aberration due to injury? An ongoing trend that began week 1 against the Cardinals? It’s hard to say, but either way, this is a major prove-it year for Jimmy G.

Garoppolo is locked up through 2022 on a team-friendly average annual salary of $27.5M. As of now, he’s the 12th-highest paid quarterback in terms of AAV salary—$2M below Ryan Tannehill, $500K above Matthew Stanford—but that undersells his relative value. If you’re comparing Jimmy G’s value you have to first take away any starter on a rookie contract. The rookie wage scale depresses their value, and teams like the Ravens, Bills, and Cardinals are joining the $35M+/year club sooner rather than later while teams like the Browns, Broncos, and Racial Slurs have expensive decisions to be made shortly as well. So if we’re counting only veterans, there are just seven (and a half, if you count Nick Foles) veteran starting quarterbacks in the league who make a lower average annual salary than Jimmy Garoppolo; five of them make $25M+ a year, so they’re within a negligible $2.5M/year of Jimmy. The other two (and a half) are Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So while moving on from Garoppolo would be financially easy after this year (only $2.8M in dead cap in 2021), replacing him would be a much harder task. Let’s look at the options.

If they’re allowed to hit the open market, would you be willing to pay top dollar—under a pandemic dampened cap—for Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, or Dak Prescott (fresh off a brutal season-ending ankle injury)? If you’d prefer cap savings, maybe you could attempt a Ryan Tannehill-esque revival of a former young starter like Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, or (shoot me in the fucking face and don’t bother burying the body) Jameis Winston? You could try and acquire a former starter who’s getting supplanted by a rookie next year— guys like Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, or maybe even Matt Ryan now that Quinn is gone could be available. But is that an improvement? And if you’re getting one of them on the back-end of their rookie deal, are you confident about making a big money decision on them after a single season? Lastly, there’s one other option: you target a quarterback in the draft. I’m not going to get into the specifics of the draft in early October, but this is a very strong quarterback class with at least three top 5-10 talents and various value picks on the second (and potentially even third) days; if we find someone we like, package the appropriate draft capital to secure them, and feel confident about their long-term trajectory, that still means we’d be starting a rookie in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Immediate returns would be highly unlikely.

Regardless of how well or poorly we finish this season as a team, the remainder of 2020 is very much an audition year for Jimmy G. By end-of-year he needs to at least hit last year’s levels while showing a trajectory for further growth. Because if he’s not our guy that will greatly effect how we approach a critical off-season.

Pass Pro Woes: They continued this week, to the tune of 5 sacks and 8 QB hits allowed, but unlike past week’s blunders these weren’t all execution issues—some were communication/assignment issues instead. Like above with Jimmy G, I’m not sure if that’s better or worse, but it ultimately resulted in another underwhelming game in pass protection—this time to a team with a bottom 10 passing defense and a middle-of-the-pack pass rush.

It’s not always easy to tell who is messing up their assignment and why on the offensive line, but sometimes a heady center can help in that regard. While there’s been few updates on the rehab of our guys on the PUP list, they’re all eligible to be activated this week, including Weston Richburg. In two years with the team, Richburg has yet to hit the highs of an elite pass-blocking center that he showed while with the Giants, but—if healthy—he could (finally) provide a boost in that department. 

Edge Game: The only real positive on offense was the performance of our run game. The Niners carried the ball 19 times for 131 yards on a healthy 6.9 ypc clip. While the score differential would imply some of that was due to garbage time, our run game was largely effective even when the game was close.

The Niners forced the issue in getting to the edge, utilizing sweeps and tosses to outflank the Dolphins front and create creases for our running backs. While toss looks are much worse for play action purposes, and thus less useful than handoffs in opening up our passing game, they did allow Mostert to bust a 37-yarder down the sideline to set up our first score of the game. In his first game back from an MCL sprain, Mostert was one of the only bright spots on offense, putting up 90 yards on 11 carries and consistently getting positive yardage regardless of the type of run.

As stated before, there’s really no reason why our rushing attack should be any worse than last year’s so hopefully we can keep the momentum going on the ground. Leaning on a rejuvenated run game would be quite the useful crutch for a team whose quarterbacks have—over the past two games—turned the ball over six times.

DEFENSE

Never mind, bring back Dontae Johnson: On most defensive plays, it’s hard to isolate a single player who’s totally at fault for letting up a big gain. This was not the case on Sunday. Whether it was fades, slants, or even more fades, Brian Allen—our practice squad call-up to replace the injured Sherman/Moseley/Witherspoon/Johnson—was isolated early (the first play) and often (multiple times per drive). The result was an individual roasting worse than I’ve seen in quite some time.

On the first four drives the Dolphins ran 23 plays, secured 9 first downs, and totaled 221 yards en route to a 21-7 lead. During that time, Brian Allen allowed 5 catches, 124 yards, three first down completions, two first downs off of 31 yards of penalties, and one touchdown. The series after the touchdown he was pulled for a one-legged Witherspoon, only for Jamar Taylor—K’Waun Williams’ practice squad call-up—to allow a completion of 70 yards. I know it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy to pull out big plays and examine the others separately, but the stats are stark enough here that they’re worth pointing out. Even if you take out the yardage from Allen’s penalties, he and Taylor gave up 194 yards, four first downs, and a score on only six plays for a HEALTHY 32.3 yards/play. On the 57 other plays our defense ran—including the ones where the Niners had largely called it in—the Dolphins gained 242 yards on 4.2 yards/play.

You can’t really blame these two as they are—with no exaggeration—our seventh- and eighth-string cornerbacks. They should never be playing in regular season games. And while Taylor has had positive snaps in the past, Allen was simply outclassed on the field. At some point you have to either pull him or get him some help in coverage—even if that opens things up elsewhere. By the time he was yanked the Niners were already down 14 points and had allowed over half of their yardage on the day. The damage was done. Some of that is on Robert Saleh/Tony Oden. As was the case with Witherspoon late last year, they kept someone in too long in hopes that they’d work it out, and it put the Niners in a hole. In this case that hole was simply too deep and the rest of the team too out-of-sorts for the Niners to climb out of.

Granted, if they’d pulled Allen perhaps they had no one to replace him with? After the game the coaches admitted that Witherspoon was suited up only in case of emergency and took the field only after pleading his case to the coaches. But isn’t Ken Webster also on the active roster? While he came from the Dolphins practice squad and they’d surely know him well, could he have been any worse? And if so, why didn’t the Niners have any other cornerbacks on the active roster? My guess, they’re tapped out of DBs on the practice squad, are expecting the return—very very shortly—of some combination—or all three—of Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, and Ahkello Witherspoon, and didn’t want to fill a roster spot for a single game only to let that player go again a day later. Which seems to assume they wouldn’t need another corner against a team like the Dolphins. Which feels like a microcosm of this entire game.

For the sake of our sanity, let’s hope this was the wake-up call that last week should have been and that we’re not only healthier but considerably more effective for our Sunday night matchup with the Rams.

Go Niners 👍🏈