Preview: Wk9 vs. Packers

Don’t be the Texans. In any way. [Getty Images]

Opponent: Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Date: Thursday, 11/5
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 5:20 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Football is obviously more fun when you have a chance of competing on the highest level. With our insane stretch of injuries, that’s not something we can realistically do. To be fair, I still think our staff has the chops and our roster the depth to pants a few teams the rest of the way—after all, Mullens to Pettis was the dynamic duo that beat a playoff bound Seahawks late in 2018. But the shift of our focus as fans is clearly towards 2021, and to reflect that I’ll try and shift these previews and recaps as such.

INJURY REPORT

LOL. 

I’ll bypass the long list of guys who we KNOW are out in lieu of those we actually had hope for. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out. Jaquiski Tartt hasn’t practiced yet but there’s been no official word on if he’ll play. Jordan Reed practiced limited on Tuesday, which means he’s probably on the right side of a 50/50 chance at playing against the Pack. Richie James also was limited. Shrugging emoji for his status. Everyone else who you think might be injured almost certainly is and won’t be playing.

On the COVID side of things Kendrick Bourne just tested positive this morning. It seems like he’s the only one who has been isolated. With Samuel and Bourne out, Pettis just waived, and Richie James a question mark for this week, we are getting into rando territory. The Niners are likely to spend all the 2020 money they just freed up by waiving Pettis to promote former first-rounder and (lol) oft-injured Kevin White for the rest of the year as an extended tryout for the future and/or bring up someone like River Cracraft.

For self-flagellatory purposes, I decided to make a depth chart for this week. RED marks players who are injured or no longer with the team, YELLOW means they might play, GREEN with bold font are your expected starters this week, “(PS)” marks someone who was on the practice squad initially, and “FA” marks someone who we literally picked up off the street.

I noticed after completing this chart that I forgot Jalen Hurd. He would probably push Taylor back a slot.

UPDATE: Nevermind, KB’s “close contacts” have been confirmed as Brandon Aiyuk—our best remaining offensive weapon—and Trent Williams—our best lineman. So neither of them will be playing Thursday either 🙃👍

HAPPY TRAILS

On Monday we shipped KWON ALEXANDER to the Saints in exchange for a conditional fifth-round pick and Kiko Alonso, my least favorite player. It’s unclear whether Kiko was a wanted piece in the trade or a salary dump from the Saints so they could bring on Kwon’s salary, but either way he’s on the last year of a contract that will only count $900K against our cap, hasn’t played this season due to a late ACL tear in 2019, and has done little in the league after a promising start to his career. When healthy he’s not a terrible player and Azeez Al-Shair has been uneven in his second year, but my hope is that Alonso is cut, or—at worst—held as a reserve for the rest of the season before being let go on an expiring contract.

The real goal of this move was to dump Kwon’s salary and add a 2021 draft pick as we enter an off-season with a ton of roster turnover. After a contract restructure earlier this year, trading Kwon means we’ll be on the hook for $6.9M in dead money in 2021–a considerably smaller figure than the $15.6M he’d have otherwise cost against our cap. Given the deflated COVID cap and Dre Greenlaw’s bargain salary and starting ability, it was a move that should have been expected. The Niners were planning to cut Kwon in the off-season if they couldn’t find a trade partner, so literally anything in return was worth a trade. Thus, a fifth-rounder is a nice pickup, even if—as has been reported—Kwon needs to hit playing time parameters otherwise the pick is pushed to next year.

While Kwon never stayed healthy enough to reach his full potential in his year-and-a-half in San Francisco, he was a splash play guy who had a knack for the ball. But his most important contributions were in the locker room. Kwon created a mindset (and Hot Boyzz mantra) that the entire team embraced, while his super-positive, high-energy personality directly contributed to helping shape Fred Warner into the All-Pro-caliber player he is today.

While it would be a hard sell that his play justified his price tag, this is at least a case where the intangible benefits he provided were readily apparent. Now, were those benefits worth the $25 million we paid him for 14 games? That’s debatable. But if Kwon was the difference in changing the defense’s mentality and launching Warner’s play into the stratosphere then it was a move we’d happily make again.

After failing to find a trade partner, the Niners released 2018 second-round pick DANTE PETTIS on Tuesday afternoon. It’s crazy that he averaged 17+ yards/catch and caught five tugs through seven starts as a rookie but couldn’t crack a receiver-needy lineup in the past two years. While the physical talent was there, you can’t blame Shanahan for not doling out the snaps. Seemingly every time Pettis took the field he was either sticking out for the wrong reasons or completely disappearing for reasons equally as bad. The fact that he couldn’t even force a timeshare with Trent Taylor—who is a quality blocker but has brought nothing in the receiving game over the past three years—was disheartening after a training camp where things had supposedly “clicked.” All that said, I’d fully expect him to get swooped up off waivers when the smoke clears next week. Letting Pettis go saves us about $500k this year and his $1.36M base salary next year.

More surprisingly, the Niners also waived JULLIAN TAYLOR on Tuesday. Taylor, who was still on the PUP List due to a torn ACL last Thanksgiving, was locked up through 2021 and actually showed a ton of promise when he was on the field. Taylor was plagued by injuries in college, an issue that has—as evidenced by his placement on the PUP list—followed him to the pros. That being said he had super high-end potential, played well in limited snaps, was already much better than second-line DT Kentavius Street, and was on the third year of a very cheap four-year deal as we enter an off-season where DJ Jones is a UFA. Taylor was just scratching the surface of his potential and looked to have a clear path to second-team snaps, so I don’t really get the move.

Now there are a couple specifics of the PUP List that I’m not quite sure about which likely shaped this move. First off, my guess is that Taylor’s rehab had a hold-up and the Niners no longer expected him back by the end of the year. That theory would also play into the second note, which is that Taylor was waived with a failed physical designation, which I don’t know a ton about other than that it avoids an injury settlement. Perhaps this is a case where is being waived now with the intent of being re-signed later? If so, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be cheaper than his ~$800K price tag. Or perhaps they’re just happy enough with Kinlaw and Givens (and practice squadder Darrion Daniels?) that—regardless of whether DJ Jones returns or not—they were fine with letting Taylor walk. While this seems a bit like a DJ Reed situation (aka one that jettisons a talented young player for little in return), it could just come down to numbers. And not just saving them but being able to pay to operate the rest of the season.

As I’ve been saying, 49ers were very short on cap space. Jullian Taylor waive helps situation.

SF couldn’t have afforded to promote Kevin White from PS at SEA. See how that turned out (Pettis fumble). White promotion would cost $482k. Post-Kwon trade/waives, 49ers have some $$ https://t.co/S4DnEWz5us

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 3, 2020

We’re gonna have a lot of roster turnover this off-season. Perhaps, if healthy, Taylor can make his way back into our two-deep then.

Important hand signals or sex joke? You decide [FOX]

OFFENSE

A QB coach under Shanahan in Atlanta and an OC under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, Matt LaFleur has his roots in the same zone/play action based scheme as we do, but—like everyone else under the Shanahan extended coaching tree—it’s a simpler version than ours.

Last year LaFleur got credit for a quick turnaround in Green Bay, but there were concerns about how his offense meshed with Aaron Rodgers. Now, those concerns are all but gone. The offense, which was already ranked 9th in DVOA last year, has jumped up to 2nd in 2020, and the most obvious difference is in Aaron Rodgers’ comfort level in the system. They’ve catered and adapted the scheme to what Rodgers is most comfortable with, which was resulted in an offense that still throws the ball down the sidelines and hits the middle of the field with digs, crossers, and short posts but also uses motion and misdirection to scheme up quick hitters and run plays. That makes for a passing attack that is dangerous on all three levels.

On the ground, they employ a two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, both explosive runners and strong receivers out of the backfield. However, AJ Dillon, their 6-0 247-pound rookie power back, just tested positive for COVID. While Jones is expected to be back from injury, both Dillon and Jamaal Williams—who was labeled a close contact—are out for the game Thursday.

At receiver they have Davante Adams, a top-five wideout and probably the single best receiver on the planet at slipping press coverage off the line of scrimmage. He’s a massive threat on all three levels and can be a target hog if they like a matchup. Surrounding him are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard—two guys who are practically the same big-bodied but not overly dynamic player—and George Kittle’s buddy Robert Tonyan at tight end. There are weapons in the passing game but Adams is the danger man.

Through the first half of the year, Rodgers is playing MVP-caliber ball, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,948 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only 2 picks despite missing Adams for about half of those games. The offensive line—led by center Cory Linsley and long-time left tackle Eric Bakhtiari—continues to be a strength, keeping Rodgers very very clean against 90% of the competition. But therein lies the big question: exactly how much of their offensive output has been based on subpar competition? And what do they look like when they play a strong defense?

Through seven games the Packers have only beaten one team with a Defensive DVOA in the upper half of the NFL, and when they went down to Tampa Bay they were woefully embarrassed by what is perhaps the top defense in the NFL. During that game, the Packers—despite coming off a bye week—scored a season-low 10 points as Rodgers threw for 160 yards and two picks while getting sacked four times (or half of the number of sacks he’s suffered all year). If there’s one negative that seems to have held over from last year, it’s that ferocious pass rushes continue to cause very real problems for this Packers offense. If we had our defensive line I’d be pretty confident in saying we’d beat dat ass. Without them, this matchup promises to be much more complicated.

Rodgers is no spring chicken, but he has one of the best minds and arms in football and thrives when given the time and space to improvise. We’re likely to give him some blitz looks, whether we’re bluffing or not. Dialing them up on the right occasions and getting home when we inevitably send a cat blitz off the edge will be key to keeping Rodgers from getting too comfortable.

In coverage, we need to have a plan for Davante Adams and try to limit how much press man he sees. I’d assume their opening script features him in motion and isolated opposite trips as they try to get a sense of what we’re going to throw at him. Coverage disguises and variety will be key. If you can limit Adams’ impact and prevent those running backs from getting going in the run or pass game, then you’re fine with making everyone else beat you. While the other guys have a lot of size out wide, they do most of their damage on back shoulder fades and digs. If our linebackers get their depth in the passing game to play the inside breaking routes, we can live with that.

For the Future: S, Marcell Harris

If Tartt misses his third straight game, Harris will try once again to make the pitch for the starting SS job next year. Tartt is a UFA at end of the season and Harris—despite the superior athleticism of Tarvarius Moore and the defense’s move to more interchangeable safeties—seems entrenched as his backup at strong safety. While there are those in the fan base who have gotten impatient with Harris due to a few high-profile misses in coverage last year, he’s typically been better than his lowlights would indicate. He’s a smart, high-energy player, who really brings the wood on contact, and even in today’s NFL there’s a place for a player like that. 

Two starts into 2020—one against one of the top passing attacks in the nation—Harris is certainly playing his best ball, but the Packers will present another aerial attack that will test him in coverage. Harris is at his best as a glorified linebacker and doesn’t have the dynamic athleticism and versatility of Tartt, but if he can assert himself as a fundamentally sound cover guy who is no longer the target of elite passing attacks, his cheaper price tag and fewer health problems may be enough to convince the Niners to move him into a starting role in 2021. 

Probably who we should have signed instead of Dee Ford [PackersWire]

DEFENSE

In last year’s NFC Championship Game the Packers lined up in base 3-4 formation, with wide stand-up edges, tight Cover 2 and Cover 1 looks, and dared us to run. So we did. A lot. After we pounded them off tackle and around the edges to 285 yards rushing, you can rest assured, whatever we see this Thursday will NOT be what they showed us last November. 

Pettine’s scheme is based largely on four and five-man fronts with two stand-up edges, employing five or more DBs most of the time, and lots of exotic alignments and blitz looks—even though they don’t truly blitz that often. This naturally leans towards stopping the pass, as the extra DBs help in coverage, and the front seven’s comfort level with a number of looks helps generate pressure in a variety of ways. However, that really hasn’t been the case in year two. While the 2019 Packers were a strong unit against the pass and a sieve against the run, this year they’ve been pretty below average against both. Their DVOA rankings are 29th overall, 25th against the pass, and 22nd against the run. If there’s such a thing as a potentially soft landing for an offense full of backups on a short week against a division leader (that isn’t in the NFC East), this could be that. 

Za’Darius Smith is still their danger man on the edge. He leads the team with six sacks, but the exotic looks have failed to materialize much of a pass rush around him. Preston Smith, who tallied 12 sacks opposite Za’Darius last year, has only half a sack through seven games, while Rashan Gary—their 2019 first-rounder who they moved from defensive end to outside linebacker—has shown flashes of tapping his incredible physical gifts but is far from a major contributor. Even the return of NT Kenny Clark—who missed about a month-and-a-half with injury—and solid performances against the run from Kingsley Keke and Tyler Lancaster have done little to bolster their pass rush. Thus, this is a one-man band in the pressure department.

At linebacker, mainstay Blake Martinez is off being one of the only bright spots on the New York Giants and the Packers have replaced him with… a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of. Given their lack of production and the fact that two of them are first- or second-year players, I’d assume the Packers are riding the whole “stand-up linebackers don’t matter” analytics trend that seems to be taking the league by storm. While PFF gets a bit sketchy with their linebacker grading, the grades in this case are so aggressive that it’s worth noting them. As of now, none of the Packers’ top three linebackers have greater than a 44.2 overall rating, a 65.3 rating against the run, or a 44.3 against the pass. For reference, our backup linebacker Azeez Al-Shair, on just a few dozen snaps less than his Packers peers, has a grade split of 60.7/58.2/61.3. So yeah, there are some matchups to be had here, both on the ground and through the air. But with Kittle out and Reed questionable to play, those matchups may be harder than usual to exploit.

In the secondary, Jaire Alexander is their lockdown guy out wide. Every other corner is just okay. They employ Adrian Amos—their best safety—and Darnell Savage as every down safeties while Raven Greene and Will Redmond rotate as their big nickel, with the former leaning more towards box play and the latter about 50/50 in the box or over the slot. 

While the Packers will certainly be committed to stopping it, establishing a physical running game clearly needs to be a priority. Even if they sell out to against it, we’d be foolish to at least not try to repeat our success from last year—particularly after Dalvin Cook just dusted them for 163 yards rushing, 63 receiving, and four touchdowns last weekend. The Pack are strong along the DL, but it’s a tough matchup for them on the second level. Do they play two subpar linebackers to match beef with beef, or do they give up that size and roll down someone like Greene who’s played well against the run but gives up valuable size? Again, no Kittle means we’re missing our number one chess piece used to punish teams regardless of that decision, but if some combination of Deebo/Reed can play, there’s still potential for a personnel advantage. 

In the passing game, I was initially expecting split coverage looks that include some Cover 2 squat corners as they aim to muscle around our receivers on underneath routes and flood the shallow horizontal zones to counteract touch passes, swings, and short game. That being said, we could just see a lot of man coverage now. Realistically, I have no idea what our passing offense is capable of given a short week, Deebo out, Richie James a maybe, and KB going down the day before the game. Regardless, be prepared for weird ass shit on third down, where they love their exotic blitz looks—especially against a backup quarterback who has a sketchy record against pressure. Last time we played them, Shanahan burned Pettine with a third down draw against an exotic blitz that gave up gaps in the running game. The result was a 38-yard Mostert touchdown. We obviously won’t be able to get away with running the ball on every passing down (or will we…?), but if we can keep to third-and-manageable we may be able to scare Pettine out of some of his more risky blitz packages and make Mullens’ life a bit easier.

For the Future: RB, JaMycal Hasty

With Mostert, Wilson, and Coleman out, the undrafted rookie has got a shot to really assert his role in the running back rotation for 2021 and beyond. Mostert is the only member of the backfield—Juice included—who is signed through 2021, and while he’s proven to be an absolute stud when healthy, his lack of availability has shown light on how important it is to have a healthy stable of backups and rotational runners in the fold.

Neither Coleman nor Jet McKinnon seem likely to return in 2021. Jeff Wilson Jr. is a restricted free agent, so the Niners will likely slap him with the same one-year, second-round tender tag that they gave Matt Breida last year. But the Niners want at least three capable running backs, and right now Hasty has the first shot at calling dibs on one of those spots—a proposition that the Niners would love considering he’s a first-year exclusive rights free agent and can be locked up on the cheap through at least 2022. 

Given the status of the rest of our roster, who knows when Coleman and Mostert will return to the field this year. But while they’re out, Hasty—against an NFC contender with a soft rushing defense and only McKinnon to share the load—has the opportunity on Thursday night to make quite the pitch for a more permanent role.

Oddly enough, it’s once again the Vikings who present a favorable blueprint for how to beat the Packers—by plugging away on the ground against their suspect rushing defense. While the Packers are certain to be expecting that and are unlikely to be scared of Nick Mullens on a short week of practice with a depleted crop of weapons, the Vikings’ powerful run game was able to dominate the clock and play keep away from a Packers offense that—while explosive—is no longer built for the kind of wide open sets that Rodgers is famous for. And they did all that with Kirk Cousins attempting only 14 passes in the game. While I would recommend a bit more balance than that, there’s a chance that—even depleted—we can have success with a similar game script.

Go Niners 👍🏈