Preview: Wk 8 @ Seahawks

Go deep, God [Derik Hamilton/UPI]

Back in the early 2010’s, the Seahawks built a foundation on the talent of two incredible drafts and two simple but well-executed schemes—a physical zone-running West Coast offense and a 4-3 under defense that leaned heavily on Cover 3. These two schemes powered them to multiple NFC West crowns, two Super Bowl appearances, and one championship, but in recent years, they’d become a liability. Their run game was predictable and uneven and kept them from optimizing Russell Wilson’s MVP-caliber play. Their defense was too simple and no longer had the horses necessary to stop the changing wide-open nature of NFL offenses. This year—to the detriment of the rest of the NFL—they adapted. The result is a Seahawks team that is more dangerous—and aggressive—than they’ve been in years.

INJURY REPORT

The biggest news from last week is that Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (high-ankle sprain) will both miss this game, as both got injured on what could have easily been their last plays of the game before they were pulled for rest. Wilson was put on IR. Deebo has an outside shot at being back for the Packers game, but given the short week and Thursday night game time, that may be a stretch… the practice window has been opened for three guys on IR: K’Waun Williams, Tevin Coleman, and Jordan Reed. Each of them practiced this week in some capacity and could be back either Sunday or for next Thursday’s game. Of the three, K’Waun seems the most likely to return against he Seahawks… both Kwon Alexander and Jimmie Ward were limited participants on Thursday so they at least have a shot… as of Thursday, neither Jaquiski Tartt or Richie James have practiced this week. Thus, neither seem likely to play… as for the rest of our IR and PUP List gang, no one seems likely to return until—at earliest—the bye week… lastly, Jordan Willis cleared his COVID tests after the trade and will be suited up on Sunday.

OFFENSE

Gone are the predictable run-first sets on early downs as the Seahawks finally gave in to internet pressure (and appeals from their quarterback himself) to unleash Russell Wilson’s scrambling deep ball magic early and often. After ranking 26th in pass likelihood on first and second downs last year, they’re now the single most pass-heavy team on early downs. The result is an offense ranked 2nd in DVOA and 4th in passing DVOA that is finally maximizing its talent.

Wilson is playing the best football of his career. By now we well know his “scramble around then throw comebacks and sideline stop routes” ability, but he’s also throwing his breadbasket deep balls at a greater efficiency than ever. Aiding him is a pass catching group that excels at the scramble drill and one-on-one matchups. Tyler Lockett has slid smoothly into Doug Baldwin’s shoes as a perennially underrated threat who gets slippery separation on all three levels. DK Metcalf has continued to grow into his incredible physical talents and is at his best on the deep balls and broken plays that align so well with Wilson’s game. 

In the run game they continue to rely on bludgeoning interior runners—led by Chris Carson—and a straight forward zone scheme that creates double teams and tries to punish teams on the inside if they show light boxes. Unsurprisingly, their new commitment to throwing the ball has opened up lanes for their rushing attack as well. They currently rank 6th in rushing DVOA. However, they’re nearly as banged up as we are in the backfield, with their top three backs all questionable or worse for Sunday’s game. While it’s a pretty simple plug-and-play scheme on the ground, how a new back performs as a receiver and as a pass blocker could play a major role in how much we choose to blitz.

If there’s a weakness to this elite offense it’s—as always—the offensive line. While the unit has certainly taken steps forward this year they’re still one of the lesser pass blocking units in the league. To some extent that’s an acceptable issue for the Seahawks. They know Wilson will hold the ball and scramble away from rushers—two things that are naturally going to lead to more pressures. They also know that the NFL has called 41% fewer holding penalties thus far this year, a change that is advantageous for all offenses but particularly so for those with scrambling quarterbacks—who would otherwise give up some of their improvisational benefits for the drawback of putting linemen out of position and generating more holds. That being said, no one prefers bad blocking to good blocking, and while the Seahawks run one of the best and offenses in the league, if you control the line of scrimmage, you can cause problems. Two weeks ago, the Vikings—without their top pass rusher—would have beat them handily if not for back-to-back Kirk Cousins turnovers fueling a two-minute span in which the Seahawks scored 21 of their 27 points.

Schematically, the Seahawks are simpler than you’d expect for such an explosive offense. They throw the deep ball as much as anyone, but this isn’t the Chiefs where they’re running guys in motion and scheming dudes open down the field from exotic formations and route combos. To put it in its simplest forms, Seattle basically runs the single most effective game of three-flies-up known to man.

Take a look at these three frames on go routes (true go routes, not back shoulder fades) from the past two Seahawks game. Can you tell which two were completed and which one was picked off?

Is it this throw against inside-out double coverage and both defenders in great position?

How about this one, with Patrick Peterson stride-for-stride down the field?

Or this one where the DB is a full two yards further down the field than the receiver?

So do you know which one’s were big gains and which one was a pick?

No, you do not, because in none of these frames are any of these receivers remotely open at the time Russell releases the ball. And it’s not like they’ve caught a DB on their heels and this is an unflattering freeze frame before they’re about to breakaway. They often stay this well-covered through the catch point.

FWIW, the first frame saw Buddha Baker randomly lose the ball in the air while on inside coverage, spin in a circle and stop, allowing a touchdown. The second saw DK Metcalf cut off his route and Patrick Peterson run under the pass for an easy pick. The third saw the cornerback totally lose the ball in the air and get mossed for a 40-yard gain.

One of the reasons the Seahawks are so dangerous is because they never shy away from throwing these kinds of heavily contested balls. Everyone on the roster is physical at the catch point and excels at tracking deep balls and Russell is the king of the forty-yard teardrop. They know that a lot of DBs struggle to play the ball deep down the field, that Wilson’s accuracy and arc will make it hard for defenders to do any better than knock down the pass, and that a spot foul defensive PI is way more common than the other way around. So they throw these 50/50 balls throughout the game, knowing that their QB-WR combo can shift the math in their favor and that the sheer quantity of their attempts will result in some massive gains. When you defend the Seahawks deep ball you have to defend it all the way through the catch point.

The Hawks make a killing off of deep throws (well-covered and otherwise) and improvisation. They’re not schematically complex, choosing instead to let Wilson buy time and find receivers if nothing’s initially open. If you can cover them down the field and pressure Wilson in a way that reins in his ability to gain yardage on the ground and create scramble drills, they don’t have much of a short game to speak of. But doing that means sticking with two very difficult marks at receiver and winning through the catch point. 

We’ll certainly try to win on the interior against their run game and play over-the-top of everything deep, but it will be interesting to see how Saleh chooses to deploy blitzers. On one hand the speed of our linebackers could accelerate Wilson’s decision-making and take him out of scrambling situations that naturally favor his wideouts, but if we don’t get home with regularity we’d be opening up YAC potential on their dump-off passes—giving the Seapenises a short game that they otherwise may lack. 

Showing different pressure looks, even if we’re mostly dropping back into disguised coverages, will likely be on the docket, and ensuring we maintain gap integrity will be key given Wilson’s ability to create on the ground. Disguising coverages on the back end is a big part of any week’s game plan but will be particularly important this week in order to slow up Wilson’s deep ball reads and force checkdowns that we can rally up to. We’re not going to shut down the Seahawks offense, but if we can take away the explosive plays and minimize the backbreaking scramble drill conversions on third downs, we can limit efficiency by taking them out of their offensive comfort zones. 

DEFENSE

If the Seahawks’ offensive shift was predicated on the release of Russell Wilson, their defensive shift is built off the addition of all-purpose safety Jamal Adams. Since his acquisition, the Seahawks have moved further away from their Cover 3 base defense than ever before. Last year, the Seahawks lined up in base personnel (three linebackers) a league-leading 67% of snaps—which is an absurd stat considering (a) it was 2019, (b) they played the 11-personnel-dominant Rams and Cardinals twice a year, and (c) their linebackers were not that great in coverage to begin with. Now they’re leaning more towards nickel and dime packages, largely because Adams quite literally plays everywhere on the field.

Here are Adams’ snap counts based on alignment throughout the first three weeks of the season (he’s been out with injury since then). As you can see, he quite literally plays everywhere.

The result of Jamal Adams’ versatility is a defense that is more multiple and athletic than in previous years and much more capable at blitzing from the secondary—an Adams specialty. While the extra blitzing hasn’t really led to a better pass rush (we’ll get to that later), Adams’ presence near the LOS has helped them defend the run. The Seahawks started the season by holding the Falcons, Patriots, and Cowboys all under 73 yards rushing. While they followed that up by most recently allowing 201 to the Vikings and 159 to the Cardinals, they’re still rated 9th in rushing defense DVOA and will surely perform better if Adams returns this week. Adams was expected to return this week, but given that he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday due to illness, his return is questionable.

However, when it comes to defending the pass, this is one of the worst units in the NFL. Shaq Griffin is regularly considered a top tier corner and an ESPN poll of coaches and evaluators named him and Quinton Dunbar the ninth-best cornerback duo in the NFL. Consider me skeptical that a unit allowing nearly 370 yards passing has two of the best cornerbacks in the league. Griffin flashes but has never looked like a true no.1 to me and Dunbar—who was PFF’s 2nd-best corner in 2019–has seen a major drop off in play after he moved over from Washington. To be fair, they’re not a bad duo, but again, 370 yards passing per game... None of their non-Adams safeties have done all that well in coverage and Bobby Wagner, while still a stud in the running game, is only average defending the pass. There are matchups to be had in the passing game. 

Some of their issues in pass defense stem from a defensive line that has struggled to generate pressure. Despite having one of the league’s worst pass rushes last year, the Seahawks let Jadeveon Clowney walk in the off-season—believing that their young DL would develop as rushers. That hasn’t been the case. In response the Seahawks have turned more towards blitzing, and—while they’re no longer a bottom 5 unit like last year—they’re still a bottom 10 group when it comes to generating pressure. While they just made an unfortunately good trade for Carlos Dunlap, he won’t be through COVID protocols by Sunday so he won’t be playing.

The difficulty in this game will be balancing the need to target the Seahawks’ clear defensive weaknesses—their passing defense—with the need to stay balanced with the run game to optimize our own passing attack. If Deebo were able to play, I’d say we pound dat ass in the run game just as we did the past two games but with a touch more alley-hitting passes and play action shots to keep them honest. However, with Deebo and Mostert/Wilson out that means we’re missing both the horizontal stretch that has helped lighten boxes the past two weeks, and the sledgehammers who’ve punished teams when they did so. 

Brandon Aiyuk can replicate some of Deebo’s ability in the run game, but relying on him too much on fakes and touch passes will diminish his value down the field. Perhaps formation and motion games paired with misdirection will be enough to keep our ground-and-pound offense humming without taking Aiyuk off the line of scrimmage—after all, the Vikings run a similar base scheme as us and bludgeoned this defense for 200 yards despite missing Dalvin Cook for half the game—but it would be optimistic to think we’ll be able to do that without at least some Aiyuk some in the run game and an uptick in passing attempts and efficiency. In short, dudes will need to get open, our OL will need to actually do some dropback passing, and Jimmy G will need to complete passes down the field.

Kendrick Bourne, who‘s taken a backseat in terms of pass game involvement with Deebo and Aiyuk in play, will certainly need to step up in Samuel’s absence. With Richie James potentially out as well, this is a game where Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, or even (gasp) Kevin White may have to step up in the passing game. Regardless of who’s playing out wide, I’d expect George Kittle to be moved all over the place and heavily involved in the running and passing games. With Deebo down and us likely to pass, this feels like it could be a throwback target share performance for the people’s tight end.

However we do it, the most important thing on offense is to control game flow as best we can with long drives that tire out the Seahawks defense and keep their offense off the field. Teams that rely heavily on big plays often suffer more from lengthy downtime and a lack of touches. Both the Vikings and the Cardinals controlled the ball and dictated game flow in spurts against the Seahawks and Seattle’s offensive efficiency suffered as a result.

This is a very good Seahawks team, but their last five games have been decided by single scores; four of those came down to the final play. While one of the front-runners for the Super Bowl, Seattle is not a juggernaut, and if we contain their explosive plays and control game flow, we can put ourselves within a half game of the NFC West lead on Sunday. Two weeks ago that would have seemed absurd. Now, it’s a very real possibility.

Go Niners 👍🏈