49ers 33, Patriots 6

Ruining fantasy lineups, one trucked defender at a time [Maddie Meyer/Getty Images]

It’s rare that you see a Bill Belichick team get absolutely man-handled on both sides of the ball, but that was the case—both schematically and in execution—on Sunday. Holding penalties and a Garoppolo pass that sailed in the first half were the only things that slowed down our offense, which didn’t punt until late in the fourth quarter when giving-a-shit time had long since passed. Defensively, we held Cam Newton to under 100 yards passing and picked him off three times en route to a QBR of 3.5 and a third-quarter benching. 

The 467-to-241 yardage advantage was the single biggest differential in any game this season, and the 33-6 loss was the worst home loss in Belichick’s two-decade history helming the Pats. While this is far from a vintage Patriots team, it’s an impressive win nonetheless. It also sets up a high-stakes showdown with Seattle next week.

OFFENSE

For two straight weeks, Shanahan was dealing from the jump, pouncing on the Patriots on the very first drive and seamlessly adjusting the attack as the Patriots tried to mix things up with—among other things—flirtations with the same 6-1 that hounded our schematic cousins in LA two Super bowls ago. To state the obvious, the defensive adjustments didn’t work.

Forced Edges: We’ve talked at length about the need for the Niners to force the issue on the edge, finding ways to get their speed outside regardless of defensive alignments. While we spent the first weeks of this season employing tosses, pin-and-pull sweeps, and crack blocks out of condensed sets to get into the alley, the return of a healthy Deebo has seen two new developments over the course of the past two wins: touch passes and designed swing passes.

Considering the past two games have seen us rush for a combined 319 yards and four touchdowns—plus an additional 122 yards and one score on touch passes and designed swings—it’s safe to say the additions have worked.

MOAR gaps!: A quick primer on run gaps.

The letters in red (A, B, C, etc.) are the run gaps for the offense. The lines in yellow are the run fits or gap assignments for the defense. As you can see if you look at the right side of the formation, as each player is added there’s another gap to defend—theoretically ad infinitum as the only limit to the number of gaps is the number of players and the space of the field itself.

What Shanahan has done with the additions of touch passes and designed swings is add “phantom gaps” well outside the tackle box and developed methods of getting the ball into the hands of speedy skill guys with the longest handoff in the playbook—the swing pass.

Let’s take the touch passes for example:

Aiyuk (bottom of screen, his path in blue) is going in motion and getting the ball on a touch pass heading right. While the offensive line shows power left, Aiyuk will bolt to the alley behind a lead block by Juice and a belief that the linebackers in the box will be frozen enough by the action that Laken Tomlinson and Mike McGlinchey will be able to climb up to the second level and seal them inside.

Here’s the same play from the EZ view at the snap of the ball. As you can see the backfield action is very confusing. While the movement of the line—in particular the pulling guard—and the look in the backfield implies a same-side power left, which freezes the two flat-footed linebackers in the box. This allows Tomlinson and McGlinchey to climb up to the second level and seal both players inside, a block which would be incredibly difficult without the seconds-delay caused by the power action the opposite way.

If you notice, Chase Winovich—the Patriots’ top edge rusher—gets ole’d by McGlinchey. It’s easier to see in the video, but McGlinchey feigns a fire out punch like he’s trying to block him head up off the snap. As Winovich leans forward to engage, McGlinchey simply slips away and let’s him go, resulting in Winovich falling on his face and taking himself out of the play.

This edge defender will most often go unblocked in this kind of “naked” run, as the idea is that the run action away and the speed of the fly sweep motion will allow our ballcarrier to get past him before he can make a play. But in order to ensure that and prevent the defensive end from jumping the snap and blowing it up or stringing the run out further than we’d like, Shanahan has McGlinchey take a half-second to feign a run block punch, before slipping outside to climb to second level.

To me, this is the equivalent of creating a “phantom gap,” or another hole to run through that isn’t apparent pre-snap, outside of the line of scrimmage. The true “edge” of this play is in the alley, and Juice—who we’ll talk more about later—destroys his man to clear space for Aiyuk. With McGlinchey and Tomlinson both neutralizing their defenders, Aiyuk has a clear runway to use his speed, which he scampers down for a twenty yard gain.

But as teams start to respect the threat of this kind of touch pass/fly sweep action, the concept can become less effective—particularly because the motion acts as a potential indicator that it may be coming. To counteract that, Shanahan hands the ball off to the back while faking this look, timed up a hard count off the motion early in this game that caused an overeager Patriots player to jump offsides, and deployed the designed swing pass as an extra layer of misdirection.

Here is one of our designed swing passes, which—pre-snap—looks exactly like one of our touch passes, which looks exactly like one of or inside runs with fly motion. The offensive line is going to fake zone right, with Trent Williams working to seal on the second level, while Deebo goes in motion. In essence the Niners are faking touch pass to Deebo, faking handoff to the RB, and then throwing back to Deebo—the same guy we faked to first. This play not only relies on our misdirection but the fact that we’ve put lots of fly sweep looks on tape and it’s something that the Pats know they have to defend.

Here it is from the EZ angle again, but now from the defense’s perspective. As you can see, there’s a lot of confusion on what’s going on. At this point, Jimmy has snapped the ball right in time for it to be a touch pass, and is faking the handoff to the RB while the line blocks like it’s zone right.

Once again the linebackers are flat-footed, playing their inside run responsibilities first; once again, a would-be very difficult edge block from Trent Williams is made much easier by the linebackers’ hesitation; and once again, we’ve left the Patriots’ top edge rusher unblocked.

Not blocking the defense’s top defensive lineman is a staple of option football, which we’ll discuss a bit more later. The basic premise being, if someone is that hard to block, why not just not block him in the first place? Instead, you choose to put him in a bind where he has to make a decision and then you make him wrong.

In this case, Winovich sees the fly motion and stays wide, knowing that he’ll need to really outflank Deebo to stop him from getting the edge while in a full sprint. However, as the smoke clears…

Winovich realizes that Deebo doesn’t have the ball. Now, does he try to slide down the line and play cutback from an inside handoff? Or does he realize it’s a play action pass and rush Garoppolo. Unfortunately for him, the “best” play is the one that he is now totally outmatched and out of position to accomplish—guarding Deebo Samuel on the swing pass in space.

Meanwhile, our two guys out wide are playing optimal blocking angles and having the best blocker lead the way. Therefore, KB has cracked down on the slot while Kittle loops outside—a combo that can easily look like a slant-wheel route combination—and leads up on the cornerback.

Again, two me this is another “phantom gap,” only this time it’s two would-be gaps outside of the line of scrimmage. By the time Winovich realizes what’s going on it is far far too late. Deebo has out-flanked him to the sideline, has a caravan of three blockers, and can barrel his way down the field for a gain of 23 yards.

If that edge blocking reminds you of something, it’s probably because it’s the same exact look we often run on our crack lead tosses from under center.

This is one second in to what would eventually be an 80-yard Mostert TD on the first play of the game against the Jets. KB has motioned furthest outside but isn’t blocking the corner. Instead he’s pressing the corner vertical then blocking second level inside on the safety, leaving the corner to be blocked by our better blocker—in this case, Juice.

Both instances create a running back or a running back-in-receiver’s clothing (Deebo) running full speed in space on whoever the last DB is to get to the party. Even if said DB is a willing tackler, we’ll take that matchup nine times out of ten. That’s why I consider the touch passes and designed swings a run game extension into “phantom gaps.”

These schemes not only press the defense by forcing its secondary to play perfect “run fits” across the field while in space, but they also allow the Niners to pair a traditional handoff look with a “run equivalent.” It’s the older version of the now-constantly-mentioned run pass option (RPO), the run-run option. Aka, option football but updated for the modern NFL and without Jimmy G getting killed as a run threat.

The idea of adding gaps along the boundary through misdirection tied to “long handoffs” isn’t actually a new concept. In terms of its function and the stresses it puts on a defense, these plays are closest to something between a Wing T triple option and—somewhat ironically—the bubble screens and fly sweep handoffs popularized by shotgun spread-to-run rushing attacks such as Chip Kelly’s at Oregon.

So why do these touch passes and designed swings work and not suck like everything else from the Chip Kelly regime? First off, we don’t run them every third play—they’re a mix-up that Shanahan employs judiciously and from a variety of different personnel groups and formations. While teams sniffed out Kelly’s schemes in part cause he was so adamant about running few concepts out of even fewer looks, Shanahan’s offense is the polar opposite of that. Secondly, they utilize motion that creates misdirection, gives gap advantages on the front side, and allows the receiver to get a full head of steam as he reaches the line of scrimmage. Even if you see motion and are expecting a touch pass, the Niners could run inside on a handoff, throw the swing, or bend back the motion the other way on the snap of the ball. Third, we’re not pretending Jimmy G is gonna pull a keeper around the edge. Kelly’s concepts required at least the threat of a QB pull off an option handoff to open up the run and pass game. When teams realized they didn’t have to give a shit about a Blaine Gabbert keeper, they were able to shut it down. Shanahan’s offense threatens run, run equivalent, and play action pass—in short, no one’s scared of a Jimmy G keeper, but the idea of a quick pass to Deebo or Aiyuk or Kittle? That’s a problem. 

100% Fresh-Squeezed: Juice showed up prominently on the stat sheet (for a fullback) with 18 yards rushing, another 18 receiving, and a TD on the ground, but his flexibility was on greatest display when he wasn’t getting the ball.

We’ve talked ad nauseam about how much the Niners love 21 personnel because of—among other things—the rare two-way ability that both George Kittle and Juice possess as receivers and blockers, but this game was probably the best display of that to date. 

Juice did damage as a traditional fullback blocking in the box or moving outside to bowl over cornerbacks, he was a quick-hitting foil when the Patriots started committing too heavily towards the outside—like on his touchdown run—and showed off his unique skill set as a blocker and a receiver while split out wide.

When Juice lined-up or motioned out wide he could (a) pull a linebacker in man coverage out of the box to give us room to run inside, (b) crack block into the box with a bigger bodied guy to seal the edge, (c) block the heads-up cornerback where he clearly had an advantage, or (d) seal or crack the slot corner to protect initial pressure when running outside.

That last part was on display in our swing game, where Juice was the primary blocker on the two other swings we ran against the Patriots.

Like in our stretch game—where the offensive tackle hooking the edge is the most important block—Juice’s block in the slot ensures that we have an excellent space blocker on the one defender who could blow this play up if he reads and reacts quickly enough. While the swings are a wide extension of our edge running game, Juice operates as a wide extension of what an offensive tackle or tight end would be doing. He seals the edge on the play’s critical block.

Our offensive identity has been cemented: we are a run-heavy attack that threatens you on the edges in every way imaginable then—when you cheat outside to stop it—attacks the vacated space by pounding you between the tackles and popping short-to-intermediate alley-killers. If the game against the Rams was our offense’s initial form, this was our Wartortle-esque second evolution. While hopes ride on a foil Blastoise in the near future, Shanahan will have to pivot again with Deebo out for at least the next game.

DEFENSE

Another big win for Robert Saleh, whose scheme and ability to teach-up and prepare his players continues to shine despite a variety of missing pieces. I feel like I’m selling the work that he’s done short based on the small amount of room I’m giving to his unit, but this write-up is already far far too long as is. 

Back-to-forward defense: While our defense was built from front-to-back—prioritizing the defensive line as a means of disrupting passing games—our defensive resurgence in the past two weeks has relied heavily on our back seven. 

Despite our banged up secondary missing four of its five starters, we blanketed the Patriots receivers and held the Pats to under 150 passing yards despite little pressure until the waning minutes. That’s one thing against a noticeably-off Cam and a Patriots receiver corps whose number one threat was covered by our middle linebacker on occasion, but a week ago we were similarly stout against one of the most potent passing offenses in the league.

Film study, disguising looks, and the tremendous coverage ability of our linebackers have played a big part in that. So has the fact that both Goff and Newton showed up wildly inaccurate on game day. All that said, less of a pass rush means your team has to cover longer and win more battles at the catch point, and our defensive backs have done a good job of winning those matchups, deterring passes with excellent coverage, and—alongside our linebackers—tackling very well in the open field. Even in a year when we’re running at far less than full strength, all of the above bodes well for our chances both this season and in the future. 

Gap Discipline: While our defensive line hasn’t been getting home very often, they’ve done a tremendous job of maintaining gap discipline in the past two weeks. While that may not be the most important thing against someone like Jared Goff, the fact that the Niners held Cam Newton to a season-low 19 rushing yards on five carries is a major positive towards our ability to slow up running quarterbacks.

Even without someone like Bosa hand-slapping his way around the edge or DeFo knifing through the interior, excellent gap integrity can create a type of pressure on its own. A wall of defenders crunching down a quarterback’s personal space is the literal namesake for the term “collapsing the pocket” and that kind of team rush can do just enough to throw off a quarterbacks timing or accuracy—even if its unlikely to result in a sack. 

While 12 sacks on the season and a bottom 10 adjusted sack rate is a sharp decline from last year’s shitting-of-pants-inducing pass rush, we are not totally neutered in the pressure department. While not adjusted for competition, we still rank 5th in pressure percentage and 9th in QB knockdown percentage. That’s a far cry from where we were last year, but—like our recent showings in coverage—it’s a positive sign for the remainder of the year and a potentially great sign for future seasons with better health.

Sub Shoutouts: Speaking of a good sign for future seasons, Tarvarius Moore, in his first extended action since the beginning of last season, certainly didn’t seem to have any of the angle tackling issues that popped up in 2019. For Moore, the physicality and athleticism have never been in question, but he’s certainly improved his overall game as he was lights out on Sunday. To be a new starting safety with four career starts and not get targeted by the New England Patriots is an achievement in itself, and Moore was blanketing dudes down the field and crashing hard on shallow passes all day. A third-year player with one year left on his rookie deal, it’s always been a bit confusing as to what the Niners’ long-term plan is for Moore, but he certainly looks capable of a bigger role than as our dime back.

Along the defensive line, Kevin Givens continues to play really high quality ball and recorded his first career sack in the waning moments of the game. While it was on Stidham on the very last play of the game and against the Patriots’ backup guard, it’s nice to see him finally get rewarded for the good work he’s done in the trenches. He’s been looking very disruptive as of late and will have a major role moving forward, regardless of who else is healthy. 

As for Javon Kinlaw, there have been some rumblings that he’s been disappointing or that we need more from him as a pass rusher. While any bump in production would be nice, Kinlaw’s right where he was expected to be given the largely raw state in which he was drafted, the lack of a rookie minicamp or a preseason to hone his skills, and the fact that he was thrust into a bigger role than expected given injuries along the defensive line.

Defensive tackles rarely fire out of the gates as rookies. In the past five years, only two first-round tackles totaled over 3 sacks in their rookie seasons and both were highly polished and productive college players added to teams that were already loaded on the defensive line. It’ll take time, but Kinlaw has the size, strength, motor, and work ethic to project well, even if he doesn’t become a major impact player as a rookie.

With this win the Niners have cemented this much: they are—warts and all—a very good team. Are they a great team? Will they be able to beat one or both of the top two teams in the NFC within a four day span? Will the accumulation of injuries and ugly losses early in the season tank their chances at a playoff berth? Only time will tell, but the way this team has turned the corner in a season which easily could have been chalked up as an L due to circumstances outside of their control has been very impressive. And knocking off the NFL’s most dominant franchise of the 21st century in such overwhelming fashion is proof that we’re at least doing our best to position ourselves to take over their mantle.

Go Niners 👍🏈