49ers 24, Rams 16

The only completion thrown towards Verrett all night [Scott Strazzante/The Chronicle]

The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.

With their backs against the wall, the Niners turned in an absolutely masterful game plan on Sunday night. While the execution wasn’t perfect—those two third down drops and the Juice overthrow made the game more interesting than it had to be and Cooper Kupp had some chances that he didn’t convert—it was more than enough to close out the Rams with only a few heart palpitations. 

The win also keeps us very much in the running for the playoffs.

OFFENSE

The Niners found an offensive identity on Sunday and it looked a lot like the one we had to finish last year: a diverse, run-heavy game plan with tons of misdirection, a commitment to forcibly out-leveraging the defense on the edges, and a passing attack that got the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly on short-to-intermediate passes.

Our opening drive was a Shanahan Special—accomplishing our goals of minimizing drop back passing, making the defense run side-to-side against our run and screen game, and using misdirection to prevent them from keying any one concept too heavily. We went scored on a six-play 84 yard drive; those plays were outside run, fly sweep, inside run, screen, screen, fly sweep. 

At first look, our newfound commitment to the run game seemed to be a case of quantity over quality—our raw stats showed 37 carries for 122 yards on a mediocre 3.3 yards/carry. But if you exclude the two kneel downs to end the game and add in the shotgun fly sweeps—which count as touch passes in the box score—our line was 39-185-1TD on a healthy 4.7 yards/carry. 

By jumping out to a lead and controlling game flow, our offense was able to stay varied throughout the game. We had 167 yards and two scores passing, 38 yards on screens, 124 yards on handoffs, and 63 yards, one touchdown, and a game-icing bulldozer of a first down on touch passes. That amounted to 390 yards of offense and 24 points against a Rams defense that came into the game ranked 7th in Defensive DVOA.

Jimmy “Greatly Inflated Stats But I’ll Take It” Garoppolo: Despite a bum ankle and a game plan built to protect him, Jimmy G—save the one overthrow of Juice—did nearly everything we could have asked from him. His accuracy and zip weren’t there on every throw and we didn’t ask him to handle too large of a burden, but his career-long streak of never losing two starts in a row continues, and he comforted a lot of very very anxious 49ers fans on Sunday. It’s still TBD on whether he and this passing attack can get to the point where they can succeed in mandatory drop pack passing situations; thus, it’s still TBD on whether he’s the QB of the Niners after this yea. But it’s a good first step towards both under less-than-ideal conditions.

Appropriately Aggressive: Outcome be damned, I’ve liked Shanahan’s more aggressive lean in crucial situations this season—even if the fourth down TD to Kittle was one of the first times it’s actually paid off. 

Trying to score before the half against the Dolphins made sense, even if it led to a Jimmy G pick. “Regrouping at halftime” when down twenty and with Miami set to receive is an excellent way of losing by less but doesn’t do much to help you win. The game is about possessions and opportunities for points. The same goes for our fourth-and-short attempts near midfield against the Dolphins and on the goal line against Arizona—even if we converted neither of them. Critique the play-calls all you want, but going for it was the right decision. 

While this slight shift in aggressiveness may not be paying off in full quite yet, it’s a good sign of things to come. A team that excels at running the ball (which hopefully, we can consistently be) becomes considerably more dangerous if they’re willing to go for it on fourth-and-short. Not only because their run prowess could mean that they’re more likely to convert those fourth downs on the ground but because they—like we did in this game—can then run against light boxes on third downs to set-up those fourth downs in the first place.

Oddly Quiet Aaron: All-world DT Aaron Donald entered Sunday’s game in the league-lead with 7.5 sacks, but was oddly quiet throughout this contest. Part of that was game planning—as the Niners had no interest in calling drop back passes where Donald could potentially tee-off on our recovering quarterback—but appropriate props should go to Daniel Brunskill and Ben Garland, who were admittedly the players the Rams had singled out as Donald’s would-be targets but stymied him all game. While there were plenty of double teams and other snaps where we chipped or bluffed a double team to throw Donald off, Brunskill in particular really held his own against the All-Pro defensive tackle—which is a great sign to see for the starting offensive lineman who’s struggled the most this season. The Rams entered this game leading the league with 20 sacks. The exited with 0 sacks and 3 QB hits.

DEFENSE

The Rams and their top 5 offense saw a stark drop in efficiency on Sunday night. While part of that could be attributed to Jared Goff’s streaky accuracy, we did a few things schematically to take him out of his comfort zone early and elicit those problems.

The Rams entered this game with the league’s #1-ranked rushing DVOA, so we committed from the jump to take away their outside run game. Both Arik Armstead and Kevin Givens—who has quietly played very well in his second year in the league—were disruptive on the interior, whiles free-running Fred Warner snuffed out everything that made it out of the tackle box for minimal gain. While the Rams would adjust and find success with their interior run game off of misdirections such as counters and other runs against flow, by the time they were doing so consistently, they were trailing by multiple scores. But we also did another thing that threw off the Rams’ rushing attack AND confused their passing game:

Hello old friend…

By loading the LOS we took away the Rams’ ability to double team in the run game, and—just as importantly—confused Goff’s pre-snap reads. By starting the game with tons of fronts like this—including five-man blitzes out of five-man fronts on the first two snaps—and man coverage on the backend, we pretty much dared Goff to beat us with the deep ball from the jump.

While this would seemingly be the worst possible plan against the high-flying Rams aerial attack, this year’s offensive shift towards a quick-release short-yardage passing game meant the Rams were wildly out-of-sync on downfield passes. And after an entire week spent prepping soft zone coverages and underneath passes, the Rams basically spotted us their first two drives—their only possessions of the first quarter—before they figured out what was happening. 

It didn’t help that Saleh was gaslighting them throughout the first half. After those first two snaps of man coverage and five-man blitzes, the Niners slowly shifted away from the former and quickly from the latter—rarely sending extra men the rest of the game. But by continuing to show those loaded lines, the Niners bluffed extra rushers and man coverage for most of the first half. They were able to do so because (A) they trusted their linebackers’ speed and ability to make up a lot of ground and still get in good position in coverage even when lined up on the LOS, and (B) they knew the Rams’ short-yardage passing game was based off of play action bootlegs and leak outs rather than the sort of one-step throws Jimmy G feasts on. Basically, they knew the Rams couldn’t beat them to the spot on quick-hitters so they were fine with starting in a position where they’d have to make up ground in coverage. So when Goff saw man coverage and extra rushers, he’d think deep shots or hot routes pre-snap only to see something entirely different once the play was underway.

For instance, that frame shown above—on third-and-eight—ended up being a four-man rush with a Cover 3 Mable variation on the back end. Both linebackers dropped off the LOS, taking away Cooper Kupp—Goff’s first read—and slowing him up just enough that he was a hair late on the curl, which allowed Verrett to break up the pass.

Cornerbacks, it’s nice to have them again: Speaking of which, Jason Verrett has been an absolute monster after stepping into the starting lineup. In three-and-a-half games (including three starts), he’s allowed a grand total of four catches for 24 yards while breaking up three passes and registering his first pick against the Rams. According to PFF, he’s graded out as the third-best among all corners in the NFL this season. Pairing him with the oft-underrated Emmanuel Moseley—who gave up a long TD late and was on the wrong end of a ticky-tack PI call but otherwise played a great game—gave us a formidable cornerback duo for the first time since week one. When Sherman returns in (what is hopefully) a week or two, it’ll be very interesting to see who starts and plays where, especially with K’Waun Williams out at least another few weeks. Regardless, you can never have too many good cornerbacks, and Verrett’s re-emergence has been one of the positives of this season and a great option to have as we move into an off-season where big decisions will have to be made at the position. 

Pass rush, it would also be nice to have again: While we held the Rams’ pass rush to 0 sacks and 3 QB hits, our defense tallied an equally underwhelming 0 sacks and 2 QB hits. To be fair, some of that seemed to be by design. While there’s no such thing as a game plan that would prefer to have LESS pressure on a quarterback—particularly one with Goff’s scrambling ability—the Niners purposefully blitzed less in lieu of more defenders in coverage. This made it harder for Goff to find open passing windows and mitigated potential damage from bootlegs, play action passes, and screens. It’s hard to claim the strategy didn’t work, but getting no pressure isn’t really a repeatable scheme. It would be really nice to get Dee Ford and Ronald Blair back as soon as possible.

Cold water / boner killer of the week: Unfortunately, this is 2020 and the Niners—just like the world— simply can’t have good things. We came away with an important victory but finished the game with four more starters shelved, two of whom are expected to be put on IR this coming week.

Raheem Mostert was once again one of the most impressive players on the field. But once again, we’ll be without him for at least the next few weeks after he suffered our team’s fourth high-ankle sprain. It should go without saying that having Mostert healthy is a major boost to our running game. Even PFF—who has him ranked the #1 running back in the entire NFL—thinks so. We all know about Mostert’s homerun ability—he has the two fastest ball carrier run times in the NFL this year despite missing the equivalent of three entire games and his top speed was the fastest of the past five years—but his work running for tough yards inside has been just as valuable. While McKinnon has played well in his stead and the rookie JaMycal Hasty continues to show a level of burst and vision that will make him harder and harder to stash on the practice squad for an increased role in 2021, Mostert’s explosive speed and power regularly net 5-to-7 yard gains out of runs that could have been stopped for 3-or-4. Those add up in a hurry. All we can hope is that he’s only shelved for the next three weeks.

Also going on IR is Ben Garland, who suffered a calf injury very late in the contest. With Weston Richburg not set to return from the PUP list until “around Week 13,” that means Hroniss Grasu will be taking over for the foreseeable future. Grasu is not nearly the athlete and run-blocker in space as Garland, but he at least held his own in his one start this year.

Jaquiski Tartt went down at some point in the second half with a groin injury and Marcell Harris replaced him at strong safety. Harris is a well-seasoned backup, but it would be real realllll chill if the checkup on Tartt’s injury came back positive. 

Finally, Trent Williams left the game with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, giving way to second-year man Justin Skule. Like Tartt, the team is currently unsure of the severity of the injury.

Injuries notwithstanding, there was a lot to be pleased about on Sunday night. Whether we can sustain that type of performance moving forward will be up to the team’s ability to withstand (yet another) wave of major injuries. At the very least it was a critical win against a division rival and a statement of our team’s identity. In a season like this, that’s something to build upon.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk6 vs. Rams

Q: Does playing possum work against the best player in the NFL? [Brad Mills/USA Today]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (4-1)
Date: Sunday, 10/18
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Time: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

Two men enter, one comes out. Welcome to the Thunderdome. The soft part of our schedule is over. Now begins our seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 26-7, including all of the NFC’s remaining unbeatens.

First up, the Los Angeles Rams.

While last year’s 9-7 Rams finished the season strong and would have been the last wildcard entrant under the new playoff format, it was a down year for what was the NFL’s darling just months prior. Now, with an updated offense and a brand-new defense, the Rams are one bad pass interference call away from an undefeated record. While all four of their wins have come against the NFC East, this is still a team that can make a claim as the most balanced—and perhaps even best—team in the NFC through five weeks. They are unquestionably our toughest test to date and will be an excellent barometer for what kind of season we’re still capable of having.

INJURY REPORT

As of Wednesday… Jimmy Garoppolo has practiced in full (last week he was only limited). He should start again this Sunday and hopefully—for all our sakes—will look and play much better… on the flip side, Kwon Alexander, who was just starting to play his best football of the season, suffered a high-ankle sprain (though I have no idea when). As a player who has to run a lot, that would keep him out an estimated 4-6 weeks. This means Dre Greenlaw slides into his spot and Azeez Al-Shair, whose had a few rough outings, will be our Sam linebacker... there was hope that we’d have our two top corners back this week. While Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) practiced no-contact on Wednesday and has a real shot to return based on how he finishes the last stages of the concussion protocol, Richard Sherman (calf) never even returned to practice after a setback at some point during his rehab. He is—for the third week in a row—hopeful to return next week. At least Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) was off the injury report on Wednesday and is good to go… I totally miscounted in the Dolphins recap. We’re now on week 6, meaning Ronald Blair, Jullian Taylor, and Weston Richburg are still at least one week away from returning.

OFFENSE

Sean McVay comes from the Shanahan offensive tree (even if he often gets credit for many elements of it), which means the Rams run lots of zone and stretch and rely heavily on play action passes. The key differences between our scheme and the Rams’ is that (a) they run considerably lighter personnel sets—choosing instead to have wideouts in bunch formations and condensed splits who do tight end/fullback roles rather than the other way around, (b) they rely much more on deep passes versus the short-to-intermediate game, and (c) their schemes are often simpler than ours—with the goal being to have a number of different run and pass plays that all initially look the same. While McVay was originally lauded for the simplicity of his system, the equally simple defensive solution of 6-1 fronts and quarters coverage puzzled the Rams for the better part of a full calendar year. So McVay spent the off-season trying to get his mojo back and added a few new wrinkles to mix things up.

Ted Nguyen from The Athletic had a great write up about the successful changes the Rams have made in 2020, but the basics are this: (1) using fly motion towards and against their run game to diminish tendencies and open gaps underneath, (2) stealing a lot of run game concepts that Shanahan used so effectively last year as mix-up to zone/stretch, (3) putting Jared Goff on the move a lot (like A LOT), and (4) throwing the ball less down the field—typically with split-field quick game or play action leak outs that hope to maximize yards after catch. In 2018, Goff averaged 8.8 intended air yards per pass. In 2017, that fell to 7.8. Through four games this season, he’s averaged 5.9 IAY/throw, which isn’t only the lowest in the league but the lowest since the stat started being tracked in 2016. So yeah, in short he fixed their offense by copying as much as he could from what Shanahan did last year and rolling out Goff a lot.

This simpler iteration of Shanahan’s offense has led to a major boost in the run game—the Rams are #1 in rushing DVOA through five weeks—and the three-headed tailback committee of Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson have helped Jared Goff to the best stretch of play in his career. Goff gets a lot of heat from people (some have even claimed that he’s playing well in part because the stadiums have no fans so McVay can more clearly talk to him and tell him where to throw the ball before the snap), but ultimately Goff doesn’t get the credit he deserves for the Rams’ hot start. When Goff is on, he’s really on and can throw the ball on all three levels with incredible accuracy—especially when he’s throwing deep or rolling out. When he’s off, he’s really off and can look totally lost—especially when he has to scan the full field quickly under pressure. Goff has always been a player of massive variance, but he’s yet to see those lows this year, and when the Rams have been able to move the pocket, work off play action and bootlegs, and in general avoid full-field dropbacks, he can (and has) been lights out. So naturally, our goal should be to not let him do those things.

This fact was no more apparent than the last time the Rams played the Niners, when McVay—in a move that was admittedly brilliant and has in part led to the Rams’ current offense—ran play action bootlegs on nearly every single pass play, even though the Rams’ rushing attack was floundering. This full-on commitment to play action paid dividends early in that game.

Here were the Rams’ offensive stats in the first half of last year’s week 15 matchup:

At halftime, Robert Saleh adjusted to have the Niners’ defensive ends play quarterback instead of cutback on bootlegs, tasked second-line defenders on blitzes to tie up backfield leak out options to take away easy passes, and the Rams’ bootleg hack was effectively neutralized. With Los Angeles having to resort to more stationary play action passes, Goff was less protected and had to read the middle of the field more. While he’d have some success out of empty gun sets—including on their only touchdown drive of the second half—Goff would finish the game with less than five completions out of true drop back passes.

It’ll likely be less simple this time around. The Rams run game is highly more effective this season, their added motion to or away from run action means we can’t cheat our bootleg-side defensive ends as aggressively, we’re down Bosa/DeFo/Ford, and Goff is simply playing much better than last year. That being said, the strategy should still be to force Goff into as many true drop back full-field reads as possible and pressure him when we do. 

If Moseley is back from injury, it’ll be very interesting to see who plays in the nickel this game. Jamar Taylor was no Brian Allen last week but he allowed nearly 100 yards receiving himself (the two combined for something like 214 I believe?). Witherspoon is a lankier guy and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him in the slot so would they bump Moseley inside in nickel packages to get their best three corners on the field? Or would they add Tarvarius Moore and roll him or Jimmie Ward down into the slot? Having capable slot play will be crucial against a squad that prides itself in its receiver depth and still runs 11 personnel 72% of the time. While our linebacker corps is tailor-made to play well against receivers who are asked to do bigger bodied duties, there’s only so much base that you can play against three wide sets and that number decreases with Kwon out of the lineup.

There will be equally as much pressure on our re-made defensive line to have a strong two-way performance. Our young interior has been mostly impressive against the run thus far. They’ll have to continue that level of play in order to help cloud up the inside and cutback lanes and allow our edges to—as odd as it sounds—play the bootleg honest. In the passing game the Rams OL is ranked in the top 10 in every pass-blocking metric imaginable; we’ll surely need to send some extra men to get home but that further complicates how we defend one of the league’s most dangerous screen games. In short, everyone in the front seven will have to be on their toes to win at the line of scrimmage and shrink Goff’s comfort zone.

Given the Rams’ offensive improvements and our defensive injuries, we should go in expecting McVay and Goff to have some success on Sunday. The key will be making them earn it via drop back passes, generating negative plays and turnovers, and clamping down while in the red zone—an area of the field where McVay’s teams have often struggled. We don’t have the horses to shut them down, but if our cornerback room gets just a bit healthier, we have the ability to do enough.

DEFENSE

The Rams were quick to boot Wade Phillips to the curb this off-season, as they believed they needed a fresh face that would challenge McVay in X’s and O’s. To find a defensive coordinator who fit the bill, ownership told their young head coach to “find your own Sean McVay.” While that’s the douchiest and most Los Angeles comment I’ve ever heard—and reminiscent of how Oprah decides lineups on her TV channel based on if people on the show “remind herself of herself”—the result of that search was Brandon Staley, a 37 year-old Vic Fangio protege. 

FWIW, I think Vic Fangio’s D—which could have been our D if the Bears hadn’t blocked him from interviewing to come back to run the defense under Shanahan—is the best in the business. I also think he was Shanahan’s top pick as DC but I obviously have no means of proving that. Which then also presents an alternate reality where Fangio has been made a head coach somewhere else and Staley is actually our defensive coordinator at the moment… (head explosion emoji). Anyways…

The Vic Fangio defense employs a 3-4 front that generates pressure with four but can bring blitzers if needed; its two-high quarters coverage gives tremendous flexibility and lots of help to corners or safeties so they can play above their means; its versatile fronts and personnel groupings wreck havoc on opposing blocking schemes; and in general it’s just very well-coached and takes away big plays as well as any defense. Granted, that’s what the Fangio defense looks like under Fangio. But early in his tenure, Graham’s unit has been impressive. 

The Rams have the flexibility to play three- or four-man fronts, largely because Aaron Donald—the best player in all of football—can line up anywhere along the line and have success. The rest of their front seven is made up of a smattering of assorted parts. Former first-rounder Leonard Floyd comes in from Chicago as their latest Dante Fowler-esque reclamation project. He’s got juice off the edge but has yet to make a major impact thus far. Opposite him is Samson Ebukam whose had a rough transition to the new defense. According to PFF, he’s ranked dead last—110th out of 110—amongst all edge defenders this year. 

At linebacker, the Rams take the same approach as the Eagles: they don’t value the position. Three years ago when they last time they totally disregarded the position they unearthed UDFA Cory Littleton, one of the top coverage linebackers in the league. Now he’s gone and they’re trying to replace him with two rookies. It has not gone well, although Troy Reeder—who played only 18 snaps prior to this Sunday—totaled 11 tackles, 2 for loss, and three sacks against the Racial Slurs. I have no idea if that means he’s about to break out or if it was a total fluke against a bad football team.

In the secondary, the Rams run almost entirely split-field coverages (although they do have a three-high safety look that I wouldn’t expect against us). Their safeties are good and their boundary corner play is very strong. That starts with Jalen Ramsey, one of if not the best corner in the league. While the Cover 2 Read system doesn’t require great cornerback play, Ramsey’s ability allows them to be more creative with their split-field coverages and not worry about isolated receivers opposite trips formations. He has the talent and athleticism that he gets to freelance a bit.

First thing’s first when you play the Rams: make sure Aaron Donald doesn’t single-handedly blow up your entire offensive game plan, which—given the massive struggles of our offensive line in pass protection—is not out of the question. If we can block him upfront, the rest of the rushers aren’t world-beaters, but—as evidenced by their eight sacks against Washington last week—they‘re far from inept in the pressure department. Running the ball early and often could help keep them at bay. This Rams team has the 3rd-best DVOA against the pass but is ranked 24th against the run—averaging a healthy 4.7 yards/carry through five weeks of play against largely subpar rushing attacks. We need the run game to be successful and to remain a viable option throughout this contest otherwise we’ll risk exposing our gimpy quarterback to some tough looks. The last thing we want is to get into a similar game flow as last week.

Like the Eagles, the Rams believe in finding linebackers cheap and via the draft, NOT paying them. Three years ago, scouting/luck led them to Cory Littleton emerging into one of the top coverage linebackers in the game. Now he’s gone and the new crop doesn’t look as promising. If we can establish the run game and have success in our heavy sets that will put their linebackers in a more compromised position in the passing game—where our talented tight ends and backs can work the middle of the field. Considering their talent on the boundaries, we should be able to find some success between the hashes as long as we can pull safety help via alignment and route combinations. We need to get our wideouts more involved, but—if possible—avoiding Ramsey unless absolutely necessary would be recommended.

The past two games have seen us go wildly off-script. Against the Eagles it was due to poor pass protection and poor execution by Nick Mullens. Against the Dolphins it was due to... well pretty much everything. But despite the past two performances, we’re far from a bad team and this doesn’t have to be a lost season. If we avoid the mistakes and negative plays that have plagued us this season and control game flow like we did last year, we can win this game. As stated before, the best teams’ down years are still playoff years. While I’m not sure the best teams have ever been as ravaged by injuries as we currently are, that should still be the standard, and winning a critical divisional battle to regain a positive trajectory would be a nice first step.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Dolphins 43, 49ers 17

The lasting impression from this game, no matter how hard you try to forget… [USA Today]

This one will be short.

While it’s unlikely our offense or defense ever looks worse than they did on Sunday—at least at the same time—we are fully behind the eight ball and dead last in the NFC West as we enter the toughest part of our schedule: a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 24-6—including three of the NFL’s five remaining unbeatens.

Our defense will get healthier, with key reinforcements arriving as soon as next week. Jimmy G will improve as his ankle does, although to what level of play remains a big TBD. We won’t look this bad again. But if we want any chance of making the playoffs, our passing attack will need to take exponential leaps forward, and we’re all out of bad defenses and bad teams that’ll let us make that progress at our own pace.

While it’s not worth spending too much time dwelling over or looking at what was—based on expectations—the single-most disappointing performance of the Shanahan era, public expectations have already started shifting towards a somewhat cursed down year. We’ll know within the next few weeks how much those expectations match reality.

OFFENSE

Jimmy “Goddammit Don’t Make Me Start Looking Up Film of Trey Lance In October” Garoppolo: It’s impossible to say how much the ankle injury led to what was almost certainly the least accurate performance of Jimmy Garoppolo’s career. While past subpar Jimmy G performances have largely centered around poor decision making leading to interceptions, it was Garoppolo’s wild inaccuracy that led to interceptions on Sunday. Was this an aberration due to injury? An ongoing trend that began week 1 against the Cardinals? It’s hard to say, but either way, this is a major prove-it year for Jimmy G.

Garoppolo is locked up through 2022 on a team-friendly average annual salary of $27.5M. As of now, he’s the 12th-highest paid quarterback in terms of AAV salary—$2M below Ryan Tannehill, $500K above Matthew Stanford—but that undersells his relative value. If you’re comparing Jimmy G’s value you have to first take away any starter on a rookie contract. The rookie wage scale depresses their value, and teams like the Ravens, Bills, and Cardinals are joining the $35M+/year club sooner rather than later while teams like the Browns, Broncos, and Racial Slurs have expensive decisions to be made shortly as well. So if we’re counting only veterans, there are just seven (and a half, if you count Nick Foles) veteran starting quarterbacks in the league who make a lower average annual salary than Jimmy Garoppolo; five of them make $25M+ a year, so they’re within a negligible $2.5M/year of Jimmy. The other two (and a half) are Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So while moving on from Garoppolo would be financially easy after this year (only $2.8M in dead cap in 2021), replacing him would be a much harder task. Let’s look at the options.

If they’re allowed to hit the open market, would you be willing to pay top dollar—under a pandemic dampened cap—for Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, or Dak Prescott (fresh off a brutal season-ending ankle injury)? If you’d prefer cap savings, maybe you could attempt a Ryan Tannehill-esque revival of a former young starter like Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, or (shoot me in the fucking face and don’t bother burying the body) Jameis Winston? You could try and acquire a former starter who’s getting supplanted by a rookie next year— guys like Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, or maybe even Matt Ryan now that Quinn is gone could be available. But is that an improvement? And if you’re getting one of them on the back-end of their rookie deal, are you confident about making a big money decision on them after a single season? Lastly, there’s one other option: you target a quarterback in the draft. I’m not going to get into the specifics of the draft in early October, but this is a very strong quarterback class with at least three top 5-10 talents and various value picks on the second (and potentially even third) days; if we find someone we like, package the appropriate draft capital to secure them, and feel confident about their long-term trajectory, that still means we’d be starting a rookie in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Immediate returns would be highly unlikely.

Regardless of how well or poorly we finish this season as a team, the remainder of 2020 is very much an audition year for Jimmy G. By end-of-year he needs to at least hit last year’s levels while showing a trajectory for further growth. Because if he’s not our guy that will greatly effect how we approach a critical off-season.

Pass Pro Woes: They continued this week, to the tune of 5 sacks and 8 QB hits allowed, but unlike past week’s blunders these weren’t all execution issues—some were communication/assignment issues instead. Like above with Jimmy G, I’m not sure if that’s better or worse, but it ultimately resulted in another underwhelming game in pass protection—this time to a team with a bottom 10 passing defense and a middle-of-the-pack pass rush.

It’s not always easy to tell who is messing up their assignment and why on the offensive line, but sometimes a heady center can help in that regard. While there’s been few updates on the rehab of our guys on the PUP list, they’re all eligible to be activated this week, including Weston Richburg. In two years with the team, Richburg has yet to hit the highs of an elite pass-blocking center that he showed while with the Giants, but—if healthy—he could (finally) provide a boost in that department. 

Edge Game: The only real positive on offense was the performance of our run game. The Niners carried the ball 19 times for 131 yards on a healthy 6.9 ypc clip. While the score differential would imply some of that was due to garbage time, our run game was largely effective even when the game was close.

The Niners forced the issue in getting to the edge, utilizing sweeps and tosses to outflank the Dolphins front and create creases for our running backs. While toss looks are much worse for play action purposes, and thus less useful than handoffs in opening up our passing game, they did allow Mostert to bust a 37-yarder down the sideline to set up our first score of the game. In his first game back from an MCL sprain, Mostert was one of the only bright spots on offense, putting up 90 yards on 11 carries and consistently getting positive yardage regardless of the type of run.

As stated before, there’s really no reason why our rushing attack should be any worse than last year’s so hopefully we can keep the momentum going on the ground. Leaning on a rejuvenated run game would be quite the useful crutch for a team whose quarterbacks have—over the past two games—turned the ball over six times.

DEFENSE

Never mind, bring back Dontae Johnson: On most defensive plays, it’s hard to isolate a single player who’s totally at fault for letting up a big gain. This was not the case on Sunday. Whether it was fades, slants, or even more fades, Brian Allen—our practice squad call-up to replace the injured Sherman/Moseley/Witherspoon/Johnson—was isolated early (the first play) and often (multiple times per drive). The result was an individual roasting worse than I’ve seen in quite some time.

On the first four drives the Dolphins ran 23 plays, secured 9 first downs, and totaled 221 yards en route to a 21-7 lead. During that time, Brian Allen allowed 5 catches, 124 yards, three first down completions, two first downs off of 31 yards of penalties, and one touchdown. The series after the touchdown he was pulled for a one-legged Witherspoon, only for Jamar Taylor—K’Waun Williams’ practice squad call-up—to allow a completion of 70 yards. I know it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy to pull out big plays and examine the others separately, but the stats are stark enough here that they’re worth pointing out. Even if you take out the yardage from Allen’s penalties, he and Taylor gave up 194 yards, four first downs, and a score on only six plays for a HEALTHY 32.3 yards/play. On the 57 other plays our defense ran—including the ones where the Niners had largely called it in—the Dolphins gained 242 yards on 4.2 yards/play.

You can’t really blame these two as they are—with no exaggeration—our seventh- and eighth-string cornerbacks. They should never be playing in regular season games. And while Taylor has had positive snaps in the past, Allen was simply outclassed on the field. At some point you have to either pull him or get him some help in coverage—even if that opens things up elsewhere. By the time he was yanked the Niners were already down 14 points and had allowed over half of their yardage on the day. The damage was done. Some of that is on Robert Saleh/Tony Oden. As was the case with Witherspoon late last year, they kept someone in too long in hopes that they’d work it out, and it put the Niners in a hole. In this case that hole was simply too deep and the rest of the team too out-of-sorts for the Niners to climb out of.

Granted, if they’d pulled Allen perhaps they had no one to replace him with? After the game the coaches admitted that Witherspoon was suited up only in case of emergency and took the field only after pleading his case to the coaches. But isn’t Ken Webster also on the active roster? While he came from the Dolphins practice squad and they’d surely know him well, could he have been any worse? And if so, why didn’t the Niners have any other cornerbacks on the active roster? My guess, they’re tapped out of DBs on the practice squad, are expecting the return—very very shortly—of some combination—or all three—of Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, and Ahkello Witherspoon, and didn’t want to fill a roster spot for a single game only to let that player go again a day later. Which seems to assume they wouldn’t need another corner against a team like the Dolphins. Which feels like a microcosm of this entire game.

For the sake of our sanity, let’s hope this was the wake-up call that last week should have been and that we’re not only healthier but considerably more effective for our Sunday night matchup with the Rams.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk5 vs. Dolphins

This man went to Harvard

Opponent: Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/11
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Despite their laughable start to last season—which included an 0-7 start and getting out scored 16-133 in their first three games—the Miami Dolphins rebounded quite well down the stretch. After first-year head coach Brian Flores successfully installed his system and got players to buy in, the Dolphins—despite being woefully out-talented on all fronts—finished 3-2 in their last five games, including wins over the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

Loaded with draft picks and flush with cap space, the Dolphins committed to a speedy turnaround this off-season, drafting 11 players (five in the first 56 picks) and spending a whopping $237 million in free agency. I’m bull-ish on this team in the long-term. Presently, they’re not a powerhouse but they’re far from a pushover. They just hung in tight with the Seahawks until deep into the fourth quarter, have played tough in each week of a difficult opening schedule, and are a must-win contest if we want to stay in playoff contention.

INJURY REPORT

Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) were all back at practice this week, although each of them were limited. Seems like there’s a chance that all four play. I’d guess Mostert is the least likely, but don’t set your fantasy rosters based on that… at cornerback, Dontae Johnson (groin) sat out practice while Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) remains in the protocol… hopefully he’s alright… K’Waun Williams (knee) was just put on short-term IR, and Richard Sherman (calf) is eligible to return to practice this week but Shanahan has said he likely won’t be back until the Rams game at the earliest. A potential bright spot is that long-hyped-by-me practice squadder Tim Harris is off IR. If there’s a silver lining to a potentially depleted cornerback corps, it’s that maybe we can finally get a quick glimpse of Harris.

OFFENSE

Last year’s Dolphins ranked 28th in offensive DVOA, 24th in passing, and dead-last in rushing. Like every other AFC East offense, they sucked. In an attempt to rectify that, the Fins made wholesale changes on the offensive end.

The Dolphins OL allowed a league-worst 58 sacks last year; their adjusted line yardage was—by a gigantic margin—also worst in the league (the difference between their mark and second-to-last was greater than the difference between the second-to-last and 12th-ranked lines). In the off-season they reloaded the line with four new starters, poaching New England’s long-time backup and 2019 starting center Ted Karras, swooping guard Ereck Flowers from the Racial Slurs, and starting rookies at guard and tackle. Unsurprisingly, it’s not a lights out group, but—at least in the passing game—they’re able to hide things schematically.

Chad O’Shea, long-time Patriots wide receiver coach, is out after a single season as the Dolphins’ OC—replaced by Chan Gailey, former OC of the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills (for some reason all AFC East teams can only hire other AFC East coaches). While Gailey is the Ryan Fitzpatrick whisperer—having coached him to success in both New York and Buffalo—he was likely brought on more because the offenses he used to run share similarities with the NFL’s current trends—namely they use lots of 3- and 4-receiver sets and RPOs, which future signal caller Tua Tagovailoa was the GOAT at in college. The hope is that Gailey can bring out more Fitzmagic than Fitztragic and establish a foundation for Tua’s eventual ascension. So far this season, Fitzpatrick hasn’t scratched Fitzmagic levels, but he’s kept them in ball games with quick, high-percentage throws.

At the skill positions, this is a team with a lot of size that’s lacking in underneath separation. Fitzpatrick will be throwing to two jumbo receivers on the outside in Preston Williams (6-4, 210 lbs.) and DeVante Parker (6-3, 216 lbs.). Williams was a nice surprise as a rookie last year while the former first-rounder Parker—after years of hype, injuries, and failed expectations—finally broke out in his fifth year as a pro with 1,202 yards and 9 scores on a healthy 16.7 yards per catch. Filling out the rest of the 11 and 10 personnel packages are Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford—your standard quick underneath guys that every team seems to have an abundance of but don’t really move the needle one way or another. At tight end, Mike Gesicki is another giant target for Fitzpatrick, and one who has played well this season, but he’s yet to get involved in the offense on a consistent basis. The Dolphins didn’t add any wideouts in free agency or the draft, their only acquisition being a trade for third-rounder Lynn Bowden who is talented, raw, potentially troublesome (hence why he was traded), and certainly not ready to see the field against us beyond some potential wildcatt-y stuff due to our issues guarding the zone read. Speaking of zone read, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually much more mobile than you probably thought. He averages 5+ carries per game, has already rushed for 115 yards and two scores on the ground, and will absolutely be a pain in the ass both in designed runs and off-script ones.

The Dolphins want to spread the field, throw quick game, pass-to-run, and rely on their quarterback’s feet to convert some third downs. That is the blueprint for annoyance against our zone-heavy, dual-threat susceptible defense, and could be a game flow nightmare if we’re not putting them behind the sticks (for example, they had a 17-play, 73-yard drive that took 7:59 off the clock and ended with a field goal against the Seahawks). However, they lack the talent up front or the explosive potential to threaten outside of their dink-and-dunk comfort zone, so if we can generate pressure on a hit-or-miss offensive line and contest balls at the catch point against their jumbo pass catchers, we should generate enough third-and-longs to make things difficult on a team that relies almost entirely on long, plodding drives.

So far this season, Fitzpatrick has been exactly what the Dolphins need him to be, a bridge to delay the deployment of Tua. But when he can’t read the defense confidently and get the ball out quick, his middling arm talent shows, he can start to force things, and we increase the chances of summoning Fitztragic, his interception-prone and greatly preferred alter ego.

DEFENSE

Defense is Flores’ specialty, but that hasn’t translated to Miami yet. A long-term assistant for the New England Patriots, Shanalynch actually interviewed Flores for the Niners’ DC position while he was in New England (before he was calling their plays). Two years later—and fresh off a masterful neutering of the Rams’ offense in the Super Bowl—he was named head coach of the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have seen a massive overhaul on D as they try to fit an assortment of parts into a position-less hybrid 3-4 front that has the secondary talent to run man coverage on the backend. New additions Emmanuel Ogbah (Cleveland), Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), and Kyle Van Noy (New England) make up their edge/second-line tweener group while high draft picks like Raekwon Davis (2020 second-rounder) and Christian Wilkins (2019 first-rounder) are the core of their true down linemen. We’ve all seen what happens to Patriots players when they leave Foxborough, but... if anyone can get similar production from Van Noy it’s likely Flores. Lawson and Ogbah are intriguing pieces; both have shown flashes but neither ever developed into that pure edge rusher that so many teams are looking for. The Dolphins’ hope is that their skillsets will shine brighter in a more hybrid scheme but as of now they’ve yet to find their pass rush.

The Dolphins have pumped big money into their secondary, with their two starting boundary corners making a combined $31.5M/year in average annual salary. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones make up a formidable duo on the outside and testing them through the air isn’t likely to be a big part of our game plan. Howard has largely returned to form after a down 2019; Jones has missed the last few weeks with a groin injury but is expected to return against the Niners. If he doesn’t, rookie replacement Noah Igbinoghene has been burnt toast all year (ranking 111st out of 112 qualifying corners per PFF) and both he and slot corner Nik Needham should be targeted whenever possible.

Against man coverage and two top corners on the boundaries, the Niners will likely show some condensed sets, bunch formations, and motion to confuse assignments and move our outside playmakers away from Howard and Jones. Our tight ends and backs will have a chance to win one-on-one matchups in this one, both at their normal positions and split out wide in more pass-heavy looks as safeties and linebackers bounce out to guard them. The Dolphins are talented on the boundaries but their slot corners and linebackers have had issues in coverage. That’s not a great formula for stopping us. After what Kittle did to Philadelphia, I’d have to assume the Fins roll A LOT of extra coverage his way, attempting to use multiple looks, bracket coverages, and rotating defenders to try and offset the talent gap with variety. This will either fail, and he’ll still dominate, or work enough that other guys get plenty of advantageous looks. We can only hope the answer is both.

Until someone DOESN’T run it against us, I’d expect to see the wide-aligned edge defenders that we’ve faced in every matchup this year. Since those edge guys will often be stand-up linebackers they’ll likely try to disrupt our outside run game and disguise drops into the flats and short alley to take away potential backside slant/RPO situations. This would be a nice week to thin out those loaded boxes with the quick passing game, fix some issues on the OL, and throw down a trademark run game explosion so our offense has some momentum moving forward. By practically any statistic imaginable the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in football this year. They are certainly the worst defense we’ve faced and the worst rushing defense by a mile. Jumping out early would be huge against a Dolphins team that has made a habit of hanging on late with more talented squads. Mostert or no Mostert, Jimmy G or no Jimmy G, this is a matchup where our offense needs to impress.

After the Dolphins, we head into a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined 22-6 record, a run that includes matchups against half of the league’s remaining unbeaten teams. Even with the expanded playoffs, entering that two-month stretch with a 2-3 record would put us in a mighty big hole to climb out of. Let’s avoid that.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Eagles 25, 49ers 20

Upward pointing emoji [Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press]

The second Thomas Middleditch’s voice piped in to narrate a pump-up intro analogizing football with comparative startup valuations, you could tell the night was gonna be off.   

If the Giants game was a testament to how far we’ve come as an organization, the Eagles contest was a stark reminder of the issues we still need to iron out to take that next step towards becoming the football murder machine of the Patriots heyday. In short, don’t let the games that shouldn’t be close get close. 

Missed opportunities, botched nail-in-coffin moments, and letting overmatched teams hang around late enough that the outcome relies more on good bounces and bad breaks than game-planning and skill are all issues we’ve had in the past; each reared its ugly head on Sunday. Is it fair to criticize a lack of execution and killer instinct on a group piloted largely by backups, including at quarterback? Does it matter? The Eagles were just as banged up as we were. You play with who you’ve got, and we had the opportunities and game plan to win this game. We just needed to execute it.  

OFFENSE

Drive Killers: We averaged 6 yards/play and racked up a 417-to-267 yardage advantage but only put 20 points on the scoreboard. While turnovers were the obvious culprit, the overarching problem was a combination of missed and negative plays. Most of them—whether they were his fault or not—centered around our typically unflappable backup quarterback.

Excluding the four plays to end the first half, Nick Mullens quarterbacked the offense for nine offensive drives. This is how they panned out.

In every single drive that didn’t end in a touchdown, Mullens had some combination of a turnover, a missed throw, or a sack for big yardage. Our offense is explosive enough that it can still have success with some losses—we had a toss that was blown up for a five-yard loss in the first touchdown drive—but just like everyone else, we can’t survive with this many major negative plays.

Beat HARD: I’m not sure what it means moving forward when your third quarterback comes in and plays well in the wide-open, come-from-behind, late-game hurry-up offense Beathard piloted for the Niners’ final two drives. That sort of game flow is way different than anything he’d be seeing as a starter so his “fuck it, sling it” play over a small sample size doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the superior option moving forward. But Beathard deserves plenty of credit. He looked considerably better than his last sighting in 2018 and exponentially better than Mullens—who PFF graded as having the single worst performance by any QB in any game this season. Beathard’s only really demerit was the two-point conversion attempt, where a perfect play-call gave him the option to scramble or run, and—when the latter was way more open—he unsuccessfully attempted the former instead.

If Jimmy G can’t go next week against the Dolphins, who gets the nod? I dunno. But this stat is worth remembering: since 2017, the Niners are 22-7 with Garoppolo and 5-21 without him. Jimmy G, get well soon.

Kittle: As expected, our game plan leaned heavily on our non-receivers to exploit potential mismatches on the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties. Consider them exploited. 24 of our 32 completed passes and 252 of our 338 yards passing went to tight ends or running backs (Aiyuk’s acrobatic touchdown counted as a run), while Kittle—also as expected—feasted on his overmatched defenders all night to the tune of 15 grabs for 183 yards and a score. After missing the past two weeks with an MCL sprain, Kittle was a perfect 15-of-15 when targeted. That is unreal efficiency.

Where Art Thou Blocks?: Through four games, our offensive line ranks 31st in the NFL in adjusted line yards, 25th in % of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, 29th in sack percentage, and 20th in adjusted sack rate. On Sunday against the Eagles, we allowed 5 sacks and our QBs were hit 15 times (second-most in the Shanahan era), while Jerick McKinnon rushed for 54 yards—57 of them after contact. Needless to say we haven’t been killing it up front. So what’s going wrong?

I’m going to spend the majority of the rest of this piece talking about the run blocking, but in regards to pass blocking the most oversimplified answer to our struggles is individual play—particularly on our right side. Mike McGlinchey, who had pass protection issues as a rookie but seemed to improve late last year after returning from injury, was expected to turn the corner as a pass blocker this season. So far, the opposite has happened. He’s been a liability thus far, and when he whiffs it seems to stick out like a sore thumb. Against the Eagles he missed on two of our three last plays, which led to QB hits as we tried for the go-ahead score, while another major miss contributed to Mullens’ pick on the Eagles’ six-yard line.

#Eagles get the turnover with an interception off of Nick Mullens. #FlyEaglesFly #NFL pic.twitter.com/xAkGKw8mKS

— Justin Groc (@jgroc) October 5, 2020

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was firing out low in order to sell run on the play fake because otherwise I have no idea what happened. Regardless, protection takes precedence over the fake and when you lunge like this in pass pro, it’s a recipe for disaster. Also, FWIW…

That’s really obviously pass interference. Last time I checked you can’t two-hand block a receiver as he’s crossing the field while the ball’s in the air. And no, looking for the ball doesn’t count when you only look and don’t actually turn or disengage from the receiver. Luckily for the Eagles the throw was so ill-advised and destined to be a pick that the refs could see nothing else. Which… fair I guess.

Next to McGlinchey, Daniel Brunskill has regressed greatly since his super sub run in 2019. For a guy who made multiple starts at tackle last year, his issues in interior pass pro have been the most surprising. While the lack of snaps at guard during training camp surely didn’t help, he performed considerably better with NO expectation of playing last year so a massive regression was unexpected to say the least.

But what’s going on in the run game?

(1) Loaded boxes + Wide-ass Edges: It’s almost as if people don’t respect our passing game… teams thus far have been loading the box with 7- and 8-man fronts then keeping their defensive ends wide to prioritize beating hook blocks in our stretch game and containing our quarterbacks on bootleg passes.

Even if we were an option team, which we so clearly are not, we wouldn’t have the bodies to consistently block these fronts in the run game. This has forced us to motion wideouts into tighter splits—which I believe we did in both of these plays before snapping the ball—and has largely clouded up the bidness so there’s little room to run.

(2) Vertical instead of horizontal play on the edge: Defending the stretch running game usually means relying on your defensive front to maintain its gap integrity as it slides laterally with the offensive line. The edge defender tries to beat the hook block, keep his outside arm open, and prevent the bounce at all costs as he waits for backup from the inside.

Due to our speed in the backfield and edge rushing reputation, it seems like teams have started to get more aggressive at the point of attack—committing fully to jumping that edge and getting penetration. They’d rather not risk each of their defenders having to maintain gap integrity every play so they’re trying to get vertical push on the edge, which forces the running back to rush a cut upfield. Their alignment is so wide and their path so aggressive that even if the running back can bounce outside, their hope is that they’ve got enough penetration to tackle him or slow-up his bounce outside.

LOS is 35-yard line. Here the penetration on the edge has caused Jet to juke outside in order to bounce, which will slow up his momentum so much that he’ll get caught from behind for a gain of three (which is then called back on a hold).

This messes up the path and the timing of the running back—who’d rather slow-play his cut to set up the second-level defenders for bad angles and his linemen for easier blocks—and also allows a linebacker corps that wouldn’t necessarily have the speed to chase down our backs an easier point of attack. Now these linebackers can shoot to the hole inside the offensive tackle without worry that they’ll take too aggressive of an angle and get outflanked on a bounce.

Shanahan has used different looks to force the issue on the edge, including tosses and sweeps. While our sweep and reverse game has worked well, the tosses have been hit-or-miss.

LOS is 33-yard line. There’s so much penetration that McKinnon once again has to shuffle juke outside—killing his momentum and allowing inside defenders to catch him.

Tosses have their value (see: Jets game), but are a mix-up rather than a staple. You can’t live off toss sweeps unless you’re a Pop Warner coach with the most athletic eight year-old in the league. Plus, they present considerably less play action value. It’s nothing revolutionary that teams are doing here, but we need to find ways of punishing their full commitment to the outside run—both on the edges and inside—in order to keep them honest and open up our stretch running game again.

(3) Missing Mostert: I think last week against the Eagles was Jet’s best game as a runner. Earlier in the season he seemed a little rusty in his paths and was missing some cutback lanes. In this matchup, he really seemed to hit every hole and made a few gains out of nothing where he made a guy miss in a phone booth.

That being said, the speed and explosion of Jet versus the injured Raheem Mostert is pretty striking. How many times have you seen Mostert in the open field and not thought touchdown? None? And while it’s unfair to compare Jet to the fastest and biggest homerun running back in the NFL, there are a couple instances where Mostert’s absurd burst through the hole or even Coleman’s explosive physical short-yardage style could have been a nice mix-up for the defense.

Shanahan took a lot of flak for not starting Mostert all of last year, but his strategy of softening teams up with Coleman then springing Mostert on them for huge gains clearly worked. While Mostert should still get the start and the majority of the carries once he returns, presenting a variety of backs makes it harder for run defenses to get settled which in turn makes it easier for us to get bigger chunks of yardage.

(4) Missed second-level blocks: Realistically, this is what’s killed us the most. Shanahan’s playbook has answers to all of these issues and—as we’ll see shortly—he’s already deployed some of them. We just haven’t blocked them, particularly on the second-level. We’ve known for a while that we’re a more feast-or-famine type of run game. Our concepts are more complex to execute because their upside for big gains is higher. Due to that, a missed block here or there hurts us more than most teams’ running games. Even with loaded boxes and teams selling out to stop the outside running game, we’ve had a number of 3-to-5-yard runs that could have gone for big gains if not for a single missed block on the second level.

Some of this is on our wideouts. Trent Taylor has missed a few blocks. Brandon Aiyuk has, at times, committed too long to pulling the corner then is late peeling off to block the safety. But there’s plenty of blame to be put on the offensive line as well, in particular our interior, and especially Brunskill. For a converted tight end, he hasn’t looked great in space, either missing his blocks or not holding them long enough to allow our small runs to become big ones. Based on his play last year, I’m still bull-ish on his ability. The hope is that he can continue to improve with more snaps at guard. Helping him work through it may be our best/only option considering the alternative is throwing in Tom Compton or fifth-round rookie Colton McKivitz.

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS?

(1) Pass game improvements: Having any threat of a passing game will limit the eight man boxes, which in turn will clear out space for more second-level blocks and inside runs. For that to happen our pass protection needs to improve, but simply getting healthy again is equally as important. Through four games our starting quarterback has played less than a single half alongside our top target, only a handful of snaps with our promising rookie wideout, and zero snaps (during the season or in training camp) with last year’s leading receiver. A return to health will do wonders for opening up boxes.

(2) More gap schemes: This isn’t the first time teams have committed to taking away our outside running game, so we actually have a variety of gap schemes that we have run pretty well in the past as a counterattack. With teams committing so heavily to stopping stretch, it’s probably worth employing them more regularly to keep defenses honest.

Power runs could make defenses regret their wide alignments as they try to condense to combat kick out blocks, or open up big holes if we have the guard lead through and the play-side tackle lock on. Same with our same-side power/counter concepts. I’d also think that—while not gap runs—our split zone and bend-back split-stretch could be useful. Anything that creates that fast flow and overcommitment to stopping stretch before attacking inside should be on the table. Misdirection is key. Whether that’s in the backfield or while using…

(3) More fly/reverse action: Making teams commit to the outside threat with plenty of fly sweeps and reverse action should open up running holes underneath. Of all teams, we have the horses now—with Deebo and Aiyuk, and even Kittle—to actually hand off the ball and get non-running back rushing yards on a regular basis. And while that many wideout handoffs could seem gimmicky, it’s clearly something that Shanahan has no problem employing on a regular basis. Deebo averaged two carries per game over his last six games last year, including three for 53 yards in the Super Bowl. Think of our wideouts like halfbacks in a wing T offense. If teams are fast-flowing our backfield run game and/or not playing the edges on non-traditional handoffs, then we have the dudes to make them pay. Regularly.

To Sean McVay’s credit, one of the things he does really well is fully commit to something, even if it would traditionally seem to be a counter rather than a staple. In week 16 against us, the Rams did nothing but bootleg passes to free up Goff. Two weeks ago against the Eagles, the Rams receivers had six carries on sweeps and reverses because of Philadelphia’s fast flow. Now that Deebo is back to health and Aiyuk is breaking into the offense, we can punish teams who don’t play them honestly. And when teams believe we can handoff the ball—and are scared of the results when we do—we open up tons of space underneath.

Such as in this play to start the second half:

We’re lined up in our gun split-backs look with our strength to the top of the screen. Expecting a loaded box and man coverage across the board, the Niners have dialed up a play that will use the decoy of Kittle (who has already been torching them) to threaten the edges while attacking the soft interior.

Kittle motions across the field, taking his guy with him.

Here we’re faking both Kittle fly sweep/touch pass and Kittle play action dump-off left while running inside zone right. While the Eagles are in a 5-man front, their wide alignments to stop stretch make for easy angles for each of our offensive linemen on the inside-hitting zone play.

Juice will jab step right to feign a stretch/zone lead, before bending back and kicking out the end—or most dangerous / whoever doesn’t bite on the fake/comes first.

Seeing zone blocking and Juice stepping right initially, the Eagles linebackers creep inwards and upwards, expecting to fill play-side against the zone run.

Meanwhile, the backside end looks to close down his wide alignment and play cutback…

The fly motion makes him hesitate once (maybe Kittle got the handoff?) then twice as he realizes that since they’re in man coverage and Kittle is going across the line of scrimmage, he needs to try and slow Kittle’s release to the flat. If not, Kittle could get an easy dump-off pass and a full head of steam against a single trailing cornerback.

The end stops and tries to reach out to grab Kittle but fails, while the trailing cornerback follows over top (he’s getting run out of the play), and the linebacker nearest Kittle starts to think the same thing as the defensive end: they’re getting out-flanked on a play action and they’re about to have to tackle Kittle in space. Thus, the linebacker gives up on the zone look and starts to widen outside.

Juice makes a game-time decision and figures the DE is still dangerous enough that he should kick him out instead of leading up to the linebacker. Ultimately, it may not have mattered either way, as the result is the following:

Both the defensive end and the linebacker widen to play Kittle, who is now all the way out near the numbers. Meanwhile, Jet hits the cutback lane on the inside zone and there is a gigantic hole up the middle of the defense.

In this frame, the defensive end is fully discombobulated and also getting kicked out, while the linebacker is running AWAY from the ballcarrier as he tries to hedge his bets on Kittle. No one within five yards is even LOOKING at the guy with the ball, much less in a position to stop him.

Here’s the view from the press box. What is the likelihood that Mostert—if healthy—would be blasting through that hole then eviscerating the angle of the deep safety for yet another 75-plus touchdown? High. Very High.

Instead, the linebacker recovers and gets McKinnon down before he can break into the open field.

pic.twitter.com/kuCo96YRoB

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

These kinds of plays, which thread in multiple layers of deception and misdirection to threaten outside while attacking inside, can be very effective against teams that commit to stopping the outside running game.

(4) Make blocks: Well, yeah.

If we block well, we can still get the edge on anyone. We have the skill and the diversity of run looks to do so. Here’s an example of a way that Shanahan maneuvers to take the edge from a team that’s trying to do nothing but stop that exact thing and how close we were—again—to breaking a big run.

Here we are against another seven- or eight-man box (depending on how you count #34). Deebo is going to motion across to the weak side, both bringing the defender he has in man coverage with him and causing the strong-side defensive end and linebacker to switch gap responsibilities.

This will be crucial to help Kittle’s block on the edge.

We’re running what is kind of like the zone variation of counter trey. Basically we’re faking inside zone left with our backfield and our offensive line, then using Kittle and Taylor to seal the right-side edge while Deebo loops around behind like a pulling guard to lead up on the cornerback.

On the snap, Mullens opens to the left as it sells the idea of an inside zone left and it threatens the potential for a sweep handoff to Deebo the other way. The line blocks just like they would with an inside zone, with Garland (#63) and Brunskill (#60) planning to work up to the second level.

Their blocks are made easier by the fact that the linebackers are—rightfully—expecting inside zone. Thus they’re flowing to the left side of the formation and creeping forward with hopes of meeting Jet in the hole. On the backside, you can see how the inside zone look away helps Kittle—as the defensive end tries to get inside and play the C gap—and Taylor—as the linebacker is sliding inside as well.

Remember, the goal of this play is to go OUTSIDE of Kittle and Taylor, so the flow of the defense helps set up better blocking angles.

As Garland and Brunskill work up to the second level, let’s look at the play-side edge blocking. Deebo is heading up to the cornerback while Kittle is riding the defensive end out wide, working to front him while preventing him from shooting across his face outside.

We talked earlier about missed blocks on the second level. Here’s the first of them on this play. In pink, you can see that Taylor took a path that was too flat and that allowed his man to beat him outside.

Taylor’s defender has now set the edge outside of Kittle, forcing the run inside. The defensive end slips off Kittle to the inside, which isn’t Kittle’s fault as Kittle was prioritizing sealing the edge in hopes of an outside run, but that’s far from a deal breaker because of how much space we’ve created inside by stringing out the defense.

With the flexibility of the stretch scheme and the successful inside fake, Jet has a giant hole to run through and Taylor, to his credit, is looking upfield to try and block someone else after missing his first attempt. However, this is where our second missed block—in pink—comes in. Brunskill hasn’t kept his defender inside, and the linebacker is now closing down space as McKinnon starts to cut up field.

The linebacker lunges for the tackle and drags down Jet for a short gain—snuffing out a play that could have been much more. If either Taylor OR Brunskill missed their block the play still would have worked—McKinnon would have outrun the linebacker while bouncing outside or cut upfield into an unoccupied hole—but since they BOTH missed their blocks, a big gain on the ground became an innocuous five-yard gain on the box score.

pic.twitter.com/nH7rSlSgqc

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

The plays are there, we just have to execute better.

The good news? We’ve put up 400+ on back-to-back defenses despite starting our backup quarterback, our third-string running back, and getting the equivalent of two games out of our top two receiving targets. Despite all that we’re still ranked in the top 10 in every major statistical offensive category. We’ll get healthy and get things sorted out. Also, young Brandon Aiyuk looks more athletic every day.

*chef's kiss* pic.twitter.com/zFLrItCbcm

— Stu Motown #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) October 5, 2020

So there’s that.

DEFENSE

Through four weeks the Niners have the second-lowest average depth of target in the NFL (6.0 yards) after finishing first (6.5 yards/target) in that figure last year. Part of that is the offenses they’ve faced, but give Robert Saleh the credit he deserves. With the Niners decimated by injuries along their front and back lines, the depth of this defense has shown through and Saleh has adjusted the team’s pressure techniques accordingly. While we were one of the least blitz-happy teams in the league last year, we’ve blitzed the 8th-most in 2020, yet we’ve still maintained top 5 marks in hurry, knock down, and pressure rates and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. Yes, tougher tests are to come, but accomplishing that down your top three defensive ends and top five cornerbacks is quite an achievement.

Option Runs: As expected, the Eagles showed plenty of option looks both from Wentz and second-round pick Jalen Hurts, and—just like last week—those runs were more successful than their handoffs in getting yardage and first downs. If you exclude that ill-advised reverse that got blown up for a 12-yard loss, the Eagles’ running backs carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards (2.9 ypc). Their quarterbacks carried the ball 10 times for 55 yards (5.5 ypc). 

A team that relies on multiple fronts, position-less front seven players, and tons of blitzing presents more confusing alignments and run fit responsibilities for on offense, which in turn can make running option plays more difficult. While a team like the Ravens or Cardinals that includes zone read as a foundational part of their offense will be prepped to run those plays against such a front, a team that deals more casually in zone read might avoid it all together in lieu of something that takes less practice time. Since we typically rely on a four-man front and rarely drop our DL into coverage it’s a little bit easier on standard downs to determine our gap responsibilities and read keys. That, and the fact that we’ve done so well against standard run plays this year, means any QB with some athleticism is likely to try it a few times per game against us. 

We’ve gone over the slate of dual-threat quarterbacks we’re about to face. While we’re not going to change our defensive philosophies to combat this one style of play, we need to get better at defending it or we’re going to get gashed later this year. 

Edge Speed: We lacked it. For the first time this year we really saw what losing Bosa and Ford does to our ability to corral quarterbacks inside the pocket. Even when Carson Wentz wasn’t hurting us with designed runs, he was getting outside the pocket on bootlegs and scrambles—turning potential incompletions or sacks into short yardage runs and completions down the sideline. While Dion Jordan showed his athleticism in bursts, having either Bosa or Ford really would have neutered the Eagles’ ability to get outside the pocket and thus limited their ability to do much of anything on offense.

Considering Ezekiel Ansah—just signed last week to help offset the loss of Bosa and Ford—tore his biceps in the first half and is getting put on (real) IR later this week, this is a problem that’s gonna get worse before it gets better. We’re certainly adding another defensive lineman at some point this week, but the pickens are slim indeed (shakes fist at the fact that Damontre Moore is now with the Seahawks). We’re pretty much down to super-old dudes (Clay Matthews, Cameron Wake) or super-young developmental dudes (Alex Barrett from the practice squad?). While the latter category may sound more exciting, a high potential dude who isn’t playing four weeks in is likely quite rough around the edges. If the Niners go the young route, perhaps they comb over the practice squads of defenses with strong, deep, and healthy fronts for someone who might be buried due to lack of need.

Well look who it is... I don’t wanna rag on the dude too much. Dontae Johnson’s deep on the depth chart for a reason, he’s only playing due to massive amounts of injuries, he himself had a groin tweak in this game but played through it cause we ran out of bodies, and I know the majority of my memories of him are from 2017 when we were terrible and everyone got burnt; thus I suffer from an innate and personal PTSD bias. But goddammit can we please get healthy soon? 

What’s that? K’Waun Williams was just put on short-term IR with a lower body injury? Well I guess I’ll just fuck myself then. Jamar Taylor—who Saleh brilliantly blitzed on his first snap of the game—will almost surely be added to the active roster to replace Williams. Witherspoon, Moseley, and Sherman should all be back soon (although there’s talk that Sherman and Mostert are more likely to return against the Rams). At full strength, there’s a chance Moseley could play in the nickel while Verrett plays outside? Neither really played there during camp but it seems pretty clear who our top three corners are with Williams out.

KYLE SHANAHAN’S “FUCK YOUR COUCH” PLAY OF THE WEEK

Somewhat fitting considering how this game turned out, but this week’s play ended up an incomplete pass. But mother of god was it open.

Let’s take a look.

This one’s more play-calling than play-structuring. It’s a simple concept, just dialed up at exactly the right time against exactly the right defense and (mostly) executed to perfection.

This is the second play of the game. Knowing Jim Schwartz would likely be aggressive on the outsides with our backup quarterback in and with the ball at our own 11-yard line, he went Cover 1 to load the box on a second-and-10. The Niners presented an I-Form look that implied inside handoff, then sent Bourne across the formation in motion. This made clear that the Eagles were indeed in man coverage and put him away from the single-side receiver to create as much space on the left side of the field as possible.

Shanahan’s dialed up a deep play action lead ISO fake that will become a max protect play action pass with two receivers on routes. This is the definition of a shot play. After the fake, Mullens will look inside-to-outside, first at the deep post and then at the wheel out of the backfield (in red).

Unless the deep safety bites so incredibly hard on play action that Aiyuk can get over top of him, this ball is going to Juice.

On the snap, the run fake works to perfection. All three linebackers and the deep safety rush forward thinking inside run, while Kittle and Bourne protect backside to ensure a blitzing man doesn’t get through.

Aiyuk—with a mandatory inside release in order to get the attention of the deep safety—absolutely roasts his cornerback off the line of scrimmage then quickly gains a step on him down the field. While we haven’t seen the rookie’s downfield ability yet, this is a good sign of things to come.

The free safety notices Aiyuk blazing open down the field and turns to help over top, while Juice fakes his lead block so well that the play-side linebacker slips out of his way in order to stagger into the hole. Both linebackers (#57 and #40) are stacked up on the line of scrimmage as Juice leaks down the sideline uncovered.

There is no one for miles.

Darius Slay (#24) starts to see it but he’s all the way across the field while both the play-side corner and free safety are busy with Aiyuk, who—to his credit—seems to have actually beat both of them despite the double team. If completed, this is a bare minimum of a forty yard gain. With that much space, it could go much longer.

By now Jim Schwartz, circled in blue, has seen it. Thus he has crouched down in the universal “I’m gonna shit myself and then pretend I tweaked something so I can sneak off to the locker room” squat. He won’t rise back up until the ball is safely over Juice’s head and incomplete.

KSFYCPOTW Week 4 pic.twitter.com/ptWfPN1e77

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

Hitting this shot could have opened the floodgates and turned this game into a much different affair. Alas, we’re now 2-2, nearing the meat of our schedule, and playing catch-up in the NFC West. We have the means to patch up our issues, but we need to do so quickly.

Go Niners 👍🏈