Off-Season Preview: OL

The #1 way that 2022 could have gone sideways was if our new-look interior line hadn’t been up to the task. Luckily, our three new starters played about as well as we could have asked for, and—just as importantly—our OL was mostly healthy throughout the year. This helped power an offense that rushed for the seventh-most yards in the league and allowed the sixth-fewest sacks. However, our OL wasn’t the mauling run blocking unit of years past and we definitely got heated up a bit in our last two matchups—even if those games were against the two best pass rushes in football. So while we were all pleasantly surprised by our OL’s performance last year, improvements are still needed.

Offensive Tackle

UFA: Mike McGlinchey
RFA/ERFA: Colton McKivitz (RFA)

Trent Williams continues to be the best offensive tackle in football, and it is not particularly close. According to PFF, he was once again the top-rated tackle, tops in run blocking, and fifth in pass pro. While his overall rating dipped from his 2021 level of “this is the best rating anyone has ever gotten at any position” to just plain “this is the best tackle in the world right now,” we have been and continue to be thrilled to have Williams rag-dolling grown men on our blindside. 

Although there’s been rumors of a flirtation with retirement bouncing about the internet, it doesn’t seem like something Williams is genuinely contemplating at the moment, and—on the flip side—there’s a decent chance the Niners actually approach Williams about a contract restructuring to free up more cash in the present. 2023 marks the last of the guaranteed money on Williams’ contract, so if he’s confident he wants to play for a few more years, a re-structuring could make sense for both parties and open up quite a bit of cap space. 

Opposite Williams, the much-maligned Mike McGlinchey put together a solid-but-unspectacular season. He’ll always be a better run blocker than pass protector, but he’s put in a lot of work over the past years to limit the big whiffs in pass pro that much of the fanbase has known him for. He is, for all intents and purposes, an above-average-to-good right tackle who is narrowly on the right side of 30, and that means he’ll certainly have suitors on the open market. According to Spotrac, McGlinchey’s market value is an estimated $14.8M/year and that seems relatively accurate (if not on the low side). McGlinchey has been vocal about his interest in returning to the bay, where both his fiancee and many of his friends are from, but there’s a very real world where we get priced out of retaining his services. In the simplest of terms, we can definitely do worse than McGlinchey, and—unless one of our internal candidates or a mid-to-late round draft pick surpasses expectations—we won’t be able to do better without shelling out loads of cap space. So what’s the plan?

I’d say it’s a hair less than 50/50 we re-sign McGlinchey, with the team wanting him back but his price tag rising out of our range, but—first thing’s first—we’re going to re-sign Colton McKivitz. While he lost his spot as the team’s top backup tackle early in the year, there was some talk that was due to injury, and he played well in limited snaps this season. The second clubhouse leader to replace McGlinchey would be soon-to-be-third-year player Jaylon Moore, who started two games in place of Trent Williams last season and provides considerably more athletic upside at the position. Neither are slam dunk replacements as a full-time right tackle, but there’s absolutely a world where the Niners roll with that duo—hoping that two of them (plus any incoming rookies) could net a serviceable starter and a flexible backup or two behind him. 

If the Niners do plan to dip into the free agent market, there’s a number of different directions they could go:

NOTE: I’ll be referencing PFF’s scores in these write-ups because I am no OL expert, and a number of these teams I just don’t watch. I’m well aware that it’s not a perfect metric, but it is one of the only available statistical measures for linemen. So… better than nothing.

Kaleb McGary, Atlanta: A former first-round draft pick who was considered enough of a disappointment that Atlanta didn’t exercise his fifth-year option, McGary responded by posting a career year that saw him ranked as PFF’s fourth-best offensive tackle with a run blocking mark second only to our own Trent Williams. He’s a mauler in the run game with more power than lateral quickness, and that shows in his pass pro scores. While he vastly improved in that regard last year, his career-high 2022 marks in the passing game check in as a tick below McGlinchey’s career averages, and there’s always some worry that his play fit so well in Atlanta’s run-heavy scheme that he may be even more susceptible to pass rushers outside of it. We’d basically be swinging on a McGlinchey type with greater variance, and while McGary will likely command a lesser contract than our right tackle incumbent, given the market, I’m not sure the price difference between the two will be enough for us to warrant the move.  

Jermaine Eluemunor, Las Vegas: A London transplant who was late to football, Eluemunor entered the league as a raw prospect in 2017 (only 12 starts in college). After being a swing tackle across three different teams in his first five years in the league, he was finally given the reins at right tackle and posted a career year in 2022. He’s a big boy, but he moves well and has posted four straight years with pass pro scores above 70.0 (for reference, McGlinchey has eclipsed that mark only twice in his career). Like McGary above, it’s always worth taking a closer look when someone has a contract year bump. When that player has been in the league for a while, it’s another red flag that could point to timely variance rather than projected improvement. That said, Eluemunor’s raw status when he entered the league and his lack of starting opportunities until last season may actually help the likelihood that he’s on the upswing rather than peaking before a big contract. Perhaps it just took him a while to put it all together, and there’s a world where his price tag may be closer to that of a backup but with starter-level production.

Cameron Fleming, Denver: Another long-time journeyman swing tackle who played well when finally given a starting opportunity, Fleming has quietly put together two solid seasons in Denver. He doesn’t exactly excel at any one thing, and he’ll turn 31 just before next season starts, but he may be able to be had at a price tag more comparable to  a swing tackle competing for a starting job than a full-on starter. And at worst, he’d be a solid backup if he gets beat out. 

Andre Dillard, Philadelphia: Another former first-round pick, Dillard—due to opting out the COVID year—has only played three seasons in the NFL, and—due to the emergence of Jordan Mailata at left tackle—he’s never gotten the chance to really assert his ability (starting only 9 games over those three years). Coming out of Wazzu, the knock on him was his power in the run game, and that’s shown true in his grades. So it’s not hard to understand how he may have struggled to crack the rotation of one of the run-heaviest teams in the country. But Dillard’s primary weakness seems to be opportunity. He’s played well when he’s seen the field the past two seasons and is a plus plus athlete with an ideal tackle frame and feet. While he missed a big chunk of this year with a forearm injury and only played 37 snaps in 2022 (all of them at guard), there’s still a lot of potential in his game at (potentially) a very friendly price tag. 

While the Niners are still benefitting from rookie QB contracts, the big deals they dole out this off-season must take into account what our cap will look like two and three years for now. So it begs the question: how much are we willing to pay for good-but-not-great right tackle play? 

It’s tough to say “let’s take a step back” at the position given our struggles in pass pro against the Cowboys and the Eagles in the playoffs, this could be a situation where a spiking salary cap and a weak tackle market puts McGlinchey out of our range. 

Offensive Guard

UFA: none 
RFA/ERFA: none

Aaron Banks (of “five offensive snaps played as a rookie” fame) stepped into the starting lineup and basically held it down at left guard. Considering the player he replaced, that’s pretty impressive. Now, I wouldn’t say Banks blew me away in any facet of play, but given the consternation Niners fans had in his ability after such a quiet rookie season, boring is nothing to scoff at. 

On the right side, fourth-round rookie Spencer Burford rotated series with all-purpose swing man Daniel Brunskill. As a guy who played a lot of tackle in college and was considered somewhere between the two positions, Burford’s movement skills made him playable immediately, but his lack of experience, power, and polish led the coaching staff to rotating him with Brunskill so that the rookie could see how a seasoned vet approached things while simultaneously getting reps. It worked as well as anyone could have expected and hopefully sets up Burford for an impressive second-year leap. 

Realistically, it’s the second-year development (or in Banks’ case “second-year” development) that gives us the most hope for improvement along the offensive line. While Banks and Burford combined to allow only six sacks on the season, they were far from anchors in pass pro, and if boring is fine for year one as a starter, year two is when you want to see stronger play and specific traits that each player excels at. Due to both players’ age, their physical skill set, and the way the line got increasingly better and more cohesive as the year went on, there’s every reason to believe there’s a next step (or two) for each of our young starting guards. The big question is how big a step that will be and if both will be able to take it this off-season. 

I’d be remiss not to give a shout-out to Daniel Brunskill once again, who—no matter what we ask of him—always seems to be prepared for it. While Burford is expected to become the full-time starter at right guard next year, I’d assume the Niners bring back Brunskill. Both because I don’t think he’ll be particularly expensive and because he provides insurance at all five positions along the offensive line.

Elsewhere on the roster, rookie Nick Zakelj played mostly tackle last year but could kick inside to guard if needed. Although if we’re needing that next year, we’re probably in trouble. Also, blog favorite Jason Poe—last season’s scout team OL of the year—waits in the wings. While his height is lacking, his burst and overall ability is hugely intriguing. He could be a guard or a center, but if he can fight his way into a second-team position at either spot next year, that bodes very well for his future prospects.

Center

UFA: Jake Brendel
RFA/ERFA: none

Despite being thirty years old and on the roster for the past three seasons, Brendel had only played six snaps since he arrived in Santa Clara and was as much of a question mark as our two guards entering 2022. But Brendel acquitted himself nicely, holding the unit together, communicating effectively, and putting up the 7th-highest pass blocking rate of any center this past season. Like the guards, there was nothing in particular that he really excelled at, but he was solid and consistent throughout the year. The major difference between Brendel and the guards? Brendel is thirty years old and currently an unrestricted free agent.

Shanahan has always prioritized the importance of center play, and it’s tough to imagine him dumping a successful center after basically stashing him on the roster for three years without playing him. But the market complicates matters a little bit. Center is a position with few elite players and a fat middle class, meaning you could make the argument to go for a younger player with higher upside or you could say it’s not worth rocking the boat unless you’ve got a guy with top-5 ability in your sights. 

If Brendel departs and we add someone in free agency, there are a few options:

Ethan Pocic, Cleveland: Pocic was mid-at-best for the first four years of his career, finally started putting things together in year five in Seattle, then signed a one-year deal with the Browns last off-season and put up his best season by far. According to PFF, he was the league’s third-best center and fifth-best run-blocker. It’s worth noting that Pocic played under the tutelage of Bill Callahan—one of the best OL coaches in the league—and between two of the highest-paid guards in the NFL in Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio, so there’s a world where he’s no longer a top five center in another environment, but—at 27 years old—he will almost certainly be the most sought after center this off-season.  

Connor McGovern, NY Jets: McGovern has a strong track record over multiple years—putting up three top-10 positional rankings over the past four seasons—and the past two years have come running the same scheme that we do. McGovern turns 30 before next season, so we wouldn’t be getting more than a few months younger at the position, but he’s an option nonetheless.

Garrett Bradbury, Minnesota: A former first-rounder who also has familiarity within the greater Shanahan system, Bradbury was mid-at-best through his rookie contract before seeing an uptick in play in his first season in Kevin O’Connell’s re-tooled offense. Bradbury was drafted so highly largely because he was a converted tight end, so his athleticism and movement skills are elite across the board, but—through his four years in the league—he’s lacked the size and strength to anchor in pass protection. Despite the tantalizing athletic upside, those pass pro issues may just be the case for the rest of his career. 

My best guess is that the market for Brendel isn’t particularly ripe, the Niners prioritize continuity, and he gets re-signed. Something like a two- or three-year deal without a ton of guarantees that we can get out of after a year without punishment. But I do think the Niners try and figure out the development of his heir incumbent this year, whether that’s Poe or someone that they draft this spring. 

If I were the betting type, I’d say the only big ticket contract we may hand out is a multi-year deal to Mike McGlinchey, or—potentially—his replacement. Regardless, I’d expect the Niners to use at least one of their mid-round picks on the offensive line, but that could mean anything from a contender at right tackle, an up-and-coming center, an all-purpose swing, or some combination of the above. While improvement along our offensive line is the priority, our best shot at that given our draft and cap situation is through the continued development of our interior players. 

Go Niners 👍🏈

Off-Season Preview: WRs/TEs

In previous years, someone—typically Deebo or Kittle—would absolutely dominate touches in the passing game (or in Deebo’s case, the passing and running game). While that was great for fantasy owners and it let our guys soak in some much-earned nationwide appreciation, those outrageous target shares were largely the product of a passing attack that was—whether it was due to health, development, or roster construction—short on weapons. Things changed dramatically last season, and 2022 marked the most balanced the Niners’ receiving corps has ever been.

With the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk into a 1,000-yard receiver, the addition of CMC, and (relatively) healthy seasons from both Deebo and Kittle, the Niners spread the love in the passing game more so than they ever have under Shanahan. The result was the most efficient and effective passing offense in the ShanaLynch era. 

With all the big names under contract, our receiving room has very much earned an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” type of approach to this off-season. But the continued growth of our receiving unit in the coming year will have ripple effects on the salary cap decisions we’ll need to make in the next two or three.

Wide Receivers

UFAs: none
RFAs/ERFAs: Jauan Jennings (ERFA)

It’s doubtful there will be any legitimate movement at wideout as all of the team’s receivers are signed for 2023 except for Jennings, who is—as our top slot receiver who we’d only need to offer the veteran minimum—as easy a tender decision as there ever was. The only way the Niners don’t offer him one immediately is if they’re trying to lock him up on a multi-year deal instead. 

Any movement of note will likely happen on the back end of the roster, as the Niners would like to go through the off-season with at least twice the number of wideouts that they currently have. Practice squad holdover and special teamer Tay Martin will certainly be a part of team activities as we move into spring and summer. So will two guys who just inked futures deals with the Niners: Dazz Newsome—a second-year slot/return man with enough YAC upside to make sense as a special teamer/gadget project—and Tyron Johnson—a former five-star wideout with deep ball potential who was thrown onto the field for 12 games as a rookie in 2020 but has bounced between three teams in the two years since. Of those three, Martin seems like the most likely to stick—even if it’s just for special teams purposes—and any additional contributors will either come from free agent discount deals or the draft. Predicting the free agent movements of players vying for a sixth or seventh wideout spot is a bit of a fool’s errand, and we’ll discuss the draft closer to the event. So the emphasis for the Niners turns mostly towards continued development from within.

The Niners will almost certainly exercise Aiyuk’s fifth-year option this spring, giving them another year to wait on making a decision on a potential extension past his rookie deal. This could prove important because—while our cap situation is decently chill this off-season—it’s hard to envision a world where we can afford to keep Aiyuk, Kittle, Deebo, and CMC a year or two down the road. Due to that, 2023 will be a big year for evaluating how all our offensive pieces fit together, and how we plan to jigsaw them together for the next half-decade. 

While Aiyuk made huge strides in his third year in the offense, we’d love to see him add “deep ball threat” to his resume. I know that he’s been hurt more than most by the fact that we don’t huck it down the field often, but if he can truly stretch the field with regularity, we may be able to unlock yet another level of passing game efficiency.

For Deebo, his 864 yards and five scores from scrimmage were less than half of the yards and TDs he put up a year ago. Part of that was due to him missing four games due to injury. Part was the product of a much more balanced passing and rushing attack that didn’t have to force-feed him the ball. But there’s still room for improvement and reason to believe he’ll do just that.

Last year, Deebo spent the off-season away from the team as his agent negotiated a multi-year extension. This year, he’ll be in the building and participating in team activities throughout the spring and summer, which means valuable reps with Lance and (whenever he returns) Purdy—two guys who we took very few snaps beside in the lead-up to last season. All those distractions and hold-ups are now gone. So Deebo will be more free to attack self-improvement.

Many of the better defenses that we faced tried to eliminate Deebo by draping cornerbacks all over him—knowing that press man coverage would allow them extra numbers against the run, would make it easier to deny passes because of how often he runs short-to-intermediate routes, and would put defenders in easier tackling position if he got the ball. While it’s not super likely that Deebo ever becomes a deep ball maven, if he can improve against tight man coverage (and shore up the occasional drop) then we won’t have to lean as heavily on Aiyuk when teams show us Cover 1. That would help us tremendously in 2023 and would certainly factor into future roster decisions regarding both Aiyuk and Samuel.

In the slot, we have two unique different body types and skill sets. Ray-Ray McCloud isn’t often mentioned when talking about our horde of Swiss Army Knife offensive weapons, but he played both receiver and running back in college, and the hope is he’ll be more comfortable in year two in Shanahan’s scheme. We saw higher usage from him down the stretch—in part because Deebo was missing—and his running ability and big-play speed were on display on his 71-yard touchdown run against the Commanders. While our run-heavy nature means he’s unlikely to get massive snaps offensively, there’s hope that he can be deployed more efficiently and given more situations where his speed, shiftiness, and open-field running ability can be put on display.

Part of the reason Ray-Ray’s production won’t be coming from a massive increase in snaps is that our current starting slot receiver—and the biggest wideout we have on roster—has fully solidified himself as a starter over the past year and a half. Jauan Jennings isn’t a tremendous athlete, but he has carved out quite the niche as basically a slot fullback and offensive antagonizer who runs the occasional crosser and makes the (not-so-occasional) clutch third-down grab. While his ceiling may not be astronomical, his personality and play-style mesh perfectly with the Niners’ commitment to the run game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners re-up him on an under-market multi-year deal in hopes that he becomes a bigger, beefier Kendrick Bourne down the road. Jennings will never have the wiggle or smooth athleticism of KB, but he can make up for that with size and brawn if he continues to develop at his current rate.

Finally, last year’s third-rounder Danny Gray was basically a healthy scratch in 2022. While the idea of him blazing past corners and catching deep balls down the sideline was an off-season dream, Gray was always super raw, and when Lance went down, so too did much of Gray’s intended use as a rookie. That said, I’m not worried about his long-term projection. While it’s always a lot cooler when a rookie produces immediately, part of Gray’s appeal was in how raw he was and how—with his incredible speed and athleticism—there was a chance we locked up a bargain as long as we were patient. That said, we need Gray to advance enough this year to be confident that he could play decent snaps in 2024 because—as discussed above—we may need to make some tough decisions at that point.

Tight Ends

UFAs: Tyler Kroft, Ross Dwelley
RFAs/ERFAs: none

Every year our brass discusses bringing in a second tight end to take some of the load off of George Kittle, and—every year—we don’t quite accomplish that goal. It’s tough because Kittle is so valuable both as a blocker and as a receiver, but—with back-to-back snap count percentages in the nineties—getting Kittle off the field more could help preserve his body in both the short- and long-term. Additionally, having a second tight end who can catch the ball (or ideally catch and block) well opens up a lot of value in our 12 personnel play action sets.

While a double tight play action set was the set-up of the play where Purdy got hurt, we—and the Chiefs the game after—liked the double tight play action looks against the Eagles because—like many defenses these days—they have minimized their investment in linebackers and overall size in an attempt to go faster and defend the pass. While you can’t live in double tight personnel, having two reliable receivers at tight end can force defenses to play two-to-three linebackers when they’d prefer to be playing one-to-two. In essence, bolstering our double tight personnel would let us run the ball better from another look and hunt matchups more within another personnel grouping—the two things we like doing most as an offense.

But again, we can’t live in 12 personnel, nor should we be throwing fat stacks down on a second tight end. But while I think we’re past the point of spending legit money on a big-name free agent (remember when we were linked to Austin Hooper coming off a 75-catch season?), I wouldn’t be shocked to see us kick the tires on a lower-cost veteran (perhaps Austin Hooper, three years later, coming off a 41-catch season?) or add a rookie in the middle rounds of the draft.

If we don’t add another body, either Kroft or Dwelley (or both) could return in 2023, but I doubt there will be a mad rush to sign either until closer to training camp. We also still have Charlie Woerner, who—after a promising second season—saw his play and his snap count plummet in the back half of last year. Not sure what happened there, but a return to his 2021 form would—at the very least—assure us of a quality backup in case of injury and give us a bit more wiggle room to swing on an unfinished product in the draft. 

Either way, I’d expect a new body in the tight end room come training camp.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Off-Season Preview: Backfield

I was waiting to write-up something on our new-look coaching staff, but since the dust has yet to settle and multiple decisions (and promotions?) have yet to be made, we’ll jump ahead to the positional previews. With these previews, we’re looking for potential needs and turnover by position group before throwing in some educated guesses as to how those changes may shake out.

Up first is the offensive backfield, which has—for better or worse—never been boring during Shanahan’s five years leading the Niners. Much of that has been due to injuries and the long-term question marks that have stemmed from said injuries. And this year, it’s… same same but different. 

RUNNING BACK

UFAs: None
RFAs/ERFAs: None

A quick refresher on the types of free agents that exist in the NFL. The Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) are the guys who you typically think of when you think of free agents. Their contracts are up and they’re fully on the open market. Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) are players with three accrued seasons in the NFL. We basically have the right of first refusal with any of these players as we can tender them at one of a variety of compensation levels and—depending on what tender level we choose—we get to match any outside offer and (in most cases) get a set amount of draft compensation in return if we fail to do so. Finally, there are Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs), also known as “definitely not free agents but we call them that.” These players have less than three accrued seasons in the NFL, their tender is for the CBA minimum, and once they’re offered a tender they can’t negotiate with any other teams.

Let’s start with the easiest position group first. All four of our top running backs (and Juice) are under contract for 2023. All four (and Juice) will return. 

Despite losing his starting job to Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell is a vital part of our offense and (hopefully) one we can keep healthy next year. He’s arguably a better pure runner, seemingly always explodes through the right hole, and has the most burst of anyone in our backfield. Behind him, the rookies Jordan Mason and Ty Davis-Price will vie for touches, and—since this is a Shanahan offense—it wouldn’t be surprising to see either perform well if given the chance. Mitchell, Ty Davis-Price, and Mason will combine for just over a $3M cap hit.

The only real question with this group is when the Niners restructure CMC’s contract and what that will look like. While McCaffrey isn’t a free agent until 2026 he has ZERO guaranteed money left on his deal and will almost certainly want to restructure a new deal that locks in some cash on his side and opens up cap room on ours.

QUARTERBACK

UFAs: Jimmy Garoppolo
RFAs/ERFAs: None

The Niners enter the off-season with two quarterbacks on roster: Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. According to much of the national discourse, this is apparently a catastrophic situation for a team so talented and ready to contend. But it actually seems pretty simple to me.

Lance should be cleared to go within weeks while Purdy, who will undergo an internal brace surgery on his torn UCL, is expected to be out six months before he can return. That means Lance will run the offense through the off-season and—depending on the timing and progress of Purdy’s rehab—into training camp. The coaching staff won’t need to make any kind of decision on who the starter is until Purdy returns to full health, and—I can assure you—they won’t. Nor should they. 

While Purdy’s intelligence and gamesmanship were incredibly impressive as a rookie, he’s still an undersized player coming off a major throwing arm injury and teams will have a better plan to attack his tendencies in 2023. While I’m bullish on his ability to continue to get smarter and better, the hope was that he’d be able to spend the off-season doing just that and adding a few more MPHs on his fastball. Now, he loses an entire off-season of reps, and the idea of him improving physically in year two—either in arm strength or overall bulk—is likely out the window. Granted, Purdy was a perfect 8-0 in games that he finished, so he can clearly play at this level (physical limitations and all), but this was far from the off-season we’d hoped for as we prepared for Purdy’s sophomore encore.

At the same time, Trey Lance needs as many reps as physically possible, and—while practice reps are nothing like regular season ones—having another off-season as the man leading our offense should only improve his consistency and understanding of the game. I don’t really understand the push to “move on from Lance.” Even though he’s now one year older, he’s still younger than Purdy, would be the youngest starting QB in the league—save for a few potential rookie starters—and is still one of the greatest balls of physical potential in the game. There’s quite simply not enough info for us to know what we have in Lance, and—while the ticking clock of the rookie contract is ever-present—moving on from him without the knowledge of what he can become in this system and at the nadir of his market value makes little sense on every level. It’s not all that hard to imagine Lance—with a few more reps—having a Jalen Hurts-esque emergence with more time as a starter, and I’m sure that before this season the Niners were hoping he’d be well on that track by now.

While I think Purdy’s undefeated string to end the season means it’s his job to lose, it is impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster. And it is absolutely impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster who are on rookie contracts. As stated before, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy will combine to make just over $10M against the cap next year, a figure which is less than Mitch Trubisky’s 2023 cap hit and four to five times less than the hits of the top ten highest paid quarterbacks in the league. That’s also a number that’s sure to increase given the new deals likely coming for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa(?), etc. in the coming months. The single greatest advantage you can have from a roster-building perspective is a truly elite quarterback. The second-greatest advantage is having a starter on a rookie contract. We have two. And while that advantage doesn’t exactly stack, there’s no one who appreciates the value of a backup quarterback better than us. After all, we’ve had to start a backup in five of six seasons under Shanahan. 

That said, we will need a third quarterback and—given our injury history at the position and the fact that Purdy is out for so long—that guy should be a low-cost veteran who can play in a pinch. So what are our options?

For the purposes of this list, I’m scratching off anyone guaranteed to get starter money on the free market. So no Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, etc.

The definition of insanity…

Jimmy Garoppolo: No. While we should all appreciate him for what he’s done for the squad over the years and how he handled the Trey Lance situation, the worst way to secure a position group from injury is to rely on the health of the guy who gets injured more so than anyone else. 

Shanahan has already vetoed any idea of Jimmy coming back, and—while the remark seemed blunt in the end-of-season press conference Shanahan definitely didn’t want to attend—I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s because Jimmy’s injury woes did us dirty one last time this post-season. Remember, when Jimmy went down we picked up Josh Johnson off the street as a backup, but we also added Jacob Eason to our practice squad. So why wasn’t Eason on the active roster for the NFC Championship game? My guess is because that would have meant we’d had to reserve four spots for the position. 

Since there was hope Jimmy G would be back in case of a deep playoff run, the Niners couldn’t keep him on IR, and IR decisions have to be finalized before the playoffs start. The Niners clearly thought that having Jimmy G as their third QB in the playoffs (or second, depending on how he rehabbed) was a better bet than bringing up Jacob Eason, a physically talented player but one who has only ten career pass attempts for a reason. This seemed reasonable at the time, especially since the large majority of teams only keep two quarterbacks on the active roster for any given game. Unfortunately for us, our quarterback injuries just hit different. 

Teddy Bridgewater: see: not signing someone who is outrageously injury prone.

Young Cast-Offs

Baker Mayfield: Laugh all you want, but I was super pro-Baker when he was free on waivers and we needed a backup for Purdy. However, the Rams swooped in first, and Baker played… fine. I would be absolutely shocked if he were to get a starting role or even a chance at competing for one unless a team brings in a raw rookie for him to battle with, but I’d assume he’s looking for something more than a third quarterback spot. And while it’s hard to evaluate what Baker is really like in a locker room, it’s hard to claim he’s a better film guy than the names on this list who have closer to ten years of experience in the league.

Sam D’Arnold: see: Baker Mayfield but with higher variance.

Drew Lock: I’ve honestly never hated the talent, and he’s still only 26, but—like the names above—he may be looking for a better path towards playing time than as our third-stringer, and he’s only been in the league a couple years.

Scrappy McScrappersons

Taylor Heinecke: He’s gritty, tough, and his teammates seem to love him, but he may not be the type of QB who would necessarily thrive in the Niners’ offense. His accuracy wavers. His turnovers come in waves. And while he wins, it’s rarely because he’s stringing together long drives via an efficient passing game. Pure on-field performance isn’t the only factor to consider in this acquisition, but there’s an argument he’s a better fit as a spot starter for a team than a clipboard guy leading film sessions. 

Jacoby Brissett: Like Heinecke, I think his career is still more in the “break glass in case of emergency” stage, and he may prefer another shot at a backup gig after starting 11 games last season. But I’ve always heard good things about his approach, and we could certainly do worse as a QB room tutor who we weren’t terrified of getting real snaps.

CJ Beathard/Nick Mullens/Nate Sudfeld: They’d know the playbook…

Cooper Rush: There was never a real QB controversy in Dallas (nor should there have been), but Rush did hold the team together and pilot them to a 4-1 record while Dak was out with injury last year. Now it is worth noting that he completed only 58% of his passes, never threw for over 235 yards, and fell to the Earth with a three-interception game in his final start against the Eagles, but, again, we’re looking for a third quarterback.

Old Heads

Tom Brady: He retired. Let’s not do this unless he starts waffling.

Andy Dalton: If we’re adding a veteran addition, we’re looking for a two-part role. First, the guy needs to be able to play in a pinch if (god fucking forbid) we need to play our third quarterback again. Second, they need to be good in the film room and with a clipboard because that’s the role we actually want them playing. Dalton makes sense on both levels, but more on the latter.

Matt Ryan: He’s a 37-year-old coming off the worst season of his career on a team in full rebuilding mode who isn’t even a free agent. And while that sentence may not get the people going, the likelihood of him getting a buyout from the Colts and saving Indy $17M seems highly likely. Ryan is remarkably durable, having started every game of the season in a dozen different years and—until he was benched last year—never fewer than 14 in a single season. More importantly, he’s won an MVP running Shanahan’s offense, and—while those days are long gone—he could be a great mentor for our two young signal callers. Finally—if he does get released—no part of his contract would count against our comp pick formula this off-season.

Case Keenum: A 34-year-old poor man’s Andy Dalton? Not the sexiest description but the price tag might be.

Whoever we add, I doubt we’ll be in a huge hurry to bring them in. This year’s quarterback market is flush with starter-ish types and there will likely be a bit of a wait-and-see approach from the second tier of QBs as they assess the market. Everyone’s going to want to take their shot at a No.1 or No.2 gig before resigning themselves to being a full-on clipboard quarterback—even on a team where those quarterbacks play more than anyone would like. But once the dust settles, I still think there will be plenty of viable options to help tutor Purdy and Lance.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Farewell, Coach Ryans

It seemed written in stone as early as September, but there was always the selfish hope that few enough jobs would be available or enough out-of-touch owners would hire Jeff Saturday for us to get one more year of DeMeco Ryans as our defensive coordinator. Alas—the man who was labeled a “future head coach” before he was even our DC was never long for the Niners, and he just signed a six-year contract to become the next head coach of the Houston Texans.

Congratulations to Coach Ryans. The promotion was well deserved, and he will be sorely missed. Ryans took a defense that was a top ten unit in back-to-back seasons under Robert Saleh, successfully maneuvered it through the landmine that was our cornerback room in 2021, then rode late season momentum and an improved secondary to a #1 defensive rating in every metric imaginable this year. Universally lauded for his brilliant scheming, innate leadership qualities, and the ability for him to routinely get his guys playing like their hair was on fire, Ryans played a big role in the emergence of Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shair. After crossing paths with Coach Shanahan while in his playing days in Houston, Ryans was one of Shanahan’s first hires, quickly ascending from a defensive quality control coach to an inside linebackers coach, and—after five short years with the Niners—is now off to lead his own team. While Houston is kind of a shitshow and their owner is the unlikeable real-life version of Tommy Boy, the team is loaded with draft capital and cap space and—with a few smart moves—can contend more quickly than people think (it helps that they reside in the AFC South).

Lastly, since DeMeco Ryans is the second minority member of our staff to get poached this off-season (Ran Carthon was named GM of the Titans) we’ve got more third-round comp picks incoming. While there’s a weird, kind-of-bullshit loophole in the rule that says we get three picks over three years rather than four over two (the standard rate is two comp picks over two years per hire), it’s still a massive deal for a team that finds itself light on early round picks next year. I believe we’re the only team to be affected by this loophole (and this is the second time we’ve run into it in two years) because of course we are, but oh well. Score one for us. Score one for finding absolute beast coaches by not being racist. Hooray!

As for what happens next, that’s what the rest of this write-up is for. Unlike in 2020 when Robert Saleh left and we had Ryans ready to take the mantle, there isn’t an obvious candidate to replace our departed defensive coordinator this time around. But given we were just the #1 ranked defense in football, have All-Pros on all three levels, and have sent two DCs to head coaching jobs in the past three years, one would think we won’t be short on potential candidates.

What We’re Looking For

First and foremost we’re looking for an excellent coach. This isn’t the olden days of the NFL where a team could get by with an average play-caller on one side of the ball. If you don’t believe me, who’s the worst OC or DC from this year’s final four? How about last year? Or the year before that? When the names that come across your head are the Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan or three-time Super Bowl winner Steve Spagnuolo you know you can’t get by with a scrub on one side of the ball, and I doubt Shanahan—one of the game’s most analytical minds—has any interest in bringing in someone who isn’t buttoned up with their shit to the highest level.

Other important notes include:

• They can work with the wide 9 and Kris Kocurek: Our DL could shuffle through a lot of bodies this off-season but Kris Kocurek’s ability to milk plus play out of older veterans or discarded guys on rookie deals is one of our greatest advantages as an organization. When you can manufacture depth at one of the league’s most expensive and important positions despite massive turnover in your two deep every season, you have an innate competitive advantage, and we have that with Kocurek. Thus, it’s important that any new DC’s scheme meshes with our aggressive one-gapping front-of-preference.

• They run primarily zone: The greatest personnel advantage we have compared to anyone else in the league is the insane range of our linebackers. While Warner and Greenlaw can stick with guys in man coverage as well, we best utilize their talents allowing them to eliminate the middle of the field in a way that most teams—who minimize the importance and value of off-ball linebackers—cannot. Perhaps more importantly, our secondary—with the exception of Charvarius Ward—is much more suited for zone coverage. It would be a shame to waste a talent like Hufanga running down the field in man coverage on speedy slot receivers when he could be patrolling, reading patterns, and making plays on the ball.

• Clear communicators. Strong motivators: By now I think a lot of the fire that comes from our defense is pretty inherent in leaders like Fred Warner, so I’m not super worried about that. But the ability for our defenders to play aggressive and physical is often tied to their preparation and confidence in their assignments. Saleh and Ryans were excellent communicators. The next DC must be the same.

Familiar Faces

If we’re looking in-house, secondary coach Cory Undlin is the most likely candidate. The 51-year-old has been a defensive coach in the NFL for nearly twenty years and—since he’s been our defensive pass game specialist for the past two years—is already closer to a coordinator than the other defensive assistants. Our secondary has two coaches—and safeties coach Daniel Bullocks has a strong reputation—so, as always, it’s hard to give anyone accurate credit for anything, but our DBs have vastly improved over the past two seasons. While the outside corner position was a nightmare for the majority of 2021, Ambry Thomas emerged from the rubble as a solid option down the stretch and second-year players Deommodore Lenoir and Talanoa Hufanga showed explosive growth in 2022. 

Undlin actually was a defensive coordinator as recently as 2020, so he has experience in the role, but that was with a 5-11 Lions team that fired its head coach midway through the season. Unsurprisingly, the results were ugly:

2022 - DVOA - 32nd // Pass - 32nd // Rush - 27th // Pressure Rate: 32nd

As for any of these ratings, it’s best not to put all the blame or all of the credit on the defensive coordinator—especially when the head man gets fired mid-season—but that’s a tough resume when stacked up against the big names that we’re bringing in for interviews.

If there’s another in-house candidate it’s probably Johnny Holland, as he was the run game specialist under Saleh and has been with the team as a linebackers coach since Shanahan’s arrival. However, Holland had to step away from the team for parts of last year for multiple myeloma treatments. While the players love him and the linebackers in particular consider him family, who knows how interested Holland would even be in taking on greater stresses and responsibilities as a defensive coordinator? My guess would be he sticks around as our linebackers coach, which will be as important as ever with Ryans moving on.

While not an internal candidate, another guy we’d be familiar with is Joe Woods. He was the DB coach and passing game coordinator during our Super Bowl run, but he departed shortly thereafter for the defensive coordinator position under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. Largely credited for updating our coverage schemes on the back end, there was talk that the Niners tried to keep Woods by telling him he would have been the next man up when Saleh got a head gig. However, that’s only speculation—especially given there was already talk back then that Ryans was the likely heir apparent—and it’s TBD how interested the Niners would be in a reunion after three lackluster years as a DC in Cleveland.

2020 - DVOA - 23rd // Pass - 25th // Rush - 23rd // Pressure Rate - 24th
2021 - DVOA - 11th // Pass — 7th // Rush - 23rd // Pressure Rate - 17th
2022 - DVOA - 23rd // Pass - 16th // Rush - 28th // Pressure Rate - 27th

While the Cleveland Browns are still the Cleveland Browns, that’s still a defense with one of the top edge rushers in the game and decent talent along the defensive line and in the secondary. A reunion where Woods took over a spot in the secondary from a departed assistant may make some sense, but we wouldn’t exactly be buying high on him if we were to make him a DC.

cooking up ways to murder slant routes

The OGs

The most popular name that’s been getting circulated basically since DeMeco Ryans turned down a second head coach interview with the Vikings a year ago is our guy Vic Fangio, who is slated to meet with the Niners later this week. Niners fans know Fangio well, as he was the architect behind our nasty Harbaugh defenses, and—when he didn’t take a DC position last year—many stamped him as our DC-in-waiting. Currently serving as a defensive consultant for one of his many proteges in Philadelphia, Fangio’s defense is as sought after as Shanahan’s offense. His footprints are all across the league, and it’s not surprising why.

Here are the splits from Fangio’s last stint as a DC in Chicago (pressure rate wasn’t recorded before 2018)…

2015 - DVOA - 31st // Pass -  25th // Rush -  31st // Pressure Rate - n/a
2016 - DVOA - 22nd // Pass - 18th // Rush - 28th // Pressure Rate - n/a
2017 - DVOA - 14th // Pass - 15th // Rush - 18th // Pressure Rate - n/a
2018 - DVOA - 1st // Pass -  1st // Rush - 2nd // Pressure Rate - 12th

…and, just for fun, here are his splits from his time in San Francisco before that.

2011 - DVOA - 3rd // Pass - 8th // Rush - 1st
2012 - DVOA - 4th // Pass - 7th // Rush - 1st
2013 - DVOA - 13th // Pass - 11th // Rush - 15th
2014 - DVOA - 5th // Pass - 6th // Rush - 10th 

While there was a clear adjustment period in Chicago as he retooled their defensive personnel and shifted them from a 4-3 to a 3-4, the end results were classic Fangio. But that adjustment period is worth noting. Fangio loves the Niners. He’s visited team headquarters multiple times over the past year and—back in 2017—he wanted to leave Chicago to return to the bay under Shanahan, but the Bears blocked his request. Yes, “sources” claimed Fangio had committed to the Dolphins just days ago, but the idea of him flipping to the Niners is very much a possibility.

While Fangio’s interest in the position seems legitimate, the bigger question is how likely his scheme meshes with Nick Bosa and Kris Kocurek. Fangio’s defense has evolved in step with the passing attacks that now run rampant through the NFL, and it’s not impossible to pair his defense with more one-gap and wide nine principles (case in point: Eagles). Also, his defense—like all others—spends a large amount of time in nickel formations due to the decreasing size and increasing speed of offenses across the country, and nickel defenses typically differ less than base sets. But after our 2022 performance and the four-season run we’ve had on defense, we are definitely in “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” territory. I have to assume much of Shanahan’s conversation with Fangio will be as much about what Fangio would NOT change as what he would bring to the table.

But if that meeting goes well and there’s a healthy middle ground that Fangio and our current staff are excited about, this would be a home run hire. Fangio may not be an up-and-coming head coaching candidate or a minority candidate who—if he left for a head coaching job—would net us more of those sweet sweet third-round comp picks that we love so dearly, but there’s a very real world where Fangio just wants to settle in and coach bomb ass defenses until the end of time. And if that’s the case then, yeah, it would be pretty sick if he was on our team.

Another guy who we’re bringing in for an interview this week is Steve Wilks, long-time Ron Rivera protege, and—most recently—the Carolina Panthers’ interim head coach. Wilks was a finalist for the head coaching gig in Carolina, had near unanimous support for the gig from his locker room, and did an admirable job finishing 6-6 while piloting a team that started 1-5 and played sad quarterback roulette with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker this season. This is a team that was a DJ Moore helmet penalty away from a playoff berth this season, and while they—like everyone else in the NFC South—weren’t actually “good,” the job Wilks performed was far better than anything the Panthers ever could have imagined.

Wilks has bounced around for a while after his last shot as a head man saw him getting saddled with the worst OL in NFL history, a rookie Josh Rosen, and an impatient owner with an affinity for Big 12 coaches with losing records. Before that, he was a part of Ron Rivera’s golden era of Carolina Panthers football, coaching DBs for 5 years and being an assistant head coach for 2 before adding defensive coordinator to his resume in 2017. That season the Panthers had the following splits:

2017 - DVOA - 8th // Pass - 11th // Rush - 6th

Wilks had one more stop as an NFL DC in 2019, when he was with the Browns for one year…

2019 - DVOA - 24th // Pass - 18th // Rush - 30th // Pressure Rate - 12th

…before they cleaned house and brought in Stefanski. Not the most impressive numbers in Cleveland but—like with the Panthers this past season—it’s hard to blame the coordinators when the ship is sinking right before their eyes. This was, after all, the Freddie Kitchens year.

Speaking of former head coaches being put in tough spots due to no fault of their own, Gus Bradley is a name that may get connected to us if we don’t hire someone from the three outsiders that we’re known to be interviewing this week. Although our defense has greatly diverged from the Seattle 3 scheme that Bradley took over after Dan Quinn departed the Pacific Northwest, the former Jaguars head man did pilot a top ten defense as recently as 2018, and that was while working under then-Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn.

I’m not going to list the stats of all three of his years as DC with the Chargers (let’s just say, 2018 was the peak) because I think we secure one of the three dudes interviewing in the next few days. But when Lynn’s staff was cleaned out, Bradley hopped between the Raiders and—last year—the Colts, putting up very respectable numbers as DC considering they fired their coach mid-season and hired a dude with zero experience to take over.

2022 - DVOA - 14th // Pass - 18th // Rush - 16th // Pressure Rate - 15th

Again, I don’t expect Bradley to be the guy.

The Young Bloods

Consider this the “likely future head coach” section. These dudes are younger, less proven, and lack head coach experience, but they have been getting the kind of talk that DeMeco Ryans was getting just a year or so ago.

First up is the last of the three names who have been confirmed to be getting interviews this week and that’s Washington’s defensive backs coach Chris Harris. The seven-year NFL vet just wrapped up his third season as the Commanders’ DB coach after spending another four as the assistant DBs coach with the Chargers under Anthony Lynn. This is where my knowledge taps out as it’s basically impossible to evaluate a relatively new position coach working for teams that I couldn’t care less about, but—with requests to be interviewed by both the Titans and the Bears—he’s clearly a rising star in the coaching circuit who Lynn certainly vouched for.

That said, this would be a massive promotion for Harris, as the rumors connecting him to the Titans and Bears are for pass game coordinator/secondary coach roles, NOT a defensive coordinator position. That’s not to say this couldn’t be the right hire (after all, we are the team that promoted DeMeco Ryans to defensive coordinator within three years of his first coaching gig), but it would be a huge career jump with lots of question marks.

The final candidate that I’m cramming in here is a bit of a homer pick, but I also think he’d be a slam dunk hire. Ejiro Evero, who just wrapped up his first season as the Broncos’ DC and who took head coaching interviews with four of the five head coaching openings this off-season, was the DBs coach when I briefly played at UC Davis, and his work on the defensive side of the ball was the only bright spot in the horrid dumpster fire that was the Broncos’ 2022 season.

2022 - DVOA - 10th // Pass - 7th // Rush - 20th // Pressure Rate - 26th

For a big chunk of the season the Broncos were ranked in the top three of a lot of these categories, but eventually—as defenses with no support and fired coaches tend to do—the unit started to crack down the stretch. Even still, a top-10 mark in one of the better offensive divisions in football is nothing to take lightly and Evero has been getting rave reviews all season while helping Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain to All-Pro honors despite his top two edge rushers going down early to injury or getting traded for picks. Evero came up through the coaching ranks under Monte Kiffin, Dom Capers, Wade Phillips, Raheem Morris, and—over five seasons as an assistant with the Niners—Vic Fangio, and he’s been lauded for his flexibility to fit his scheme to his personnel, his strong communication skills, and his ability to keep the defense focused in a season when the offense regularly turned the ball over and put up the fewest points in franchise history.

I have no idea if Sean Payton will attempt to retain Evero, if Evero will want to stick around after being passed up for the Denver head coach job, if the Broncos will even let him interview with other teams (they blocked the Falcons but that was before they hired Payton), or if the Niners have any interest, but I think he would be a great fit. And, FWIW, while Coach Evero wasn’t my position coach in school, I can vouch that he is incredibly smart and a super nice guy.

Time will tell what direction the Niners go with their next defensive coordinator, but given how much talent the incoming coach will have to work with, I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a hire within the next few days.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Niners Post-Mortem 2022

Same, bruh. Same

When every commentator and talking head starts parroting back the phrase “you have to give the Eagles credit,” you know that if one thing is certain, you do NOT have to give the Eagles credit. They showed up and did NOT lose the only two healthy quarterbacks on their roster. They showed up and did NOT get absolutely hosed by a trash officiating crew all game. But they DID gloat and talk shit all day—as if beating a team without a quarterback was somehow an impressive achievement—and then, as Trent Williams boiled over and summoned all challengers, they promptly decided they were NOT really about that action and backed away. V impressive. Much tough.

Welcome to an extra salty edition of Niners Nonsense, as this was possibly the most frustrating Niners game of my life. There’s not going to be much in-depth analysis of the atrocity of last weekend because it really comes down to this: you can’t win without a quarterback. Not figuratively. Literally. When you no longer have an operational quarterback on the roster, you’re not going to win.

Luck (or lack thereof). This was basically the definition of a game where “nothing goes your way,” and it just happened to occur against a team that is probably one of the luckiest that we’ve seen in quite some time. Luck is not a truly quantifiable stat, but I’m backing that claim by checking in on a stat that—in a sport as violent as football—is largely attributed to good (or bad) fortune: injuries. 

Every single member of the Eagles’ 53-man roster was healthy enough to play on Sunday. Not a single player held an injury designation. And of their original two-deep, only Derek Barnett—who went down in September and is a part of the team’s deepest position—wasn’t healthy enough for this game. In a conference championship weekend that was hugely affected by the Niners running out of quarterbacks, injuries to Mahomes, Kelce, and a handful of the Chiefs receivers, and a Bengals offensive line that just recently had to shuffle in three new starters, the Eagles being 100% healthy was an outrageous product of good fortune. 

Speaking of luck, let’s update the list of quarterbacks that the Eagles have beaten this year: Jared Goff (before he was good), Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence (before he was good), Carson Wentz (long after he was good), Kyler Murray, Cooper Rush, Kenny Pickett, Davis Mills, the ghost of Matt Ryan, an injured Aaron Rodgers who didn’t finish the game, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones (3x), and N/A. Their losses were to Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinecke, and Dak Prescott. This team is about to go to the Super Bowl after beating a sixth-seeded Giants team that finished the season 2-5-1 and a team with no quarterbacks.

If that’s not luck, I don’t know what is.

They are who we thought they were… One of the most frustrating elements about this game was the fact that it appeared that our coaching staff came in with a superior game plan, but the quarterback injuries prevented us from ever taking advantage. 

It’s impossible to say what our offense would have looked like when our quarterback went down six plays into our first drive, but it’s worth noting that we’d already picked up two relatively easy first downs and had made it to midfield prior to Brock Purdy’s injury. Even when Josh Johnson was thrown in (and he looked terrible), our offense was still springing dudes open—particularly in the second level across the middle of the field. But Johnson—as we probably should have expected given he’s a fourth-string journeyman who we picked up off the street two months ago—just couldn’t get them the ball. 

Despite a complete inability to throw the ball after the first series, there were seams on the ground. Christian McCaffrey picked up 84 yards rushing on 15 carries for a healthy 5.6 average—numbers that you can only assume would have improved if the Eagles weren’t allowed to send all 11 men at the running game for an entire half of football. Again, it wasn’t a big enough sample size to see what the Niners had planned on offense, but the early returns were quite promising before our season dissolved behind a torn UCL. 

On defense DeMeco Ryans and his staff had a strong enough game plan to win this contest—effectively reverse-engineering what the Eagles do on offense and punishing them for their simplicity. But as the game went on and the defense’s execution wavered with exhaustion, sloppy penalties, and just plain shitty penalties, the Eagles were able to take advantage in a quantity-over-quality approach.  

The Eagles may have scored on the first drive but nearly half of their yardage on that drive was due to the 29-yard fourth-down catch that wasn’t actually a catch. That non-completion would wind up Jalen Hurts’ only deep ball of the game. With a game plan that involved us hemming Hurts into the pocket, making him beat us with his arm, and keying the limited route combinations that the Eagles run, we successfully eliminated that entire facet of their offense. Hurts finished 15-of-25 for 121 yards on a 4.8 yards per attempt average—his worst passing performance of the season. Take out that deep ball that wasn’t a deep ball and he threw for 92(!) yards. While I have enough faith in Hurts’ approach to the game and work ethic to believe he very well may develop into the passer that his 2022 statistics would indicate he already is, we basically pantsed this passing attack and showed massive flaws in its competency level and long-term structure. Are there any teams left in the bracket that are talented enough on defense to watch this film and take advantage? TBD. But a massive Hurts extension is coming soon, which means the Eagles won’t be able to skirt by on talent alone. They’ll need to evolve their offense heading into next year or else they may risk hitting a Goff-Rams wall.

As a runner, Hurts did find some room on the ground… once we were already down three touchdowns. Even that success—in a desperate attempt to make it sound like Hurts had more to do with this win than he did—was overstated by the announcers. He finished with 39 yards on 11 carries. Not exactly world-beating numbers. 

The most successful element of the Eagles’ offense was clearly their running game as a whole, but even that should be taken with a massive grain of salt. The Eagles carried the ball 44 times for 148 yards on 3.4 yards per carry. They wore us down with quantity and found some nice seams on the backside cutbacks, but they were greatly aided not only by our lack of a quarterback to keep our offense on the field but by how each of their offensive drives was extended—sometimes multiple times—by trash penalties.

…and we let em off the hook. The officiating crew dominated us on defense. Yes, we had some dumb fouls. But it’s worth noting that—of the Eagles’ five scoring drives—four included first downs due to penalty and the only one that didn’t was the drive that had the fourth down “completion” that clearly wasn’t a catch. Massive assist from the zebras in this one, and while the final score was well out of reach, the way each bad call went against us in pivotal moments of the game was comical.  

On the day, the Eagles gained 6 first downs through the air (5, if you don’t include the non-catch) and 7 first downs via penalty. Three of those penalties—the Jimmie Ward three-yard “pass interference” on third-and-7, the roughing the kicker that should have been—by definition—running into the kicker because it was contact on his kicking leg, not his plant leg, and the Dre Greenlaw unnecessary roughness when he was trying to punch out the ball before the whistle was blown—gave the Eagles a new set of downs after they had already been stopped on either third or fourth down. Even if we gift the Eagles a long field goal conversion regardless of Greenlaw’s penalties, those flags led directly to 14 points. 

In a game where we didn’t need any more obstacles, the refs repeated an absolutely pathetic trend that continued all the way to the final whistle of the afternoon game—reacting to crowd noise from a home fanbase because you’re too scared to do your job correctly. I wouldn’t work in crane lifts if I was afraid of heights. Maybe find another vocation if you don’t have the guts to go against the drunken dude screaming from row eleven. That’s not actually Randall Cunningham yelling in your ear, that’s Big Ted from the warehouse who’s no longer allowed within a hundred feet of schools or Wawas.

They should teach this in training: If a play is over and you haven’t thrown a flag, but—after hearing noise from the crowd—you think you should, treat it like your dick and keep it in your pants. Cause no one wants to see that shit.

Boston called, they want their “incorrigible people as a personality” back

Am I gonna have to root for the fucking Chiefs? Nick Sirianni has done a great job with this football team, but that dude is skyrocketing up the NFL’s “punchable face” power rankings. Raise your hand if you don’t know a convicted felon who looks just like him. An uncle who’s not allowed to Thanksgiving anymore? Did they pick him out of the local drunk tank or did an AI create him from aggregate off of every henchman in a Scorsese knock-off whose one line is calling someone a “broad” or a racial slur? 

Word of advice: if anyone ever describes a man as someone who “embodies their city” and that city is Philadelphia, make sure not to let that man date your sister, watch your dog, or operate any kind of heavy machinery without supervision. If Sirianni doesn’t have “frat bro with a psychosexual affinity for hazing who blacks out and breaks down crying twice a week” energy, I don’t know who does.

But of course, since he coaches for a team whose city’s own nickname is a play on how everyone in that city is a raging asshole, get ready for two weeks of puff pieces about how being a dick is somehow synonymous with charm. I’m sure Sirianni isn’t as bad as the cartoon character he seems to be, but I’ve said it once and I’ll say it a thousand times: there is no positive correlation between being a dick and having success. If you’re great at something, it’s not cause you’re a dick. You just like being a dick.

Cheesesteaks are cool tho. 

Until next time. This wasn’t a game where we ran out of steam. Or where our quarterback shelled up. Or where—like last year—we ran out of bodies and couldn’t overcome a talent deficit. It was just terrible, terrible luck on all fronts. And it’s only made worse by the fact that I absolutely thought we would have won that game and—for the second year in a row—felt we would have had a good matchup in the Super Bowl. Last year we were the hottest team by the end of the season, but not the best. This year, there was a legitimate claim that we were both. This was another lost opportunity for a Super Bowl title, and championship windows are notorious for being smaller than anyone expects. That’s why this game stings the way it does.

On the bright side, we’ve been to three of the past four NFC championships, the core of our team is strong (and mostly young), and our two-deep at quarterback is about to cost 1/4 to 1/5th of the price of upcoming contracts for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, etc. The impending departure of DeMeco Ryans will hurt, and there’s lots of roster maneuvering and shuffling to be had, but we’re not going anywhere. 

I’m well aware that patience is harder to preach in the game of football than in any other sport. The short careers, the single elimination playoffs, the way games, seasons, and sometimes franchises seem to hinge on one bad bounce, bad play, or bad call—everything about the sport hammers home the importance of the now. But the lessons of the past help shape the future. They make up the foundation upon which great teams are built. After every setback, this team and this locker room have come back hungrier and stronger. Here’s hoping this disappointment—like the many before it—fuels this team for greater things to come and that—when our luck finally matches our ability—we’ll be prepared to seize the moment.

I, for one, believe that will be the case. 

Go Niners 👍🏈