Off-Season Preview: OL
The #1 way that 2022 could have gone sideways was if our new-look interior line hadn’t been up to the task. Luckily, our three new starters played about as well as we could have asked for, and—just as importantly—our OL was mostly healthy throughout the year. This helped power an offense that rushed for the seventh-most yards in the league and allowed the sixth-fewest sacks. However, our OL wasn’t the mauling run blocking unit of years past and we definitely got heated up a bit in our last two matchups—even if those games were against the two best pass rushes in football. So while we were all pleasantly surprised by our OL’s performance last year, improvements are still needed.
Offensive Tackle
UFA: Mike McGlinchey
RFA/ERFA: Colton McKivitz (RFA)
Trent Williams continues to be the best offensive tackle in football, and it is not particularly close. According to PFF, he was once again the top-rated tackle, tops in run blocking, and fifth in pass pro. While his overall rating dipped from his 2021 level of “this is the best rating anyone has ever gotten at any position” to just plain “this is the best tackle in the world right now,” we have been and continue to be thrilled to have Williams rag-dolling grown men on our blindside.
Although there’s been rumors of a flirtation with retirement bouncing about the internet, it doesn’t seem like something Williams is genuinely contemplating at the moment, and—on the flip side—there’s a decent chance the Niners actually approach Williams about a contract restructuring to free up more cash in the present. 2023 marks the last of the guaranteed money on Williams’ contract, so if he’s confident he wants to play for a few more years, a re-structuring could make sense for both parties and open up quite a bit of cap space.
Opposite Williams, the much-maligned Mike McGlinchey put together a solid-but-unspectacular season. He’ll always be a better run blocker than pass protector, but he’s put in a lot of work over the past years to limit the big whiffs in pass pro that much of the fanbase has known him for. He is, for all intents and purposes, an above-average-to-good right tackle who is narrowly on the right side of 30, and that means he’ll certainly have suitors on the open market. According to Spotrac, McGlinchey’s market value is an estimated $14.8M/year and that seems relatively accurate (if not on the low side). McGlinchey has been vocal about his interest in returning to the bay, where both his fiancee and many of his friends are from, but there’s a very real world where we get priced out of retaining his services. In the simplest of terms, we can definitely do worse than McGlinchey, and—unless one of our internal candidates or a mid-to-late round draft pick surpasses expectations—we won’t be able to do better without shelling out loads of cap space. So what’s the plan?
I’d say it’s a hair less than 50/50 we re-sign McGlinchey, with the team wanting him back but his price tag rising out of our range, but—first thing’s first—we’re going to re-sign Colton McKivitz. While he lost his spot as the team’s top backup tackle early in the year, there was some talk that was due to injury, and he played well in limited snaps this season. The second clubhouse leader to replace McGlinchey would be soon-to-be-third-year player Jaylon Moore, who started two games in place of Trent Williams last season and provides considerably more athletic upside at the position. Neither are slam dunk replacements as a full-time right tackle, but there’s absolutely a world where the Niners roll with that duo—hoping that two of them (plus any incoming rookies) could net a serviceable starter and a flexible backup or two behind him.
If the Niners do plan to dip into the free agent market, there’s a number of different directions they could go:
NOTE: I’ll be referencing PFF’s scores in these write-ups because I am no OL expert, and a number of these teams I just don’t watch. I’m well aware that it’s not a perfect metric, but it is one of the only available statistical measures for linemen. So… better than nothing.
Kaleb McGary, Atlanta: A former first-round draft pick who was considered enough of a disappointment that Atlanta didn’t exercise his fifth-year option, McGary responded by posting a career year that saw him ranked as PFF’s fourth-best offensive tackle with a run blocking mark second only to our own Trent Williams. He’s a mauler in the run game with more power than lateral quickness, and that shows in his pass pro scores. While he vastly improved in that regard last year, his career-high 2022 marks in the passing game check in as a tick below McGlinchey’s career averages, and there’s always some worry that his play fit so well in Atlanta’s run-heavy scheme that he may be even more susceptible to pass rushers outside of it. We’d basically be swinging on a McGlinchey type with greater variance, and while McGary will likely command a lesser contract than our right tackle incumbent, given the market, I’m not sure the price difference between the two will be enough for us to warrant the move.
Jermaine Eluemunor, Las Vegas: A London transplant who was late to football, Eluemunor entered the league as a raw prospect in 2017 (only 12 starts in college). After being a swing tackle across three different teams in his first five years in the league, he was finally given the reins at right tackle and posted a career year in 2022. He’s a big boy, but he moves well and has posted four straight years with pass pro scores above 70.0 (for reference, McGlinchey has eclipsed that mark only twice in his career). Like McGary above, it’s always worth taking a closer look when someone has a contract year bump. When that player has been in the league for a while, it’s another red flag that could point to timely variance rather than projected improvement. That said, Eluemunor’s raw status when he entered the league and his lack of starting opportunities until last season may actually help the likelihood that he’s on the upswing rather than peaking before a big contract. Perhaps it just took him a while to put it all together, and there’s a world where his price tag may be closer to that of a backup but with starter-level production.
Cameron Fleming, Denver: Another long-time journeyman swing tackle who played well when finally given a starting opportunity, Fleming has quietly put together two solid seasons in Denver. He doesn’t exactly excel at any one thing, and he’ll turn 31 just before next season starts, but he may be able to be had at a price tag more comparable to a swing tackle competing for a starting job than a full-on starter. And at worst, he’d be a solid backup if he gets beat out.
Andre Dillard, Philadelphia: Another former first-round pick, Dillard—due to opting out the COVID year—has only played three seasons in the NFL, and—due to the emergence of Jordan Mailata at left tackle—he’s never gotten the chance to really assert his ability (starting only 9 games over those three years). Coming out of Wazzu, the knock on him was his power in the run game, and that’s shown true in his grades. So it’s not hard to understand how he may have struggled to crack the rotation of one of the run-heaviest teams in the country. But Dillard’s primary weakness seems to be opportunity. He’s played well when he’s seen the field the past two seasons and is a plus plus athlete with an ideal tackle frame and feet. While he missed a big chunk of this year with a forearm injury and only played 37 snaps in 2022 (all of them at guard), there’s still a lot of potential in his game at (potentially) a very friendly price tag.
While the Niners are still benefitting from rookie QB contracts, the big deals they dole out this off-season must take into account what our cap will look like two and three years for now. So it begs the question: how much are we willing to pay for good-but-not-great right tackle play?
It’s tough to say “let’s take a step back” at the position given our struggles in pass pro against the Cowboys and the Eagles in the playoffs, this could be a situation where a spiking salary cap and a weak tackle market puts McGlinchey out of our range.
Offensive Guard
UFA: none
RFA/ERFA: none
Aaron Banks (of “five offensive snaps played as a rookie” fame) stepped into the starting lineup and basically held it down at left guard. Considering the player he replaced, that’s pretty impressive. Now, I wouldn’t say Banks blew me away in any facet of play, but given the consternation Niners fans had in his ability after such a quiet rookie season, boring is nothing to scoff at.
On the right side, fourth-round rookie Spencer Burford rotated series with all-purpose swing man Daniel Brunskill. As a guy who played a lot of tackle in college and was considered somewhere between the two positions, Burford’s movement skills made him playable immediately, but his lack of experience, power, and polish led the coaching staff to rotating him with Brunskill so that the rookie could see how a seasoned vet approached things while simultaneously getting reps. It worked as well as anyone could have expected and hopefully sets up Burford for an impressive second-year leap.
Realistically, it’s the second-year development (or in Banks’ case “second-year” development) that gives us the most hope for improvement along the offensive line. While Banks and Burford combined to allow only six sacks on the season, they were far from anchors in pass pro, and if boring is fine for year one as a starter, year two is when you want to see stronger play and specific traits that each player excels at. Due to both players’ age, their physical skill set, and the way the line got increasingly better and more cohesive as the year went on, there’s every reason to believe there’s a next step (or two) for each of our young starting guards. The big question is how big a step that will be and if both will be able to take it this off-season.
I’d be remiss not to give a shout-out to Daniel Brunskill once again, who—no matter what we ask of him—always seems to be prepared for it. While Burford is expected to become the full-time starter at right guard next year, I’d assume the Niners bring back Brunskill. Both because I don’t think he’ll be particularly expensive and because he provides insurance at all five positions along the offensive line.
Elsewhere on the roster, rookie Nick Zakelj played mostly tackle last year but could kick inside to guard if needed. Although if we’re needing that next year, we’re probably in trouble. Also, blog favorite Jason Poe—last season’s scout team OL of the year—waits in the wings. While his height is lacking, his burst and overall ability is hugely intriguing. He could be a guard or a center, but if he can fight his way into a second-team position at either spot next year, that bodes very well for his future prospects.
Center
UFA: Jake Brendel
RFA/ERFA: none
Despite being thirty years old and on the roster for the past three seasons, Brendel had only played six snaps since he arrived in Santa Clara and was as much of a question mark as our two guards entering 2022. But Brendel acquitted himself nicely, holding the unit together, communicating effectively, and putting up the 7th-highest pass blocking rate of any center this past season. Like the guards, there was nothing in particular that he really excelled at, but he was solid and consistent throughout the year. The major difference between Brendel and the guards? Brendel is thirty years old and currently an unrestricted free agent.
Shanahan has always prioritized the importance of center play, and it’s tough to imagine him dumping a successful center after basically stashing him on the roster for three years without playing him. But the market complicates matters a little bit. Center is a position with few elite players and a fat middle class, meaning you could make the argument to go for a younger player with higher upside or you could say it’s not worth rocking the boat unless you’ve got a guy with top-5 ability in your sights.
If Brendel departs and we add someone in free agency, there are a few options:
Ethan Pocic, Cleveland: Pocic was mid-at-best for the first four years of his career, finally started putting things together in year five in Seattle, then signed a one-year deal with the Browns last off-season and put up his best season by far. According to PFF, he was the league’s third-best center and fifth-best run-blocker. It’s worth noting that Pocic played under the tutelage of Bill Callahan—one of the best OL coaches in the league—and between two of the highest-paid guards in the NFL in Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio, so there’s a world where he’s no longer a top five center in another environment, but—at 27 years old—he will almost certainly be the most sought after center this off-season.
Connor McGovern, NY Jets: McGovern has a strong track record over multiple years—putting up three top-10 positional rankings over the past four seasons—and the past two years have come running the same scheme that we do. McGovern turns 30 before next season, so we wouldn’t be getting more than a few months younger at the position, but he’s an option nonetheless.
Garrett Bradbury, Minnesota: A former first-rounder who also has familiarity within the greater Shanahan system, Bradbury was mid-at-best through his rookie contract before seeing an uptick in play in his first season in Kevin O’Connell’s re-tooled offense. Bradbury was drafted so highly largely because he was a converted tight end, so his athleticism and movement skills are elite across the board, but—through his four years in the league—he’s lacked the size and strength to anchor in pass protection. Despite the tantalizing athletic upside, those pass pro issues may just be the case for the rest of his career.
My best guess is that the market for Brendel isn’t particularly ripe, the Niners prioritize continuity, and he gets re-signed. Something like a two- or three-year deal without a ton of guarantees that we can get out of after a year without punishment. But I do think the Niners try and figure out the development of his heir incumbent this year, whether that’s Poe or someone that they draft this spring.
If I were the betting type, I’d say the only big ticket contract we may hand out is a multi-year deal to Mike McGlinchey, or—potentially—his replacement. Regardless, I’d expect the Niners to use at least one of their mid-round picks on the offensive line, but that could mean anything from a contender at right tackle, an up-and-coming center, an all-purpose swing, or some combination of the above. While improvement along our offensive line is the priority, our best shot at that given our draft and cap situation is through the continued development of our interior players.
Go Niners 👍🏈