Farewell, Coach Ryans
It seemed written in stone as early as September, but there was always the selfish hope that few enough jobs would be available or enough out-of-touch owners would hire Jeff Saturday for us to get one more year of DeMeco Ryans as our defensive coordinator. Alas—the man who was labeled a “future head coach” before he was even our DC was never long for the Niners, and he just signed a six-year contract to become the next head coach of the Houston Texans.
Congratulations to Coach Ryans. The promotion was well deserved, and he will be sorely missed. Ryans took a defense that was a top ten unit in back-to-back seasons under Robert Saleh, successfully maneuvered it through the landmine that was our cornerback room in 2021, then rode late season momentum and an improved secondary to a #1 defensive rating in every metric imaginable this year. Universally lauded for his brilliant scheming, innate leadership qualities, and the ability for him to routinely get his guys playing like their hair was on fire, Ryans played a big role in the emergence of Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shair. After crossing paths with Coach Shanahan while in his playing days in Houston, Ryans was one of Shanahan’s first hires, quickly ascending from a defensive quality control coach to an inside linebackers coach, and—after five short years with the Niners—is now off to lead his own team. While Houston is kind of a shitshow and their owner is the unlikeable real-life version of Tommy Boy, the team is loaded with draft capital and cap space and—with a few smart moves—can contend more quickly than people think (it helps that they reside in the AFC South).
Lastly, since DeMeco Ryans is the second minority member of our staff to get poached this off-season (Ran Carthon was named GM of the Titans) we’ve got more third-round comp picks incoming. While there’s a weird, kind-of-bullshit loophole in the rule that says we get three picks over three years rather than four over two (the standard rate is two comp picks over two years per hire), it’s still a massive deal for a team that finds itself light on early round picks next year. I believe we’re the only team to be affected by this loophole (and this is the second time we’ve run into it in two years) because of course we are, but oh well. Score one for us. Score one for finding absolute beast coaches by not being racist. Hooray!
As for what happens next, that’s what the rest of this write-up is for. Unlike in 2020 when Robert Saleh left and we had Ryans ready to take the mantle, there isn’t an obvious candidate to replace our departed defensive coordinator this time around. But given we were just the #1 ranked defense in football, have All-Pros on all three levels, and have sent two DCs to head coaching jobs in the past three years, one would think we won’t be short on potential candidates.
What We’re Looking For
First and foremost we’re looking for an excellent coach. This isn’t the olden days of the NFL where a team could get by with an average play-caller on one side of the ball. If you don’t believe me, who’s the worst OC or DC from this year’s final four? How about last year? Or the year before that? When the names that come across your head are the Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan or three-time Super Bowl winner Steve Spagnuolo you know you can’t get by with a scrub on one side of the ball, and I doubt Shanahan—one of the game’s most analytical minds—has any interest in bringing in someone who isn’t buttoned up with their shit to the highest level.
Other important notes include:
They can work with the wide 9 and Kris Kocurek: Our DL could shuffle through a lot of bodies this off-season but Kris Kocurek’s ability to milk plus play out of older veterans or discarded guys on rookie deals is one of our greatest advantages as an organization. When you can manufacture depth at one of the league’s most expensive and important positions despite massive turnover in your two deep every season, you have an innate competitive advantage, and we have that with Kocurek. Thus, it’s important that any new DC’s scheme meshes with our aggressive one-gapping front-of-preference.
They run primarily zone: The greatest personnel advantage we have compared to anyone else in the league is the insane range of our linebackers. While Warner and Greenlaw can stick with guys in man coverage as well, we best utilize their talents allowing them to eliminate the middle of the field in a way that most teams—who minimize the importance and value of off-ball linebackers—cannot. Perhaps more importantly, our secondary—with the exception of Charvarius Ward—is much more suited for zone coverage. It would be a shame to waste a talent like Hufanga running down the field in man coverage on speedy slot receivers when he could be patrolling, reading patterns, and making plays on the ball.
Clear communicators. Strong motivators: By now I think a lot of the fire that comes from our defense is pretty inherent in leaders like Fred Warner, so I’m not super worried about that. But the ability for our defenders to play aggressive and physical is often tied to their preparation and confidence in their assignments. Saleh and Ryans were excellent communicators. The next DC must be the same.
Familiar Faces
If we’re looking in-house, secondary coach Cory Undlin is the most likely candidate. The 51-year-old has been a defensive coach in the NFL for nearly twenty years and—since he’s been our defensive pass game specialist for the past two years—is already closer to a coordinator than the other defensive assistants. Our secondary has two coaches—and safeties coach Daniel Bullocks has a strong reputation—so, as always, it’s hard to give anyone accurate credit for anything, but our DBs have vastly improved over the past two seasons. While the outside corner position was a nightmare for the majority of 2021, Ambry Thomas emerged from the rubble as a solid option down the stretch and second-year players Deommodore Lenoir and Talanoa Hufanga showed explosive growth in 2022.
Undlin actually was a defensive coordinator as recently as 2020, so he has experience in the role, but that was with a 5-11 Lions team that fired its head coach midway through the season. Unsurprisingly, the results were ugly:
2022 - DVOA - 32nd // Pass - 32nd // Rush - 27th // Pressure Rate: 32nd
As for any of these ratings, it’s best not to put all the blame or all of the credit on the defensive coordinator—especially when the head man gets fired mid-season—but that’s a tough resume when stacked up against the big names that we’re bringing in for interviews.
If there’s another in-house candidate it’s probably Johnny Holland, as he was the run game specialist under Saleh and has been with the team as a linebackers coach since Shanahan’s arrival. However, Holland had to step away from the team for parts of last year for multiple myeloma treatments. While the players love him and the linebackers in particular consider him family, who knows how interested Holland would even be in taking on greater stresses and responsibilities as a defensive coordinator? My guess would be he sticks around as our linebackers coach, which will be as important as ever with Ryans moving on.
While not an internal candidate, another guy we’d be familiar with is Joe Woods. He was the DB coach and passing game coordinator during our Super Bowl run, but he departed shortly thereafter for the defensive coordinator position under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. Largely credited for updating our coverage schemes on the back end, there was talk that the Niners tried to keep Woods by telling him he would have been the next man up when Saleh got a head gig. However, that’s only speculation—especially given there was already talk back then that Ryans was the likely heir apparent—and it’s TBD how interested the Niners would be in a reunion after three lackluster years as a DC in Cleveland.
2020 - DVOA - 23rd // Pass - 25th // Rush - 23rd // Pressure Rate - 24th
2021 - DVOA - 11th // Pass — 7th // Rush - 23rd // Pressure Rate - 17th
2022 - DVOA - 23rd // Pass - 16th // Rush - 28th // Pressure Rate - 27th
While the Cleveland Browns are still the Cleveland Browns, that’s still a defense with one of the top edge rushers in the game and decent talent along the defensive line and in the secondary. A reunion where Woods took over a spot in the secondary from a departed assistant may make some sense, but we wouldn’t exactly be buying high on him if we were to make him a DC.
cooking up ways to murder slant routes
The OGs
The most popular name that’s been getting circulated basically since DeMeco Ryans turned down a second head coach interview with the Vikings a year ago is our guy Vic Fangio, who is slated to meet with the Niners later this week. Niners fans know Fangio well, as he was the architect behind our nasty Harbaugh defenses, and—when he didn’t take a DC position last year—many stamped him as our DC-in-waiting. Currently serving as a defensive consultant for one of his many proteges in Philadelphia, Fangio’s defense is as sought after as Shanahan’s offense. His footprints are all across the league, and it’s not surprising why.
Here are the splits from Fangio’s last stint as a DC in Chicago (pressure rate wasn’t recorded before 2018)…
2015 - DVOA - 31st // Pass - 25th // Rush - 31st // Pressure Rate - n/a
2016 - DVOA - 22nd // Pass - 18th // Rush - 28th // Pressure Rate - n/a
2017 - DVOA - 14th // Pass - 15th // Rush - 18th // Pressure Rate - n/a
2018 - DVOA - 1st // Pass - 1st // Rush - 2nd // Pressure Rate - 12th
…and, just for fun, here are his splits from his time in San Francisco before that.
2011 - DVOA - 3rd // Pass - 8th // Rush - 1st
2012 - DVOA - 4th // Pass - 7th // Rush - 1st
2013 - DVOA - 13th // Pass - 11th // Rush - 15th
2014 - DVOA - 5th // Pass - 6th // Rush - 10th
While there was a clear adjustment period in Chicago as he retooled their defensive personnel and shifted them from a 4-3 to a 3-4, the end results were classic Fangio. But that adjustment period is worth noting. Fangio loves the Niners. He’s visited team headquarters multiple times over the past year and—back in 2017—he wanted to leave Chicago to return to the bay under Shanahan, but the Bears blocked his request. Yes, “sources” claimed Fangio had committed to the Dolphins just days ago, but the idea of him flipping to the Niners is very much a possibility.
While Fangio’s interest in the position seems legitimate, the bigger question is how likely his scheme meshes with Nick Bosa and Kris Kocurek. Fangio’s defense has evolved in step with the passing attacks that now run rampant through the NFL, and it’s not impossible to pair his defense with more one-gap and wide nine principles (case in point: Eagles). Also, his defense—like all others—spends a large amount of time in nickel formations due to the decreasing size and increasing speed of offenses across the country, and nickel defenses typically differ less than base sets. But after our 2022 performance and the four-season run we’ve had on defense, we are definitely in “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” territory. I have to assume much of Shanahan’s conversation with Fangio will be as much about what Fangio would NOT change as what he would bring to the table.
But if that meeting goes well and there’s a healthy middle ground that Fangio and our current staff are excited about, this would be a home run hire. Fangio may not be an up-and-coming head coaching candidate or a minority candidate who—if he left for a head coaching job—would net us more of those sweet sweet third-round comp picks that we love so dearly, but there’s a very real world where Fangio just wants to settle in and coach bomb ass defenses until the end of time. And if that’s the case then, yeah, it would be pretty sick if he was on our team.
Another guy who we’re bringing in for an interview this week is Steve Wilks, long-time Ron Rivera protege, and—most recently—the Carolina Panthers’ interim head coach. Wilks was a finalist for the head coaching gig in Carolina, had near unanimous support for the gig from his locker room, and did an admirable job finishing 6-6 while piloting a team that started 1-5 and played sad quarterback roulette with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker this season. This is a team that was a DJ Moore helmet penalty away from a playoff berth this season, and while they—like everyone else in the NFC South—weren’t actually “good,” the job Wilks performed was far better than anything the Panthers ever could have imagined.
Wilks has bounced around for a while after his last shot as a head man saw him getting saddled with the worst OL in NFL history, a rookie Josh Rosen, and an impatient owner with an affinity for Big 12 coaches with losing records. Before that, he was a part of Ron Rivera’s golden era of Carolina Panthers football, coaching DBs for 5 years and being an assistant head coach for 2 before adding defensive coordinator to his resume in 2017. That season the Panthers had the following splits:
2017 - DVOA - 8th // Pass - 11th // Rush - 6th
Wilks had one more stop as an NFL DC in 2019, when he was with the Browns for one year…
2019 - DVOA - 24th // Pass - 18th // Rush - 30th // Pressure Rate - 12th
…before they cleaned house and brought in Stefanski. Not the most impressive numbers in Cleveland but—like with the Panthers this past season—it’s hard to blame the coordinators when the ship is sinking right before their eyes. This was, after all, the Freddie Kitchens year.
Speaking of former head coaches being put in tough spots due to no fault of their own, Gus Bradley is a name that may get connected to us if we don’t hire someone from the three outsiders that we’re known to be interviewing this week. Although our defense has greatly diverged from the Seattle 3 scheme that Bradley took over after Dan Quinn departed the Pacific Northwest, the former Jaguars head man did pilot a top ten defense as recently as 2018, and that was while working under then-Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn.
I’m not going to list the stats of all three of his years as DC with the Chargers (let’s just say, 2018 was the peak) because I think we secure one of the three dudes interviewing in the next few days. But when Lynn’s staff was cleaned out, Bradley hopped between the Raiders and—last year—the Colts, putting up very respectable numbers as DC considering they fired their coach mid-season and hired a dude with zero experience to take over.
2022 - DVOA - 14th // Pass - 18th // Rush - 16th // Pressure Rate - 15th
Again, I don’t expect Bradley to be the guy.
The Young Bloods
Consider this the “likely future head coach” section. These dudes are younger, less proven, and lack head coach experience, but they have been getting the kind of talk that DeMeco Ryans was getting just a year or so ago.
First up is the last of the three names who have been confirmed to be getting interviews this week and that’s Washington’s defensive backs coach Chris Harris. The seven-year NFL vet just wrapped up his third season as the Commanders’ DB coach after spending another four as the assistant DBs coach with the Chargers under Anthony Lynn. This is where my knowledge taps out as it’s basically impossible to evaluate a relatively new position coach working for teams that I couldn’t care less about, but—with requests to be interviewed by both the Titans and the Bears—he’s clearly a rising star in the coaching circuit who Lynn certainly vouched for.
That said, this would be a massive promotion for Harris, as the rumors connecting him to the Titans and Bears are for pass game coordinator/secondary coach roles, NOT a defensive coordinator position. That’s not to say this couldn’t be the right hire (after all, we are the team that promoted DeMeco Ryans to defensive coordinator within three years of his first coaching gig), but it would be a huge career jump with lots of question marks.
The final candidate that I’m cramming in here is a bit of a homer pick, but I also think he’d be a slam dunk hire. Ejiro Evero, who just wrapped up his first season as the Broncos’ DC and who took head coaching interviews with four of the five head coaching openings this off-season, was the DBs coach when I briefly played at UC Davis, and his work on the defensive side of the ball was the only bright spot in the horrid dumpster fire that was the Broncos’ 2022 season.
2022 - DVOA - 10th // Pass - 7th // Rush - 20th // Pressure Rate - 26th
For a big chunk of the season the Broncos were ranked in the top three of a lot of these categories, but eventually—as defenses with no support and fired coaches tend to do—the unit started to crack down the stretch. Even still, a top-10 mark in one of the better offensive divisions in football is nothing to take lightly and Evero has been getting rave reviews all season while helping Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain to All-Pro honors despite his top two edge rushers going down early to injury or getting traded for picks. Evero came up through the coaching ranks under Monte Kiffin, Dom Capers, Wade Phillips, Raheem Morris, and—over five seasons as an assistant with the Niners—Vic Fangio, and he’s been lauded for his flexibility to fit his scheme to his personnel, his strong communication skills, and his ability to keep the defense focused in a season when the offense regularly turned the ball over and put up the fewest points in franchise history.
I have no idea if Sean Payton will attempt to retain Evero, if Evero will want to stick around after being passed up for the Denver head coach job, if the Broncos will even let him interview with other teams (they blocked the Falcons but that was before they hired Payton), or if the Niners have any interest, but I think he would be a great fit. And, FWIW, while Coach Evero wasn’t my position coach in school, I can vouch that he is incredibly smart and a super nice guy.
Time will tell what direction the Niners go with their next defensive coordinator, but given how much talent the incoming coach will have to work with, I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a hire within the next few days.
Go Niners 👍🏈