Off-Season Preview: Backfield

I was waiting to write-up something on our new-look coaching staff, but since the dust has yet to settle and multiple decisions (and promotions?) have yet to be made, we’ll jump ahead to the positional previews. With these previews, we’re looking for potential needs and turnover by position group before throwing in some educated guesses as to how those changes may shake out.

Up first is the offensive backfield, which has—for better or worse—never been boring during Shanahan’s five years leading the Niners. Much of that has been due to injuries and the long-term question marks that have stemmed from said injuries. And this year, it’s… same same but different. 

RUNNING BACK

UFAs: None
RFAs/ERFAs: None

A quick refresher on the types of free agents that exist in the NFL. The Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) are the guys who you typically think of when you think of free agents. Their contracts are up and they’re fully on the open market. Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) are players with three accrued seasons in the NFL. We basically have the right of first refusal with any of these players as we can tender them at one of a variety of compensation levels and—depending on what tender level we choose—we get to match any outside offer and (in most cases) get a set amount of draft compensation in return if we fail to do so. Finally, there are Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs), also known as “definitely not free agents but we call them that.” These players have less than three accrued seasons in the NFL, their tender is for the CBA minimum, and once they’re offered a tender they can’t negotiate with any other teams.

Let’s start with the easiest position group first. All four of our top running backs (and Juice) are under contract for 2023. All four (and Juice) will return. 

Despite losing his starting job to Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell is a vital part of our offense and (hopefully) one we can keep healthy next year. He’s arguably a better pure runner, seemingly always explodes through the right hole, and has the most burst of anyone in our backfield. Behind him, the rookies Jordan Mason and Ty Davis-Price will vie for touches, and—since this is a Shanahan offense—it wouldn’t be surprising to see either perform well if given the chance. Mitchell, Ty Davis-Price, and Mason will combine for just over a $3M cap hit.

The only real question with this group is when the Niners restructure CMC’s contract and what that will look like. While McCaffrey isn’t a free agent until 2026 he has ZERO guaranteed money left on his deal and will almost certainly want to restructure a new deal that locks in some cash on his side and opens up cap room on ours.

QUARTERBACK

UFAs: Jimmy Garoppolo
RFAs/ERFAs: None

The Niners enter the off-season with two quarterbacks on roster: Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. According to much of the national discourse, this is apparently a catastrophic situation for a team so talented and ready to contend. But it actually seems pretty simple to me.

Lance should be cleared to go within weeks while Purdy, who will undergo an internal brace surgery on his torn UCL, is expected to be out six months before he can return. That means Lance will run the offense through the off-season and—depending on the timing and progress of Purdy’s rehab—into training camp. The coaching staff won’t need to make any kind of decision on who the starter is until Purdy returns to full health, and—I can assure you—they won’t. Nor should they. 

While Purdy’s intelligence and gamesmanship were incredibly impressive as a rookie, he’s still an undersized player coming off a major throwing arm injury and teams will have a better plan to attack his tendencies in 2023. While I’m bullish on his ability to continue to get smarter and better, the hope was that he’d be able to spend the off-season doing just that and adding a few more MPHs on his fastball. Now, he loses an entire off-season of reps, and the idea of him improving physically in year two—either in arm strength or overall bulk—is likely out the window. Granted, Purdy was a perfect 8-0 in games that he finished, so he can clearly play at this level (physical limitations and all), but this was far from the off-season we’d hoped for as we prepared for Purdy’s sophomore encore.

At the same time, Trey Lance needs as many reps as physically possible, and—while practice reps are nothing like regular season ones—having another off-season as the man leading our offense should only improve his consistency and understanding of the game. I don’t really understand the push to “move on from Lance.” Even though he’s now one year older, he’s still younger than Purdy, would be the youngest starting QB in the league—save for a few potential rookie starters—and is still one of the greatest balls of physical potential in the game. There’s quite simply not enough info for us to know what we have in Lance, and—while the ticking clock of the rookie contract is ever-present—moving on from him without the knowledge of what he can become in this system and at the nadir of his market value makes little sense on every level. It’s not all that hard to imagine Lance—with a few more reps—having a Jalen Hurts-esque emergence with more time as a starter, and I’m sure that before this season the Niners were hoping he’d be well on that track by now.

While I think Purdy’s undefeated string to end the season means it’s his job to lose, it is impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster. And it is absolutely impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster who are on rookie contracts. As stated before, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy will combine to make just over $10M against the cap next year, a figure which is less than Mitch Trubisky’s 2023 cap hit and four to five times less than the hits of the top ten highest paid quarterbacks in the league. That’s also a number that’s sure to increase given the new deals likely coming for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa(?), etc. in the coming months. The single greatest advantage you can have from a roster-building perspective is a truly elite quarterback. The second-greatest advantage is having a starter on a rookie contract. We have two. And while that advantage doesn’t exactly stack, there’s no one who appreciates the value of a backup quarterback better than us. After all, we’ve had to start a backup in five of six seasons under Shanahan. 

That said, we will need a third quarterback and—given our injury history at the position and the fact that Purdy is out for so long—that guy should be a low-cost veteran who can play in a pinch. So what are our options?

For the purposes of this list, I’m scratching off anyone guaranteed to get starter money on the free market. So no Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, etc.

The definition of insanity…

Jimmy Garoppolo: No. While we should all appreciate him for what he’s done for the squad over the years and how he handled the Trey Lance situation, the worst way to secure a position group from injury is to rely on the health of the guy who gets injured more so than anyone else. 

Shanahan has already vetoed any idea of Jimmy coming back, and—while the remark seemed blunt in the end-of-season press conference Shanahan definitely didn’t want to attend—I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s because Jimmy’s injury woes did us dirty one last time this post-season. Remember, when Jimmy went down we picked up Josh Johnson off the street as a backup, but we also added Jacob Eason to our practice squad. So why wasn’t Eason on the active roster for the NFC Championship game? My guess is because that would have meant we’d had to reserve four spots for the position. 

Since there was hope Jimmy G would be back in case of a deep playoff run, the Niners couldn’t keep him on IR, and IR decisions have to be finalized before the playoffs start. The Niners clearly thought that having Jimmy G as their third QB in the playoffs (or second, depending on how he rehabbed) was a better bet than bringing up Jacob Eason, a physically talented player but one who has only ten career pass attempts for a reason. This seemed reasonable at the time, especially since the large majority of teams only keep two quarterbacks on the active roster for any given game. Unfortunately for us, our quarterback injuries just hit different. 

Teddy Bridgewater: see: not signing someone who is outrageously injury prone.

Young Cast-Offs

Baker Mayfield: Laugh all you want, but I was super pro-Baker when he was free on waivers and we needed a backup for Purdy. However, the Rams swooped in first, and Baker played… fine. I would be absolutely shocked if he were to get a starting role or even a chance at competing for one unless a team brings in a raw rookie for him to battle with, but I’d assume he’s looking for something more than a third quarterback spot. And while it’s hard to evaluate what Baker is really like in a locker room, it’s hard to claim he’s a better film guy than the names on this list who have closer to ten years of experience in the league.

Sam D’Arnold: see: Baker Mayfield but with higher variance.

Drew Lock: I’ve honestly never hated the talent, and he’s still only 26, but—like the names above—he may be looking for a better path towards playing time than as our third-stringer, and he’s only been in the league a couple years.

Scrappy McScrappersons

Taylor Heinecke: He’s gritty, tough, and his teammates seem to love him, but he may not be the type of QB who would necessarily thrive in the Niners’ offense. His accuracy wavers. His turnovers come in waves. And while he wins, it’s rarely because he’s stringing together long drives via an efficient passing game. Pure on-field performance isn’t the only factor to consider in this acquisition, but there’s an argument he’s a better fit as a spot starter for a team than a clipboard guy leading film sessions. 

Jacoby Brissett: Like Heinecke, I think his career is still more in the “break glass in case of emergency” stage, and he may prefer another shot at a backup gig after starting 11 games last season. But I’ve always heard good things about his approach, and we could certainly do worse as a QB room tutor who we weren’t terrified of getting real snaps.

CJ Beathard/Nick Mullens/Nate Sudfeld: They’d know the playbook…

Cooper Rush: There was never a real QB controversy in Dallas (nor should there have been), but Rush did hold the team together and pilot them to a 4-1 record while Dak was out with injury last year. Now it is worth noting that he completed only 58% of his passes, never threw for over 235 yards, and fell to the Earth with a three-interception game in his final start against the Eagles, but, again, we’re looking for a third quarterback.

Old Heads

Tom Brady: He retired. Let’s not do this unless he starts waffling.

Andy Dalton: If we’re adding a veteran addition, we’re looking for a two-part role. First, the guy needs to be able to play in a pinch if (god fucking forbid) we need to play our third quarterback again. Second, they need to be good in the film room and with a clipboard because that’s the role we actually want them playing. Dalton makes sense on both levels, but more on the latter.

Matt Ryan: He’s a 37-year-old coming off the worst season of his career on a team in full rebuilding mode who isn’t even a free agent. And while that sentence may not get the people going, the likelihood of him getting a buyout from the Colts and saving Indy $17M seems highly likely. Ryan is remarkably durable, having started every game of the season in a dozen different years and—until he was benched last year—never fewer than 14 in a single season. More importantly, he’s won an MVP running Shanahan’s offense, and—while those days are long gone—he could be a great mentor for our two young signal callers. Finally—if he does get released—no part of his contract would count against our comp pick formula this off-season.

Case Keenum: A 34-year-old poor man’s Andy Dalton? Not the sexiest description but the price tag might be.

Whoever we add, I doubt we’ll be in a huge hurry to bring them in. This year’s quarterback market is flush with starter-ish types and there will likely be a bit of a wait-and-see approach from the second tier of QBs as they assess the market. Everyone’s going to want to take their shot at a No.1 or No.2 gig before resigning themselves to being a full-on clipboard quarterback—even on a team where those quarterbacks play more than anyone would like. But once the dust settles, I still think there will be plenty of viable options to help tutor Purdy and Lance.

Go Niners 👍🏈