2021 Team Preview: The Rookies

Trey 2 Trey, hot new 90’s RnB group or dynamic backfield? [USA Today]

Training camp is a few days in. Our first pre-season game is just over a week away. It’s about that time to dust off the old hype train and get back to it.

We’ll start with the rookies. But first, a few thoughts on the draft class as a whole.

DRAFT TRENDS

1. Fit over perceived value: Fit over perceived value: More than a few experts have said we reached on our second-day picks while getting great value on our third-round picks. Ultimately, everything after the first few tiers of players becomes very much up for debate, but what’s clear is that the Niners really narrowed in on their dudes and got them—some higher than many would expect they’d go. We’ve talked before about the Niners potentially being too aggressive when it comes to moving up and “getting their dudes”—as opposed to accumulating more picks and thus more swings at the plate—but those moves have also led to guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Dre Greenlaw. Time will tell if we reached on some of these guys or not, but the Niners clearly prioritized fit in this class, both schematically and within the locker room.

2. Guys they could scout the most: While Lance’s lack of film is well-known, the Niners had weeks of in-depth scouting courtesy of their connection with John Beck and Lance’s second pro day. He was thoroughly scouted. And in a year when prospect interaction was down across the league due to COVID restrictions, the Niners really leaned into picking guys who they could scout the most. Out of the eight draftees, five played in the Senior Bowl. One who didn’t—Deommodore Lenoir—has a mentor and former high school coach who is close with Richard Sherman. Aaron Banks was vouched for by Mike McGlinchey and Notre Dame’s OL coach—who Chris Foerster has a good relationship with. In a year when they couldn’t meet most prospects in person, the Niners relied heavily on trusted confidants within coaching and scouting circles to ensure that the guys they were looking at were culture fits.

3. A weird year for roster building: While the bevy of picks that we sent away to draft Lance would make one assume that our goal was to trade back and accumulate as many picks as possible, that would have been hard to do given our roster make-up. With so many returning veterans on one-year contracts, we don’t actually have many viable roster openings for the 2021 season. So while accumulating picks for the 2022 draft and beyond makes total sense (when we’ll have plenty of openings), simply adding more guys who would then get cut after training camp would have been a waste of capital. It’s an odd position to be in and likely not one that we’ll see again next off-season.

Round 1, Pick 3: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

[Dai Sugano / Bay Area News Group]

Despite putting Fields ahead of Lance in my final QB rankings, this was a case where my head said Fields while my heart said Lance. So, as a fan, I am absolutely thrilled with this pick. While that may sound like I’m changing my mind after the fact, Fields’ ranking was always based on the idea that his larger sample size and superior accuracy made me—as someone who had never sat down with either player and who did not have access to All-22 film of Trey Lance—want to hedge risk. It was a final ranking made knowing that I had considerably less information on one of the prospects than the other, and it always came with the stated caveat that if the Niners were blown away by Lance in the interview process and if they thought he had already taken big steps towards improving his accuracy, that they ought to take the swing and lean towards the superior upside. Clearly, that wound up being the case.

Remember, the team’s goal is to draft players not for what they are or what they can be, but what they are most likely to become. In that regard, Lance’s intangibles, intelligence, processing speed, and physical traits were always going to help his cause, but—if early training camp reports have any merit (and training camp reports must always be taken with a giant grain of salt)—we may have struck gold on the trait that is so often hard to predict and regularly undervalued: growth trajectory. When we talk ad nauseam about how Lance accomplished this and that at only 19 or 20 years-old, it’s not simply to commend a prodigious talent but to use his past accomplishments as a means for gauging how high and how fast he may grow to hit future ones. And from beat reporters to players to the head man himself, everyone agrees that Lance has improved dramatically from the beginning of OTAs to now—just a few days into training camp. Which could mean we’ll be seeing him sooner than anticipated. 

That said, I am perfectly fine with taking our time and letting Lance really grow into the starting quarterback role before handing him the keys. The benefits he’d get from a few extra games of starting experience are dwarfed by the potential drawbacks of throwing him into the fire a few games too early. And while we’re far too talented and well-run of a team to see a repeat of an Alex Smith/Josh Rosen scenario (knock on wood), tossing Lance into the deep-end right away could still hinder his growth, and—unlike Smith or Rosen or countless of other highly drafted quarterbacks heading to bad teams—Lance would be facing the expectations and pressures of being a point-man for a team with championship aspirations. Whereas someone like Burrow or Herbert can toss the ball around and learn through costly mistakes as a rookie because their teams are a ways away from contention, those same mistakes will be more disheartening and impactful for a team two years removed from a Super Bowl and in the toughest division in the NFL. Per usual, any argument that “the Niners didn’t trade away x number of picks to sit Lance” is the equivalent of saying “you didn’t buy those green bananas to not eat them all before they ripen” or “you didn’t open that retirement account to not withdraw half of it to purchase a PS5.” There are reasons to play Lance early, but the people giving that particular reason are likely the same ones who KNEW that Mac Jones was the pick at No. 3. Believe me, I am as excited to see Trey Lance as you are, but we need to be patient.

But regardless of when Lance gets his first NFL start, expect to see him in sub-packages right away. For a team that has struggled in the red zone during Shanahan’s tenure, adding a 6-4 225-pound battering ram at the quarterback position will certainly make for some interesting option and run-pass looks when the field gets tight. And those same looks could be shown between the 20’s as well. While a tightened field means that a running quarterback can even the blocking up front, a 3rd-and-inches from midfield puts defenses in an entirely different predicament. Do you shift down and commit to the run—which we’ll likely be showing both in personnel and formation—or do you play it safe to not get burned over the top, which in turn makes the short-yardage conversion easier? 

We’ll get more into the specifics of what the Niners could do with Lance when he actually starts getting in-game snaps. But know this. The first time he lines up in the gun with Deebo and Kittle in the backfield, it’s gonna be six-to-midnight in a hurry.

Round 2, Pick 48: OG, Aaron Banks, Notre Dame

[Ninerswire]

First with the addition of Alex Mack, then the drafting of Aaron Banks, the Niners have spent a lot of resources cleaning up the interior line issues that have plagued us for the greater part of a year and change. In Banks, the Niners have a massive (6-5 338-pound) mauling-type guard with great strength, a bay area kid coming home (El Cerrito), and a dude who—as mentioned above—McGlinchey and ND’s former OL coach vouched highly for. But many have questioned both the value of the pick—he was largely considered a third-rounder—and his fit within the Niners’ stretch-heavy scheme. Here’s what I’d say about that. 

The Niners traded down five spots before taking Banks. I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that they—knowing Banks’ perceived value—were trying to move down again before taking him and—unable to find any suitors—pulled the trigger on the guy they had highest on their board. Much of the criticism about Banks is that he doesn’t move that well in space and lunges a bit in his blocking, leading to questions of whether or not he’s an immediate starter on the interior. Adam Peters has gone on record vouching for Banks’ quickness, saying that Banks—at a svelte 325 pounds—moved incredibly well for his size at his Pro Day. That weight loss and athletic potential, combined with the fact that the All-American guard allowed just two sacks and nineteen career pressures despite starting two-and-a-half years straight, made the Niners confident in picking Banks both for his polish—even if he does need hand work—and his upside.

As for fit, if his greater quickness at a still-humongous 325 pounds is any indicator, the transition to the Niners’ scheme won’t be as dramatic as some would believe. It’s also worth noting that it’s our tackles—who are regularly out of the box making difficult reach blocks—that truly NEED to be plus athletes in order to succeed in this scheme. While our guards have to be able to move and to get up to the second level, I think the Niners actually prefer a bit more heft on the interior. Teams have been overcommitting like crazy to stop our stretch running game, which opens the door for the gap runs that can punish them inside, and we—as stated above—are still looking for better short-yardage and red zone performance. Some extra pounds may help both those causes. Ultimately, Banks’ scouting report—a big, super strong dude with great durability and some questions about his ability in space—greatly mirrors that of Laken Tomlinson. And the Niners would be more than happy to shore up our interior with another Tomlinson-type.

I like Daniel Brunskill, but I feel like the Niners see him as either the all-important sixth man swing along the offensive line or a future center who can learn under Mack. Brunskill after all is a converted tight end, who—up until about a year ago—was listed as 252 pounds(!) on the NFL’s official site. While he’s played quality snaps at both center and guard, he may physically be better suited for the point position. If Banks wins the starting right guard position outright in training camp, that’s a good sign both for him and the overall composition of our offensive line.

Round 3, Pick 88: RB, Trey Sermon, Ohio State/Oklahoma

[NFL.com]

Consider me surprised that the Niners traded up into the third round to take a running back when we already have Mostert, Wilson, and Gallman under contract with JaMycal Hasty waiting in the wings. But that’s a testament to how highly the team thinks of Sermon. And since the selection comes with the blessing of Bobby Turner, that’s good enough for me.

Turner is probably the least appreciated contributor to the Niners staff. As the running backs coach under Kyle and Mike Shanahan since 1995(!), he’s unearthed gems like Breida, Mostert, Wilson, Alfred Morris (6th), Olandis Gary (4th round), Mike Anderson (6th round), and Hall-of-Famer Terrell Davis (6th round). He is the best running back coach on the planet. So we should probably trust his judgment.

Sermon also fits our scheme like a glove. While his deep speed isn’t incredible, he’s got great burst through the hole (with an impressive 10-yard split time on his 40), excellent cutback vision, and tremendous balance. He runs hard but has the ability to make guys miss in space, and catches the ball well out of the backfield.

Sermon DESTROYED this post-season, running for a Big Ten Championship Game-record 331 yards against Northwestern in a game where the Buckeyes passing attack needed much bailing out, then put up another 193 against Clemson. 

But a dislocation of his SC shoulder joint on the first play of the national champ game caused him to miss that contest, and unfortunately, injuries are a red flag. He had a cracked L5 vertebrae in high school—causing him to miss his junior year— and tore the LCL in his left knee—causing him to miss the end of his collegiate junior year. With only five games missed in college (plus the majority of the NC) and 45 games played in, perhaps he’s not actually that injury-prone. But given our luck in recent years… it’s always worth mentioning.

Shanahan wants AT LEAST three healthy running backs at all times so that he can rotate bodies and keep people fresh. Many people critiqued that strategy when Mostert exploded at the end of 2019, then immediately walked back said criticism when all of our running backs were continually injured a year later. With Jeff Wilson already down and likely to miss some time, stockpiling running backs looks smarter by the day. 

Mostert should continue to start, but Sermon will be among the three backs in that rotation, and—based on where he was selected—the Niners likely expect him to have a more featured role in years to follow. After all, he’ll be the only running back on roster locked up into 2022.

It’s also worth noting that Peters gushed about Sermon’s character, in particular his ability to deal with adversity while not letting it effect his outlook on life. This is likely due in large part to Sermon’s impressive mother, who lost two brothers—one shot to death—both her parents—within two weeks of each other—and her first two children—the youngest murdered by a former boyfriend who is now serving a life sentence in prison before Trey and his sister were born. Needless to say, no one expects Sermon to complain about sharing the load in the backfield.

Round 3, Pick 102: CB, Ambry Thomas, Michigan

No, that is not Emmanuel Moseley. E-Man switched to #4 with the new jersey rules… and then Jimmie Ward switched to #1… and then Thomas switched to #20 [NBC Sports]

I’ll admit I was worried when three straight cornerbacks—two of which I was highly interested in—went directly before the Niners picked at the bottom of the third, but I think they got a good one in Ambry Thomas. There are a number of draft experts who graded Thomas lower than a third rounder, but—as someone who (often sadly) watches every Michigan game—I can confidently say that I felt Thomas was undervalued on most draft boards.

He’s long, athletic, and tenacious with experience both in Don Brown’s man-press scheme and a handful of zones that the Wolverines had to throw into the mix to offset some personnel issues in 2019. But since Ambry was only a full-time starter for one year and sat out the 2020 season—for medical reasons that we’ll get to in a second—people kind of forgot about him. If anyone watched a Michigan game last year, rest assured that fans of Michigan missed him dearly. So did the coaches, as they gushed about Thomas’ competitive spirit and tenacity in their talks with the Niners leading up to the draft.

As a testament to his work ethic, Thomas—who was diagnosed with colitis in the summer before the 2019 season—lost 35 pounds while hospitalized for a month, missed all of fall camp, and was told he should medically redshirt… then wound up not missing a single start en route to a highly successful junior year.

It’s interesting because Syracuse’s Ifeatu Melifonwu—who went a single pick before Thomas and combines elite movement skills alongside a 6-2 205-pound frame—is basically the physical prototype of an NFL corner. Yet he dropped to the third round based on some questions about instincts, anticipation, and consistency. In many ways, he was a more polished Ahkello Witherspoon. While it’s impossible to know if the Niners had him higher on their board than Thomas, it’s easy to wonder if their focus on toughness and physicality over raw physical tools is in part because things never fully materialized with Spoon.

To be clear, Thomas is no slouch athletically. He returned kicks at Michigan and even played a little offense when he was further down the depth chart at cornerback. He’s got good top speed, quick feet, and very good hands, but tends to get a bit grabby at times. And while physical and willing, it’s unclear if he can really add any more mass onto his rather slender frame. He’s definitely a guy who needs more in-game experience, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get some snaps as a rookie. In terms of long-term projection, this is definitely a guy who can become a fixture outside. Perhaps as soon as 2022.

Round 5, Pick 155: OL, Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan

[49ers.com]

A three-year starter at left tackle, Moore’s lack of ideal length and power initially had him sliding inside to guard with the Niners. But after Justin Skule went down with a torn ACL in OTAs, Moore has been running with the second team at tackle. While it’s a bummer for Skule, I don’t mind Moore getting a shot outside first. A popular prospect in scouting circles, the experts are near-unanimous that the Niners got both a steal in the fifth round and a dude whose quickness, movement skills, and second-level climbing ability make for an outstanding schematic fit. To me, he seems like the perfect swing tackle and hopefully getting early snaps outside will help him transition to such a role.

However, considering Moore was drafted initially to play inside, his selection brings up a lot of questions about our two-deep on the offensive line. Was Skule, before his injury, on his way out anyway after taking a big step back from his mostly-solid substitute cameos in 2019? Is it getting late early for Colton McKivitz, who looked totally overwhelmed during his rookie year? Or will a more normal off-season help him in year two? Will Shon Coleman ever play a snap for us?  Still plenty of questions along our offensive line. Hopefully, they’ll be answered by the time the regular season rolls around.

Round 5, Pick 172: CB, Deommodore Lenoir, Oregon

[R. Ross Cameron / USA Today]

A scrappy corner out of Oregon who started three straight seasons in what was—before COVID opt-outs—perhaps the most talented secondary in the country, Lenoir is a tad undersized and lacks the twitch to really make up for it, but he’s a physical and intelligent DB who plays under control. As evidenced by a rookie camp clip that quickly made the rounds…

Somebody call the police because that was AGGRAVATED ASSAULT https://t.co/aFr1KSCP4o

— COACH PRIME (@DeionSanders) May 15, 2021

…and possibly got the Niners in trouble for their OTAs having “contact.”

Lenoir’s basically the Niners’ answer for the void in the slot vacated by DJ Reed—a player who he greatly resembles—but the Niners see Lenoir with a bit more inside/outside potential (although Reed currently starts outside for the Seahawks so…). Similar to Reed, expect him to get shots at subpackage work on the inside and for him to work his way up from there.

Round 5, Pick 180: S, Talanoa Hufanga, USC

[Sports Illustrated]

The reigning Pac-12 defensive player of the year and AP first-team All-American, Hufanga seems like an absolute steal where we got him. Super instinctual and physical with great intelligence (he was one of two Niners’ draftees—the other Trey Lance—who got the coveted Golden Helmet designation during the draft process), Hufanga slipped because he ran an atrocious forty time (4.63) and has serious medical questions about his shoulders. With TWO season-ending right collarbone surgeries—the second of which led to a metal plate—and a dislocated shoulder that wound up requiring surgery after his sophomore year, the medicals could have taken him off the boards of some teams.

That said, this is the fifth round. You take risks somewhere, and Hufanga could well exceed his draft slot if he can stay healthy. People question his coverage ability due to his lack of elite speed and ask if he can play deep middle or even deep half. Totally fair. But his tape is faster than his timed speed and he doesn’t HAVE to play deep coverage in order to see the field with the Niners. In fact, I’d guess Hufanga’s first snaps (other than special teams, where he should immediately be a difference-maker) will be in a similar role as what Marcell Harris was doing for us by the end of last year. A matchup-specific subpackage outside linebacker who can cover better than most while being physical enough not to get overwhelmed in the box. If Hufanga tops out as Marcell Harris, we’ll easily take that for the next four years on a fifth-rounder deal. But he at least has the potential to carve out a bigger role, and that’s great value in the fifth.

Round 6, Pick 194: Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana-Lafayette

[Stan Szeto / USA Today]

Despite eyeing linebackers in this round, the Niners ended up pulling the trigger on Mitchell for the same reason they did on Moore and Banks and Sermon—he just fit their value chart. Mitchell is a speedy guy (4.38 forty) with a one cut running style who ran plenty of outside zone in college. You don’t see a lot of dynamic moves or creativity in his running style, but he’s fast, usually hits the right hole, and runs harder than his size would indicate. That’s certainly enough to have some success in our scheme. 

While the injury to Wilson will likely push some difficult roster decisions to a later date, the battle for the fourth running back spot between Wayne Ellington, JaMychal Hasty, and Mitchell will be one to keep an eye on in training camp.

Next Up? Guys with pictures that were NOT taken from the rookie minicamp.

Go Niners 🏈👍

Shit’s About To Go Down

AAAAAAAAH [Getty Images]

By approximately 5:30 tonight, booze will be had. The only question is what type, in what fashion, and in what state of mind. We’re just hours away from learning who will be the Niners’ quarterback for (hopefully) the next 10+ years. Here are some final thoughts and my final QB rankings.

Smoke Season in Full Swing

Once the dust settles, it’ll be interesting to see which reporters were “right” and what was simply conjecture and smokescreens. Every other day there have been new “reports” from “sources” about the direction the Niners are going. Personally, I think a lot of those reports are based on people guessing. But I’d also be willing to accept some level of gamesmanship.

The current Niners regime hasn’t had ANY leaks through their first four years. Not when they traded for Garoppolo, or when they traded away DeFo, or when they moved up to take Foster or Aiyuk in the draft, or even when they made this massive blockbuster trade that seemingly came out of nowhere. It would be foolish to think that after all that, they are now the most loose-lipped team in the country. 

While it’s easy to ask “what do we have to gain?” from all this drama when the top two picks in the draft seem set in stone, it’s even easier to ask “what do we have to lose?” People do crazy, stupid shit on draft day, Trent Baalke and Joe Douglas are still picking 1 and 2, and—in the incredibly unlikely scenario that the Niners feel confident enough in the picks below them and the talent at quarterback that we try to trade down and still get their guy—the cloud of smoke at least gives us the competitive advantage of knowing who we want when no one else does. At the very least it means that the teams after us will be scrambling once our pick comes in. Even that is a minor win.

That said, it’s not hard to envision this being a YOLO. The Niners know that the first two picks have been solidified for a month now so perhaps they’re allowing information to seep out about their process and their preferences because they frankly don’t care what anyone knows at this point. No one is going to move ahead of them. No one is going to prevent them from getting their guy at No.3. And the entire point in moving all the way up to three was to assure themselves that kind of freedom in their scouting process. But while moving up to three allows us to do things like host second pro days for two quarterbacks—one of whom we convinced to work with a coach who we know very well—the endless contradictory sources assures that at least some of what’s been reported is totally made up.

Either way, we’ll find out tonight.

Don’t Make a One-Year Decision on a Ten-Year Investment

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “Mac Jones is the most pro-ready of the prospects and the Niners don’t want to keep Jimmy G around, so naturally, the Niners should draft Mac Jones.” 

I don’t remember which fallacy of reasoning this falls under, but I’m sure it checks about half of them. And I’ll bring up later the question of Mac Jones’ pro-readiness. But the Niners are making this pick for one reason and one reason only: to get the best guy to lead them for the next 10+ years. NOT the guy who makes Jimmy G the most expendable in 2021. NOT the guy who is gonna look the best right out of the gate. We just traded three first-round picks to hand-select our franchise quarterback. There is quite literally no time like right this second when we should be making a long-term decision.

Yes, in an ideal world the rookie is so good and we’re so confident that giving him immediate snaps is the best path to helping him reach his potential that we can trade Jimmy before the season, save $25M in cap space, and start the [whoever we draft] era immediately. But the single most important part of that equation is—without question—getting the right guy and doing whatever we can to make sure he reaches his potential. 

Everything else is—at best—a distant second.

The Scheme is More Flexible Than You Think

We talked about what qualities Shanahan and Lynch were likely to prioritize when evaluating the quarterbacks in this draft, but while traits like accuracy and intelligence will always be important within our scheme, we need to stop acting like Shanahan’s current playbook is exactly what he wants to run.

Shanahan’s a smart dude. When he got a new starting quarterback midway through his first year in San Francisco, he adapted the offense to better fit what that quarterback could do. Quick hitters inside, more shotgun, less outside-the-hash and down-the-field work; these were not decisions made in a vacuum but ones made to best accent Garoppolo’s strengths and minimize his weaknesses. A year before that, Shanahan led Matt Ryan to an MVP season while leading the league in yards/attempt, adjusted yards/attempt, and touchdown percentage. Four years before that, Shanahan led RG3 to rookie of the year honors as he rushed for 800+ yards on a league-leading 6.8 yards/carry. There’s flexibility to what this offense can become.

Shanahan’s offense will always feature a handful of staples, but looking at the Niners’ scheme now and saying “this is exactly what Shanahan wants” is a bold claim. If anything, we should be expecting changes. Because this was a hell of an aggressive move up the draft to stand pat offensively.

The “Mahomes Plan” is Still Viable

There’s been a lot of talk about how no one gets drafted as high as No.3 to sit for a year behind another quarterback. While the idea of Jimmy being moved before or during the draft has certainly picked up some steam of late—and could ultimately be the right decision—the thought process that many are using to justify it is greatly flawed.

These are the most common arguments I’ve heard:

1 - Sitting your QB means you lose a year of savings off their rookie contract: In absolute terms, this is obviously false. The rookie’s salary number is going to be the same regardless of if they start in 2021 or not. But the argument that’s trying to be made—that you want to get as many starting years out of a rookie contract as possible—is also false, but for different reasons.

I sort of talked about this already, but the combination of savings you get from cutting a veteran starter and milking every year out of a depressed rookie contract is never more important than ACTUALLY WINNING GAMES. None of that other stuff matters if it hinders the selection and development of your future quarterback.

If you asked the Chiefs if they’d have rather played Mahomes as a rookie as opposed to letting him learn under Smith but with the caveat that it could hinder his development, the answer would be a resounding hell no. Penny pinching is great when you have your core players at important positions locked up and are trying to save money to build up the rest of the roster. But saving money just to save money in a hard salary cap league run by billionaires where approximately 90% of their salary caps are paid by revenue sharing should never be mistaken for doing the thing you set out to do as a franchise in the first place: win games. 

Once again, your decisions need to be made based on the best player and the best way to help him develop into the franchise quarterback that you just traded all those picks for.

2 - The best way to get better is to get meaningful snaps as quickly as possible: For some people, sure. In the right system, with the right coaches and supporting cast. But there are decades of evidence refuting this claim as an absolute. Just ask Josh Rosen.

3 - The Mahomes situation was “a different time”: No it wasn’t. When Mahomes was drafted in 2017, the NFL was still under the same collective bargaining agreement that we’re under now, the rookie pay scale was already in effect, and teams were already slinging the ball all over the place due to changes in rules and the growing popularity of RPOs. While rule changes are perpetual and the way the NFL has shifted things in the past calendar year has moved the goal posts a bit in terms of optimizing your offense, player acquisition and development has largely stayed unchanged.

It’s also worth noting, that—even for it’s time—Mahome’s patient developmental schedule was rare—just as Aaron Rodgers’ was before him. That’s probably because—for the most part—a team’s not drafting a quarterback in the first round when they’ve already got an above average-or-better performer at the position. Most teams taking first-round quarterbacks are subpar squads attempting to add a crucial piece who will help them ascend to relevancy, not perennial playoff contenders. But in the case of both Mahomes and Rodgers, they entered into teams with capable multi-year starters at quarterback and playoff-worthy supporting casts. They were not needed to save the franchise. Thus, they were given time to develop. As a team one year removed from a #1 seed and a Super Bowl appearance with the quarterback who got us there still on the roster, we’re in a similarly unique position as the Chiefs and the Packers once were. Where most teams picking this high would not have the luxury of sitting a rookie, we do. And because of that, it should at least be considered.

If we believe our rookie will develop best by sitting on the bench all year, then so be it. If we think getting thrown into the fire will be the best way for them to improve, then that’s the route we should take. But just because the situational dynamics of most teams picking a first round quarterback dictate that said quarterback should see meaningful snaps as a rookie, doesn’t mean that we need to/nor should follow in their footsteps.

Final QB Rankings

Not including Trevor Lawrence, for obvious reasons

1. Justin Fields: Despite Shanahan seemingly going out of his way at the post-trade presser to debunk this very claim, everyone still seems to think that his ideal quarterback is Kirk Cousins. This is a guy who grew up watching his dad win three chips with Steve Young and John Elway—mobile Hall of Fame quarterbacks with rocket arms. You can’t tell me that after all that, Cousins is his ideal quarterback.

Yes, Fields’ ugliest film can get pretty ugly, but his mobility, accuracy, and intelligence all fit our scheme like a glove—while his skill set would allow us to open up the offense beyond what we’ve seen thus far in the Shanahan era. His incredible ball placement raises his floor and makes him less risky than someone like Lance, he’s already shown the ability to improve considerably between seasons—which is great for his long-term trajectory—and he’s started two straight years at a high level against top tier competition, which again hedges some of the inherent risk in taking a quarterback this high.

To me, Fields has the best chance to be that guy who had the tape, had the tools, and had the production, but somehow managed to slip on draft day regardless. The dude who people spend the next decade saying “how did this happen?” That is, unless the Niners pick him at No.3

T-2. Trey Lance: Lance had more inaccuracy issues on tape than I’d originally thought, and those are genuine concerns, but that doesn’t mean I’ve soured on him. I just can’t get over what he accomplished at his age and how everyone else that we’ve been evaluating is not only multiple years older but is being scouted based on newer tape and a better supporting cast. There’s a real chance that Lance has already fixed some of the issues that he had in 2019 because he was a 19 year-old redshirt freshman at the time and he’s had plenty of time since then to work one-on-one with QB coaches to improve his mechanics. Projected growth is a major part of the scouting process that many tend to ignore—especially when it comes to this position, and to me, Lance’s trajectory is a rocket heading into space. Think back to how you were at 19 versus 22, audibly cringe, and then look at what Lance has already accomplished before he can legally drink.

Maybe he’s not a guy who starts in 2021, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he’s closer to pro-ready than many people are saying. Remember, this is a guy who was a much more efficient passer in his first year as a starter than Carson Wentz—a four-year player in the exact same system—was throughout his career. While Wentz has had his ups and downs in the league, he was still a rookie starter and nearly won the MVP in his second year en route to a Super Bowl. Everyone has said that Lance needs to sit a year enough that people seem to take it as fact. Maybe he does. But there’s at least a chance he doesn’t.

As far as the scouting process goes, I cannot stress enough how brilliant the move was by the Niners to reach out to Lance and get him hooked up with John Beck. Not only has that connection given Lance some high-level coaching—he’s already working on improving his lower body mechanics to help his accuracy issues—but it gives the Niners an in-depth look from a trusted eye on a player with a lot of question marks during a COVID-altered scouting process. For a player with so little on tape and so much projection, that extra look is a massive deal that makes me much more comfortable if Lance is the pick at No.3.

To be certain, Lance is still a MAJOR risk. I don’t want to minimize the question marks that come along with inconsistent accuracy and lack of tape. I get that, and that’s probably the main reason I have Fields ahead of him in these rankings. But I’d be more than happy to get either of those two at No.3.

T-2. Zach Wilson: As much as I love Wilson’s improvisational ability and off-platform arm, after watching more film, Fields and Lance certainly have more physical talent. Combine that with BYU’s soft schedule (although they did play two top 20 defenses in SDSU and Coastal Carolina) and the fact that their offensive line was absolutely amazing last year, and that’s led to a slight slip from Wilson in my rankings. Overall, some of his production may not have matched his process last year and that will be harder to get over in the NFL.

To be clear, I’m still really high on Wilson, and he and Lance are kneck-and-kneck for me at two. There’s also certainly some inherent Niners optimism bias in this ranking—as Wilson is nearly a lock to be off the board by the time that we’re picking. But I’m hoping that counteracts the inherent bias the other way that came from Wilson being someone who I diagnosed as both a first-round talent and a nice schematic fit before most experts did. With this ranking, I’m basically trying to balance out my two favorite things: the Niners winning games and me being right. Ultimately, it’s unlikely to matter, as the Jets are picking Wilson at two. But if he does somehow fall to us, I would have zero qualms swooping him up.

4. Mac Jones: Distant fourth. The other guys are quite simply in another tier, and while I think Jones—and any of the above quarterbacks—would succeed in Shanahan’s system, the more I’ve watched of other players in the running the more I realize how big the gap is between them and Jones. I just don’t see the ceiling to warrant the pick. Not this high. Not with what we gave up. And after watching film of everyone else, I think some of the strengths of Jones’ game are overrated as well.

As an example, with all the (inaccurate) talk of Fields or Lance being “one read and run” quarterbacks, I was curious to see if anyone actually charted out data to back up those claims. It turns out, someone has. And while I can’t speak to the methods nor the accuracy of this data, The Draft Network’s findings on rate of success for throws thrown beyond the quarterback’s first read were very interesting:

I have no idea how they measured “placement” or “accuracy” for this study so let’s just ignore those categories. It’s also worth noting that Mac Jones had DeVonta Smith—the best receiver in the country—as his No.1, so he definitely should have thrown to him more often than average, and—when you think about the other weapons that were at his disposal—it was likely harder for opposing defenses to double or commit extra help Smith’s way. So he definitely definitely should have thrown to his No.1 more often than average. Basically, there is a ton of noise in the stats above, and you don’t want to punish someone for having a good play caller and receivers who get open. But while I would NOT hold these figures as gospel, they do point to two things for me: (1) Alabama’s current offense (not their offense four years ago) is more RPO-heavy and less pro-style than most would have you believe, while Ohio State’s current offense (not their offense with Haskins or under Urban Meyer before that) runs more multi-progression passes than you’d think; and (2) neither Fields nor Lance are anything close to “one read and run” quarterbacks.

So how does this relate directly back to Jones? Much of his appeal is polish. It’s that he’s the “safest” of the high picks because the other guys are much less developed. But as we chip away at some of the myths about Fields’ and Lance’s ability to process the field and their pro-readiness, Jones’ supposed advantage begins to lessen. And ultimately, I don’t think Mac Jones is as “safe” a pick as we’ve been led to believe. A lack of physical tools means you have no margin for error, and it’s easier for me to bank on Fields improving his processing speed under Shanahan’s tutelage or Lance improving his accuracy with continued throwing mechanics work than Jones becoming one of the smartest quarterbacks in the entire NFL. Oftentimes when quarterbacks are deemed more “pro-ready” that’s really just subconscious code for “they’re closer to tapping out their ceiling.” And oftentimes when scouts gush endlessly about someone’s smarts it’s because there’s nothing else traits-wise to talk about in their game. While Jones may indeed wind up the most pro-ready, he’s clearly the closest to his ceiling, and I’m not comfortable with his projected growth. As stated above, this pick is about long-term return, not short-term return, and in the case of Jones vs. Fields/Lance, you could argue the latter two have Jones beat in both categories.

Given this particular situation, it would also be malpractice not to point out how the narrative is different for white and black quarterbacks, with Jones—due to no fault of his own—being the beneficiary in this three-man race. The whole “seems like a good kid from a good family” and “I could see myself cracking a beer and hitting the links with him” line of thought has basically been unavoidable this draft season and that could easily be inflating Jones’ perceived value. For example:

Lance led his team to an undefeated championship at nineteen, Fields was recruited by Harvard and Yale, and yet Jones is the one who is lauded for his prodigious smarts. Jones had the fewest starts of any of these top quarterback prospects—tied with Lance only because of COVID—and ran the same offense that was just criticized last year in Tua’s evaluation for being too-RPO-heavy, but is immediately the most “pro-ready?” Jones was arrested for a DUI at the same age Lance was winning a chip and the Walter Payton Player of the Year Award, but Fields is the one who is getting called out by “anonymous sources” over “character concerns?” Lance was a two-star recruit whose only quarterback offer was to North Dakota State, yet Jones is the “scrappy underdog?”

Seeing the comparisons between Jones and the other prospects reminds me of every time Michael Bluth met his son’s girlfriend in Arrested Development:

I just don’t see it.

This isn’t meant to rip Jones. He’s got talent. He’s accurate. He processes quickly. He’ll get the ball out of his hands in a hurry, which I know Shanahan would appreciate, and if he ends up being the pick I will be rooting as hard as possible for him to succeed. Which I think he would. Because Shanahan is our coach. But any time I think of picking Jones ahead of Fields and Lance, my mind immediately turns to opportunity cost. What draft capital did we give up to get him? If we’re getting just an average starting quarterback, where else could those picks have gone? What are we giving up schematically in terms of improving and evolving our offense by passing on the superior physical tools of Fields and Lance? And just as importantly, what does Mac Jones give us that Lance or Fields doesn’t? And for that last question, I don’t have an answer.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it (thankfully) for the last time here. Whether I’m right or wrong (and it’s happened before), please for the love of our collective sanities, make the right pick. Whoever that may be. Because the right pick could launch us into Super Bowl contention for the next decade. And I really don’t want to spend another April looking at quarterbacks in another three or four years.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Draftables: Justin Fields

Whereas a lack of All-22 footage made for a frustrating evaluation of Trey Lance, coaches film was massively beneficial in scouting Justin Fields—who certainly has his faults but looks much better when those faults are viewed in context.

In short, we’re looking at another dude with tremendous physical tools and college production who’ll need to iron out a few things that won’t fly on the NFL level, but if he can show those improvements, Fields has all the makings of an ideal triggerman for Shanahan’s offense.

(Some lazy pun) Fields Forever [G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins]

Ht: 6-2.5”
Wt: 227 lbs.
Age: 22
School: Ohio State

Stats

Build: Justin Fields measured in at 6-2.5” and 227 pounds at his pro day. Like Lance, he basically has the prototypical build for a modern NFL quarterback. 

Experience: A two-year starter at Ohio State who also played in all 12 games at Georgia in a sub-package role as a freshman, Fields has more starts (22) and legitimate game experience than either Jones—who didn’t see meaningful snaps until Tua went down late in the 2019 season—or Lance—who redshirted after a few games as a freshman then saw his sophomore year postponed due to COVID.

As Lance and Wilson get knocked for playing against subpar competition, it’s also worth noting that—while Ohio State only played in eight games this season due to COVID outbreaks in the midwest—three of them were against defenses ranked in Football Outsiders’ top five. He absolutely torched one of them (#3 Clemson) while showing warts against the other two (#1 Northwestern; #5 Indiana). If not for those latter two games, I think there’s little chance he’s slipping past the Jets at #2.

As for Fields’ schedule comparison versus Mac Jones? Despite Bama being the national champs and playing a full schedule in the SEC, the SEC had a very down year in terms of defensive performance in 2020. Of the 13 schools, only two made it into FO’s top 44 defenses (#12 Georgia and Bama themselves at #20). Combine that with their playoff opponents (#24 Notre Dame and #47 Ohio State), and Jones played against a considerably easier slate of defenses while being surrounded by better offensive talent.

Injuries: Despite—and in part, because of—his mobility, Fields has taken some big hits in college (too many, which we’ll touch on later), but he’s shown excellent toughness throughout. He had some kind of knee injury on the back end of his first year in Columbus, but he played through it into the playoffs, and he suffered a rib injury in the semifinals last year, which—after taking what I have to assume was the biggest cortisone shot in the history of mankind—he returned from and promptly had the best game of his career. Knock on wood, as long as he learns to protect his body in the NFL, he doesn’t seem like a major injury risk.

Scouting Breakdown

Like Bullseye-ing Womprats: When I first popped on Fields’ tape, my immediate reaction was “whoa, this guy is way more accurate than Mac Jones.” And then I got to the Northwestern game. Ultimately, I still think Fields is the most accurate quarterback in this draft, and here’s why.

Accuracy is really a two-pronged evaluation. It’s about throwing consistently catchable balls and high-end placement. If you are consistently throwing within the catch radius (or “good enough”) that’s one form of accuracy. If you are breadbasket or bust that’s another type of accuracy (although you can’t miss THAT much and ever truly be considered accurate). And if you’re regularly blowing up the Death Star with your eyes closed (peak Brady, Brees, Montana), that’s the ideal blend of both.

Jones, with his excellent and repeatable mechanics, had fewer misses than Fields, but his placement—due in part to his lack of arm strength leading to some issues on crossing routes across his body and deep balls—is closer to a B+ than an A. Jones’ record-setting completion percentages are due in part to an incredible cast of pass catchers around him and an offense that prioritizes quick releases and RPOs. While Fields has more misses— which are largely clustered around that two-game stretch—his placement is absolutely incredible on all three levels.

Fields excels at throwing over underneath defenders with both accuracy and anticipation when attacking the intermediate zones of a defense:

🎯 pic.twitter.com/qlA1gVEEdU

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

He shows great placement when flushed and throwing on the move:

🏃‍♂️🎯 pic.twitter.com/Udpf2fry0J

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

And he has impressive touch while dropping money balls down the field:

💣 pic.twitter.com/DDxCFKRyNq

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

Advanced stats seem to back this up as well. According to PFF, Justin Fields was tops in the nation in ball placement over the past two years, while—according to ESPN—Fields led this quarterback class in the lowest percentage of off-target throws between 11-20 yards (6.9% to Jones’ 7.7%) and was considerably better than anyone else hitting those depths on passes thrown outside the hashes (4.4% to Trevor Lawrence’s 11.9%). That second stat seems a testament to Fields’ arm strength as well.

💪🏽 pic.twitter.com/lmLNyrVOlR

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

Those are field-side deep outs on a college field, where the hashes are wider than in the NFL. While Fields doesn’t have the absolute howitzer that Lance possesses, his arm is very strong, even by NFL standards.

Granted, when Fields misses he typically misses worse than someone like Jones, and he’ll need to clean some things up mechanically to iron that out, but considering he still threw well enough to lead the nation in so many accuracy metrics, he’s not as hot-and-cold as some would have you believe.

Bigger, Faster, Stronger (than you probably think): Despite his size, Fields ran a 4.44 at his pro day. And he slipped in the middle of it.

Justin Fields. 4.43u SPEED. (via @movethesticks) @justnfields

📺: @OhioStateFB Pro Day on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/Wu1B2XACNg

— NFL (@NFL) March 30, 2021

Needless to say, the kid is athletic. Ohio State ran a lot of play action boot looks (although typically from the gun) to take advantage of the wider hashes and to allow Fields run-pass options if routes weren’t open. Fields has also shown the ability to use his athleticism to create dynamic plays on the ground when plays break down.

🏃‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/sht1v9FPSn

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

Not Dwayne Haskins: Just as it’s impossible not to mention the slew of Bama quarterbacks who have won championships and put up gaudy stats in college only to flame out in the NFL, there will always be some hesitation about drafting an Ohio State quarterback until a single one of them pans out. If that sounds like hyperbole, the Ohio State alum who’s had the most success as an NFL quarterback was Mike Tomczak, who went undrafted in 1985 (despite the draft being 12 rounds) and was mostly a backup. He was, however, the only former Buckeye I saw (in a five-minute search) who started more than 10 games in a single season. In the history of the NFL.

Some of that can be attributed to the Buckeyes’ formerly conservative nature and their time as an option team, but the fact that the last OSU quarterback to enter the league was cut less than two seasons after being a first-round pick means Fields is fighting history. Luckily for Fields, he seems like the exact opposite of Haskins.

Ohio State has been much better and more consistent with Fields under center than they were in the years leading up to his arrival. While some of that can be attributed to Ryan Day and his coaching staff, Fields has been lauded for his leadership, for his approach to the game, and for his intelligence—with Mark Sanchez dropping this tidbit about Fields’ coachability and mental acumen on the Pat McAfee Show:

"The guy who supposedly can't go through his reads.. Doesn't have great work ethic, all this bogus stuff..

He scored the highest.. Ever"@Mark_Sanchez tells us about Justin Fields & his performance on an aptitude test out of 6,500 professional athletes #PatMcAfeeShowLIVE pic.twitter.com/gNynRbmNCE

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) April 6, 2021

While cognitive analytics are far from a certain science, one of the impressive qualities about Fields—and one that often goes unmentioned—has been how much he’s improved over his two years in college. That points to a certain level of effort and ability to soak in coaching. And with the exception of some random takes from a few anonymous sources, Fields has been highly lauded for his leadership ability. He was the face of the Big Ten’s player/parent movement to restart football after the season was canceled during the summer—a campaign that obviously worked when the Big 10 returned to play months later—he returned for the Clemson game after missing only one or two plays despite (potentially) suffering broken ribs, and there are plays like this on his tape.

👍 pic.twitter.com/g7EhcSdFdL

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

While it’s impossible to say what kind of person and leader someone is from the outside looking in, Fields seems to check all the boxes.

So About Those Two Games…: The Indiana and Northwestern games were ugly enough that they warrant an entire section to themselves. I’ll start with the latter.

In the Big 10 Champ game against Northwestern, Fields looked like a totally different player than we’d seen all season. He was inaccurate, out of rhythm, forced some bad throws that led to turnovers, and at times looked lost on the field. Some of that was Northwestern’s defense (ranked #1 in the nation based on Football Outsiders), which may have had—as weird as it is to say it—the best secondary in the country last year. Some of that was indeed issues that we saw against Indiana once again emerging in Fields’ game. But there were also some very extreme circumstances in that Northwestern game that imply it could have been more of an outlier than a massive red flag.

Ohio State had to cancel two of their past three games leading up to the champ game due to COVID issues in either their program or their opponent’s and entered the Northwestern game with 22(!) players out due to COVID tests and contact tracing. Among those missing were stud wideout Chris Olave, three other receivers, and a tight end. Chemistry is especially important in the Buckeyes’ offense due to its aggressive structure and how many downfield option routes they run. On more than one occasion in this game, you see Fields holding on his No.1 option—waiting for him to get out of his break—only for the two to wind up on the wrong page and the play go south. Granted, Fields isn’t always going to have a No.1 wideout who can get open all the time—and his performance in this game didn’t help the critique that he doesn’t process the field quick enough. Nor was a lack of chemistry and missing players the only reason Fields was off this game; he was also just off. But to me, the extenuating circumstances of the NU game make me want to write it off more as a potential outlier and focus more on the issues he had across both games.

Such as…

Processing Speed Concerns: One of Fields’ biggest knocks is that he’s either a “one-read” quarterback or that he takes too long going through his progressions. He definitely is NOT a one-read quarterback, but the second critique is valid… to an extent. When the Buckeyes run horizontal concepts like mesh—my least favorite concept to scout—you can see Fields quickly get through his progressions and hit the right man. It’s when they run their single-side vertical reads where he seems to lock on too long to his primary receiver.

When I talk about single-side vertical reads I’m basically talking about your standard high-low concepts. Two- or sometimes three-man route combos like “smash” (hitch/quick out and corner) or “levels” (square-in and dig or vice versa), which use routes layered vertically to read the underneath defender and throw the ball where he’s not. However, Ohio State often runs these route combinations like less of a “high-low” and more of a “high-higher.” In essence, they bank on their superior athleticism outside to push the entire progression further down the field—causing the defenders to cover more ground for longer and encouraging the big play down the field. This is great when they can protect it, but when you can’t you get a few instances like this.

A free-rusher with zero check downs available because the receivers aren’t even out of their downfield breaks yet. The running back here may look open from this angle, but he popped and released the rusher, so there’s zero lane to throw that pass, and the backside out is good in theory but potentially disastrous in practice; you’re asking for trouble if you want your quarterback to regularly open play-side then hit an out to the field-side blind if he feels pressure. The result of this play and a handful like it throughout Fields’ tape is him staring at his No.1 receiver for seemingly too long then bailing or looking frantic when the pass rush gets to him. On broadcast, that looks like he’s lost, lacks poise, or can’t get through his progressions. But in the All-22, you can see that sometimes it’s just the inherent downside of an aggressive offense.

That said, I still think processing speed an area where Fields can improve. But in Fields’ case, I think the problem stems less from an inability to process quickly (which is a major red flag) and more from a mindset that is at times too aggressive (which can be fixed). Finding and throwing to an open receiver is always a cost-benefit analysis, and Fields is someone who needs to learn when to cut his losses and take the higher percentage safer throw, rather than wait out a deeper route that may or may not open up. It’s when these deep routes are being called but not opening up and Fields is forcing things that you get the lowlights of his tape. These are the times where you find yourself screaming at the screen to “throw it away!”

😬 pic.twitter.com/gaIagGyfOf

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

Overall, Fields does need to process quicker. And he needs to get better at knowing when to bail off the deep route for a safer throw or when to throw the ball away and live to fight another down. A lot of guys can just beast through broken plays in college because of their overwhelming talent, but learning to recognize the plays where you can’t make a play is crucial towards succeeding in the NFL.

Blitz Misses: This goes hand-in-hand with the above questions on Fields’ processing speed. Indiana and Northwestern had tremendous success against the Buckeyes by utilizing complex blitzes, which—in part—led to Fields throwing five of his six interceptions on the season over that two-game span. Sometimes the blitzes hit home due to Ohio State’s pass protection breaking down or the offense getting too aggressive in its playcalling. Sometimes it was Fields missing the extra rushers and thus failing to speed up his clock to get the ball out faster.

In each of the clips below, you can see checkdown options called underneath in the middle of the field. But in each of the plays, Fields either misses the blitz or holds onto the ball too long in hopes of hitting a deeper route.

👀 pic.twitter.com/TCU8XoYpI2

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 27, 2021

That first clip is a perfect example. Fields needs to recognize that he’s in empty—thus any sixth rusher is fully his responsibility—see that the play-side man on the LOS is dropping into coverage, and know immediately that he should be looking for his hot route inside. Instead, he takes a massive hit which could have easily led to a turnover.

Summary

NFL Comp: Russell Wilson

I think the majority of Fields’ comps are selling short both his accuracy and his intelligence, and while Fields lacks the level of polish that a four-year starter like Wilson had coming out of Wisconsin, you can see the resemblance in their athleticism, sideline accuracy, and affinity for the deep ball.

Despite being listed as 1B to Trevor Lawrence for most of the college football season, Fields seems to have been a victim of overanalyzing this draft season. Yes, he’s got some stuff to clean up and his lowlights are ugly, but the tools, production, leadership, and growth potential are all sky-high. With his accuracy, mobility, and intelligence, a fully-weaponized Fields would basically be the prototype for running our offense and would open up our vertical passing game and off-script offense in ways we’ve yet to see in Shanahan’s tenure.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Draftables: Trey Lance

Trey Lance is largely considered the most difficult evaluation among quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. I’d tend to agree, in part because I haven’t been able to find any All-22 film of him! Therefore, this breakdown is going to be built mostly off of (sigh) broadcast cut-ups. That means there are a few things—like route combinations and the ensuing progressions and anticipation paired with them—that I just won’t be able to see clearly.

Oh, well. Let’s give it a shot anyway.

*Shoutout to whoever the hell zzLIAMzz11 is on YouTube because I lifted 90% of all the game footage I watched from his uploads (marked with the ZZ logo in the clips below). You the real MVP 👌

One day he’ll be able to legally drink [Sam Wasson/Getty Images]

Ht: 6-4
Wt: 224 lbs.
Age: 20(!)
School: North Dakota State

Stats

Build: Basically the physical prototype of a modern quarterback, Lance’s 6-4 224 pound frame may actually fill out more, as he will be only 20 years old (!) by the time the draft rolls around. For all you math majors—that means that Lance wasn’t even born when Tom Brady was drafted, and—unless he sees a precipitous fall on draft day—Lance will be the first person born in the 21st century to be drafted into the NFL. Yes, we are that old. 👵🏻

Experience: Lance has two major knocks on his game and this is one of them. While he’s been the Bison’s starter for the past two years, NDSU’s entire fall season (except for one game) was delayed until spring due to COVID. Thus, Lance has only 17 college starts under his belt. This is actually the same number as Mac Jones, but due to the Bison’s level of play—they’re FBS and Lance has never faced an FCS school—and the fact that Lance only played a single game of football in the past calendar year, the lack of starts is a bit more concerning.

What is NOT concerning is Lance’s absurd production. As a redshirt freshman, Lance threw for 2,786 yards and 28 scores on 66.9% completion percentage, rushed for an additional 1,100 yards and 14 scores on a healthy 6.5ypc (remember, this includes sacks as they’re counted against rushing yards in college), and had ZERO(!) interceptions. This while leading the Bison to an undefeated national championship season and winning the Walter Payton Award given to FCS’ top player. He was 19 at the time. Lance finishes his college career 17-0 as a starter and 32-0 including his redshirt freshman year. After he left school to prepare for the draft, the Bison lost their very first game of the spring season by 24 points.

Injuries: Lance had a “lower body surgery” in the spring of last year to address something from high school (I know it’s vague, it’s all I got), but it didn’t affect him come fall and he seems plenty durable. Similar to how Auburn used Cam Newton, the Bison (pronounced BI-Zuhn for some reason) often used Lance as their defacto fullback on inverted veers and quarterback powers. He is the rare quarterback who can threaten both as a short-yardage runner and with big runs down the sideline. Granted, I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to regularly use your quarterback as an interior runner in the NFL, so like other dual-threat quarterbacks before him, Lance will need to learn when to avoid taking unnecessary hits.

Scouting Report

Bombs Away: When we talked about Zach Wilson, we compared his arm talent to Mahomes or Rodgers, but that was more in regards to the ability to improvise and throw off-platform. While Wilson has plenty of arm strength, the pure velocity that the ball fires out of his hand isn’t on par with the two names above. Lance on the other hand will have an arm that is as good as anyone in the league’s from the second he steps into an NFL locker room. Kid has a hose-and-a-half.

The ball absolutely launches out of his hand on underneath passes with tremendous velocity…

🚀 pic.twitter.com/zkjpvWH0T8

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 19, 2021

Yet he also shows the natural touch to throw catchable deep balls over defenders.

💣 pic.twitter.com/AAVbsAnMek

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 19, 2021

*If you’re wondering why three of those four clips are incompletes, let’s just say Lance wasn’t working with the best receiver corps in Fargo, North Dakota. More on that later. In general, the cut-ups for this write-up aren’t particularly eye-opening as only a handful show anything that broadcast cameras don’t. That said, I would highly recommend checking out the highlight video at the top to get a sense of his pure physical talent. If we go with Lance we’re going for the upside.

I don’t like to spend too much time on pro day workouts cause you’re literally throwing scripted against air, but since we don’t have any All-22 film and Lance couldn’t play except for one game in the fall, I’ll include this embed here.

The best throws from @NDSUFootball QB @TreyLance09's Pro Day!

Lance is rated the No. 3 QB in the 2021 #NFLDraft by @MoveTheSticks. pic.twitter.com/hJEdNDMM7f

— NFL (@NFL) March 12, 2021

Lance’s ability to put the ball anywhere on the field is tailor-made for today’s NFL.

Dual-Threat: Given his rushing stats, it should come as no surprise that Lance is an excellent athlete. While his athleticism is harder to gauge against FCS competition and it would have been nice to see him run the forty-yard dash during the pre-draft process, GPS tracking during the 2019 FCS Champ game clocked him at 21.54mph on the touchdown scamper that kicks off the clips below.

🚤 pic.twitter.com/b2QnI0uA13

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 19, 2021

That time would have been good for 12th-best in the NFL last year and definitely seems faster than he truly is, that at least validates some of his speed. He has good burst and is faster than you think, but also runs with a ton of power and is hard to bring down.

💪🏽 pic.twitter.com/hPNwY5LhNf

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 19, 2021

As has been the warning given to Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and every other dangerous dual-threat quarterback, these are not the kind of collisions we want to see in the NFL. But it is nice to see that he has the strength to escape sacks in the pocket and can lower a shoulder when need be.

Work Ethic / Experience: I know I already touched on Lance’s experience, but I wanted to elaborate just a bit more. His lack of games played and passes thrown has a lot of evaluators frightened because quarterback is typically a position where guys with fewer college starts do worse once they get to the NFL.

Quarterbacks like Dwayne Haskins and JaMarcus Russell—who narrowly beat out future seventh-rounder Matt Flynn for the starting gig entering his final year at LSU—are just two examples of one-year starters who quickly flamed out in the league. That said, Blake Bortles, Josh Freeman, and Josh Rosen all started upwards of 30 games in college and none of them panned out or were “pro ready” as they entered the NFL. Conversely, there was another dude in Haskins’ draft class with even fewer college starts (Kyler Murray), and he seems to have turned out alright.

In the 2017 draft I compared one-year starter Mitch Trubisky—who was getting tons of draft love over accomplished long-time starters DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes—to a dude at a bar with a beard. He may have the shittiest jaw line ever, but since you haven’t yet seen it, you just pretend it’s not a problem and hope for the best. The same goes for quarterbacks with only a single year of film. It’s easy to ignore the warts because you haven’t yet seen them on tape while propping up what’s missing from their game by saying the quarterback “will get there with time.”

Ultimately, the red flag of “lack of experience” is both the worry that a prospect will be bypassing important developmental steps as well as the fact that you have less evidence to make a decision on whether they can take those steps once they reach the NFL. Teams adapt to quarterbacks after having an off-season to look at film and figure out tendencies (just ask Freddie Kitchens-era Baker Mayfield), so everyone wants to see that second starting season to take out some of the guess-work from their evaluations.

All this to say, experience is absolutely a red flag for Lance—both in the number of games he played and the level of competition he was playing against. If he’s handled incorrectly and put in the wrong scheme with the wrong supporting cast, maybe he never develops to reach his potential. That said, people absolutely RAVE about his work ethic, leadership, and locker room presence, despite him being—once again—only twenty years old. He also ran considerably more pro-style concepts than any of the other top-billed quarterbacks in this draft as NDSU asks a lot of its quarterbacks mentally. Lance was tasked with adjusting protections, making checks at the line of scrimmage, and running play action from under center—all traits that will serve him well in the league—and he’s already shown the ability to go through his progressions and process the field quickly.

TLDR, Lance’s lack of experience is a very real worry, but it’s likely an overblown one. And due to his high marks in regards to character and work ethic, I am less worried about him developing than most.

Wavering Accuracy: This, however, is my big worry with Lance. He simply loses the strike zone too much, and—like anticipation and processing speed—consistent accuracy is a trait that some quarterbacks simply never grasp. Obviously, if you can’t be consistently accurate, you cannot succeed in the NFL, and you especially can’t succeed in Shanahan’s offense, which places a high priority on ball placement.

Lance’s misses vary from deep balls that sail to theoretically simple underneath passes.

:/ pic.twitter.com/DFD50EjgYb

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 19, 2021

*For context, Lance has a worse supporting cast than the other guys in contention but is also given fewer easy passes in NDSU’s offense. Plus, his receivers rarely get much separation or come down with tough contested catches. So a wheel route thrown behind a receiver on Lance’s film may tumble out of bounds and incomplete while the same pass in Mac Jones’ film—as we literally saw in his cutups—becomes a casual highlight-reel catch from this year’s Heisman winner.

There were times where I was watching film and thought he put the ball in the right place to keep his receiver from running into coverage or where he underthrew a deep ball specifically to get PI (his wideouts were very good at drawing these calls). Without access to All-22, it becomes even harder to tell who was right, and that doesn’t even take into account the inherent issues with not knowing how each program coaches these routes differently.

As for Lance’s consistency issues on ball placement, I don’t know nearly enough about quarterback mechanics to make a claim as to what’s causing these streaks of inaccuracy. His stroke itself looks pretty good, so if anything I’d assume his accuracy problems have more to do with his shoulders, alignment, etc. To me, that means the potential for fixing the problem is much greater than—for example—someone with a Tim Tebow-esque release.

Will it be fixed? Again, I’m not the guy to make that call, but one would think the coaching staff would be able to assess the likelihood of it after seeing him in person, and his work ethic and coachability will certainly help his cause.

Summary

NFL Comp: Josh Allen

Allen was massively criticized coming out of Wyoming because—in many ways—he went against many of the old-school teachings about what makes a successful NFL quarterback. He was inaccurate, his play dropped off during his last year in college, he didn’t dominate despite playing at a small school, he had poor numbers against Power 5 competition, and people questioned his maturity and leadership skills. But good lord did he have physical tools. And now, three years removed from being picked #7 by the Bills, I’d easily take Allen over any other QB in that draft class.

The Bills had a plan to surround Allen with talent, to let him grow into the position, and to give him extensive one-on-one tutoring in regards to his mechanics. Now, he’s an MVP candidate that just led his team to the AFC Championship game. But his success was due in large part to a wholesale restructuring of the roster and offensive scheme to fit his talents and the ability to lean on a dominant defense until he became the focal point of the team. The Niners seem dead-set on competing this year before having whoever we draft take the reins a year from now. With a roster built to compete now, will we have the patience to invest in what could be a developmental project?

I don’t know if anyone has the physical tools of Allen, but Lance is close, and I think he is more intelligent and mature than Allen was coming out of college. He also lacks any of Allen’s “character concerns”—which, to be fair to Allen, seems to have stemmed from nothing more than high school tweets. It’s also worth noting that we’re evaluating Trey Lance based on his 2019 season while everyone else has the luxury of leaning on their 2020 tape. If we were to compare Lance’s 2019 film to Zach Wilson’s or Mac Jones’ from the same year, Lance would come out on top without question. If his team had a season this fall, he could easily be the favorite to go #2 overall to the Jets.

That’s a lot of “ifs,” even if they’re entirely out of Lance’s control, and the accuracy concerns worry me. What Shanahan’s looking for in a quarterback may have evolved over the years, but it’s never going to migrate away from accuracy as a vitally important trait, and if the Niners think Lance will never become consistent with his ball-placement, they’ll take him off their board. However, the Niners’ current interest is very real—so much so that Lance started working with John Beck—the mutual connection QB coach to Shanahan—a few weeks ago per the Niners’ request, and today (Monday, April 19th), Lance will have his pro day shaped specifically to cater to the Niners’ offense. This gives the Niners’ another trusted eye in the evaluation process and is a borderline brilliant means of getting a lengthier, hands-on evaluation of a prospect who has been hard for scouts to nail down.

Ultimately, I’m bullish on Lance’s potential. He seems to have the mental makeup to overcome the lack of experience, and I think if the Niners—as experts on quarterback coaching and mechanics and with the help of Beck—come away from Lance’s second pro day confident that they can clean up his accuracy, that he could absolutely shred in our system for years to come.

Either way, someone on the Niners is gonna owe John Beck—who also works with Justin Fields and Zach Wilson—a beer. That is unless he doesn’t drink beer (he did go to BYU after all). Or if we draft Mac Jones…

Go Niners 👍🏈

Draftables: Mac Jones

“It’s easier to maximize your ability when you know where that ability ends”
- probably a real person

That may seem like a diss, but you gotta respect what Mac Jones has done with limited physical tools. He’s gone from the afterthought quarterback in one of the best college recruiting classes of all time, to the winner of a preseason quarterback competition with a five-star Kyler Murray-type, to a national championship winner and potential top 5 pick in the NFL draft.

His production this year—while leading one of the top offenses in college football history—was remarkable, but two major questions remain: (1) how much of that production was—like it has been for so many Alabama quarterbacks before—based on the supreme talent and scheme around him; and (2) how will his lack of ideal tools translate to the NFL?

Let’s try our best to find out / guess.

Get… excited? [Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images]

Ht: 6-2
Wt: 217 lbs.
Age: 22
School: Alabama

Stats

Build: Due to his long limbs, I expected Mac (real name “Michael McCorkle”) Jones to be much bigger, but he measured out just a fraction of an inch taller and a few pounds heavier than Zach Wilson. However, the two carry their weight much differently. 

From Day 1 at UA to our last arm care session before the #CFPNationalChampionship...the exemplar of being process-driven in a world so hungry for instant gratification. Your journey is just beginning, and the world hasn’t seen your best...yet! Love you, @MacJones_10. #BamaFactor pic.twitter.com/1sgtuB6oJu

— Josh Hampton (@j_hamp55) January 13, 2021

In essence, Mac Jones has transformed from your cousin’s gangly twelve-year-old friend who tries to hit on all the senior girls at the family Labor Day party to the dad flipping burgers and talking incessantly about his grill at that very same party. 

Tom Brady’s infamous combine pictures are the gold standard for “it doesn’t matter what you look like as long as you can ball,” and—to be fair—there are plenty of NFL quarterbacks who have succeeded without chiseled physiques. So Jones’ bod isn’t actually important, even if it resembles that of a forty-year-old man.

Experience: A redshirt junior at Bama, Mac Jones is often billed as the most pro-ready of the first round quarterbacks but actually has the same number of career starts (17) as Trey Lance, whose entire sophomore season was cut short (except for one game) due to COVID shutdown. Granted, when you sit behind a Heisman front-runner and top 5 pick, the experience questions aren’t held against you as much (see: Murray, Kyler). But we’re still talking about a single season as a starter.

Injuries: Mac was kept pretty clean by Alabama’s elite offensive line and th only injury I could find was that a sprained ankle kept him out of playing in the Senior Bowl this draft season.

Scouting Report

Offensive Mastery: One of the reasons people don’t mention Jones’ lack of college starts is the level of mastery in which he ran Bama’s offense this past season. While he was certainly helped out by a truly unfair collection of talent around him, Jones showed complete control over the Tide’s playbook—which was NFL-like in breadth and complexity, even if it relied much more on RPOs than a pro team—and it’s easy to see how that will translate to the next level.

While he was often knocked as a game manager, Jones regularly puts the ball in the right place at the right time, and that fundamentally simple—but difficult to find—quality shouldn’t be undervalued in his evaluation. His understanding of the Bama offense was so deep that when Bill O’Brien came in to take over as offensive coordinator after the season, Jones was tasked with helping walk him through the playbook.

Reads the Full Field: While Bama was so stacked that he didn’t often have to go through all his progressions, Jones is lightning-quick scanning through his reads and getting the ball to the right player. He processes faster than any of the other quarterbacks in the class, is clean moving through his progressions, and throws with great anticipation, especially when throwing into windows between the hashes.

👀 pic.twitter.com/WyhCWz2T0s

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 7, 2021

As mentioned in the Zach Wilson write-up, anticipation often differentiates starters from busts and is something that some people can learn and others simply never grasp. The fact that Jones already has it is a great sign.

Very good accuracy: When Jones is throwing within the comfort zone of his arm strength, he’s as accurate as any quarterback in this class. He regularly dots receivers in stride on short-to-intermediate routes, shows great touch throwing over underneath defenders, and typically makes work between the hashes look routine. 

🎯 pic.twitter.com/PQnrKMKIjO

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 7, 2021

Despite being a bit gangly, Jones’ throwing motion is compact and efficient, leading to a quick release that can offset some of his arm strength limitations. He does a great job of keeping his mechanics in lockstep on every throw, has fewer eye-popping misses than the other prospects, and can throw down the field successfully when he can get the ball out quick and/or attack the middle of the field. His placement plus release will be an immediate weapon in the RPO and YAC game and will certainly get the attention of Shanahan—who has always prioritized accuracy in evaluating his quarterbacks.

Athleticism: Jones is scaring absolutely no one with his legs, but his athleticism is better than it’s been billed. He’s got quick feet and shows good awareness in the pocket, knowing when to step up or slide from pressure. He’s also much better throwing on the run than he’s given credit for, largely because he does a great job of keeping his eyes downfield and maintaining his upper body mechanics while on the move.

🏃‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/6jNjGXYKIP

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 7, 2021

That said, don’t expect the sort of jaw-dropping off-platform throws that a lot of these other guys have shown throughout their film. When Jones really gets off his mark, is crushed for space and/or time, and has to rely more on his pure arm talent than mechanics, things can fall apart in a hurry. But that’s the case for a number of quarterbacks.

Leadership/Character: The Bama program and its players have spoken very highly of Jones, and he definitely gives off the vibe of a “chill bro” who you like to have around the locker room—an image that he continued to foster while chatting up Shanahan at his pro day. However, his record isn’t pristine. As a freshman, Jones was arrested for a DUI on campus after getting into a car accident at two in the morning.

To his credit, Jones has been open about his mistake and says that it changed his life and his life for the better. Since then, there have been no character issues. He finished his undergraduate studies with a 4.0 GPA in three years and played last season while working towards a masters degree. The DUI seems out-of-character enough and Mac Jones is white enough that it hasn’t gotten a ton of pre-draft attention, and while any red flag is worth investigating—and the Niners certainly will do just that—“dumb college kid does dumb college kid thing” is less likely than others to lead to issues down the road.

Subpar Arm Strength: This is Jones’ biggest knock, and it’s a very legitimate one. It’s not just that his arm strength falls well short of the other quarterbacks on this list—they all have absolute hoses—but that his arm strength will be—at best—average by NFL standards. And you see it on film.

It’s been noted that Jones’ completion percentage on deep passes was actually better than any of the other top QBs in this draft, but... Alex Smith also led the NFL in yards per attempt his last year in Kansas City. If you diagnose the deep ball quickly and let it rip early—as Smith did in KC—you can put up good vertical passing stats, but that’s not the same as threatening teams vertically with arm strength. When Jones really had to open up and uncork it down the field, the ball often wound up short, and he was bailed out more than a few times by great playmakers out wide.

💣 :/ pic.twitter.com/9Bo7r24FMa

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) April 7, 2021

Yes, most of these are completions, but they should have been touchdowns. That’s a lot of points left on the field. Granted, some of these are difficult throws, but they’re also throws that everyone else in contention for the No.3 pick has the arm strength to make (some, with regularity). Jones’ lack of arm strength also showed on quick balls outside the hashes and on some crossers when he had to throw across his body.

While he has enough oomph to get the ball to most spots on the field and should have few issues between the hashes, his arm strength is limited enough that it will affect the playbook and what we’d feel comfortable running.

Summary

NFL Comp: Swaggier Kirk Cousins

In the past decade, how many quarterbacks have played at a truly elite level with only average arm talent? I would argue two, and both of them (Brady and Brees) are first-ballot Hall of Famers and two of the smartest and most accurate quarterbacks of all time. Sure, Joe Burrow—last year’s #1 pick and a player who Jones is often compared to—also lacked ideal arm talent, but Burrow was considerably more effective off-script than Jones and had truly elite accuracy. Matt Ryan has also been the comp for people who are high on Jones, although I’d argue Ryan’s arm is better and that he was more accurate for longer through college—despite considerably worse numbers due to situation and supporting cast. A solid-but-not-spectacular Kirk Cousins or a more accurate-but-less-athletic Alex Smith is closer to where I’d guess. If he doesn’t occasionally wilt like Cousins, then is that enough?

While you can have prolonged success as a running back who’s not that fast (Frank Gore) or a receiver who’s not that big (Marvin Harrison), a quarterback’s skillset dictates the entirety of your offensive playbook. Gore didn’t have to run fly sweeps and quick pitches because there was always a backup or gadget player for that. Harrison didn’t need to win jump balls in the end zone because at any given time there were 2-3 other receivers they could line up opposite him to accomplish that task. As we’ve seen with Jimmy, if your quarterback isn’t comfortable (or capable) throwing the deep ball, the deep ball no longer exists in your playbook. If we’re going out of our way to replace Garoppolo, do we want to do so with someone who doesn’t let us expand our playbook?

I would absolutely take Mac Jones after the first round. Depending on who was still on the board, I would maybe take him at 12. Jones’ intelligence and accuracy should allow him to be a long-time player in this league—arm concerns be damned—the question is in what capacity. If the end result is an average-to-above average starter, have we improved from Jimmy G? Because that’s a major draft capital loss for a lateral move—even if Jones has fewer injury problems.

Since we traded four picks—three of them first-rounders—for a chance to move up for a quarterback in a loaded class, I want someone with higher upside whose tools let us open up our offense and better utilize the weapons at our disposal. I want someone who I can envision being a top 5 quarterback in this league for the next decade. If that’s our expectation for Mac Jones then—considering his physical limitations—he has little to no room for error. We’d be banking on him becoming Tom Brady or Drew Brees—the two greatest outliers at the position of the past twenty years—and referencing past outliers to shape current decisions is a surefire way of missing more often than you hit.

I believe that if we take Jones at three he’ll have success in Shanahan’s system. His accuracy, quick decision-making, and smarts should allow him that floor. But for what we gave up to get that pick, the goal should be more than that. If the Niners do wind up with Jones—which every media person seems oddly sure of—then they’d better be absolutely positive he’ll reach his ceiling.

Go Niners 👍🏈