Shit’s About To Go Down

AAAAAAAAH [Getty Images]

By approximately 5:30 tonight, booze will be had. The only question is what type, in what fashion, and in what state of mind. We’re just hours away from learning who will be the Niners’ quarterback for (hopefully) the next 10+ years. Here are some final thoughts and my final QB rankings.

Smoke Season in Full Swing

Once the dust settles, it’ll be interesting to see which reporters were “right” and what was simply conjecture and smokescreens. Every other day there have been new “reports” from “sources” about the direction the Niners are going. Personally, I think a lot of those reports are based on people guessing. But I’d also be willing to accept some level of gamesmanship.

The current Niners regime hasn’t had ANY leaks through their first four years. Not when they traded for Garoppolo, or when they traded away DeFo, or when they moved up to take Foster or Aiyuk in the draft, or even when they made this massive blockbuster trade that seemingly came out of nowhere. It would be foolish to think that after all that, they are now the most loose-lipped team in the country. 

While it’s easy to ask “what do we have to gain?” from all this drama when the top two picks in the draft seem set in stone, it’s even easier to ask “what do we have to lose?” People do crazy, stupid shit on draft day, Trent Baalke and Joe Douglas are still picking 1 and 2, and—in the incredibly unlikely scenario that the Niners feel confident enough in the picks below them and the talent at quarterback that we try to trade down and still get their guy—the cloud of smoke at least gives us the competitive advantage of knowing who we want when no one else does. At the very least it means that the teams after us will be scrambling once our pick comes in. Even that is a minor win.

That said, it’s not hard to envision this being a YOLO. The Niners know that the first two picks have been solidified for a month now so perhaps they’re allowing information to seep out about their process and their preferences because they frankly don’t care what anyone knows at this point. No one is going to move ahead of them. No one is going to prevent them from getting their guy at No.3. And the entire point in moving all the way up to three was to assure themselves that kind of freedom in their scouting process. But while moving up to three allows us to do things like host second pro days for two quarterbacks—one of whom we convinced to work with a coach who we know very well—the endless contradictory sources assures that at least some of what’s been reported is totally made up.

Either way, we’ll find out tonight.

Don’t Make a One-Year Decision on a Ten-Year Investment

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “Mac Jones is the most pro-ready of the prospects and the Niners don’t want to keep Jimmy G around, so naturally, the Niners should draft Mac Jones.” 

I don’t remember which fallacy of reasoning this falls under, but I’m sure it checks about half of them. And I’ll bring up later the question of Mac Jones’ pro-readiness. But the Niners are making this pick for one reason and one reason only: to get the best guy to lead them for the next 10+ years. NOT the guy who makes Jimmy G the most expendable in 2021. NOT the guy who is gonna look the best right out of the gate. We just traded three first-round picks to hand-select our franchise quarterback. There is quite literally no time like right this second when we should be making a long-term decision.

Yes, in an ideal world the rookie is so good and we’re so confident that giving him immediate snaps is the best path to helping him reach his potential that we can trade Jimmy before the season, save $25M in cap space, and start the [whoever we draft] era immediately. But the single most important part of that equation is—without question—getting the right guy and doing whatever we can to make sure he reaches his potential. 

Everything else is—at best—a distant second.

The Scheme is More Flexible Than You Think

We talked about what qualities Shanahan and Lynch were likely to prioritize when evaluating the quarterbacks in this draft, but while traits like accuracy and intelligence will always be important within our scheme, we need to stop acting like Shanahan’s current playbook is exactly what he wants to run.

Shanahan’s a smart dude. When he got a new starting quarterback midway through his first year in San Francisco, he adapted the offense to better fit what that quarterback could do. Quick hitters inside, more shotgun, less outside-the-hash and down-the-field work; these were not decisions made in a vacuum but ones made to best accent Garoppolo’s strengths and minimize his weaknesses. A year before that, Shanahan led Matt Ryan to an MVP season while leading the league in yards/attempt, adjusted yards/attempt, and touchdown percentage. Four years before that, Shanahan led RG3 to rookie of the year honors as he rushed for 800+ yards on a league-leading 6.8 yards/carry. There’s flexibility to what this offense can become.

Shanahan’s offense will always feature a handful of staples, but looking at the Niners’ scheme now and saying “this is exactly what Shanahan wants” is a bold claim. If anything, we should be expecting changes. Because this was a hell of an aggressive move up the draft to stand pat offensively.

The “Mahomes Plan” is Still Viable

There’s been a lot of talk about how no one gets drafted as high as No.3 to sit for a year behind another quarterback. While the idea of Jimmy being moved before or during the draft has certainly picked up some steam of late—and could ultimately be the right decision—the thought process that many are using to justify it is greatly flawed.

These are the most common arguments I’ve heard:

1 - Sitting your QB means you lose a year of savings off their rookie contract: In absolute terms, this is obviously false. The rookie’s salary number is going to be the same regardless of if they start in 2021 or not. But the argument that’s trying to be made—that you want to get as many starting years out of a rookie contract as possible—is also false, but for different reasons.

I sort of talked about this already, but the combination of savings you get from cutting a veteran starter and milking every year out of a depressed rookie contract is never more important than ACTUALLY WINNING GAMES. None of that other stuff matters if it hinders the selection and development of your future quarterback.

If you asked the Chiefs if they’d have rather played Mahomes as a rookie as opposed to letting him learn under Smith but with the caveat that it could hinder his development, the answer would be a resounding hell no. Penny pinching is great when you have your core players at important positions locked up and are trying to save money to build up the rest of the roster. But saving money just to save money in a hard salary cap league run by billionaires where approximately 90% of their salary caps are paid by revenue sharing should never be mistaken for doing the thing you set out to do as a franchise in the first place: win games. 

Once again, your decisions need to be made based on the best player and the best way to help him develop into the franchise quarterback that you just traded all those picks for.

2 - The best way to get better is to get meaningful snaps as quickly as possible: For some people, sure. In the right system, with the right coaches and supporting cast. But there are decades of evidence refuting this claim as an absolute. Just ask Josh Rosen.

3 - The Mahomes situation was “a different time”: No it wasn’t. When Mahomes was drafted in 2017, the NFL was still under the same collective bargaining agreement that we’re under now, the rookie pay scale was already in effect, and teams were already slinging the ball all over the place due to changes in rules and the growing popularity of RPOs. While rule changes are perpetual and the way the NFL has shifted things in the past calendar year has moved the goal posts a bit in terms of optimizing your offense, player acquisition and development has largely stayed unchanged.

It’s also worth noting, that—even for it’s time—Mahome’s patient developmental schedule was rare—just as Aaron Rodgers’ was before him. That’s probably because—for the most part—a team’s not drafting a quarterback in the first round when they’ve already got an above average-or-better performer at the position. Most teams taking first-round quarterbacks are subpar squads attempting to add a crucial piece who will help them ascend to relevancy, not perennial playoff contenders. But in the case of both Mahomes and Rodgers, they entered into teams with capable multi-year starters at quarterback and playoff-worthy supporting casts. They were not needed to save the franchise. Thus, they were given time to develop. As a team one year removed from a #1 seed and a Super Bowl appearance with the quarterback who got us there still on the roster, we’re in a similarly unique position as the Chiefs and the Packers once were. Where most teams picking this high would not have the luxury of sitting a rookie, we do. And because of that, it should at least be considered.

If we believe our rookie will develop best by sitting on the bench all year, then so be it. If we think getting thrown into the fire will be the best way for them to improve, then that’s the route we should take. But just because the situational dynamics of most teams picking a first round quarterback dictate that said quarterback should see meaningful snaps as a rookie, doesn’t mean that we need to/nor should follow in their footsteps.

Final QB Rankings

Not including Trevor Lawrence, for obvious reasons

1. Justin Fields: Despite Shanahan seemingly going out of his way at the post-trade presser to debunk this very claim, everyone still seems to think that his ideal quarterback is Kirk Cousins. This is a guy who grew up watching his dad win three chips with Steve Young and John Elway—mobile Hall of Fame quarterbacks with rocket arms. You can’t tell me that after all that, Cousins is his ideal quarterback.

Yes, Fields’ ugliest film can get pretty ugly, but his mobility, accuracy, and intelligence all fit our scheme like a glove—while his skill set would allow us to open up the offense beyond what we’ve seen thus far in the Shanahan era. His incredible ball placement raises his floor and makes him less risky than someone like Lance, he’s already shown the ability to improve considerably between seasons—which is great for his long-term trajectory—and he’s started two straight years at a high level against top tier competition, which again hedges some of the inherent risk in taking a quarterback this high.

To me, Fields has the best chance to be that guy who had the tape, had the tools, and had the production, but somehow managed to slip on draft day regardless. The dude who people spend the next decade saying “how did this happen?” That is, unless the Niners pick him at No.3

T-2. Trey Lance: Lance had more inaccuracy issues on tape than I’d originally thought, and those are genuine concerns, but that doesn’t mean I’ve soured on him. I just can’t get over what he accomplished at his age and how everyone else that we’ve been evaluating is not only multiple years older but is being scouted based on newer tape and a better supporting cast. There’s a real chance that Lance has already fixed some of the issues that he had in 2019 because he was a 19 year-old redshirt freshman at the time and he’s had plenty of time since then to work one-on-one with QB coaches to improve his mechanics. Projected growth is a major part of the scouting process that many tend to ignore—especially when it comes to this position, and to me, Lance’s trajectory is a rocket heading into space. Think back to how you were at 19 versus 22, audibly cringe, and then look at what Lance has already accomplished before he can legally drink.

Maybe he’s not a guy who starts in 2021, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if he’s closer to pro-ready than many people are saying. Remember, this is a guy who was a much more efficient passer in his first year as a starter than Carson Wentz—a four-year player in the exact same system—was throughout his career. While Wentz has had his ups and downs in the league, he was still a rookie starter and nearly won the MVP in his second year en route to a Super Bowl. Everyone has said that Lance needs to sit a year enough that people seem to take it as fact. Maybe he does. But there’s at least a chance he doesn’t.

As far as the scouting process goes, I cannot stress enough how brilliant the move was by the Niners to reach out to Lance and get him hooked up with John Beck. Not only has that connection given Lance some high-level coaching—he’s already working on improving his lower body mechanics to help his accuracy issues—but it gives the Niners an in-depth look from a trusted eye on a player with a lot of question marks during a COVID-altered scouting process. For a player with so little on tape and so much projection, that extra look is a massive deal that makes me much more comfortable if Lance is the pick at No.3.

To be certain, Lance is still a MAJOR risk. I don’t want to minimize the question marks that come along with inconsistent accuracy and lack of tape. I get that, and that’s probably the main reason I have Fields ahead of him in these rankings. But I’d be more than happy to get either of those two at No.3.

T-2. Zach Wilson: As much as I love Wilson’s improvisational ability and off-platform arm, after watching more film, Fields and Lance certainly have more physical talent. Combine that with BYU’s soft schedule (although they did play two top 20 defenses in SDSU and Coastal Carolina) and the fact that their offensive line was absolutely amazing last year, and that’s led to a slight slip from Wilson in my rankings. Overall, some of his production may not have matched his process last year and that will be harder to get over in the NFL.

To be clear, I’m still really high on Wilson, and he and Lance are kneck-and-kneck for me at two. There’s also certainly some inherent Niners optimism bias in this ranking—as Wilson is nearly a lock to be off the board by the time that we’re picking. But I’m hoping that counteracts the inherent bias the other way that came from Wilson being someone who I diagnosed as both a first-round talent and a nice schematic fit before most experts did. With this ranking, I’m basically trying to balance out my two favorite things: the Niners winning games and me being right. Ultimately, it’s unlikely to matter, as the Jets are picking Wilson at two. But if he does somehow fall to us, I would have zero qualms swooping him up.

4. Mac Jones: Distant fourth. The other guys are quite simply in another tier, and while I think Jones—and any of the above quarterbacks—would succeed in Shanahan’s system, the more I’ve watched of other players in the running the more I realize how big the gap is between them and Jones. I just don’t see the ceiling to warrant the pick. Not this high. Not with what we gave up. And after watching film of everyone else, I think some of the strengths of Jones’ game are overrated as well.

As an example, with all the (inaccurate) talk of Fields or Lance being “one read and run” quarterbacks, I was curious to see if anyone actually charted out data to back up those claims. It turns out, someone has. And while I can’t speak to the methods nor the accuracy of this data, The Draft Network’s findings on rate of success for throws thrown beyond the quarterback’s first read were very interesting:

I have no idea how they measured “placement” or “accuracy” for this study so let’s just ignore those categories. It’s also worth noting that Mac Jones had DeVonta Smith—the best receiver in the country—as his No.1, so he definitely should have thrown to him more often than average, and—when you think about the other weapons that were at his disposal—it was likely harder for opposing defenses to double or commit extra help Smith’s way. So he definitely definitely should have thrown to his No.1 more often than average. Basically, there is a ton of noise in the stats above, and you don’t want to punish someone for having a good play caller and receivers who get open. But while I would NOT hold these figures as gospel, they do point to two things for me: (1) Alabama’s current offense (not their offense four years ago) is more RPO-heavy and less pro-style than most would have you believe, while Ohio State’s current offense (not their offense with Haskins or under Urban Meyer before that) runs more multi-progression passes than you’d think; and (2) neither Fields nor Lance are anything close to “one read and run” quarterbacks.

So how does this relate directly back to Jones? Much of his appeal is polish. It’s that he’s the “safest” of the high picks because the other guys are much less developed. But as we chip away at some of the myths about Fields’ and Lance’s ability to process the field and their pro-readiness, Jones’ supposed advantage begins to lessen. And ultimately, I don’t think Mac Jones is as “safe” a pick as we’ve been led to believe. A lack of physical tools means you have no margin for error, and it’s easier for me to bank on Fields improving his processing speed under Shanahan’s tutelage or Lance improving his accuracy with continued throwing mechanics work than Jones becoming one of the smartest quarterbacks in the entire NFL. Oftentimes when quarterbacks are deemed more “pro-ready” that’s really just subconscious code for “they’re closer to tapping out their ceiling.” And oftentimes when scouts gush endlessly about someone’s smarts it’s because there’s nothing else traits-wise to talk about in their game. While Jones may indeed wind up the most pro-ready, he’s clearly the closest to his ceiling, and I’m not comfortable with his projected growth. As stated above, this pick is about long-term return, not short-term return, and in the case of Jones vs. Fields/Lance, you could argue the latter two have Jones beat in both categories.

Given this particular situation, it would also be malpractice not to point out how the narrative is different for white and black quarterbacks, with Jones—due to no fault of his own—being the beneficiary in this three-man race. The whole “seems like a good kid from a good family” and “I could see myself cracking a beer and hitting the links with him” line of thought has basically been unavoidable this draft season and that could easily be inflating Jones’ perceived value. For example:

Lance led his team to an undefeated championship at nineteen, Fields was recruited by Harvard and Yale, and yet Jones is the one who is lauded for his prodigious smarts. Jones had the fewest starts of any of these top quarterback prospects—tied with Lance only because of COVID—and ran the same offense that was just criticized last year in Tua’s evaluation for being too-RPO-heavy, but is immediately the most “pro-ready?” Jones was arrested for a DUI at the same age Lance was winning a chip and the Walter Payton Player of the Year Award, but Fields is the one who is getting called out by “anonymous sources” over “character concerns?” Lance was a two-star recruit whose only quarterback offer was to North Dakota State, yet Jones is the “scrappy underdog?”

Seeing the comparisons between Jones and the other prospects reminds me of every time Michael Bluth met his son’s girlfriend in Arrested Development:

I just don’t see it.

This isn’t meant to rip Jones. He’s got talent. He’s accurate. He processes quickly. He’ll get the ball out of his hands in a hurry, which I know Shanahan would appreciate, and if he ends up being the pick I will be rooting as hard as possible for him to succeed. Which I think he would. Because Shanahan is our coach. But any time I think of picking Jones ahead of Fields and Lance, my mind immediately turns to opportunity cost. What draft capital did we give up to get him? If we’re getting just an average starting quarterback, where else could those picks have gone? What are we giving up schematically in terms of improving and evolving our offense by passing on the superior physical tools of Fields and Lance? And just as importantly, what does Mac Jones give us that Lance or Fields doesn’t? And for that last question, I don’t have an answer.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it (thankfully) for the last time here. Whether I’m right or wrong (and it’s happened before), please for the love of our collective sanities, make the right pick. Whoever that may be. Because the right pick could launch us into Super Bowl contention for the next decade. And I really don’t want to spend another April looking at quarterbacks in another three or four years.

Go Niners 👍🏈