Draftables: Justin Fields
Whereas a lack of All-22 footage made for a frustrating evaluation of Trey Lance, coaches film was massively beneficial in scouting Justin Fields—who certainly has his faults but looks much better when those faults are viewed in context.
In short, we’re looking at another dude with tremendous physical tools and college production who’ll need to iron out a few things that won’t fly on the NFL level, but if he can show those improvements, Fields has all the makings of an ideal triggerman for Shanahan’s offense.
![(Some lazy pun) Fields Forever [G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1619498028410-7DIYFQSCJU49I29LKVCS/Fields+photo.jpeg)
(Some lazy pun) Fields Forever [G Fiume/Maryland Terrapins]
Ht: 6-2.5”
Wt: 227 lbs.
Age: 22
School: Ohio State
Stats
Build: Justin Fields measured in at 6-2.5” and 227 pounds at his pro day. Like Lance, he basically has the prototypical build for a modern NFL quarterback.
Experience: A two-year starter at Ohio State who also played in all 12 games at Georgia in a sub-package role as a freshman, Fields has more starts (22) and legitimate game experience than either Jones—who didn’t see meaningful snaps until Tua went down late in the 2019 season—or Lance—who redshirted after a few games as a freshman then saw his sophomore year postponed due to COVID.
As Lance and Wilson get knocked for playing against subpar competition, it’s also worth noting that—while Ohio State only played in eight games this season due to COVID outbreaks in the midwest—three of them were against defenses ranked in Football Outsiders’ top five. He absolutely torched one of them (#3 Clemson) while showing warts against the other two (#1 Northwestern; #5 Indiana). If not for those latter two games, I think there’s little chance he’s slipping past the Jets at #2.
As for Fields’ schedule comparison versus Mac Jones? Despite Bama being the national champs and playing a full schedule in the SEC, the SEC had a very down year in terms of defensive performance in 2020. Of the 13 schools, only two made it into FO’s top 44 defenses (#12 Georgia and Bama themselves at #20). Combine that with their playoff opponents (#24 Notre Dame and #47 Ohio State), and Jones played against a considerably easier slate of defenses while being surrounded by better offensive talent.
Injuries: Despite—and in part, because of—his mobility, Fields has taken some big hits in college (too many, which we’ll touch on later), but he’s shown excellent toughness throughout. He had some kind of knee injury on the back end of his first year in Columbus, but he played through it into the playoffs, and he suffered a rib injury in the semifinals last year, which—after taking what I have to assume was the biggest cortisone shot in the history of mankind—he returned from and promptly had the best game of his career. Knock on wood, as long as he learns to protect his body in the NFL, he doesn’t seem like a major injury risk.
Scouting Breakdown
Like Bullseye-ing Womprats: When I first popped on Fields’ tape, my immediate reaction was “whoa, this guy is way more accurate than Mac Jones.” And then I got to the Northwestern game. Ultimately, I still think Fields is the most accurate quarterback in this draft, and here’s why.
Accuracy is really a two-pronged evaluation. It’s about throwing consistently catchable balls and high-end placement. If you are consistently throwing within the catch radius (or “good enough”) that’s one form of accuracy. If you are breadbasket or bust that’s another type of accuracy (although you can’t miss THAT much and ever truly be considered accurate). And if you’re regularly blowing up the Death Star with your eyes closed (peak Brady, Brees, Montana), that’s the ideal blend of both.
Jones, with his excellent and repeatable mechanics, had fewer misses than Fields, but his placement—due in part to his lack of arm strength leading to some issues on crossing routes across his body and deep balls—is closer to a B+ than an A. Jones’ record-setting completion percentages are due in part to an incredible cast of pass catchers around him and an offense that prioritizes quick releases and RPOs. While Fields has more misses— which are largely clustered around that two-game stretch—his placement is absolutely incredible on all three levels.
Fields excels at throwing over underneath defenders with both accuracy and anticipation when attacking the intermediate zones of a defense:
He shows great placement when flushed and throwing on the move:
And he has impressive touch while dropping money balls down the field:
Advanced stats seem to back this up as well. According to PFF, Justin Fields was tops in the nation in ball placement over the past two years, while—according to ESPN—Fields led this quarterback class in the lowest percentage of off-target throws between 11-20 yards (6.9% to Jones’ 7.7%) and was considerably better than anyone else hitting those depths on passes thrown outside the hashes (4.4% to Trevor Lawrence’s 11.9%). That second stat seems a testament to Fields’ arm strength as well.
Those are field-side deep outs on a college field, where the hashes are wider than in the NFL. While Fields doesn’t have the absolute howitzer that Lance possesses, his arm is very strong, even by NFL standards.
Granted, when Fields misses he typically misses worse than someone like Jones, and he’ll need to clean some things up mechanically to iron that out, but considering he still threw well enough to lead the nation in so many accuracy metrics, he’s not as hot-and-cold as some would have you believe.
Bigger, Faster, Stronger (than you probably think): Despite his size, Fields ran a 4.44 at his pro day. And he slipped in the middle of it.
Needless to say, the kid is athletic. Ohio State ran a lot of play action boot looks (although typically from the gun) to take advantage of the wider hashes and to allow Fields run-pass options if routes weren’t open. Fields has also shown the ability to use his athleticism to create dynamic plays on the ground when plays break down.
Not Dwayne Haskins: Just as it’s impossible not to mention the slew of Bama quarterbacks who have won championships and put up gaudy stats in college only to flame out in the NFL, there will always be some hesitation about drafting an Ohio State quarterback until a single one of them pans out. If that sounds like hyperbole, the Ohio State alum who’s had the most success as an NFL quarterback was Mike Tomczak, who went undrafted in 1985 (despite the draft being 12 rounds) and was mostly a backup. He was, however, the only former Buckeye I saw (in a five-minute search) who started more than 10 games in a single season. In the history of the NFL.
Some of that can be attributed to the Buckeyes’ formerly conservative nature and their time as an option team, but the fact that the last OSU quarterback to enter the league was cut less than two seasons after being a first-round pick means Fields is fighting history. Luckily for Fields, he seems like the exact opposite of Haskins.
Ohio State has been much better and more consistent with Fields under center than they were in the years leading up to his arrival. While some of that can be attributed to Ryan Day and his coaching staff, Fields has been lauded for his leadership, for his approach to the game, and for his intelligence—with Mark Sanchez dropping this tidbit about Fields’ coachability and mental acumen on the Pat McAfee Show:
While cognitive analytics are far from a certain science, one of the impressive qualities about Fields—and one that often goes unmentioned—has been how much he’s improved over his two years in college. That points to a certain level of effort and ability to soak in coaching. And with the exception of some random takes from a few anonymous sources, Fields has been highly lauded for his leadership ability. He was the face of the Big Ten’s player/parent movement to restart football after the season was canceled during the summer—a campaign that obviously worked when the Big 10 returned to play months later—he returned for the Clemson game after missing only one or two plays despite (potentially) suffering broken ribs, and there are plays like this on his tape.
While it’s impossible to say what kind of person and leader someone is from the outside looking in, Fields seems to check all the boxes.
So About Those Two Games…: The Indiana and Northwestern games were ugly enough that they warrant an entire section to themselves. I’ll start with the latter.
In the Big 10 Champ game against Northwestern, Fields looked like a totally different player than we’d seen all season. He was inaccurate, out of rhythm, forced some bad throws that led to turnovers, and at times looked lost on the field. Some of that was Northwestern’s defense (ranked #1 in the nation based on Football Outsiders), which may have had—as weird as it is to say it—the best secondary in the country last year. Some of that was indeed issues that we saw against Indiana once again emerging in Fields’ game. But there were also some very extreme circumstances in that Northwestern game that imply it could have been more of an outlier than a massive red flag.
Ohio State had to cancel two of their past three games leading up to the champ game due to COVID issues in either their program or their opponent’s and entered the Northwestern game with 22(!) players out due to COVID tests and contact tracing. Among those missing were stud wideout Chris Olave, three other receivers, and a tight end. Chemistry is especially important in the Buckeyes’ offense due to its aggressive structure and how many downfield option routes they run. On more than one occasion in this game, you see Fields holding on his No.1 option—waiting for him to get out of his break—only for the two to wind up on the wrong page and the play go south. Granted, Fields isn’t always going to have a No.1 wideout who can get open all the time—and his performance in this game didn’t help the critique that he doesn’t process the field quick enough. Nor was a lack of chemistry and missing players the only reason Fields was off this game; he was also just off. But to me, the extenuating circumstances of the NU game make me want to write it off more as a potential outlier and focus more on the issues he had across both games.
Such as…
Processing Speed Concerns: One of Fields’ biggest knocks is that he’s either a “one-read” quarterback or that he takes too long going through his progressions. He definitely is NOT a one-read quarterback, but the second critique is valid… to an extent. When the Buckeyes run horizontal concepts like mesh—my least favorite concept to scout—you can see Fields quickly get through his progressions and hit the right man. It’s when they run their single-side vertical reads where he seems to lock on too long to his primary receiver.
When I talk about single-side vertical reads I’m basically talking about your standard high-low concepts. Two- or sometimes three-man route combos like “smash” (hitch/quick out and corner) or “levels” (square-in and dig or vice versa), which use routes layered vertically to read the underneath defender and throw the ball where he’s not. However, Ohio State often runs these route combinations like less of a “high-low” and more of a “high-higher.” In essence, they bank on their superior athleticism outside to push the entire progression further down the field—causing the defenders to cover more ground for longer and encouraging the big play down the field. This is great when they can protect it, but when you can’t you get a few instances like this.
A free-rusher with zero check downs available because the receivers aren’t even out of their downfield breaks yet. The running back here may look open from this angle, but he popped and released the rusher, so there’s zero lane to throw that pass, and the backside out is good in theory but potentially disastrous in practice; you’re asking for trouble if you want your quarterback to regularly open play-side then hit an out to the field-side blind if he feels pressure. The result of this play and a handful like it throughout Fields’ tape is him staring at his No.1 receiver for seemingly too long then bailing or looking frantic when the pass rush gets to him. On broadcast, that looks like he’s lost, lacks poise, or can’t get through his progressions. But in the All-22, you can see that sometimes it’s just the inherent downside of an aggressive offense.
That said, I still think processing speed an area where Fields can improve. But in Fields’ case, I think the problem stems less from an inability to process quickly (which is a major red flag) and more from a mindset that is at times too aggressive (which can be fixed). Finding and throwing to an open receiver is always a cost-benefit analysis, and Fields is someone who needs to learn when to cut his losses and take the higher percentage safer throw, rather than wait out a deeper route that may or may not open up. It’s when these deep routes are being called but not opening up and Fields is forcing things that you get the lowlights of his tape. These are the times where you find yourself screaming at the screen to “throw it away!”
Overall, Fields does need to process quicker. And he needs to get better at knowing when to bail off the deep route for a safer throw or when to throw the ball away and live to fight another down. A lot of guys can just beast through broken plays in college because of their overwhelming talent, but learning to recognize the plays where you can’t make a play is crucial towards succeeding in the NFL.
Blitz Misses: This goes hand-in-hand with the above questions on Fields’ processing speed. Indiana and Northwestern had tremendous success against the Buckeyes by utilizing complex blitzes, which—in part—led to Fields throwing five of his six interceptions on the season over that two-game span. Sometimes the blitzes hit home due to Ohio State’s pass protection breaking down or the offense getting too aggressive in its playcalling. Sometimes it was Fields missing the extra rushers and thus failing to speed up his clock to get the ball out faster.
In each of the clips below, you can see checkdown options called underneath in the middle of the field. But in each of the plays, Fields either misses the blitz or holds onto the ball too long in hopes of hitting a deeper route.
That first clip is a perfect example. Fields needs to recognize that he’s in empty—thus any sixth rusher is fully his responsibility—see that the play-side man on the LOS is dropping into coverage, and know immediately that he should be looking for his hot route inside. Instead, he takes a massive hit which could have easily led to a turnover.
Summary
NFL Comp: Russell Wilson
I think the majority of Fields’ comps are selling short both his accuracy and his intelligence, and while Fields lacks the level of polish that a four-year starter like Wilson had coming out of Wisconsin, you can see the resemblance in their athleticism, sideline accuracy, and affinity for the deep ball.
Despite being listed as 1B to Trevor Lawrence for most of the college football season, Fields seems to have been a victim of overanalyzing this draft season. Yes, he’s got some stuff to clean up and his lowlights are ugly, but the tools, production, leadership, and growth potential are all sky-high. With his accuracy, mobility, and intelligence, a fully-weaponized Fields would basically be the prototype for running our offense and would open up our vertical passing game and off-script offense in ways we’ve yet to see in Shanahan’s tenure.
Go Niners 👍🏈