2021 Team Preview: The Rookies

*Trey 2 Trey, hot new 90’s RnB group or dynamic backfield? [USA Today]*

Training camp is a few days in. Our first pre-season game is just over a week away. It’s about that time to dust off the old hype train and get back to it.

We’ll start with the rookies. But first, a few thoughts on the draft class as a whole.

DRAFT TRENDS

Fit over perceived value: Fit over perceived value: More than a few experts have said we reached on our second-day picks while getting great value on our third-round picks. Ultimately, everything after the first few tiers of players becomes very much up for debate, but what’s clear is that the Niners really narrowed in on their dudes and got them—some higher than many would expect they’d go. We’ve talked before about the Niners potentially being too aggressive when it comes to moving up and “getting their dudes”—as opposed to accumulating more picks and thus more swings at the plate—but those moves have also led to guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Dre Greenlaw. Time will tell if we reached on some of these guys or not, but the Niners clearly prioritized fit in this class, both schematically and within the locker room.
Guys they could scout the most: While Lance’s lack of film is well-known, the Niners had weeks of in-depth scouting courtesy of their connection with John Beck and Lance’s second pro day. He was thoroughly scouted. And in a year when prospect interaction was down across the league due to COVID restrictions, the Niners really leaned into picking guys who they could scout the most. Out of the eight draftees, five played in the Senior Bowl. One who didn’t—Deommodore Lenoir—has a mentor and former high school coach who is close with Richard Sherman. Aaron Banks was vouched for by Mike McGlinchey and Notre Dame’s OL coach—who Chris Foerster has a good relationship with. In a year when they couldn’t meet most prospects in person, the Niners relied heavily on trusted confidants within coaching and scouting circles to ensure that the guys they were looking at were culture fits.
A weird year for roster building: While the bevy of picks that we sent away to draft Lance would make one assume that our goal was to trade back and accumulate as many picks as possible, that would have been hard to do given our roster make-up. With so many returning veterans on one-year contracts, we don’t actually have many viable roster openings for the 2021 season. So while accumulating picks for the 2022 draft and beyond makes total sense (when we’ll have plenty of openings), simply adding more guys who would then get cut after training camp would have been a waste of capital. It’s an odd position to be in and likely not one that we’ll see again next off-season.

Round 1, Pick 3: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Despite putting Fields ahead of Lance in my final QB rankings, this was a case where my head said Fields while my heart said Lance. So, as a fan, I am absolutely thrilled with this pick. While that may sound like I’m changing my mind after the fact, Fields’ ranking was always based on the idea that his larger sample size and superior accuracy made me—as someone who had never sat down with either player and who did not have access to All-22 film of Trey Lance—want to hedge risk. It was a final ranking made knowing that I had considerably less information on one of the prospects than the other, and it always came with the stated caveat that if the Niners were blown away by Lance in the interview process and if they thought he had already taken big steps towards improving his accuracy, that they ought to take the swing and lean towards the superior upside. Clearly, that wound up being the case.

Remember, the team’s goal is to draft players not for what they are or what they can be, but what they are most likely to become. In that regard, Lance’s intangibles, intelligence, processing speed, and physical traits were always going to help his cause, but—if early training camp reports have any merit (and training camp reports must always be taken with a giant grain of salt)—we may have struck gold on the trait that is so often hard to predict and regularly undervalued: growth trajectory. When we talk ad nauseam about how Lance accomplished this and that at only 19 or 20 years-old, it’s not simply to commend a prodigious talent but to use his past accomplishments as a means for gauging how high and how fast he may grow to hit future ones. And from beat reporters to players to the head man himself, everyone agrees that Lance has improved dramatically from the beginning of OTAs to now—just a few days into training camp. Which could mean we’ll be seeing him sooner than anticipated.

That said, I am perfectly fine with taking our time and letting Lance really grow into the starting quarterback role before handing him the keys. The benefits he’d get from a few extra games of starting experience are dwarfed by the potential drawbacks of throwing him into the fire a few games too early. And while we’re far too talented and well-run of a team to see a repeat of an Alex Smith/Josh Rosen scenario (knock on wood), tossing Lance into the deep-end right away could still hinder his growth, and—unlike Smith or Rosen or countless of other highly drafted quarterbacks heading to bad teams—Lance would be facing the expectations and pressures of being a point-man for a team with championship aspirations. Whereas someone like Burrow or Herbert can toss the ball around and learn through costly mistakes as a rookie because their teams are a ways away from contention, those same mistakes will be more disheartening and impactful for a team two years removed from a Super Bowl and in the toughest division in the NFL. Per usual, any argument that “the Niners didn’t trade away x number of picks to sit Lance” is the equivalent of saying “you didn’t buy those green bananas to not eat them all before they ripen” or “you didn’t open that retirement account to not withdraw half of it to purchase a PS5.” There are reasons to play Lance early, but the people giving that particular reason are likely the same ones who KNEW that Mac Jones was the pick at No. 3. Believe me, I am as excited to see Trey Lance as you are, but we need to be patient.

But regardless of when Lance gets his first NFL start, expect to see him in sub-packages right away. For a team that has struggled in the red zone during Shanahan’s tenure, adding a 6-4 225-pound battering ram at the quarterback position will certainly make for some interesting option and run-pass looks when the field gets tight. And those same looks could be shown between the 20’s as well. While a tightened field means that a running quarterback can even the blocking up front, a 3rd-and-inches from midfield puts defenses in an entirely different predicament. Do you shift down and commit to the run—which we’ll likely be showing both in personnel and formation—or do you play it safe to not get burned over the top, which in turn makes the short-yardage conversion easier?

We’ll get more into the specifics of what the Niners could do with Lance when he actually starts getting in-game snaps. But know this. The first time he lines up in the gun with Deebo and Kittle in the backfield, it’s gonna be six-to-midnight in a hurry.

Round 2, Pick 48: OG, Aaron Banks, Notre Dame

First with the addition of Alex Mack, then the drafting of Aaron Banks, the Niners have spent a lot of resources cleaning up the interior line issues that have plagued us for the greater part of a year and change. In Banks, the Niners have a massive (6-5 338-pound) mauling-type guard with great strength, a bay area kid coming home (El Cerrito), and a dude who—as mentioned above—McGlinchey and ND’s former OL coach vouched highly for. But many have questioned both the value of the pick—he was largely considered a third-rounder—and his fit within the Niners’ stretch-heavy scheme. Here’s what I’d say about that.

The Niners traded down five spots before taking Banks. I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that they—knowing Banks’ perceived value—were trying to move down again before taking him and—unable to find any suitors—pulled the trigger on the guy they had highest on their board. Much of the criticism about Banks is that he doesn’t move that well in space and lunges a bit in his blocking, leading to questions of whether or not he’s an immediate starter on the interior. Adam Peters has gone on record vouching for Banks’ quickness, saying that Banks—at a svelte 325 pounds—moved incredibly well for his size at his Pro Day. That weight loss and athletic potential, combined with the fact that the All-American guard allowed just two sacks and nineteen career pressures despite starting two-and-a-half years straight, made the Niners confident in picking Banks both for his polish—even if he does need hand work—and his upside.

As for fit, if his greater quickness at a still-humongous 325 pounds is any indicator, the transition to the Niners’ scheme won’t be as dramatic as some would believe. It’s also worth noting that it’s our tackles—who are regularly out of the box making difficult reach blocks—that truly NEED to be plus athletes in order to succeed in this scheme. While our guards have to be able to move and to get up to the second level, I think the Niners actually prefer a bit more heft on the interior. Teams have been overcommitting like crazy to stop our stretch running game, which opens the door for the gap runs that can punish them inside, and we—as stated above—are still looking for better short-yardage and red zone performance. Some extra pounds may help both those causes. Ultimately, Banks’ scouting report—a big, super strong dude with great durability and some questions about his ability in space—greatly mirrors that of Laken Tomlinson. And the Niners would be more than happy to shore up our interior with another Tomlinson-type.

I like Daniel Brunskill, but I feel like the Niners see him as either the all-important sixth man swing along the offensive line or a future center who can learn under Mack. Brunskill after all is a converted tight end, who—up until about a year ago—was listed as 252 pounds(!) on the NFL’s official site. While he’s played quality snaps at both center and guard, he may physically be better suited for the point position. If Banks wins the starting right guard position outright in training camp, that’s a good sign both for him and the overall composition of our offensive line.

Round 3, Pick 88: RB, Trey Sermon, Ohio State/Oklahoma

Consider me surprised that the Niners traded up into the third round to take a running back when we already have Mostert, Wilson, and Gallman under contract with JaMycal Hasty waiting in the wings. But that’s a testament to how highly the team thinks of Sermon. And since the selection comes with the blessing of Bobby Turner, that’s good enough for me.

Turner is probably the least appreciated contributor to the Niners staff. As the running backs coach under Kyle and Mike Shanahan since 1995(!), he’s unearthed gems like Breida, Mostert, Wilson, Alfred Morris (6th), Olandis Gary (4th round), Mike Anderson (6th round), and Hall-of-Famer Terrell Davis (6th round). He is the best running back coach on the planet. So we should probably trust his judgment.

Sermon also fits our scheme like a glove. While his deep speed isn’t incredible, he’s got great burst through the hole (with an impressive 10-yard split time on his 40), excellent cutback vision, and tremendous balance. He runs hard but has the ability to make guys miss in space, and catches the ball well out of the backfield.

Sermon DESTROYED this post-season, running for a Big Ten Championship Game-record 331 yards against Northwestern in a game where the Buckeyes passing attack needed much bailing out, then put up another 193 against Clemson.

But a dislocation of his SC shoulder joint on the first play of the national champ game caused him to miss that contest, and unfortunately, injuries are a red flag. He had a cracked L5 vertebrae in high school—causing him to miss his junior year— and tore the LCL in his left knee—causing him to miss the end of his collegiate junior year. With only five games missed in college (plus the majority of the NC) and 45 games played in, perhaps he’s not actually that injury-prone. But given our luck in recent years… it’s always worth mentioning.

Shanahan wants AT LEAST three healthy running backs at all times so that he can rotate bodies and keep people fresh. Many people critiqued that strategy when Mostert exploded at the end of 2019, then immediately walked back said criticism when all of our running backs were continually injured a year later. With Jeff Wilson already down and likely to miss some time, stockpiling running backs looks smarter by the day.

Mostert should continue to start, but Sermon will be among the three backs in that rotation, and—based on where he was selected—the Niners likely expect him to have a more featured role in years to follow. After all, he’ll be the only running back on roster locked up into 2022.

It’s also worth noting that Peters gushed about Sermon’s character, in particular his ability to deal with adversity while not letting it effect his outlook on life. This is likely due in large part to Sermon’s impressive mother, who lost two brothers—one shot to death—both her parents—within two weeks of each other—and her first two children—the youngest murdered by a former boyfriend who is now serving a life sentence in prison before Trey and his sister were born. Needless to say, no one expects Sermon to complain about sharing the load in the backfield.

Round 3, Pick 102: CB, Ambry Thomas, Michigan

*No, that is not Emmanuel Moseley. E-Man switched to #4 with the new jersey rules… and then Jimmie Ward switched to #1… and then Thomas switched to #20 [NBC Sports]*

I’ll admit I was worried when three straight cornerbacks—two of which I was highly interested in—went directly before the Niners picked at the bottom of the third, but I think they got a good one in Ambry Thomas. There are a number of draft experts who graded Thomas lower than a third rounder, but—as someone who (often sadly) watches every Michigan game—I can confidently say that I felt Thomas was undervalued on most draft boards.

He’s long, athletic, and tenacious with experience both in Don Brown’s man-press scheme and a handful of zones that the Wolverines had to throw into the mix to offset some personnel issues in 2019. But since Ambry was only a full-time starter for one year and sat out the 2020 season—for medical reasons that we’ll get to in a second—people kind of forgot about him. If anyone watched a Michigan game last year, rest assured that fans of Michigan missed him dearly. So did the coaches, as they gushed about Thomas’ competitive spirit and tenacity in their talks with the Niners leading up to the draft.

As a testament to his work ethic, Thomas—who was diagnosed with colitis in the summer before the 2019 season—lost 35 pounds while hospitalized for a month, missed all of fall camp, and was told he should medically redshirt… then wound up not missing a single start en route to a highly successful junior year.

It’s interesting because Syracuse’s Ifeatu Melifonwu—who went a single pick before Thomas and combines elite movement skills alongside a 6-2 205-pound frame—is basically the physical prototype of an NFL corner. Yet he dropped to the third round based on some questions about instincts, anticipation, and consistency. In many ways, he was a more polished Ahkello Witherspoon. While it’s impossible to know if the Niners had him higher on their board than Thomas, it’s easy to wonder if their focus on toughness and physicality over raw physical tools is in part because things never fully materialized with Spoon.

To be clear, Thomas is no slouch athletically. He returned kicks at Michigan and even played a little offense when he was further down the depth chart at cornerback. He’s got good top speed, quick feet, and very good hands, but tends to get a bit grabby at times. And while physical and willing, it’s unclear if he can really add any more mass onto his rather slender frame. He’s definitely a guy who needs more in-game experience, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get some snaps as a rookie. In terms of long-term projection, this is definitely a guy who can become a fixture outside. Perhaps as soon as 2022.

Round 5, Pick 155: OL, Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan

A three-year starter at left tackle, Moore’s lack of ideal length and power initially had him sliding inside to guard with the Niners. But after Justin Skule went down with a torn ACL in OTAs, Moore has been running with the second team at tackle. While it’s a bummer for Skule, I don’t mind Moore getting a shot outside first. A popular prospect in scouting circles, the experts are near-unanimous that the Niners got both a steal in the fifth round and a dude whose quickness, movement skills, and second-level climbing ability make for an outstanding schematic fit. To me, he seems like the perfect swing tackle and hopefully getting early snaps outside will help him transition to such a role.

However, considering Moore was drafted initially to play inside, his selection brings up a lot of questions about our two-deep on the offensive line. Was Skule, before his injury, on his way out anyway after taking a big step back from his mostly-solid substitute cameos in 2019? Is it getting late early for Colton McKivitz, who looked totally overwhelmed during his rookie year? Or will a more normal off-season help him in year two? Will Shon Coleman ever play a snap for us? Still plenty of questions along our offensive line. Hopefully, they’ll be answered by the time the regular season rolls around.

Round 5, Pick 172: CB, Deommodore Lenoir, Oregon

A scrappy corner out of Oregon who started three straight seasons in what was—before COVID opt-outs—perhaps the most talented secondary in the country, Lenoir is a tad undersized and lacks the twitch to really make up for it, but he’s a physical and intelligent DB who plays under control. As evidenced by a rookie camp clip that quickly made the rounds…

Somebody call the police because that was AGGRAVATED ASSAULT https://t.co/aFr1KSCP4o
— COACH PRIME (@DeionSanders) May 15, 2021

…and possibly got the Niners in trouble for their OTAs having “contact.”

Lenoir’s basically the Niners’ answer for the void in the slot vacated by DJ Reed—a player who he greatly resembles—but the Niners see Lenoir with a bit more inside/outside potential (although Reed currently starts outside for the Seahawks so…). Similar to Reed, expect him to get shots at subpackage work on the inside and for him to work his way up from there.

Round 5, Pick 180: S, Talanoa Hufanga, USC

The reigning Pac-12 defensive player of the year and AP first-team All-American, Hufanga seems like an absolute steal where we got him. Super instinctual and physical with great intelligence (he was one of two Niners’ draftees—the other Trey Lance—who got the coveted Golden Helmet designation during the draft process), Hufanga slipped because he ran an atrocious forty time (4.63) and has serious medical questions about his shoulders. With TWO season-ending right collarbone surgeries—the second of which led to a metal plate—and a dislocated shoulder that wound up requiring surgery after his sophomore year, the medicals could have taken him off the boards of some teams.

That said, this is the fifth round. You take risks somewhere, and Hufanga could well exceed his draft slot if he can stay healthy. People question his coverage ability due to his lack of elite speed and ask if he can play deep middle or even deep half. Totally fair. But his tape is faster than his timed speed and he doesn’t HAVE to play deep coverage in order to see the field with the Niners. In fact, I’d guess Hufanga’s first snaps (other than special teams, where he should immediately be a difference-maker) will be in a similar role as what Marcell Harris was doing for us by the end of last year. A matchup-specific subpackage outside linebacker who can cover better than most while being physical enough not to get overwhelmed in the box. If Hufanga tops out as Marcell Harris, we’ll easily take that for the next four years on a fifth-rounder deal. But he at least has the potential to carve out a bigger role, and that’s great value in the fifth.

Round 6, Pick 194: Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana-Lafayette

Despite eyeing linebackers in this round, the Niners ended up pulling the trigger on Mitchell for the same reason they did on Moore and Banks and Sermon—he just fit their value chart. Mitchell is a speedy guy (4.38 forty) with a one cut running style who ran plenty of outside zone in college. You don’t see a lot of dynamic moves or creativity in his running style, but he’s fast, usually hits the right hole, and runs harder than his size would indicate. That’s certainly enough to have some success in our scheme.

While the injury to Wilson will likely push some difficult roster decisions to a later date, the battle for the fourth running back spot between Wayne Ellington, JaMychal Hasty, and Mitchell will be one to keep an eye on in training camp.

Next Up? Guys with pictures that were NOT taken from the rookie minicamp.

Go Niners 🏈👍

2021 Team Preview: The Rookies

2021 Preview: Offense

Shit’s About To Go Down