Preview: Wk5 vs. Dolphins

This man went to Harvard

Opponent: Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/11
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Despite their laughable start to last season—which included an 0-7 start and getting out scored 16-133 in their first three games—the Miami Dolphins rebounded quite well down the stretch. After first-year head coach Brian Flores successfully installed his system and got players to buy in, the Dolphins—despite being woefully out-talented on all fronts—finished 3-2 in their last five games, including wins over the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

Loaded with draft picks and flush with cap space, the Dolphins committed to a speedy turnaround this off-season, drafting 11 players (five in the first 56 picks) and spending a whopping $237 million in free agency. I’m bull-ish on this team in the long-term. Presently, they’re not a powerhouse but they’re far from a pushover. They just hung in tight with the Seahawks until deep into the fourth quarter, have played tough in each week of a difficult opening schedule, and are a must-win contest if we want to stay in playoff contention.

INJURY REPORT

Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) were all back at practice this week, although each of them were limited. Seems like there’s a chance that all four play. I’d guess Mostert is the least likely, but don’t set your fantasy rosters based on that… at cornerback, Dontae Johnson (groin) sat out practice while Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) remains in the protocol… hopefully he’s alright… K’Waun Williams (knee) was just put on short-term IR, and Richard Sherman (calf) is eligible to return to practice this week but Shanahan has said he likely won’t be back until the Rams game at the earliest. A potential bright spot is that long-hyped-by-me practice squadder Tim Harris is off IR. If there’s a silver lining to a potentially depleted cornerback corps, it’s that maybe we can finally get a quick glimpse of Harris.

OFFENSE

Last year’s Dolphins ranked 28th in offensive DVOA, 24th in passing, and dead-last in rushing. Like every other AFC East offense, they sucked. In an attempt to rectify that, the Fins made wholesale changes on the offensive end.

The Dolphins OL allowed a league-worst 58 sacks last year; their adjusted line yardage was—by a gigantic margin—also worst in the league (the difference between their mark and second-to-last was greater than the difference between the second-to-last and 12th-ranked lines). In the off-season they reloaded the line with four new starters, poaching New England’s long-time backup and 2019 starting center Ted Karras, swooping guard Ereck Flowers from the Racial Slurs, and starting rookies at guard and tackle. Unsurprisingly, it’s not a lights out group, but—at least in the passing game—they’re able to hide things schematically.

Chad O’Shea, long-time Patriots wide receiver coach, is out after a single season as the Dolphins’ OC—replaced by Chan Gailey, former OC of the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills (for some reason all AFC East teams can only hire other AFC East coaches). While Gailey is the Ryan Fitzpatrick whisperer—having coached him to success in both New York and Buffalo—he was likely brought on more because the offenses he used to run share similarities with the NFL’s current trends—namely they use lots of 3- and 4-receiver sets and RPOs, which future signal caller Tua Tagovailoa was the GOAT at in college. The hope is that Gailey can bring out more Fitzmagic than Fitztragic and establish a foundation for Tua’s eventual ascension. So far this season, Fitzpatrick hasn’t scratched Fitzmagic levels, but he’s kept them in ball games with quick, high-percentage throws.

At the skill positions, this is a team with a lot of size that’s lacking in underneath separation. Fitzpatrick will be throwing to two jumbo receivers on the outside in Preston Williams (6-4, 210 lbs.) and DeVante Parker (6-3, 216 lbs.). Williams was a nice surprise as a rookie last year while the former first-rounder Parker—after years of hype, injuries, and failed expectations—finally broke out in his fifth year as a pro with 1,202 yards and 9 scores on a healthy 16.7 yards per catch. Filling out the rest of the 11 and 10 personnel packages are Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford—your standard quick underneath guys that every team seems to have an abundance of but don’t really move the needle one way or another. At tight end, Mike Gesicki is another giant target for Fitzpatrick, and one who has played well this season, but he’s yet to get involved in the offense on a consistent basis. The Dolphins didn’t add any wideouts in free agency or the draft, their only acquisition being a trade for third-rounder Lynn Bowden who is talented, raw, potentially troublesome (hence why he was traded), and certainly not ready to see the field against us beyond some potential wildcatt-y stuff due to our issues guarding the zone read. Speaking of zone read, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually much more mobile than you probably thought. He averages 5+ carries per game, has already rushed for 115 yards and two scores on the ground, and will absolutely be a pain in the ass both in designed runs and off-script ones.

The Dolphins want to spread the field, throw quick game, pass-to-run, and rely on their quarterback’s feet to convert some third downs. That is the blueprint for annoyance against our zone-heavy, dual-threat susceptible defense, and could be a game flow nightmare if we’re not putting them behind the sticks (for example, they had a 17-play, 73-yard drive that took 7:59 off the clock and ended with a field goal against the Seahawks). However, they lack the talent up front or the explosive potential to threaten outside of their dink-and-dunk comfort zone, so if we can generate pressure on a hit-or-miss offensive line and contest balls at the catch point against their jumbo pass catchers, we should generate enough third-and-longs to make things difficult on a team that relies almost entirely on long, plodding drives.

So far this season, Fitzpatrick has been exactly what the Dolphins need him to be, a bridge to delay the deployment of Tua. But when he can’t read the defense confidently and get the ball out quick, his middling arm talent shows, he can start to force things, and we increase the chances of summoning Fitztragic, his interception-prone and greatly preferred alter ego.

DEFENSE

Defense is Flores’ specialty, but that hasn’t translated to Miami yet. A long-term assistant for the New England Patriots, Shanalynch actually interviewed Flores for the Niners’ DC position while he was in New England (before he was calling their plays). Two years later—and fresh off a masterful neutering of the Rams’ offense in the Super Bowl—he was named head coach of the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have seen a massive overhaul on D as they try to fit an assortment of parts into a position-less hybrid 3-4 front that has the secondary talent to run man coverage on the backend. New additions Emmanuel Ogbah (Cleveland), Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), and Kyle Van Noy (New England) make up their edge/second-line tweener group while high draft picks like Raekwon Davis (2020 second-rounder) and Christian Wilkins (2019 first-rounder) are the core of their true down linemen. We’ve all seen what happens to Patriots players when they leave Foxborough, but... if anyone can get similar production from Van Noy it’s likely Flores. Lawson and Ogbah are intriguing pieces; both have shown flashes but neither ever developed into that pure edge rusher that so many teams are looking for. The Dolphins’ hope is that their skillsets will shine brighter in a more hybrid scheme but as of now they’ve yet to find their pass rush.

The Dolphins have pumped big money into their secondary, with their two starting boundary corners making a combined $31.5M/year in average annual salary. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones make up a formidable duo on the outside and testing them through the air isn’t likely to be a big part of our game plan. Howard has largely returned to form after a down 2019; Jones has missed the last few weeks with a groin injury but is expected to return against the Niners. If he doesn’t, rookie replacement Noah Igbinoghene has been burnt toast all year (ranking 111st out of 112 qualifying corners per PFF) and both he and slot corner Nik Needham should be targeted whenever possible.

Against man coverage and two top corners on the boundaries, the Niners will likely show some condensed sets, bunch formations, and motion to confuse assignments and move our outside playmakers away from Howard and Jones. Our tight ends and backs will have a chance to win one-on-one matchups in this one, both at their normal positions and split out wide in more pass-heavy looks as safeties and linebackers bounce out to guard them. The Dolphins are talented on the boundaries but their slot corners and linebackers have had issues in coverage. That’s not a great formula for stopping us. After what Kittle did to Philadelphia, I’d have to assume the Fins roll A LOT of extra coverage his way, attempting to use multiple looks, bracket coverages, and rotating defenders to try and offset the talent gap with variety. This will either fail, and he’ll still dominate, or work enough that other guys get plenty of advantageous looks. We can only hope the answer is both.

Until someone DOESN’T run it against us, I’d expect to see the wide-aligned edge defenders that we’ve faced in every matchup this year. Since those edge guys will often be stand-up linebackers they’ll likely try to disrupt our outside run game and disguise drops into the flats and short alley to take away potential backside slant/RPO situations. This would be a nice week to thin out those loaded boxes with the quick passing game, fix some issues on the OL, and throw down a trademark run game explosion so our offense has some momentum moving forward. By practically any statistic imaginable the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in football this year. They are certainly the worst defense we’ve faced and the worst rushing defense by a mile. Jumping out early would be huge against a Dolphins team that has made a habit of hanging on late with more talented squads. Mostert or no Mostert, Jimmy G or no Jimmy G, this is a matchup where our offense needs to impress.

After the Dolphins, we head into a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined 22-6 record, a run that includes matchups against half of the league’s remaining unbeaten teams. Even with the expanded playoffs, entering that two-month stretch with a 2-3 record would put us in a mighty big hole to climb out of. Let’s avoid that.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Eagles 25, 49ers 20

Upward pointing emoji [Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press]

The second Thomas Middleditch’s voice piped in to narrate a pump-up intro analogizing football with comparative startup valuations, you could tell the night was gonna be off.   

If the Giants game was a testament to how far we’ve come as an organization, the Eagles contest was a stark reminder of the issues we still need to iron out to take that next step towards becoming the football murder machine of the Patriots heyday. In short, don’t let the games that shouldn’t be close get close. 

Missed opportunities, botched nail-in-coffin moments, and letting overmatched teams hang around late enough that the outcome relies more on good bounces and bad breaks than game-planning and skill are all issues we’ve had in the past; each reared its ugly head on Sunday. Is it fair to criticize a lack of execution and killer instinct on a group piloted largely by backups, including at quarterback? Does it matter? The Eagles were just as banged up as we were. You play with who you’ve got, and we had the opportunities and game plan to win this game. We just needed to execute it.  

OFFENSE

Drive Killers: We averaged 6 yards/play and racked up a 417-to-267 yardage advantage but only put 20 points on the scoreboard. While turnovers were the obvious culprit, the overarching problem was a combination of missed and negative plays. Most of them—whether they were his fault or not—centered around our typically unflappable backup quarterback.

Excluding the four plays to end the first half, Nick Mullens quarterbacked the offense for nine offensive drives. This is how they panned out.

In every single drive that didn’t end in a touchdown, Mullens had some combination of a turnover, a missed throw, or a sack for big yardage. Our offense is explosive enough that it can still have success with some losses—we had a toss that was blown up for a five-yard loss in the first touchdown drive—but just like everyone else, we can’t survive with this many major negative plays.

Beat HARD: I’m not sure what it means moving forward when your third quarterback comes in and plays well in the wide-open, come-from-behind, late-game hurry-up offense Beathard piloted for the Niners’ final two drives. That sort of game flow is way different than anything he’d be seeing as a starter so his “fuck it, sling it” play over a small sample size doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the superior option moving forward. But Beathard deserves plenty of credit. He looked considerably better than his last sighting in 2018 and exponentially better than Mullens—who PFF graded as having the single worst performance by any QB in any game this season. Beathard’s only really demerit was the two-point conversion attempt, where a perfect play-call gave him the option to scramble or run, and—when the latter was way more open—he unsuccessfully attempted the former instead.

If Jimmy G can’t go next week against the Dolphins, who gets the nod? I dunno. But this stat is worth remembering: since 2017, the Niners are 22-7 with Garoppolo and 5-21 without him. Jimmy G, get well soon.

Kittle: As expected, our game plan leaned heavily on our non-receivers to exploit potential mismatches on the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties. Consider them exploited. 24 of our 32 completed passes and 252 of our 338 yards passing went to tight ends or running backs (Aiyuk’s acrobatic touchdown counted as a run), while Kittle—also as expected—feasted on his overmatched defenders all night to the tune of 15 grabs for 183 yards and a score. After missing the past two weeks with an MCL sprain, Kittle was a perfect 15-of-15 when targeted. That is unreal efficiency.

Where Art Thou Blocks?: Through four games, our offensive line ranks 31st in the NFL in adjusted line yards, 25th in % of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, 29th in sack percentage, and 20th in adjusted sack rate. On Sunday against the Eagles, we allowed 5 sacks and our QBs were hit 15 times (second-most in the Shanahan era), while Jerick McKinnon rushed for 54 yards—57 of them after contact. Needless to say we haven’t been killing it up front. So what’s going wrong?

I’m going to spend the majority of the rest of this piece talking about the run blocking, but in regards to pass blocking the most oversimplified answer to our struggles is individual play—particularly on our right side. Mike McGlinchey, who had pass protection issues as a rookie but seemed to improve late last year after returning from injury, was expected to turn the corner as a pass blocker this season. So far, the opposite has happened. He’s been a liability thus far, and when he whiffs it seems to stick out like a sore thumb. Against the Eagles he missed on two of our three last plays, which led to QB hits as we tried for the go-ahead score, while another major miss contributed to Mullens’ pick on the Eagles’ six-yard line.

#Eagles get the turnover with an interception off of Nick Mullens. #FlyEaglesFly #NFL pic.twitter.com/xAkGKw8mKS

— Justin Groc (@jgroc) October 5, 2020

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was firing out low in order to sell run on the play fake because otherwise I have no idea what happened. Regardless, protection takes precedence over the fake and when you lunge like this in pass pro, it’s a recipe for disaster. Also, FWIW…

That’s really obviously pass interference. Last time I checked you can’t two-hand block a receiver as he’s crossing the field while the ball’s in the air. And no, looking for the ball doesn’t count when you only look and don’t actually turn or disengage from the receiver. Luckily for the Eagles the throw was so ill-advised and destined to be a pick that the refs could see nothing else. Which… fair I guess.

Next to McGlinchey, Daniel Brunskill has regressed greatly since his super sub run in 2019. For a guy who made multiple starts at tackle last year, his issues in interior pass pro have been the most surprising. While the lack of snaps at guard during training camp surely didn’t help, he performed considerably better with NO expectation of playing last year so a massive regression was unexpected to say the least.

But what’s going on in the run game?

(1) Loaded boxes + Wide-ass Edges: It’s almost as if people don’t respect our passing game… teams thus far have been loading the box with 7- and 8-man fronts then keeping their defensive ends wide to prioritize beating hook blocks in our stretch game and containing our quarterbacks on bootleg passes.

Even if we were an option team, which we so clearly are not, we wouldn’t have the bodies to consistently block these fronts in the run game. This has forced us to motion wideouts into tighter splits—which I believe we did in both of these plays before snapping the ball—and has largely clouded up the bidness so there’s little room to run.

(2) Vertical instead of horizontal play on the edge: Defending the stretch running game usually means relying on your defensive front to maintain its gap integrity as it slides laterally with the offensive line. The edge defender tries to beat the hook block, keep his outside arm open, and prevent the bounce at all costs as he waits for backup from the inside.

Due to our speed in the backfield and edge rushing reputation, it seems like teams have started to get more aggressive at the point of attack—committing fully to jumping that edge and getting penetration. They’d rather not risk each of their defenders having to maintain gap integrity every play so they’re trying to get vertical push on the edge, which forces the running back to rush a cut upfield. Their alignment is so wide and their path so aggressive that even if the running back can bounce outside, their hope is that they’ve got enough penetration to tackle him or slow-up his bounce outside.

LOS is 35-yard line. Here the penetration on the edge has caused Jet to juke outside in order to bounce, which will slow up his momentum so much that he’ll get caught from behind for a gain of three (which is then called back on a hold).

This messes up the path and the timing of the running back—who’d rather slow-play his cut to set up the second-level defenders for bad angles and his linemen for easier blocks—and also allows a linebacker corps that wouldn’t necessarily have the speed to chase down our backs an easier point of attack. Now these linebackers can shoot to the hole inside the offensive tackle without worry that they’ll take too aggressive of an angle and get outflanked on a bounce.

Shanahan has used different looks to force the issue on the edge, including tosses and sweeps. While our sweep and reverse game has worked well, the tosses have been hit-or-miss.

LOS is 33-yard line. There’s so much penetration that McKinnon once again has to shuffle juke outside—killing his momentum and allowing inside defenders to catch him.

Tosses have their value (see: Jets game), but are a mix-up rather than a staple. You can’t live off toss sweeps unless you’re a Pop Warner coach with the most athletic eight year-old in the league. Plus, they present considerably less play action value. It’s nothing revolutionary that teams are doing here, but we need to find ways of punishing their full commitment to the outside run—both on the edges and inside—in order to keep them honest and open up our stretch running game again.

(3) Missing Mostert: I think last week against the Eagles was Jet’s best game as a runner. Earlier in the season he seemed a little rusty in his paths and was missing some cutback lanes. In this matchup, he really seemed to hit every hole and made a few gains out of nothing where he made a guy miss in a phone booth.

That being said, the speed and explosion of Jet versus the injured Raheem Mostert is pretty striking. How many times have you seen Mostert in the open field and not thought touchdown? None? And while it’s unfair to compare Jet to the fastest and biggest homerun running back in the NFL, there are a couple instances where Mostert’s absurd burst through the hole or even Coleman’s explosive physical short-yardage style could have been a nice mix-up for the defense.

Shanahan took a lot of flak for not starting Mostert all of last year, but his strategy of softening teams up with Coleman then springing Mostert on them for huge gains clearly worked. While Mostert should still get the start and the majority of the carries once he returns, presenting a variety of backs makes it harder for run defenses to get settled which in turn makes it easier for us to get bigger chunks of yardage.

(4) Missed second-level blocks: Realistically, this is what’s killed us the most. Shanahan’s playbook has answers to all of these issues and—as we’ll see shortly—he’s already deployed some of them. We just haven’t blocked them, particularly on the second-level. We’ve known for a while that we’re a more feast-or-famine type of run game. Our concepts are more complex to execute because their upside for big gains is higher. Due to that, a missed block here or there hurts us more than most teams’ running games. Even with loaded boxes and teams selling out to stop the outside running game, we’ve had a number of 3-to-5-yard runs that could have gone for big gains if not for a single missed block on the second level.

Some of this is on our wideouts. Trent Taylor has missed a few blocks. Brandon Aiyuk has, at times, committed too long to pulling the corner then is late peeling off to block the safety. But there’s plenty of blame to be put on the offensive line as well, in particular our interior, and especially Brunskill. For a converted tight end, he hasn’t looked great in space, either missing his blocks or not holding them long enough to allow our small runs to become big ones. Based on his play last year, I’m still bull-ish on his ability. The hope is that he can continue to improve with more snaps at guard. Helping him work through it may be our best/only option considering the alternative is throwing in Tom Compton or fifth-round rookie Colton McKivitz.

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS?

(1) Pass game improvements: Having any threat of a passing game will limit the eight man boxes, which in turn will clear out space for more second-level blocks and inside runs. For that to happen our pass protection needs to improve, but simply getting healthy again is equally as important. Through four games our starting quarterback has played less than a single half alongside our top target, only a handful of snaps with our promising rookie wideout, and zero snaps (during the season or in training camp) with last year’s leading receiver. A return to health will do wonders for opening up boxes.

(2) More gap schemes: This isn’t the first time teams have committed to taking away our outside running game, so we actually have a variety of gap schemes that we have run pretty well in the past as a counterattack. With teams committing so heavily to stopping stretch, it’s probably worth employing them more regularly to keep defenses honest.

Power runs could make defenses regret their wide alignments as they try to condense to combat kick out blocks, or open up big holes if we have the guard lead through and the play-side tackle lock on. Same with our same-side power/counter concepts. I’d also think that—while not gap runs—our split zone and bend-back split-stretch could be useful. Anything that creates that fast flow and overcommitment to stopping stretch before attacking inside should be on the table. Misdirection is key. Whether that’s in the backfield or while using…

(3) More fly/reverse action: Making teams commit to the outside threat with plenty of fly sweeps and reverse action should open up running holes underneath. Of all teams, we have the horses now—with Deebo and Aiyuk, and even Kittle—to actually hand off the ball and get non-running back rushing yards on a regular basis. And while that many wideout handoffs could seem gimmicky, it’s clearly something that Shanahan has no problem employing on a regular basis. Deebo averaged two carries per game over his last six games last year, including three for 53 yards in the Super Bowl. Think of our wideouts like halfbacks in a wing T offense. If teams are fast-flowing our backfield run game and/or not playing the edges on non-traditional handoffs, then we have the dudes to make them pay. Regularly.

To Sean McVay’s credit, one of the things he does really well is fully commit to something, even if it would traditionally seem to be a counter rather than a staple. In week 16 against us, the Rams did nothing but bootleg passes to free up Goff. Two weeks ago against the Eagles, the Rams receivers had six carries on sweeps and reverses because of Philadelphia’s fast flow. Now that Deebo is back to health and Aiyuk is breaking into the offense, we can punish teams who don’t play them honestly. And when teams believe we can handoff the ball—and are scared of the results when we do—we open up tons of space underneath.

Such as in this play to start the second half:

We’re lined up in our gun split-backs look with our strength to the top of the screen. Expecting a loaded box and man coverage across the board, the Niners have dialed up a play that will use the decoy of Kittle (who has already been torching them) to threaten the edges while attacking the soft interior.

Kittle motions across the field, taking his guy with him.

Here we’re faking both Kittle fly sweep/touch pass and Kittle play action dump-off left while running inside zone right. While the Eagles are in a 5-man front, their wide alignments to stop stretch make for easy angles for each of our offensive linemen on the inside-hitting zone play.

Juice will jab step right to feign a stretch/zone lead, before bending back and kicking out the end—or most dangerous / whoever doesn’t bite on the fake/comes first.

Seeing zone blocking and Juice stepping right initially, the Eagles linebackers creep inwards and upwards, expecting to fill play-side against the zone run.

Meanwhile, the backside end looks to close down his wide alignment and play cutback…

The fly motion makes him hesitate once (maybe Kittle got the handoff?) then twice as he realizes that since they’re in man coverage and Kittle is going across the line of scrimmage, he needs to try and slow Kittle’s release to the flat. If not, Kittle could get an easy dump-off pass and a full head of steam against a single trailing cornerback.

The end stops and tries to reach out to grab Kittle but fails, while the trailing cornerback follows over top (he’s getting run out of the play), and the linebacker nearest Kittle starts to think the same thing as the defensive end: they’re getting out-flanked on a play action and they’re about to have to tackle Kittle in space. Thus, the linebacker gives up on the zone look and starts to widen outside.

Juice makes a game-time decision and figures the DE is still dangerous enough that he should kick him out instead of leading up to the linebacker. Ultimately, it may not have mattered either way, as the result is the following:

Both the defensive end and the linebacker widen to play Kittle, who is now all the way out near the numbers. Meanwhile, Jet hits the cutback lane on the inside zone and there is a gigantic hole up the middle of the defense.

In this frame, the defensive end is fully discombobulated and also getting kicked out, while the linebacker is running AWAY from the ballcarrier as he tries to hedge his bets on Kittle. No one within five yards is even LOOKING at the guy with the ball, much less in a position to stop him.

Here’s the view from the press box. What is the likelihood that Mostert—if healthy—would be blasting through that hole then eviscerating the angle of the deep safety for yet another 75-plus touchdown? High. Very High.

Instead, the linebacker recovers and gets McKinnon down before he can break into the open field.

pic.twitter.com/kuCo96YRoB

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

These kinds of plays, which thread in multiple layers of deception and misdirection to threaten outside while attacking inside, can be very effective against teams that commit to stopping the outside running game.

(4) Make blocks: Well, yeah.

If we block well, we can still get the edge on anyone. We have the skill and the diversity of run looks to do so. Here’s an example of a way that Shanahan maneuvers to take the edge from a team that’s trying to do nothing but stop that exact thing and how close we were—again—to breaking a big run.

Here we are against another seven- or eight-man box (depending on how you count #34). Deebo is going to motion across to the weak side, both bringing the defender he has in man coverage with him and causing the strong-side defensive end and linebacker to switch gap responsibilities.

This will be crucial to help Kittle’s block on the edge.

We’re running what is kind of like the zone variation of counter trey. Basically we’re faking inside zone left with our backfield and our offensive line, then using Kittle and Taylor to seal the right-side edge while Deebo loops around behind like a pulling guard to lead up on the cornerback.

On the snap, Mullens opens to the left as it sells the idea of an inside zone left and it threatens the potential for a sweep handoff to Deebo the other way. The line blocks just like they would with an inside zone, with Garland (#63) and Brunskill (#60) planning to work up to the second level.

Their blocks are made easier by the fact that the linebackers are—rightfully—expecting inside zone. Thus they’re flowing to the left side of the formation and creeping forward with hopes of meeting Jet in the hole. On the backside, you can see how the inside zone look away helps Kittle—as the defensive end tries to get inside and play the C gap—and Taylor—as the linebacker is sliding inside as well.

Remember, the goal of this play is to go OUTSIDE of Kittle and Taylor, so the flow of the defense helps set up better blocking angles.

As Garland and Brunskill work up to the second level, let’s look at the play-side edge blocking. Deebo is heading up to the cornerback while Kittle is riding the defensive end out wide, working to front him while preventing him from shooting across his face outside.

We talked earlier about missed blocks on the second level. Here’s the first of them on this play. In pink, you can see that Taylor took a path that was too flat and that allowed his man to beat him outside.

Taylor’s defender has now set the edge outside of Kittle, forcing the run inside. The defensive end slips off Kittle to the inside, which isn’t Kittle’s fault as Kittle was prioritizing sealing the edge in hopes of an outside run, but that’s far from a deal breaker because of how much space we’ve created inside by stringing out the defense.

With the flexibility of the stretch scheme and the successful inside fake, Jet has a giant hole to run through and Taylor, to his credit, is looking upfield to try and block someone else after missing his first attempt. However, this is where our second missed block—in pink—comes in. Brunskill hasn’t kept his defender inside, and the linebacker is now closing down space as McKinnon starts to cut up field.

The linebacker lunges for the tackle and drags down Jet for a short gain—snuffing out a play that could have been much more. If either Taylor OR Brunskill missed their block the play still would have worked—McKinnon would have outrun the linebacker while bouncing outside or cut upfield into an unoccupied hole—but since they BOTH missed their blocks, a big gain on the ground became an innocuous five-yard gain on the box score.

pic.twitter.com/nH7rSlSgqc

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

The plays are there, we just have to execute better.

The good news? We’ve put up 400+ on back-to-back defenses despite starting our backup quarterback, our third-string running back, and getting the equivalent of two games out of our top two receiving targets. Despite all that we’re still ranked in the top 10 in every major statistical offensive category. We’ll get healthy and get things sorted out. Also, young Brandon Aiyuk looks more athletic every day.

*chef's kiss* pic.twitter.com/zFLrItCbcm

— Stu Motown #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) October 5, 2020

So there’s that.

DEFENSE

Through four weeks the Niners have the second-lowest average depth of target in the NFL (6.0 yards) after finishing first (6.5 yards/target) in that figure last year. Part of that is the offenses they’ve faced, but give Robert Saleh the credit he deserves. With the Niners decimated by injuries along their front and back lines, the depth of this defense has shown through and Saleh has adjusted the team’s pressure techniques accordingly. While we were one of the least blitz-happy teams in the league last year, we’ve blitzed the 8th-most in 2020, yet we’ve still maintained top 5 marks in hurry, knock down, and pressure rates and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. Yes, tougher tests are to come, but accomplishing that down your top three defensive ends and top five cornerbacks is quite an achievement.

Option Runs: As expected, the Eagles showed plenty of option looks both from Wentz and second-round pick Jalen Hurts, and—just like last week—those runs were more successful than their handoffs in getting yardage and first downs. If you exclude that ill-advised reverse that got blown up for a 12-yard loss, the Eagles’ running backs carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards (2.9 ypc). Their quarterbacks carried the ball 10 times for 55 yards (5.5 ypc). 

A team that relies on multiple fronts, position-less front seven players, and tons of blitzing presents more confusing alignments and run fit responsibilities for on offense, which in turn can make running option plays more difficult. While a team like the Ravens or Cardinals that includes zone read as a foundational part of their offense will be prepped to run those plays against such a front, a team that deals more casually in zone read might avoid it all together in lieu of something that takes less practice time. Since we typically rely on a four-man front and rarely drop our DL into coverage it’s a little bit easier on standard downs to determine our gap responsibilities and read keys. That, and the fact that we’ve done so well against standard run plays this year, means any QB with some athleticism is likely to try it a few times per game against us. 

We’ve gone over the slate of dual-threat quarterbacks we’re about to face. While we’re not going to change our defensive philosophies to combat this one style of play, we need to get better at defending it or we’re going to get gashed later this year. 

Edge Speed: We lacked it. For the first time this year we really saw what losing Bosa and Ford does to our ability to corral quarterbacks inside the pocket. Even when Carson Wentz wasn’t hurting us with designed runs, he was getting outside the pocket on bootlegs and scrambles—turning potential incompletions or sacks into short yardage runs and completions down the sideline. While Dion Jordan showed his athleticism in bursts, having either Bosa or Ford really would have neutered the Eagles’ ability to get outside the pocket and thus limited their ability to do much of anything on offense.

Considering Ezekiel Ansah—just signed last week to help offset the loss of Bosa and Ford—tore his biceps in the first half and is getting put on (real) IR later this week, this is a problem that’s gonna get worse before it gets better. We’re certainly adding another defensive lineman at some point this week, but the pickens are slim indeed (shakes fist at the fact that Damontre Moore is now with the Seahawks). We’re pretty much down to super-old dudes (Clay Matthews, Cameron Wake) or super-young developmental dudes (Alex Barrett from the practice squad?). While the latter category may sound more exciting, a high potential dude who isn’t playing four weeks in is likely quite rough around the edges. If the Niners go the young route, perhaps they comb over the practice squads of defenses with strong, deep, and healthy fronts for someone who might be buried due to lack of need.

Well look who it is... I don’t wanna rag on the dude too much. Dontae Johnson’s deep on the depth chart for a reason, he’s only playing due to massive amounts of injuries, he himself had a groin tweak in this game but played through it cause we ran out of bodies, and I know the majority of my memories of him are from 2017 when we were terrible and everyone got burnt; thus I suffer from an innate and personal PTSD bias. But goddammit can we please get healthy soon? 

What’s that? K’Waun Williams was just put on short-term IR with a lower body injury? Well I guess I’ll just fuck myself then. Jamar Taylor—who Saleh brilliantly blitzed on his first snap of the game—will almost surely be added to the active roster to replace Williams. Witherspoon, Moseley, and Sherman should all be back soon (although there’s talk that Sherman and Mostert are more likely to return against the Rams). At full strength, there’s a chance Moseley could play in the nickel while Verrett plays outside? Neither really played there during camp but it seems pretty clear who our top three corners are with Williams out.

KYLE SHANAHAN’S “FUCK YOUR COUCH” PLAY OF THE WEEK

Somewhat fitting considering how this game turned out, but this week’s play ended up an incomplete pass. But mother of god was it open.

Let’s take a look.

This one’s more play-calling than play-structuring. It’s a simple concept, just dialed up at exactly the right time against exactly the right defense and (mostly) executed to perfection.

This is the second play of the game. Knowing Jim Schwartz would likely be aggressive on the outsides with our backup quarterback in and with the ball at our own 11-yard line, he went Cover 1 to load the box on a second-and-10. The Niners presented an I-Form look that implied inside handoff, then sent Bourne across the formation in motion. This made clear that the Eagles were indeed in man coverage and put him away from the single-side receiver to create as much space on the left side of the field as possible.

Shanahan’s dialed up a deep play action lead ISO fake that will become a max protect play action pass with two receivers on routes. This is the definition of a shot play. After the fake, Mullens will look inside-to-outside, first at the deep post and then at the wheel out of the backfield (in red).

Unless the deep safety bites so incredibly hard on play action that Aiyuk can get over top of him, this ball is going to Juice.

On the snap, the run fake works to perfection. All three linebackers and the deep safety rush forward thinking inside run, while Kittle and Bourne protect backside to ensure a blitzing man doesn’t get through.

Aiyuk—with a mandatory inside release in order to get the attention of the deep safety—absolutely roasts his cornerback off the line of scrimmage then quickly gains a step on him down the field. While we haven’t seen the rookie’s downfield ability yet, this is a good sign of things to come.

The free safety notices Aiyuk blazing open down the field and turns to help over top, while Juice fakes his lead block so well that the play-side linebacker slips out of his way in order to stagger into the hole. Both linebackers (#57 and #40) are stacked up on the line of scrimmage as Juice leaks down the sideline uncovered.

There is no one for miles.

Darius Slay (#24) starts to see it but he’s all the way across the field while both the play-side corner and free safety are busy with Aiyuk, who—to his credit—seems to have actually beat both of them despite the double team. If completed, this is a bare minimum of a forty yard gain. With that much space, it could go much longer.

By now Jim Schwartz, circled in blue, has seen it. Thus he has crouched down in the universal “I’m gonna shit myself and then pretend I tweaked something so I can sneak off to the locker room” squat. He won’t rise back up until the ball is safely over Juice’s head and incomplete.

KSFYCPOTW Week 4 pic.twitter.com/ptWfPN1e77

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) October 6, 2020

Hitting this shot could have opened the floodgates and turned this game into a much different affair. Alas, we’re now 2-2, nearing the meat of our schedule, and playing catch-up in the NFC West. We have the means to patch up our issues, but we need to do so quickly.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk4 vs. Eagles

Never a good sign when these guys are smiling this much [Lori M. Nichols]

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1, 3rd in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 10/4
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

When healthy, the Eagles are one of the top 5 most talented teams in the entire NFL. But, like us, “when healthy” has been a troublesome caveat over the past few years. After their 2017 run, the Eagles went all-in on the present, trying to win as many chips before the major cap spike in Carson Wentz’s contract hit. Well, Wentz’s cap figure nearly doubles in 2021 and even with contract restructures to both Alshon Jeffery and Lane Johnson, the Eagles are—as currently constructed—$65 million over next year’s estimated salary cap. All this to say, this is the oldest and—soon to be—most expensive roster in the league, and their window for winning is now.

They have yet to win a game this season.

INJURY REPORT

49ERS: George Kittle (knee) and Jet McKinnon (ribs) were full participants in practice this week. They should play on Sunday… the Niners also opened the practice window for Deebo Samuel (foot) to return from IR. They’ll evaluate him this week and decide if he’s healthy/prepared enough to play this weekend… Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and K’Waun Williams (hip) were limited participants as of Thursday. Witherspoon was a full participant on Wednesday so either had a minor setback or they’re trying not to push him, while Williams didn’t practice on Wednesday so at least he’s trending in the right direction… Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) have yet to practice this week. Of those four Moseley is the most likely to be back in time for Sunday (as he just needs to pass the concussion protocol)… Jordan Reed (knee), Mark Nzeocha (quad), and Dee Ford (neck/back) will be put on IR this week. Ford’s injury has no real timetable. It could be a few weeks or it could be much longer. Therein lies the issue with neck/back issues. Reed is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, meaning he should be available for the stretch run… Richard Sherman (calf) is out this week. He has at least one more week on IR before he’s eligible to return… Ronald Blair (ACL) and Jullian Taylor (ACL) remain on the PUP list. They won’t be eligible to return until week 7.

EAGLES: Considering the many injuries to the Eagles, I’ll include them in here as well. All-Pro guard Brandon Brooks was lost to an achilles injury in the preseason. He’s obviously out. So are first-round rookie Jalen Raegor (finger), starting DE Vinny Curry (hamstring), second-line tight end Dallas Goedert (lower body), starting LG Isaac Seumalo (knee), “starting” LT Andre Dillard (biceps)—although he was so bad last year a 38 year-old Jason Peters may still be a better player—and starting boundary corner Avonte Maddox—another potential addition by subtraction; before last Sunday I had a whole section prepared about how to target him as often as possible. Meanwhile DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are unlikely plays on Sunday, with fellow wideouts JJ Arcega-Whiteside (injury) and John Hightower (illness) missing practices this week as well. Hightower seems likely to play. Not sure about the rest.

ROSTER MOVES

Kyle Nelson is out as long-snapper. Shanahan said it was a tough cut personally but that Nelson had actually been trending down before last week and they had to make a move. Taking over long-snapping duties is Taybor Pepper, the 26 year-old former Packer and Dolphin whose name sounds like either an artisanal seasoning, a pop star from a foreign country, or an Eastern European bad guy from an 80’s movie… Daniel Helm was brought back to replenish our TE room; he was swooped up off the Bucs’ practice squad… Joe Walker is a likely promotion to the active roster after Nzeocha was placed on IR… CB Jamar Taylor, who played a bunch of snaps for us in the nickel during training camp, was added back to the practice squad. He’s likely insurance in case K’Waun Williams can’t go this week… OT Cody Conway and TE Charlie Taumoepeau are second- and first-year players, respectively, who were added to the practice squad.

OFFENSE

Head coach Doug Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple, originally getting the head job in Philadelphia in 2016 as a means of fully apologizing for the Chip Kelly era. Similar to Reid, Pederson wants to spread out and throw the ball. The Eagles are largely a shotgun-based team and run almost entirely 11 and 12 personnel, but otherwise have a very multiple approach to offense, in part because of their flexible personnel.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert make up the best tight end duo in the NFL and are a big reason the Eagles run so much 12 personnel. Both of them have the size, athleticism, and receiving chops to line up and make plays all over the field. Ertz is a bit more polished and sure-handed while Goedert is younger, speedier, and the better blocker. With Goedert available they ran WAY more 12 personnel than anyone else this season. Now that he’s out I’d expect more 11, but… they did sign 2019 fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler to replace him. For anyone who doesn’t remember Butler (likely everyone), he was a super intriguing deep-ball specialist out of Iowa State last year but missed his rookie year due to injury. He was cut from the Cardinals this off-season (red flag #1) and—despite his 6’5 225 pound frame—is a receiver not a tight end (red flag #2). Seeing as he was a raw and somewhat finesse-y receiver coming out of college, I assume he will not be asked to block at all. If he plays, I can’t imagine it will be major snaps.

At receiver is an abundance of speed. The Eagles brought DeSean Jackson back into the fold last year, but he played only one game and, as an undersized 33 year-old known for his speed, has had inconsistent availability this year. As an insurance policy and succession strategy for his ability to stretch the field, the Eagles drafted three(!) speedy wideouts in this year’s draft—the most exciting of which being first-rounder Jaelen Raegor—and even traded for Marquise Goodwin, although the former is hurt and the latter opted out due to the successful birth of his child (congrats Quise!). John Hightower will likely see major snaps. He’s tall, fast, and runs deep but—as a fifth round pick—does little else at this point. Greg Ward Jr., college fade merchant and likely NFL bust JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Alshon Jeffery—if healthy—will round out the majority of receiver snaps.

In the simplest of terms the Eagles offense wants to threaten vertically with their receivers, beating the defense over the top or pushing them back enough so that the wideouts can work intermediate break-off routes like digs and comebacks. Meanwhile, their tight ends work the middle of the field, either creating mismatches in man coverage or finding soft spots in zones that are spread out vertically due to the speed outside. On the ground, they have a rotating stable of backs, but the belief is second-year pro Miles Sanders will take over whatever their equivalent is of a “bell cow” role. Like the tight ends, the backs are heavily involved in the underneath passing game.

At quarterback is Carson Wentz, a 2017 MVP front-runner who has regressed since the Eagles’ Super Bowl run. While I didn’t expect a full-on cliff-dive as we’ve seen early this year, there were signs the past few seasons. The 2017 season saw Wentz—with a loaded roster that was entirely healthy—gain nationwide fame for making big plays off-script in clutch situations. His 11-2 starting record and insane third down numbers (9.5 YPA with a 14/3 TD-to-INT ratio) pointed to a transcendent player who simply needed to grow out of some young QB inconsistencies before he’d join the league’s elite. Two plus years later, that hasn’t been the case. Wentz’s third down magic has regressed—implying it was more statistical outlier from a young player who teams hadn’t scouted yet then a repeatable trait—and his consistency issues have shown no signs of stopping. Yes, he still has plus athleticism and elite arm talent. When he’s on he can buy time with his feet and throw darts down the sideline to create big gains all over the field. But while pulling a rabbit out of your hat when the chips are down is a great quality to have, it doesn’t mean much if you—as Wentz often does—struggle within the structure of an offense. Suspect accuracy, routine misses, and generating negative plays on first and second down by trying to make something out of nothing don’t get wiped out by the occasional good one on third-and-long. Early down success rate matters. Keeping your offense on time matters. Yardage counts just as much on first and second down as it does on third. Ultimately, a play that is called open will be open more often than one that requires scrambling and pinpoint back foot throws under pressure—regardless of how impressive those throws may look in a highlight. To Wentz’s credit, there are more issues on this offense than simply his play, and Doug Pederson certainly deserves his fair share of the blame for not finding a way to adapt the offense to fit Wentz’s strengths and get their franchise QB back on track.

This Eagles offense is loaded with talent and lacking in consistency, both schematically and in terms of performance. In the opening week they committed to the deep ball, totaling the highest yards per pass attempt in the league while jumping out to an early 17-0 over the Racial Slurs. But their offense fizzled down the stretch and a banged-up OL and commitment to the deep ball led to a whopping 8 sacks. The next week, despite returning top-flight tackle Lane Johnson and facing a much-less frightening Rams defensive front, the Eagles went heavy on the short passes. This protected Wentz—he wasn’t sacked on the day and was only hit twice—but the offense continued to sputter due to a series of missed completions underneath. Against the Bengals… well they had to come back on the last drive of the fourth quarter, aided by multiple penalties, in order to get the game to OT—a game which ended with a false start on a would-be game-winning 58-yard field goal and an ensuing game-tying punt.

So what should we expect from the Eagles offense? It’s truly hard to say—both because they’re so temperamental and because our pass rush is much less than it once was. The Eagles often struggle and grow impatient when they are forced to stay in the short-to-intermediate passing game for too long, and I get the feeling that neither Pederson nor Wentz see a dink-and-dunk approach as the path to righting their offensive woes. Given that, I’d guess they test our Sherman-less corners deep early—especially if Moseley can’t play. If they can threaten deep that could give them the cushion needed to open up the deep outs, digs, and stop routes that they run of their vertical stems. If they don’t have DeSean I’m not sure how well that deep threat will work, but they seem to require those vertical routes to get anything else going.

Up until this year, Wentz has played behind one of the best, if not the single best, offensive line in all of football. Just in 2019, the line featured—according to PFF—the league’s #1 center (out of 35), #4 and #6 tackles (out of 81), and the #1 and #19 guards (out of 83). That is absurd. Now, both of those guards are gone and their OL is almost as banged up as our DL is. All that said, this is still a team that gets good push up the middle and can run the ball, both with Sanders and Wentz on designed keepers and scrambles. Considering our issues defending dual-threat QBs and their injuries out wide, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a bit more designed runs and potentially some of second-round run-threat Jalen Hurts in zone read/wildcat-y packages. If they can get consistent yardage on the ground, that can open up their play action, which can help their backup receivers get open and can free up some attention from Ertz—Wentz’s favorite target.

The Eagles want to shorten this game so stopping the running game, regardless of who’s carrying the ball, will be key in this one. If we can keep them from getting easy yards on the ground then—assuming Moseley plays—we should have the horses in the secondary to shut down the deep ball against their depleted receiving corps. If that’s the case, we put the Eagles in the position where they have to methodically move down the field in the short-to-intermediate game and there’s only so much that hooks to Zach Ertz and frantic passes to running backs in the flats can get them. That is not the game flow that the Eagles want and would likely keep Pederson/Wentz from getting on the same page.

DEFENSE

Jim Schwartz, of handshake with Harbaugh fame, may look like he’s always mid-fart and that he’s adamant that you smell it afterwards, but he coaches up a good defense. And despite some embarrassing moments against the Rams, Schwartz—even with his haircut and facial hair—typically finds a way to settle his players into a good-or-better unit by season’s end. Despite the Eagles’ play as a team this year, their defense has been mostly strong. While it’s still early in the season, the Eagles have the 9th-best Defensive DVOA, largely on the back of their ability to win up front.

The Eagles are primarily a four-man front, with a deep and talented DL that features—when healthy—the best interior duo in the league in Fletcher Cox and Pittsburgh-import Javon Hargrave (plus starter-quality sub Malik Jackson). On the edges are the perennially underrated Brandon Graham (a top 20 PFF score in each of the last eight seasons; a top 10 finish in six of them) and a deep rotation of youngsters that includes 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. Even without Vinny Curry this is an elite unit, the unquestioned strength of their defense, and one of the best pass-rushing groups in the NFL. Despite Cox missing time, they’re third in the league in sacks and fresh off an 8-sack performance of Joe Burrow last week. Blocking them will be the #1 indicator to our offensive success and an excellent test for an offensive line that—particularly on the interior—hasn’t really excelled at either pass or run blocking this year.

After some struggles last year, the Eagles secondary has been revamped for 2020. Out goes long-time captain Malcolm Jenkins—cornerback Jalen Mills replaces him at safety. Darius Slay came over from the Lions via trade and received a hefty contract extension; he had a down year in 2019 but was one of the better corners and ballhawks before then. He’s their clear No.1. Bradley Nickell Robey-Coleman, best known for cheating and getting away with it in the 2018 NFC Championship, comes in at the nickel. Last year, issues in the secondary caused Schwartz to mix in a ton of different zone coverages. To his credit, the schematic shift worked and the Eagles led the league in pass breakups. This year Schwartz hopes things can go a bit more smoothly. So far, they haven’t.

Like many analytics teams across the NFL, the Eagles devalue the importance of linebackers. They’d prefer to spend their money along the DL and the secondary, believing that they can find serviceable linebackers at a discount who will perform well enough within their scheme. Due to that, their starting lineup is green, and—so far this season—it’s shown in their play on the field.

Everything we do offensively should be aimed at mitigating the strength of their DL while attacking their back seven—which has had its issues this year. Our quick game should be viable. Breaking out our slip screens would be a good way to get guys like Kittle and our backs in space while slowing up the Eagles’ pass rush. As would all manner of bootlegs—especially those with leak outs and cross-action behind the line of scrimmage—as long as Mullens is playing or Jimmy G is healthy enough to run. Overall, a healthy Kittle will be a major matchup problem for a team with back seven questions.

Play action should be effective in this one as the Eagles’ DBs have been caught peeking more than a few times on play fakes and the linebackers don’t have tremendous redirect speed. The back seven has struggled with both misdirection and assignment confusion—especially from their cornerbacks. That means condensed and bunch sets and pre-snap motion could be used to confuse man coverage assignments and spring open receivers. Closed sets with multiple tight ends would also give the added benefit of forcing their corners to tackle in the running game while creating confusion—especially in the red zone—with pass coverage assignments. Setting up a DB as an edge defender in a run-pass bind on a play action could work doubly well. Using formations and motion to setup isolation slants would be a nice way to get Aiyuk and (hopefully) a freshly returned Deebo matched up one-on-one on whoever is replacing the injured Avonte Maddox—who struggled mightily to start the year. Perhaps his injury will allow for a better player to step into his place. Or maybe he’s the best they had and his replacement will be even worse. We can only hope for the latter.

While their DL is good enough to penetrate and stop a lateral run for a loss at any moment and their linebackers will be selling hard play-side to prevent us from edging them in the run game, misdirection could be key if we can block it up front. Fly and orbit motions—along with any kind of reverses (Deebo plz?)— could help slow up run fits, provide play action leak outs, and—when the ball is actually given the other way—spring big gains against run action. We could also see a healthy dose of our split-flow backfield action, as cutback lanes could open up nicely given fast-flow from the linebackers and suspect tackling from the DBs. Similar to the cutback, RPOs could be in play as well—anything to punish the fast flow that they’ll likely need to compensate for our speed advantage.

I keep expecting the Eagles to turn things around, if not permanently than at least for a mid-season push. While they’re nowhere near the 2017 Super Bowl champ team, this is still a talent-laden roster that has been to the playoffs each of the past three years (twice winning their division). But perhaps they’re just too old and dysfunctional, or that those post-2017 playoff trips have been a bit of a mirage, a product of some good bounces and a weak NFC East. After all, including playoffs, the Eagles have gone 19-19-1 since that Super Bowl run and eight of those wins were against the Giants and Racial Slurs.

I see this game much like the Monday Night game against the Browns last year—a prove-it game and potential turning point for a preseason darling (remember, the Eagles were largely favored in this game before the season started). If the Eagles can scrape together a win it would be a turning point for both squads. But if they show up like the Browns did last year and get absolutely embarrassed on national television… this could mark the twilight of an era that likely ends in a major off-season blowup.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 36, Giants 9

#mood [Full Press Coverage]

This was a statement win. 

The Giants aren’t a great team and this wasn’t the prettiest contest and a win on Sunday didn’t guarantee that our injury issues would fix themselves or that we’re destined for another magical run, but winning the way that we did given the circumstances is a statement of a different kind: that 2019 wasn’t a one-off.

Winning this year is just as much about chasing a Super Bowl as it is about cementing ourselves as a perennial contender. The best franchises don’t let strings of injuries—no matter how extensive, unlucky, or even comical in circumstance—knock them from their contender status. A down year is a trip to the playoffs. An up year is a championship run. That’s not to say we’re already there as franchise—there’s no way of obtaining that status before we see how this season shakes out—but it is to say that this was a good sign. So while we beat up on yet another lowly New York squad in a largely boring contest, this game was a statement that—despite being down 11 starters by the second quarter (three of them All-Pros)—we are still deep enough, talented enough, and well-coached enough to blow out the competition.

It was a statement of resilience.

OFFENSE

The Niners chipped through the first half—showing signs of breaking away but never shutting the door on the Giants—until a Shanahan defensive-download at halftime led to this stat line in the second half:

Three drives
27 plays
197 yards
Three touchdowns

This was after Jordan Reed, Mullens’ favorite early target and a major part of the game plan, went out with injury in the first half. The Niners didn’t punt for the first time since 1993, nearly doubled the Giants’ time of possession, and totaled 420 (the devil’s lettuce) yards of total offense while down our number one quarterback, wide receiver, two tight ends, and two running backs. That’s damn impressive, regardless of competition.

Young Money Mullens: Despite a bit of a slow start and some issues getting the calls in and out of the huddle on time, Mullens really got into rhythm in the second half. He was in full command of the offense, did a great job of finding passing lanes, pushed the ball with zip into tight windows, and showed nice touch when lofting passes over defenders. Ten Niners caught balls in this one, seven amassing 20+ yards receiving, as Mullens totaled a line of 25-of-36 for 343 yards and 1 TD. It was both a testament to Mullens’ willingness to throw to whoever is open and Shanahan’s creative deployment of talent regardless of who’s available. By midway through the third Mullens looked incredibly comfortable out there, which is good considering he may have a couple more starts in the coming weeks.

Run Game Woes: Despite paltry rushing stats—our backs combined for only 62 yards on 28 carries at 2.2 ypc—the addition of Kittle on the edge and Mostert’s shot-out-of-cannon burst through the LOS would have made for a much better performance on the ground. McKinnon has been great in the passing game and filled in admirably on the ground, but he doesn’t have the juice of either Mostert or Coleman through the hole and without our star tight end or tailback on the field, the Giants showed a lot of this front in an effort to take away our edges.

Coaches film isn’t up yet so I’m not totally confident in the gap responsibilities here, but the general idea was simple. Load up the line of scrimmage to create one-on-one blocks, extend a stand-up edge defender super wide so that he can’t get hooked, and let your second-level defenders fly unblocked to the hole instead of having to read/react/guess as to which hole the ballcarrier was hitting. You’re basically aiming to take away the double team advantages of zone/stretch while also forcing the running back to a specific hole, rather than letting him choose.

In response to the near-impossible to hook edges, we prodded the interior of the Giants front but to little avail. The two-gappers along the Giants’ interior really held their ground and—while the backs who were healthy enough to play performed admirably—they had little room to run in what was a pretty subpar performance from our interior line. There was some yardage left on the field in terms of missed cutback lanes, although—of all people—rookie JaMycal Hasty started hitting those bend backs once he got in the game. The UDFA showed nice burst and fluid movement in the run and pass game. While improved backfield health will hopefully relegate him to the practice squad moving forward (where we will surely lock him up each week so he doesn’t get poached), Hasty looks like an intriguing rotational weapon in 2021 and beyond. 

YAC Gods Incoming Boiiiiiii: In order to punish the Giants for their employment of run-stopping fronts with six- and seven-defenders on the LOS, the Niners turned to the rookie Brandon Aiyuk. After a full week of practice, he was ready to deliver—including on the first play of the second half.

While not the exact same front as earlier (the Giants are in a two-high safety look here), it uses the same basic principles. Clog gaps on the LOS then fast flow to the point of attack. So this was Shanahan’s counter.

In this set, Dwelley motions across the formation, showing a potential lead stretch look that forces the two linebackers to shift to the strong side of the formation so as not to get outflanked. Most importantly, this isolates Aiyuk on the cornerback at the top of the screen.

The Niners have called a pretty simple run pass option (RPO) here. That means the play call is a RUN with a PASS tag to punish defenses from overcommitting to the run. Unlike a play action, this play can go either way, with the quarterback determining hand-off or pass AFTER the snap based on a lightning-quick read of a read defender. If the defender plays pass, the ball is handed off. If he plays run, the ball is thrown.

In this case, the linebackers are so far from the play they won’t be able to take away the slant, so the read key is the stand-up edge defender, highlighted in red. Due to alignment, Mullens pretty much knows pre-snap that he’s gonna be able to hit Aiyuk on the slant. Since the defender is lined up on the LOS he’d have to drop directly backwards into the slant’s path, and in that unlikely case Aiyuk would have likely just worked around him anyways. Herein lies the weakness with playing this kind of defensive front against us. You’ve committed to taking away every gap at the LOS but that takes you out of position to stop passes to the short alley—an area that the Niners’ offense excels at attacking.

The edge defender and Trent Williams engage, leaving a giant passing lane for Mullens to fit the ball in to Aiyuk, who is able to work his way upfield for an easy first down.

Aiyuk RPO pic.twitter.com/Zpk3pXPIgM

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 28, 2020

Just three plays later the Niners would return to a very similar formation, and the Giants—expecting another isolation slant RPO—had a call in place to theoretically take away that very concept. Unfortunately for them, Shanahan made his play call expecting that very adjustment and was (per usual) one step ahead.

This time we’ve split out Juice into the slot so that the Giants—who are showing a one-high look to defend the run and keep numbers on the LOS—have to decide whether to give support to their backside cornerback or lighten up the box against the run. Here they choose to keep their numbers against the run.

Just like before, Dwelley motions across, making the linebackers bump towards the trips side of the formation.

Unlike the last RPO, this is a straight play action pass—the offensive line will show stretch blocking horizontally but will NOT cross the LOS. They are in pass protection. On the backside, Aiyuk will be running a ten-yard dig instead of the three-step slant. That’s because (A) the Niners want to attack further down the field since they’re employing a six-man protection play action concept, (B) they are correctly expecting the Giants to present a single-high safety instead of a two-high look so as to keep numbers against the run, and (C) Shanahan has rightly assumed that the Giants will be keying backside RPO slant as a means of helping their isolated corner and after getting burned on that very concept to start this drive.

This time the Giants backside edge defender drops into coverage, widening as if to take away a slant or a hitch. I am potentially giving Mullens too much credit here, but in the frame above it seems like he’s even looking wide for a split second, specifically to keep that defender out of his intended passing lane inside. Meanwhile, both linebackers have bit on the play action fake and must bail to coverage. The linebacker closest to Aiyuk committed so much that he has to baseball turn and open to try and take away a dig or post route. Unsurprisingly, he won’t be able to get there in time.

At the bottom of the frame Juice actually looks inside at Mullens. I’m just guessing at this point, but I’d assume this is either to (A) create a very slow-developing heavy commitment to a run block fake in hopes that his man will jump the route and he’ll break open up the field, (B) sell the blocking fake to help the inside linebackers commit to the run, (C) he’s the hot read and can choose to break this route off if he sees a blitzing linebacker, or (D) this is just what a hitch-and-go from the slot looks like out of a run fake when you’re a fullback. I don’t know. These are just guesses. But regardless it’s another testament to the attention to detail this offense employs.

With the Giants trying to take away the backside RPO slant with their edge defender, they’ve now taken away a possible pass rusher to guard nothing but grass. Meanwhile, Mullens gets this gigantic passing lane to throw into, where he hits Aiyuk in stride and the rookie rumbles forward for a 19-yard gain.

Notice at the bottom of the screen Juice makes a mandatory outside release against his defender. He wants that defender to turn AWAY from the intended target, both to minimize the chance he can make a play on the ball and to create more of a runway for potential YAC.

Aiyuk PA Dig pic.twitter.com/jraeeNi2d1

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 28, 2020

To cap this very same drive, Shanahan once again plays against the Giants’ edge-rush stopping formation and their fast flow linebackers by dialing up this reverse, which gave Aiyuk a caravan of three blockers on one poor defender and could have likely been a touchdown from 90 yards out just as easily as 19. Again, he used Aiyuk, and again, it resembled how Deebo was deployed last year.

This is already gonna be too long so I’m not gonna breakdown this reverse, but here we’re selling a power to the left-side of the formation, even pulling Brunskill and having Garland and McGlinchey block down before peeling out to lead on the reverse after their defenders have already committed the wrong way. To get a real sense of the attention to detail of this play and how important Juice is to the offense, watch him from start to finish in this play. It is a wild blocking path.

Brandon Aiyuk goes untouched for the 19-yard TD run! #FTTB

📺: #SFvsNYG on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/9RobDGGsOD pic.twitter.com/ppDN0E1FLV

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2020

With 70 yards receiving on 5 catches and 31 on 3 carries, Aiyuk is getting deeply involved in the offense just as Deebo is set to return. That combo—especially when complemented by the defensive gravitational pull of George Kittle—is going to make for a whole lot of receiver/wing T running back versatility for Shanahan to toy with.

DEFENSE

Let’s give Robert Saleh the credit he deserves. While the Niners’ defensive explosion a year ago is often credited to improved talent and Kris Kocurek coming onboard, this game really showed how the entirety of the defensive unit—both in talent, cohesion, and scheme—has improved over the past two years. Despite being down so many key contributors, the Niners held the Giants without a touchdown, and—considering the opposition never crossed the Niners’ 29-yard line—it was never even close. That’s a testament to Saleh as much as anyone.

Dat D-Line Depth Doe: Down three-ish starters from their front four and with their top bench rusher and a key DT reserve still on the PUP list, the Niners showed that their supposed DL depth was more than just training camp fluff. 

We no longer have the insta-death third-and-long Turbo package, and two sacks and six QB hits may not be an eye-popping number, but the Niners held the Giants backs to 10 carries for 17 yards and—entering the fourth quarter before pulling starters—delivered pressure on 12 of 22 of Daniel Jones’ drop backs. It wasn’t a world-beating performance, but it showed how our pass rush is far from neutered despite the many missing bodies. We have the coaching, the system, and the depth to be able to sustain on defense without a total schematic overhaul. 

Dual Threat Daniel? To my memory, the Giants had four positive plays on offense. A perfectly placed back-shoulder pass and three zone read keepers from Daniel Jones (although the last one was called back on penalty, so the fact that I consider it one of their successful plays says all you need to know about the Giants’ offensive performance this game).

The three zone reads would have gone for 58 combined yards, the last of which moving the ball to the Niners’ 14-yard line before it was called back on a hold. Each zone read was a weak-side pull against Kwon Alexander and Dion Jordan (2x) or Kerry Hyder (1x). While I’m not entirely sure how the Niners choose to play zone read against teams that don’t usually run that concept, it would be smart to have something in place now and get the reps before the quarterbacks get considerably more athletic than Jones.

You could make the argument that every single quarterback we face moving forward—other than Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and maybe Dwayne Haskins—is a bigger run threat than Jones was. That includes Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson (2x), Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Dak Prescott. We’ve struggled thus far against dual-threat quarterbacks. It’s only going to get tougher.

Jason Verrett: After taking over for an injured Ahkello Witherspoon, the veteran got his first start since playing a single healthy game in 2017. Not only did Verrett get through the game healthy, but he played very well as our second and—after Moseley was knocked out—first corner, allowing only nine yards receiving, breaking up a pass, and making a couple key tackles. If he is a starter quality player or better, that would be huge for the depth of our secondary. But for now, congrats to him for simply getting back on the field and having some success after so many years of rehab.

Kyle Nelson WTF: This isn’t defense, but it’s where this section is gonna go. Nine-year veteran and long-time Niner Kyle Nelson had the worst long-snapping game I’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time. He was consistently off the mark, with one bad snap leading to a missed field goal and two snaps being so off they resulted in blown extra point conversion attempts. By the end of the game he was pulled for Justin Skule. Nelson wasn’t injured so it must have been a Markelle Fultzian case of the yips?

In a game where we won by four touchdowns and didn’t attempt a single punt, Nelson’s inaccuracy luckily didn’t matter, but it’s something that needs to get shored up immediately. A blown special teams assignment is the only thing between us and a 3-0 record right now, and games in the near future may come down to those kind of plays.

Misc. Fred Warner continued to cement himself as one of the top linebackers in the league, using film study and a timely pre-snap call out from Jaquiski Tartt to pick off a pass to Engram, and showing his presence versus the run and as a pass rusher… Despite being a part of two zone read pulls, Dion Jordan recovered a fumble and recorded a sack and two QB hits. He may wind up a one-trick pony as a speed rusher off the edge, but if employed the right way, that can still be useful… Fellow edge defender Kerry Hyder tallied a sack and three QB hits. While PFF gave him a low grade on the game, I didn’t notice it on the broadcast. He continued to make his presence felt off the edge… Although he was on the field for 45-of-52 defensive snaps, Kwon Alexander totaled only a single tackle on the day… Dontae Johnson gave up a 23-yard completion then had a bad hold on the very next play, giving me a brief bout of 2017 PTSD. But he broke up a pass two plays later. I’d still prefer if we were healthy enough that he could stick to specials… Marcell Harris played only seven snaps but registered two forced fumbles during that time… both Verrett and McKinnon made their first starts since 2017… former Niner Aldon Smith—now clean and with the Cowboys after years of rehab—tallied four tackles, three sacks, four QB hits, and a pass deflection against the Seahawks on Sunday… Joe Montana and his wife Jennifer stopped a crazy lady from kidnapping their 9 month-old grand daughter from their house in Malibu.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 3 @ Giants

This thumbnail is no longer relevant [Al Bello]

Date: Sunday, 9/27
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: 10AM PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Joe Judge, winner of the most football coach-y name of the year award, comes in as the new head man for the Giants after spending the past seven years working special teams under Bill Belichick and three years prior under Nick Saban at Alabama. This dude’s resume is a crusty old owner’s wet dream. In general, I tend to approve when a team hires a special teams coordinator, even if—as is the case with Judge—I know nearly nothing about them. It’s much less sexy than an offensive or defensive coordinator hire, which implies that the coach actually has to be qualified, and due to that they probably had to coach at a high level for way more years than, say—an upcoming offensive coordinator who had a cup of tea with Sean McVay once—in order to be considered for the job. Also, because there’s no shot that you’re going to call your own plays on offense or defense, you can focus more on the managerial aspects of coaching, and you usually hire some legit coordinators and let them do their thing.

INJURY REPORT (aka SAD!)

This is a screen grab from my phone from The Athletic that shows the Niners’ current injury report:

Of note, this is the most names my screen could capture. Perhaps if I’d ponied up for an iPhone XL, I’d have been able to see the two names that were left off—Jason Verrett and Jalen Hurd.

Speaking of Verrett, let’s start with some good news. Jason Verrett was back at practice on Wednesday and he was a full participant. It’ll be interesting to see who gets the start or if they rotate between him and Witherspoon—who struggled last week—on Sunday… D.J. Jones (ankle) was off the injury report and back to practice on Wednesday on Thursday. He should play… Dre Greenlaw (thigh) practiced Wednesday but not Thursday, which could be precautionary or could be a setback… George Kittle, who is apparently dealing with a bone bruise and a sprained MCL, practiced limited on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering we’ll be on the same turf as last week, both Greenlaw and Kittle are question marks. Let’s not push anything… Jimmy Garoppolo’s high ankle sprain wasn’t as bad as initially expected. Shanahan has said he could play against the Giants, but—again, with the turf and his long-term health is more important than a single early-season game—I’d expect Mullens to get the start. FWIW, Garoppolo didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, which would make a start on Sunday seem highly unlikely… Raheem Mostert has a mild MCL sprain. He’s in Ohio this week for the birth of his second child (congrats!) and is not expected to play on Sunday. Let’s keep that speed speedy and give him at least the week off. Would be nice for his family as well since they have stayed in Ohio out of safety concerns with COVID this year… running mate Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain and will miss “multiple weeks,” meaning we should see UDFA JaMycal Hasty much sooner than we’d anticipated… Richie James is, I think, officially out for this game with a hamstring injury… Dee Ford, whose neck injury turned into a back injury, is out “indefinitely.” Your guess is as good as mine as to when we see him again. It may be quite a while… Richard Sherman and Deebo Samuel remain on short-term IR. Samuel will be eligible to return next week against the Eagles. Sherman the week after that… lastly, Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas’ torn ACLs were both confirmed earlier this week. Both of them will be put on IR and are out the rest of the season. May they both have speedy and full recoveries. To replace them, Dion Jordan has been promoted from the practice squad and Ezekiel Ansah was brought in on a one-year deal. Meanwhile, Damontre Moore, another potential option who the Niners seemed confident would be available if need be, was actually swooped up by the Seahawks earlier this year when I wasn’t paying attention. Sad.

OFFENSE

Running the Giants offense is Jason Garrett, and despite his consistently not-good-enough returns as the head man in Dallas, it’s easy to forget Garrett was one of the hottest coordinators in the business before his promotion. Garrett—like any head coach that Dallas owner Jerry Jones would dare to bring on—is a company man who seems boring as shit. But he wasn’t brought to New York to be interesting, he was hired to tutor second-year quarterback Daniel Jones.

While I’ve knocked the Giants for drafting Jones when they did (and I will continue to do so cause they could have got him considerably later), I actually like Jones as a player and would choose him or Drew Lock to build a team around rather than Dwayne Haskins—the QB who went second to Kyler Murray in that draft. Jones seems like a heady dude who isn’t easily rattled with good accuracy and nice touch all over the field. He’s far from a polished product, his raw stats haven’t been great thus far, and he’s still prone to some ill-timed turnovers, but he projects well, and Garrett will bend over backwards to try and keep him from going down the Josh Rosen/Sam Darnold path of potentially-career-ruining mismanagement. While Garrett’s open admission that he considers “any drive that ends in a kick a success” sounds almost like a caricature of himself (three and outs all end in kicks after all), you can at least understand the conservative nature with a young QB. When it comes to young signal-callers, this isn’t Garrett’s first rodeo, and he probably doesn’t get enough credit for the work he did in shaping former fourth-rounder Dak Prescott into what he is now. Normally I’d say the Giants would likely lean on the run game to protect Jones, but...they don’t really have a run game. So Garrett will likely try to lean on the quick game, using lots of curl-flat and spacing variations to scheme up easy completions, and—if week one is any indicator—relying heavily on shotgun and empty sets to minimize the pass rush, open up the field, and give Jones some single-side two-receiver reads. To be clear, this is not the Jets. They can and will throw the ball down the field if they can protect it.

With Saquon Barkley’s injury, the Giants will be missing their best player in this game, but they realistically hadn’t figured out how to use him in the first two weeks anyways. To replace him they added Devonta Freeman. He’ll play on Sunday, but it will be interesting to see if he’ll have pass protections down by then. If not, his presence will likely signal a run or play action. Surrounding Jones will be a ton of 2’s and 3’s but no real 1’s. Golden Tate is a strong after-the-catch veteran but is certainly on the backend of his career. Tight end Evan Engram has some ability and—after a down year in 2019–the former first-round pick is surely meant to be a reclamation project for Garrett. Second-year wideout Darius Slayton could be in for a breakout season. While they don’t have any clear go-to guys, the worst of the above skill guys is likely better than the best the Jets had to offer by the end of last week. They can find open spots in zones. If given the chance, some of them can even break big plays.

The biggest question lies in the Giants’ offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks and twelve QB hits across their first two games. In their defense, they’ve gone up against two of the better defensive fronts in football in the Steelers and Bears. While it’s hard to say how much of the OL performance is based on overall competency versus strength of opposition, if we can apply similar pressure despite our injuries, then our defense should be in good shape.

Considering our decimated DL, that might mean more blitzing, and while Saleh always seems to dial up a blitz or two at exactly the right time, sending extra bodies is not exactly our strength. Against this OL, perhaps our pass rush will still be strong enough to get by without blitzing. Perhaps not. Perhaps we should be blitzing more regardless as it’s something we’re sure to need down the road with Bosa and Thomas gone for the year and Dee Ford missing indefinitely.

Regardless of how we apply it, if we can maintain pressure on Jones, our defense should be in good shape. The Giants run a methodical kind of attack that lets them string together long drives—against the Steelers they had a 19-play drive that fizzled out after a red zone pick. If they’re allowed to, they have the diversity of talent and play-calling to pepper down the field, chew up clock, and tire out our undermanned DL. Applying pressure to mix up Jones’ reads and mess up his clock is the best way to create the forced passes and late throws underneath that the second-year signal-caller suffers from in spurts.

This is not an overly dynamic offense, but it’s also far from the lowly Jets. They’re not going to explode for 30+ per game, but they have the means of moving the ball and controlling game flow if we let them. Getting them out of sync early will be important so as not to wear out what is already a thin defensive unit.

DEFENSE

Patrick Graham is the new defensive coordinator, and he takes over a group that was—in 2019—pretty good against the run, absolutely horrid against the pass, and overall just not that great. Graham likes to run a multiple front, winning by disguise and variation. He’s shown plenty of four- and three-man fronts in the early goings this season, and—since he and Judge are part of the extended Patriots tree and Graham was DC for the Dolphins last year—they likely want to move to a position-less front seven. But that’s somewhere down the road. Regardless of the front, they typically employ a six man box and five (or more) DBs on the field—giving up the extra size for more versatility. 

Just like the Jets last week, there’s talent and draft capital that’s been put into this defensive line, but it’s shown up much more in the run game. Former 6th overall pick Leonard Williams was their big trade deadline pickup last year. He’s strong against the run but has only 18.5 sacks in 76 career starts in the NFL—including a grand total of half a sack in 16 games last year. Based on the idea that a bit under half of QB hits typically become sacks, you’d think his 103 QB hits during that span would eventually even out, but at this point it seems like he’s a walking exception to the rule who simply doesn’t close. He’s joined by Dalvin Tomlinson and promising 2019 first-rounder Dexter Lawrence, both capable run-stoppers who have so far shown little as pass rushers. If there’s hope for an in-line pass rusher it’s Lorenzo Carter, who’s shown some juice off the edge in the opening games. 

In the off-season the Giants brought in run-stuffer Blake Martinez to man the mike linebacker position of their defense. The Stanford product doesn’t give you a ton in coverage but is strong between the tackles and has flashed as a pass-rusher in the past.

In the secondary, the Giants prefer a 5 DB look with three safeties, choosing to roll down Jabrill Peppers into a box/quasi-linebacker role while keeping the other two deep. At corner, James Bradberry is likely their top guy. He’s not spectacular but isn’t a liability either. 2019 first-round pick DeAndre Baker was supposed to be their other boundary corner, but—after losing big money during a pandemic dice game, robbing the winners at gunpoint, and possibly putting out a hit on the witnesses so that they didn’t testify—he was let go. Hence their other boundary corner is Corey Ballentine, the rookie Darnay Holmes mans the slot, and both have had a rough go of things so far. The cornerback position is a work in progress and a definite weak spot. Undermanned out wide and with our backup quarterback making his first start in over a year, will we be able to take advantage of it?

EMERGENCY NICK MULLENS SECTION

I guess this is about as good a time as ever to get reacquainted with our backup quarterback. Mullens, an UDFA in 2017, got his first career start midway through 2018 against the Oakland Raiders, running train on them in hilarious fashion with 262 passing yards, 3 tugs, and the best QB rating ever in an NFL debut (151.9). Mullens’ debut, on national television nonetheless, was so impressive that he gained a Twitter blue checkmark mid-game. Given the current state of our injury report, let us bask in the glory of that moment for a bit:

Check out player highlights of Nick Mullens debut in Week 9. The Oakland Raiders take on the San Francisco 49ers during Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season. Subscr...

While lacking in ideal size or arm talent, Mullens is a confident dude who—for better or worse—isn’t afraid to rifle passes into tight windows. While he lacks a true deep ball arm, he flashes nice velocity on underneath passes and can get the ball out quickly and decisively. He went 3-5 for a team that was 1-7 without him—including a win over a playoff-bound Seattle team that was vying for seeding position—and is one of the better backup QBs in the league.

If you’re looking for “a play it safe,” quarterback who wants to do “just enough to get by,” Mullens is NOT your guy. His 3.6% interception percentage in 2018 was tied for fourth-highest in the NFL alongside stalwarts—and then fellow rookies—Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold. He also threw a pick and fumbled twice last week. While he’ll surely look smoother with first-team reps in practice, Mullens has a go-get-it mentality. He’s not a game manager. Against a young squad like the Giants that may seem like a potential liability, and perhaps it will be. But in a matchup where we don’t have a talent advantage, Mullens’ aggressive mindset may be necessary to give us a puncher’s chance while we’re down so many of our key parts. As of now it’s impossible to say how much—if any—we’ll see Mullens in the upcoming weeks, but if the Niners want to ride out the 4-6 week high ankle injury timetable before putting Jimmy back in the fray then how Mullens performs could decide whether or not we have a shot at defending the NFC West crown down the stretch.

Anyways, back to the Giants…

With a new coaching staff and scheme, particularly one that is so multiple in its approach, it’s tough to tell what this defense will look like from week-to-week. If I had to guess, their shift towards smaller personnel will help their pass rush but hurt their run defense. Benny Snell rumbled for 113 yards on a healthy 5.9 YPC in the opener, the Bears ran for another 135 on 4.2 YPC last week, and count me as skeptical on the idea of six-man boxes and extra safeties stopping us from absolutely gashing, especially on edge runs. It is very hard for these quasi-box/quasi-alley safeties at 5-7 yards off the line to fill the right hole at the right time against a stretch rushing attack that has ever-changing points of attack, the constant threat of cut back lanes, and employs track stars in the backfield who—by the time they’ve committed to a hole—are firing into the second-level like they’re shot out of a cannon. For reference, the last team to try a 6-man box with safeties filling on the edges against us was the Packers in the playoffs, and well... yeah. If we had Mostert I’d be throwing down money that he’d spring another gigantic TD run in this one, but without him and Coleman, it’s hard to be as confident in scoring game-breaking runs. Regardless, there should be room to run as long as we have our eyes up and are willing to attack the cutback.

Our offensive line should be able to get push in the run game, but they’ll need to protect Mullens better than they did against the Jets—especially since there hasn’t been a backup quarterback in league history who hasn’t gotten the shit blitzed out of him the second he came in the game. While our QBs were efficient in chipping away at the Jets’ zone coverage, they did suffer three sacks and got hit an alarming 11 times. Part of that was Jimmy not being able to move, part of it was the Jets teeing off on Mullens, but—regardless of passing efficiency or defensive scheme—unless we want the Nick Mullens era to quickly give way to the CJ Beathard one, we need to protect our quarterback better in this one. If our OL can pick up the Giants’ various fronts and pass rush stunts, there’s little reason to think the Giants’ back seven will be able to shut down our skill guys—especially with Sanu and (potentially) Kittle added to the fold. A new coaching staff with a multiple defense isn’t the dream first matchup for a backup QB making his first start in over a year, and I’m sure they’ll do everything they can to confuse Mullens with blitz looks and odd coverages. In response, I’d guess the Niners will break him in easy with more single-side reads, quick game, and play action as they figure out what the Giants are doing coverage-wise. From there it’ll be up to Mullens to deliver.

Go Niners 👍🏈