Preview: Wk6 vs. Rams

Q: Does playing possum work against the best player in the NFL? [Brad Mills/USA Today]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (4-1)
Date: Sunday, 10/18
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Time: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

Two men enter, one comes out. Welcome to the Thunderdome. The soft part of our schedule is over. Now begins our seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 26-7, including all of the NFC’s remaining unbeatens.

First up, the Los Angeles Rams.

While last year’s 9-7 Rams finished the season strong and would have been the last wildcard entrant under the new playoff format, it was a down year for what was the NFL’s darling just months prior. Now, with an updated offense and a brand-new defense, the Rams are one bad pass interference call away from an undefeated record. While all four of their wins have come against the NFC East, this is still a team that can make a claim as the most balanced—and perhaps even best—team in the NFC through five weeks. They are unquestionably our toughest test to date and will be an excellent barometer for what kind of season we’re still capable of having.

INJURY REPORT

As of Wednesday… Jimmy Garoppolo has practiced in full (last week he was only limited). He should start again this Sunday and hopefully—for all our sakes—will look and play much better… on the flip side, Kwon Alexander, who was just starting to play his best football of the season, suffered a high-ankle sprain (though I have no idea when). As a player who has to run a lot, that would keep him out an estimated 4-6 weeks. This means Dre Greenlaw slides into his spot and Azeez Al-Shair, whose had a few rough outings, will be our Sam linebacker... there was hope that we’d have our two top corners back this week. While Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) practiced no-contact on Wednesday and has a real shot to return based on how he finishes the last stages of the concussion protocol, Richard Sherman (calf) never even returned to practice after a setback at some point during his rehab. He is—for the third week in a row—hopeful to return next week. At least Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) was off the injury report on Wednesday and is good to go… I totally miscounted in the Dolphins recap. We’re now on week 6, meaning Ronald Blair, Jullian Taylor, and Weston Richburg are still at least one week away from returning.

OFFENSE

Sean McVay comes from the Shanahan offensive tree (even if he often gets credit for many elements of it), which means the Rams run lots of zone and stretch and rely heavily on play action passes. The key differences between our scheme and the Rams’ is that (a) they run considerably lighter personnel sets—choosing instead to have wideouts in bunch formations and condensed splits who do tight end/fullback roles rather than the other way around, (b) they rely much more on deep passes versus the short-to-intermediate game, and (c) their schemes are often simpler than ours—with the goal being to have a number of different run and pass plays that all initially look the same. While McVay was originally lauded for the simplicity of his system, the equally simple defensive solution of 6-1 fronts and quarters coverage puzzled the Rams for the better part of a full calendar year. So McVay spent the off-season trying to get his mojo back and added a few new wrinkles to mix things up.

Ted Nguyen from The Athletic had a great write up about the successful changes the Rams have made in 2020, but the basics are this: (1) using fly motion towards and against their run game to diminish tendencies and open gaps underneath, (2) stealing a lot of run game concepts that Shanahan used so effectively last year as mix-up to zone/stretch, (3) putting Jared Goff on the move a lot (like A LOT), and (4) throwing the ball less down the field—typically with split-field quick game or play action leak outs that hope to maximize yards after catch. In 2018, Goff averaged 8.8 intended air yards per pass. In 2017, that fell to 7.8. Through four games this season, he’s averaged 5.9 IAY/throw, which isn’t only the lowest in the league but the lowest since the stat started being tracked in 2016. So yeah, in short he fixed their offense by copying as much as he could from what Shanahan did last year and rolling out Goff a lot.

This simpler iteration of Shanahan’s offense has led to a major boost in the run game—the Rams are #1 in rushing DVOA through five weeks—and the three-headed tailback committee of Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson have helped Jared Goff to the best stretch of play in his career. Goff gets a lot of heat from people (some have even claimed that he’s playing well in part because the stadiums have no fans so McVay can more clearly talk to him and tell him where to throw the ball before the snap), but ultimately Goff doesn’t get the credit he deserves for the Rams’ hot start. When Goff is on, he’s really on and can throw the ball on all three levels with incredible accuracy—especially when he’s throwing deep or rolling out. When he’s off, he’s really off and can look totally lost—especially when he has to scan the full field quickly under pressure. Goff has always been a player of massive variance, but he’s yet to see those lows this year, and when the Rams have been able to move the pocket, work off play action and bootlegs, and in general avoid full-field dropbacks, he can (and has) been lights out. So naturally, our goal should be to not let him do those things.

This fact was no more apparent than the last time the Rams played the Niners, when McVay—in a move that was admittedly brilliant and has in part led to the Rams’ current offense—ran play action bootlegs on nearly every single pass play, even though the Rams’ rushing attack was floundering. This full-on commitment to play action paid dividends early in that game.

Here were the Rams’ offensive stats in the first half of last year’s week 15 matchup:

At halftime, Robert Saleh adjusted to have the Niners’ defensive ends play quarterback instead of cutback on bootlegs, tasked second-line defenders on blitzes to tie up backfield leak out options to take away easy passes, and the Rams’ bootleg hack was effectively neutralized. With Los Angeles having to resort to more stationary play action passes, Goff was less protected and had to read the middle of the field more. While he’d have some success out of empty gun sets—including on their only touchdown drive of the second half—Goff would finish the game with less than five completions out of true drop back passes.

It’ll likely be less simple this time around. The Rams run game is highly more effective this season, their added motion to or away from run action means we can’t cheat our bootleg-side defensive ends as aggressively, we’re down Bosa/DeFo/Ford, and Goff is simply playing much better than last year. That being said, the strategy should still be to force Goff into as many true drop back full-field reads as possible and pressure him when we do. 

If Moseley is back from injury, it’ll be very interesting to see who plays in the nickel this game. Jamar Taylor was no Brian Allen last week but he allowed nearly 100 yards receiving himself (the two combined for something like 214 I believe?). Witherspoon is a lankier guy and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him in the slot so would they bump Moseley inside in nickel packages to get their best three corners on the field? Or would they add Tarvarius Moore and roll him or Jimmie Ward down into the slot? Having capable slot play will be crucial against a squad that prides itself in its receiver depth and still runs 11 personnel 72% of the time. While our linebacker corps is tailor-made to play well against receivers who are asked to do bigger bodied duties, there’s only so much base that you can play against three wide sets and that number decreases with Kwon out of the lineup.

There will be equally as much pressure on our re-made defensive line to have a strong two-way performance. Our young interior has been mostly impressive against the run thus far. They’ll have to continue that level of play in order to help cloud up the inside and cutback lanes and allow our edges to—as odd as it sounds—play the bootleg honest. In the passing game the Rams OL is ranked in the top 10 in every pass-blocking metric imaginable; we’ll surely need to send some extra men to get home but that further complicates how we defend one of the league’s most dangerous screen games. In short, everyone in the front seven will have to be on their toes to win at the line of scrimmage and shrink Goff’s comfort zone.

Given the Rams’ offensive improvements and our defensive injuries, we should go in expecting McVay and Goff to have some success on Sunday. The key will be making them earn it via drop back passes, generating negative plays and turnovers, and clamping down while in the red zone—an area of the field where McVay’s teams have often struggled. We don’t have the horses to shut them down, but if our cornerback room gets just a bit healthier, we have the ability to do enough.

DEFENSE

The Rams were quick to boot Wade Phillips to the curb this off-season, as they believed they needed a fresh face that would challenge McVay in X’s and O’s. To find a defensive coordinator who fit the bill, ownership told their young head coach to “find your own Sean McVay.” While that’s the douchiest and most Los Angeles comment I’ve ever heard—and reminiscent of how Oprah decides lineups on her TV channel based on if people on the show “remind herself of herself”—the result of that search was Brandon Staley, a 37 year-old Vic Fangio protege. 

FWIW, I think Vic Fangio’s D—which could have been our D if the Bears hadn’t blocked him from interviewing to come back to run the defense under Shanahan—is the best in the business. I also think he was Shanahan’s top pick as DC but I obviously have no means of proving that. Which then also presents an alternate reality where Fangio has been made a head coach somewhere else and Staley is actually our defensive coordinator at the moment… (head explosion emoji). Anyways…

The Vic Fangio defense employs a 3-4 front that generates pressure with four but can bring blitzers if needed; its two-high quarters coverage gives tremendous flexibility and lots of help to corners or safeties so they can play above their means; its versatile fronts and personnel groupings wreck havoc on opposing blocking schemes; and in general it’s just very well-coached and takes away big plays as well as any defense. Granted, that’s what the Fangio defense looks like under Fangio. But early in his tenure, Graham’s unit has been impressive. 

The Rams have the flexibility to play three- or four-man fronts, largely because Aaron Donald—the best player in all of football—can line up anywhere along the line and have success. The rest of their front seven is made up of a smattering of assorted parts. Former first-rounder Leonard Floyd comes in from Chicago as their latest Dante Fowler-esque reclamation project. He’s got juice off the edge but has yet to make a major impact thus far. Opposite him is Samson Ebukam whose had a rough transition to the new defense. According to PFF, he’s ranked dead last—110th out of 110—amongst all edge defenders this year. 

At linebacker, the Rams take the same approach as the Eagles: they don’t value the position. Three years ago when they last time they totally disregarded the position they unearthed UDFA Cory Littleton, one of the top coverage linebackers in the league. Now he’s gone and they’re trying to replace him with two rookies. It has not gone well, although Troy Reeder—who played only 18 snaps prior to this Sunday—totaled 11 tackles, 2 for loss, and three sacks against the Racial Slurs. I have no idea if that means he’s about to break out or if it was a total fluke against a bad football team.

In the secondary, the Rams run almost entirely split-field coverages (although they do have a three-high safety look that I wouldn’t expect against us). Their safeties are good and their boundary corner play is very strong. That starts with Jalen Ramsey, one of if not the best corner in the league. While the Cover 2 Read system doesn’t require great cornerback play, Ramsey’s ability allows them to be more creative with their split-field coverages and not worry about isolated receivers opposite trips formations. He has the talent and athleticism that he gets to freelance a bit.

First thing’s first when you play the Rams: make sure Aaron Donald doesn’t single-handedly blow up your entire offensive game plan, which—given the massive struggles of our offensive line in pass protection—is not out of the question. If we can block him upfront, the rest of the rushers aren’t world-beaters, but—as evidenced by their eight sacks against Washington last week—they‘re far from inept in the pressure department. Running the ball early and often could help keep them at bay. This Rams team has the 3rd-best DVOA against the pass but is ranked 24th against the run—averaging a healthy 4.7 yards/carry through five weeks of play against largely subpar rushing attacks. We need the run game to be successful and to remain a viable option throughout this contest otherwise we’ll risk exposing our gimpy quarterback to some tough looks. The last thing we want is to get into a similar game flow as last week.

Like the Eagles, the Rams believe in finding linebackers cheap and via the draft, NOT paying them. Three years ago, scouting/luck led them to Cory Littleton emerging into one of the top coverage linebackers in the game. Now he’s gone and the new crop doesn’t look as promising. If we can establish the run game and have success in our heavy sets that will put their linebackers in a more compromised position in the passing game—where our talented tight ends and backs can work the middle of the field. Considering their talent on the boundaries, we should be able to find some success between the hashes as long as we can pull safety help via alignment and route combinations. We need to get our wideouts more involved, but—if possible—avoiding Ramsey unless absolutely necessary would be recommended.

The past two games have seen us go wildly off-script. Against the Eagles it was due to poor pass protection and poor execution by Nick Mullens. Against the Dolphins it was due to... well pretty much everything. But despite the past two performances, we’re far from a bad team and this doesn’t have to be a lost season. If we avoid the mistakes and negative plays that have plagued us this season and control game flow like we did last year, we can win this game. As stated before, the best teams’ down years are still playoff years. While I’m not sure the best teams have ever been as ravaged by injuries as we currently are, that should still be the standard, and winning a critical divisional battle to regain a positive trajectory would be a nice first step.

Go Niners 👍🏈