Preview: Wk4 vs. Eagles

Never a good sign when these guys are smiling this much [Lori M. Nichols]

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1, 3rd in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 10/4
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

When healthy, the Eagles are one of the top 5 most talented teams in the entire NFL. But, like us, “when healthy” has been a troublesome caveat over the past few years. After their 2017 run, the Eagles went all-in on the present, trying to win as many chips before the major cap spike in Carson Wentz’s contract hit. Well, Wentz’s cap figure nearly doubles in 2021 and even with contract restructures to both Alshon Jeffery and Lane Johnson, the Eagles are—as currently constructed—$65 million over next year’s estimated salary cap. All this to say, this is the oldest and—soon to be—most expensive roster in the league, and their window for winning is now.

They have yet to win a game this season.

INJURY REPORT

49ERS: George Kittle (knee) and Jet McKinnon (ribs) were full participants in practice this week. They should play on Sunday… the Niners also opened the practice window for Deebo Samuel (foot) to return from IR. They’ll evaluate him this week and decide if he’s healthy/prepared enough to play this weekend… Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and K’Waun Williams (hip) were limited participants as of Thursday. Witherspoon was a full participant on Wednesday so either had a minor setback or they’re trying not to push him, while Williams didn’t practice on Wednesday so at least he’s trending in the right direction… Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) have yet to practice this week. Of those four Moseley is the most likely to be back in time for Sunday (as he just needs to pass the concussion protocol)… Jordan Reed (knee), Mark Nzeocha (quad), and Dee Ford (neck/back) will be put on IR this week. Ford’s injury has no real timetable. It could be a few weeks or it could be much longer. Therein lies the issue with neck/back issues. Reed is expected to miss 6-8 weeks, meaning he should be available for the stretch run… Richard Sherman (calf) is out this week. He has at least one more week on IR before he’s eligible to return… Ronald Blair (ACL) and Jullian Taylor (ACL) remain on the PUP list. They won’t be eligible to return until week 7.

EAGLES: Considering the many injuries to the Eagles, I’ll include them in here as well. All-Pro guard Brandon Brooks was lost to an achilles injury in the preseason. He’s obviously out. So are first-round rookie Jalen Raegor (finger), starting DE Vinny Curry (hamstring), second-line tight end Dallas Goedert (lower body), starting LG Isaac Seumalo (knee), “starting” LT Andre Dillard (biceps)—although he was so bad last year a 38 year-old Jason Peters may still be a better player—and starting boundary corner Avonte Maddox—another potential addition by subtraction; before last Sunday I had a whole section prepared about how to target him as often as possible. Meanwhile DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are unlikely plays on Sunday, with fellow wideouts JJ Arcega-Whiteside (injury) and John Hightower (illness) missing practices this week as well. Hightower seems likely to play. Not sure about the rest.

ROSTER MOVES

Kyle Nelson is out as long-snapper. Shanahan said it was a tough cut personally but that Nelson had actually been trending down before last week and they had to make a move. Taking over long-snapping duties is Taybor Pepper, the 26 year-old former Packer and Dolphin whose name sounds like either an artisanal seasoning, a pop star from a foreign country, or an Eastern European bad guy from an 80’s movie… Daniel Helm was brought back to replenish our TE room; he was swooped up off the Bucs’ practice squad… Joe Walker is a likely promotion to the active roster after Nzeocha was placed on IR… CB Jamar Taylor, who played a bunch of snaps for us in the nickel during training camp, was added back to the practice squad. He’s likely insurance in case K’Waun Williams can’t go this week… OT Cody Conway and TE Charlie Taumoepeau are second- and first-year players, respectively, who were added to the practice squad.

OFFENSE

Head coach Doug Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple, originally getting the head job in Philadelphia in 2016 as a means of fully apologizing for the Chip Kelly era. Similar to Reid, Pederson wants to spread out and throw the ball. The Eagles are largely a shotgun-based team and run almost entirely 11 and 12 personnel, but otherwise have a very multiple approach to offense, in part because of their flexible personnel.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert make up the best tight end duo in the NFL and are a big reason the Eagles run so much 12 personnel. Both of them have the size, athleticism, and receiving chops to line up and make plays all over the field. Ertz is a bit more polished and sure-handed while Goedert is younger, speedier, and the better blocker. With Goedert available they ran WAY more 12 personnel than anyone else this season. Now that he’s out I’d expect more 11, but… they did sign 2019 fourth-rounder Hakeem Butler to replace him. For anyone who doesn’t remember Butler (likely everyone), he was a super intriguing deep-ball specialist out of Iowa State last year but missed his rookie year due to injury. He was cut from the Cardinals this off-season (red flag #1) and—despite his 6’5 225 pound frame—is a receiver not a tight end (red flag #2). Seeing as he was a raw and somewhat finesse-y receiver coming out of college, I assume he will not be asked to block at all. If he plays, I can’t imagine it will be major snaps.

At receiver is an abundance of speed. The Eagles brought DeSean Jackson back into the fold last year, but he played only one game and, as an undersized 33 year-old known for his speed, has had inconsistent availability this year. As an insurance policy and succession strategy for his ability to stretch the field, the Eagles drafted three(!) speedy wideouts in this year’s draft—the most exciting of which being first-rounder Jaelen Raegor—and even traded for Marquise Goodwin, although the former is hurt and the latter opted out due to the successful birth of his child (congrats Quise!). John Hightower will likely see major snaps. He’s tall, fast, and runs deep but—as a fifth round pick—does little else at this point. Greg Ward Jr., college fade merchant and likely NFL bust JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Alshon Jeffery—if healthy—will round out the majority of receiver snaps.

In the simplest of terms the Eagles offense wants to threaten vertically with their receivers, beating the defense over the top or pushing them back enough so that the wideouts can work intermediate break-off routes like digs and comebacks. Meanwhile, their tight ends work the middle of the field, either creating mismatches in man coverage or finding soft spots in zones that are spread out vertically due to the speed outside. On the ground, they have a rotating stable of backs, but the belief is second-year pro Miles Sanders will take over whatever their equivalent is of a “bell cow” role. Like the tight ends, the backs are heavily involved in the underneath passing game.

At quarterback is Carson Wentz, a 2017 MVP front-runner who has regressed since the Eagles’ Super Bowl run. While I didn’t expect a full-on cliff-dive as we’ve seen early this year, there were signs the past few seasons. The 2017 season saw Wentz—with a loaded roster that was entirely healthy—gain nationwide fame for making big plays off-script in clutch situations. His 11-2 starting record and insane third down numbers (9.5 YPA with a 14/3 TD-to-INT ratio) pointed to a transcendent player who simply needed to grow out of some young QB inconsistencies before he’d join the league’s elite. Two plus years later, that hasn’t been the case. Wentz’s third down magic has regressed—implying it was more statistical outlier from a young player who teams hadn’t scouted yet then a repeatable trait—and his consistency issues have shown no signs of stopping. Yes, he still has plus athleticism and elite arm talent. When he’s on he can buy time with his feet and throw darts down the sideline to create big gains all over the field. But while pulling a rabbit out of your hat when the chips are down is a great quality to have, it doesn’t mean much if you—as Wentz often does—struggle within the structure of an offense. Suspect accuracy, routine misses, and generating negative plays on first and second down by trying to make something out of nothing don’t get wiped out by the occasional good one on third-and-long. Early down success rate matters. Keeping your offense on time matters. Yardage counts just as much on first and second down as it does on third. Ultimately, a play that is called open will be open more often than one that requires scrambling and pinpoint back foot throws under pressure—regardless of how impressive those throws may look in a highlight. To Wentz’s credit, there are more issues on this offense than simply his play, and Doug Pederson certainly deserves his fair share of the blame for not finding a way to adapt the offense to fit Wentz’s strengths and get their franchise QB back on track.

This Eagles offense is loaded with talent and lacking in consistency, both schematically and in terms of performance. In the opening week they committed to the deep ball, totaling the highest yards per pass attempt in the league while jumping out to an early 17-0 over the Racial Slurs. But their offense fizzled down the stretch and a banged-up OL and commitment to the deep ball led to a whopping 8 sacks. The next week, despite returning top-flight tackle Lane Johnson and facing a much-less frightening Rams defensive front, the Eagles went heavy on the short passes. This protected Wentz—he wasn’t sacked on the day and was only hit twice—but the offense continued to sputter due to a series of missed completions underneath. Against the Bengals… well they had to come back on the last drive of the fourth quarter, aided by multiple penalties, in order to get the game to OT—a game which ended with a false start on a would-be game-winning 58-yard field goal and an ensuing game-tying punt.

So what should we expect from the Eagles offense? It’s truly hard to say—both because they’re so temperamental and because our pass rush is much less than it once was. The Eagles often struggle and grow impatient when they are forced to stay in the short-to-intermediate passing game for too long, and I get the feeling that neither Pederson nor Wentz see a dink-and-dunk approach as the path to righting their offensive woes. Given that, I’d guess they test our Sherman-less corners deep early—especially if Moseley can’t play. If they can threaten deep that could give them the cushion needed to open up the deep outs, digs, and stop routes that they run of their vertical stems. If they don’t have DeSean I’m not sure how well that deep threat will work, but they seem to require those vertical routes to get anything else going.

Up until this year, Wentz has played behind one of the best, if not the single best, offensive line in all of football. Just in 2019, the line featured—according to PFF—the league’s #1 center (out of 35), #4 and #6 tackles (out of 81), and the #1 and #19 guards (out of 83). That is absurd. Now, both of those guards are gone and their OL is almost as banged up as our DL is. All that said, this is still a team that gets good push up the middle and can run the ball, both with Sanders and Wentz on designed keepers and scrambles. Considering our issues defending dual-threat QBs and their injuries out wide, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a bit more designed runs and potentially some of second-round run-threat Jalen Hurts in zone read/wildcat-y packages. If they can get consistent yardage on the ground, that can open up their play action, which can help their backup receivers get open and can free up some attention from Ertz—Wentz’s favorite target.

The Eagles want to shorten this game so stopping the running game, regardless of who’s carrying the ball, will be key in this one. If we can keep them from getting easy yards on the ground then—assuming Moseley plays—we should have the horses in the secondary to shut down the deep ball against their depleted receiving corps. If that’s the case, we put the Eagles in the position where they have to methodically move down the field in the short-to-intermediate game and there’s only so much that hooks to Zach Ertz and frantic passes to running backs in the flats can get them. That is not the game flow that the Eagles want and would likely keep Pederson/Wentz from getting on the same page.

DEFENSE

Jim Schwartz, of handshake with Harbaugh fame, may look like he’s always mid-fart and that he’s adamant that you smell it afterwards, but he coaches up a good defense. And despite some embarrassing moments against the Rams, Schwartz—even with his haircut and facial hair—typically finds a way to settle his players into a good-or-better unit by season’s end. Despite the Eagles’ play as a team this year, their defense has been mostly strong. While it’s still early in the season, the Eagles have the 9th-best Defensive DVOA, largely on the back of their ability to win up front.

The Eagles are primarily a four-man front, with a deep and talented DL that features—when healthy—the best interior duo in the league in Fletcher Cox and Pittsburgh-import Javon Hargrave (plus starter-quality sub Malik Jackson). On the edges are the perennially underrated Brandon Graham (a top 20 PFF score in each of the last eight seasons; a top 10 finish in six of them) and a deep rotation of youngsters that includes 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. Even without Vinny Curry this is an elite unit, the unquestioned strength of their defense, and one of the best pass-rushing groups in the NFL. Despite Cox missing time, they’re third in the league in sacks and fresh off an 8-sack performance of Joe Burrow last week. Blocking them will be the #1 indicator to our offensive success and an excellent test for an offensive line that—particularly on the interior—hasn’t really excelled at either pass or run blocking this year.

After some struggles last year, the Eagles secondary has been revamped for 2020. Out goes long-time captain Malcolm Jenkins—cornerback Jalen Mills replaces him at safety. Darius Slay came over from the Lions via trade and received a hefty contract extension; he had a down year in 2019 but was one of the better corners and ballhawks before then. He’s their clear No.1. Bradley Nickell Robey-Coleman, best known for cheating and getting away with it in the 2018 NFC Championship, comes in at the nickel. Last year, issues in the secondary caused Schwartz to mix in a ton of different zone coverages. To his credit, the schematic shift worked and the Eagles led the league in pass breakups. This year Schwartz hopes things can go a bit more smoothly. So far, they haven’t.

Like many analytics teams across the NFL, the Eagles devalue the importance of linebackers. They’d prefer to spend their money along the DL and the secondary, believing that they can find serviceable linebackers at a discount who will perform well enough within their scheme. Due to that, their starting lineup is green, and—so far this season—it’s shown in their play on the field.

Everything we do offensively should be aimed at mitigating the strength of their DL while attacking their back seven—which has had its issues this year. Our quick game should be viable. Breaking out our slip screens would be a good way to get guys like Kittle and our backs in space while slowing up the Eagles’ pass rush. As would all manner of bootlegs—especially those with leak outs and cross-action behind the line of scrimmage—as long as Mullens is playing or Jimmy G is healthy enough to run. Overall, a healthy Kittle will be a major matchup problem for a team with back seven questions.

Play action should be effective in this one as the Eagles’ DBs have been caught peeking more than a few times on play fakes and the linebackers don’t have tremendous redirect speed. The back seven has struggled with both misdirection and assignment confusion—especially from their cornerbacks. That means condensed and bunch sets and pre-snap motion could be used to confuse man coverage assignments and spring open receivers. Closed sets with multiple tight ends would also give the added benefit of forcing their corners to tackle in the running game while creating confusion—especially in the red zone—with pass coverage assignments. Setting up a DB as an edge defender in a run-pass bind on a play action could work doubly well. Using formations and motion to setup isolation slants would be a nice way to get Aiyuk and (hopefully) a freshly returned Deebo matched up one-on-one on whoever is replacing the injured Avonte Maddox—who struggled mightily to start the year. Perhaps his injury will allow for a better player to step into his place. Or maybe he’s the best they had and his replacement will be even worse. We can only hope for the latter.

While their DL is good enough to penetrate and stop a lateral run for a loss at any moment and their linebackers will be selling hard play-side to prevent us from edging them in the run game, misdirection could be key if we can block it up front. Fly and orbit motions—along with any kind of reverses (Deebo plz?)— could help slow up run fits, provide play action leak outs, and—when the ball is actually given the other way—spring big gains against run action. We could also see a healthy dose of our split-flow backfield action, as cutback lanes could open up nicely given fast-flow from the linebackers and suspect tackling from the DBs. Similar to the cutback, RPOs could be in play as well—anything to punish the fast flow that they’ll likely need to compensate for our speed advantage.

I keep expecting the Eagles to turn things around, if not permanently than at least for a mid-season push. While they’re nowhere near the 2017 Super Bowl champ team, this is still a talent-laden roster that has been to the playoffs each of the past three years (twice winning their division). But perhaps they’re just too old and dysfunctional, or that those post-2017 playoff trips have been a bit of a mirage, a product of some good bounces and a weak NFC East. After all, including playoffs, the Eagles have gone 19-19-1 since that Super Bowl run and eight of those wins were against the Giants and Racial Slurs.

I see this game much like the Monday Night game against the Browns last year—a prove-it game and potential turning point for a preseason darling (remember, the Eagles were largely favored in this game before the season started). If the Eagles can scrape together a win it would be a turning point for both squads. But if they show up like the Browns did last year and get absolutely embarrassed on national television… this could mark the twilight of an era that likely ends in a major off-season blowup.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 36, Giants 9

#mood [Full Press Coverage]

This was a statement win. 

The Giants aren’t a great team and this wasn’t the prettiest contest and a win on Sunday didn’t guarantee that our injury issues would fix themselves or that we’re destined for another magical run, but winning the way that we did given the circumstances is a statement of a different kind: that 2019 wasn’t a one-off.

Winning this year is just as much about chasing a Super Bowl as it is about cementing ourselves as a perennial contender. The best franchises don’t let strings of injuries—no matter how extensive, unlucky, or even comical in circumstance—knock them from their contender status. A down year is a trip to the playoffs. An up year is a championship run. That’s not to say we’re already there as franchise—there’s no way of obtaining that status before we see how this season shakes out—but it is to say that this was a good sign. So while we beat up on yet another lowly New York squad in a largely boring contest, this game was a statement that—despite being down 11 starters by the second quarter (three of them All-Pros)—we are still deep enough, talented enough, and well-coached enough to blow out the competition.

It was a statement of resilience.

OFFENSE

The Niners chipped through the first half—showing signs of breaking away but never shutting the door on the Giants—until a Shanahan defensive-download at halftime led to this stat line in the second half:

Three drives
27 plays
197 yards
Three touchdowns

This was after Jordan Reed, Mullens’ favorite early target and a major part of the game plan, went out with injury in the first half. The Niners didn’t punt for the first time since 1993, nearly doubled the Giants’ time of possession, and totaled 420 (the devil’s lettuce) yards of total offense while down our number one quarterback, wide receiver, two tight ends, and two running backs. That’s damn impressive, regardless of competition.

Young Money Mullens: Despite a bit of a slow start and some issues getting the calls in and out of the huddle on time, Mullens really got into rhythm in the second half. He was in full command of the offense, did a great job of finding passing lanes, pushed the ball with zip into tight windows, and showed nice touch when lofting passes over defenders. Ten Niners caught balls in this one, seven amassing 20+ yards receiving, as Mullens totaled a line of 25-of-36 for 343 yards and 1 TD. It was both a testament to Mullens’ willingness to throw to whoever is open and Shanahan’s creative deployment of talent regardless of who’s available. By midway through the third Mullens looked incredibly comfortable out there, which is good considering he may have a couple more starts in the coming weeks.

Run Game Woes: Despite paltry rushing stats—our backs combined for only 62 yards on 28 carries at 2.2 ypc—the addition of Kittle on the edge and Mostert’s shot-out-of-cannon burst through the LOS would have made for a much better performance on the ground. McKinnon has been great in the passing game and filled in admirably on the ground, but he doesn’t have the juice of either Mostert or Coleman through the hole and without our star tight end or tailback on the field, the Giants showed a lot of this front in an effort to take away our edges.

Coaches film isn’t up yet so I’m not totally confident in the gap responsibilities here, but the general idea was simple. Load up the line of scrimmage to create one-on-one blocks, extend a stand-up edge defender super wide so that he can’t get hooked, and let your second-level defenders fly unblocked to the hole instead of having to read/react/guess as to which hole the ballcarrier was hitting. You’re basically aiming to take away the double team advantages of zone/stretch while also forcing the running back to a specific hole, rather than letting him choose.

In response to the near-impossible to hook edges, we prodded the interior of the Giants front but to little avail. The two-gappers along the Giants’ interior really held their ground and—while the backs who were healthy enough to play performed admirably—they had little room to run in what was a pretty subpar performance from our interior line. There was some yardage left on the field in terms of missed cutback lanes, although—of all people—rookie JaMycal Hasty started hitting those bend backs once he got in the game. The UDFA showed nice burst and fluid movement in the run and pass game. While improved backfield health will hopefully relegate him to the practice squad moving forward (where we will surely lock him up each week so he doesn’t get poached), Hasty looks like an intriguing rotational weapon in 2021 and beyond. 

YAC Gods Incoming Boiiiiiii: In order to punish the Giants for their employment of run-stopping fronts with six- and seven-defenders on the LOS, the Niners turned to the rookie Brandon Aiyuk. After a full week of practice, he was ready to deliver—including on the first play of the second half.

While not the exact same front as earlier (the Giants are in a two-high safety look here), it uses the same basic principles. Clog gaps on the LOS then fast flow to the point of attack. So this was Shanahan’s counter.

In this set, Dwelley motions across the formation, showing a potential lead stretch look that forces the two linebackers to shift to the strong side of the formation so as not to get outflanked. Most importantly, this isolates Aiyuk on the cornerback at the top of the screen.

The Niners have called a pretty simple run pass option (RPO) here. That means the play call is a RUN with a PASS tag to punish defenses from overcommitting to the run. Unlike a play action, this play can go either way, with the quarterback determining hand-off or pass AFTER the snap based on a lightning-quick read of a read defender. If the defender plays pass, the ball is handed off. If he plays run, the ball is thrown.

In this case, the linebackers are so far from the play they won’t be able to take away the slant, so the read key is the stand-up edge defender, highlighted in red. Due to alignment, Mullens pretty much knows pre-snap that he’s gonna be able to hit Aiyuk on the slant. Since the defender is lined up on the LOS he’d have to drop directly backwards into the slant’s path, and in that unlikely case Aiyuk would have likely just worked around him anyways. Herein lies the weakness with playing this kind of defensive front against us. You’ve committed to taking away every gap at the LOS but that takes you out of position to stop passes to the short alley—an area that the Niners’ offense excels at attacking.

The edge defender and Trent Williams engage, leaving a giant passing lane for Mullens to fit the ball in to Aiyuk, who is able to work his way upfield for an easy first down.

Aiyuk RPO pic.twitter.com/Zpk3pXPIgM

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 28, 2020

Just three plays later the Niners would return to a very similar formation, and the Giants—expecting another isolation slant RPO—had a call in place to theoretically take away that very concept. Unfortunately for them, Shanahan made his play call expecting that very adjustment and was (per usual) one step ahead.

This time we’ve split out Juice into the slot so that the Giants—who are showing a one-high look to defend the run and keep numbers on the LOS—have to decide whether to give support to their backside cornerback or lighten up the box against the run. Here they choose to keep their numbers against the run.

Just like before, Dwelley motions across, making the linebackers bump towards the trips side of the formation.

Unlike the last RPO, this is a straight play action pass—the offensive line will show stretch blocking horizontally but will NOT cross the LOS. They are in pass protection. On the backside, Aiyuk will be running a ten-yard dig instead of the three-step slant. That’s because (A) the Niners want to attack further down the field since they’re employing a six-man protection play action concept, (B) they are correctly expecting the Giants to present a single-high safety instead of a two-high look so as to keep numbers against the run, and (C) Shanahan has rightly assumed that the Giants will be keying backside RPO slant as a means of helping their isolated corner and after getting burned on that very concept to start this drive.

This time the Giants backside edge defender drops into coverage, widening as if to take away a slant or a hitch. I am potentially giving Mullens too much credit here, but in the frame above it seems like he’s even looking wide for a split second, specifically to keep that defender out of his intended passing lane inside. Meanwhile, both linebackers have bit on the play action fake and must bail to coverage. The linebacker closest to Aiyuk committed so much that he has to baseball turn and open to try and take away a dig or post route. Unsurprisingly, he won’t be able to get there in time.

At the bottom of the frame Juice actually looks inside at Mullens. I’m just guessing at this point, but I’d assume this is either to (A) create a very slow-developing heavy commitment to a run block fake in hopes that his man will jump the route and he’ll break open up the field, (B) sell the blocking fake to help the inside linebackers commit to the run, (C) he’s the hot read and can choose to break this route off if he sees a blitzing linebacker, or (D) this is just what a hitch-and-go from the slot looks like out of a run fake when you’re a fullback. I don’t know. These are just guesses. But regardless it’s another testament to the attention to detail this offense employs.

With the Giants trying to take away the backside RPO slant with their edge defender, they’ve now taken away a possible pass rusher to guard nothing but grass. Meanwhile, Mullens gets this gigantic passing lane to throw into, where he hits Aiyuk in stride and the rookie rumbles forward for a 19-yard gain.

Notice at the bottom of the screen Juice makes a mandatory outside release against his defender. He wants that defender to turn AWAY from the intended target, both to minimize the chance he can make a play on the ball and to create more of a runway for potential YAC.

Aiyuk PA Dig pic.twitter.com/jraeeNi2d1

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 28, 2020

To cap this very same drive, Shanahan once again plays against the Giants’ edge-rush stopping formation and their fast flow linebackers by dialing up this reverse, which gave Aiyuk a caravan of three blockers on one poor defender and could have likely been a touchdown from 90 yards out just as easily as 19. Again, he used Aiyuk, and again, it resembled how Deebo was deployed last year.

This is already gonna be too long so I’m not gonna breakdown this reverse, but here we’re selling a power to the left-side of the formation, even pulling Brunskill and having Garland and McGlinchey block down before peeling out to lead on the reverse after their defenders have already committed the wrong way. To get a real sense of the attention to detail of this play and how important Juice is to the offense, watch him from start to finish in this play. It is a wild blocking path.

Brandon Aiyuk goes untouched for the 19-yard TD run! #FTTB

📺: #SFvsNYG on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/9RobDGGsOD pic.twitter.com/ppDN0E1FLV

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2020

With 70 yards receiving on 5 catches and 31 on 3 carries, Aiyuk is getting deeply involved in the offense just as Deebo is set to return. That combo—especially when complemented by the defensive gravitational pull of George Kittle—is going to make for a whole lot of receiver/wing T running back versatility for Shanahan to toy with.

DEFENSE

Let’s give Robert Saleh the credit he deserves. While the Niners’ defensive explosion a year ago is often credited to improved talent and Kris Kocurek coming onboard, this game really showed how the entirety of the defensive unit—both in talent, cohesion, and scheme—has improved over the past two years. Despite being down so many key contributors, the Niners held the Giants without a touchdown, and—considering the opposition never crossed the Niners’ 29-yard line—it was never even close. That’s a testament to Saleh as much as anyone.

Dat D-Line Depth Doe: Down three-ish starters from their front four and with their top bench rusher and a key DT reserve still on the PUP list, the Niners showed that their supposed DL depth was more than just training camp fluff. 

We no longer have the insta-death third-and-long Turbo package, and two sacks and six QB hits may not be an eye-popping number, but the Niners held the Giants backs to 10 carries for 17 yards and—entering the fourth quarter before pulling starters—delivered pressure on 12 of 22 of Daniel Jones’ drop backs. It wasn’t a world-beating performance, but it showed how our pass rush is far from neutered despite the many missing bodies. We have the coaching, the system, and the depth to be able to sustain on defense without a total schematic overhaul. 

Dual Threat Daniel? To my memory, the Giants had four positive plays on offense. A perfectly placed back-shoulder pass and three zone read keepers from Daniel Jones (although the last one was called back on penalty, so the fact that I consider it one of their successful plays says all you need to know about the Giants’ offensive performance this game).

The three zone reads would have gone for 58 combined yards, the last of which moving the ball to the Niners’ 14-yard line before it was called back on a hold. Each zone read was a weak-side pull against Kwon Alexander and Dion Jordan (2x) or Kerry Hyder (1x). While I’m not entirely sure how the Niners choose to play zone read against teams that don’t usually run that concept, it would be smart to have something in place now and get the reps before the quarterbacks get considerably more athletic than Jones.

You could make the argument that every single quarterback we face moving forward—other than Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and maybe Dwayne Haskins—is a bigger run threat than Jones was. That includes Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson (2x), Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Dak Prescott. We’ve struggled thus far against dual-threat quarterbacks. It’s only going to get tougher.

Jason Verrett: After taking over for an injured Ahkello Witherspoon, the veteran got his first start since playing a single healthy game in 2017. Not only did Verrett get through the game healthy, but he played very well as our second and—after Moseley was knocked out—first corner, allowing only nine yards receiving, breaking up a pass, and making a couple key tackles. If he is a starter quality player or better, that would be huge for the depth of our secondary. But for now, congrats to him for simply getting back on the field and having some success after so many years of rehab.

Kyle Nelson WTF: This isn’t defense, but it’s where this section is gonna go. Nine-year veteran and long-time Niner Kyle Nelson had the worst long-snapping game I’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time. He was consistently off the mark, with one bad snap leading to a missed field goal and two snaps being so off they resulted in blown extra point conversion attempts. By the end of the game he was pulled for Justin Skule. Nelson wasn’t injured so it must have been a Markelle Fultzian case of the yips?

In a game where we won by four touchdowns and didn’t attempt a single punt, Nelson’s inaccuracy luckily didn’t matter, but it’s something that needs to get shored up immediately. A blown special teams assignment is the only thing between us and a 3-0 record right now, and games in the near future may come down to those kind of plays.

Misc. Fred Warner continued to cement himself as one of the top linebackers in the league, using film study and a timely pre-snap call out from Jaquiski Tartt to pick off a pass to Engram, and showing his presence versus the run and as a pass rusher… Despite being a part of two zone read pulls, Dion Jordan recovered a fumble and recorded a sack and two QB hits. He may wind up a one-trick pony as a speed rusher off the edge, but if employed the right way, that can still be useful… Fellow edge defender Kerry Hyder tallied a sack and three QB hits. While PFF gave him a low grade on the game, I didn’t notice it on the broadcast. He continued to make his presence felt off the edge… Although he was on the field for 45-of-52 defensive snaps, Kwon Alexander totaled only a single tackle on the day… Dontae Johnson gave up a 23-yard completion then had a bad hold on the very next play, giving me a brief bout of 2017 PTSD. But he broke up a pass two plays later. I’d still prefer if we were healthy enough that he could stick to specials… Marcell Harris played only seven snaps but registered two forced fumbles during that time… both Verrett and McKinnon made their first starts since 2017… former Niner Aldon Smith—now clean and with the Cowboys after years of rehab—tallied four tackles, three sacks, four QB hits, and a pass deflection against the Seahawks on Sunday… Joe Montana and his wife Jennifer stopped a crazy lady from kidnapping their 9 month-old grand daughter from their house in Malibu.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 3 @ Giants

This thumbnail is no longer relevant [Al Bello]

Date: Sunday, 9/27
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: 10AM PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Joe Judge, winner of the most football coach-y name of the year award, comes in as the new head man for the Giants after spending the past seven years working special teams under Bill Belichick and three years prior under Nick Saban at Alabama. This dude’s resume is a crusty old owner’s wet dream. In general, I tend to approve when a team hires a special teams coordinator, even if—as is the case with Judge—I know nearly nothing about them. It’s much less sexy than an offensive or defensive coordinator hire, which implies that the coach actually has to be qualified, and due to that they probably had to coach at a high level for way more years than, say—an upcoming offensive coordinator who had a cup of tea with Sean McVay once—in order to be considered for the job. Also, because there’s no shot that you’re going to call your own plays on offense or defense, you can focus more on the managerial aspects of coaching, and you usually hire some legit coordinators and let them do their thing.

INJURY REPORT (aka SAD!)

This is a screen grab from my phone from The Athletic that shows the Niners’ current injury report:

Of note, this is the most names my screen could capture. Perhaps if I’d ponied up for an iPhone XL, I’d have been able to see the two names that were left off—Jason Verrett and Jalen Hurd.

Speaking of Verrett, let’s start with some good news. Jason Verrett was back at practice on Wednesday and he was a full participant. It’ll be interesting to see who gets the start or if they rotate between him and Witherspoon—who struggled last week—on Sunday… D.J. Jones (ankle) was off the injury report and back to practice on Wednesday on Thursday. He should play… Dre Greenlaw (thigh) practiced Wednesday but not Thursday, which could be precautionary or could be a setback… George Kittle, who is apparently dealing with a bone bruise and a sprained MCL, practiced limited on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering we’ll be on the same turf as last week, both Greenlaw and Kittle are question marks. Let’s not push anything… Jimmy Garoppolo’s high ankle sprain wasn’t as bad as initially expected. Shanahan has said he could play against the Giants, but—again, with the turf and his long-term health is more important than a single early-season game—I’d expect Mullens to get the start. FWIW, Garoppolo didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, which would make a start on Sunday seem highly unlikely… Raheem Mostert has a mild MCL sprain. He’s in Ohio this week for the birth of his second child (congrats!) and is not expected to play on Sunday. Let’s keep that speed speedy and give him at least the week off. Would be nice for his family as well since they have stayed in Ohio out of safety concerns with COVID this year… running mate Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain and will miss “multiple weeks,” meaning we should see UDFA JaMycal Hasty much sooner than we’d anticipated… Richie James is, I think, officially out for this game with a hamstring injury… Dee Ford, whose neck injury turned into a back injury, is out “indefinitely.” Your guess is as good as mine as to when we see him again. It may be quite a while… Richard Sherman and Deebo Samuel remain on short-term IR. Samuel will be eligible to return next week against the Eagles. Sherman the week after that… lastly, Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas’ torn ACLs were both confirmed earlier this week. Both of them will be put on IR and are out the rest of the season. May they both have speedy and full recoveries. To replace them, Dion Jordan has been promoted from the practice squad and Ezekiel Ansah was brought in on a one-year deal. Meanwhile, Damontre Moore, another potential option who the Niners seemed confident would be available if need be, was actually swooped up by the Seahawks earlier this year when I wasn’t paying attention. Sad.

OFFENSE

Running the Giants offense is Jason Garrett, and despite his consistently not-good-enough returns as the head man in Dallas, it’s easy to forget Garrett was one of the hottest coordinators in the business before his promotion. Garrett—like any head coach that Dallas owner Jerry Jones would dare to bring on—is a company man who seems boring as shit. But he wasn’t brought to New York to be interesting, he was hired to tutor second-year quarterback Daniel Jones.

While I’ve knocked the Giants for drafting Jones when they did (and I will continue to do so cause they could have got him considerably later), I actually like Jones as a player and would choose him or Drew Lock to build a team around rather than Dwayne Haskins—the QB who went second to Kyler Murray in that draft. Jones seems like a heady dude who isn’t easily rattled with good accuracy and nice touch all over the field. He’s far from a polished product, his raw stats haven’t been great thus far, and he’s still prone to some ill-timed turnovers, but he projects well, and Garrett will bend over backwards to try and keep him from going down the Josh Rosen/Sam Darnold path of potentially-career-ruining mismanagement. While Garrett’s open admission that he considers “any drive that ends in a kick a success” sounds almost like a caricature of himself (three and outs all end in kicks after all), you can at least understand the conservative nature with a young QB. When it comes to young signal-callers, this isn’t Garrett’s first rodeo, and he probably doesn’t get enough credit for the work he did in shaping former fourth-rounder Dak Prescott into what he is now. Normally I’d say the Giants would likely lean on the run game to protect Jones, but...they don’t really have a run game. So Garrett will likely try to lean on the quick game, using lots of curl-flat and spacing variations to scheme up easy completions, and—if week one is any indicator—relying heavily on shotgun and empty sets to minimize the pass rush, open up the field, and give Jones some single-side two-receiver reads. To be clear, this is not the Jets. They can and will throw the ball down the field if they can protect it.

With Saquon Barkley’s injury, the Giants will be missing their best player in this game, but they realistically hadn’t figured out how to use him in the first two weeks anyways. To replace him they added Devonta Freeman. He’ll play on Sunday, but it will be interesting to see if he’ll have pass protections down by then. If not, his presence will likely signal a run or play action. Surrounding Jones will be a ton of 2’s and 3’s but no real 1’s. Golden Tate is a strong after-the-catch veteran but is certainly on the backend of his career. Tight end Evan Engram has some ability and—after a down year in 2019–the former first-round pick is surely meant to be a reclamation project for Garrett. Second-year wideout Darius Slayton could be in for a breakout season. While they don’t have any clear go-to guys, the worst of the above skill guys is likely better than the best the Jets had to offer by the end of last week. They can find open spots in zones. If given the chance, some of them can even break big plays.

The biggest question lies in the Giants’ offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks and twelve QB hits across their first two games. In their defense, they’ve gone up against two of the better defensive fronts in football in the Steelers and Bears. While it’s hard to say how much of the OL performance is based on overall competency versus strength of opposition, if we can apply similar pressure despite our injuries, then our defense should be in good shape.

Considering our decimated DL, that might mean more blitzing, and while Saleh always seems to dial up a blitz or two at exactly the right time, sending extra bodies is not exactly our strength. Against this OL, perhaps our pass rush will still be strong enough to get by without blitzing. Perhaps not. Perhaps we should be blitzing more regardless as it’s something we’re sure to need down the road with Bosa and Thomas gone for the year and Dee Ford missing indefinitely.

Regardless of how we apply it, if we can maintain pressure on Jones, our defense should be in good shape. The Giants run a methodical kind of attack that lets them string together long drives—against the Steelers they had a 19-play drive that fizzled out after a red zone pick. If they’re allowed to, they have the diversity of talent and play-calling to pepper down the field, chew up clock, and tire out our undermanned DL. Applying pressure to mix up Jones’ reads and mess up his clock is the best way to create the forced passes and late throws underneath that the second-year signal-caller suffers from in spurts.

This is not an overly dynamic offense, but it’s also far from the lowly Jets. They’re not going to explode for 30+ per game, but they have the means of moving the ball and controlling game flow if we let them. Getting them out of sync early will be important so as not to wear out what is already a thin defensive unit.

DEFENSE

Patrick Graham is the new defensive coordinator, and he takes over a group that was—in 2019—pretty good against the run, absolutely horrid against the pass, and overall just not that great. Graham likes to run a multiple front, winning by disguise and variation. He’s shown plenty of four- and three-man fronts in the early goings this season, and—since he and Judge are part of the extended Patriots tree and Graham was DC for the Dolphins last year—they likely want to move to a position-less front seven. But that’s somewhere down the road. Regardless of the front, they typically employ a six man box and five (or more) DBs on the field—giving up the extra size for more versatility. 

Just like the Jets last week, there’s talent and draft capital that’s been put into this defensive line, but it’s shown up much more in the run game. Former 6th overall pick Leonard Williams was their big trade deadline pickup last year. He’s strong against the run but has only 18.5 sacks in 76 career starts in the NFL—including a grand total of half a sack in 16 games last year. Based on the idea that a bit under half of QB hits typically become sacks, you’d think his 103 QB hits during that span would eventually even out, but at this point it seems like he’s a walking exception to the rule who simply doesn’t close. He’s joined by Dalvin Tomlinson and promising 2019 first-rounder Dexter Lawrence, both capable run-stoppers who have so far shown little as pass rushers. If there’s hope for an in-line pass rusher it’s Lorenzo Carter, who’s shown some juice off the edge in the opening games. 

In the off-season the Giants brought in run-stuffer Blake Martinez to man the mike linebacker position of their defense. The Stanford product doesn’t give you a ton in coverage but is strong between the tackles and has flashed as a pass-rusher in the past.

In the secondary, the Giants prefer a 5 DB look with three safeties, choosing to roll down Jabrill Peppers into a box/quasi-linebacker role while keeping the other two deep. At corner, James Bradberry is likely their top guy. He’s not spectacular but isn’t a liability either. 2019 first-round pick DeAndre Baker was supposed to be their other boundary corner, but—after losing big money during a pandemic dice game, robbing the winners at gunpoint, and possibly putting out a hit on the witnesses so that they didn’t testify—he was let go. Hence their other boundary corner is Corey Ballentine, the rookie Darnay Holmes mans the slot, and both have had a rough go of things so far. The cornerback position is a work in progress and a definite weak spot. Undermanned out wide and with our backup quarterback making his first start in over a year, will we be able to take advantage of it?

EMERGENCY NICK MULLENS SECTION

I guess this is about as good a time as ever to get reacquainted with our backup quarterback. Mullens, an UDFA in 2017, got his first career start midway through 2018 against the Oakland Raiders, running train on them in hilarious fashion with 262 passing yards, 3 tugs, and the best QB rating ever in an NFL debut (151.9). Mullens’ debut, on national television nonetheless, was so impressive that he gained a Twitter blue checkmark mid-game. Given the current state of our injury report, let us bask in the glory of that moment for a bit:

Check out player highlights of Nick Mullens debut in Week 9. The Oakland Raiders take on the San Francisco 49ers during Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season. Subscr...

While lacking in ideal size or arm talent, Mullens is a confident dude who—for better or worse—isn’t afraid to rifle passes into tight windows. While he lacks a true deep ball arm, he flashes nice velocity on underneath passes and can get the ball out quickly and decisively. He went 3-5 for a team that was 1-7 without him—including a win over a playoff-bound Seattle team that was vying for seeding position—and is one of the better backup QBs in the league.

If you’re looking for “a play it safe,” quarterback who wants to do “just enough to get by,” Mullens is NOT your guy. His 3.6% interception percentage in 2018 was tied for fourth-highest in the NFL alongside stalwarts—and then fellow rookies—Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold. He also threw a pick and fumbled twice last week. While he’ll surely look smoother with first-team reps in practice, Mullens has a go-get-it mentality. He’s not a game manager. Against a young squad like the Giants that may seem like a potential liability, and perhaps it will be. But in a matchup where we don’t have a talent advantage, Mullens’ aggressive mindset may be necessary to give us a puncher’s chance while we’re down so many of our key parts. As of now it’s impossible to say how much—if any—we’ll see Mullens in the upcoming weeks, but if the Niners want to ride out the 4-6 week high ankle injury timetable before putting Jimmy back in the fray then how Mullens performs could decide whether or not we have a shot at defending the NFC West crown down the stretch.

Anyways, back to the Giants…

With a new coaching staff and scheme, particularly one that is so multiple in its approach, it’s tough to tell what this defense will look like from week-to-week. If I had to guess, their shift towards smaller personnel will help their pass rush but hurt their run defense. Benny Snell rumbled for 113 yards on a healthy 5.9 YPC in the opener, the Bears ran for another 135 on 4.2 YPC last week, and count me as skeptical on the idea of six-man boxes and extra safeties stopping us from absolutely gashing, especially on edge runs. It is very hard for these quasi-box/quasi-alley safeties at 5-7 yards off the line to fill the right hole at the right time against a stretch rushing attack that has ever-changing points of attack, the constant threat of cut back lanes, and employs track stars in the backfield who—by the time they’ve committed to a hole—are firing into the second-level like they’re shot out of a cannon. For reference, the last team to try a 6-man box with safeties filling on the edges against us was the Packers in the playoffs, and well... yeah. If we had Mostert I’d be throwing down money that he’d spring another gigantic TD run in this one, but without him and Coleman, it’s hard to be as confident in scoring game-breaking runs. Regardless, there should be room to run as long as we have our eyes up and are willing to attack the cutback.

Our offensive line should be able to get push in the run game, but they’ll need to protect Mullens better than they did against the Jets—especially since there hasn’t been a backup quarterback in league history who hasn’t gotten the shit blitzed out of him the second he came in the game. While our QBs were efficient in chipping away at the Jets’ zone coverage, they did suffer three sacks and got hit an alarming 11 times. Part of that was Jimmy not being able to move, part of it was the Jets teeing off on Mullens, but—regardless of passing efficiency or defensive scheme—unless we want the Nick Mullens era to quickly give way to the CJ Beathard one, we need to protect our quarterback better in this one. If our OL can pick up the Giants’ various fronts and pass rush stunts, there’s little reason to think the Giants’ back seven will be able to shut down our skill guys—especially with Sanu and (potentially) Kittle added to the fold. A new coaching staff with a multiple defense isn’t the dream first matchup for a backup QB making his first start in over a year, and I’m sure they’ll do everything they can to confuse Mullens with blitz looks and odd coverages. In response, I’d guess the Niners will break him in easy with more single-side reads, quick game, and play action as they figure out what the Giants are doing coverage-wise. From there it’ll be up to Mullens to deliver.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 31, Jets 13

Athleticism and hands? Check. Ball security? TBD [Sarah Stier]

Boring games? Lots of backups? Devastating injuries out of nowhere? And they said there wasn’t gonna be a preseason this year.

But in all seriousness, when you’re comfortable pulling your starting quarterback and running back at halftime despite being up “only” 18 points, you know this one’s a snoozer. That being said, it was a chance for lots of young guys to get a bunch of snaps and gave us a much-needed win—even if it didn’t feel like one given the massive injuries we sustained in the process.

Hello darkness my old friend... We are just two weeks into the season and—by the start of the second half—we were down nine starters, three of them All-Pro talents. We know as much as we can about the PUP and IR guys; as of now it seems like they’re on schedule. George Kittle could likely play this week? Although given the Niners’ outspoken thoughts about the turf at MetLife Stadium, perhaps he’s held out one more week. That turf is likely to dictate decisions on Raheem Mostert and Jimmy Garoppolo as well. Mostert will be in Ohio this week for the birth of his next child. While his injury doesn’t seem severe, the Niners are deep at running back and may not to rush him back on a short week of practice (he probably wouldn’t be practicing anyways) onto the same turf that led to so many injuries this weekend. Jimmy G has the dreaded high-ankle sprain, but—depending on its severity—that’s something that he might be able to play on given his position. I’d expect the Niners to hold him out at least this week, but with a Sunday night matchup looming with an underachieving but very talented Eagles squad, how fast he’s back may in part be based on how well Nick Mullens performs in his stead.

The news seems more dire for Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas, who both—as of this writing—are suspected of having torn ACLs. While Solly wasn’t an elite player along our defensive line, he was named the starter at the three-tech for a reason. Without him, rookie Javon Kinlaw will be forced into a starting role and more snaps—to his credit, Kinlaw has played well thus far—while finally healthy (knock on wood) Kentavius Street and second-year player Kevin Givens will need to take on larger roles. UDFA rookie Darrion Daniels, currently developing on the practice squad, may even get a promotion for depth. Jullian Taylor will come off the PUP list eventually and provide much-needed reinforcements, but as we learned from last year, our defense is greatly affected when it loses rotational pieces along the DL.

As for Bosa, there’s really no replacing the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, elite edge rusher, and preseason favorite for DPOTY. His blend of speed and power is rare, and—when you add in his technical mastery at such a young age—pretty much unheard of across the league. There’s a reason that Bosa, in just his second season, was named the third-best edge rusher in the NFL by a group of execs, coaches, and players. Bosa is likely our best player on defense. Even with a next-man-up philosophy, the Niners will surely have to adjust schematically to generate more pressure, and that’s not something they’ve liked doing in the past. Ronald Blair will return from the PUP list in a matter of weeks, but until then it’s likely that Dion Jordan will see a practice squad promotion or two (if not a full role on the active roster). I’d also expect the Niners to kick the tires on Ezekiel Ansah—who they’ve brought in multiple times this off-season—and potentially Damontre Moore. Expect at least one of them to be signed within the next few days.

OFFENSE

The Jets defense was pretty much as expected. Stout against the run but with questions about their edge speed—a question that we answered pretty clearly on the first play of the game. Other than the 80-yard opener and 55-yard run on third-and-31 (lol), the rest of our carries totaled 47 yards on 27 carries at a paltry 1.7 YPC clip. The passing game was needed in this one, and we were hugely efficient in that regard. 

The pee wee football special: The lead toss was amazing in this one, springing Mostert for an 80-yard TD on this opening play.

Mostert lead toss TD pic.twitter.com/BWCiccacTU

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 21, 2020

Our alignment (twins away from tight end) forces the Jets to set their “true” strong safety (Marcus Maye) to the passing strength. Motion towards the closed tight end makes us “even” again with the goal being to target the three DBs highlighted above in the run game with angles and size advantages.

#30 Bradley McDougald may be lined up as a linebacker but he’s the safety the Jets got from the Seahawks as part of the Jamal Adams trade. He’s got decent size at 6-2 215 pounds, but he’s still a defensive back. In the box. Against our 21 personnel.

I am still amazed every time teams try to start the game like this.

This is our stretch blocking scheme, with two key blocks highlighted in blue.

On the edge, Ross Dwelley is chipping with a mandatory outside release—giving McGlinchey help on the edge defender—as this is the key block to the play. If you miss the hook this play often turns into a tackle for loss before it can even get started.

On the inside Ben Garland made his presence felt early. While our backup center, he’s an excellent athlete and has performed incredibly well for us in the run game. Here he’s tasked with working up to the second level and erasing the mike linebacker as he flows play-side.

At this point, the play-side blocks have been engaged, creating this gigantic running lane for Mostert. They may not know it yet, but the Jets are already screwed.

This is a better look at exactly how screwed the Jets are. It’s also a better look at the extent to which Garland dominated his man.

Since Mostert is Mostert, he was able to burst through the hole before any defenders could adjust or slide off their blocks. Since he is still Mostert, the angles of the two defenders three and five yards down field from him will be roasted in short order. While we’ve got a lot of speed in our backfield, Mostert’s speed is something else. He is unquestionably the biggest homerun threat at running back in the league right now.

Mostert could have had—with no exaggeration—230 yards and three scores on just lead tosses in this game. The 67-yard score called back on an unnecessary hold was a lead toss, as was McKinnon’s third-and-31 conversion (again, lol), which Mostert likely would have housed. Eventually, the Jets did adjust, having their second-line sell hard play-side to penetrate whenever they saw Ross Dwelley in-line and Juice in the backfield. But by then the damage was done. 

Double tight incoming: With so many weapons out, some second-line dudes had a chance to shine. Obviously the biggest standout was Jordan Reed, who looked smooth, caught the ball very well, and looked fresh and athletic in space. Given his injury history, the Niners would like to do a “load management” kind of situation with Reed, but whenever they do decide to employ double tight looks with Kittle and Reed, they’ll have some serious matchup advantages in the passing game.

Aiyuk sighting: Aiyuk was far from a difference-maker in this one but—while his first catch was on a very rookie-like snag on a pass that was likely intended to someone else—he flashed some serious athleticism and YAC ability with the ball in his hands. Something to look forward to for later. Hopefully not too much later. Or just soon.

Jimmy G rebound: Despite suffering what is likely a high-ankle sprain, Garoppolo played incredibly well in this one, completing 14-of-16 for 131 yards and two scores, grading out at an astronomical 99.6 QBR (out of 100), and guiding the Niners to a 21-3 lead entering halftime. It’s a nice bounce back game for Garoppolo—even if it wasn’t against the most intimidating of opponents—so it was a bummer to see him knocked out of the game (even if it gave us a Nick Mullens sighting). We need Jimmy G to get as many reps and as much rhythm going as possible. Despite an uneven performance in week one, the fact still remains that Garoppolo will need to take a step forward this year if we’re to accomplish our goals—especially with a front that is down DeFo and Bosa.

DEFENSE

I get Jets CEO Chris Thompson publicly backing Adam Gase after media concern following the Jets’ opener. After all, no one benefits from going all Jerry Jones and blasting your coach when he’s still your coach. But calling Gase an “offensive genius” is borderline insulting. It’s like when Comcast advertises their incredible service. It’s such a lie and so clearly targets a product’s known weakness as a strength that it almost seems like a troll job aimed at your own fans. 

Quick game: Offensive game plans will certainly adjust now that teams don’t have to account for Bosa, but the Jets did exactly what was expected in this one. They committed to the run game despite average returns and threw almost entirely out of the quick game.

Initially the Jets had some “success” with this game plan. In the first half, Darnold was 9-of-11 for 65 yards, converted a third-down scramble, only suffered a single sack, and—due in part to the Niners blitzing more after losing Bosa and Thomas on near back-to-back plays—was able to find open space underneath while leading the Jets on 11- and 13-play drives into Niners territory. Even though those drives netted just a single field goal and the Jets’ 3.93 YPP in the first half would have been worst in the league over all of last year—0.7 YPP less than the worst offense in 2019, which was... (checks notes) also the Jets—you could at least see how they hoped to stay in this one just by making the game as short and boring as possible. 

But the quick game can only take you so far, and in the second half Saleh and the defense adjusted despite being down to only six defensive linemen. The safeties crept up on their man and curl/flat responsibilities—rightfully disregarding the Jets’ deep threat as anything more than theoretical—and Saleh dialed up a few blitz looks that were setup specifically to take away the quick game outside the hashes.

Armstead bat down pic.twitter.com/pvA1VywWbZ

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 21, 2020

The Niners crowd the LOS here, trying to get a free rusher due to OL confusion. Each of the seven guys on the line will take at least one first step downhill like they’re rushing—in hopes of pulling the attention of a blocker—before the non-rushers peel off into coverage responsibilities.

We’re allowed to show this kind of an aggressive look because (A) it’s third-and-nine so we’re not worried about any underneath stuff as long as long as it’s not chunk plays, (B) the offense has been attacking short game outside the hashes all game, and (C) we’re playing the Jets.

The Jets have dialed up a designed one-man quick out that’s meant to look like a stick route. They’re likely looking at numbers outside (a 3-2 advantage) and believing that two blocks will give their wideout tons of room to run before our high safety can come down and tackle him.

Now, you might be thinking: why are the Jets running a two-yard out on third-and-nine?

As mentioned above, they are the Jets.

Armstead and Warner are the peel-off defenders in this situation. Warner bails to the trips side—potentially in man coverage on the third receiver (kind of hard to tell for sure the coverage given how fast the pass is out, but it looks like man across the board).

Meanwhile, Armstead widens along the line of scrimmage, sliding outside with the goal of reading Darnold’s eyes and feet to get into the passing lane. If the Jets were running a pass concept down the field, Armstead would quickly become useless in this position, but since the Jets have been leaning so heavily on quick game outside the hashes, Saleh has the confidence to call this play and he’s rewarded.

It’s pretty much impossible to see Armstead batting down this pass from this shot, but trust me, it happened. This is the benefit of having a 6-7 former college basketball player on your defensive line.

In response to us keying the short game, Adam Gase—as he is wont to do—didn’t really adjust at all. If you exclude the garbage touchdown drive against our backups, the Jets ran 22 plays for 93 yards in the second half. It was a horrendous showing. 

Kerry Hyder’s emergence: In back-to-back games and—in this one at least—major snaps, Kerry Hyder has really come on as our first defensive end off the bench… although with Bosa out the rest of the year, Hyder won’t be off the bench anymore. For more than a few reasons, it’s a shame that Bosa went down in the fashion that he did. If he (and the Niners as a whole) had better luck, the emergence of Hyder and the impending PUP return of Ronald Blair would have given us a five-deep edge rotation of talented rushers. That kind of depth would have netted a monstrous advantage down the stretch. Alas. 

As it stands now, the Niners are down nine starters, at least three of them All-Pros, and while some players are close to returning and reinforcements may be on the horizon, this certainly takes the damper out of such a resounding win.

That is all.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk 2 @ Jets

Almost certainly their best player, playing the position their former best player used to play [USA Today]

Date: 9/20
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: 10 AM PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

The worst part about playing the Jets is that it means you’re required to watch at least one Jets game this season. But despite their lack of aesthetic appeal, their historically bad injury luck, their young quarterback missing three games with mono (lol), and the fact that they played in a division with two double-digit win teams, the Jets still managed to scrape together a 7-9 record last year on the heels of a 6-2 finish. So perhaps there’s more than meets the eye with this squad? 

Or maybe not.

INJURY REPORT

As of Wednesday: Despite playing all of the second half, George Kittle was diagnosed with a knee sprain after the game. He’s unlikely to practice this week and—while he remains optimistic—his status for the game is unclear… even more shocking—although it explains why they worked out four corners this week—Richard Sherman was placed on short-term IR on Wednesday with what is supposedly a calf injury. He won’t be eligible to return until the Dolphins game in week 5… in his stead, Ahkello Witherspoon is expected to start, that is if he passes the concussion protocol, while Jason Verrett, our would-be next corner up, deals with a hamstring injury. Neither are practicing on Wednesday, but either or both could play Sunday… Richie James’ hamstring injury kept him out of practice on Wednesday. My guess would be he doesn’t play, but there’s a shot… Deebo Samuel, placed on short-term IR before the Cardinals game, will have to sit out two more games. The earliest he’s eligible to return is the early October night game against the Eagles… On the bright side, Ben Garland and Brandon Aiyuk both practiced in full on Wednesday. Barring any setbacks, they seem on track to make their 2020 debuts (or for Aiyuk, his NFL debut) this weekend.

I’m not going to go into the Jets’ injury report except to say the Le’Veon Bell was put on short-term IR with a hamstring injury meaning that the Jets’ starting running back in this game could be… Frank Gore(!!!).

NEW GUYS

On Tuesday the Niners signed receiver Mohamed Sanu to a one-year deal. Last year, Sanu was the guy the Niners were after at the trade deadline but—to our benefit—the Patriots outbid us, and we instead got Emmanuel Sanders. While I wouldn’t hold out hope that Sanu makes a Sanders-like impact, at 6-2, 215 pounds, Sanu is a big-bodied possession receiver who will bring value to the offense with his route-running ability, sure hands, and his physical nature on underneath routes. While not an electric athlete or particularly dynamic with the ball in his hands, he’ll bring a veteran presence to our green receiving corps. 

COVID regulations mean Sanu won’t be able to practice with the Niners until Friday, but he could still see limited snaps this weekend given his knowledge of Shanahan’s playbook from their time together in Atlanta. Once he sees the field, Sanu will likely be a contested catch specialist—taking some snaps at X and perhaps playing some of the big slot role that was envisioned for Jalen Hurd/Jauan Jennings. At the moment, he’s an emergency bandaid for our many injury woes. As our receiving corps returns to health it’s harder to say what his role will be. Finally—while it is way too early to imagine him deeply involved in our offense—it’s worth noting that Sanu has an excellent arm. Whether out of the wildcat or on gadget plays, Sanu has a career passing line of 7-of-8 for 233 yards and 4 touchdowns and a perfect QB rating. 

Just sayin. 

To bolster our dwindling cornerback room, the Niners have officially moved Dontae Johnson up to the active roster (he was a practice squad game day pull-up last Sunday). FWIW, the blocked punt likely wasn’t his fault. Regardless, I am still somewhat terrified of seeing him on defense considering he started all 16 games for us in 2017 and routinely got roasted. He’s had two years since then. I’ll trust the staff that he’s improved vastly during that time. For anyone asking “well why don’t we bring up Tim Harris from the practice squad?”, I was thinking the same thing… until I saw he was put on the practice squad/IR just this week with a calf injury. The Niners added two more CBs to the practice squad to replace Harris and Johnson and scooped up Ken Webster from the Dolphins practice squad and onto our active roster. Webster was a 2019 seventh-round pick by the Patriots, who—after being cut—was picked up by the Dolphins and started 5 games last year. I have never seen him play and have absolutely no idea what he brings to the table. Fingers crossed he doesn’t have to see the field.

DEFENSE

The Jets had one of the worst offenses in the league last year, ranking dead-last in Offensive DVOA, dead-last in passing DVOA, and second-to-last in rushing DVOA (to only the Dolphins, who were purposefully a JV squad for the first half of the year).

If there’s hope it’s that would-be franchise QB Sam Darnold was 9th-best in the league against zone coverage and 32nd against man. That means (a) the Bills and Patriots absolutely took his goddamn lunch, and (b) the Jets probably didn’t have the talent to be good on offense last year anyway (yes, this counts as hope when you’re a Jets fan). Team brass responded by bringing in six new starters on offense, including four(!) new offensive linemen, size-speed ratio boss Denzel Mims, and Breshad Perriman—who had a career year last season in Tampa… but that was as a fourth option in a loaded Bruce Arians offense. These additions, combined with the reliable but unspectacular slot play of Jamison Crowder, the return of tight end Chris Herndon—who showed promise as a rookie before missing all but 18 snaps of last year due to suspension and injury—and a (hopefully) healthy season from Darnold should have the Jets’ offensive arrow pointing up because, well... there is literally no way it could get any worse.

But personnel isn’t the only problem. Under Gase, the Jets have had the pleasure of an offense that is both stubborn and predictable—leading to one of the single-worst early-down success rates in the league and an average third down distance coming in at 8.1(!) yards to go. That is not a combo you want. All last year the Jets were awful on first down, which set up second-and-longs where they’d usually go into heavy personnel and—despite all data saying that you should pass on second-and-long—call an unsuccessful run play, which would in turn lead to them getting wrecked on third-and-long. It was a vicious cycle and one that Gase seemed uninterested in stopping.

Ultimately, this is a group of skill players that you need to scheme open, and the Jets just have not created many easy completions. Darnold’s raw stats may be ugly, but he actually ranked 15th in the league in output over expected completion percentage (there’s that Jets hope again), but his expected completion percentage was a meager 36th of 39 qualifiers. You’d think play action would help, but out of their heavy sets the Jets were near the bottom of the league in terms of pass-likelihood, and when they did throw out of 12, 13, or 21 personnel, they typically did it from under center—this despite Darnold having otherworldly production (on small sample sizes) when throwing from those sets out of the gun (12.0 YPA and a near-perfect 156.3 QB rating). 

But perhaps the Jets are trying to change. In week one, they seemed to lean more gun-heavy with the intent of opening things up a bit. While that may give them some long-term hope, it clearly didn’t amount to much against the Bills. The Jets totaled 254 yards of offense on 4.8 YPP, 69 of which came on this short catch and run to Jamison Crowder. 

Jamison Crowder goes 69-yards to the 🏠

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/L0y5RMDJx2

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 13, 2020

On passes with air travel upwards of 15 yards, the Jets were 1-for-6 with an interception last week. On throws over 30 yards IN HIS CAREER Darnold is 6-30 with four touchdowns and three picks. With that in mind and their top tailback injured, I’d expect them to try and dink-and-dunk against us—hoping for better success against our defense as we blitz less and play more zone. Even without Sherman, I’d expect the Niners to stress fundamentals and tendencies in this game after a sloppy finish against the Cardinals. Our DL missed DeFo in the opener; against a Jets’ OL that’s still getting settled, we need a good showing upfront if our team’s going to have anywhere near the ceiling that we’d like to this year.

Despite having potential, Darnold has—all the way since college—consistently been a turnover machine, especially when trying to freelance while under pressure. Given this fact, plus Gase’s predictability and the likelihood for long downs and distances, a well-timed blitz or two could pay dividends. Darnold fumbled 11 times in only 13 games last year, so if he scrambles look for more Kwon Alexander karate chop action (despite some issues last week, Kwon does create splash plays and forced at least two fumbles against the Cards). In general, I think all three of our linebackers will have to play well, as they’ll be tasked with handling a lot of underneath work and their coverage skills will be even more important with our corners banged up. With the injuries we have at the position, the Jets will surely try and test our boundaries, but it’s TBD if they have the talent to do so. Hopefully our strength in the front seven and deep zone scheme on the back-end will take the pressure off our new corners. Overall, this is still their weakness versus our strength, so it should be a game where we can iron out some kinks, adjust to what we want to do differently this year on defense, and settle down after last week’s late-game struggles.

DEFENSE

In contrast to the Jets’ offense, the defense impressed in its first year under Gregg Williams. While the D—just like the team’s overall record—benefited from an easy schedule that included facing only three teams in the top 14 in passing DVOA all year, the Jets still finished the season 11th in Defensive DVOA, 20th in Passing DVOA, and 2nd in Rushing DVOA. This was despite being the most injury-affected defense in the league.

Give Gregg Williams credit. Sure, he is almost certainly a douche, and looks like a bad guy from a nineties teen movie, and—given the fact that he’s coached for 7 teams in the past 12 years—probably hard to work with; and yeah, while he was with the Saints he put out bounties on our players during the 2012 playoffs and later wrote it off as “nothing that hadn’t been done before;” and okay, when the Browns fired their head coach and offensive coordinator and promoted Williams to interim HC simply because he was the only warm body left, he may have taken the time—in his very first press conference as HC—to boast/probably lie about how, despite his 17-31 career record, he was in such high demand that he’d received 11 head coaching offers, four of which said he “didn’t even have to interview, just show up and sign the contract.” Despite all that… ah, I forgot what I was gonna say.  

Williams runs an aggressive 3-4 zone-blitzing scheme. Last year he sent extra dudes at the fourth-highest rate in the league, succeeding both when his defense blitzed and when it bluffed looks pre-snap to bait bad throws underneath. In almost direct contrast to our scheme, which uses a four-man pass rush with little blitzing and alternates deep coverage looks to take away the big play first, the Jets—while running the fifth-most zone coverage in the league—ran considerably more Cover 2 than Cover 4. While we choose to rally up from deep-to-short, they’re hunting for turnovers by crowding the shorter zones and trusting that their extra rushers will get home before they can get beat over the top with the deep ball.

Their run defense is the unit’s obvious strength, which is impressive considering the Jets ran their nickel defense for 77% of their snaps in 2019, a strategy which both mitigated the loss of free agent linebacker CJ Moseley—who missed all but two games last year then opted out of this season—and got Brian Poole—one of the best nickel corners in the game—on the field more often. They were able to play small while excelling against the run because (a) they have a strong, big-bodied DL that ranked best in the league in terms of adjusted line yards against the run, and (b) they had swiss-army knife Jamal Adams who played mostly around the LOS.

In addition to his ability against the run and in coverage, Adams was second on the team in sacks last season and led all Jets in QB hits. There’s some hope that rookie DE Jabari Zuniga could become a pass rush presence sooner rather than later, but he got put on IR on Monday. There’s also optimism that Quinnen Williams, last year’s 3rd overall pick, will add some pressure capability with the increased maturation and slimmed-down frame that he’s sported this off-season, but that didn’t translate in the opener. Realistically, replacing Adams will largely rely on how Marcus Maye—the team’s second-best defensive player last year—takes over Adams’ old role near the LOS. With 10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2 pass deflections, and a forced fumble in the opener, the results have been largely positive. Losing Adams may not be as big a blow as expected, and their run defense at least—after holding the Bills running backs to 2.3 YPC in the opener—seems to be just as stout as last year.

However, against the pass there are question marks, the biggest of which being the team’s cornerbacks. Other than Poole, the Jets are relying on Blessaun “someone’s parents liked God” Austin—a potential breakout second-rounder who performed well as a rookie—and Pierre Desir—who was just jettisoned from the Colts one year into a three-year extension. The group is unproven and just allowed Bills receivers to account for 23 receptions and 247 yards of Josh Allen’s career-high 312 passing yards last week. It would be nice to test them in the passing game. We’ll see if we have enough healthy bodies out wide to do so.

While it would be nice to have a week 2 foe that we could easily shred on the ground and hit over the top for some confidence-boosting play action bombs (see: 2019 Bengals), we’re going to have to execute to consistently move the ball in this one. This defense could actually be good. While Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and (checks notes) Ryan Fitzpatrick(?) all had success as running quarterbacks against this defense, the Jets haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher (Ezekiel Elliott) since week 6 of last year. They’re big and stout against the run but have pass rush questions and potential coverage issues in their back seven. This is a game where we may need to pass to open up the running game, and with a zone blitz scheme that likes to send extra rushers and drop underneath defenders into unexpected spots (aka the 2019 Jimmy G interception blueprint), our offense would benefit in a big way if our quarterback can muster a bounce back game on the road.

The Niners are considerably more talented than the Jets. After last week’s disappointment, this would be a great chance to make that abundantly clear. But in order to make this game delightfully boring and drama-free, our offense—and in particular our passing game—will have to be much more in sync than it was last week. The laundry list of injuries, but they can either be something that derails us as a team or an opportunity for backups to get valuable snaps—which in turn gives us more depth as the season goes on. Let’s hope it’s the latter.

Go Niners 👍🏈