Preview: Wk5 vs. Dolphins
This man went to Harvard
Opponent: Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/11
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally
Despite their laughable start to last season—which included an 0-7 start and getting out scored 16-133 in their first three games—the Miami Dolphins rebounded quite well down the stretch. After first-year head coach Brian Flores successfully installed his system and got players to buy in, the Dolphins—despite being woefully out-talented on all fronts—finished 3-2 in their last five games, including wins over the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.
Loaded with draft picks and flush with cap space, the Dolphins committed to a speedy turnaround this off-season, drafting 11 players (five in the first 56 picks) and spending a whopping $237 million in free agency. I’m bull-ish on this team in the long-term. Presently, they’re not a powerhouse but they’re far from a pushover. They just hung in tight with the Seahawks until deep into the fourth quarter, have played tough in each week of a difficult opening schedule, and are a must-win contest if we want to stay in playoff contention.
INJURY REPORT
Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) were all back at practice this week, although each of them were limited. Seems like there’s a chance that all four play. I’d guess Mostert is the least likely, but don’t set your fantasy rosters based on that… at cornerback, Dontae Johnson (groin) sat out practice while Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) remains in the protocol… hopefully he’s alright… K’Waun Williams (knee) was just put on short-term IR, and Richard Sherman (calf) is eligible to return to practice this week but Shanahan has said he likely won’t be back until the Rams game at the earliest. A potential bright spot is that long-hyped-by-me practice squadder Tim Harris is off IR. If there’s a silver lining to a potentially depleted cornerback corps, it’s that maybe we can finally get a quick glimpse of Harris.
OFFENSE
Last year’s Dolphins ranked 28th in offensive DVOA, 24th in passing, and dead-last in rushing. Like every other AFC East offense, they sucked. In an attempt to rectify that, the Fins made wholesale changes on the offensive end.
The Dolphins OL allowed a league-worst 58 sacks last year; their adjusted line yardage was—by a gigantic margin—also worst in the league (the difference between their mark and second-to-last was greater than the difference between the second-to-last and 12th-ranked lines). In the off-season they reloaded the line with four new starters, poaching New England’s long-time backup and 2019 starting center Ted Karras, swooping guard Ereck Flowers from the Racial Slurs, and starting rookies at guard and tackle. Unsurprisingly, it’s not a lights out group, but—at least in the passing game—they’re able to hide things schematically.
Chad O’Shea, long-time Patriots wide receiver coach, is out after a single season as the Dolphins’ OC—replaced by Chan Gailey, former OC of the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills (for some reason all AFC East teams can only hire other AFC East coaches). While Gailey is the Ryan Fitzpatrick whisperer—having coached him to success in both New York and Buffalo—he was likely brought on more because the offenses he used to run share similarities with the NFL’s current trends—namely they use lots of 3- and 4-receiver sets and RPOs, which future signal caller Tua Tagovailoa was the GOAT at in college. The hope is that Gailey can bring out more Fitzmagic than Fitztragic and establish a foundation for Tua’s eventual ascension. So far this season, Fitzpatrick hasn’t scratched Fitzmagic levels, but he’s kept them in ball games with quick, high-percentage throws.
At the skill positions, this is a team with a lot of size that’s lacking in underneath separation. Fitzpatrick will be throwing to two jumbo receivers on the outside in Preston Williams (6-4, 210 lbs.) and DeVante Parker (6-3, 216 lbs.). Williams was a nice surprise as a rookie last year while the former first-rounder Parker—after years of hype, injuries, and failed expectations—finally broke out in his fifth year as a pro with 1,202 yards and 9 scores on a healthy 16.7 yards per catch. Filling out the rest of the 11 and 10 personnel packages are Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford—your standard quick underneath guys that every team seems to have an abundance of but don’t really move the needle one way or another. At tight end, Mike Gesicki is another giant target for Fitzpatrick, and one who has played well this season, but he’s yet to get involved in the offense on a consistent basis. The Dolphins didn’t add any wideouts in free agency or the draft, their only acquisition being a trade for third-rounder Lynn Bowden who is talented, raw, potentially troublesome (hence why he was traded), and certainly not ready to see the field against us beyond some potential wildcatt-y stuff due to our issues guarding the zone read. Speaking of zone read, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually much more mobile than you probably thought. He averages 5+ carries per game, has already rushed for 115 yards and two scores on the ground, and will absolutely be a pain in the ass both in designed runs and off-script ones.
The Dolphins want to spread the field, throw quick game, pass-to-run, and rely on their quarterback’s feet to convert some third downs. That is the blueprint for annoyance against our zone-heavy, dual-threat susceptible defense, and could be a game flow nightmare if we’re not putting them behind the sticks (for example, they had a 17-play, 73-yard drive that took 7:59 off the clock and ended with a field goal against the Seahawks). However, they lack the talent up front or the explosive potential to threaten outside of their dink-and-dunk comfort zone, so if we can generate pressure on a hit-or-miss offensive line and contest balls at the catch point against their jumbo pass catchers, we should generate enough third-and-longs to make things difficult on a team that relies almost entirely on long, plodding drives.
So far this season, Fitzpatrick has been exactly what the Dolphins need him to be, a bridge to delay the deployment of Tua. But when he can’t read the defense confidently and get the ball out quick, his middling arm talent shows, he can start to force things, and we increase the chances of summoning Fitztragic, his interception-prone and greatly preferred alter ego.
DEFENSE
Defense is Flores’ specialty, but that hasn’t translated to Miami yet. A long-term assistant for the New England Patriots, Shanalynch actually interviewed Flores for the Niners’ DC position while he was in New England (before he was calling their plays). Two years later—and fresh off a masterful neutering of the Rams’ offense in the Super Bowl—he was named head coach of the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have seen a massive overhaul on D as they try to fit an assortment of parts into a position-less hybrid 3-4 front that has the secondary talent to run man coverage on the backend. New additions Emmanuel Ogbah (Cleveland), Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), and Kyle Van Noy (New England) make up their edge/second-line tweener group while high draft picks like Raekwon Davis (2020 second-rounder) and Christian Wilkins (2019 first-rounder) are the core of their true down linemen. We’ve all seen what happens to Patriots players when they leave Foxborough, but... if anyone can get similar production from Van Noy it’s likely Flores. Lawson and Ogbah are intriguing pieces; both have shown flashes but neither ever developed into that pure edge rusher that so many teams are looking for. The Dolphins’ hope is that their skillsets will shine brighter in a more hybrid scheme but as of now they’ve yet to find their pass rush.
The Dolphins have pumped big money into their secondary, with their two starting boundary corners making a combined $31.5M/year in average annual salary. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones make up a formidable duo on the outside and testing them through the air isn’t likely to be a big part of our game plan. Howard has largely returned to form after a down 2019; Jones has missed the last few weeks with a groin injury but is expected to return against the Niners. If he doesn’t, rookie replacement Noah Igbinoghene has been burnt toast all year (ranking 111st out of 112 qualifying corners per PFF) and both he and slot corner Nik Needham should be targeted whenever possible.
Against man coverage and two top corners on the boundaries, the Niners will likely show some condensed sets, bunch formations, and motion to confuse assignments and move our outside playmakers away from Howard and Jones. Our tight ends and backs will have a chance to win one-on-one matchups in this one, both at their normal positions and split out wide in more pass-heavy looks as safeties and linebackers bounce out to guard them. The Dolphins are talented on the boundaries but their slot corners and linebackers have had issues in coverage. That’s not a great formula for stopping us. After what Kittle did to Philadelphia, I’d have to assume the Fins roll A LOT of extra coverage his way, attempting to use multiple looks, bracket coverages, and rotating defenders to try and offset the talent gap with variety. This will either fail, and he’ll still dominate, or work enough that other guys get plenty of advantageous looks. We can only hope the answer is both.
Until someone DOESN’T run it against us, I’d expect to see the wide-aligned edge defenders that we’ve faced in every matchup this year. Since those edge guys will often be stand-up linebackers they’ll likely try to disrupt our outside run game and disguise drops into the flats and short alley to take away potential backside slant/RPO situations. This would be a nice week to thin out those loaded boxes with the quick passing game, fix some issues on the OL, and throw down a trademark run game explosion so our offense has some momentum moving forward. By practically any statistic imaginable the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in football this year. They are certainly the worst defense we’ve faced and the worst rushing defense by a mile. Jumping out early would be huge against a Dolphins team that has made a habit of hanging on late with more talented squads. Mostert or no Mostert, Jimmy G or no Jimmy G, this is a matchup where our offense needs to impress.
After the Dolphins, we head into a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined 22-6 record, a run that includes matchups against half of the league’s remaining unbeaten teams. Even with the expanded playoffs, entering that two-month stretch with a 2-3 record would put us in a mighty big hole to climb out of. Let’s avoid that.
Go Niners 👍🏈