Welcome: McKivitz, Woerner, Jennings
Physicality is the buzzword on their LinkedIn profiles
![Looking for smaller humans to eat [WVUsports.com]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1592590875472-7NA5SDAY4HH889G4XDHB/colton_mckivitz1_vs_nc_state_by_ken_inness_.jpg)
Looking for smaller humans to eat [WVUsports.com]
Round 5, Pick 153: OT, Colton McKivitz, West Virginia
A right tackle for most of his career who also moonlighted a bit at guard, McKivitz was moved to left tackle for the 2019 season and flourished, garnering second-team All-American honors and being named Co-Big 12 OL of the year alongside Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey (a potential first-round draft pick next year).
A self-described “civilized redneck,” McKivitz was a four-year starter for the Mountaineers (47 starts are third-most in school history), which means a lot of experience and a whole lot of sightings of Matt McKivitz, his dad, who became low-key famous for his homemade game day hats.
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Even the rando in the back has questions.
As an offensive lineman for a team that I didn’t watch and who has no All-22 film, I don’t really know anything else about him. But this is the general consensus from a combination of draft experts…
McKivitz has good height for a tackle (6-6, 306 pounds) but his relatively shorter arms made some teams peg him as a guard only. When in-line, he’s got good body control and has decent feet, but despite his basketball background, his lack of ideal hip flexibility and knee bend means he plays too upright at times, which can result in struggles in space and on the second level. But he’s got heavy hands, a strong upper body to lock onto defenders, and a mean streak that shows in how he finishes his blocks — a trait which should endear him quickly to any offensive line coach.
While that breakdown may not seem like a player who’s a perfect athletic fit for our outside zone scheme, McKivitz’s consistency, intelligence, and work ethic are all top notch. Shanahan’s offense is notoriously complicated, and smarts along the offensive line is something the Niners prioritize more so than most. As a near-50 game starter who was capable of playing all five positions along the offensive line at West Virginia and garnered major post-season honors despite playing on an offense that ranked 119th out of 130 FBS teams in yards per game, McKivitz is a blue-chipper between the ears and as good a bet as any to grasp the mental side of things in a hurry. Plus, his positional flexibility means he’s got swing value as a backup across the line.
Lynch seems awful high on him, talking like he was a potential option to start at left tackle if the Trent Williams deal didn’t go through. While I wouldn’t go that far, this staff has proven that they know what they want in offensive linemen and can develop those players. McGlinchey is a rock, Justin Skule played much better than any sixth-round rookie should have last year, Laken Tomlinson was a theoretical bust before settling into his role as a steady performer at left guard, Daniel Brunskill was picked from the AAF, excelled at two positions, and may start in 2020, and even Weston Richburg—when healthy to start last year—has excelled (it’s just the durability and ensuing salary that are questionable). If any Niners position room other than running back gets the benefit of the doubt when acquiring players it’s the offensive line.
While McKivitz and Skule are both heady prospects with physical limitations that project them better as swing tackles than starters, McKivitz has more high-end production to his name and his mean streak in the run game should give him the versatility to bounce inside. While his high-end experience and intelligence give him a shot to contribute beyond his athletic limitations, for now, McKivitz will slate in somewhere in our swing tackle rotation and as a backup guard with the potential for more down the road. Perhaps, as soon as next year, when the uncertain status of Trent Williams’ contract could leave Shon Coleman, Skule, and McKivitz (plus any new additions) vying for the starting left tackle spot of the future.
Round 6, Pick 190: TE, Charlie Woerner, Georgia
A four-star prospect out of high school, recruiting sites were unanimous in his praise but mixed on where to put him. Depending on who you asked he was listed as an athlete, tight end, or receiver, but always a consensus top 100-150 prospect. While that profile typically lends itself to big, tall guys whose lack of blocking ability mean they’re eventually moved out wide to an X receiver and are listed as a “tight end” in name only, Woerner’s career went the exact opposite direction.
Playing in Georgia’s conservative, run-heavy (and bad) offense, Woerner became the Bulldogs’ blocking specialist, lining up inline, as a wing, in the slot, or even out wide, but doing so mostly to pave the way as a run blocker. His 34-376-1 receiving line is for his career, not a single season, and even if it were the latter, it would still be pretty meh, but his blocking ability shows up on tape and should translate to the next level.
While not particularly exciting, there aren’t many college tight ends with NFL size who have the athleticism, technique, and mentality in the run game as Woerner’s shown on tape. That should translate particularly well to our offense, as he’s shown the ability to pull-off a number of difficult blocks from all over the field.
Here he is in the slot, road-grading a safety (Jalen Elliott, UDFA to the Lions) on a stretch play…
Or out of the wing, with a second-level arc block like we ask out of our split stretch looks…
Or a simple effective down block on one of Notre Dame’s highly-touted defensive ends.
Considering the difficult paths and blocking angles that we ask Kittle and Juice to pull off to spring our potent run game, it’s clear to see how Woerner could fit as a sub/backup for the former and perhaps also the latter.
But what does he bring as a receiver? As a former top 150 wideout who ran a solid 4.78 forty at the combine and has nearly the exact same height and weight as Kittle, it’s easy to hope that Georgia’s stale offense (much like Iowa’s) depressed Woerner’s stats and he could be in for a breakthrough. But unfortunately, that seems pretty unlikely. First off, Kittle is much much more athletic than Woerner. Second, when you watch Woerner’s tape you see a guy who has decent straight line speed but is the opposite of dynamic in the open field. He lacks separation, doesn’t change up his route tempo to set up defenders, shows little wiggle in his game, and makes short, choppy steps to slow down and change directions. In fact, he actually looks stiffer as a receiver than he does as a blocker. Maybe Jon Embree can unlock something in him, but it would require a top-down rebuild of how he moves as a receiver.
So while there’s certainly a chance for Shanahan to scheme him open off play action passes, Woerner was brought in more to replace Levine Toilolo and Garrett Celek. He is first, foremost, and likely almost exclusively a blocking tight end. And while his relative lack of size (6-4.5, 244 pounds) makes it seem like he’s better suited for duties on the wing, in the slot, or potentially even in the backfield, he’s a gritty dude with some time to pack on weight; he’ll find a way to make it work inline against power ends too.
With tight end depth an off-season priority, Woerner’s strong value on special teams, and the fact that two of the four tight ends from last year have either departed (Toilolo) or retired (Celek), Woerner will be given every chance to make the roster, and his blocking likely gives him a leg-up on the higher-upside, more-receiver-leaning Daniel Helm in the competition for the third tight end spot. Unless the Niners decide to keep four tight ends on the active roster (which they did last year but while Celek was on the PUP list), the loser of said battle will likely be stashed on the practice squad.
7th Round, Pick 217: WR, Jauan Jennings, Tennessee
For the second straight year we’ve snagged one of PFF’s biggest draft steals in the last two rounds (Tim Harris, 6th round), but in this case the prospect’s fall was (mostly) due to factors outside of his injury history.
At 6-3, 215 pounds, Jennings is immediately one of our bigger wideouts, and he actually plays larger and nastier than his size would indicate. He lined up inside and out for the Volunteers and is, without a doubt, one of the toughest and most physical receivers in the country (so much so that—like Jalen Hurd last year—he was his team’s wildcat quarterback). He translates that physicality to the passing game as well, where his tough running and leg churn make him incredibly difficult to tackle in the open field. While Aiyuk led the nation in yards after the catch, Jauan Jennings led all FBS receivers in broken tackles (30), and it’s not hard to see why.
While his lackluster combine showing certainly hurt his stock (4.72 forty, 29” vertical), he does a better job of getting separation and creating after the catch than those numbers would indicate. He turns up field quick, has a natural sense of space, and—again—is hard to tackle unless you get a full body on him. Thus, he’s got the spacial awareness and vision to fall forward and get hidden yards with or without contact.
When the ball’s in the air, Jennings shows nice adjustment skills. He’s got enough hip fluidity to snag passes outside of his frame and make plays in bad-ball and contested catch situations, and he uses his size well to wall off defenders both on slants and plays down the field—making him particularly intriguing in the red zone.
So why was Jennings available in the seventh round? Well… a loaded wideout class didn’t help. There was clearly going to be some value found in the later rounds if you were flexible enough in what you were looking for. And while he plays faster than his testing numbers, his top speed is just adequate. He’s a long-strider, not particularly sudden, and is far from an easy athlete like Raheem Mostert or Brandon Aiyuk (guys who can accelerate with a burst that seems like they’re barely even trying). Jennings’ separation is never going to be great, and he’ll have to clean up his route running and movement efficiency in order to get open in the NFL. He also missed the entirety of the 2017 season due to a fractured wrist in the opener that led to a redshirt.
But the main reason Jennings slipped was due to questions about “emotional maturity.” In draft circles, that term is thrown around a lot, and it can mean a number of different things. Sometimes it means that a player is lazy, or that they lack a pro-like preparation and training outlook, or simply that they have yet to tap into their potential because they’re young and still haven’t bought into the idea that they can’t get by on physical talent alone. In general, scouts are asking if the player is ready to go from a college kid to a professional and deal with everything that comes with that jump. Sometimes it’s just about no longer being a college kid, and the red flag is forgotten the second the player steps into a pro locker room and becomes more serious about his craft. Other times, the accumulation of problems lead to an immediate flameout (Joe Williams). In Jennings’ case, I’m leaning towards (and hoping for) the former, but here’s what we’re dealing with.
At the end of the 2017 season, Jennings was kicked off the team after he went on an expletive-filled social media rant about the Tennessee coaches. During the IG video, he accused the staff of being “lying-ass, fake-ass, snake-ass” coaches after they’d apparently led him to believe he’d be able to play in the season finale but held him out anyway. While the coaching staff was fired soon after and Jennings was reinstated by Jeremy Pruitt when he took over the job, that’s still a red flag. It’s also not aided by the fact that—at the end of the 2019 season—Jennings was suspended for the first half of the bowl game for engaging in the long-standing Volunteer tradition of stepping on the head of another player (which he claimed to be an accident). Thus many scouts consider him—in the parlance of a lieutenant in an eighties cop movie—a “loose cannon.”
Now, is there some context to these issues? Sure. In the video, he’d been out since week one with a wrist injury, and it’s not out of the question that the coaches—given this was a staff led by known piece of shit Butch Jones—were stringing him along in his rehab with the pitch of him playing in the final week of the season despite never intending to actually let him on the field. After all, this is the same staff that Jalen Hurd—after 26 touchdowns over three years—approached to switch from RB to WR, and—after their steadfast denial—he chose to transfer to Baylor and sit out a year. If Jennings was never going to play regardless of how hard he worked in rehab and how much he pushed himself, then yeah, frustrations are understandable. Also, when Jones and interim Brady Hoke were let go at the end of the year, new coach Jeremy Pruitt came in and asked every single player on the team if they really needed Jauan on the team moving into 2018. The answer was unanimously yes, and so he was reinstated. As for the head stomp?
Who knows. You could see how it could be unintentional as he’s turning with someone grabbing on him. Or you could see how it was intentional as he was pissed off at the dude he just tackled who he was clearly jawing with on the ground. We’re in Draymond territory here (although I will contest Draymond should not have been suspended in the playoffs and that the Warriors got fucked in multiple ways that series).
Either way, Jennings brings some risk, and while his draft slot and the specifics of his red flags make him a less risky proposition than, say… a quarterback with a known gambling problem that everyone hates (Johnny Manziel) or someone with a history of legal problems, it’s at least worth tempering expectations given the question marks.
In terms of fit, I would expect Jennings to be groomed mostly in the same role as Jalen Hurd—a big slot who hybrids like a wideout/tight end. While smaller than Hurd and not the same blocker, Jennings is a much more polished receiver, and it’s easy to see how his style will make for a quick transition to the position. His profile screams physical overachiever. The Niners want guys who can bang inside the box and consistently swallow up defensive backs in the run game, as well as a receiver-leaning sub for when Kittle takes a break or is working in-line or out of the wing, and Jennings could provide just that. I’d also expect him and Hurd to get some reps at X receiver, particularly in the red zone. The Niners like Bourne there a lot, but it’s not hard to see how the size of Hurd and Jennings could have a few different roles inside the twenties.
Injuries to both Deebo Samuel and Richie James throw a wrench in what was already set to be an excellent wide receiver competition once the Niners report in July. One or both of the injured players could be back by the beginning of the season—and James was likely on the outside of the roster looking in—but the injuries make it more likely that the Niners enter this season with seven wideouts. Samuel, Bourne, and Aiyuk are locks. Hurd is likely as well. If Trent Taylor is actually healthy, he should be good, but if injuries flare up then his traditional slot receiver spot could go to Travis Benjamin or UDFA Chris Finke. Forgotten man Dante Pettis could still see a third-year resurgence, which we should be hoping for even more now with Samuel hurt. If all of that goes according to chalk, then we’d still have Jennings, Benjamin, Poindexter, Thompson, and James competing for a seventh roster spot. In that case, Jennings likely has the edge since he presents a more unique positional fit, but we’re a long ways away from roster cut downs, and a fully healthy Jalen Hurd could relegate him to the practice squad to start the year.
Welcome: WR, Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
Toasting defenders like these GIFs toast your internet connection
![With the ball, in space, his natural habitat [Sundevils.com]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1588981081297-DHDLW8DN4IFPJCX57CLT/aiyuk+photo.jpeg)
With the ball, in space, his natural habitat [Sundevils.com]
It’s not crazy that the Niners had Brandon Aiyuk as their No.1 wideout in the draft. This class had a lot of receiver depth but just as much debate about its pecking order. Henry Ruggs (#12 to Raiders) has the athletic ceiling but also many of the question marks that come with any speedster projected for a No.1 role beyond his college production. Jerry Jeudy (#15 to Broncos) has all the production you can ask for, but his shaky hands and skinny frame make you wonder how some of his play style and production will translate to the pros. And CeeDee Lamb — the receiver the Niners admitted was neck-and-neck with Aiyuk at the top of their rankings — has production, jump-ball ability, and elite YAC skills, but lacks the quickness and speed that gives Aiyuk just slightly more athletic upside.
In the end, I had Aiyuk rated as the fourth-best wideout, but also the one who I wanted the most. That’s because (A) he is such a perfect schematic fit and a player whose arrow is clearly pointing upward, (B) he was clearly going to be around longer than any of the consensus top three wideouts, and (C) my dream was a first round of Derrick Brown/Tristan Wirfs and Aiyuk. Granted, that dream was before I knew Joe Staley was retiring and that we were deep in talks for Trent Williams. And it was a dream built off of a potentially ludicrous hope that Brunskill can shape himself into a plus starter at center by 2021 and that Wirfs at 13 and Aiyuk at 31 was a possibility, which… I’ll get to later, but in retrospect seems unlikely.
Anyways…
GTFO Man
Good Evaluation: Per usual, this is TBD until we see him on the field. Scouting report will be at the bottom.
Top Tier: A+. The Niners said both Kinlaw and Aiyuk were in their top six “foundational players” in this draft. With that said, and Aiyuk ranked as their top receiver, getting him at 25 is clearly a home run based off of their board.
Fills Need: A. From my POV, this was the only position where we absolutely NEEDED to find a new starter during the draft (this excluding left tackle of course because it wasn’t public knowledge that Staley would be retiring until Trent Williams was acquired).
Optimizes Slot Value: B. Aiyuk at 25 is far from a stretch so determining this grade means answering two questions: (1) Does it make sense to trade up in a draft that is so deep with wide receiver talent, particularly in the 20-50 pick range, instead of tapping that depth with a later pick? (aka is Aiyuk THAT much better than the dudes who were drafted after him?); and (2) would Aiyuk have been around at 31 if the Niners had stayed pat?
For the first question, it’s important to note that while there were plenty of available wideouts with similar-ish grades to Aiyuk, he was not only the consensus #5 wideout based on the (potentially pointless) opinions of most draft pundits but also the last prospect who could do what the Niners wanted from this pick: fill Emmanuel Sanders’ role as a Z-receiver with the versatility to line up inside or out.
Anyone who says “the Niners could have waited and gotten Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman” really does not have a strong understanding of the Niners’ offense or the role that they were looking to fill. Those guys are pure X receivers. Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool, both also drafted in the second round, are pure X receivers. KJ Hamler is a pure slot. Laviska Shenault can move all over a formation, but he will require a lot of development to become even a second option in the passing game. Van Jefferson should be plug-and-play in the pros, but he may have already hit his ceiling. Aiyuk was absolutely the last dude left on the board who you could be confident to ask to come in and play major minutes all over the formation AND have the upside of a No.1 receiver.
The second question is a bit trickier. In hindsight, if Aiyuk was going to be there at 31 then moving up to get him was clearly a bad move. So would he have been there?
It’s been floated that the Niners traded up to 25 to cut off the Packers, who were high on Aiyuk and would have picked him if he was available. While it's impossible to know if the Pack would have selected Aiyuk or Love at 26 if both were on the board, believing there was interest from the Packers — who hadn’t drafted an offensive skill player in the first round of the draft since Aaron Rodgers, who had been in deep pre-draft talks with Aiyuk, and who clearly lack a No.2 wideout — was totally reasonable.
It’s also been said that the Dolphins, who had just acquired a rookie quarterback, are totally devoid of skill players outside of DeVante Parker, and immediately traded out of the 26th pick after the Niners selected Aiyuk, would have taken Aiyuk a pick later if the Niners hadn't traded up. Or even the Ravens, who wound up drafting wideouts in the third and sixth round (although as both project more as slot receivers this one seems the least likely of the three).
ESPN's Seth Walder has been highly critical of the trade and has referenced a 59% chance that Aiyuk would have been there based on the fuzzy, potentially made-up math behind "ESPN's Draft Predictor Machine." ("only a 3% chance of catching that ball but he did? Oh fuck, I love it when ESPN throws meaningless stats at me!"). But Walder's basing this claim on some combination of the idea that Aiyuk is considerably worse than the top three wideouts and that the wideouts picked in the second round are talent and scheme equivalents, a flawed theory that I've already discussed. According to any NFL Draft Valuation Chart, the trade (based on points) was, if anything, slightly to moderately favorable for the Niners, and — while you all know my love for obtaining more picks — that chart (theoretically) accounts for the loss in hit chances due to decreased pick quantity.
Based on my own made-up numbers, I would say there was a 27.68% chance of Aiyuk being there at 31. So while it's totally fair to critique the trade and the packaging of picks to "go get your guy" mentality that has hurt the Niners in the past (Dante Pettis, Joe Williams, etc.), if the team wanted Kinlaw AND Aiyuk, they most likely had to trade up to get it done. And even if they didn’t, it made perfect sense that they thought they did.
Thus, the B grade.
Manages Future Capital: C. If Aiyuk kills it then, again, this is the least important part of the puzzle, and we’ll happily sacrifice the capital loss for on-field performance. But godDAMN it would have been nice to have (at least) that fourth-rounder back.
That pick (and the late fifth-rounder) would have given us a shot at an abundance of cornerbacks — from developmental boundary guys to promising nickels who could play right away — any and all types of interior line support, and a wide selection of tight ends with legit receiving chops who could have excelled in a backup role for Kittle.
Harrison Bryant, last year’s Mackey Award winner, would go two slots before our would-have-been pick in the fourth. Colby Parkinson, seam-stretching tight end out of Stanford, went later in the round (and to the Seahawks). Josiah Scott, a highly accomplished corner whose lack of size projects him as a potentially starting-caliber nickel corner, went just a few picks later. And Bryce Hall, who led the FBS in pass deflections as a junior and was a fringe first-rounder before a serious ankle injury, could be a future stud outside (and we could have gotten him with our fifth-round pick as he went a few slots after McKivitz)
As has been repeated ad nauseam, you hit more targets with more bullets. And while having two first-round picks is great, it’s important to note their hit ratio. League-wide, first-rounders only get their fifth-year option picked up 61% of the time, and up until Arik Armstead signed this off-season, do you know who the last 49ers first-round pick was who was inked to a multi-year extension off their rookie deal?
Patrick Willis in 2011 (drafted in 2007).
More bullets. More targets.
BIO
At 5-11.5 and 205 pounds with an 81-inch wingspan (80-inches at the combine so… there is human error here somewhere, but regardless his arms are long!), Aiyuk has a build that gives him some of the strengths of both a smaller and a bigger receiver without the weaknesses (like Blade. You guys remember Blade?).
With his smaller stature, it’s easier for him to be quicker out of breaks, change direction, and move in the open field, which will all be critically important both in our offense and the inside-outside role that he will be groomed to play. While his long arms — one of the longest in this year’s class and just one inch shorter than the 6’5 Calvin Johnson’s — allow him to high point jump balls, give him a catch radius of a much larger receiver, and can be a very useful weapon against press coverage.
COLLEGE CAREER
A high school running back, Aiyuk started his college career at Sierra Canyon CC, where he played wide receiver and cornerback as a freshman before transitioning fully to offense and scoring 18 touchdowns (14 receiving, 1 rushing, 2 KR, 1 PR) before moving to the D-1 ranks.
Aiyuk had a wave of suitors near signing day (many, like Alabama, had missed out on high school prospects), but he stuck to his early commitment to ASU. In his first year playing behind 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry, Aiyuk was slow to come on but finished the season strong, putting up nearly 2/3 of his production in the last four games of the year, when he averaged 5.5 catches and 74 yards/contest.
As the No.1 receiver last year, Aiyuk fully broke out with 65 - 1,192 - 8TDs on a whopping 18.3 yards per catch, totals that were good for 37% of the Sun Devils' passing yardage and 38% of its passing touchdowns; this despite Aiyuk sitting out their bowl game to prep for the draft. He also returned kicks, averaging 31.9 yards/kick and 16.1 yards/punt (including one score).
SCOUTING REPORT
Let's start with what makes Aiyuk such an incredibly great fit for our offense: Yards After Catch. Depending on what statistical breakdown you follow, he either led the entire FBS in YAC average (11.1 YAC/catch) or was really damn close to it.
And while he ran an unimpressive 4.50 at the combine, it's worth noting that was shortly before undergoing core muscle surgery, and he looks considerably faster on tape. It's also worth noting that he still had a 40" vertical on that day and that explosiveness shows in his breakaway burst in the open field.
Top speed is great but it's the ability to accelerate to it in a hurry and the knowledge of when to use it that helps create separation in the NFL and bust angles after the catch. Like in this clip against WSU:
Aiyuk's top speed looks plenty good there, but it's that angle-breaking burst the second he gets the ball that -- when combined with the loose hips that let him bend away from contact as he turns upfield in a hurry -- beats the corner to the spot and busts the safety's pursuit angle en route to an 86-yard touchdown.
Or, against Colorado, it's that burst and hip turn that turns a dig into a deep score.
But Aiyuk doesn't need a clear runway to the endzone to excel after the catch, as his understanding of pursuit angles and open space allows him to generate extra yardage all over the field.
Often what makes a guy a possession receiver versus a threat with the ball in his hands isn't just speed and burst, it's the spatial awareness to immediately know where the open field is and the skill to best exploit a defensive player's positioning to get there.
Aiyuk has that in spades, and it shows up both in the big plays...
And the smaller ones.
Most receivers could get 2-3 yards after that catch with a quick upfield turn into contact. But Aiyuk finds the space, exploits defensive positioning, and tacks on an additional 10 yards instead. With the Niners' emphasis on creating chunk gains, both Aiyuk's knack for the big-play and his ability to find hidden yardage underneath will be relied upon early and often.
In terms of getting him the ball in the first place, Aiyuk has strong, natural hands and can pluck the ball out of the air with ease, but he tends to let too many passes into his body. That’s part of what’s led to some concentration drops. According to PFF he had six drops and only two contested catches last year, and while part of that was the system the Sun Devils ran, it’s still a worrisome stat. The idea of him using that wingspan and 40” vertical to play much bigger than his size and win 50/50 balls is currently more theoretical than practical, and while he may never have to be a dominant jump ball threat (although… plz become that), he will have to consistently catch the ball with contact on slants and digs. Again, it’s not something he’s proven he CAN’T do, but it’s also not something he’s proven he CAN do.
His route running is in a similar vein, but with more positive data. Aiyuk has the quickness, smooth hips, and change of direction skills to develop into an excellent route runner, but at ASU, he got a lot of his yardage on slants, screens, and vertical routes. However, as the season progressed and he was asked to run a more complex route tree, he showed out well, and even in his “Four-S” routes (streak, slant, screen, shallow), he’s shown the ability to adapt to defenders with subtle moves that aren’t necessarily in the play call.
Down four in the fourth quarter against MSU, Aiyuk plays off the corner’s inside leverage, showing a nice inside stem and jab step before bursting outside down the sideline on a vertical route (and would-be go ahead touchdown if the ball wasn’t so under thrown).
And in the fourth quarter against Oregon, Aiyuk was tasked with another simple vertical route. But after reading the corner and seeing he was itching for a big play…
...Aiyuk threw in a single stutter step, hit the turbo button down the sideline, plucked the ball cleanly out of the air, and outran one of the best secondaries in the nation (in PFF’s ranking of college football’s top 30 returning DBs, four are from Oregon) and scored the game-sealing TD that kept Oregon out of the CFP last year.
Those are big plays in big moments that show the on-the-fly adaptability that you need to excel in the NFL. And, even if he hasn’t shown that 50/50 ability on tape, they also show his potential as a true vertical threat.
But the savvy and potential as a route runner are seen in more than just his 9-routes. While he lined up mostly outside in college, he’s shown intelligence and nuance out of the slot as well. Here he destroys a linebacker’s clear inside leverage with a great stem, outside lean, and head fake before breaking wide open inside for a solid gain.
The routes need work and repetitions, but there's just enough freelancing and savvy to his game to make you think he can master the little nuances that are hard to teach while polishing the more coachable aspects of route running. Which is largely the same way I’d describe his releases.
Lynch has gone on record saying that what ultimately led to Aiyuk being ranked over CeeDee Lamb was the fact that he was quicker, both in getting separation and releasing off the LOS.
So let's look at those releases.
Here he is on the goal line, getting that early separation that Emmanuel Sanders was so good at. Aiyuk is patient to not get open too soon, shows foot quickness, shoulder lean, and just enough of an outside jab step to get the DB on his back heel and his shoulders turned so that Aiyuk can slip underneath untouched for the score.
Here, in a move that (sigh) greatly resembles the releases that Davante Adams and Sammy Watkins used to beat Sherman in the playoffs, Aiyuk uses an explosive outside step to feign a 9-route with a "go" release, turning the corner's hips before using his foot quickness and hands to gain immediate inside leverage. Then he (mostly off-screen) uses a "shove by" to get wide open on an out route. This is a good example of both his diversity of releases and how his route running and polish drastically improved by the end of the season.
But it's not always that pretty. Like most college wideouts, he has had his issues against the press, letting corners get up into his shoulder pads both on the LOS and down the route despite his solid weight and significant arm length advantage.
In this first clip, he’s simply way too late with his hands, as they never come up and he gets hit in the mouth because of it.
While in this second clip, not only does he once again allow the DB’s punch to get his shoulders back and his pads raised, but he fails to disengage down the field, totally disrupting the path and timing of his route.
Like a prizefighter prone to getting knocked out, he simply keeps his hands down too often for too long on the press. With the amount of bump-and-run he’s likely to see, he’ll need to get better at this VERY quickly in order to see major minutes in 2020.
Much like with jump balls, he has all the talent, athleticism, and wingspan to become a master at beating the press, but, like with jump balls, he still needs to put it together and show it on tape. Which is really the story of Aiyuk at this moment. He does a couple things very very well and has the potential to do practically everything at that level, but he’ll need coaching and polish to get there.
It’ll be up to him and our coaches to make sure that the explosive upward trajectory in which he ended last season bleeds smoothly into the beginning of his rookie year. If that’s the case, a Deebo-ish developmental path is not out of the question.
Fit With Niners
While Aiyuk was brought in to replace the departed Emmo Sanders, his role as a rookie might look a bit different. And due to that, the Niners' receiving rotation could look a lot different than in 2019.
With 540 of Aiyuk's 655 snaps coming outside versus in the slot, I think that's where he starts out, playing both Z and X while getting some manufactured touches both inside and out with Four-S routes and reverses. The Niners' goal will be to get him in space, and -- based on Shanahan's track record -- I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they'll succeed in that goal. But with Bourne established at the X, Pettis a question mark, and Deebo a moveable chess piece that can play everywhere from Z to whatever the NFL-equivalent of an old Wing-T wingback is, we'll still need more pure slots. Theoretically, we should have plenty to choose from.
If healthy, Trent Taylor is our standard slot receiver and -- if he performs as he did as a rookie and in training camp -- he could be quite the valuable addition to our offense. A lot of "ifs" there, which is likely why Travis Benjamin was brought in as injury insurance. Meanwhile, the recovering Jalen Hurd and seventh-round sleeper Jauan Jennings both profile as big slots, providing tremendous size and power in the alleyway. And of course, there's Kittle, the ultimate mismatch, who also extends into the slot from time to time.
After our drop-laden loss to Seattle last year, our receiver rotation tightened up to three bodies: Sanders, Deebo, and Bourne. Based both on Sanders' departure and the fact that IR and the draft have given us four (practically) new additions to the receiving corps, I would expect a lot more rotation in 2020. While potentially troublesome for fantasy teams, that could be very interesting for us.
Because while I would argue that Shanahan has been the best play-caller in the NFL since at least his last season in Atlanta, he's still never had the personnel, injury luck, or team-building input to structure an offense in exactly the way he would like. Until (hopefully) now. Adding Aiyuk was ultimately done to replace Sanders, but with Aiyuk's YAC ability, he can do some of the things Deebo can as well. How will teams guard against a stable of wideouts who can win match-ups outside or motion into a wingback and take an inside handoff on a fuggin tackle trap at any moment? Or jumbo slots who can stretch linebackers into space in the passing game on one play then block down on them to clear an off-tackle run on the next? All the while worrying about the only NFL fullback who people still know by name and the world's best tight end?
The mismatch potential and versatility of Shanahan's big slot/wingback experiment is tantalizing. And while the hope is that Aiyuk can slide smoothly into Emmo's snap count in 2020, if all else goes according to plan, perhaps he doesn't have to quite yet.
But it would be a lot cooler if he did.
P.S. He also returns kicks.
Welcome: DT, Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
Very large and hopefully soon to be in charge
![Perfecting the “I’m at the club, and I know that guy across the room” celebration [USA Today]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1588290468243-RWBRDZP20U9P1PP6E3X1/kinlaw+icon.jpg)
Perfecting the “I’m at the club, and I know that guy across the room” celebration [USA Today]
The first of our deep dives into our incredibly small 2020 draft class. I’ll be using the GTFO Man rating system to evaluate the pick then go in-depth on the player and how they’ll be used at the bottom of the post.
Spoiler Alert: this is a Solomon Thomas situation. All the draft maneuvering was done perfectly, they got who they wanted, and they added draft capital by trading down a slot. Whether this turns out to be a slam dunk or a giant missed opportunity on Wirfs/Jeudy/Lamb is going to be dependent on whether or not Kinlaw’s play matches his tremendous physical ability.
GTFO Man
Good Evaluation: As always, this grade is TBD until they actually play, but will take a look at the bottom.
Top Tier: A+. The Niners said Friday morning that both Kinlaw and their second first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk were among the "six foundational players" that they'd seen while evaluating this draft. So given that, this is a no brainer.
Fills Need: A-. With so many starters and key backups returning, there were really only two positions (or three, if you count right guard) where a rookie could come in and start right away. Three-tech was one of them.
Our current options at the position are rotational players, stop-gap options, guys coming off injury, and/or guys who are "too young to tell." As a prospect, Kinlaw dwarfs all of the above, and as an added bonus there isn't THAT much developmental overlap (i.e. bringing in a new guy hindering the development of another young guy; like if we were to draft a corner here and then bench Moseley without knowing how good he could become). Solly has had plenty of time to prove himself, Taylor is coming off a late-season ACL injury, and asking Givens to go practice squad-to-starter would be a lot in year two.
So realistically, the grade should be an A. The only reason I'm giving an A- is that this pick lends more credence to the idea that everyone along our defensive line needs to be a great player and that we will ALWAYS be spending high picks on defensive linemen to accomplish that. We have now spent three of four of John Lynch/Shanahan's first-round picks (picks 3, 2, and 14 overall) on defensive linemen, despite already having two or more first-round picks spent on the position group at the time of each selection. More defensive linemen play rotational roles than really any other position on our roster, so I understand that we'll always be on the hunt for depth and eventual starter-level replacements. But obviously, there are sustainability issues if we're always spending our highest pick there. When there are classes that are weaker along the defensive line, when we have fewer first-round picks, and/or when we have bigger roster holes that we need to address, committing so strongly to the defensive line won't be possible. At some point we need to be able to field a strong defense without complete and utter dominance along the D-line.
To be fair, there are extenuating circumstances that imply this may be the end of our constant big-time capital expenditure at the position. Solly didn't pan out as expected, Armstead didn't breakthrough as a pass rusher until last year -- after Bosa and Ford were added -- and DeFo leaving not only takes away our All-Pro three-tech but also puts us in a position where one of his backups (Sheldon Day) is gone, and nose tackle DJ Jones, three-tech Solly, and occasional interior rusher Ronald Blair all have their contracts up at the end of the year.
In general, it's more frustrating than it is unreasonable, largely because the draft fell in almost perfect fashion for what we wanted and players like Tristan Wirfs, Jerry Jeudy, and CeeDee Lamb were all available at 13. But ultimately, you can understand -- given their incredibly high grade on Kinlaw -- the decision to spend another giant chunk of capital on the position group.
The hope is it's the last time we spend that type of capital at the position for quite some time.
Optimizes Slot Value: A-. Sliding down one spot, adding a pick, and still getting the player you wanted -- a player who could have gone in the top ten and no one would have batted an eye -- is always a slam dunk.
It's only an A- because -- in an ideal world -- we could have moved down further. With the pick after us the Broncos were clearly going wideout (so clearly that they've already drafted two wideouts as I type this) and were also rumored to be moving up in the draft. It's incredibly nit-picky, and I would assume the reason why the Niners took their entire draft clock to make the pick at 14 was that they were indeed trying to move down again (it takes two to tango after all). But in a draft where we desperately needed picks, it would have been nice. We got a fourth-rounder to move down one spot, but moving down two or three could have potentially netted a late third-rounder (with a late round pick in return) or even two fourths.
Manages Future Capital: A. Gaining a fourth-round pick for what is functionally nothing. That'll play.
Bio
Javon Kinlaw is clearly a large man, but it’s surprising quite how big he really is and how well he carries that weight. While two inches shorter than DeFo and 30 pounds(!) heavier, he certainly doesn’t look it. Like Deebo, he’ll have to work in the NFL to keep his weight in check, but also like Deebo, you want him playing as heavy as he can without it limiting his movement skills. You combine Kinlaw’s size with long arms (34 7/8” wingspan lands somewhere between DeFo and former Gumby prototype Aldon Smith), truly elite physical tools, and a highly-respected work ethic stemming from an absolutely absurd story of growing up homeless in D.C., and it's easy to see the All-Pro potential.
The youngest of three boys, Kinlaw moved around between D.C., Mississippi, and South Carolina in his youth, spending part of that time homeless after the age of ten, when his mother, a Trinidadian immigrant, was fired and they lost their apartment. During that time, Kinlaw and his brothers would steal snacks from CVS, hop turnstiles to ride the metro all day just to stay warm, walk over dead bodies in D.C.(!), and bounce between friends' houses and basements -- some lacking electricity or where the only running water was from a neighbor's garden hose:
Per an interview with Tom Huddleston Jr. of CNBC:
“We had a gas stove,” Kinlaw said. “We would light the stove with a little match or something, get a tall pot, boil the water, mix it with some cold water, put it in a bucket, take it upstairs, take a shower like that.”
Part-way through his freshman year, his mom sent him to South Carolina to live with his dad to have a better opportunity in a safer area. Since then he grew a whole heckuva lot and shaped himself into the player / prospect / mountain of a man that he is today. And now his father, a long-time Niner fan, has become internet famous for his post-draft reaction:
Obviously Kinlaw is a dude you can easily root for, and that work ethic will be necessary as he has a decent amount of development to do if he’s going to maximize his incredible physical tools.
College Career
In three years at South Carolina, Kinlaw started 34 of 37 possible games, being named the Gamecocks' DPOTY in each of the past two years and garnering First-Team All-American recognition in 2019. His production during that time does not jump off the page (18 TFLs, 10.3 sacks) but if you watch a full game of tape it's clear there were mitigating circumstances. You see, Kinlaw is the first South Carolina defensive lineman to be drafted since 2014 (Jadeveon Clowney) and only the second defensive player taken during that time (defensive back Rashad Fenton went in the 6th round last year). He was a bit of a one-man wrecking crew on defense.
While a Bama defensive lineman or a player like Derrick Brown, whose partner on the interior DL was drafted in the second round this year, had teammates who could punish offenses for double teaming, South Carolina definitely did not. So naturally, entire offensive gameplans went out of their way to double team and avoid Kinlaw for all four quarters.
Take Kentucky for example, a game in which Kinlaw recorded only a single tackle. What doesn't show on the stat sheet is that he lived in the backfield in the first quarter and disrupted the Wildcats' offense so much that, from the second quarter on, I saw only 2 or 3 snaps where he wasn't double-teamed. While there's plenty of refinement needed to Kinlaw's game and he needs to be much more consistent, the media and coaches were able to see his impact during awards season. I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of top-tier college production given the circumstances.
Scouting Report
Let's talk about the physical tools. In terms of speed and power, the man is practically a cheat code. His first step is truly unfair for a man who is, again, 6-5, 324 pounds.
Take a look at this snap against North Carolina:
Kinlaw is the nose tackle in the center of the frame. He's the guy who's not only firing off while everyone else is still in their stance, but he's already engaged before the ball is even halfway through the air to the quarterback. His snap-timing isn't consistent, but when he hits it, he is alarmingly fast off the line. At times he simply shoots through a gap untouched, which seems nearly impossible given his size…
Granted, those quick shots through a gap often come with balance issues, as seen in the play above, which is a trend for him. At times he sacrifices his position and leverage for a chance to make a play. That could be while shooting a gap (granted, he did still make the play in this case), or when he gets stood up and his pads turned because he's tried to slip to the side instead of holding his ground. With improved discipline, the hope is that we can harness that first step speed without leaving open lanes inside.
When someone does try to block Kinlaw, he shows a powerful punch and a great straight arm, using his length and tremendous strength to keep offensive linemen off of his body. Against the pass, it's a good starting spot to set-up pass rush moves and can transition effortlessly into his monstrous bull rush, which can put linemen on skates in a hurry.
Here he is (above the right guard) using his bull rush to embarrass a 350-pound redshirt senior from Alabama…
And (above left guard) showing the sustained power he brings, despite a “double team” from Georgia…
His straight-arm also allows him to read-and-react in the run game, where he shows the lateral agility of a much smaller player as he slides down the line and collapses gaps. He keeps his head up and does a good job finding the ball, even if you'd like if he were to track play flow just a tick faster. While he is likely too tall and his body type too long to become a monster double-team eater, he's got all the traits to become an excellent stacking-and-shedding presence in the run game.
In terms of his pass rush toolkit, Kinlaw has a solid chuck-and-rip move and uses his long arms on a surprisingly agile swim (over left guard)...
And while his mechanics aren't the cleanest, there's plenty of potential for them to get there. In part because his rare big man agility allows him the flexibility and hips of a much smaller player. In part because he ragdolls a lot of very large men with his big-time punching power (over right guard).
That kind of ability to force an overset and then chuck a guard out of position with violent punches and yank downs is a great building block for any number of pass rush maneuvers.
He needs to clean up his technique and get more efficient in his movements (pretty much across the board), but those are all coachable areas, and Kinlaw is known as a very coachable and hard-working player. For me the question lies in the two traits that are the hardest to project in defensive line prospects: instincts and pass rush fluidity.
Sometimes a player's instincts improve after a new coach explains things differently, or, with increased field experience, that player develops a new level of comfort in reading and reacting before plays develop. But you can't always teach the mental-processing speed to decipher keys and reads and the confidence required to trigger into action before a play develops. Sometimes a player has just gotten by on physical skills and will never have great instincts, no matter how hard they try. Yes, players can take big steps forward, but relying on instinctual improvement is and will always be a bit of a crapshoot. Kinlaw isn't amazing in that regard, but he's not bad either. There’s certainly hope that he can close the gap, and if he can’t then at least it's not as important along the interior as it would be at say, inside linebacker. This isn't my main worry...
Regardless of how much you teach pass rush moves and the technique required to execute them, the ability to string together multiple moves and counter on the fly is something that some players have and some players don't. Every defensive lineman comes in with a pass rush plan and every offensive lineman has a plan to counteract that, and when the first attempt doesn't work, how quickly and effectively you move to your counterattacks is often what separates Pro Bowl performers from first-round busts. That was the #1 reason why Nick Bosa had such an incredibly high floor coming out of college. He was a hand-fighting technician who already showed the ability to execute a move and then -- when an offensive lineman countered or adjusted over the course of a game -- move fluidly into an effective counterattack without having to think. Kinlaw has a couple moves. He has the potential to have a couple really good moves. But he has not yet shown the ability to string them together when his first attempt is stopped.
With professional reps, a greater technical proficiency, and a better understanding of how these moves string together, can he get there? Absolutely. But regardless of work ethic or coaching, this is always the gamble you make when you take a player who hasn't yet shown that ability on film.
Fit with Niners
Kinlaw is a three-tech in our defense, where his size and speed will find more one-on-one matchups and his length and upright playing style will be less exposed to double teams. He’ll get his reps in 2020 but it’s hard to say how impactful this rookie class will be given the many questions as to mini-camps and off-season preparation based on COVID stuff. Regardless, Kinlaw’s not a plug-and-play starter who should be expected to slide into the massive snap count left in DeFo’s wake. He's got some developing to do before he can take on that kind of workload.
While his tools seem perfect for the attacking style of play of our Wide 9, you wonder if he can keep himself in control enough to develop his instincts and refine his eyes and technique or if he gets caught up in the aggressive nature of the scheme and it hinders him long-term. It’s an odd balance having a player who is perfect for a certain scheme but who also might have benefited starting his career in a less aggressive scheme and/or as two-gapping end where he can read, react, and develop his fundamentals. Luckily, Kocurek is one of the best DL coaches in the business and we have enough depth at the position that we can play other bodies there if he starts developing too many bad habits early.
All that being said, he still should lead the team in snaps at the three-tech. To start, I would guess he plays mostly on passing downs, although I might be worried about lane integrity against the Russell Wilson and Kyler Murrays of the world, while rotating more with Solly and whoever else is healthy at DT on run downs.
Due to the surrounding talent we have on our defensive line, it’s equally likely that Kinlaw has an Aldon Smith-like rookie year of incredible efficiency as the coaches pick-and-choose his deployment to match his strengths or that Coronavirus issues delay his development. Considering our aggressive approach to ring-chasing in 2020, the hope is that he starts showing out sooner rather than later.
Draft Recap: All-in for 2020 (and hopefully after that too)
Realistically could have fit the entire class in this picture
![Wingspan warriors [49ers.com]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1588095391156-A51LSJTN51JO489VVGDB/draft+trio.jpg)
Wingspan warriors [49ers.com]
A lot of coordinators can't cut it as head coaches because (among other things) they fail to respect and develop the opposing side of the ball. Offensive coordinators neglect defensive starters in lieu of a fourth wideout who will undoubtedly fail to live up to his lofty forty time while defensive coordinators continually assemble overlapping front seven pieces while running an offensive scheme that resembles the Big Ten in the 70's during a snowstorm. At the very least, we don't have to worry about that with ShanaLynch.
For the third time in four years, the Niners went defensive line with their first-round pick, reinforcing the idea that they need front four talent to field a high-level defense, while they can manufacture more offensive success through a collection of lower-priced schematic fits.
But this draft -- which was inordinately busy given the paltry number of selections we had -- also reaffirmed that the Niners are doubling down in a few other ways.
Run it Back
We are committed to getting back to the Super Bowl in 2020. With an off-season that featured two major departures (DeFo, Emmo) but otherwise little roster turnover (we cut our starting guard, let a rotational DT leave), this team only really had two positions where a young player could come in and immediately get major reps. We filled both of them in the first round.
This is a team that got really good at least a year earlier than scheduled and since then has been committed to chasing a ring. Our decisions this weekend have helped that cause. At least for 2020.
YAC Yards 4Ever
Given how deep and versatile this receiver class was, how we approached filling Emmo's shoes was going to shed light on what type of receiver corps Shanahan wanted to develop. If we got Mims or Pittman, two bigger purely outside X receivers, then we were looking for wideouts with clear and specific roles that they could specialize in. If we got Ruggs or Reagor we were prioritizing take-off-the-top vertical speed so that we could threaten defenses deep. If we got Shenault or Bowden, two less-developed swiss army knives, then we were moving more towards a "Warriors on grass" kind of set up where we could deploy a handful of versatile positionless weapons. By drafting Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, the clear plan is to double down on YAC yardage.
Aiyuk led the nation in yards after catch, averaging an absurd 11.1 YAC / reception, a mark that is doubly impressive considering he was the clear No.1 target on the offense of a Top 40-ish Power 5 program. While Aiyuk did most of his damage with speed, burst, and open field running, Jennings did so with rare power, as his 30 broken tackles led all FBS receivers in 2019. In addition, both wideouts help improve one of our offense’s biggest weaknesses. They have vertical chops.
This focus on YAC makes sense given our rushing attack, Shanahan's ability to scheme up RPOs and backside slants to get receivers in space, and Jimmy G's comfort-level in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Thus, our wideout additions were able to keep our offensive identity largely intact, while (hopefully) addressing one our offense’s biggest limitations in 2019.
No DBs
For back-to-back years, outside pundits have had defensive back as a problem position for the Niners entering the draft, and for back-to-back drafts, the Niners declined to draft any early defensive back help (with 2019 sixth-rounder Tim Harris being the only DB drafted in 13 combined picks). Due to the high number of DBs that play both on special teams and on defense in any given year and the tentative contract situation of most of our secondary, I would expect that to change next year. But the Niners’ reluctance to tap this draft class for a defensive back could allude to the fact that they must think highly of the youngsters currently on roster. Which would obviously help us next year, and — perhaps more importantly — the year after.
Kittle by Committee
Whether it was Austin Hooper or Jordan Reed, the Niners kicked the tires on a number of different tight ends throughout the off-season. And while the majority of free agents and draft prospects they chatted with were catch-first guys who often lacked in the blocking department, the Niners decided to address the need in a different way on draft day: taking snaps out of Kittle’s hands with a committee approach.
6th-round Georgia tight end Charlie Woerner is known mostly, if not entirely, for his effort and blocking ability, particularly at odd angles and on the move. While not much of a receiving threat, his versatile blocking ability means he can be groomed to absorb blocking snaps from Juice and Kittle. While Jauan Jennings, discussed above, profiles as a big slot, where he will backup / compete with Jalen Hurd for duties that require a particular blend of jumbo, tough receiver and in-the-box blocker — duties that Kittle, without a big slot on the roster, typically had to take on himself in 2019.
With the new additions of (functionally) three new rookies, all who can spell Kittle at different locations and roles on the field, the Niners can rest easy knowing there will be a player (or two) who can give their star tight end a rest and preserve his body for the long haul.
Getting Their Guys
For better or worse, the Niners have shown a propensity to go out of their way to target “their guys,” flipping mid-round picks to move up and get their top tier players in the first. If these players pan out, then yes, it’s a no-brainer to go up and select two of your highest-rated players. But this is nearly the exact same scenario that unfolded in 2017 when the Niners traded down one spot to pick Solomon Thomas and then used one of those additional picks to trade up into the bottom of the first and take Reuben Foster. Let’s hope it works out better this time.
But the “getting their guy” mindset clearly worked out with the trade for Trent Williams. Despite their successes starting a handful of games at tackle in 2019, I doubt any of us were thrilled at the idea of Justin Skule or Daniel Brunskill immediately protecting Jimmy G’s blindside for an entire season. Or the oft-injured and largely unproven Shon Coleman. Or the incredibly unproven 5th-round rookie Colton McKivitz. If he stays healthy and shakes off the rust, Trent Williams is a top 5 NFL tackle who is familiar with the scheme, but he’s also entering the final year of his contract.
If Williams excels and wants to stay, it’s hard to say how much he’ll get paid as he’ll be 32 before the 2020 season begins. Just last year, Trent Brown, then 26, signed a contract that paid him $16.5M/year, and Lane Johnson, then 29, signed a deal that gives him $18M/year. Laremy Tunsil just got an extension that pays him $22M/year but he’s 25 and that was the Texans, and you can’t really use them as a measuring stick for any rational management decisions. It’s not unreasonable to expect a then-33-year-old Williams to take something closer to Brown/Johnson’s rate for a three-or-four year extension. And it wouldn’t be unreasonable to hope that the time away from football has let his body heal and that he’d be able to play out the length of that contract at a high level.
At this point that’s all a guessing game. If he excels and we can pay him then great. If he excels but is too rich for our blood, then we’ll hopefully have groomed a replacement by then and will likely net a 2022 third-round comp pick when he leaves. Ultimately, the risks are well-worth the reward, especially given the immediate need and modest price point.
Clearing Cap
Staley’s retirement and the flurry of trades have made the Niners’ salary cap situation much different than a few days ago. With Joe Staley’s contract gone (minus the $1M in signing bonus money accelerated from the next two years), Goodwin being traded (minus the $1.25M in dead cap we’ll eat), Breida’s entire cap figure being shipped to the Dolphins, and the addition of a $12.5M charge from Trent Williams’ current deal, we now have somewhere between $15.5M - $17.5M in cap space. Throw out ~$7.5M to sign our rookie class and that leaves us with $8-10M.
Does that extra space help clear room for a Kittle extension? Perhaps. Extending him now costs us more in 2020 but theoretically puts the long-term math in our favor, as we can compare his current salary ($2.2M) with the franchise tag equivalent he’d make in 2021 ($9.7M) and 2022 ($11.6M), promising him considerably more money, guarantees, and security over the next handful of years than he would gain on a year-by-year projection. We’ve also always expected any extension Kittle signs to have a team-friendly 2020 cap hit before jumping in future years, and it may be time to jump on that now. There will be no shortage of roster decisions we have to make next year, and we’d prefer if Kittle wasn’t one of them.
Questions for 2021 and Beyond
While 2020 featured an off-season of mostly re-signing our squad and hoping to run it back, it’s safe to assume 2021 will have much more roster turnover. After the 2020 season, the following major contributors enter unrestricted free agency: George Kittle (barring extension), Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, Juice, DJ Jones, Robbie Gould, Tevin Coleman, Kendrick Bourne, Ronald Blair, Solomon Thomas, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Trent Taylor. It’s also worth mentioning that much of the theoretical cap savings we’ll have from these expiring contracts will be sucked up by the Kwon, Richburg, and Ward contracts, which see their respective 2021 cap figures hop $12M and $11M and $7M from their current 2020 marks.
While the 2021 salary cap will spike due to the larger share of revenue the players negotiated for in the newest CBA, it was expected to spike A LOT under the idea that the NFL’s next lucrative media deal would already be in place. Well, I have to assume that negotiations on that deal are put on hold until after Coronavirus clears up, and with so many questions facing the future of sports when we return from toilet paper apocalypse, the salary cap in 2021 and beyond becomes a major guessing game.
This is where the five draft picks hurt us. Typically, you plan to develop young talent via the draft to replace departed free agents, then rely on the comp picks you get from those free agents leaving to continue to add talent in future years. But by committing to an aggressive approach of obtaining free agents before and during last season and packaging picks to move up during this draft, we ultimately wound up with five draft picks. Additionally, any comp picks garnered from the above names departing won’t be gained until the 2022 draft (and cutting or trading someone like Kwon, Richburg, or Dee Ford will take them out of the comp pick formula). So even if we assume we destroy the 2022 draft and accumulate loads of talent, in 2021, most of the players that will be asked to replace the departing names of the 14 contributors above are already on the team or will have to be drafted to play as rookies.
Yes, we’re far from devoid of talent among our backups. The fact that we went 13-3 despite having -- according to Football Outsiders -- the sixth-most losses due to injury in the NFL last year, proves that. We have guys like Jullian Taylor and Tarvarius Moore, who could be ready for bigger responsibilities; untested but talented youngsters like Kevin Givens, Tim Harris, and Jalen Hurd, who could carve out roles with more snaps this year; studs like Raheem Mostert and Nick Bosa locked up on reasonable deals; and at least two more bargain-basement ERFA years out of promising starters Emmanuel Moseley and Daniel Brunskill. But you need draft picks in numbers to replenish departed free agents, and we’re already down a second-day selection in 2021 from the Williams trade.
The Niners’ brass has made contending in 2020 a top priority this off-season, and given the number of high-performing players we have on friendly expiring contracts, that makes a lot of sense. And if there ever was a draft where it hurts less to have a lot of picks it's the one in a year when a global pandemic will almost certainly shrink the off-season and limit preparation time for rookies. But while the Niners have done a great job of assembling and retaining a contending team for next year, if we want to keep our championship window open beyond 2020, we’ll need to shift our priorities more towards accruing comp picks and maximizing the number of players we can get via the draft.
Draft Preview: Secondary
Prepping for a potential youth movement in 2021
![50/50 chance this stadium had a rubber track around the field [USA Today]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1587671086280-H8XRC3WJ563X62LP2JDZ/dugger2.jpg)
50/50 chance this stadium had a rubber track around the field [USA Today]
Safeties
Necessary Traits: The typical Seattle 3 scheme asks for one deep free safety and one box strong safety, with the free safety needing the range and instincts to play the single-high deep middle role and the box safety being bigger and more of a box hitter who deals more with tight ends and shallower zones.
While some of that distinction surely still exists, we've now moved to more of a multiple look that asks our safeties to be much more interchangeable. That means everyone has to cover and everyone has to hit. So while we can still bring in a limited box thumper as a strong safety, it's unlikely that type of player becomes a starter, and if forced into action (like Marcell Harris last year), they could be in for some tough matchups.
Roster Need: Jimmie Ward just got signed to a three-year extension. While he's an injury risk, the combination of him and capable backup Tarvarius Moore shores up one of our starting positions. On the other side, equally injury-prone Jaquiski Tartt is entering the final year of his contract and there have been rumors of him being floated for a potential trade. While he played very well last year when healthy, this may be a chance for the Niners to start investing in a 2021 replacement who can stay on the field more consistently.
But unlike wide receiver or offensive line, this need isn't immediately pressing. So if a future starter doesn't fall to them, they may add some later round developmental or subpackage players. So the second day is the earliest we're likely to get a safety, with the third day probably being the most likely.
Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne: The first of two small-school prospects who have skyrocketed up draft boards, Dugger blends excellent size (6-1, 217 pounds) with impressive speed and explosiveness (4.48 forty, 42" vertical, 11'02" broad) and three years of All-Conference play at the Division II level. An instinctual, explosive athlete, he uses his long arms and big hands to stack and shed against the run and break up passes, notching 36 pass deflections and 10 picks in college (and 6 punt returns for TDs lol). With prototypical size and athletic ability, he really was a man amongst boys on the Division II level, and sometimes he played like he was almost bored, not exploding out of breaks or taking a little while to get going. But when he had to step up against Senior Bowl competition, he shined. He'll need to see things quicker and adapt to the big leap in competition, but has all the tools necessary to become an impact starter in the NFL. [Round 2]
Jeremy Chinn, Southern Illinois: The second of our small-school wonders, Chinn takes after Steve Atwater, his long-time NFL safety uncle and 2020 Hall of Fame inductee, by being a gigantic (6-3, 221 pounds) hard-hitting force at the safety position. Built more like a linebacker but with cornerback athleticism (4.45 forty, 41" vertical, 11'06" broad), Chinn is at his best as a versatile man defender and ballhawk (13 picks in four years, with at least 3 picks every year). But as a pure safety, he'll need to up his awareness and instincts in order to maximize his considerable physical skills. Right now he gets caught watching and guessing too much, which will certainly make teams wonder if they need a specific coaching and deployment plan for him to be consistently effective in the NFL. At the very least, a cleanup in technique should make him a giant nickel / coverage linebacker / man specialist on tight ends and jumbo slots, but if his instincts and recognition skills catch up to his body, then the potential is considerably higher. [2nd Round]
*Ashtyn Davis, Cal: The rare unheralded dual-sport walk-on who also has top-notch measurables, Davis didn't get to run at the combine but if he had it surely would have helped his stock. Despite his father and grandfather both being addicted to meth, Davis got into Cal academically but things fell through and he wasn’t able to walk-on to the football team. So he joined the track team in the spring, email spammed the shit out of the football coaches until they gave him a tryout, and — within two years — had been offered a scholarship for both sports. An All-American in track and the 2018 Pac-12 champ in the 110m hurdles, Davis has tremendous range with both high-end speed and excellent burst. Pair that with his reckless physicality and strong ball skills (7 interceptions and 19 pass deflections over four years), and you have a high-ceiling prospect that's still developing the nuances of the game. His natural recognition skills seem strong but he can be a step late diagnosing and requires more experience and trust in his reads, and his aggressive nature can get him caught on double moves and misdirections. There are also times where he chases the big hit too much, which can lead to missed tackles or friendly fire. Overall, he's a high-ceiling free safety prospect with a great story, but someone who needs some developing and who you likely wouldn't want manning the back of your defense as a rookie. [2nd - 3rd Round]
Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota: Son of long-time cornerback and former Pro Bowler Antoine Winfield Sr., Junior lacks ideal size and length but makes up for it with tremendous IQ, instincts, and playmaking skills. He's a ballhawk, with seven interceptions last year, and he's dangerous on the turnaround, notching an average of 21 yards/interception and scoring twice over nine career picks. He's equally instinctive against the run, shooting gaps and playing in the backfield with regularity, and his all-around play has some Honey Badger-ish tendencies. But his lack of size and length (72" wingspan) are a problem in coverage, with very few pass breakups, and against the run, where he's never going to be able to take on blockers and has a small margin for error as a tackler. There are also durability concerns -- as he's missed major time with Lisfranc and hamstring injuries -- and character concerns -- as he was initially part of the group of players suspended for sexual assault allegations in 2016 before being reinstated on appeal. That case, which led to the firing of the entire football coaching staff, the suspension or expulsion of ten players, and a $45 million lawsuit against the university from said players for alleged racial discrimination and for disregarding evidence that supported them, ultimately wound up in five players being expelled from the school and five -- including Winfield -- being totally reinstated. So if there's any interest in him, the Niners had best do their homework. [2nd - 3rd Round]
*K'Von Wallace, Clemson: Heady player who started 36 games for a highly successful Clemson defense, relying largely on his intelligence, quick diagnostic skills, and competitiveness as a back half defender for the Tigers. Moves well, is physical, and probably does his best work as a slightly larger nickel defender where he can blitz and play the run, but he lacks ideal size and athleticism. He can get out-sized by tight ends or out-quicked by speedy slots, which makes him project more as a subpackage defender out of the slot. [5th Round]
Alohi Gillman, Notre Dame: Downhill safety who uses quick read-and-react skills and strong instincts to close space to the LOS and deliver hits on ball carriers. Is smart, competes hard, and showed better than expected movement skills (4.08 shuttle, 6.81 three-cone) that give hope for his coverage potential on the next level. However, he's more of a smaller linebacker than a safety, struggling when he has to turn and run down the field and lacking ball skills at the catch point. As a pro he projects as a sub-package box safety and special teamer. [6th Round]
*Daniel Thomas, Auburn: Thomas combines rock-solid bulk (5-10, 215 pounds) with good straight-line speed and does his best work moving forward. He's a strong run defender with quick run-game instincts, good burst through the hole, and powerful finishing skills. But when he's not playing forward he can have some issues. His lack of size makes him a liability against bigger tight ends and wideouts on jump balls and he simply doesn't have great coverage awareness on anything other than short, smaller zones. He's a subpackage type against the run who could become a strong special teamer. [6th - 7th Round]
![Still the best mascot in football [GoFrogs.com]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1587671186335-AG5P05N6MHIPHG1M6EXZ/Jeff_Gladney_3.jpg)
Still the best mascot in football [GoFrogs.com]
Boundary Cornerback
Necessary Traits: For outside cornerbacks, the Seattle 3 System likes taller, longer players who can be physical at the line and tackle. Because they're so often asked to cover a deep third of the field they need to be able to play vertical routes without help (where the size helps) but are less often required to run man coverage and shorter zones (where the focus would be more on quickness). Again, there's some flexibility here because of how we've adjusted our defense in the past year, but we're still primarily a zone defense so anyone who plays DB for us has to be capable there.
Roster Need: Both Sherman and Witherspoon have their contracts up at the end of the year (Moseley does too but we still have another year of ERFA flexibility so realistically he's on a two-year deal). While everyone and their mother says we need an upgrade opposite Sherman, I think Moseley -- who wasn't a starter until mid-way through last season -- is still ascending as a player. Now if the team wants to move on from Sherman, who will be 33 next off-season, after his contract is up then we should add a body to the mix, but I don't think that means we absolutely need an immediate outside starter this year. We have Moseley, there's still some shallow amount of hope left for Witherspoon, and there's still Tim Harris, who will undoubtedly not amount to anything since I keep talking him up.
While that may not sound like much, it's important to note that our decision to play a Seattle 3 with a wide 9 front means that we're going to be focusing more resources to the defensive line and less towards cornerback play, where you can theoretically draft and develop cheaper players as they're put on islands less frequently. So the earliest I'd want to select a CB is at the bottom of the first.
*CJ Henderson, Florida: The draft's consensus second-best cornerback, Henderson has all the physical traits necessary to be a lockdown press-man defender, with good size (6-0.5, 204 pounds), fluid movement skills, and an explosive burst out of his breaks (37.5" vertical, 10'07" broad). His timed speed (4.39 forty) is probably a shade faster than his play speed, but he's plenty fast to blanket receivers, and his length, footwork, and man-to-man instincts will help compensate against any burners.That being said, there are a handful of reasons to wonder if he's the right fit for our scheme. First off, he's a press-man corner, and we run primarily zone. And while that isn't necessarily an issue, Henderson has shown mental lapses in zone coverage and doesn't show the same level of reading and recognition skills when he's not latched onto a receiver's hip. Secondly, he's not a ballhawk (six interceptions in 33 games). In fact, he struggles to play the ball in the air, particularly when his back is to the quarterback, and will draw flags as he tries to read receivers' eyes instead of turning and locating. While that theoretically could be mitigated by zone play, there's no situation where poor tracking skills aren't somewhat of a liability. And finally, he offers very little in terms of run support, a trait that is more important for corners in zone defenses. Now is there a chance that most of this could be worked through with added experience and good coaching? Yes. But that's a lot of ifs for a player who many people are mocking to us at #13 overall. [Top 15]
Jeff Gladney, TCU: Tenacious press-man and zone defender, Gladney has started 42 games over four years for the Horned Frogs, often trailing the opposition's best receiver. He uses his strong movement skills and long arms (75" wingspan) to get into the frame of bigger receivers and knock smaller ones off their routes. Smooth mover who anticipates routes, aggressively breaks on the ball, and is highly competitive from the intial snap through the catch point. Sticky in man coverage and instinctive in zone, if anything he's too physical at times, drawing flags down the field as he competes for the ball. While he's got quick feet and good burst, he probably ran a bit faster than he is on the field (4.48 forty) and he lacks ideal NFL size (5-10, 192 pounds). While he plays the ball well (43 pass deflections), he isn't a ballhawk (5 interceptions), and has had his fair share of drops. His zone awareness will continue to grow with more reps, and while he needs to get less handsy with receivers, he has the skills to cement himself as a long-term starter at nickel corner or outside, which could prove rather useful as we evaluate our roster's many expiring contracts. [1st - 2nd Round]
Trevon Diggs, Alabama: The little brother of (now) Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, Trevon is a jumbo corner (6-1, 205 pounds) with the strength of a safety who plays the ball like the converted wideout that he is. He's got incredible length (78 3/4" wingspan), which he uses in press man and to snatch passes out of the air with his tremendous ball skills. While deep speed is a very real question mark, he's got good movement skills and short area quickness and could theoretically mask the speed issues with strong technique. However, he does not have sound technique. Since he's a Bama CB he doesn't backpedal, which isn't a dealbreaker but has allowed him to get really lazy in his footwork and stance. And since he is a bigger dude with lesser speed, that can get him in trouble. Physically he mostly matches what we want, and there are reasons to believe he can be an Aqib Talib / Marcus Peters type on the outside, but his focus and approach to the game are worrisome given the position and the potential draft slot. [1st - 2nd Round]
A.J. Terrell, Clemson: Last we saw him he was getting absolutely obliterated in the national championship game by future top-15 pick Ja'Marr Chase. But with Terrell there is still more good tape than bad. He's a super smooth mover whose got good size (6-1, 195 pounds), the strong body control to mirror receivers, and very good ball skills at the catch point. Where you worry about him is everything you saw in the playoffs. When faced with an uptick in competition (OSU, LSU) he had some issues, his biggest one being that he lacks catchup speed down the field and that -- in conjunction with his less than ideal timing and burst out of his hip turn -- really makes you worry about how he's going to play vertical routes in the NFL. He's never going to fix the speed issues, but with his physical demeanor and strong work ethic, improving his hip work will go a long way to minimizing the damage caused by vertical threats. Additionally, shifting to more zone coverage may help him. There's starter ability here, but a lot of question marks for this high in the draft. [1st - 2nd Round]
*Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State: With good height (6-2, 188 pounds), quick feet, and strong short-area burst, Dantzler has a nice base blueprint for a corner who can press or handle a deep third. He's physical at the line of scrimmage, competes well at the catch point, and seems to have a good understanding of route combos and a natural nose for the football (even if he's only average at tracking it in the air). Despite running the second-slowest forty time amongst corners (4.64) he's done a good job of using his body and feet to stay in phase with vertical routes. He's handsy, will get flags, and will have to adjust to NFL rules. He's a tall, skinny dude, so you worry if he'll be a liability on the edge run game, and he stands up too tall on some transitions, which -- combined with his lack of speed -- kills his burst and is something he needs to clean up as he moves to the pro. All that said, he has potential outside starter tools to work with. [3rd Round]
Bryce Hall, Virginia: A four-year starter with great size (6-1, 202 pounds) and length (78 1/2" wingspan), Hall dominates at the catch point, where he uses his size, excellent ball skills, and basketball background to excel (24 pass deflections in 2018 alone). Instinctive in zone and aggressive to undercut routes, Hall is a ball-hunter, which will inevitably mean he will gamble wrong at times. But he's right more often than not based on instincts, ball tracking skills, and diligent film study. He lacks great long-speed and that isn't helped by his upright transition style. He also missed all but six games from his senior year after suffering a serious ankle injury, so medicals will be crucial and it's hard to say what that entails during corona lockdown. If he can clear medicals and clean up his technique in and out of breaks, he could be a very nice fit in our zone defense. [Round 3]
*Michael Ojemudia, Iowa: Good-sized athlete (6-0.5, 200 pounds) with a physical knack for coverage and run support (but done so in a sublte way, as he only had one PI penalty in 2019). He has good experience playing off-man, keeping plays in front of him and tracking the ball well in the air, but his lack of ideal burst may make him best in press zone looks. Tested pretty well across the board (4.45 forty, 36" vertical, 6.87 three cone), although he doesn't look as athletic on tape. Has the NFL body and has had some college production, but very much a work in progress. [4th Round]
Nickel Cornerback
Necessary traits: Nickels need to be a bit more versatile, as they inherently play more man or man-like coverages lining up over the slot. These players don't need to be as big as boundary corners, but they need to be adept at man and zone coverage, and quickness is a higher priority for them. They have to be very comfortable in space. If they can blitz as well that's a bonus, but blitzing in general isn't something we do a lot of.
Roster Need: K'Waun Williams' contract is also up at the end of the year and the current replacement for him is some combination of DJ Reed on slot receiver types and backup safety Tarvarius Moore on bigger bodies. Luckily for us, nickel corners often come cheaper in the draft and are often highly accomplished collegiate boundary cornerbacks who must slide inside due to size limitations. Unless we get a player who could play either inside or outside (see: Jeff Gladney above), I wouldn't expect to draft a corner until -- at the very earliest -- the third round.
*Josiah Scott, Michigan State: An undersized (5-9, 185 pounds) and short-armed (71 1/4" wingspan) overperfomer, Scott has quick feet, great closing burst, and good speed (4.42 forty). He was rarely beat vertically in college despite his size and is impressive disrupting passes at the catch point (32 pass deflections, 7 interceptions in 30 career games, all starts). As a tackler he's willing but he's never going to be that good. Due to his size he certainly projects as a nickel, and he should have the athleticism and tape to translate to that kind of role. He's got really solid coverage chops. The biggest question is whether his lack of size, length, and strength are finally too much to overcome on the NFL level, or if he is a nickel corner mainstay for years. Either way, he would be a subpackage player for us as a rookie. [3rd Round]
Darnay Holmes, UCLA: As a former five-star recruit out of high school, Holmes is unsurprisingly a really good athlete. While he only tested for the forty at the combine (4.48), his movement skills were on display in the positional drills, and he has all the athletic traits you need to play corner in the NFL. He's competitive at the catch point, has very good ball skills (28 pass deflections and 8 interceptions in three years), and is dangerous with the ball in his hands (2 INTs and one kickoff returned for TDs). That being said, his tape is just okay. His instincts don't seem great, he's late to recognize and trigger, and he struggles to burst out of transitions due to some messy mechanics and tight hips. Additionally, his height (5-9.5, 195 pounds) and length (69 3/4" wingspan) are red flags and could limit him to a nickel role. Now will he be able to focus more on technique and hone in on things mentally if placed in more man-heavy nickel roles? Or will his struggles staying on routes mean he quickly flounders? A lot of projection there for a mid-round pick. He's a high-upside gamble. [3rd - 4th Round]
Lavert Hill, Michigan: Under defensive coordinator Don Brown, Michigan's man-heavy defense has churned out nickel corners (Jourdan Lewis, David Long) and Hill -- while significantly less heralded than the other two -- is the next in line. A talented lockdown cover man who was All-Big Ten the past three years (first team the past two), Hill has good quickness, change of direction skills, and ball skills. For his height, he has solid length (74 3/8" wingspan), which helps him in press and at the catch point, and Michigan's defensive diversification last year even exposed him to more shallow zone coverage. But Hill's two most glaring weaknesses bring big questions as to his pro transition. First off, there's his size (5-10, 190 pounds with a super slender build). He can struggle against bigger wideouts. Then there's his top-end speed. While he didn't run at the combine, it's not great, and when players get a step on him he tends to lose body control and get supper grabby in the transition (8 PI or defensive holding calls in 2019). Thus, it is difficult to project how well he will transition both to the pro game and a nickel role. [6th - 7th Round]