Draft Recap: All-in for 2020 (and hopefully after that too)

Wingspan warriors [49ers.com]

A lot of coordinators can't cut it as head coaches because (among other things) they fail to respect and develop the opposing side of the ball. Offensive coordinators neglect defensive starters in lieu of a fourth wideout who will undoubtedly fail to live up to his lofty forty time while defensive coordinators continually assemble overlapping front seven pieces while running an offensive scheme that resembles the Big Ten in the 70's during a snowstorm. At the very least, we don't have to worry about that with ShanaLynch. 

For the third time in four years, the Niners went defensive line with their first-round pick, reinforcing the idea that they need front four talent to field a high-level defense, while they can manufacture more offensive success through a collection of lower-priced schematic fits.

But this draft -- which was inordinately busy given the paltry number of selections we had -- also reaffirmed that the Niners are doubling down in a few other ways. 

Run it Back

We are committed to getting back to the Super Bowl in 2020. With an off-season that featured two major departures (DeFo, Emmo) but otherwise little roster turnover (we cut our starting guard, let a rotational DT leave), this team only really had two positions where a young player could come in and immediately get major reps. We filled both of them in the first round. 

This is a team that got really good at least a year earlier than scheduled and since then has been committed to chasing a ring. Our decisions this weekend have helped that cause. At least for 2020.

YAC Yards 4Ever

Given how deep and versatile this receiver class was, how we approached filling Emmo's shoes was going to shed light on what type of receiver corps Shanahan wanted to develop. If we got Mims or Pittman, two bigger purely outside X receivers, then we were looking for wideouts with clear and specific roles that they could specialize in. If we got Ruggs or Reagor we were prioritizing take-off-the-top vertical speed so that we could threaten defenses deep. If we got Shenault or Bowden, two less-developed swiss army knives, then we were moving more towards a "Warriors on grass" kind of set up where we could deploy a handful of versatile positionless weapons. By drafting Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, the clear plan is to double down on YAC yardage.

Aiyuk led the nation in yards after catch, averaging an absurd 11.1 YAC / reception, a mark that is doubly impressive considering he was the clear No.1 target on the offense of a Top 40-ish Power 5 program. While Aiyuk did most of his damage with speed, burst, and open field running, Jennings did so with rare power, as his 30 broken tackles led all FBS receivers in 2019. In addition, both wideouts help improve one of our offense’s biggest weaknesses. They have vertical chops.

This focus on YAC makes sense given our rushing attack, Shanahan's ability to scheme up RPOs and backside slants to get receivers in space, and Jimmy G's comfort-level in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Thus, our wideout additions were able to keep our offensive identity largely intact, while (hopefully) addressing one our offense’s biggest limitations in 2019.

No DBs

For back-to-back years, outside pundits have had defensive back as a problem position for the Niners entering the draft, and for back-to-back drafts, the Niners declined to draft any early defensive back help (with 2019 sixth-rounder Tim Harris being the only DB drafted in 13 combined picks). Due to the high number of DBs that play both on special teams and on defense in any given year and the tentative contract situation of most of our secondary, I would expect that to change next year. But the Niners’ reluctance to tap this draft class for a defensive back could allude to the fact that they must think highly of the youngsters currently on roster. Which would obviously help us next year, and — perhaps more importantly — the year after.

Kittle by Committee

Whether it was Austin Hooper or Jordan Reed, the Niners kicked the tires on a number of different tight ends throughout the off-season. And while the majority of free agents and draft prospects they chatted with were catch-first guys who often lacked in the blocking department, the Niners decided to address the need in a different way on draft day: taking snaps out of Kittle’s hands with a committee approach.

6th-round Georgia tight end Charlie Woerner is known mostly, if not entirely, for his effort and blocking ability, particularly at odd angles and on the move. While not much of a receiving threat, his versatile blocking ability means he can be groomed to absorb blocking snaps from Juice and Kittle. While Jauan Jennings, discussed above, profiles as a big slot, where he will backup / compete with Jalen Hurd for duties that require a particular blend of jumbo, tough receiver and in-the-box blocker — duties that Kittle, without a big slot on the roster, typically had to take on himself in 2019.

With the new additions of (functionally) three new rookies, all who can spell Kittle at different locations and roles on the field, the Niners can rest easy knowing there will be a player (or two) who can give their star tight end a rest and preserve his body for the long haul.

Getting Their Guys

For better or worse, the Niners have shown a propensity to go out of their way to target “their guys,” flipping mid-round picks to move up and get their top tier players in the first. If these players pan out, then yes, it’s a no-brainer to go up and select two of your highest-rated players. But this is nearly the exact same scenario that unfolded in 2017 when the Niners traded down one spot to pick Solomon Thomas and then used one of those additional picks to trade up into the bottom of the first and take Reuben Foster. Let’s hope it works out better this time.

But the “getting their guy” mindset clearly worked out with the trade for Trent Williams. Despite their successes starting a handful of games at tackle in 2019, I doubt any of us were thrilled at the idea of Justin Skule or Daniel Brunskill immediately protecting Jimmy G’s blindside for an entire season. Or the oft-injured and largely unproven Shon Coleman. Or the incredibly unproven 5th-round rookie Colton McKivitz. If he stays healthy and shakes off the rust, Trent Williams is a top 5 NFL tackle who is familiar with the scheme, but he’s also entering the final year of his contract. 

If Williams excels and wants to stay, it’s hard to say how much he’ll get paid as he’ll be 32 before the 2020 season begins. Just last year, Trent Brown, then 26, signed a contract that paid him $16.5M/year, and Lane Johnson, then 29, signed a deal that gives him $18M/year. Laremy Tunsil just got an extension that pays him $22M/year but he’s 25 and that was the Texans, and you can’t really use them as a measuring stick for any rational management decisions. It’s not unreasonable to expect a then-33-year-old Williams to take something closer to Brown/Johnson’s rate for a three-or-four year extension. And it wouldn’t be unreasonable to hope that the time away from football has let his body heal and that he’d be able to play out the length of that contract at a high level. 

At this point that’s all a guessing game. If he excels and we can pay him then great. If he excels but is too rich for our blood, then we’ll hopefully have groomed a replacement by then and will likely net a 2022 third-round comp pick when he leaves. Ultimately, the risks are well-worth the reward, especially given the immediate need and modest price point. 

Clearing Cap

Staley’s retirement and the flurry of trades have made the Niners’ salary cap situation much different than a few days ago. With Joe Staley’s contract gone (minus the $1M in signing bonus money accelerated from the next two years), Goodwin being traded (minus the $1.25M in dead cap we’ll eat), Breida’s entire cap figure being shipped to the Dolphins, and the addition of a $12.5M charge from Trent Williams’ current deal, we now have somewhere between $15.5M - $17.5M in cap space. Throw out ~$7.5M to sign our rookie class and that leaves us with $8-10M. 

Does that extra space help clear room for a Kittle extension? Perhaps. Extending him now costs us more in 2020 but theoretically puts the long-term math in our favor, as we can compare his current salary ($2.2M) with the franchise tag equivalent he’d make in 2021 ($9.7M) and 2022 ($11.6M), promising him considerably more money, guarantees, and security over the next handful of years than he would gain on a year-by-year projection. We’ve also always expected any extension Kittle signs to have a team-friendly 2020 cap hit before jumping in future years, and it may be time to jump on that now. There will be no shortage of roster decisions we have to make next year, and we’d prefer if Kittle wasn’t one of them.

Questions for 2021 and Beyond

While 2020 featured an off-season of mostly re-signing our squad and hoping to run it back, it’s safe to assume 2021 will have much more roster turnover. After the 2020 season, the following major contributors enter unrestricted free agency: George Kittle (barring extension), Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, Juice, DJ Jones, Robbie Gould, Tevin Coleman, Kendrick Bourne, Ronald Blair, Solomon Thomas, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Trent Taylor. It’s also worth mentioning that much of the theoretical cap savings we’ll have from these expiring contracts will be sucked up by the Kwon, Richburg, and Ward contracts, which see their respective 2021 cap figures hop $12M and $11M and $7M from their current 2020 marks. 

While the 2021 salary cap will spike due to the larger share of revenue the players negotiated for in the newest CBA, it was expected to spike A LOT under the idea that the NFL’s next lucrative media deal would already be in place. Well, I have to assume that negotiations on that deal are put on hold until after Coronavirus clears up, and with so many questions facing the future of sports when we return from toilet paper apocalypse, the salary cap in 2021 and beyond becomes a major guessing game.

This is where the five draft picks hurt us. Typically, you plan to develop young talent via the draft to replace departed free agents, then rely on the comp picks you get from those free agents leaving to continue to add talent in future years. But by committing to an aggressive approach of obtaining free agents before and during last season and packaging picks to move up during this draft, we ultimately wound up with five draft picks. Additionally, any comp picks garnered from the above names departing won’t be gained until the 2022 draft (and cutting or trading someone like Kwon, Richburg, or Dee Ford will take them out of the comp pick formula). So even if we assume we destroy the 2022 draft and accumulate loads of talent, in 2021, most of the players that will be asked to replace the departing names of the 14 contributors above are already on the team or will have to be drafted to play as rookies.

Yes, we’re far from devoid of talent among our backups. The fact that we went 13-3 despite having -- according to Football Outsiders -- the sixth-most losses due to injury in the NFL last year, proves that. We have guys like Jullian Taylor and Tarvarius Moore, who could be ready for bigger responsibilities; untested but talented youngsters like Kevin Givens, Tim Harris, and Jalen Hurd, who could carve out roles with more snaps this year; studs like Raheem Mostert and Nick Bosa locked up on reasonable deals; and at least two more bargain-basement ERFA years out of promising starters Emmanuel Moseley and Daniel Brunskill. But you need draft picks in numbers to replenish departed free agents, and we’re already down a second-day selection in 2021 from the Williams trade. 

The Niners’ brass has made contending in 2020 a top priority this off-season, and given the number of high-performing players we have on friendly expiring contracts, that makes a lot of sense. And if there ever was a draft where it hurts less to have a lot of picks it's the one in a year when a global pandemic will almost certainly shrink the off-season and limit preparation time for rookies. But while the Niners have done a great job of assembling and retaining a contending team for next year, if we want to keep our championship window open beyond 2020, we’ll need to shift our priorities more towards accruing comp picks and maximizing the number of players we can get via the draft.