Welcome: WR, Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
![With the ball, in space, his natural habitat [Sundevils.com]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1588981081297-DHDLW8DN4IFPJCX57CLT/aiyuk+photo.jpeg)
With the ball, in space, his natural habitat [Sundevils.com]
It’s not crazy that the Niners had Brandon Aiyuk as their No.1 wideout in the draft. This class had a lot of receiver depth but just as much debate about its pecking order. Henry Ruggs (#12 to Raiders) has the athletic ceiling but also many of the question marks that come with any speedster projected for a No.1 role beyond his college production. Jerry Jeudy (#15 to Broncos) has all the production you can ask for, but his shaky hands and skinny frame make you wonder how some of his play style and production will translate to the pros. And CeeDee Lamb — the receiver the Niners admitted was neck-and-neck with Aiyuk at the top of their rankings — has production, jump-ball ability, and elite YAC skills, but lacks the quickness and speed that gives Aiyuk just slightly more athletic upside.
In the end, I had Aiyuk rated as the fourth-best wideout, but also the one who I wanted the most. That’s because (A) he is such a perfect schematic fit and a player whose arrow is clearly pointing upward, (B) he was clearly going to be around longer than any of the consensus top three wideouts, and (C) my dream was a first round of Derrick Brown/Tristan Wirfs and Aiyuk. Granted, that dream was before I knew Joe Staley was retiring and that we were deep in talks for Trent Williams. And it was a dream built off of a potentially ludicrous hope that Brunskill can shape himself into a plus starter at center by 2021 and that Wirfs at 13 and Aiyuk at 31 was a possibility, which… I’ll get to later, but in retrospect seems unlikely.
Anyways…
GTFO Man
Good Evaluation: Per usual, this is TBD until we see him on the field. Scouting report will be at the bottom.
Top Tier: A+. The Niners said both Kinlaw and Aiyuk were in their top six “foundational players” in this draft. With that said, and Aiyuk ranked as their top receiver, getting him at 25 is clearly a home run based off of their board.
Fills Need: A. From my POV, this was the only position where we absolutely NEEDED to find a new starter during the draft (this excluding left tackle of course because it wasn’t public knowledge that Staley would be retiring until Trent Williams was acquired).
Optimizes Slot Value: B. Aiyuk at 25 is far from a stretch so determining this grade means answering two questions: (1) Does it make sense to trade up in a draft that is so deep with wide receiver talent, particularly in the 20-50 pick range, instead of tapping that depth with a later pick? (aka is Aiyuk THAT much better than the dudes who were drafted after him?); and (2) would Aiyuk have been around at 31 if the Niners had stayed pat?
For the first question, it’s important to note that while there were plenty of available wideouts with similar-ish grades to Aiyuk, he was not only the consensus #5 wideout based on the (potentially pointless) opinions of most draft pundits but also the last prospect who could do what the Niners wanted from this pick: fill Emmanuel Sanders’ role as a Z-receiver with the versatility to line up inside or out.
Anyone who says “the Niners could have waited and gotten Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman” really does not have a strong understanding of the Niners’ offense or the role that they were looking to fill. Those guys are pure X receivers. Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool, both also drafted in the second round, are pure X receivers. KJ Hamler is a pure slot. Laviska Shenault can move all over a formation, but he will require a lot of development to become even a second option in the passing game. Van Jefferson should be plug-and-play in the pros, but he may have already hit his ceiling. Aiyuk was absolutely the last dude left on the board who you could be confident to ask to come in and play major minutes all over the formation AND have the upside of a No.1 receiver.
The second question is a bit trickier. In hindsight, if Aiyuk was going to be there at 31 then moving up to get him was clearly a bad move. So would he have been there?
It’s been floated that the Niners traded up to 25 to cut off the Packers, who were high on Aiyuk and would have picked him if he was available. While it's impossible to know if the Pack would have selected Aiyuk or Love at 26 if both were on the board, believing there was interest from the Packers — who hadn’t drafted an offensive skill player in the first round of the draft since Aaron Rodgers, who had been in deep pre-draft talks with Aiyuk, and who clearly lack a No.2 wideout — was totally reasonable.
It’s also been said that the Dolphins, who had just acquired a rookie quarterback, are totally devoid of skill players outside of DeVante Parker, and immediately traded out of the 26th pick after the Niners selected Aiyuk, would have taken Aiyuk a pick later if the Niners hadn't traded up. Or even the Ravens, who wound up drafting wideouts in the third and sixth round (although as both project more as slot receivers this one seems the least likely of the three).
ESPN's Seth Walder has been highly critical of the trade and has referenced a 59% chance that Aiyuk would have been there based on the fuzzy, potentially made-up math behind "ESPN's Draft Predictor Machine." ("only a 3% chance of catching that ball but he did? Oh fuck, I love it when ESPN throws meaningless stats at me!"). But Walder's basing this claim on some combination of the idea that Aiyuk is considerably worse than the top three wideouts and that the wideouts picked in the second round are talent and scheme equivalents, a flawed theory that I've already discussed. According to any NFL Draft Valuation Chart, the trade (based on points) was, if anything, slightly to moderately favorable for the Niners, and — while you all know my love for obtaining more picks — that chart (theoretically) accounts for the loss in hit chances due to decreased pick quantity.
Based on my own made-up numbers, I would say there was a 27.68% chance of Aiyuk being there at 31. So while it's totally fair to critique the trade and the packaging of picks to "go get your guy" mentality that has hurt the Niners in the past (Dante Pettis, Joe Williams, etc.), if the team wanted Kinlaw AND Aiyuk, they most likely had to trade up to get it done. And even if they didn’t, it made perfect sense that they thought they did.
Thus, the B grade.
Manages Future Capital: C. If Aiyuk kills it then, again, this is the least important part of the puzzle, and we’ll happily sacrifice the capital loss for on-field performance. But godDAMN it would have been nice to have (at least) that fourth-rounder back.
That pick (and the late fifth-rounder) would have given us a shot at an abundance of cornerbacks — from developmental boundary guys to promising nickels who could play right away — any and all types of interior line support, and a wide selection of tight ends with legit receiving chops who could have excelled in a backup role for Kittle.
Harrison Bryant, last year’s Mackey Award winner, would go two slots before our would-have-been pick in the fourth. Colby Parkinson, seam-stretching tight end out of Stanford, went later in the round (and to the Seahawks). Josiah Scott, a highly accomplished corner whose lack of size projects him as a potentially starting-caliber nickel corner, went just a few picks later. And Bryce Hall, who led the FBS in pass deflections as a junior and was a fringe first-rounder before a serious ankle injury, could be a future stud outside (and we could have gotten him with our fifth-round pick as he went a few slots after McKivitz)
As has been repeated ad nauseam, you hit more targets with more bullets. And while having two first-round picks is great, it’s important to note their hit ratio. League-wide, first-rounders only get their fifth-year option picked up 61% of the time, and up until Arik Armstead signed this off-season, do you know who the last 49ers first-round pick was who was inked to a multi-year extension off their rookie deal?
Patrick Willis in 2011 (drafted in 2007).
More bullets. More targets.
BIO
At 5-11.5 and 205 pounds with an 81-inch wingspan (80-inches at the combine so… there is human error here somewhere, but regardless his arms are long!), Aiyuk has a build that gives him some of the strengths of both a smaller and a bigger receiver without the weaknesses (like Blade. You guys remember Blade?).
With his smaller stature, it’s easier for him to be quicker out of breaks, change direction, and move in the open field, which will all be critically important both in our offense and the inside-outside role that he will be groomed to play. While his long arms — one of the longest in this year’s class and just one inch shorter than the 6’5 Calvin Johnson’s — allow him to high point jump balls, give him a catch radius of a much larger receiver, and can be a very useful weapon against press coverage.
COLLEGE CAREER
A high school running back, Aiyuk started his college career at Sierra Canyon CC, where he played wide receiver and cornerback as a freshman before transitioning fully to offense and scoring 18 touchdowns (14 receiving, 1 rushing, 2 KR, 1 PR) before moving to the D-1 ranks.
Aiyuk had a wave of suitors near signing day (many, like Alabama, had missed out on high school prospects), but he stuck to his early commitment to ASU. In his first year playing behind 2019 first-round pick N'Keal Harry, Aiyuk was slow to come on but finished the season strong, putting up nearly 2/3 of his production in the last four games of the year, when he averaged 5.5 catches and 74 yards/contest.
As the No.1 receiver last year, Aiyuk fully broke out with 65 - 1,192 - 8TDs on a whopping 18.3 yards per catch, totals that were good for 37% of the Sun Devils' passing yardage and 38% of its passing touchdowns; this despite Aiyuk sitting out their bowl game to prep for the draft. He also returned kicks, averaging 31.9 yards/kick and 16.1 yards/punt (including one score).
SCOUTING REPORT
Let's start with what makes Aiyuk such an incredibly great fit for our offense: Yards After Catch. Depending on what statistical breakdown you follow, he either led the entire FBS in YAC average (11.1 YAC/catch) or was really damn close to it.
And while he ran an unimpressive 4.50 at the combine, it's worth noting that was shortly before undergoing core muscle surgery, and he looks considerably faster on tape. It's also worth noting that he still had a 40" vertical on that day and that explosiveness shows in his breakaway burst in the open field.
Top speed is great but it's the ability to accelerate to it in a hurry and the knowledge of when to use it that helps create separation in the NFL and bust angles after the catch. Like in this clip against WSU:
Aiyuk's top speed looks plenty good there, but it's that angle-breaking burst the second he gets the ball that -- when combined with the loose hips that let him bend away from contact as he turns upfield in a hurry -- beats the corner to the spot and busts the safety's pursuit angle en route to an 86-yard touchdown.
Or, against Colorado, it's that burst and hip turn that turns a dig into a deep score.
But Aiyuk doesn't need a clear runway to the endzone to excel after the catch, as his understanding of pursuit angles and open space allows him to generate extra yardage all over the field.
Often what makes a guy a possession receiver versus a threat with the ball in his hands isn't just speed and burst, it's the spatial awareness to immediately know where the open field is and the skill to best exploit a defensive player's positioning to get there.
Aiyuk has that in spades, and it shows up both in the big plays...
And the smaller ones.
Most receivers could get 2-3 yards after that catch with a quick upfield turn into contact. But Aiyuk finds the space, exploits defensive positioning, and tacks on an additional 10 yards instead. With the Niners' emphasis on creating chunk gains, both Aiyuk's knack for the big-play and his ability to find hidden yardage underneath will be relied upon early and often.
In terms of getting him the ball in the first place, Aiyuk has strong, natural hands and can pluck the ball out of the air with ease, but he tends to let too many passes into his body. That’s part of what’s led to some concentration drops. According to PFF he had six drops and only two contested catches last year, and while part of that was the system the Sun Devils ran, it’s still a worrisome stat. The idea of him using that wingspan and 40” vertical to play much bigger than his size and win 50/50 balls is currently more theoretical than practical, and while he may never have to be a dominant jump ball threat (although… plz become that), he will have to consistently catch the ball with contact on slants and digs. Again, it’s not something he’s proven he CAN’T do, but it’s also not something he’s proven he CAN do.
His route running is in a similar vein, but with more positive data. Aiyuk has the quickness, smooth hips, and change of direction skills to develop into an excellent route runner, but at ASU, he got a lot of his yardage on slants, screens, and vertical routes. However, as the season progressed and he was asked to run a more complex route tree, he showed out well, and even in his “Four-S” routes (streak, slant, screen, shallow), he’s shown the ability to adapt to defenders with subtle moves that aren’t necessarily in the play call.
Down four in the fourth quarter against MSU, Aiyuk plays off the corner’s inside leverage, showing a nice inside stem and jab step before bursting outside down the sideline on a vertical route (and would-be go ahead touchdown if the ball wasn’t so under thrown).
And in the fourth quarter against Oregon, Aiyuk was tasked with another simple vertical route. But after reading the corner and seeing he was itching for a big play…
...Aiyuk threw in a single stutter step, hit the turbo button down the sideline, plucked the ball cleanly out of the air, and outran one of the best secondaries in the nation (in PFF’s ranking of college football’s top 30 returning DBs, four are from Oregon) and scored the game-sealing TD that kept Oregon out of the CFP last year.
Those are big plays in big moments that show the on-the-fly adaptability that you need to excel in the NFL. And, even if he hasn’t shown that 50/50 ability on tape, they also show his potential as a true vertical threat.
But the savvy and potential as a route runner are seen in more than just his 9-routes. While he lined up mostly outside in college, he’s shown intelligence and nuance out of the slot as well. Here he destroys a linebacker’s clear inside leverage with a great stem, outside lean, and head fake before breaking wide open inside for a solid gain.
The routes need work and repetitions, but there's just enough freelancing and savvy to his game to make you think he can master the little nuances that are hard to teach while polishing the more coachable aspects of route running. Which is largely the same way I’d describe his releases.
Lynch has gone on record saying that what ultimately led to Aiyuk being ranked over CeeDee Lamb was the fact that he was quicker, both in getting separation and releasing off the LOS.
So let's look at those releases.
Here he is on the goal line, getting that early separation that Emmanuel Sanders was so good at. Aiyuk is patient to not get open too soon, shows foot quickness, shoulder lean, and just enough of an outside jab step to get the DB on his back heel and his shoulders turned so that Aiyuk can slip underneath untouched for the score.
Here, in a move that (sigh) greatly resembles the releases that Davante Adams and Sammy Watkins used to beat Sherman in the playoffs, Aiyuk uses an explosive outside step to feign a 9-route with a "go" release, turning the corner's hips before using his foot quickness and hands to gain immediate inside leverage. Then he (mostly off-screen) uses a "shove by" to get wide open on an out route. This is a good example of both his diversity of releases and how his route running and polish drastically improved by the end of the season.
But it's not always that pretty. Like most college wideouts, he has had his issues against the press, letting corners get up into his shoulder pads both on the LOS and down the route despite his solid weight and significant arm length advantage.
In this first clip, he’s simply way too late with his hands, as they never come up and he gets hit in the mouth because of it.
While in this second clip, not only does he once again allow the DB’s punch to get his shoulders back and his pads raised, but he fails to disengage down the field, totally disrupting the path and timing of his route.
Like a prizefighter prone to getting knocked out, he simply keeps his hands down too often for too long on the press. With the amount of bump-and-run he’s likely to see, he’ll need to get better at this VERY quickly in order to see major minutes in 2020.
Much like with jump balls, he has all the talent, athleticism, and wingspan to become a master at beating the press, but, like with jump balls, he still needs to put it together and show it on tape. Which is really the story of Aiyuk at this moment. He does a couple things very very well and has the potential to do practically everything at that level, but he’ll need coaching and polish to get there.
It’ll be up to him and our coaches to make sure that the explosive upward trajectory in which he ended last season bleeds smoothly into the beginning of his rookie year. If that’s the case, a Deebo-ish developmental path is not out of the question.
Fit With Niners
While Aiyuk was brought in to replace the departed Emmo Sanders, his role as a rookie might look a bit different. And due to that, the Niners' receiving rotation could look a lot different than in 2019.
With 540 of Aiyuk's 655 snaps coming outside versus in the slot, I think that's where he starts out, playing both Z and X while getting some manufactured touches both inside and out with Four-S routes and reverses. The Niners' goal will be to get him in space, and -- based on Shanahan's track record -- I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they'll succeed in that goal. But with Bourne established at the X, Pettis a question mark, and Deebo a moveable chess piece that can play everywhere from Z to whatever the NFL-equivalent of an old Wing-T wingback is, we'll still need more pure slots. Theoretically, we should have plenty to choose from.
If healthy, Trent Taylor is our standard slot receiver and -- if he performs as he did as a rookie and in training camp -- he could be quite the valuable addition to our offense. A lot of "ifs" there, which is likely why Travis Benjamin was brought in as injury insurance. Meanwhile, the recovering Jalen Hurd and seventh-round sleeper Jauan Jennings both profile as big slots, providing tremendous size and power in the alleyway. And of course, there's Kittle, the ultimate mismatch, who also extends into the slot from time to time.
After our drop-laden loss to Seattle last year, our receiver rotation tightened up to three bodies: Sanders, Deebo, and Bourne. Based both on Sanders' departure and the fact that IR and the draft have given us four (practically) new additions to the receiving corps, I would expect a lot more rotation in 2020. While potentially troublesome for fantasy teams, that could be very interesting for us.
Because while I would argue that Shanahan has been the best play-caller in the NFL since at least his last season in Atlanta, he's still never had the personnel, injury luck, or team-building input to structure an offense in exactly the way he would like. Until (hopefully) now. Adding Aiyuk was ultimately done to replace Sanders, but with Aiyuk's YAC ability, he can do some of the things Deebo can as well. How will teams guard against a stable of wideouts who can win match-ups outside or motion into a wingback and take an inside handoff on a fuggin tackle trap at any moment? Or jumbo slots who can stretch linebackers into space in the passing game on one play then block down on them to clear an off-tackle run on the next? All the while worrying about the only NFL fullback who people still know by name and the world's best tight end?
The mismatch potential and versatility of Shanahan's big slot/wingback experiment is tantalizing. And while the hope is that Aiyuk can slide smoothly into Emmo's snap count in 2020, if all else goes according to plan, perhaps he doesn't have to quite yet.
But it would be a lot cooler if he did.
P.S. He also returns kicks.