Welcome: DT, Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
![Perfecting the “I’m at the club, and I know that guy across the room” celebration [USA Today]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1588290468243-RWBRDZP20U9P1PP6E3X1/kinlaw+icon.jpg)
Perfecting the “I’m at the club, and I know that guy across the room” celebration [USA Today]
The first of our deep dives into our incredibly small 2020 draft class. I’ll be using the GTFO Man rating system to evaluate the pick then go in-depth on the player and how they’ll be used at the bottom of the post.
Spoiler Alert: this is a Solomon Thomas situation. All the draft maneuvering was done perfectly, they got who they wanted, and they added draft capital by trading down a slot. Whether this turns out to be a slam dunk or a giant missed opportunity on Wirfs/Jeudy/Lamb is going to be dependent on whether or not Kinlaw’s play matches his tremendous physical ability.
GTFO Man
Good Evaluation: As always, this grade is TBD until they actually play, but will take a look at the bottom.
Top Tier: A+. The Niners said Friday morning that both Kinlaw and their second first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk were among the "six foundational players" that they'd seen while evaluating this draft. So given that, this is a no brainer.
Fills Need: A-. With so many starters and key backups returning, there were really only two positions (or three, if you count right guard) where a rookie could come in and start right away. Three-tech was one of them.
Our current options at the position are rotational players, stop-gap options, guys coming off injury, and/or guys who are "too young to tell." As a prospect, Kinlaw dwarfs all of the above, and as an added bonus there isn't THAT much developmental overlap (i.e. bringing in a new guy hindering the development of another young guy; like if we were to draft a corner here and then bench Moseley without knowing how good he could become). Solly has had plenty of time to prove himself, Taylor is coming off a late-season ACL injury, and asking Givens to go practice squad-to-starter would be a lot in year two.
So realistically, the grade should be an A. The only reason I'm giving an A- is that this pick lends more credence to the idea that everyone along our defensive line needs to be a great player and that we will ALWAYS be spending high picks on defensive linemen to accomplish that. We have now spent three of four of John Lynch/Shanahan's first-round picks (picks 3, 2, and 14 overall) on defensive linemen, despite already having two or more first-round picks spent on the position group at the time of each selection. More defensive linemen play rotational roles than really any other position on our roster, so I understand that we'll always be on the hunt for depth and eventual starter-level replacements. But obviously, there are sustainability issues if we're always spending our highest pick there. When there are classes that are weaker along the defensive line, when we have fewer first-round picks, and/or when we have bigger roster holes that we need to address, committing so strongly to the defensive line won't be possible. At some point we need to be able to field a strong defense without complete and utter dominance along the D-line.
To be fair, there are extenuating circumstances that imply this may be the end of our constant big-time capital expenditure at the position. Solly didn't pan out as expected, Armstead didn't breakthrough as a pass rusher until last year -- after Bosa and Ford were added -- and DeFo leaving not only takes away our All-Pro three-tech but also puts us in a position where one of his backups (Sheldon Day) is gone, and nose tackle DJ Jones, three-tech Solly, and occasional interior rusher Ronald Blair all have their contracts up at the end of the year.
In general, it's more frustrating than it is unreasonable, largely because the draft fell in almost perfect fashion for what we wanted and players like Tristan Wirfs, Jerry Jeudy, and CeeDee Lamb were all available at 13. But ultimately, you can understand -- given their incredibly high grade on Kinlaw -- the decision to spend another giant chunk of capital on the position group.
The hope is it's the last time we spend that type of capital at the position for quite some time.
Optimizes Slot Value: A-. Sliding down one spot, adding a pick, and still getting the player you wanted -- a player who could have gone in the top ten and no one would have batted an eye -- is always a slam dunk.
It's only an A- because -- in an ideal world -- we could have moved down further. With the pick after us the Broncos were clearly going wideout (so clearly that they've already drafted two wideouts as I type this) and were also rumored to be moving up in the draft. It's incredibly nit-picky, and I would assume the reason why the Niners took their entire draft clock to make the pick at 14 was that they were indeed trying to move down again (it takes two to tango after all). But in a draft where we desperately needed picks, it would have been nice. We got a fourth-rounder to move down one spot, but moving down two or three could have potentially netted a late third-rounder (with a late round pick in return) or even two fourths.
Manages Future Capital: A. Gaining a fourth-round pick for what is functionally nothing. That'll play.
Bio
Javon Kinlaw is clearly a large man, but it’s surprising quite how big he really is and how well he carries that weight. While two inches shorter than DeFo and 30 pounds(!) heavier, he certainly doesn’t look it. Like Deebo, he’ll have to work in the NFL to keep his weight in check, but also like Deebo, you want him playing as heavy as he can without it limiting his movement skills. You combine Kinlaw’s size with long arms (34 7/8” wingspan lands somewhere between DeFo and former Gumby prototype Aldon Smith), truly elite physical tools, and a highly-respected work ethic stemming from an absolutely absurd story of growing up homeless in D.C., and it's easy to see the All-Pro potential.
The youngest of three boys, Kinlaw moved around between D.C., Mississippi, and South Carolina in his youth, spending part of that time homeless after the age of ten, when his mother, a Trinidadian immigrant, was fired and they lost their apartment. During that time, Kinlaw and his brothers would steal snacks from CVS, hop turnstiles to ride the metro all day just to stay warm, walk over dead bodies in D.C.(!), and bounce between friends' houses and basements -- some lacking electricity or where the only running water was from a neighbor's garden hose:
Per an interview with Tom Huddleston Jr. of CNBC:
“We had a gas stove,” Kinlaw said. “We would light the stove with a little match or something, get a tall pot, boil the water, mix it with some cold water, put it in a bucket, take it upstairs, take a shower like that.”
Part-way through his freshman year, his mom sent him to South Carolina to live with his dad to have a better opportunity in a safer area. Since then he grew a whole heckuva lot and shaped himself into the player / prospect / mountain of a man that he is today. And now his father, a long-time Niner fan, has become internet famous for his post-draft reaction:
Obviously Kinlaw is a dude you can easily root for, and that work ethic will be necessary as he has a decent amount of development to do if he’s going to maximize his incredible physical tools.
College Career
In three years at South Carolina, Kinlaw started 34 of 37 possible games, being named the Gamecocks' DPOTY in each of the past two years and garnering First-Team All-American recognition in 2019. His production during that time does not jump off the page (18 TFLs, 10.3 sacks) but if you watch a full game of tape it's clear there were mitigating circumstances. You see, Kinlaw is the first South Carolina defensive lineman to be drafted since 2014 (Jadeveon Clowney) and only the second defensive player taken during that time (defensive back Rashad Fenton went in the 6th round last year). He was a bit of a one-man wrecking crew on defense.
While a Bama defensive lineman or a player like Derrick Brown, whose partner on the interior DL was drafted in the second round this year, had teammates who could punish offenses for double teaming, South Carolina definitely did not. So naturally, entire offensive gameplans went out of their way to double team and avoid Kinlaw for all four quarters.
Take Kentucky for example, a game in which Kinlaw recorded only a single tackle. What doesn't show on the stat sheet is that he lived in the backfield in the first quarter and disrupted the Wildcats' offense so much that, from the second quarter on, I saw only 2 or 3 snaps where he wasn't double-teamed. While there's plenty of refinement needed to Kinlaw's game and he needs to be much more consistent, the media and coaches were able to see his impact during awards season. I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of top-tier college production given the circumstances.
Scouting Report
Let's talk about the physical tools. In terms of speed and power, the man is practically a cheat code. His first step is truly unfair for a man who is, again, 6-5, 324 pounds.
Take a look at this snap against North Carolina:
Kinlaw is the nose tackle in the center of the frame. He's the guy who's not only firing off while everyone else is still in their stance, but he's already engaged before the ball is even halfway through the air to the quarterback. His snap-timing isn't consistent, but when he hits it, he is alarmingly fast off the line. At times he simply shoots through a gap untouched, which seems nearly impossible given his size…
Granted, those quick shots through a gap often come with balance issues, as seen in the play above, which is a trend for him. At times he sacrifices his position and leverage for a chance to make a play. That could be while shooting a gap (granted, he did still make the play in this case), or when he gets stood up and his pads turned because he's tried to slip to the side instead of holding his ground. With improved discipline, the hope is that we can harness that first step speed without leaving open lanes inside.
When someone does try to block Kinlaw, he shows a powerful punch and a great straight arm, using his length and tremendous strength to keep offensive linemen off of his body. Against the pass, it's a good starting spot to set-up pass rush moves and can transition effortlessly into his monstrous bull rush, which can put linemen on skates in a hurry.
Here he is (above the right guard) using his bull rush to embarrass a 350-pound redshirt senior from Alabama…
And (above left guard) showing the sustained power he brings, despite a “double team” from Georgia…
His straight-arm also allows him to read-and-react in the run game, where he shows the lateral agility of a much smaller player as he slides down the line and collapses gaps. He keeps his head up and does a good job finding the ball, even if you'd like if he were to track play flow just a tick faster. While he is likely too tall and his body type too long to become a monster double-team eater, he's got all the traits to become an excellent stacking-and-shedding presence in the run game.
In terms of his pass rush toolkit, Kinlaw has a solid chuck-and-rip move and uses his long arms on a surprisingly agile swim (over left guard)...
And while his mechanics aren't the cleanest, there's plenty of potential for them to get there. In part because his rare big man agility allows him the flexibility and hips of a much smaller player. In part because he ragdolls a lot of very large men with his big-time punching power (over right guard).
That kind of ability to force an overset and then chuck a guard out of position with violent punches and yank downs is a great building block for any number of pass rush maneuvers.
He needs to clean up his technique and get more efficient in his movements (pretty much across the board), but those are all coachable areas, and Kinlaw is known as a very coachable and hard-working player. For me the question lies in the two traits that are the hardest to project in defensive line prospects: instincts and pass rush fluidity.
Sometimes a player's instincts improve after a new coach explains things differently, or, with increased field experience, that player develops a new level of comfort in reading and reacting before plays develop. But you can't always teach the mental-processing speed to decipher keys and reads and the confidence required to trigger into action before a play develops. Sometimes a player has just gotten by on physical skills and will never have great instincts, no matter how hard they try. Yes, players can take big steps forward, but relying on instinctual improvement is and will always be a bit of a crapshoot. Kinlaw isn't amazing in that regard, but he's not bad either. There’s certainly hope that he can close the gap, and if he can’t then at least it's not as important along the interior as it would be at say, inside linebacker. This isn't my main worry...
Regardless of how much you teach pass rush moves and the technique required to execute them, the ability to string together multiple moves and counter on the fly is something that some players have and some players don't. Every defensive lineman comes in with a pass rush plan and every offensive lineman has a plan to counteract that, and when the first attempt doesn't work, how quickly and effectively you move to your counterattacks is often what separates Pro Bowl performers from first-round busts. That was the #1 reason why Nick Bosa had such an incredibly high floor coming out of college. He was a hand-fighting technician who already showed the ability to execute a move and then -- when an offensive lineman countered or adjusted over the course of a game -- move fluidly into an effective counterattack without having to think. Kinlaw has a couple moves. He has the potential to have a couple really good moves. But he has not yet shown the ability to string them together when his first attempt is stopped.
With professional reps, a greater technical proficiency, and a better understanding of how these moves string together, can he get there? Absolutely. But regardless of work ethic or coaching, this is always the gamble you make when you take a player who hasn't yet shown that ability on film.
Fit with Niners
Kinlaw is a three-tech in our defense, where his size and speed will find more one-on-one matchups and his length and upright playing style will be less exposed to double teams. He’ll get his reps in 2020 but it’s hard to say how impactful this rookie class will be given the many questions as to mini-camps and off-season preparation based on COVID stuff. Regardless, Kinlaw’s not a plug-and-play starter who should be expected to slide into the massive snap count left in DeFo’s wake. He's got some developing to do before he can take on that kind of workload.
While his tools seem perfect for the attacking style of play of our Wide 9, you wonder if he can keep himself in control enough to develop his instincts and refine his eyes and technique or if he gets caught up in the aggressive nature of the scheme and it hinders him long-term. It’s an odd balance having a player who is perfect for a certain scheme but who also might have benefited starting his career in a less aggressive scheme and/or as two-gapping end where he can read, react, and develop his fundamentals. Luckily, Kocurek is one of the best DL coaches in the business and we have enough depth at the position that we can play other bodies there if he starts developing too many bad habits early.
All that being said, he still should lead the team in snaps at the three-tech. To start, I would guess he plays mostly on passing downs, although I might be worried about lane integrity against the Russell Wilson and Kyler Murrays of the world, while rotating more with Solly and whoever else is healthy at DT on run downs.
Due to the surrounding talent we have on our defensive line, it’s equally likely that Kinlaw has an Aldon Smith-like rookie year of incredible efficiency as the coaches pick-and-choose his deployment to match his strengths or that Coronavirus issues delay his development. Considering our aggressive approach to ring-chasing in 2020, the hope is that he starts showing out sooner rather than later.