2021 Preview: Offense

Would be REAL CHILL if we have red zone trips ending like this [Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group]

Four questions (and four attempts at answers) that could shape our offense this year.

Should Trey Lance be starting?

[Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group]

No.

To be fair, I understand the appeal. After all, there are only two instances in my life where I can remember cackling with glee during a preseason game and both involved our rookie signal-caller. His first career pass completion:

TREY LANCE. 80 YARDS.#KCvsSF #NFLPreseason pic.twitter.com/ixGwWzCcgj

— NFL (@NFL) August 15, 2021

And when Shanahan finally showed him in an inside-out option look with Mostert going wide:

🚀 pic.twitter.com/FM23IpyNfG

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) September 8, 2021

I’ll put out an in-depth write-up about our option game once we get into the thick of the regular season, but the CliffsNotes version is this: LOL

I’m too removed from coaching to know what the terminology for this play is called, so I’ll just call it QB Counter Read. In the simplest of terms, our offensive line runs counter left—a blocking scheme that we already know from past years—while Lance has the option to keep the ball running inside to the offensive left or hand it off to Mostert, who has an unblocked (or “naked”) sweep to the right. The first defender this puts into a bind is the end man on the line of scrimmage (orange triangle), who is our read key.

On the snap, Lance sees that the defensive end is flat-footed and trying to play both him and the running back. If the end were to crash down the line it would be an easy give. If he were to immediately widen, it would be a keep. But since he’s flat-footed, and a defensive end, and Mostert still has a jet pack strapped to his back, it doesn’t matter how much the end tries to read and react off the option mesh. He’s getting beat outside.

Also highlighted above is the inside linebacker. Yes, he could theoretically scream outside to try and cut off Mostert before he can get the edge. If combined with the defensive end crashing down the line, the two defenders would basically be switching gap responsibilities, effectively replicating the squeeze-scrape technique used commonly to combat option plays. However, everything about our blocking says that this play is counter left. So unless told specifically not to, the linebacker needs to stay true to his reads. Because if he was to guess wrong and immediately chase Mostert towards the sideline, a Lance keeper would feature a convoy of Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey lead blocking onto air. The linebacker has to stay put through the handoff, which means—by the time he makes contact with Mostert—the ball carrier is already ten yards down the field.

TLDR: no flat-footed defensive end is gonna be setting the edge against the fastest man in football on a fly sweep.

But I digress. And despite all the tantalizing potential of Lance’s arm talent and running ability, he is still a work in progress. A work that is far closer to completion than we likely thought when we drafted him, but a work in progress nonetheless. While the Niner staff—as well as Lance himself and his private coaches—have done a tremendous job of cleaning up his throwing mechanics, those improvements still waver when he’s hurried or pressing. He’ll clean it up with time, but at the moment, it leads to bouts of inaccuracy. 

While Shanahan’s offense may make things easier on quarterbacks, that’s only after they get comfortable in his notoriously complex scheme. This is the same core offense that took a thirty-year-old Matt Ryan a year to get accustomed to in Atlanta. Expecting a rookie who has played one game in two years to immediately pilot it without issue is simply unrealistic.

After seeing clusters of inaccurate throws and short passes rocketed a bit behind receivers on routes across the middle, it’s hard to make the claim that right now, for the 2021 season, Lance is a more efficient passer than a healthy Garoppolo. This is especially true given how much we like to rely on in-breaking routes and chunk plays to guys like Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk.

But the best argument IN FAVOR of starting Lance right away isn’t really thinking about 2021. Instead, this argument posits Lance’s development as an extension of Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hours concept. In short, give the kid as many reps as possible so that he can master the craft as quickly as possible. Under this thinking, a second-string Lance would be losing both valuable game AND practice snaps, so—by not starting him—we’d be stunting his growth. Like many Gladwellian concepts, there’s legitimacy to parts of this concept but issues as well.

First off, this assumes that Lance won’t be getting any practice snaps or seeing the field if Garoppolo is the starter. More on that later, but it’s safe to say that won’t be the case. Second, it simplifies the idea of growth to the point where time spent is mutually exclusive: you’re either getting reps and growing or you’re not. This fails to look at how growth can occur outside of game reps through film study, meeting rooms, side work with coaches, etc. Next, it neglects the inherent downside of immediate playtime. Whereas practicing the violin to become first-chair in the LA Philharmonic only has the potential pitfalls of growth inefficiency (if you’re practicing the wrong way or with the wrong teacher) or burnout (a potential downside of literally anything), we only need to look at the recently jettisoned Josh Rosen to see how the idea of playtime = progress is more complicated in team sports. Throwing someone “into the fire” is a nice expression to use by suits in pre-game shows, but it’s not especially productive if all they do is burn. While Lance seems to have the team support and mental makeup to avoid the crippling fate of a high draft pick thrown to the wolves, putting someone into play before they’re ready always comes with the risk of developing bad habits or debilitating mental blocks. And finally, the 10,000 hours approach doesn’t take into account team success. This is a group with championship aspirations, and Shanahan is trying to tow a line where we can win now and later, rather than one or the other.

Are we really running a two-quarterback system?

[Randy Vazquez/ Bay Area News Group]

Not in week 1 at least, as Lance is still recovering from a minor bone chip in his finger. But given the way Shanahan rotated quarterbacks in our final preseason game (and the fact that he’s openly stated that both QBs will have a role moving forward), there’s a natural curiosity as to how much we’ll really see Lance and how effective a true committee approach can be at the position.

In general, football heads and media members alike are equally skeptical of a two-quarterback approach—especially on the NFL level. And as the importance of the position has grown (and the mythology of its importance has grown exponentially), so too has that skepticism. You’ve undoubtedly heard the oft-repeated idiom that “if you have two starting quarterbacks, you have no starting quarterbacks.” If you haven’t, expect to hear it plenty this season. Any Garoppolo or Lance miscue will likely be followed by a meathead color guy saying something along the lines of “you gotta wonder if they can’t get in a rhythm because they’re coming in and out of the game like this.” If there’s a miscommunication with a wideout, questions will undoubtedly follow about whether “either quarterback has gotten enough reps in practice to get on the same page with his guys.” 

To be fair, these are all legitimate concerns. No coach wants less reps for his players, especially when that player touches the ball on every snap. And miscommunications and mistakes can arise from lack of familiarity. But if you’re doing a two-quarterback system right, the practice reps that you’re losing should be offset by the practice reps your opponent loses while preparing for two separate offenses.

While rare, quarterback rotation is something we’ve seen before. Our fan base has actually seen it multiple times. Colin Kaepernick had a few run plays each game as he got brought along slowly as a rookie, but that could hardly be considered a rotation. Joe Montana would get pulled for Steve Young at times, but that was more along the lines of Bill Walsh trying to get the best out of two Hall of Farmers at once. Even Montana, when he was a rookie, would come in for Steve Deberg during red zone trips. But probably the most successful instance of full-on quarterback rotation was the 2006 Florida Gators, who rode a senior Chris Leak and a battering ram freshman Tim Tebow to the BCS Championship. More recently—and perhaps more importantly, on the NFL level—the gold standard has been the twilight Drew Brees and Taysom Hill combo. 

Shanahan has openly referenced the Saints duo as a framework for what the Niners may do with Lance—especially in how the threat of a QB run game opens things up offensively. But in this case, our change-up is considerably more dangerous than theirs, as Lance is not only a tremendous athlete, but he—unlike Hill in his rotational role—can actually throw the ball. Perhaps we see Lance as a match-up-based change-up, sprinkled in like a wildcat formation that actually works. Perhaps he sees the field as regularly as he did in our preseason finale. At the very least, I think he gets good play on short-yardage situations and in the red zone, where his running ability can help the offensive arithmetic and his play-action potential will force defenses to make some tough decisions.

While most teams likely cannot (or should not) run a two-quarterback system, there are reasons to believe that the Niners can be the exception. We have one of the top offensive minds in all of football, two players with distinctly different styles and strengths, a strong locker room run by veteran leaders, and a young quarterback who we’re trying to groom to be our 2022 starter. There will be hiccups, and you have to imagine that the first time Lance puts the ball on the ground off an option mesh, Tim Ryan or whoever his regional away-game-equivalent is will remind you of this fact. But if the Niners can weather the early storm and get into a groove playing both Jimmy G and Lance, this could be our most exciting offense in decades. 

And that is exactly how Shanahan plans to bridge the present and the future.

What does our extra beefy wideout corps mean for our offensive identity?

[Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images]

After roster cutdowns, the six wideouts on our opening day squad average 214 pounds, making us one of the thicccer receiving corps in the NFL (and that’s including Deebo at a dubious listed weight of 215). A filled-out Brandon Aiyuk is the lightest of the bunch at 200 pounds, with former running back Jalen Hurd topping them off at 230, but what’s really keeping the average weight up is the fact that this is the first roster of Shanahan’s tenure that has simply declined to keep a traditional slot receiver.

During the ShanaLynch era, the Niners have always rostered at least one player to fill the role of a smaller, quicker slot receiver. Whether it was Trent Taylor (5-8, 178 pounds) or Richie James (5-9, 185 pounds), their job was to create separation underneath on short-to-intermediate routes and act as the quarterbacks’ security blanket. So why the change of heart now? 

Granted, James was put on IR just before cutdown day, so it’s not like the Niners are just done with him (although since he was put on IR before the roster cutdown he is NOT eligible to return later this year). But the decision to keep all bigger bodies in the receiving corps despite keeping one more wideout (6) than they have in the past, strikes me as a calculated one.

If I had to guess, there could be a few reasons behind this decision. First off, the slot receiver as a security blanket was cool in practice but largely nonexistent in reality. With the exception of Taylor’s rookie year back in 2017, none of our slot-type bodies have come close to replicating the kind of play that [insert undersized white receiver from New England] made a living off of. When we needed a short completion underneath, it usually went to Kittle—who often split out into the slot and replaced a “slot-type body” anyways—and our second man up was typically Kendrick Bourne—who did the majority of his damage on slants and square ins from out wide. The last time our slot receiver felt like a slot receiver was Shanahan’s first year, before Taylor’s explosiveness was sapped by injury, and as part of an offense that was more of a hybrid between what Shanahan wanted to run and what Jimmy G—who was obtained mid-season—was used to with the Patriots. That meant more shotgun sets and more of a reliance on option and pivot routes from slot receivers like Taylor. Four years later and with a roster shaped to his liking, perhaps Shanahan figured the drawbacks of an undersized slot outweighed the benefits.

The second more obvious reason for the change is that Shanahan wants to run the ball, and a bigger roster of wideouts will allow him to do that. When Taylor finally came back from injury last year, it was his superior blocking that kept him ahead of James in the pecking order until the latter’s breakout game against Green Bay. When Dante Pettis was deep in Shanahan’s dog house, it was often a lack of urgency and physicality that sent him there (and kept him there) for long periods of time. Ultimately, I think Shanahan got fed up with the outside runs that we sprung so easily in 2019 getting shut down last year because of a single missed block on the edge. So he sought out a receiving corps filled with willing and capable blockers. By focusing more on size and physicality out wide, Shanahan is likely hoping to eliminate the sporadic edge blocking of last year that often turned a fifteen-yard gain into a five-yard one and a would-be house call into a third-and-short.

I’d also guess that this change—like our constant attempts to bolster the interior line—has something to do with the Super Bowl loss. As stated before, that game included an inordinate amount of uncalled holding calls. And while the lack of offensive holding was more obvious and showed up more readily during the Chiefs’ big plays, the lack of defensive holding—in conjunction with Chris Jones—stymied our passing attack. Shanahan has always prioritized separation ability from his wideouts, but perhaps his opinion on what that means—like his opinion on the benefits of a quarterback who can create off-script—has shifted in step with the NFL’s changing enforcement of their rules. Since defensive holding has plummeted in lieu of pass interference, bigger wideouts are more likely to be able to fight through grabby defensive backs at the line and create defensive PI calls down the field. Sure, we’re poking at theoretical margins here, but Shanahan’s attention to detail and his ability to be one step ahead of the curve when it comes to offensive trends is one of the things that makes him such a great offensive mind. 

Finally, our focus on XXL wideouts certainly points to an interest in finding a way to lighten the offensive burden on Kittle. We kept one more wideout and one fewer tight end than we normally do, which likely means that (A) the staff is happy with Charlie Woerner’s progression, and (B) our wideouts will be tasked with doing some of the things Kittle does when he’s lined up in the slot or in the wing. Kittle’s style of play and tremendous blocking ability mean that he’ll always be an injury risk, and the best way to minimize that risk is to get him a breather every once in a while. Since his emergence as one of the NFL’s premier tight ends, we’ve been trying (and failing) to do just that. But with a stable of wideouts who can all block down into the box and two would-be “jumbo slots” in Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings, perhaps this is the year where we can finally give Kittle a break.

Have we finally fixed our interior OL issues?

[Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Alex Mack will be a massive upgrade at center over the rotating door we had at the position last year, and the presence of Jake Brendel on the practice squad means that Daniel Brunskill can focus solely on right guard—a starting position that he all but secured after the struggles and ensuing injury of Aaron Banks. Mike McGlinchey has put on 25 pounds of solid weight in the off-season to help him deal with bull rushers on the edge, and—entering a quasi-contract year—seems focused and motivated to clean up the sporadic pass protection whiffs that routinely infuriate our fan base. Barring injury, our offensive line will definitely be better than last year’s unit. But how much better? And what happens if someone misses time?

Our track record at offensive guard hasn’t been stellar. Banks—who we wanted to start right away—struggled mightily in his only preseason action and then missed the rest of training camp with an injury. While he’s now healthy, it would be difficult to expect much—if anything—from him in his rookie year. After regressing in 2020, Justin Skule slid inside from tackle to guard before going down for the season prior to training camp. Colton McKivitz, last year’s fifth-rounder, didn’t even make the active roster. He now resides on the practice squad. While he had a rough start to the preseason, he settled down and looked better than he did last year. But again, he’s on the practice squad for a reason. If we get anything from him it’ll be a bonus. If there’s a bright spot it’s been the play of Tom Compton, who was greatly hindered by last year’s nonexistent off-season and an injury he sustained mid-season. Word out of camp is that he returned a much better player, and the staff seems confident that he can step in on the interior if called upon. But what does that look like?

Outside, there are just as many questions. Fifth-rounder Jaylon Moore has acquitted himself better than anyone could have expected given his draft position, but he had some struggles in the first preseason game and may not be ready for heavy snaps. While his future looks bright (be it inside or out), you never feel great about a Day 3 rookie being your swing tackle. Shon Coleman finally wrapped up a three-year stint on the team in which he played in 0 games despite theoretically being our swing tackle. And Skule—as noted above—is both hurt and potentially destined for the interior. While Moore likely gets the nod if either Williams or McGlinchey misses time, we may be looking at… all-purpose swing Tom Compton?

Ultimately, you’d be hard-pressed to find many squads who are THAT deep at offensive line, and I am cautiously optimistic that Compton can fill-in for spot duty if needed. There’s also the classic “throw Brunskill at the problem and move someone into his place” approach, but after a full calendar year of that, I think we can safely say that isn’t the best outcome for anyone (including Brunskill). A world where Banks took the starting job and Brunskill could learn behind Mack while being a true swingman across all five positions would have naturally alleviated many of our concerns. But alas, that isn’t the world we live in.

Go Niners 🏈👍