2021 Preview: Defense

Before we jump into the preview, I wanted to give a shoutout to Johnny Holland, the Niners’ linebacker coach who stepped away from the team a week ago to deal with a relapse of multiple myeloma.

Holland has been with the Niners since Shanahan came onboard, first as a linebackers coach, then an outside linebackers coach and run game specialist, and finally a linebackers coach once more when DeMeco Ryans ascended to the role of defensive coordinator this offseason. While Ryans gets much of the fanfare (and rightfully so), Holland surely played a role in shaping an undersized nickel safety out of BYU into a first-team All-Pro linebacker and a little-known prospect from Arkansas whose 4.73 forty-yard dash plummeted him into the fifth round into one of the surest tacklers in the business.

Just a reminder that @DreGreenlaw secured the NFC West title in the most epic way. 🔥

🎥: @49ers pic.twitter.com/N12lZC6wcm
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) May 14, 2020

While it can often be difficult to evaluate the impact of a single assistant coach on an NFL football team, Holland’s track record speaks for itself. This guy fucks. Coach Holland, wishing you a speedy recovery so we can see you on the sideline in the red and gold once again.

Now, onto the three (cause I’m running out of time) questions.

What changes under DeMeco Ryans?

*[Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images]*

A preseason in which many of our starters were held out for most, if not all, of the games doesn’t tell us much about the style and scheme of our new defensive coordinator. But there are a few things we can infer from the off-season as a whole. Let’s start with what won’t change.

Two years ago, the move to a 4-2-5 nickel base and a Wide 9 alignment up front quickly turned Robert Saleh from a DC on the hot seat to one of the most sought-after head coaching candidates in the country. While Saleh is off to the Jets, Kris Kocurek—our fiery DL coach whose hiring brought the Wide 9 in the first place–is back, and there’s no reason to fix what’s not broken. The Niners will continue to use the same base fronts and alignments that they’ve had so much success with over the past two seasons.

The same could be said for the faces. With the exception of Richard Sherman—who only started five games last year and was typically less effective than Emmanuel Moseley during that time—nearly everyone in our starting lineup is a familiar face. In essence, the only new starters are Tavon Wilson at strong safety—assuming Jaquiski Tartt’s prolonged injury through camp means he won’t immediately retake his starting role—and Samson Ebukam, who—despite being a potential breakout player for us this year—may be tasked more with piloting our Bravo and Turbo units than lining up entirely with the ones.

In terms of what might change, I think we’ll be more aggressive. Mostly because that was openly stated by Shanahan at an early off-season presser when talking about Ryans vs Saleh:

"DeMeco's an aggressive guy. I always messed with Saleh because I said I don't think he's ever lost a dollar in his life gambling because Saleh doesn't want to gamble too much. I think DeMeco will do that a little bit more. Sometimes there's a little risk in that but sometimes there's some reward also. We'll see how he finds his way with that. It takes time though. But I don't think it's going to take DeMeco too long."

Like any concept that’s co-signed by your drunk uncle who barks at the TV screen while complaining about how soft people have become about concussions and gender pronouns, aggressiveness on defense is a complicated thing. You obviously want your players to be aggressive. They must have an aggressive mentality and be confident in their film study, read keys, and instincts in order to dictate game flow in what is inherently a reactionary position. But aggressiveness schematically can be hit or miss.

The Baltimore Ravens (and really, nearly all of the AFC North) have long been one of the NFL’s most aggressive defenses, building from back-to-front by investing in tons of secondary talent so that they can dial up lots of man coverage while leading the league in blitzing every year. The Bucs, Steelers, and Patriots (and Patriots off-shoots) are similarly aggressive, which makes it easy for people to attribute “aggressiveness” with defensive success. But you know what other defenses have been near the top of the league in terms of blitz % the past few years? The Jets and the Texans. And obviously, they suck.

While aggressiveness can work on a schematic level, it’s often just a catch-all term for any newly hired football coach. Whether it’s offense or defense, no one rolls up to the podium of their first press conference and is like “we’re gonna win by being more conservative.” Aggressiveness, as they say, “gets the people goin.” That doesn’t mean more aggressive = better (see: Erickson, Dennis). Often times, it doesn’t mean anything.

It’s also worth noting that some of the best defenses in recent memory—like Vic Fangio’s squads in Chicago or our defense in 2019—have been some of the least aggressive schematically. The pass rush is still fierce, the players still fly to the ball and arrive with bad intentions, but in terms of X’s and O’s, these teams are regularly near the bottom of the league in blitz percentage and the top of the league in zone coverage. Instead of dialing up man and extra rushers, these teams focus more on keying tendencies, making little tweaks in alignments and stunts, and limiting big plays.

Robert Saleh’s defenses clearly fit that mold. He was at his best game-planning the shit out of offenses and making assignments and communication crystal clear while relying on his front four to generate the pressure required to burden the offense with a rapidly ticking clock. On early downs, he ran variations of Cover 3 and quarters as heavily as anyone in the league. When everything was humming, this turned big gains into small gains and small gains into nothing. It shut down even elite offenses because a defense like that, in theory, has no real weaknesses. But if that pass rush wasn’t getting home, you’d sometimes get the sense that you could get dink-and-dunked to death. That’s what injuries caused near the end of 2019, and it’s why—when injuries ravaged our d-line early in 2020—Saleh adapted by running more man coverage and blitzing more to generate pressure. Against the majority of offenses, it worked. But against the elite units, we had some ugly moments.

So what does “more aggressive” mean for our new defensive coordinator? Ryans inherits an incredibly deep and talented front seven, a free safety whose position-less first years in the league have made him a scheme versatile chess piece, and one of the best man corners in the league. My guess is that what he’ll do with all this talent is try and split the difference between the past two years. I’d expect a continuation of the trends we saw last season—more man coverage and more blitzing—but as more of a polished second-pitch than as a reactionary response to a lengthy list of injuries. To be clear, I still think we’re primarily a zone defense, alternating single and two-high looks with lots of split field coverages. Again, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But there’s enough smoke around the belief that we’re shifting to more man coverage that I buy the shift in philosophy.

There will likely be times where Ryans will think a four-man front can get home but he’ll send an extra guy just in case or where he’ll hop into man coverage on early downs in hopes of setting up a more difficult third down later on. In essence, he’ll gamble more. He’ll take more risks. At times, that may burn us in a way that we weren’t used to under Saleh. But it should also make us less susceptible to death by a million paper cuts. I don’t know if the product will be better or worse, but I’d expect more variance.

Is our defensive line better than in 2019?

Until Kinlaw actualizes much more of his potential, it’s hard to rank a unit without DeFo over a unit with DeFo. The dude is one of the top three people on the planet at doing what he does. So I wouldn’t go so far as to say this year’s line is better. But it could be deeper, especially along the interior.

While there may not be a single superstar on the inside, we have 5-6 dudes with starter-quality talent for two tackle spots (or one in our Turbo packages when Armstead slides inside). Even coming off an injury-riddled 2020, we know the unique blend of size and speed that DJ Jones possesses. Kevin Givens, Zach Kerr, and Mo Hurst (a sneaky breakout candidate if he can return cleanly from his ankle injury) are all first-step mavens who fit our aggressive one-gap scheme perfectly. There’s hype coming from camp that Kentavius Street is finally putting things together into a complete package. And of course, there’s Javon Kinlaw, our sophomore behemoth whose size/power/explosiveness package is near-unmatched in the league. Our interior line is so deep that Darrion Daniels, the second-year UDFA who the Niners feel has a legitimate chance to become their starting nose tackle down the road, had to be stashed on the practice squad.

Outside there are more questions, but (if healthy) loads of talent. Armstead continues to be Armstead, a 6-7 280-pound forklift who routinely puts linemen on skates. Bosa is back on the outside, poised to stake his claim as one of the five best edge rushers on the planet. While people around the team seem cautiously optimistic that Dee Ford—who’ll be on a snap count to start (and possibly throughout) the season—has put his neck issues behind him. I’m high on Samson Ebukam—who will be tasked with doing some Dee Ford things, some Kerry Hyder things, and (depending on how many snaps Bosa gets right away) some Nick Bosa things—and I think Jordan Willis will slot in nicely into the rotation in his first full year in the scheme. Arden Key? I’m not expecting much, but there are crazier things than betting on high upside and the general dysfunction of the Raiders.

But let’s not underestimate the DeFo/Armstead interior rush duo—which was easily one of the best pass-rushing interior tandems that I’ve ever seen. Our 2019 squad featured a Turbo package that had four dudes with legitimate Pro Bowl talent, and—when healthy—the other two rotational pieces were peak DJ Jones and Ronald Blair. Unless Kinlaw takes a big step forward in year two, we can’t make the claim that this defensive line is better than that one. But perhaps it’s deeper. And given the heavy rotations that Kris Kocurek likes to employ and our track record with injuries, perhaps that’s more important?

How big of a concern is our lack of depth at cornerback?

Well, we just signed Josh Norman, so I would say “pretty big.”

Playing more man coverage is nice in theory, and if we have Verrett on the opposing #1 with Moseley on their #2, I’m thumbs-up emoji all the way. K’Waun Williams is one of the best nickel corners in the league, Jimmie Ward’s experience playing corner makes him more than capable to roll down into the slot, and we have one of the best coverage linebacker corps in the NFL. If we’re talking our starters, we match up well against nine out of ten teams, and that’s certainly good enough to play a bit more man here and there. But after those starters, things could get dicey.

The more you want to play man coverage the more you’re shifting both the skillset that you’re looking for in a corner and the amount that you’re prioritizing the position. Up until this year’s draft, the amount that the Niners prioritized corner could be considered next to none. We drafted Ahkello Witherspoon in the third round of the first ShanaLynch draft then didn’t address the position with a big-name addition or a draft pick in the first two days until now. It was a conscious decision, as Lynch and Shanahan openly prioritized a front-to-back approach to building defense. Spend more capital to load up the defensive line—which we’ve done—while saving money on cornerbacks due to our DB-friendly scheme. But if we go too much more towards man coverage, the math—and the type of player we’re targeting—may change.

Richard Sherman is gone, and—even if he wasn’t dealing with his own issues off the field—he’s a zone corner through and through. Witherspoon is off to the Steelers—via the Seahawks, who (of course) picked him up before shipping him out of town when they planned to start someone else. And the Tim Harris experiment finally ended with a whimper. He got some good play at the beginning of camp after a strong showing in OTAs, but after getting beat a few times then suffering a groin injury, that ship has finally sailed. RIP my hype train of blind hope.

So backing up our starters we have two rookies and two veteran zone corners. Josh Norman, who peaked in 2015 and had a three-year run in Washington that ended disastrously in 2019. To his credit, he rebounded well in Buffalo and played a meaningful role for them in 2020, but even so, he’s 33 and I’ve always considered him primarily a zone cornerback. The same could be said for the guy who got waived to sign him. Dontae Johnson has bounced on and off the roster twice in the past week. I’m sure we’ll see him at some point again this season. While his physical profile also leans more towards a Cover 3 corner, he played unquestionably his best ball last season when we were in more hybrid coverages. Perhaps this is a sign that we won’t be employing more man coverage after all? But then you look at our rookies.

Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas are both handsy, aggressive cornerbacks whose college experience was mostly in press-man coverage. Despite a lesser draft position, Lenoir seems to have surpassed Thomas on the depth chart and is likely the team’s top backup outside. Since Emmanuel Moseley hasn’t practiced all week due to a hamstring injury, maybe that means Lenoir is our week one starter?

Wondering when the Niners will address the future (and present?) of the cornerback position has been a recurring theme of every off-season. In the past, we’ve been bailed out by the emergence of Emmanuel Moseley (2019) or the healthy return to form of Jason Verrett (2020). Is this the year it finally bites us in the ass?

The hope is that our incredibly talented front seven can pick up the slack if one of our starters misses time. And as long as we’re healthy up front, we can always lean more heavily on zone coverage if someone like Johnson or Norman are pushed into major snaps. All this to say, there are ways to hide someone if we need to, especially against lesser offenses. But it’s not the best spot to be in, and if there ends up being a crack in our defense, it’s likely our cornerback depth.

Go Niners 🏈👍

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2021 Preview: Offense