Day 1 Watchlist
a lot of guys who block and some other guys
Much to the chagrin of bachelorette parties everywhere, the draft has been split into three separate days, so I’ll be splitting up the watchlist into three parts to match it.
Barring a massive trade up or down, this Day 1 primer should include our future first-round pick, but as we get deeper into the draft I’ll do more highlighting of interesting dudes rather than try and make an exhaustive list of prospects we might select.
The numbers beside each prospect denote their aggregate big board rank (not my personal ranking), and I’ve included only guys ranked 15-45 in this first write-up (with one notable exception near the end).
I’ve put marginally helpful (and consistently inconsistent) emojis under everyone’s names for shorthand purposes. Players with the ⭐️ after their names are E Wong favorites.
Now, who’s ready to watch some goddamn offensive tackle highlights? 🙋🏻♂️
16. OT, Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
6’6” 324 lbs.
🥊 = heavy hands
👊 = physical with a capital F
🚜 = road-grader
It’s probably not hard to guess Fuaga’s strengths: He might just be the best run-blocking lineman in this class. But he’s far from a one-trick pony, as his intelligence, technique, and cinder-block hands make him more than capable in pass protection as well. He’s not an A+ athlete like some of the other guys in this class, but he’s mobile enough to mirror in pass pro and climb to the second level in the running game. More than anything, he’s a body mover, and while there’s debate about whether or not he should slide inside to guard to minimize reach and quickness concerns against elite edge speed, he’s an experienced starter who will immediately improve a run game wherever he winds up.
17. OT, Troy Fautanu, Washington ⭐️
6’4” 317 lbs.
🏅= elite athlete
👊 = physical with a capital F
🃏 = versatile
The mauling tackle out of Washington was ranked eight spots lower on the big board just a few weeks ago, giving me an unrealistic expectation that we might be able to steal him late in the first. Alas, after dominating the combine’s athletic testing and assuaging length concerns by measuring in with one of the largest wingspans in the draft, GMs seem to have come around to the idea that this 30-game starter with a tone-setting demeanor and violent high-level run-blocking ability can indeed play outside in the NFL. Thus, his value has spiked well out of our range.
There’s certainly a valid argument that he projects BEST at guard, but there’s an equally valid argument that he could theoretically be a plus performer at any of the five spots along the line, which gives him incredible versatility and greatly raises his floor.
18. DT, Byron Murphy, Texas
6’1” 297 lbs.
🦶= great first step
🔋 = relentless motor
🧩 = scheme fit
A classic one-gapper, Murphy is stout, plays with leverage, and wins with an explosive first step and the ability to smoothly turn speed into power. While massive teammate T’Vondre Sweat gets more of the attention, Murphy is the consensus better prospect, and his size and length limitations would be mostly hidden in our wide 9 scheme. He’s a high-energy guy with the tools to be a very productive interior pass rusher, but you’d like to see better hand usage, since he won’t be able to blow by NFL blockers with his first-step alone.
19. OT, Amarius Mims, Georgia ⭐️
6’7” 340 lbs.
🏅 = elite athlete
🤯 = limitless potential
🐸 = a bit green
Of all the players on this list, Mims is probably the one most likely to be mistaken for a create-a-character in Madden, as his blend of size and athleticism is—quite frankly—unrealistic. A five-star recruit out of high school, he’s a little high-cut but otherwise has prototypical size and movement skills and has shown just enough high-level play on tape to think he can put it all together with more seasoning. But the man needs more reps.
Playing on a team constantly flooded with high recruits, Mims only totaled eight career starts in college–all this year–and while his vast potential is obvious, his pro-readiness is debatable. He’s got many of the large man issues you’d expect, like struggling to consistently stay low and leaning and lunging too much when he’s on the move, but he has the feet and the athleticism to overcome them with time and proper coaching. I don’t want to imply he’s all projection. His tape is quite impressive, particularly in pass protection. But there’s only so much you can take away from someone’s film when they’ve started single-digit games.
20. WR, Brian Thomas Jr., LSU ⭐️
6’3” 209 lbs.
🐆 = speed demon
😮 = big-play guy
🫨 = got that shake-n-bake
While the top three wideouts are in a class of their own as prospects, Thomas has a chance to be just as good as any of them down the road. The 2023 FBS leader in touchdown receptions (17), Thomas is big, fast (4.33 forty, 38.5” vert), and–as a former basketball recruit–excellent at the catch point on jump balls. Those sort of prospects are always coveted for their high ceilings, but what intrigues me most about Thomas’ game versus past toolsy burners is that he is unusually shifty and excels at getting open early.
Those big and fast straight-line guys are usually not great at the line of scrimmage and many require an open runway to separate—a luxury they are rarely (if ever) afforded in the NFL. But while Thomas was used mainly as a top-off speedster in college, ran mostly simple routes against off-coverage, and will need to greatly improve the precision and craft in which he runs routes, he’s got some innate “get open” qualities that should translate well. His shiftiness, short-area quickness, and elusiveness to slip defenders early off the line or late with his deep speed make me more intrigued by the package he brings than in similar height-weight-40-time heroes of past draft classes.
Is there a world where he never puts it together and becomes just another “three S” receiver (slants, streaks, screens)? Sure. That’s always the risk you run with a guy who ran a limited route tree in college and needs to clean some stuff up. But there’s potential here for much more, and—if we do take a receiver in the first round—I’d like to swing on a guy who adds something we don’t have (a top-off man) with the potential for more.
Note: A quick aside before we move into the cornerbacks. This OT crop is amazing and deep. This WR crop is amazing and deep. This CB crop lacks top-end, but is… deep at the right point in the draft to where it’s potentially useful for us. There are a lot of guys who are valued somewhere in the 20s-to-30s, all with different strengths and weaknesses and potential scheme fits. So if we do wind up with a corner at Pick 31, it’s probably because the right one fell to us.
22. CB, Nate Wiggins, Clemson
6’2” 185 lbs.
🐆 = speed demon
🏅 = elite athlete
🍄 = ideal size
Wiggins has top-tier length, quickness, and speed. He blazed a 4.28 forty at the combine (and made it look easy) and—unlike many corners who put up those fast 40 times—that speed shows up regularly on tape. Like on this chase-down tackle and forced fumble against North Carolina (which was one of two of these sort of plays he made this season):
He’s sticky in coverage, has good ball production (18 pass deflections and 3 picks over the past two seasons), and shows the chops to make the transition to the pros, but the issues that have popped up (grabby at the top of the route, late to turn for the ball, slow to trigger) point to a dude who was just a much better athlete than everyone he faced in college and developed some lazy habits because of it. His thin frame is also a real concern and it shows up in his issues shedding blocks and missing tackles. Despite those concerns, the skill, size, and athleticism are there for Wiggins to become a top-flight corner at a discount price. But there’s work to be had to make his transition a smooth one.
23. DT, Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois ⭐️
6’2” 304 lbs.
🧩 = scheme fit
🔋 = relentless motor
😮 = big-play guy
Does it make sense to take a defensive tackle in the first round given the makeover we just had at the position and the other, more pressing needs on our roster? I would normally say no, but man, oh man, does Newton fit our scheme like a glove.
Newton is a twitchy athlete with excellent lateral quickness, a wide array of rush moves, and a knack for disrupting plays all over the field (to the point where they played him at DE at times). He plays with great leverage and hand use, is relentlessly slippery and active, and tallied 103 pressures over the past two seasons, a ludicrous number that (unsurprisingly) led all interior defenders during that time. Despite his athleticism, I don’t know if he has that true S-tier Aaron Donald/Quinnen Williams sort of get-off and he lacks the ideal size, bulk, and length of a traditional DT. But it’s hard to imagine a better place for him to showcase his talents while minimizing his drawbacks than in our one-gapping, aggressive, wide-9 defense.
24. CB, Cooper DeJean, Iowa
6’1” 207 lbs.
🦅 = ball hawk (yes, I realize this is an Eagle)
🃏 = versatile
👀 = high-level instincts
Despite what the internet may say, when Cooper DeJean gets selected in this year’s draft, he will NOT be the first white cornerback drafted in the past twenty years. In fact, he won’t even be the first white cornerback drafted from the University of Iowa in the past one year (teammate Riley Moss was picked in the third round last year).
Despite missing the last month of the season with a broken leg, DeJean–who is built like and returns interceptions and punts like a running back–was still named the Big Ten’s top defensive back and return man. His ball skills, route recognition, and open-field running instincts are all top-notch, and he’s unquestionably a plus athlete, but he can look a bit stiff at times on tape—especially when moving laterally. That’s a potentially significant red flag for teams like the Patriots who ask their corners to play a lot of man coverage (let’s be honest, it’s better for everyone that he does NOT wind up in Boston). Luckily for us, we are not one of those teams.
DeJean is at his best in zone coverage, where he can read route combinations and quarterbacks’ eyes and break downhill toward the ball. When he can do that, he’s a disruptive force in the passing game, a ballhawk, and a physical force against the run. He’d honestly be at his best in a scheme whose primary coverage is Cover 2—where he can roll up, press guys at the line, and jump quick hitters—but our base Cover 3 defense isn’t too bad of a fit either.
25. DE, Chop Robinson, Penn State ⭐️
6’3” 250 lbs.
🏅 = elite athlete
🤯 = limitless potential
👷🏻♂️ = work in progress
Armed with an S-tier football name and the supreme athleticism to match it, Chop is lower on these boards than I would have anticipated. After testing out of his mind at the combine, including a 4.48 forty and a 1.54 10-yard split that set a record for fastest ever for an edge player weighing 250+ pounds, he’s drawn plenty of comps to Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. While the athleticism is comparable, I wouldn’t go that far. Those other two guys were much more advanced and productive by the time they entered the NFL.
Right now, Chop is more traits than production (only four sacks last year), and his lack of size will likely always be a problem versus the run. There’s work to be had in his pass rush plan, counter moves, and anchoring strength, but his burst, speed, and bend come with some nice hand usage and flashes of him becoming a more complete player. That is to say, he’s not just a “bend it and send it” type of prospect who gets by entirely on athleticism and inevitably flames out in the league. He’s taking steps in the right direction. It’s just a matter of when/if he puts it all together. Ever since Dee Ford’s one healthy season five years ago, we’ve been looking for a true speed rusher opposite Bosa, and—with Leonard Floyd in the fold—Chop could be brought in to fill that gap down the road without being forced into starters’ reps right away. It’s rare to find a guy with this kind of athletic profile at this position and even rarer to potentially get him at the bottom of the first round. While I’m not as in love with his current game as the other players I’ve starred in this roundup, I am in love with the potential, the scheme fit, and the positional value at this point of the draft.
I dunno wtf a “FreakDaddy” is (nor do I want to), but you can’t teach that kind of athleticism and bend.
26. OT, Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
6’7” 328 lbs.
🏅 = elite athlete
🤯 = limitless potential
👷🏻♂️ = work in progress
Another giant guy with small guy movement skills, Guyton has been a late riser in the draft process, as he performed well at the Senior Bowl and his athleticism was impressive throughout the testing process. There’s some injury history here and much to improve and iron out in terms of technique (otherwise he’d have been more coveted earlier in the evaluation process), but the upside is high. Some wonder if his size and lack of leverage/power will cap him as a run-blocker, but the tools are there–particularly in the passing game–for Guyton to develop into a high-level starter at right tackle with a potential future on the left side. He just may take a little time to get there.
Note: Guyton is OT7 in this draft and marks a consensus tier cut-off along the offensive line. The rest of the guys on this list either play inside—which hurts their value—have a lower ceiling, or are much more raw than the guys above. If there’s a move up to grab an offensive lineman, it will probably include moving up to grab one of the guys already mentioned.
27. CB, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
6’1” 195 lbs.
👔 = pro-ready
🃏 = versatile
🧠 = high IQ
If you thought Chop was a cool name, get a load of Kool-Aid. Long, physical, smart, and super experienced, Kool-Aid has been a starter at Bama since stepping on campus as a five-star freshman, and he plays the game with an obvious level of intelligence and maturity. A smooth mover who is physical all over the field, he’s probably at his best rolling up and pressing guys but is adept at playing off the ball as well—making him a nice fit with our style of physical outside zone coverage.
More of a technician than an elite athlete, Kool-Aid is versatile and pro-ready—even if he may not have the ceiling of someone like Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) or Wiggins (Clemson). Despite racking up 23 pass deflections over three years, he only registered two picks in his college career, and getting his head around and finding the ball down the field is an area where he could improve. All this points to a dude who will likely be a good starter and a long-time pro but will live more on consistency rather than generating turnovers and splash plays.
28. C/G, Graham Barton, Duke ⭐️
6’5” 311 lbs.
🃏 = versatile
👔 = pro-ready
🪨 = high floor
A three-year starter at left tackle in Duke’s zone-leaning scheme, Barton’s lack of length and struggles with outside speed rushers almost certainly peg him for inside work in the pros, but there’s a ton to like about his athleticism, experience, and overall ability at either guard or center (where he started five games as a freshman). His movement skills in particular have been vastly underappreciated throughout the process.
He’s a grinder and he’s excellent in the run game, with more than a few scouting reports referring to his blocking as “stubborn,” which is a not-even-remotely underhanded comment when it comes to offensive linemen. But he’s also got the athleticism and light feet to excel on second-level and space blocks. This is a dude who had the blocking chops and quickness to hold his own as a left tackle against Jared Verse (a likely top-15 pick this draft edge rusher from Florida State) sliding down into the interior. He’s got high-end potential and a very high floor. The biggest question is whether he’s available and whether we value an interior lineman enough to take one in the first round.
29. WR, Adonai Mitchell, Texas
6’4” 192 lbs.
🏅 = elite athlete
👷🏻♂️ = work in progress
💣 = boom/bust prospect
The George Pickens comps are spot-on, but with an even higher ceiling. Mitchell looks, moves, and makes highlight reel plays like a high-level pro. His fluidity and athleticism are truly rare for a player of his size, which results in an impressive catch radius and some circus-level grabs, but right now he’s a collection of tools and highlights more so than a sum of the parts.
But goddamn, have you seen those parts? Now, can those parts coalesce into a genuine top-end receiver? It’s certainly possible. And you can bet that with his rounded routes, poor blocking, snap-to-snap inconsistency, and shared Texas connections, Shanahan would live in his ass until he got there. But not everyone gets there. What separates elite receivers from the rest is they always have a plan, they’re always able to adjust from that plan, and they’re able to do that because they don’t waste any motion. So if the Niners are going to roll the dice on a guy with a single season of college production—and as a second receiver at that—they’d better be certain he has the mental makeup and work ethic to get there.
30. C, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon ⭐️
6’3” 334 lbs.
👊 = physical with a capital F
🎶 = tone-setter
👾 = looks like a Minecraft character come to life
The positional value for centers is not particularly high–even if it’s a spot that we seem to value a bit more than others. So it’s a true testament to the ability of Powers-Johnson and Barton that two centers are considered first-round prospects in this year’s draft. Powers-Johnson played mostly guard until this past season, when he flipped over to center, was a unanimous first-team All-American, and won the Rimington Award for the country’s top interior lineman. Needless to say, the move was a success.
Powers-Johnson is smart, strong, and built like a brick wall. Or a LEGO. And I’m not even sure I mean the LEGO people. Maybe just a building block. I honestly expected him to be a bit better of an athlete given his grade, but he’s a dude with explosive power whose smarts and physicality will endear himself quickly to teammates and coaches, and the only time his athleticism is an issue is when he lunges and misses. He is relatively new to the position and you sometimes see that in his technique, but while others may test better and look better in shorts, when the pads come on, he’s blowing the barn doors off and putting asses on the ground. That makes for a guy who can start right away with high-end potential.
31. WR, Ladd McConkey, Georgia
5’11” 187 lbs.
🍔 = undersized
👔 = pro-ready
✋ = sure-handed
If Charles Dickens was from the Deep South, Ladd McConkey would be the name of an orphan child exploring the disparity of wealth through his youthful hijinks. Instead, he’s a sneaky athletic route technician who excels at getting open on short-to-intermediate routes. He’s got quick feet, great burst in and out of his routes, and excellent route-running ability. But he lacks size, bulk, and strength, which shows up regularly on the line of scrimmage, down the field, and in contested catch situations. This all points to a guy who is either a slot receiver or maybe a z-receiver in a scheme that greatly protects its outside receivers in stacks and bunches. There are schemes like this, and—back in the Trent Taylor days—we might have been one of them, but—in our scheme—the first round is a little costly for a slot receiver who can’t play full-time because he can’t play the point in a bunch set or dig dudes out in the running game.
If we were truly shifting to more empty and lighter personnel sets, I could see McConkey feasting out of the slot. The man can get open underneath and that’s something we clearly needed in the Super Bowl. But at the moment, I like the prospect more than I like the fit.
33. DE, Darius Robinson, Missouri
6’5” 286 lbs.
👊 = physical with a capital F
🦾 = go-go gadget arm length
🍄 = ideal size
Robinson has always looked the part, but “looking the part” is often code for “not living up to your physical tools.” As a grad student at Missouri last year, Robinson was moved outside the DE and finally put it all together, leading the Tigers in tackles for loss (14) and sacks (8.5). A true power rusher, Robinson is a poster child for why arm length can matter along the d-line. He’s jarring at the point of attack and uses his arms to keep blockers at bay before wearing them down and shedding them aside, which honestly makes me think he might be a better fit as a 3-4 end than in our system. While his hand usage isn’t bad, he’s still pretty new to edge play and is going to have to figure out something other than the bull rush. Even if his bull rush is…
Yeah, it’s nice.
I have some lingering questions about his closing speed and–in turn–what his ceiling is as a pass rusher, but if he can put the tools together he could resemble a bit of the inside-out flexibility that Armstead and Omenihu have given us over the years.
34. OT, Jordan Morgan, Arizona
6’4” 312 lbs.
👊 = physical with a capital F
🎓 = experienced
🚜 = road-grader
Big and strong with the kind of grip and hand strength to erase defenders once he gets latched onto them, Morgan started 38 games over five years – missing chunks of time due to various injuries (including a 2022 ACL tear) – before starting all 12 games and being named first-team All-Pac 12 as a super senior. Morgan is fluid in space, strong at the point of attack, and physical in the run game, but he’s not as quick-footed as many of the other tackles in this draft and that can show up in pass pro. When he locks on and is strong off the snap he typically does well, but when he can’t make that initial contact, he can get off on his landmarks, and–given he lacks ideal recovery speed and has arms on the shorter side–improving his landmarks will be key to him staying outside on a full-time basis. Morgan certainly could be a tackle, but some project him inside at guard. If we’re taking him here, it should be because we see him as a tackle.
35. CB, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
6’0” 188 lbs.
🥊 = Scrappy McScrappersons
🍔 = undersized
🤕 = injury risk
A long and slender corner with a feisty, physical playstyle and the versatility and athleticism to play inside or out, Rakestraw is sticky in coverage and shows good instincts in both man and zone coverages—even if his ball production and top speed are less than ideal. He’s at his best when he can be physical at the line of scrimmage, re-route receivers, and break on underneath routes, but he may need to bulk up some to continue excelling in that capacity on the next level. The additional weight would also help him against bigger-bodied wideouts and blockers and help avoid injury—which has been a concern throughout his career. The schematic fit is intriguing, but this seems a bit high given the question marks.
36. WR, Troy Franklin, Oregon
6’2” 178 lbs.
🐆 = speed demon
😮 = big-play guy
🍔 = undersized
It’s pretty clear what Franklin’s strengths are. He’s a speed merchant through and through, with elite top-end speed and the ability to accelerate quickly to get there. He’s a ready-made vertical threat and coverage top-off man with better route-running skills than you might expect from someone with that kind of profile. But his weaknesses? Those are pretty expected. He’s tall and lanky and rail thin, which shows up at the line of scrimmage when battling physical coverage and catching the ball in traffic. In general, strength is a concern and so is the catch point, where he had a 10% drop rate this season.
37. CB, Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
6’0” 180 lbs.
👔 = pro-ready
🃏 = versatile
🧠 = high IQ
A smart and savvy defender with man and zone versatility and a high football IQ, Lassiter’s a smooth mover with good feet who is rarely out of position. His athletic traits aren’t excellent and neither are his size and strength, which is part of the reason why some believe he’ll be pushed inside in the pros. There’s also the question of his lack of ball production. But he plays hard and competes and Georgia coaches rave about his leadership abilities, which points to a solid floor. But it also points to a guy who you probably don’t want to take this early—especially if his landing spot is in the slot.
38. WR, Keon Coleman, Florida State
6’4” 215 lbs.
🍄 = ideal size
✈️ = jump ball god
🫂 = separation issues
A big-bodied basketball player-type and throwback X receiver who excels with physicality, size, and his ability to box out and win big with contested catches—catches that border on insulting. Catches like this one:
The problem is what happens before the catch. His speed is okay and good enough to make him a vertical threat given his size and the way he throws that size around, but his route running is inefficient, he doesn’t have a lot of burst, and—in general—he’s going to have issues separating on the next level. Plenty of big guys who can’t separate have flamed out in the NFL and plenty have succeeded as well. We’re just not the best place for those who want to succeed.
41. WR, Xavier Worthy, Texas
6’1” 172 lbs.
🐆🚀💨 = fast as fuuuuuu
😮 = big-play threat
🍔 = undersized
You may have heard that Xavier Worthy set the combine record for the fastest forty ever (4.21). And, if you’ve ever seen him play, you wouldn’t be very surprised by that fact. Dude has jets and is a big play waiting to happen, whether it’s down the field or by blazing by defenders after the catch—even if he’s currently much better and more consistent at the latter. In general, improving consistency across the board will be paramount to his success, but his greatest hurdle (and the potential cap on his ceiling) is how massively undersized he is. He’s not a physical player, he gets knocked off routes, and he’d need a pretty significant bulking phase to fix those problems. But also…
In many ways, the DeSean Jackson comps are warranted, and Worthy is a dude who presents enough versatility that we could find ways to get him the ball. But if we’re drafting anyone in the first round at receiver he needs to be someone who can stay on the field for run plays and get himself open rather than be schemed touches. Whether Worthy can get there with his size is the big question.
53. OT, Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
6’4” 329 lbs.
🏅 = elite athleticism
🤯 = limitless potential
💣 = boom/bust prospect
Kingsley is the only prospect I included who is outside of the consensus top 45 because—due largely to his youth and incredible physical talent—he’s expected to go somewhere near the bottom of the first or top of the second at our biggest position of need. It’s easy to see how Kingsley, his size, and his five-star blue-chip pedigree could eventually shape into a top-tier tackle, especially if he’s allowed to come along slowly in the kind of run-first, tackle-friendly offense that can protect him in pass-pro early on in his career. Are there concerns with how raw he is and how much technique work he needs despite starting two straight years at tackle? Yes. Which is likely why he’s this low on the consensus board despite having the raw tools of a guy you typically find in the top half of the first round. But he’s also 330 pounds and was No.3 on Bruce Feldman’s annual freak list after it was reported he ran a GPS-tracked 21.5mph in a game last season. There’s some boom-or-bust here for sure, but if this wasn’t such a stacked OT class, he’d likely be off the board by the late 20’s.
TLDR
I don’t really want any of the corners. Not because I don’t believe in their talent but because there are a lot of guys with decent grades through the second and third round, and I’d rather take a swing on one of them on the second day than bypass an elite-level prospect somewhere else. Of course, the ideal situation is that we get an elite-level prospect at offensive tackle. Picking at No.31 in any other draft class, that would be a pipe dream. But in this draft, with a little bit of trade ammo, it’s a definite possibility.
I have my concerns about Guyton, but if we can get him or one of the other top 7 tackles we should be thrilled, particularly if we can do it without giving up a second-day pick. When we had two third-round picks to wheel and deal with I’d have been more interested in moving one to hop up a few spots and secure a top 7 tackle. Now? I still badly want one of those guys, but I don’t like the idea of picking fewer than three times in the first two days. Not in a draft this deep with talent through the top 100 picks. That said, our roster—for the next year at least—is still so loaded that we’re looking at 10 draft picks and, at max, 5(?) spots open on the active roster. That means some picks are likely on the move.
Shipping out a fourth is more amenable than a third, but it would only give us a 2-3 spot jump at best and that may not be enough to get who we need. Of course, we also have three of those to deal with. Trading a future pick is also possible, and—if we don’t love the shape of the next draft class—that could be the move. But you're almost always paying a premium when you ship out a future pick and—to move the needle all that much in the first round—that pick would likely have to come in (at least) the third round of a year where we’re destined to have more immediate needs and more roster spots available. If it wasn’t for the depth of this class, you could make a genuine argument that trading a pick in this year’s draft to move up sets us up better for the present AND the future. But it takes some mental gymnastics to get there. And this class is quite deep.
Realistically—with our glaring need along the OL, our abundance of picks, and the remarkable depth of this offensive tackle class—a move seems more likely than not. And, for the right price, it could make sense. But it has to be for the right guy (IMO, that means Mims or better) and we can’t leverage our future for it. I’ll keep hoping that some combo of fourth-rounders will do the trick, but I’m not too confident.
If we CANNOT get one of those top 7 OTs, then I want the best available player with genuinely elite potential. We’re fortunate in that “best available” will likely align with a position of need at this point in the draft. This could be a place for Chop Robinson or Brian Thomas Jr. or we could bolster the interior with Graham Barton or Jackson Powers-Johnson. Jordan Morgan has been a popular pick for us in mock drafts. I have some concerns, but if the scouting staff is certain he can stick outside—I would understand and support the pick as we have the right scheme to hide some of his potential weaknesses. But if we’re sitting at No.31, desperately want a tackle, and don’t have Morgan graded significantly above the likes of Kingsley Suamataia and/or the guys from Houston and Yale (who we’ll talk about next time), we could benefit from trading down and accumulating picks in a class this deep at the position.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Draft Strats & Musings
The first step to updating that background
The city of Rome was founded in 753 BC, marking the beginning of an empire that lasted upwards of 1,200 years. During that time, they introduced the world to roads, the news, the Julian calendar, and the idea of not drinking from the same water that you bathed and took dumps in. But—as historians are apt to note—they never got over the hump and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. And, in the fifth century, a combination of in-fighting, corruption, and invading Visigoths quickly led to their demise. The empire of Rome was no more. Now, all we have are present-day ruins and the CGI backgrounds of bad sword and sandal movies to remember it by.
All this to say, the draft is important. While we currently have one of the most talented rosters in the league, any team that doesn’t constantly refuel via the draft runs the risk of quickly becoming the Chargers: a once-stacked roster that suddenly finds themselves old, top-heavy, lacking in depth, and burning in cap hell. We’re a long way from that nightmare scenario, but we saw hints of declining depth last season. They were simply masked by the fact that—for the first time in a decade—we ranked better than 20th in adjusted games lost due to injury. Thus, the more questionable parts of our roster could stay hidden. But soon, the Visigoths will be at the door.
This lack of depth can largely be attributed to the Trey Lance trade, and—to a lesser extent—the move for CMC midway through the 2022 season. We are more than happy with the picks we gave up from one of those deals, but the lack of high-round picks has started to permeate the outskirts of our roster. So with 10 picks in the draft, including first and second-round selections for the first time since 2021, now is the time to insert new starters, future starters, and depth pieces throughout our roster—both as assurances against a potential return to bad injury luck and to keep this party rolling into next year and beyond.
Because aqueducts are nice. And so is perennial contention.
Still getting boned by the NFL. You may have heard that the NFL dropped the Niners’ fourth-rounder a few spots and took away their 2025 fifth-round pick due to an accounting error. The error had something to do with a bonus payment through a new payroll system and didn’t affect salary cap compliance or give any competitive advantage, but the NFL decided to come down hard to prevent someone from intentionally making a more advantageous “mistake” in the future. The punishment seemed a bit severe, but at least I understood it.
But the Niners got absolutely screwed by the NFL’s last-second change to how they calculate compensatory picks. Stockpiling comp picks has been a major part of our roster-building strategy since the Trent Baalke days, and—rumor has it—some owners had grown butt-hurt about how effective we’ve become at the practice. This likely played a part in the NFL’s decision to change the comp pick formula overnight—a change that affects how void years are calculated and dropped the third-round comp pick we’d expected to get from Jimmy G (or Mike McGlinchey) to a fourth-rounder.
I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of exactly how the formula changed because (a) I don’t know the specifics, and (b) apparently, neither does anyone else. This is from Nick Korte, runner of OverTheCap, a salary cap site that correctly predicts comp picks a year before they’re awarded. For reference, the Bills were the only other team expecting a third-rounder (for Tremaine Edmunds) and got ambushed by this formula change.
Since the cancelation charts no longer make any sense, the changes must have something to do with void years counting as higher annual salaries than listed so that you can’t abuse the practice to net better comp picks. In a vacuum, I understand the change. But if your worry is competitive balance then it might be nice to (a) make this decision BEFORE all these contracts have been structured and signed, and (b) actually tell people about it when you do. Instead, the Niners had a third-round pick (99th overall) drop to a fourth-round pick (132nd overall). According to draft value charts, that equates to about a mid-fourth-round pick of pure LOST value.
John Lynch was diplomatic when asked about the change. Probably because the Niners had just been docked draft spots for the payroll mishap. Brandon Beane, GM of the Bills? Not so much:
“It did surprise me. I think us and San Francisco, we got a raw deal,” Beane said, adding the 49ers received a lesser comp pick as well. “I don’t want to give a full thing, but we had separate Zooms with the league trying to go through how it was calculated because by even their accounts, as we were checking with them through the year, we clearly had a third-rounder. It was a major blow because we had planned for it and San Fran felt the same way.”
Never mind the fact that the large majority of the prized third-round picks we’ve acquired over the past few years have not been due to free agency but because we’ve cranked out two minority GMs and as many minority head coaches as the rest of the league combined. This is not an exaggeration. While 2024 was a banner year for minority hires, from 2021 when the minority coaching initiative was enacted through 2023, we were responsible for 3 of the 6 minority head coaching hires. The other three included an internal promotion after a retirement (Todd Bowles) and two hires (David Culley, Lovie Smith) from the Texans’ “unlikeable Tommy Boy” owner—hires who were always meant to fail as the team blew up its roster and completed a multi-year organizational teardown.
It’s also worth wondering if this change does anything to aid competitive balance. Every NFL team can engage in the same void-year practices as we do regardless of on-field success, market, or franchise value because—unlike the MLB—revenue sharing in the NFL is so vast and distributed so equally that teams have nearly all of their cap money paid for before they earn a dime for themselves. Void years in the NFL don’t help wealthy franchises and big markets cheat the system through deferred contracts (see: Dodgers + Ohtani), they simply reward teams whose owners are willing to pay more guaranteed cash upfront. Every team can (and should) use void years to manipulate the cap. They just don’t want to because they’re more busy gaslighting their employees and threatening their fans with leaving town if they don’t pay for much-needed stadium upgrades through taxpayer funds. This change doesn’t reward the poor. It rewards the cheap.
No one is less surprised than me that a bunch of old rich white owners got mad about accounting loopholes they can (and should) be using for themselves instead of just–you know–hiring good minority candidates and then developing them into highly coveted head coaches, but it’s a bummer how and when the NFL decided to acquiesce to their complaints.
Aiyuk Update. There is none. But there are some things to note.
If Aiyuk gets traded (a scenario I still find highly unlikely) it will happen before the draft. This is a loaded receiver class and there’s no chance the Niners brass wants to get rid of their No.1 receiver before this critical 2024 season and NOT tap into this class for an immediate replacement. Star players get traded before the draft or they don’t get traded.
All-Pro(ish) corner L’Jarius Sneed was just traded for a third-round pick. Stefon Diggs was just traded for a 2025 conditional second-round pick. All this would suggest that the Niners would struggle to net the kind of first round+ return needed for them to feel at all comfortable with parting with their star wideout. While the depth of this current receiver class certainly depreciates the value of a veteran wideout on the trade market, this isn’t apples-to-apples. The Chiefs HAD to move or sign Sneed and the rest of the league called their bluff. Diggs is a bigger name but a worse receiver who turns 31 next season and has a history of forcing his way out of winning situations. We still have Aiyuk on his fifth-year option, have the cap space to pay him, and he’s on the right side of 30 with all analytics, advanced stats, and locker room chatter on his side.
I think we’d all like to pay Aiyuk sooner rather than later, both so he can continue to develop a rapport with Purdy and for our peace of mind as we enter the summer. But we’d also like to get ahead of the massive upcoming extensions of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. Contracts will continue to balloon as long as the salary cap grows. All you can do is diagnose the right guys to lock into long-term deals and sign them before other players at the same position follow suit. CeeDee and JJ are much bigger parts of their respective offenses. While Aiyuk has similar talent, we don’t want to be paying a surcharge for a usage level that we don’t ask of him, nor do we want to have those two exorbitant contracts on the books as we negotiate.
Is it time to finally be good at special teams? The new kickoff rule that the NFL ported over from the XFL will be a major wild card this upcoming season. There’s an argument that it should benefit us, as the weird 5-yard gap between the kicking and receiving teams loosely resembles stretch runs, the blocking mirrors the difficult open field blocks that we ask our fullbacks, tight ends, and wide receivers to do on the regular, and we have one the most creative brain trusts in football when it comes to scheming up run concepts.
That said, special teams have never been a genuine strength of ours, whether it’s returning kicks or covering them, so we’d be making some pretty legitimate assumptions to think that will change overnight. But we’ve already made more special teams-oriented acquisitions than usual this free agency and we’re still in the market for a new return man (or two, given the new kickoff rules), so don’t be surprised to see special teams become a more important focus than usual in our draft selections, especially for anyone taken on the third day.
General Draft Strategy
It’s impossible to know exactly who will be available at pick 31 and beyond, but I think we can zero in on a few likely positions based on our free agent moves, this draft class’ depth of talent at different positions, contract decisions that must be made in the next year, and the fact that our starting lineup has only a few real positions of need.
Our roster-building philosophy will also permeate everything that happens over the draft weekend, particularly in the early rounds. You have to pick and choose in a hard cap league and there are certain position groups that we have decided to value higher than others. Those are the positions we’re more likely to target on the first two days of the draft.
Based on all that, these are the positions I expect us to target and when.
Offensive Line
We could stand to upgrade every spot along our offensive line other than Trent Williams, and even at left tackle we’ll need a succession plan sooner rather than later. This is BY FAR the most likely direction we go at pick 31, and this draft class is as stacked at OL as any that I can remember.
A starting right tackle is certainly our priority. If a rookie can plug and play, that lets us push McKivitz inside or to a backup swing role that best suits him. A handful of these tackles may need to start their careers inside before they learn the nuances of tackle play. That’s not ideal but not the end of the world, either, as we could use improvement everywhere and it would let us bring a guy along slowly while still giving him early reps. There are also a few interior guys getting first-round grades. I don’t LOVE spending a first-rounder on an interior-only guy, but–for the right prospect–I don’t hate it either. Regardless, we need new blood and better talent up and down our offensive line, and this class is packed with it.
At times, a class’ positional depth has let teams secure quality players later in the draft, as teams become less anxious to snag their guy early because there are so many players they like on their board who could be available later. With how desperate the NFL is for good offensive tackle play, I don’t think that will be the case this year. There’s a potential tier dropoff after the top 7 tackle prospects in this class, and while there’s a chance one of those guys could fall to us at 31, a run on tackles before we’re on the clock is (at least) equally as likely. The 8th and 9th-ranked tackles are by no means scrubs, but we may need to leapfrog some teams to get a crack at that top 7. For reference, moving up just 5-6 spots in the first round would likely cost us the value equivalent of a super late third-round pick. You know, like the one the NFL just moved to a fourth-rounder due to the comp pick formula changes they just decided to apply this year.
Le sigh.
I would be shocked (and appalled) if we don’t add at least one offensive lineman on the first two days of the draft–likely (ideally) in the first round. But without a second third-round pick to wheel and deal with, the chances of us jumping up to grab a higher-ranked tackle have certainly dropped. That’s not the end of the world. Typically, just picking the available guys and hoarding picks is the right move, especially when you’re a team like us in need of an influx of capable youth. But it would be nice to have the flexibility to get aggressive if need be.
Wide Receiver
We’ve talked about Aiyuk and Jennings’ contract situations as well as Deebo’s standing on the roster both this year and beyond, but our receiver corps is massively top-heavy.
Ray-Ray’s injury really knocked him out of the offense and now he–and his punt return ability–are gone. Ronnie Bell did well for a seventh-round rookie but was a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs because he was still, after all… a seventh-round rookie.
We need to continue adding weapons and–given how hard it is for rookie receivers to play in Shanahan’s offense–we should be adding guys now rather than later. This receiver class has three guys up top who I consider home runs, but it’s an impressively deep class through the middle rounds. The second round in particular has A LOT of guys who I like, and the Niners seem to be visiting with a bunch of dudes with the intention of picking one up in either the second or third round.
I’d be surprised if we go wideout in the first round. After all, we will likely be returning our top three wideouts next season. But I would consider this the second-most likely position we draft in the first two days.
Defensive Line
No position group rotates more and needs more functional bodies than the defensive line. So despite the money and draft capital we’ve already invested in the position group, the DL will be very much in the picture throughout this draft. Before free agency, I would have said this was the second-most likely position we target in the first round. Now, I only think we spend No.31 on a defensive lineman if the exact right type of prospect falls to us.
A defensive end is preferable–we’ve basically been searching for a true speed guy opposite Bosa since our first Super Bowl–but interior guys are also on the docket, and they could present better value in the middle rounds. After signing four free agent defensive linemen this off-season, we don’t have to reach on anyone, but I’d expect we add two(ish) guys in the draft because so many of our linemen are on one- or two-year deals with potential outs after this season.
Cornerback
In theory, you’d think this would be the second-most likely position we pick at the end of the first round, and it probably is. But our roster-building principles try to minimize the spending on corners and we’ve shown that throughout the ShanaLynch tenure.
In the seven drafts under John Lynch, we’ve only drafted two corners in the first two days (Ambry Thomas and Ahkello Witherspoon) and have never drafted a corner higher than the third round. This is despite cornerback being a position of need entering MANY of those drafts. But there is some reason to believe that streak could be broken this year.
Our top four cornerbacks will all be unrestricted free agents after this year. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir were lights out for us this season and played a major part in preventing our defense from falling apart when we didn’t have our A game. And there are a lot of cornerbacks graded around the first-round turn in this particular draft class.
The signing of Yiadom makes this slightly less of an urgent need, but drafting a corner in the first three rounds seems likely—specifically one who can play outside or a guy who they believe is versatile enough to fill part of the “star” nickel role that Brandon Staley has employed at his previous two stops.
Day 3 Dudes
Tight End - Is Cameron Latu the answer behind Kittle? While he could be taking a page from the Aaron Banks developmental playbook, that’s not an assumption we should be making. Blocking is key in our scheme, so the options are always thinner for us at tight end than squads who use the position more like a large receiver.
Lynch and Shanahan have been looking for a jumbo slot/tight end type since we burned a second-day pick on the never-healthy Jalen Hurd back in 2019. It’s a search that’s gone on as long as our pursuit of a right guard who is functional in pass protection. Realistically, the closest thing we have to a true second tight end at the moment is Jennings, who is a big body and an excellent blocker but still not someone we’d put in-line or in the backfield (except for when we accidentally run the ball with him, of course).
The ideal candidate is a Kittle backup and a potential heir apparent for Juice. We love our 21 formations, but there’s really only one Juice, and–when he retires–it may be easier to replace his production with an h-back/tight end tweener rather than a fullback. Granted, we have Brayden Willis and Jack Coletto on the squad, two guys who were picked largely for that very purpose. But given our failed pursuit of Brock Wright, we clearly aren’t confident that either is ready to take on full-time TE2 duties.
Safety - Tashaun Gipson has yet to decide whether he’ll play in 2024, and—given how we started Logan Ryan over J’Yair Brown in the divisional game against the Packers—I would guess the Niners would rather add a proven veteran as injury assurance to Huf and Brown than a fresh-faced rookie.
But whether it’s Gipson or another established starter, they’ll probably only be here for a year, which would time up exactly with when Huf becomes a UFA this time next off-season. So if the Niners are looking for a full-on succession plan—or simply a guy who can excel at special teams and be shaped into a reserve safety or a future linebacker (ala Flannigan-Fowles, Greenlaw, etc.) it may make sense to grab a guy now.
Running Back - While taking a third-round running back who flames out before stepping foot on the field has become a meme at this point, Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason are both UFAs at the end of this season, and it’s very likely we take someone late in the draft (or after the draft) who we hope can make an impact a year from now.
Everyone and their mother is worried about CMC’s touch count, including myself, so it’s worth wondering if we target someone with excellent third-down ability or if we stick to a more traditional back who can one-cut and get upfield in our zone and stretch games. Given I wouldn’t expect someone to be drafted at this position until the last two rounds (at the earliest), it may be a “beggars can’t be choosers” scenario.
Linebacker - Whether or not this is a need likely comes down to how confident we are in the development of the two linebackers we drafted last year and the recovery of Dre Greenlaw. Warner is locked up the for long haul, but Dre, Flannigan-Fowles, and De’Vondre Campbell are all UFAs after this season. And for all the talk about how our defense runs through our deep and talented defensive line, what truly makes our defense uniquely special is the ability to trot out two S-tier cover guys who are also rangy and physical against the run.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Free Agency Roundup
Bolstering the middle class
Free agency can be splashy, sexy, and exciting. This year, it was none of those things. But that’s a good thing. While free agency technically runs through most of the summer, we’re likely done with major moves until at least after the draft. Here are a few takeaways from how we’ve approached this critical off-season.
Stimulus Checks. The massive spike in the salary cap has led to some truly obscene contracts over the past two months as every desperate owner, GM, and coach has been spending like it’s the first two weeks of COVID lockdown and PS5’s just restocked. Want to pay a soon-to-be 30-year-old Calvin Ridley No.1 money despite having a draft pick high enough to take one of the top three guys in a historically loaded wideout class? Sure. Have a 5’8 quarterback who you essentially gave up CJ Stroud AND Caleb Williams for? Better pay $20M/yr over five years for an offensive guard. While it may not get the juices flowing, this off-season was the perfect one to NOT get into bidding wars.
Strength in Numbers. Our depth issues along the defensive line were apparent all season and pushed us to make TWO mid-season trades for edge players last season. With the money saved from releasing Armstead, we’ve already added two likely starters and four guys to our two-deep. While we’re still hoping that one or both of Drake Jackson and Robert Beal Jr. emerge into viable contributors next season, we’ve approached this off-season in a way that insulates us in case they don’t.
Two-Year Tryouts. With so much money committed to high-end talent, we know a cap crunch is coming next off-season. To prepare for that inevitability, we’ve been adding players mostly on one-year prove-it deals and two-year pacts structured in a way where guaranteed cash is paid upfront and the second year operates largely like a team option. If we like what we see, we can keep that player for the beginning of the next era. If the ROI doesn’t fit, we can let them walk without dominating our cap. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any dead cap (each of these deals comes with void years), but we’re preparing a year early for some big decisions next off-season.
Farewells
The most significant goodbyes (in number and impact) have come along the defensive line, where five players on our two deep have departed. One-year rentals Clelin Ferrell (Washington), Chase Young (New Orleans), and Randy Gregory (unsigned) have all moved to greener pastures while Javon Kinlaw latched on with the Jets after finally putting together a (mostly) healthy season that showed some promise. But the saddest and most meaningful departure was Arik Armstead, whose sticker price simply didn’t mesh with the amount of time he’s missed due to injury over the past two years. While he was still a Top 10 DT when healthy, he missed 13 games over the past two seasons due to an injury (Lisfranc) that will likely only get worse with time. I think we were all hoping the Niners and Armstead would find a middle ground on a pay cut and a contract restructure, but–according to Armstead–the Niners’ offer was to drop his salary to $8M/year (with incentives bringing it up to a paltry $10M). Unsurprisingly, that was too big a financial hit for “The Blueprint,” who signed for $14.5M/year over three years with the Jags shortly after being released. As the first-round pick of the graciously short-lived Jim Tomsula era, Armstead was the longest-tenured 49er on the roster and–as our nominee for the Walter Payton Man of the Year four years running–he will be missed in the community and the locker room as much as he’ll be missed on the field.
Elsewhere, Sam Darnold did well enough as a backup rental to score a bridge quarterback contract with the Vikings. He’ll at least have a chance at keeping the seat warm for whatever quarterback Minnesota inevitably drafts this April. Special teams ace and part-time starter Oren Burks went to Philadelphia for a sum of money small enough that it gives us some hope that at least one of last year’s rookie LBs has shown enough to warrant a bump in playing time. Ray-Ray McCloud and Charlie Woerner both latched on with the Falcons. Isaiah Oliver–who was cut as quickly as physically possible after the season ended–landed with the Jets. Reserves Sebastian Joseph-Day (Tennessee) and Matt Pryor (Chicago) have moved on as well.
Running It Back
We offered a second-round tender to Jauan Jennings, which he’s yet to sign but likely only because they’re still working on hammering out a more significant extension. Jon Feliciano returns for a potential swan song, a sneaky important move given he was probably our second-best offensive lineman last year. Kevin Givens was the one free agent defensive lineman we retained on a one-year pact–solidifying our two-deep on the interior. Finally, George Odum, Chris Conley, and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are all guys who can play offensive or defensive snaps in a pinch, but their extensions are mostly geared toward special teams.
Shoutouts to Kittle and Warner for restructuring their deals to clear up the cap space to make these moves (and the ones below) happen, and a special shoutout to Juice, who took a pay cut to try and keep as much of the core together for another run.
The New Guys
We have four new dudes along the defensive line–all with pretty clear roles within next year’s rotation. DE Leonard Floyd (Buffalo) immediately becomes the most accomplished pass rusher to line up opposite Nick Bosa. At first considered a bust after being drafted 9th overall by the Bears in 2016, Floyd found his footing and broke out with the Rams under then-DC Brandon Staley (who knew him from his time as an assistant in Chicago). Since that move, Floyd has tallied four straight years registering somewhere between 9-10.5 sacks and 19-22 QB hits. While 31 years old, he’s a model of consistency as an edge rusher and someone whom Brandon Staley is quite familiar with. While he’s probably not as freaky of an athlete as he was when he came out of college, Floyd will be able to punish single blocks and blow by slow pass sets at a rate that we haven’t seen opposite Bosa since the ten games before Dee Ford blew out his back.
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Carolina) is our second addition on the edge, although he was likely brought in to play an inside-outside hybrid role similar to the one that Arden Key and Charles Omenihu have excelled at in the past. Gross-Matos hasn’t lived up to his lofty high-second-round draft slot in his four years in the pros, but he hasn’t been a total flameout either. Across 55 games and 32 starts, he’s registered 13 sacks and 30 QB hits. Nothing to write home about, but Gross-Matos’ size and physical profile were highly coveted for a reason and—as a long-limbed athletic guy who still needed to fill out his frame—he was largely miscast as a down lineman in the Panthers’ 3-4 fronts. Similar to someone like Danielle Hunter, Gross-Matos was always thought to be a guy who needed some time to bulk up and fill out, and we weren’t the only team to think a change of scenery could unlock some of that past potential because there was a bit of a bidding war to secure his services. The price (2yr/$18M) was higher than anticipated, but an aggressive one-gapping scheme like ours with a top-flight position coach seems like as good a situation as any to unlock Gross-Matos’ considerable potential.
On the interior, we traded a seventh-rounder for Maliek Collins, a sneaky productive starting DT for the Texans who should slot in smoothly to our system given it’s the same one he just played in. He had 5 sacks and 18 QB hits last year and should give us some pass-rush juice while Jordan Elliott (Cleveland) will be more of a run-stopper. Elliott presents some intrigue in that–like Gross-Matos–his physical profile is more impressive than his production. He’s started the past two seasons on a loaded Browns defensive line (even if he was the least memorable of those starters), and while it would be optimistic to think a guy with ten career QB hits will ever be a force against the pass, he’s still young. There’s hope that his best as a pro is yet to come, and—even if the sacks never come—we would be more than happy if he rounds out into a truly disruptive run defender.
LB De’Vondre Campbell (Green Bay) will fill in for Dre as he heals up and slot in as our SAM linebacker once Greenlaw returns. I was a bit more comfortable with Eric Kendricks–who committed to us before changing his mind and following his former head coach down to Dallas–if only because Kendricks was coming off a rebound season and has been the healthier of the two. Campbell was a first-team All-Pro as recently as two years ago but he’s been in and out of the lineup since, and when he has played, nagging injuries have affected his performance. To be fair, he hasn’t been bad when he’s played hurt, he just hasn’t been the same player we saw in 2021. This could be a major steal or a guy who is in-and-out of the lineup. It all comes down to which Campbell we’re getting and for how much of the year we’ll have him.
CB Isaac Yiadom (New Orleans) may be our most intriguing pickup. After not moving the needle much in his first five years in the league, things finally clicked for him last season. While he wasn’t a full-time starter until week 12, he finished the season as PFF’s 10th-best cornerback. The Saints wanted to keep him, but with both their starting corners entrenched (and healthy) for 2024, Yiadom moved on to bet on himself, and we secured his services for a paltry one-year deal worth up to $3M. Perhaps last season was a flash in the pan. Or perhaps Yiadom is simply a late bloomer who has finally put things together as he approaches his age 28 season. The potential return is sky-high. At the very least, he gives us cheap competition to start outside in our nickel sets—where he’ll have to fight off Ambry Thomas, Samuel Womack, and Darrell Luter Jr. for snaps.
Aerospace engineer and QB Josh Dobbs (Minnesota) replaces Darnold as Purdy’s backup. Hopefully, he won’t have to play except in blowouts, but “The Passtronaut” is already familiar with our scheme from his time with the Vikings so it should be a smooth transition. While Darnold’s arm talent is far superior, Dobbs is a smart guy and a good athlete and has shown he can play (and win) in a pinch—even if you don’t necessarily love the idea of him as your long-time starter.
Finally, CB Chase Lucas (Detroit), LB Ezekiel Turner (Arizona), and RB Patrick Taylor (Green Bay) were brought on as camp bodies with the chance to stick around as special teams aces and we replaced Pryor with OT Brandon Parker (Vegas), a practice squad reserve tackle candidate who I honestly know nothing about.
Moves To Come?
We’ll be jumping into the draft in the coming days/weeks, so we’ll talk more in-depth about our overall team needs during that time, but there are two positions that may be addressed with veterans at some point between now and the start of OTAs.
At safety, Tashaun Gipson hasn’t yet decided whether he wants to retire or go for one more chance at a Lombardi Trophy. If he doesn’t hang em up, a return to the Niners is highly likely. In case he doesn’t, we’ve been doing our homework in evaluating a few options from a safety market with a number of proven commodities and a floundering positional valuation. The Niners have already met with Julian Blackmon, who just re-signed with the Colts earlier this week, and former Jag, Rayshawn Jenkins. While there’s a chance we find mid-round value at safety in this draft class and trot out a rookie, there’s a good chance that we bolster the unit with a vet in the coming months.
The same could be said for tight end, where we put out an RFA offer for Brock Wright (Detroit) which was basically the exact same deal that Woerner just signed with Atlanta. The Lions just matched, so Wright won’t be coming to the Bay, but we’re clearly still in the market for a reliable second tight end who can spell Kittle. Maybe Cameron Latu–the 2023 third-round pick who missed the entirety of last season with a “medical” redshirt–fills that role but with a much higher ceiling. But given how we’ve been operating, it shouldn’t be assumed that’s the case.
Go Niners 🏈👍
The Path Forward
onward and upward
With the combine completed and franchise tags due today, figured it was as good a time as any to turn the page from the atrocities of Bill Vinovich and toward the 2024 season. While it’s easy to say a team should be getting better each year, that’s far from a reality in the NFL for most teams. Eventually, that won’t be the case for us either, but we have clearly improved over each of the past three years and—with one year left before we have to extend Purdy—have various means to do so again in this upcoming season. We were good enough to win it all this year. Now, we need to make the changes and improvements necessary to actually win it all before our core starts to change shape.
The Winds of (Sort of) Change. Over a week of interviews, the Niners met with at least three external and two internal defensive coordinator candidates–and even kicked the tires on Steve Spagnuolo before he re-signed with the Chiefs. The result is the promotion of Nick Sorensen to the DC position and the hiring of former Chargers headman Brandon Staley to fill the assistant head coach role vacated by Anthony Lynn’s departure to Washington.
Sorensen will be a first-time defensive coordinator and has only been with the Niners for two years after spending the 2022 season as a defensive assistant and 2023 as the passing game coordinator, nickels coach, and head of the Niners’ weekly “The Ball” meetings, which prioritized turnovers and coined his nickname of “The Ballfather.” Before coming to the Bay, Sorensen was the special teams coordinator for a year in Jacksonville and spent seven seasons in Seattle working in the secondary and special teams. A former college quarterback at Virginia Tech, he switched to defense when some dude named Michael Vick arrived in Blacksburg, eventually carving out a nice 10-year career as a safety in the NFL before switching over to coaching. While Sorensen isn’t as highly regarded as DeMeco Ryans was when he got the DC nod (if he was, he would have gotten it last year) he’s thought of highly in the coaching ranks, knows our scheme and personnel, and has extensive experience in the Seattle 3 system.
While Sorensen’s promotion is the big development, Staley’s addition is the most intriguing one. Staley was ousted from the Chargers after three seasons and zero playoff victories and developed a reputation for some seriously questionable game management decisions while he struggled to consistently connect his complex defensive schemes to his players. The Chargers had their fair share of impressive defensive outings during Staley’s tenure, but the overall body of work was subpar at best. Injuries and a lack of depth–which got the Chargers’ GM fired alongside Staley–played their part in Staley’s defensive performances, but the end product wasn’t nearly what it should have been. Despite the issues with the Chargers, Staley is widely regarded as one of the smartest defensive minds in football, and in his last–and only–stint as DC he helped the 2020 Rams lead the league in both points and yards allowed. He’s a disciple of the Vic Fangio gap-and-a-half 3-4 scheme, which operates in stark difference to our 4-3 Wide 9, but his front versatility makes his defense malleable enough that he was heavily considered for the Niners’ top job. If the Niners weren’t so dead-set on keeping the majority of their defensive scheme intact, perhaps Staley would have been the choice, but in this unorthodox set-up, they likely get the best of both worlds. While there’s always a threat of “too many cooks,” I would guess that Staley operates entirety on the defensive side of the ball and helps Sorensen in weekly game-planning while installing some of the coverage concepts and fronts he has that align with our defensive scheme.
For better or worse, the Niners always seem to do things a little bit differently, and this could be a lucrative relationship for all involved. I understood the urge to stick with the same overall scheme that got us here and that has had success for so many years running–especially with 2024 such a critical year before our roster core faces some difficult decisions–but I appreciate that the Niners understood they also needed an influx of new ideas. Given the dearth of established DC candidates this late in the hiring cycle, securing both continuity and a sprinkling of new concepts from one of the better defensive schemers in football has to be considered a win, even if a first-time DC who–unlike Saleh or Ryans–is not an obvious “future head coach” type always carries some form of risk. Staley’s presence helps mitigate that risk, and–if things go according to plan–the combo has high-end potential, especially given the talent they’ll have to work with.
Going Wide. Brandon Aiyuk and his looming contract negotiations are the big ticket item on the rumor mill this off-season, but we also have a decision to make on Jauan Jennings, who is currently a restricted free agent.
Let’s start with Jennings, our run-blocking, fight-instigating, third down-securing jumbo third wideout who has proven abnormally clutch for being the team’s fifth (at best) option in the passing game. As an RFA, the Niners have a choice to make as to what level of tender they can offer him: first round, second round, or original draft round. Since Jennings was a seventh-round pick (thank you again, our third-day scouting department), the lowest tender would be risky at best. Jennings at the cost of a seventh-round pick is an offer many a team would jump on. A first-round tender is out of the question, which leaves the second-round tender–which has ballooned to $4.8M after the salary cap spike–or something more creative.
In past years, the Niners have offered RFA tenders to players such as Ross Dwelley and Jeff Wilson, only to then extend those players instead on one-year deals that come in at a lower pay rate (and cap hit) than the RFA tender but that are fully guaranteed. Something like that is certainly possible here, as is a two-to-three-year extension if the rate is friendly enough. Jauan has undoubtedly earned his money, but he’s more valuable to us than anyone else. While someone like Kendrick Bourne left for a decent contract and a much bigger role in the passing game, it’s hard to imagine Jauan getting offers for anything beyond a third receiver role. And while other teams may throw more or may not have guys like CMC and Kittle soaking up targets, Jennings’ biggest impact on a down-to-down basis is in his run-blocking, a trait that we probably value in our wideouts more than any other team in football. Considering he was a blown pass protection away from a likely Super Bowl MVP award, his value may never be higher from an outside perspective, which means a one-year deal could be the most likely option as an extension a year from now could be—time adjusted—cheaper.
As for Aiyuk, we’ve seen how tough Shanahan can be on his wideouts and how hard it is for rookies to contribute immediately when they don’t yet have the practice, preparation, and blocking commitment that he demands. This year Aiyuk was the top-graded run-blocking wideout in football AND was top 3 in yards per route run, yards per catch, and a litany of other stats–advanced or otherwise. He was an All-Pro, one of the top man-beaters in the country, and fits our offense like a glove. He too is more valuable to us than anyone else, but–unlike Jennings–it would be easy to see him racking up 100+ catches and 1500+ yards with regularity on a team that throws the ball more and shares it less. 2024 is not the year to mess around with breaking in a rookie wideout and Aiyuk is the exact type of player we should be extending.
For me, any talk of trading Aiyuk only begins if his representation is unreasonable AND someone is offering a high first-round pick in return. I consider the top three wideouts in this class all NFL slam dunks, and–if we could be assured we’d get a pick high enough to return Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze–I would at least take the call. But all three of those guys will go in the top 10 of the draft. In fact, there’s a very real world that all three go in the top 6. And–with teams picking that high likely not on a “win now” timetable–it seems unlikely that kind of compensation is forthcoming. In fact, the overall talent and depth of this receiver class likely depreciates Aiyuk’s trade value. While there are still plenty of playoff teams and cuspy contenders who believe–perhaps rightfully so–that a true alpha No.1 like Aiyuk could put them over the top, that’s not a deal we’re looking for when we have one more year of Purdy on his rookie contract. The most likely outcome is that Aiyuk skips OTAs and holds out (or holds in) until sometime around the beginning of training camp before we secure a long-term deal and he reports. The only core player the Niners have actually traded rather than extended around the start of training camp was DeForest Buckner. Whereas Robbie Gould, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa all played the waiting game until sometime in August.
Adjusting the Ledger. While the next off-season has always been the time earmarked for big roster changes, there are a few moves we could make this year to set up an easier path forward. The majority of those revolve around extensions, both good and bad.
Dre Greenlaw and Juice are both in the last year of their respective contracts, with $9.6M and $7.6M cap hits and dead cap figures under $3M. That makes both of them extension or cut candidates. Since dropping either of those players would fundamentally change our scheme on one side of the ball, I would expect them both to get extensions. While there’s certainly some risk in extending a fullback in his 30’s and a linebacker fresh off an Achilles tear, there are contract manipulations to hedge some of that risk and there’s a chance the circumstances of those two players could actually make retaining them cheaper than otherwise. I’m saying there’s a chance. I’m not saying it’s a good or bad one.
The big-ticket contracts of two other veterans also loom as a precursor to some potential major moves a year from now. Deebo Samuel ($28.6M) and Arik Armstead ($28.3M) are two of our three biggest cap hits this season but–unfortunately–neither is playing like it.
Armstead is entering the last year of his contract, has had significant injuries stemming from a Lisfranc issue that likely isn’t going away, and has no guaranteed money left on his deal. Nicknamed “The Blueprint” because of how he does everything right on and off the field and the team’s perennial Walter Payton Man of the Year nomination, Armstead is still impactful when he’s actually healthy (see: Super Bowl) and is a model citizen and key contributor towards the development of the rotating door of defensive line depth pieces we constantly rely on. The Niners certainly want to keep him around, but–at his current price–that seems untenable.
Meanwhile, Deebo is a true one-of-one talent and perhaps the single most unique and entertaining player in the NFL, but his value is significantly nerfed by the presence of Christian McCaffrey. Deebo’s First-Team All-Pro 2021 season–and the contract he received afterward–happened in a year when we quite literally ran out of running backs. We started Juice at running back for a game in September. At the time our backfield was injury-prone and relied mostly (if not entirely) on day 3 picks and UDFAs. While those running backs were talented, and it was reasonable to expect we’d keep finding guys who could plug-and-play every few years, none were difference-makers in the passing game and their lack of availability led to a lot of backfield touches for Deebo.
Insert CMC, who has dominated touches in the run game and is an S-tier weapon on underneath routes, and it’s become pretty clear how much their skill sets overlap. In a perfect world, we love that overlap because it’s one of the best ways we can deploy our Swiss Army Knife offense. But in a hard-capped league, this means we’re approaching a decision point. Yes, Deebo is more of a gamebreaker than CMC after the catch and if you like to blitz and open up the middle or play any kind of soft zone with regularity, Deebo becomes one of the best weapons in football and will eat you alive. But–as was depressingly clear in the Super Bowl (even if he was a bit hobbled)–Deebo’s not enough of a difference-maker down the field and struggles too much against tight man coverage to warrant the cap figure of a true No.1 wideout.
Deebo’s not going anywhere this year. Not when his dead cap figure is $14M more than his cap hit. But with a post-June 1 designation, Armstead could save the Niners a good chunk of change this season. The Niners certainly WANT both of them back in 2024 and beyond, but they might start having some difficult discussions with them this off-season about potential pay cuts to make their contracts better represent their production. That’s never an easy conversation to have with a player and an understandable one for them to balk at, but there’s a card the Niners can play here that could make it a win-win for both player and team. Guaranteed cash.
Deebo’s 2024 salary guarantees in mid-April, but with $37.5M of his remaining $52M over the next two years in base salary, there’s likely some wiggle room here to negotiate. Meanwhile, Armstead’s $28M cap hit includes zero guaranteed cash and seems ripe for restructuring, perhaps in a way that includes equal or greater cash locked in but spread out over multiple years. If nothing changes, Armstead and Deebo are potential cut candidates this year and next, respectively. With that in mind, both are potential restructuring candidates now in hopes we can avoid those fates down the road.
Trench Warfare. Both lines need addressing and with more bodies than one. The Super Bowl reminded us of how much our offensive line gets by on scheme and Trent Williams. If we want to take the next step in the dropback passing game, we need more guys who can win their one-on-one battles.
Luckily, this draft class is LOADED with offensive linemen. There could be as many as eight or nine offensive tackles taken in the first round, multiple guards throughout the first two days, and–despite positional value–two centers who might get drafted on Day 1. The offensive tackle depth in particular is impressive, with many prospects slated for the back half of the first round and early into the second possessing the kind of high-end traits you typically can’t get at the bottom of the first. TBD if we’ll actually be able to get one at the bottom of the first or if a run on the position will force us to maneuver about the board, but there’s a very real possibility of adding one or two immediate starters along the OL in the first two days of the draft.
While the tackle market isn’t great in free agency (and probably never will be), it’s an oddly deep year for interior linemen, and a lot of the big names are fresh off rookie contracts and either still ascending or in the prime of their careers. Jake Brendel is on a relatively team-friendly deal and both our guards are on rookie contracts, but the depth of the free-agent interior OL could let us add an immediate starter without spending too much money on positions we historically don’t want to shell out for. Here, as always, juggling who we think will be available in the draft versus who is available at these positions in free agency will be both complicated and vitally important. Part of me believes that enough teams are in the same situation that the free agent market for interior OL will be slow and there will be guys of merit available after the draft, but with enough contenders like the Dolphins and Ravens looking for wholesale changes along their OL, that may be wishful thinking.
Feliciano was only signed to a one-year deal but played well. Ironically, he was the journeyman right guard who actually would have (and was) blocking well upfront in crunch time before he went down in the Super Bowl. He could certainly be back, but likely only if we don’t look for a higher upside play/longer-term solution in free agency. Banks and Burford are still young. Perhaps they take the step forward this season that we were hoping they’d make last year, but we’re past the point of that being our Plan A and Plan B. There is more than enough talent available in both the draft and free agency for us to revamp our offensive line without breaking the bank.
Along the defensive line, both our backup DTs (Givens and Kinlaw) and–if we rightfully assume that we don’t keep Randy Gregory at his current cap figure–all of our non-rookie defensive ends (Young, Ferrell, Gregory) are free agents, meaning we need bodies to replenish the ranks and many of them. While Drake Jackson and Robert Beal both present potential, we need to figure out who starts opposite Bosa and who makes up the entirety of our second wave off the bench.
While I don’t think this DL crop is particularly special, it has good depth through–at least–the first two rounds, if not the first two days. This draft class as a whole is impressively deep, which makes it a great year to have 11 picks and four in the top 100, and while a run on offensive tackles could certainly lead us to take yet another defensive lineman with our first-round pick, it’s probably more likely that we go that direction at some point on the second day and at least once more as the draft dips into its later rounds.
While the franchise tag deadline took away most of the top-end of this year’s crop of free agent defensive linemen, there are several intriguing options at edge both on the high-end of the spectrum and as depth/reclamation projects. Yes, in theory, we could make a Hargrave-like swing again this off-season, but it’s not what I would expect. However, the large number of Leonard Floyd-esque options (including Leonard Floyd himself) makes me optimistic that we can add multiple vets on the edges on the cheap, perhaps one being Clelin Ferrell on another friendly deal and another having a bit more upside.
On the interior, whether it’s through the draft or via free agency, I’d love to add a bigger-bodied DJ Jones type. Yes, asking for a big guy who moves like Jones is just that–an ask–but having some mass on the interior could help our run defense, particularly because Hargrave and Armstead are both more of three-technique types and the latter will likely miss some time due to injury this season.
We can never have too many defensive linemen. This means that every off-season we’re doing this kind of shuffling of chairs as we try to find value on the margins and long-term contributors through the draft. This year is same same but different in that the number of spots we have to fill is greater.
Aggressiveness Update. I’m not saying I want Brandon Staley anywhere near decisions of clock management or the overall running of a team, but I wouldn’t be against him nudging Shanahan towards a more aggressive lean on fourth-down decisions and offensive drives to end the first half. Jimmy G is gone and in his place, we have the top offense in the league. I know that’s not a one-to-one comparison as CMC arrived just games before Jimmy G went down, but it’s not a coincidence that our offense has hit new heights under Purdy. I know that dropback passing isn’t our strength (we could update our schemes in that field as well as our blocking), but it’s no longer a glaring weakness either. All this means we can–and should–be more aggressive in our approach to scoring touchdowns instead of field goals before the end of halves and when facing more fourth downs.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Super Bowl Post-Mortem
how much tax fraud do we think Bill Vinovich commits as a CPA in the off-season?
I wanted to let my emotions cool a bit before writing this one, in hopes that the takeaways would somehow differ and be more productive when given time and space to breathe. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. While time has made me less heated, it’s only because the sweet embrace of nihilism is seldom fiery hot. What’s done is done, and that’s something that the NFL must live with as much as any of us.
The great beauty of football lies in the fact that every moment matters. A single play can swing a game in its entirety. A single bounce of the ball–whose mere shape incites chaos–is often the difference between winning and losing. Possessions are few. Every game matters. Playoffs are one-and-done. Even careers are short. So all you can ask is that your team play 1% better than their opponent at the exact right time and hope that the rest falls your way. But this appeal assumes a fair playing field. Because bias in this sport swings outcomes more so than any other. And as we now know for certain, a fair playing field is far from what we’re dealing with. We’ve learned twice in five years that to beat the Chiefs in a Super Bowl–with a team that doesn’t have any popular podcasts, or Amazon Prime docs, or a quarterback that hocks insurance and hair products, or a player who’s dating the biggest pop star on the planet–you need to be at least 20% better. Or 50% better. You need to blow them out. You need to leave no doubt. Because if you don’t, and you let the game be close, the refs will make sure you lose.
We could have played better, and we’ll need to if we want another shot at taking home the game’s ultimate prize, but the topline takeaway from this Super Bowl was that–despite mistakes and mishaps–we played more than well enough to win. We just weren’t allowed to. And that stings in a way that will forever change my perception of both this game and a league that has fully blown past any supposed ideals of impartiality and fair play.
When I think of this Super Bowl, I’ll think of the opportunities we missed and the others that were taken from us, but I’ll also think of the end of “Hot Fuzz,” when a bunch of crotchety old hags butcher their prized town while droning on about “the greater good.” They’ve kept up their image. They’ve kept up their sense of self. But at what cost? Then I’ll think of Roger Gooddell, sitting down in his La-Z-Boy and putting on his best human skin while whispering to himself in parceltongue those very same words: “the greater good.” Perhaps it was worth it to cement the NFL’s darlings as a dynasty. Perhaps the league will retain all those mercurial Swifties when Kelce retires or Taylor starts dating some British guy who you vaguely remember from one episode of Game of Thrones and a BBC miniseries that you started but didn’t finish. I’m not naive enough to believe in the moral fortitude of the National Football League, but when it comes to overt favoritism, this was uncharted territory. They’ve got their dynasty. They’ve fashioned it out of the league’s most marketable and exciting pieces and stuck it together with duct tape, chewing gum, and some good old-fashioned corruption.
But at what cost?
OVERALL
Even people who don’t do their jobs have to roll up their proverbial sleeves first
“I Swear I’m Not Corrupt, I’m Just An Idiot.” If there was any justice in this world, Bill Vinovich would be sent out to pasture and turned into glue. Perhaps then–since we’d be relying on a chemical reaction rather than his all-encompassing incompetence–he could finally do a task correctly, like adhere a sole to a shoe or help a child complete an art project. But Bill will be around for a while because the NFL loves a corporate shill, and because he’s the league’s best option for implementing their no-call policy.
This game wasn’t lost by a suspect roughing the passer or a defensive pass interference deep down the sideline. While that’s certainly been the case in the past–more specifically, in Bill Vinovich’s past–the NFL has realized that singular calls at the point of attack—called or not—generate too much attention. Too much backlash. They’ve learned–as most morally bankrupt entities do–that the best way to swing things in your favor is to puppeteer the game where others aren’t looking. Now, the NFL relies on calls OFF the ball that are NOT made. If throwing a flag for an on-ball penalty late in the fourth is like assassinating a foreign president, refusing to call holding for an entire game is like bankrolling a fascist movement over decades to let them do the dirty work for you.
I charted 11 obvious holding calls against the Chiefs, none of which were flagged. Six were on third downs, and every single Chiefs scoring drive–other than their one-play touchdown after the fumbled punt–included at least one of those holds. This only includes offensive holding, even if there was also some defensive holding that went unchecked–especially on Kittle–like this one, where two dudes blatantly held him on second-and-long two plays before a third quarter punt:
For absolute clarity in the argument that the officiating in this game goes far beyond variance and sour grapes, feel free to look at the NFL’s official language on illegal offensive blocks. Holding is—in summary—using your arms or hands to restrict or alter a defender’s path or angle of pursuit, regardless of whether those hands are inside or outside of the body. Examples include, but are not limited to, hooking, turning, grabbing, tackling, twisting, etc.
I’ve also included the two grainy screenshots below, taken directly from an NFL teaching video on what constitutes holding. There are other examples of what could be a hold, but these images make pretty clear what is definitely a hold.
Finally, before we get into the rogues' gallery of offenses, if anyone wants to try and big-brain you about these calls through rules exemptions, I am fully aware that clipping (blocking in the back) is allowed within the box. Any shot of a player being blocked in the back below includes him being tackled, which isn’t legal wherever the block occurs. I also understand that there is a “rip exception” to holding calls. This states that if a player executes a rip move (a shoulder dip and uppercut motion with the arm nearest the blocker) to put the blocker into a hold, that hold won’t be called. For any of you basketball fans, think of it like the Harden/Durant rip-through rule. I won’t go into too much detail on this rule because not a single one of the shots I’m about to show you includes a hold on a rip move.
If we exclude rip moves at the point of attack, the simplest way to determine holding is to look at the offensive lineman’s feet and his hands. If the back of his feet are NOT facing the quarterback but the back of his hands ARE and the defender being blocked is being turned, tackled, or restrained from changing direction it is almost certainly a hold. There are many ways to hold someone, but there are few (if any) ways not to hold someone within those parameters. With that in mind, behold but a small cross-section of the human embodiment of ineptitude we call Bill Vinovich:
If you look at the timestamps, the holds got much more prevalent as the game went on. Once again, that’s 11 missed holds on 6 of 19 third downs and holds on every scoring drive except for one. And this doesn’t even include the cuspy ones.
Across two Super Bowls, Bill Vinovich has called zero offensive holds on a Chiefs team that is known for holding and that quite literally led the league in the category this season. In the one Super Bowl where their Chiefs OL did get called for holding, the Bucs swarmed Mahomes and blew them out with ease. The word ineptitude for this officiating is far too kind. This is quite simply game-swinging bias.
Sloppy Joes. The many self-inflicted wounds were maddening and quite often drive-killers. Few elite offenses rebound as poorly to holding penalties as ours and we had two of them in this game, but at least they were understandable. One was on Trent Williams as Purdy left the pocket (when you’re not the Chiefs, that’s a hold). The other was on seventh-round rookie Brayden Willis while filling in for a temporarily injured Kittle.
But the four false starts are inexcusable, and given three of them occurred on 2nd-and-10 or worse, they clearly contributed to us getting out of our run game. By many metrics, running on 2nd-and-10 isn’t usually the right move (even if it sometimes was in this matchup) but running on 2nd-and-15+, when the most likely outcome you’re setting yourself up for is third-and-long, is almost never the right move.
Fumbles, drops, and other simple execution issues plagued us throughout the game, and–as is abundantly clear at this point–we weren’t going to be bailed out by luck. Of the seven fumbles in this game (five by the Chiefs), the Chiefs recovered six of them. Considering fumble recovery statistics have shown to be equivalent to a coin flip, that’s a telling stat for the day as a whole.
Even if we don’t talk about reffing bias, the Chiefs were undeniably lucky this post-season. To the point of statistical relevance.
New OT, Same Talking Points. People love to critique Shanahan’s game management (sometimes rightfully so) so I’m not surprised that there have been so many hot takes about his decision to receive the ball to start OT. But I am surprised at how confident people are in their opinions. This was the first-ever game under the new OT rules so there is quite literally no direct data to support either decision, but there are a few things that can at least explain the thought process.
The most common initial reaction is that the new system resembles college football, where there is basically unanimous agreement that you should go second so that you know exactly how much you need to score once you get the ball. But the advantage gained from going second is wildly overstated. Since college overtime’s movement to its most recent OT format(s) in 1996, multiple studies have shown that starting on offense or defense has almost no bearing on who wins the game. The most recent study, which looked at games from 2013 through 2021, had teams who started on defense winning 51% of the time. There’s an edge there, but not enough for that decision to be deemed “automatic.” The comparison between college and NFL overtime also neglects a few big differences to the NFL’s new rules.
First off, in the NFL you don’t start with the ball on the opposing 25. You start with a kickoff. And in this game that meant you started on your own 25. This difference cannot be overstated. When you start at the plus 25, the expectation is that you score in some way. Starting OT from a kickoff greatly changes the receiving teams’ chances of scoring and the eventual starting field position of the defending team. If anything, I would think this benefits the idea of defending first in case you force an early punt and can gain a starting field position advantage, but that’s just my initial instinct.
The second major change is that in college, all teams are guaranteed an equal number of possessions. Teams are always given a rebuttal. In NFL OT, that guarantee only lasts two possessions. If the game is still tied once the third possession begins then it becomes sudden death and you’re not guaranteed anything. This is also a massive difference between the two formats and was the primary reason Shanahan and his analytics team decided it would make sense to receive the ball first. Yes, there is a second-mover advantage for the defending team in that they can go for two after scoring a touchdown to win it (which the Chiefs said they would have done), but there are a lot of variables (and assumptions) inherent in that advantage. If the game goes to a third possession, having that possession on offense is undeniably a humongous advantage.
I also think the fact that the Niners’ defense had just come off the field on an 11-play scoring drive to end the fourth quarter plays into this decision. By starting on the minus-25 in college, your defensive starters could be gassed, but they only have to suck it up for a few plays before–one way or another–they get a break and get off the field. In the NFL, that’s not the case. In all likelihood, a Niners team that was battling some defensive injuries and fatigue and had a single play’s rest after that 11-play scoring drive would have had to force a three and out (or at worst a punt on the second set of downs) before subbing their defensive line, at which point the Chiefs would have almost certainly went tempo to keep them on the field. There’s little argument to be made that our defense and its ability to stop the Chiefs benefited from the extra rest, regardless of whether or not taking the ball to start overtime was the right decision or not.
Finally, if we want to look at the college comparison again, teams in OT who received the ball first and scored a touchdown won a whopping 70% of the time. That number would surely be much higher in the NFL due to the increased distance needed to score, even if obtaining that initial touchdown is much harder in the pros. Perhaps this should have led Shanahan to go for it on fourth down rather than settle for a field goal? While I don’t think that was an easy decision either, I certainly buy that critique more so than our choice to receive first, even if it’s steeped in 20/20 hindsight.
The differ or receive decision of the NFL’s new playoff format is considerably more complicated than any other overtime format before it, and–like most things–the decision to defend or receive should likely be based on the specific circumstances of each particular game. All this to say, I don’t know what the right choice was. But I’m glad every other asshole apparently does.
DEFENSE
Farewell, Wilks. While the Wilks firing was unfortunate, it was not without reason. Anyone considering this a “scapegoat firing” and a testament to Shanahan’s big game issues obviously didn’t watch the Niners until the Super Bowl—a game in which we allowed 455 yards of offense, btw.
While I thought our defense played much better than that stat—which was inflated due to poor officiating—Wilks never meshed with our top players nor the type of scheme we have to run for our roster-building strategy to make sense. Based on how we alot our salary cap and draft capital, we need to play from the front to the back, and while Wilks made major strides with our secondary, he never seemed to fully get on board with that fundamental idea. Far too often, the schemes in the front and the back weren’t tied together tight enough.
On its face, our defense was strong this year, and—at times—it was the same elite unit we’ve seen in past seasons. But we benefited greatly from having the league’s best offense, and a closer look showed a defense that had serious flaws. Our EPA/play dropped off from 1st to 12th. Our run defense DVOA fell from 2nd to 15th. And our third down percentage fell from 13th to a woeful 27th. This despite retaining the entirety of our core, staying healthier than in past years, and adding Javon Hargrave in the off-season.
Wilks was never comfortable stepping in and running “our defense,” and it showed up most on soft, vanilla third down coverages, slower-than-ideal adjustments, and a consistently frustrating lack of disguising and mixing up our looks. This was as much our fault for hiring him into a scheme he clearly didn’t totally understand as it was his for his inability to connect with it, but that doesn’t change the fact that a move had to be made, and–even if we’d won the Super Bowl–that move was likely coming.
The Heat-Seeking Missile. Referred to as a “one-of-one human” by his teammates after he went down to a ruptured Achilles, Dre Greenlaw’s loss was felt both emotionally and on the field, as the Chiefs targeted replacement linebacker Oren Burks and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles relentlessly in pass coverage after Greenlaw went down.
The Chiefs basically spammed quick flats, screens, outs, and option routes to the non-Warner linebacker to get their offense going post-injury, and it’s hard to imagine them having anywhere near the same kind of success with Dre on the field. Before he got hurt, those very same plays were going for–at best–1-yard gains.
Too Soft for Too Long. I get that Mahomes has a rocket and completed one deep pass when Gipson lost the ball in the stadium lights, but this was still a bad deep ball passing team that was susceptible to aggressive play outside.
Charvarius Ward was targeted zero times in this game. Deommodore Lenoir allowed five grabs but for only 36 yards. Our corners were as sticky and shutdown as could be, yet we used that as a deep ball deterrent rather than as a greenlight to be more aggressive disrupting the short plays that ended up becoming the majority of the Chiefs’ offense. I understand the bend-don’t-break philosophy, but when facing an offense that has–for the entirety of the season–shown an inability to do anything other than manufacture long drives off of short passes, playing soft plays into what they can do well. To be fair, if the holds were being called, this strategy would have worked, and it did for a while, but sometimes it seemed like we played this Chiefs offense like it was a Chiefs offense of old. It was not.
Show and Tell. Our defense was the third-most likely unit in the league to run the exact coverage that we showed pre-snap, and while there’s value in keeping things simple so that players can play fast, I can’t imagine that the marginal gains of slightly better positioning and more reps outweigh the massive benefits of confusing opposing quarterbacks and play callers. To make matters worse, our defense became so static and predictable that teams started deploying gameplans stuffed with designer plays to combat it. We saw this versus the Packers and a ton against the Lions. While the Chiefs’ offensive gameplan wasn’t able to start racking up real rock-paper-scissors wins until late in the game, our penchant for showing exactly what we were doing pre-snap bit us in the ass a few times at critical junctures.
The most frustrating example of this was on this long completion to Travis Kelce late in the game.
Warner bumps out of the box to line up on Kelce, as clear an indicator as possible that we’re in man coverage with outside leverage. This is an incredibly difficult assignment for a linebacker given how much the Chiefs love to attack man coverage with crossers, which is exactly what the Chiefs have dialed up.
Expecting man coverage, the Chiefs have set up a shallow crosser with a pick from Noah Gray to free up Kelce. Given Warner was clearly on an island pre-snap and that this would have been a difficult assignment for a cornerback, much less a linebacker, I assumed there would be inside help in the form of a high-and-inside safety bracket or a defender meant to wall Kelce on any crossers going to the opposite side of the field. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. The high safety took the high zone. The low safety roamed the intermediate middle and Warner was left with a largely impossible task.
While Warner is the best coverage linebacker in the game, you cannot guard this route from this alignment—especially against the pick the Chiefs run here—and that frees Kelce for an easy gain that both he and Mahomes likely diagnosed pre-snap. Even a simple flip of responsibilities from the safeties, with Ji’Ayir creeping down and looking to take away in-breakers while Gipson plays over the top, could have baited Mahomes into an incompletion or worse. But we showed early what we were in and they punished us for it by hitting the only real option on the play.
When it came to crunch time, there was simply too much of this and too many easy underneath completions against soft coverage when they didn’t have the talent outside to warrant it.
Pressure Performers. To their credit, our defensive line showed up in a big way in the pass rushing category, totaling 32 QB pressures, 7 QB hits, and 3 sacks. Bosa in particular is insane in Super Bowls. He racked up 12 pressures all on his own. While those stats will likely only add fuel to the fire that is “Mahomes Magic,” they’re more a testament to how greatly we would have snuffed out this offense entirely if not for the blatant holding.
OFFENSE
Almost the Super Bowl’s most unlikely of MVPs
Manholes. We absolutely eviscerated the Chiefs when they played zone, picking them apart in the intermediate zones to the point where they went with much more man coverage and blitzes in the second half. That’s where we ran into some issues.
Deebo in particular struggled to get open, hauling in only three of his eleven targets and rarely getting separation against press man. There were times when it felt like we were forcing him the ball, but oftentimes the throws his way were a product of reads and progressions, not matchup hunting. Deebo just couldn’t beat his man. It’s hard to say how much of this was a product of the handful of injuries Deebo was carrying at the time, but he’s had his issues against man coverage before, and we really needed him to win more matchups.
Aiyuk, our man-beater all season, had a quiet game as well. He had a couple of wins where we just couldn’t get him the ball, but the Chiefs’ corners were generally sticky. When we put Aiyuk (or really whoever) on a safety and ran vertical stems to isolate them in coverage, we routinely got separation, but far too frequently the protection wasn’t there as the Chiefs became more and more blitz-happy as the game went on. What we needed were more underneath options and more people to get early open.
Our man killers in this game were CMC on everyone, anyone who could run a vertical stem against one of their safeties, and Jauan Jennings—who scored just the second touchdown all year against L’Jarius Sneed but did most of his work against their lesser DBs. Unfortunately, the protection fell apart quite a bit and it wasn’t always possible to take advantage when these guys were open.
Shots in the dark. We had a couple of big-time shot plays that sprung open in this game, but—in what will become a theme—we weren’t able to protect them. Deebo got big-time open on this fake hot screen, but Burford got beat immediately by Chris Jones so Purdy didn’t have time to make the throw.
The game could have looked a lot different if we’d even connected with one of these—which I’m sure was the reason why we kept trying—but the combination of guys getting open and us not hitting them also helped contribute to our offensive spiral in the middle of the game.
Burying the lede. Sometimes I think Shanahan gets too obsessed with calling the perfect play when he should just settle for a very good one. This—in conjunction with some ill-timed penalties and pass pro issues—felt like what happened during the stretch of three straight three-and-outs to start the third quarter. But, after looking at the coaches’ film, it seems more complicated than that.
To start the second half we called a deep play action shot play, which I was 100% in support of. Take off the top to keep the run game open all day. At least that was the thought.
Unfortunately, the Chiefs had already committed to cranking up their blitzing, and Deebo’s motion across formation likely sealed the deal.
The strongside linebacker shoots through immediately, and our offensive line—who, to their credit, are trying to perform a play fake—are clearly a bit confused. Brendel loops right looking for work, Banks and Feliciano end up taking the same guy, and the linebacker whizzes right behind them toward the quarterback. This is a shame because both of the guys who went out on routes were open down the field.
After it fell incomplete, Shanahan dialed up a run play, but Aaron Banks false-started. Now facing 2nd-and-15, running was largely out of the question and we were an incomplete and a short scramble from a punt. This was unfortunate but at least understandable.
To start the second drive, we ran what I initially thought was another play action shot play, resulting in a frantic scramble and a negative 8-yard completion to Jauan Jennings. This once again put us behind the sticks and took us out of running territory. Live, I thought this was a massive mistake, but after watching the All-22, it looked more like yet another giant missed opportunity.
While the blocking is a bit weird, this looks a lot like a called throwback screen. And if it was, holy shit was it open.
None of the DL have read screen. One is on the ground. Juice is ten yards in front of CMC and ready to block the one cornerback in the area (who also hasn’t seen the screen yet) and the closest inside linebacker (underlined) has fully turned his head and started running the wrong direction. If this is a screen (and not just a conveniently effective stretch play action fake), I have no idea why Purdy didn’t throw it. Even if it wasn’t a called screen, he should have thrown it. I would assume some combination of the pressure from Chris Jones coming earlier than he expected and the area around CMC being blocked by bodies made him reluctant to toss it out there without a clear picture. But mother of god, that’s a house call if he does.
Instead, Purdy evades Jones and dumps the ball off to Jennings, who was only supposed to block on the play. The massive loss puts us in another hole that we can’t run out of and we punt two plays later. If that was meant to be another deep play action pass, it was a bad call. We just can’t risk that kind of lost yardage to start back-to-back drives—especially against this defense. But if it was a called screen that Purdy just didn’t throw, then… you can’t really complain about a dialed-up touchdown that was open.
For the third three and out, we started with a gap run, which was the right call, even if the play didn’t work. The Chiefs were so dialed against our zone running that the gap schemes started opening up much better, but this was the rare play where both Trent Williams and George Kittle missed their blocks. We could have run again on second down—I probably would have—but instead, we ran a dropback pass concept where Purdy bypassed a wide-open Deebo to attempt a deeper shot for Aiyuk.
This was one of the rare blown coverages from the Chiefs on the day, and—of course—they somehow benefited from it. Whereas Purdy could have hit Deebo for some sweet slant and YAC action, he holds to throw to Aiyuk, who also opens up on a deep out. However, Purdy winds up late on the throw because one of the DBs doubling CMC incidentally clogs the passing lane while trying to recover and guard Deebo.
Just one of those days.
Upon further review, I (think I) understand more about what Shanahan was trying to do in those three ugly three-and-outs. But, as a whole, I do think we got too far away from the running game (or at least the threat of it) and made things harder than they needed to be. Our YPC may not have been stellar, but we showed throughout that we could get a push on even the most loaded of boxes.
On this play, for instance, we ran stretch right against this ten-man (!) box.
And it gained 4 yards.
The Chiefs ran a lot of late shifts and weird slants and fronts in order to confuse our linemen and their zone rules, and it worked a number of times to stop runs for no gain. But there’s only so much of that you can do. Eventually, your soft underbelly gets exposed. When we could put a hat on a hat, we consistently got push on the inside and the more we leaned on it the better we ran and the fewer third-and-longs we faced.
At times, it seemed like Shanaahan and Purdy wanted too badly to go for the jugular. We didn’t need to get the score or the first down all at once. We needed to stay ahead of the sticks. We needed efficiency–in whatever form that could be found in–and—as we rediscovered as we neared the fourth quarter—that efficiency was found in balance, a recommitment to the run game, and more short-to-intermediate completions to beat the blitzes.
Joe Exotic. Spags dialed up some killer blitzes and disguises in this game—quite often on third down—and Purdy—as should be expected with any young QB—didn’t diagnose them all correctly. But our third down struggles were far from his issue alone.
Here is our last third down of regulation, just under the two-minute warning, with a chance to ice the game if we convert it.
CMC has motioned into a stack to the short-side of the field. Ray-Ray is running an inside release clear out to make sure CMC gets a clean release on an option route, while we have a simple double slant concept to the field side.
The Chiefs are lining up like they’re either in Cover 2 man, one of their favorite third-down coverages, or double bracket coverage over Aiyuk and CMC, but they’re really sending the house and playing man 0 all over. If diagnosed correctly, this is actually a great play call to beat this blitz because the safety on Aiyuk has far too soft a cushion to play the inside slant.
I can’t say for certain because the All-22 is from the back of his helmet, but when Purdy opens up to his left—knowing he wants to hit one of the slants—it seems like he looks out wide to Jennings first. Perhaps he assumed that bracket coverage on Aiyuk would lead to single-coverage outside. But if Purdy had stuck to his inside-out progression, he would have seen Aiyuk open up immediately.
Instead, the blitzing DB comes unblocked, gets directly in Purdy’s throwing lane, and bats down the pass. If the blitzing DB had been picked up, perhaps Purdy would have diagnosed and hit Aiyuk after the initial look towards Jennings, but he didn’t have time because of a protection mishap. We’ve talked about the benefits of having so many guys play so many positions, but there are definitely drawbacks, and we often see those when non-RBs are lined up in the backfield. Given Jake Brendel steps right on the snap, I assume he diagnosed the Mike linebacker to his right and set the protection that way, meaning Kittle (most likely) had an inside-out scan protection to the left—meaning, he is responsible for the blitzing DB. Instead, he stays on the right and looks to help out on an extra man that never shows. If he’d come over and simply picked up McDuffie as he was supposed to—or even just knocked him out of the lane—Purdy likely finds Aiyuk or has enough time to hit CMC, who breaks open later on the option route. Then, we run out the clock and kick a game-winner as time expires.
We were 3-of-12 on converting third downs. The Chiefs were 9-of-19. That’s as telling a stat as any.
As Purdy sees these schemes more he’ll get used to what they’re doing and be able to tell when something is disguised, when something isn’t, when to check in and out of different protections, and how to go through his progressions so that just because he’s tricked pre-snap doesn’t mean he has to be post-snap. It’s great that he’s seeing things pre-snap and preparing for what he thinks will be open, but–as he gets more reps–he’ll learn when he can and can’t trust those mental shortcuts. Sometimes, you just have to go through the progression and let the defense show you their coverage.
Overall, I was impressed by Purdy. He navigated the pocket as well as he ever had against a lot of pressure, largely fought the urge to flush out too early, and–as he usually does–seized the moment and played good football down the stretch. This is a guy, who–in his second year in the NFL and first as a full-time starter–performed much better against this defense than two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, NFL completion % leader Tua Tagovailoa, and countless other veteran quarterbacks who faced the Chiefs this season. He got tricked by Spags on a couple of occasions, but we didn’t lose because of him. Far from it.
Don’t Play It Again, Sam. This is now the third year in four deep postseason runs where pass pro issues—particularly on the right side of our line—have played a major part in dooming our Super Bowl aspirations. Some of it is d-coordinators scheming up well against our pass protection rules, but a whole lot of it is just our guys getting beat.
On our final offensive play of the Super Bowl, we split out into empty and called a fly sweep play action fake with man beaters all over the formation.
Jauan is running a whip route to the short side of the field. The two slants to the left are functionally one slant, as Deebo in the slot is meant more to pick the trailing linebacker on CMC—who is running a swing route after the fly sweep fake. Finally, Kittle is chipping and then opening up into space as a fallback option underneath. If no one else opens up then at least the Chiefs will have to tackle Kittle in space from a deep safety position.
This is an excellent play call in every way except for the protection up front.
The OL is attempting to sell the play fake, so Jake Brendel is pulling to the left side and taking the edge. This isn’t inherently flawed, but—as Justin Reid creeps up to blitz on CMC’s motion across—things start to get messy. Tony Romo—who was meh or worse for much of the Super Bowl—did make a good point in the broadcast that this was a protection that a more elder Purdy might have checked out of given the front. But even with this protection, we we would have been fine if we’d simply executed it correctly.
Unfortunately, despite being taught to step out and block the B gap, Burford tries to help inside on the A gap pressure—a mistake he copped to after the game and blamed on relying on “instinct” rather than teaching. This leaves Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ best defensive player, totally unblocked and screaming towards Purdy. While Reid, and both edge players, are coming after the quarterback, they’re not full blitzers. There’s a read and a check involved and Reid even stops in the hole before being contacted. So even if Reid wasn’t picked up, he wasn’t getting to Purdy before he hit one of the many open receivers.
And boy were there open receivers.
That’s right, with Deebo acting more as a pick player, every single receiver going out on a real route was open on this play. All four of them. Aiyuk shook all-pro L’Jarius Sneed to the literal ground en route to the endzone. Jauan was breaking open towards the sideline. CMC had a clear pitch and catch angle to a walk-in touchdown. Even Kittle, the only player who might not have scored on this play, would have easily gotten the first down with this much room to run.
Yes, we could have run a different protection or Purdy could have checked into another one at the line, but the protection was ultimately sound. We just had to execute up front.
Trent Williams and Jon Feliciano allowed one combined pressure all day. Our other four linemen allowed a combined 14. This is a stacked draft at OT and one that has starter-level depth and high-end potential well into the bottom of the first and even the second round. I know that our lack of spending on the OL is in part a result of our salary cap structure and something we actively scheme around, but I fully expect us to select an offensive tackle with our first pick in this draft. Enough is enough. No matter how much we’d like to scheme around it, we just need to be better along the OL to prevent these kinds of issues from popping up at the worst times in our dropback passing game.
It is somehow both comforting and wildly depressing that we were so close and so deserving of winning this Super Bowl, only for it to be tanked by a couple of mistakes and consistently biased refereeing. Worries about our Super Bowl window closing are legitimate, if for no other reason than because opportunities such as these are so hard to come by. But great franchises stay in contention, and I have faith in the core we have in place. As always, growth is needed across the board for us to continue to play at this level and to finally take that next step, but every season we’ve gotten better and there’s no reason to think that next year should be any different. Of all the scars the Niners speak of from their recent post-season heartbreaks, this one will certainly run the deepest. While it may not feel like much at the moment, take solace in knowing that this latest setback will make the next Super Bowl victory—which I believe is coming soon—all the sweeter.
Until then, if someone says the Chiefs won because “you just can’t beat Mahomes” feel free to slap them across their whore face.
Go Niners 🏈👍