The Path Forward

With the combine completed and franchise tags due today, figured it was as good a time as any to turn the page from the atrocities of Bill Vinovich and toward the 2024 season. While it’s easy to say a team should be getting better each year, that’s far from a reality in the NFL for most teams. Eventually, that won’t be the case for us either, but we have clearly improved over each of the past three years and—with one year left before we have to extend Purdy—have various means to do so again in this upcoming season. We were good enough to win it all this year. Now, we need to make the changes and improvements necessary to actually win it all before our core starts to change shape.

The Winds of (Sort of) Change. Over a week of interviews, the Niners met with at least three external and two internal defensive coordinator candidates–and even kicked the tires on Steve Spagnuolo before he re-signed with the Chiefs. The result is the promotion of Nick Sorensen to the DC position and the hiring of former Chargers headman Brandon Staley to fill the assistant head coach role vacated by Anthony Lynn’s departure to Washington.

Sorensen will be a first-time defensive coordinator and has only been with the Niners for two years after spending the 2022 season as a defensive assistant and 2023 as the passing game coordinator, nickels coach, and head of the Niners’ weekly “The Ball” meetings, which prioritized turnovers and coined his nickname of “The Ballfather.” Before coming to the Bay, Sorensen was the special teams coordinator for a year in Jacksonville and spent seven seasons in Seattle working in the secondary and special teams. A former college quarterback at Virginia Tech, he switched to defense when some dude named Michael Vick arrived in Blacksburg, eventually carving out a nice 10-year career as a safety in the NFL before switching over to coaching. While Sorensen isn’t as highly regarded as DeMeco Ryans was when he got the DC nod (if he was, he would have gotten it last year) he’s thought of highly in the coaching ranks, knows our scheme and personnel, and has extensive experience in the Seattle 3 system.

While Sorensen’s promotion is the big development, Staley’s addition is the most intriguing one. Staley was ousted from the Chargers after three seasons and zero playoff victories and developed a reputation for some seriously questionable game management decisions while he struggled to consistently connect his complex defensive schemes to his players. The Chargers had their fair share of impressive defensive outings during Staley’s tenure, but the overall body of work was subpar at best. Injuries and a lack of depth–which got the Chargers’ GM fired alongside Staley–played their part in Staley’s defensive performances, but the end product wasn’t nearly what it should have been. Despite the issues with the Chargers, Staley is widely regarded as one of the smartest defensive minds in football, and in his last–and only–stint as DC he helped the 2020 Rams lead the league in both points and yards allowed. He’s a disciple of the Vic Fangio gap-and-a-half 3-4 scheme, which operates in stark difference to our 4-3 Wide 9, but his front versatility makes his defense malleable enough that he was heavily considered for the Niners’ top job. If the Niners weren’t so dead-set on keeping the majority of their defensive scheme intact, perhaps Staley would have been the choice, but in this unorthodox set-up, they likely get the best of both worlds. While there’s always a threat of “too many cooks,” I would guess that Staley operates entirety on the defensive side of the ball and helps Sorensen in weekly game-planning while installing some of the coverage concepts and fronts he has that align with our defensive scheme. 

For better or worse, the Niners always seem to do things a little bit differently, and this could be a lucrative relationship for all involved. I understood the urge to stick with the same overall scheme that got us here and that has had success for so many years running–especially with 2024 such a critical year before our roster core faces some difficult decisions–but I appreciate that the Niners understood they also needed an influx of new ideas. Given the dearth of established DC candidates this late in the hiring cycle, securing both continuity and a sprinkling of new concepts from one of the better defensive schemers in football has to be considered a win, even if a first-time DC who–unlike Saleh or Ryans–is not an obvious “future head coach” type always carries some form of risk. Staley’s presence helps mitigate that risk, and–if things go according to plan–the combo has high-end potential, especially given the talent they’ll have to work with.

Going Wide. Brandon Aiyuk and his looming contract negotiations are the big ticket item on the rumor mill this off-season, but we also have a decision to make on Jauan Jennings, who is currently a restricted free agent.

Let’s start with Jennings, our run-blocking, fight-instigating, third down-securing jumbo third wideout who has proven abnormally clutch for being the team’s fifth (at best) option in the passing game. As an RFA, the Niners have a choice to make as to what level of tender they can offer him: first round, second round, or original draft round. Since Jennings was a seventh-round pick (thank you again, our third-day scouting department), the lowest tender would be risky at best. Jennings at the cost of a seventh-round pick is an offer many a team would jump on. A first-round tender is out of the question, which leaves the second-round tender–which has ballooned to $4.8M after the salary cap spike–or something more creative.

In past years, the Niners have offered RFA tenders to players such as Ross Dwelley and Jeff Wilson, only to then extend those players instead on one-year deals that come in at a lower pay rate (and cap hit) than the RFA tender but that are fully guaranteed. Something like that is certainly possible here, as is a two-to-three-year extension if the rate is friendly enough. Jauan has undoubtedly earned his money, but he’s more valuable to us than anyone else. While someone like Kendrick Bourne left for a decent contract and a much bigger role in the passing game, it’s hard to imagine Jauan getting offers for anything beyond a third receiver role. And while other teams may throw more or may not have guys like CMC and Kittle soaking up targets, Jennings’ biggest impact on a down-to-down basis is in his run-blocking, a trait that we probably value in our wideouts more than any other team in football. Considering he was a blown pass protection away from a likely Super Bowl MVP award, his value may never be higher from an outside perspective, which means a one-year deal could be the most likely option as an extension a year from now could be—time adjusted—cheaper.

As for Aiyuk, we’ve seen how tough Shanahan can be on his wideouts and how hard it is for rookies to contribute immediately when they don’t yet have the practice, preparation, and blocking commitment that he demands. This year Aiyuk was the top-graded run-blocking wideout in football AND was top 3 in yards per route run, yards per catch, and a litany of other stats–advanced or otherwise. He was an All-Pro, one of the top man-beaters in the country, and fits our offense like a glove. He too is more valuable to us than anyone else, but–unlike Jennings–it would be easy to see him racking up 100+ catches and 1500+ yards with regularity on a team that throws the ball more and shares it less. 2024 is not the year to mess around with breaking in a rookie wideout and Aiyuk is the exact type of player we should be extending.

For me, any talk of trading Aiyuk only begins if his representation is unreasonable AND someone is offering a high first-round pick in return. I consider the top three wideouts in this class all NFL slam dunks, and–if we could be assured we’d get a pick high enough to return Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze–I would at least take the call. But all three of those guys will go in the top 10 of the draft. In fact, there’s a very real world that all three go in the top 6. And–with teams picking that high likely not on a “win now” timetable–it seems unlikely that kind of compensation is forthcoming. In fact, the overall talent and depth of this receiver class likely depreciates Aiyuk’s trade value. While there are still plenty of playoff teams and cuspy contenders who believe–perhaps rightfully so–that a true alpha No.1 like Aiyuk could put them over the top, that’s not a deal we’re looking for when we have one more year of Purdy on his rookie contract. The most likely outcome is that Aiyuk skips OTAs and holds out (or holds in) until sometime around the beginning of training camp before we secure a long-term deal and he reports. The only core player the Niners have actually traded rather than extended around the start of training camp was DeForest Buckner. Whereas Robbie Gould, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa all played the waiting game until sometime in August.

Adjusting the Ledger. While the next off-season has always been the time earmarked for big roster changes, there are a few moves we could make this year to set up an easier path forward. The majority of those revolve around extensions, both good and bad.

Dre Greenlaw and Juice are both in the last year of their respective contracts, with $9.6M and $7.6M cap hits and dead cap figures under $3M. That makes both of them extension or cut candidates. Since dropping either of those players would fundamentally change our scheme on one side of the ball, I would expect them both to get extensions. While there’s certainly some risk in extending a fullback in his 30’s and a linebacker fresh off an Achilles tear, there are contract manipulations to hedge some of that risk and there’s a chance the circumstances of those two players could actually make retaining them cheaper than otherwise. I’m saying there’s a chance. I’m not saying it’s a good or bad one.

The big-ticket contracts of two other veterans also loom as a precursor to some potential major moves a year from now. Deebo Samuel ($28.6M) and Arik Armstead ($28.3M) are two of our three biggest cap hits this season but–unfortunately–neither is playing like it. 

Armstead is entering the last year of his contract, has had significant injuries stemming from a Lisfranc issue that likely isn’t going away, and has no guaranteed money left on his deal. Nicknamed “The Blueprint” because of how he does everything right on and off the field and the team’s perennial Walter Payton Man of the Year nomination, Armstead is still impactful when he’s actually healthy (see: Super Bowl) and is a model citizen and key contributor towards the development of the rotating door of defensive line depth pieces we constantly rely on. The Niners certainly want to keep him around, but–at his current price–that seems untenable. 

Meanwhile, Deebo is a true one-of-one talent and perhaps the single most unique and entertaining player in the NFL, but his value is significantly nerfed by the presence of Christian McCaffrey. Deebo’s First-Team All-Pro 2021 season–and the contract he received afterward–happened in a year when we quite literally ran out of running backs. We started Juice at running back for a game in September. At the time our backfield was injury-prone and relied mostly (if not entirely) on day 3 picks and UDFAs. While those running backs were talented, and it was reasonable to expect we’d keep finding guys who could plug-and-play every few years, none were difference-makers in the passing game and their lack of availability led to a lot of backfield touches for Deebo. 

Insert CMC, who has dominated touches in the run game and is an S-tier weapon on underneath routes, and it’s become pretty clear how much their skill sets overlap. In a perfect world, we love that overlap because it’s one of the best ways we can deploy our Swiss Army Knife offense. But in a hard-capped league, this means we’re approaching a decision point. Yes, Deebo is more of a gamebreaker than CMC after the catch and if you like to blitz and open up the middle or play any kind of soft zone with regularity, Deebo becomes one of the best weapons in football and will eat you alive. But–as was depressingly clear in the Super Bowl (even if he was a bit hobbled)–Deebo’s not enough of a difference-maker down the field and struggles too much against tight man coverage to warrant the cap figure of a true No.1 wideout. 

Deebo’s not going anywhere this year. Not when his dead cap figure is $14M more than his cap hit. But with a post-June 1 designation, Armstead could save the Niners a good chunk of change this season. The Niners certainly WANT both of them back in 2024 and beyond, but they might start having some difficult discussions with them this off-season about potential pay cuts to make their contracts better represent their production. That’s never an easy conversation to have with a player and an understandable one for them to balk at, but there’s a card the Niners can play here that could make it a win-win for both player and team. Guaranteed cash. 

Deebo’s 2024 salary guarantees in mid-April, but with $37.5M of his remaining $52M over the next two years in base salary, there’s likely some wiggle room here to negotiate. Meanwhile, Armstead’s $28M cap hit includes zero guaranteed cash and seems ripe for restructuring, perhaps in a way that includes equal or greater cash locked in but spread out over multiple years. If nothing changes, Armstead and Deebo are potential cut candidates this year and next, respectively. With that in mind, both are potential restructuring candidates now in hopes we can avoid those fates down the road.

Trench Warfare. Both lines need addressing and with more bodies than one. The Super Bowl reminded us of how much our offensive line gets by on scheme and Trent Williams. If we want to take the next step in the dropback passing game, we need more guys who can win their one-on-one battles.

Luckily, this draft class is LOADED with offensive linemen. There could be as many as eight or nine offensive tackles taken in the first round, multiple guards throughout the first two days, and–despite positional value–two centers who might get drafted on Day 1. The offensive tackle depth in particular is impressive, with many prospects slated for the back half of the first round and early into the second possessing the kind of high-end traits you typically can’t get at the bottom of the first. TBD if we’ll actually be able to get one at the bottom of the first or if a run on the position will force us to maneuver about the board, but there’s a very real possibility of adding one or two immediate starters along the OL in the first two days of the draft.

While the tackle market isn’t great in free agency (and probably never will be), it’s an oddly deep year for interior linemen, and a lot of the big names are fresh off rookie contracts and either still ascending or in the prime of their careers. Jake Brendel is on a relatively team-friendly deal and both our guards are on rookie contracts, but the depth of the free-agent interior OL could let us add an immediate starter without spending too much money on positions we historically don’t want to shell out for. Here, as always, juggling who we think will be available in the draft versus who is available at these positions in free agency will be both complicated and vitally important. Part of me believes that enough teams are in the same situation that the free agent market for interior OL will be slow and there will be guys of merit available after the draft, but with enough contenders like the Dolphins and Ravens looking for wholesale changes along their OL, that may be wishful thinking. 

Feliciano was only signed to a one-year deal but played well. Ironically, he was the journeyman right guard who actually would have (and was) blocking well upfront in crunch time before he went down in the Super Bowl. He could certainly be back, but likely only if we don’t look for a higher upside play/longer-term solution in free agency. Banks and Burford are still young. Perhaps they take the step forward this season that we were hoping they’d make last year, but we’re past the point of that being our Plan A and Plan B. There is more than enough talent available in both the draft and free agency for us to revamp our offensive line without breaking the bank. 

Along the defensive line, both our backup DTs (Givens and Kinlaw) and–if we rightfully assume that we don’t keep Randy Gregory at his current cap figure–all of our non-rookie defensive ends (Young, Ferrell, Gregory) are free agents, meaning we need bodies to replenish the ranks and many of them. While Drake Jackson and Robert Beal both present potential, we need to figure out who starts opposite Bosa and who makes up the entirety of our second wave off the bench. 

While I don’t think this DL crop is particularly special, it has good depth through–at least–the first two rounds, if not the first two days. This draft class as a whole is impressively deep, which makes it a great year to have 11 picks and four in the top 100, and while a run on offensive tackles could certainly lead us to take yet another defensive lineman with our first-round pick, it’s probably more likely that we go that direction at some point on the second day and at least once more as the draft dips into its later rounds. 

While the franchise tag deadline took away most of the top-end of this year’s crop of free agent defensive linemen, there are several intriguing options at edge both on the high-end of the spectrum and as depth/reclamation projects. Yes, in theory, we could make a Hargrave-like swing again this off-season, but it’s not what I would expect. However, the large number of Leonard Floyd-esque options (including Leonard Floyd himself) makes me optimistic that we can add multiple vets on the edges on the cheap, perhaps one being Clelin Ferrell on another friendly deal and another having a bit more upside.

On the interior, whether it’s through the draft or via free agency, I’d love to add a bigger-bodied DJ Jones type. Yes, asking for a big guy who moves like Jones is just that–an ask–but having some mass on the interior could help our run defense, particularly because Hargrave and Armstead are both more of three-technique types and the latter will likely miss some time due to injury this season. 

We can never have too many defensive linemen. This means that every off-season we’re doing this kind of shuffling of chairs as we try to find value on the margins and long-term contributors through the draft. This year is same same but different in that the number of spots we have to fill is greater. 

Aggressiveness Update. I’m not saying I want Brandon Staley anywhere near decisions of clock management or the overall running of a team, but I wouldn’t be against him nudging Shanahan towards a more aggressive lean on fourth-down decisions and offensive drives to end the first half. Jimmy G is gone and in his place, we have the top offense in the league. I know that’s not a one-to-one comparison as CMC arrived just games before Jimmy G went down, but it’s not a coincidence that our offense has hit new heights under Purdy. I know that dropback passing isn’t our strength (we could update our schemes in that field as well as our blocking), but it’s no longer a glaring weakness either. All this means we can–and should–be more aggressive in our approach to scoring touchdowns instead of field goals before the end of halves and when facing more fourth downs. 

Go Niners 🏈👍