Draft Strats & Musings
The city of Rome was founded in 753 BC, marking the beginning of an empire that lasted upwards of 1,200 years. During that time, they introduced the world to roads, the news, the Julian calendar, and the idea of not drinking from the same water that you bathed and took dumps in. But—as historians are apt to note—they never got over the hump and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. And, in the fifth century, a combination of in-fighting, corruption, and invading Visigoths quickly led to their demise. The empire of Rome was no more. Now, all we have are present-day ruins and the CGI backgrounds of bad sword and sandal movies to remember it by.
All this to say, the draft is important. While we currently have one of the most talented rosters in the league, any team that doesn’t constantly refuel via the draft runs the risk of quickly becoming the Chargers: a once-stacked roster that suddenly finds themselves old, top-heavy, lacking in depth, and burning in cap hell. We’re a long way from that nightmare scenario, but we saw hints of declining depth last season. They were simply masked by the fact that—for the first time in a decade—we ranked better than 20th in adjusted games lost due to injury. Thus, the more questionable parts of our roster could stay hidden. But soon, the Visigoths will be at the door.
This lack of depth can largely be attributed to the Trey Lance trade, and—to a lesser extent—the move for CMC midway through the 2022 season. We are more than happy with the picks we gave up from one of those deals, but the lack of high-round picks has started to permeate the outskirts of our roster. So with 10 picks in the draft, including first and second-round selections for the first time since 2021, now is the time to insert new starters, future starters, and depth pieces throughout our roster—both as assurances against a potential return to bad injury luck and to keep this party rolling into next year and beyond.
Because aqueducts are nice. And so is perennial contention.
Still getting boned by the NFL. You may have heard that the NFL dropped the Niners’ fourth-rounder a few spots and took away their 2025 fifth-round pick due to an accounting error. The error had something to do with a bonus payment through a new payroll system and didn’t affect salary cap compliance or give any competitive advantage, but the NFL decided to come down hard to prevent someone from intentionally making a more advantageous “mistake” in the future. The punishment seemed a bit severe, but at least I understood it.
But the Niners got absolutely screwed by the NFL’s last-second change to how they calculate compensatory picks. Stockpiling comp picks has been a major part of our roster-building strategy since the Trent Baalke days, and—rumor has it—some owners had grown butt-hurt about how effective we’ve become at the practice. This likely played a part in the NFL’s decision to change the comp pick formula overnight—a change that affects how void years are calculated and dropped the third-round comp pick we’d expected to get from Jimmy G (or Mike McGlinchey) to a fourth-rounder.
I won’t get into the nitty-gritty of exactly how the formula changed because (a) I don’t know the specifics, and (b) apparently, neither does anyone else. This is from Nick Korte, runner of OverTheCap, a salary cap site that correctly predicts comp picks a year before they’re awarded. For reference, the Bills were the only other team expecting a third-rounder (for Tremaine Edmunds) and got ambushed by this formula change.
Since the cancelation charts no longer make any sense, the changes must have something to do with void years counting as higher annual salaries than listed so that you can’t abuse the practice to net better comp picks. In a vacuum, I understand the change. But if your worry is competitive balance then it might be nice to (a) make this decision BEFORE all these contracts have been structured and signed, and (b) actually tell people about it when you do. Instead, the Niners had a third-round pick (99th overall) drop to a fourth-round pick (132nd overall). According to draft value charts, that equates to about a mid-fourth-round pick of pure LOST value.
John Lynch was diplomatic when asked about the change. Probably because the Niners had just been docked draft spots for the payroll mishap. Brandon Beane, GM of the Bills? Not so much:
“It did surprise me. I think us and San Francisco, we got a raw deal,” Beane said, adding the 49ers received a lesser comp pick as well. “I don’t want to give a full thing, but we had separate Zooms with the league trying to go through how it was calculated because by even their accounts, as we were checking with them through the year, we clearly had a third-rounder. It was a major blow because we had planned for it and San Fran felt the same way.”
Never mind the fact that the large majority of the prized third-round picks we’ve acquired over the past few years have not been due to free agency but because we’ve cranked out two minority GMs and as many minority head coaches as the rest of the league combined. This is not an exaggeration. While 2024 was a banner year for minority hires, from 2021 when the minority coaching initiative was enacted through 2023, we were responsible for 3 of the 6 minority head coaching hires. The other three included an internal promotion after a retirement (Todd Bowles) and two hires (David Culley, Lovie Smith) from the Texans’ “unlikeable Tommy Boy” owner—hires who were always meant to fail as the team blew up its roster and completed a multi-year organizational teardown.
It’s also worth wondering if this change does anything to aid competitive balance. Every NFL team can engage in the same void-year practices as we do regardless of on-field success, market, or franchise value because—unlike the MLB—revenue sharing in the NFL is so vast and distributed so equally that teams have nearly all of their cap money paid for before they earn a dime for themselves. Void years in the NFL don’t help wealthy franchises and big markets cheat the system through deferred contracts (see: Dodgers + Ohtani), they simply reward teams whose owners are willing to pay more guaranteed cash upfront. Every team can (and should) use void years to manipulate the cap. They just don’t want to because they’re more busy gaslighting their employees and threatening their fans with leaving town if they don’t pay for much-needed stadium upgrades through taxpayer funds. This change doesn’t reward the poor. It rewards the cheap.
No one is less surprised than me that a bunch of old rich white owners got mad about accounting loopholes they can (and should) be using for themselves instead of just–you know–hiring good minority candidates and then developing them into highly coveted head coaches, but it’s a bummer how and when the NFL decided to acquiesce to their complaints.
Aiyuk Update. There is none. But there are some things to note.
If Aiyuk gets traded (a scenario I still find highly unlikely) it will happen before the draft. This is a loaded receiver class and there’s no chance the Niners brass wants to get rid of their No.1 receiver before this critical 2024 season and NOT tap into this class for an immediate replacement. Star players get traded before the draft or they don’t get traded.
All-Pro(ish) corner L’Jarius Sneed was just traded for a third-round pick. Stefon Diggs was just traded for a 2025 conditional second-round pick. All this would suggest that the Niners would struggle to net the kind of first round+ return needed for them to feel at all comfortable with parting with their star wideout. While the depth of this current receiver class certainly depreciates the value of a veteran wideout on the trade market, this isn’t apples-to-apples. The Chiefs HAD to move or sign Sneed and the rest of the league called their bluff. Diggs is a bigger name but a worse receiver who turns 31 next season and has a history of forcing his way out of winning situations. We still have Aiyuk on his fifth-year option, have the cap space to pay him, and he’s on the right side of 30 with all analytics, advanced stats, and locker room chatter on his side.
I think we’d all like to pay Aiyuk sooner rather than later, both so he can continue to develop a rapport with Purdy and for our peace of mind as we enter the summer. But we’d also like to get ahead of the massive upcoming extensions of CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. Contracts will continue to balloon as long as the salary cap grows. All you can do is diagnose the right guys to lock into long-term deals and sign them before other players at the same position follow suit. CeeDee and JJ are much bigger parts of their respective offenses. While Aiyuk has similar talent, we don’t want to be paying a surcharge for a usage level that we don’t ask of him, nor do we want to have those two exorbitant contracts on the books as we negotiate.
Is it time to finally be good at special teams? The new kickoff rule that the NFL ported over from the XFL will be a major wild card this upcoming season. There’s an argument that it should benefit us, as the weird 5-yard gap between the kicking and receiving teams loosely resembles stretch runs, the blocking mirrors the difficult open field blocks that we ask our fullbacks, tight ends, and wide receivers to do on the regular, and we have one the most creative brain trusts in football when it comes to scheming up run concepts.
That said, special teams have never been a genuine strength of ours, whether it’s returning kicks or covering them, so we’d be making some pretty legitimate assumptions to think that will change overnight. But we’ve already made more special teams-oriented acquisitions than usual this free agency and we’re still in the market for a new return man (or two, given the new kickoff rules), so don’t be surprised to see special teams become a more important focus than usual in our draft selections, especially for anyone taken on the third day.
General Draft Strategy
It’s impossible to know exactly who will be available at pick 31 and beyond, but I think we can zero in on a few likely positions based on our free agent moves, this draft class’ depth of talent at different positions, contract decisions that must be made in the next year, and the fact that our starting lineup has only a few real positions of need.
Our roster-building philosophy will also permeate everything that happens over the draft weekend, particularly in the early rounds. You have to pick and choose in a hard cap league and there are certain position groups that we have decided to value higher than others. Those are the positions we’re more likely to target on the first two days of the draft.
Based on all that, these are the positions I expect us to target and when.
Offensive Line
We could stand to upgrade every spot along our offensive line other than Trent Williams, and even at left tackle we’ll need a succession plan sooner rather than later. This is BY FAR the most likely direction we go at pick 31, and this draft class is as stacked at OL as any that I can remember.
A starting right tackle is certainly our priority. If a rookie can plug and play, that lets us push McKivitz inside or to a backup swing role that best suits him. A handful of these tackles may need to start their careers inside before they learn the nuances of tackle play. That’s not ideal but not the end of the world, either, as we could use improvement everywhere and it would let us bring a guy along slowly while still giving him early reps. There are also a few interior guys getting first-round grades. I don’t LOVE spending a first-rounder on an interior-only guy, but–for the right prospect–I don’t hate it either. Regardless, we need new blood and better talent up and down our offensive line, and this class is packed with it.
At times, a class’ positional depth has let teams secure quality players later in the draft, as teams become less anxious to snag their guy early because there are so many players they like on their board who could be available later. With how desperate the NFL is for good offensive tackle play, I don’t think that will be the case this year. There’s a potential tier dropoff after the top 7 tackle prospects in this class, and while there’s a chance one of those guys could fall to us at 31, a run on tackles before we’re on the clock is (at least) equally as likely. The 8th and 9th-ranked tackles are by no means scrubs, but we may need to leapfrog some teams to get a crack at that top 7. For reference, moving up just 5-6 spots in the first round would likely cost us the value equivalent of a super late third-round pick. You know, like the one the NFL just moved to a fourth-rounder due to the comp pick formula changes they just decided to apply this year.
Le sigh.
I would be shocked (and appalled) if we don’t add at least one offensive lineman on the first two days of the draft–likely (ideally) in the first round. But without a second third-round pick to wheel and deal with, the chances of us jumping up to grab a higher-ranked tackle have certainly dropped. That’s not the end of the world. Typically, just picking the available guys and hoarding picks is the right move, especially when you’re a team like us in need of an influx of capable youth. But it would be nice to have the flexibility to get aggressive if need be.
Wide Receiver
We’ve talked about Aiyuk and Jennings’ contract situations as well as Deebo’s standing on the roster both this year and beyond, but our receiver corps is massively top-heavy.
Ray-Ray’s injury really knocked him out of the offense and now he–and his punt return ability–are gone. Ronnie Bell did well for a seventh-round rookie but was a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs because he was still, after all… a seventh-round rookie.
We need to continue adding weapons and–given how hard it is for rookie receivers to play in Shanahan’s offense–we should be adding guys now rather than later. This receiver class has three guys up top who I consider home runs, but it’s an impressively deep class through the middle rounds. The second round in particular has A LOT of guys who I like, and the Niners seem to be visiting with a bunch of dudes with the intention of picking one up in either the second or third round.
I’d be surprised if we go wideout in the first round. After all, we will likely be returning our top three wideouts next season. But I would consider this the second-most likely position we draft in the first two days.
Defensive Line
No position group rotates more and needs more functional bodies than the defensive line. So despite the money and draft capital we’ve already invested in the position group, the DL will be very much in the picture throughout this draft. Before free agency, I would have said this was the second-most likely position we target in the first round. Now, I only think we spend No.31 on a defensive lineman if the exact right type of prospect falls to us.
A defensive end is preferable–we’ve basically been searching for a true speed guy opposite Bosa since our first Super Bowl–but interior guys are also on the docket, and they could present better value in the middle rounds. After signing four free agent defensive linemen this off-season, we don’t have to reach on anyone, but I’d expect we add two(ish) guys in the draft because so many of our linemen are on one- or two-year deals with potential outs after this season.
Cornerback
In theory, you’d think this would be the second-most likely position we pick at the end of the first round, and it probably is. But our roster-building principles try to minimize the spending on corners and we’ve shown that throughout the ShanaLynch tenure.
In the seven drafts under John Lynch, we’ve only drafted two corners in the first two days (Ambry Thomas and Ahkello Witherspoon) and have never drafted a corner higher than the third round. This is despite cornerback being a position of need entering MANY of those drafts. But there is some reason to believe that streak could be broken this year.
Our top four cornerbacks will all be unrestricted free agents after this year. Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir were lights out for us this season and played a major part in preventing our defense from falling apart when we didn’t have our A game. And there are a lot of cornerbacks graded around the first-round turn in this particular draft class.
The signing of Yiadom makes this slightly less of an urgent need, but drafting a corner in the first three rounds seems likely—specifically one who can play outside or a guy who they believe is versatile enough to fill part of the “star” nickel role that Brandon Staley has employed at his previous two stops.
Day 3 Dudes
Tight End - Is Cameron Latu the answer behind Kittle? While he could be taking a page from the Aaron Banks developmental playbook, that’s not an assumption we should be making. Blocking is key in our scheme, so the options are always thinner for us at tight end than squads who use the position more like a large receiver.
Lynch and Shanahan have been looking for a jumbo slot/tight end type since we burned a second-day pick on the never-healthy Jalen Hurd back in 2019. It’s a search that’s gone on as long as our pursuit of a right guard who is functional in pass protection. Realistically, the closest thing we have to a true second tight end at the moment is Jennings, who is a big body and an excellent blocker but still not someone we’d put in-line or in the backfield (except for when we accidentally run the ball with him, of course).
The ideal candidate is a Kittle backup and a potential heir apparent for Juice. We love our 21 formations, but there’s really only one Juice, and–when he retires–it may be easier to replace his production with an h-back/tight end tweener rather than a fullback. Granted, we have Brayden Willis and Jack Coletto on the squad, two guys who were picked largely for that very purpose. But given our failed pursuit of Brock Wright, we clearly aren’t confident that either is ready to take on full-time TE2 duties.
Safety - Tashaun Gipson has yet to decide whether he’ll play in 2024, and—given how we started Logan Ryan over J’Yair Brown in the divisional game against the Packers—I would guess the Niners would rather add a proven veteran as injury assurance to Huf and Brown than a fresh-faced rookie.
But whether it’s Gipson or another established starter, they’ll probably only be here for a year, which would time up exactly with when Huf becomes a UFA this time next off-season. So if the Niners are looking for a full-on succession plan—or simply a guy who can excel at special teams and be shaped into a reserve safety or a future linebacker (ala Flannigan-Fowles, Greenlaw, etc.) it may make sense to grab a guy now.
Running Back - While taking a third-round running back who flames out before stepping foot on the field has become a meme at this point, Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason are both UFAs at the end of this season, and it’s very likely we take someone late in the draft (or after the draft) who we hope can make an impact a year from now.
Everyone and their mother is worried about CMC’s touch count, including myself, so it’s worth wondering if we target someone with excellent third-down ability or if we stick to a more traditional back who can one-cut and get upfield in our zone and stretch games. Given I wouldn’t expect someone to be drafted at this position until the last two rounds (at the earliest), it may be a “beggars can’t be choosers” scenario.
Linebacker - Whether or not this is a need likely comes down to how confident we are in the development of the two linebackers we drafted last year and the recovery of Dre Greenlaw. Warner is locked up the for long haul, but Dre, Flannigan-Fowles, and De’Vondre Campbell are all UFAs after this season. And for all the talk about how our defense runs through our deep and talented defensive line, what truly makes our defense uniquely special is the ability to trot out two S-tier cover guys who are also rangy and physical against the run.
Go Niners 🏈👍