Preview: Wk 3 @ Giants

This thumbnail is no longer relevant [Al Bello]

Date: Sunday, 9/27
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: 10AM PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Joe Judge, winner of the most football coach-y name of the year award, comes in as the new head man for the Giants after spending the past seven years working special teams under Bill Belichick and three years prior under Nick Saban at Alabama. This dude’s resume is a crusty old owner’s wet dream. In general, I tend to approve when a team hires a special teams coordinator, even if—as is the case with Judge—I know nearly nothing about them. It’s much less sexy than an offensive or defensive coordinator hire, which implies that the coach actually has to be qualified, and due to that they probably had to coach at a high level for way more years than, say—an upcoming offensive coordinator who had a cup of tea with Sean McVay once—in order to be considered for the job. Also, because there’s no shot that you’re going to call your own plays on offense or defense, you can focus more on the managerial aspects of coaching, and you usually hire some legit coordinators and let them do their thing.

INJURY REPORT (aka SAD!)

This is a screen grab from my phone from The Athletic that shows the Niners’ current injury report:

Of note, this is the most names my screen could capture. Perhaps if I’d ponied up for an iPhone XL, I’d have been able to see the two names that were left off—Jason Verrett and Jalen Hurd.

Speaking of Verrett, let’s start with some good news. Jason Verrett was back at practice on Wednesday and he was a full participant. It’ll be interesting to see who gets the start or if they rotate between him and Witherspoon—who struggled last week—on Sunday… D.J. Jones (ankle) was off the injury report and back to practice on Wednesday on Thursday. He should play… Dre Greenlaw (thigh) practiced Wednesday but not Thursday, which could be precautionary or could be a setback… George Kittle, who is apparently dealing with a bone bruise and a sprained MCL, practiced limited on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering we’ll be on the same turf as last week, both Greenlaw and Kittle are question marks. Let’s not push anything… Jimmy Garoppolo’s high ankle sprain wasn’t as bad as initially expected. Shanahan has said he could play against the Giants, but—again, with the turf and his long-term health is more important than a single early-season game—I’d expect Mullens to get the start. FWIW, Garoppolo didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, which would make a start on Sunday seem highly unlikely… Raheem Mostert has a mild MCL sprain. He’s in Ohio this week for the birth of his second child (congrats!) and is not expected to play on Sunday. Let’s keep that speed speedy and give him at least the week off. Would be nice for his family as well since they have stayed in Ohio out of safety concerns with COVID this year… running mate Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain and will miss “multiple weeks,” meaning we should see UDFA JaMycal Hasty much sooner than we’d anticipated… Richie James is, I think, officially out for this game with a hamstring injury… Dee Ford, whose neck injury turned into a back injury, is out “indefinitely.” Your guess is as good as mine as to when we see him again. It may be quite a while… Richard Sherman and Deebo Samuel remain on short-term IR. Samuel will be eligible to return next week against the Eagles. Sherman the week after that… lastly, Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas’ torn ACLs were both confirmed earlier this week. Both of them will be put on IR and are out the rest of the season. May they both have speedy and full recoveries. To replace them, Dion Jordan has been promoted from the practice squad and Ezekiel Ansah was brought in on a one-year deal. Meanwhile, Damontre Moore, another potential option who the Niners seemed confident would be available if need be, was actually swooped up by the Seahawks earlier this year when I wasn’t paying attention. Sad.

OFFENSE

Running the Giants offense is Jason Garrett, and despite his consistently not-good-enough returns as the head man in Dallas, it’s easy to forget Garrett was one of the hottest coordinators in the business before his promotion. Garrett—like any head coach that Dallas owner Jerry Jones would dare to bring on—is a company man who seems boring as shit. But he wasn’t brought to New York to be interesting, he was hired to tutor second-year quarterback Daniel Jones.

While I’ve knocked the Giants for drafting Jones when they did (and I will continue to do so cause they could have got him considerably later), I actually like Jones as a player and would choose him or Drew Lock to build a team around rather than Dwayne Haskins—the QB who went second to Kyler Murray in that draft. Jones seems like a heady dude who isn’t easily rattled with good accuracy and nice touch all over the field. He’s far from a polished product, his raw stats haven’t been great thus far, and he’s still prone to some ill-timed turnovers, but he projects well, and Garrett will bend over backwards to try and keep him from going down the Josh Rosen/Sam Darnold path of potentially-career-ruining mismanagement. While Garrett’s open admission that he considers “any drive that ends in a kick a success” sounds almost like a caricature of himself (three and outs all end in kicks after all), you can at least understand the conservative nature with a young QB. When it comes to young signal-callers, this isn’t Garrett’s first rodeo, and he probably doesn’t get enough credit for the work he did in shaping former fourth-rounder Dak Prescott into what he is now. Normally I’d say the Giants would likely lean on the run game to protect Jones, but...they don’t really have a run game. So Garrett will likely try to lean on the quick game, using lots of curl-flat and spacing variations to scheme up easy completions, and—if week one is any indicator—relying heavily on shotgun and empty sets to minimize the pass rush, open up the field, and give Jones some single-side two-receiver reads. To be clear, this is not the Jets. They can and will throw the ball down the field if they can protect it.

With Saquon Barkley’s injury, the Giants will be missing their best player in this game, but they realistically hadn’t figured out how to use him in the first two weeks anyways. To replace him they added Devonta Freeman. He’ll play on Sunday, but it will be interesting to see if he’ll have pass protections down by then. If not, his presence will likely signal a run or play action. Surrounding Jones will be a ton of 2’s and 3’s but no real 1’s. Golden Tate is a strong after-the-catch veteran but is certainly on the backend of his career. Tight end Evan Engram has some ability and—after a down year in 2019–the former first-round pick is surely meant to be a reclamation project for Garrett. Second-year wideout Darius Slayton could be in for a breakout season. While they don’t have any clear go-to guys, the worst of the above skill guys is likely better than the best the Jets had to offer by the end of last week. They can find open spots in zones. If given the chance, some of them can even break big plays.

The biggest question lies in the Giants’ offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks and twelve QB hits across their first two games. In their defense, they’ve gone up against two of the better defensive fronts in football in the Steelers and Bears. While it’s hard to say how much of the OL performance is based on overall competency versus strength of opposition, if we can apply similar pressure despite our injuries, then our defense should be in good shape.

Considering our decimated DL, that might mean more blitzing, and while Saleh always seems to dial up a blitz or two at exactly the right time, sending extra bodies is not exactly our strength. Against this OL, perhaps our pass rush will still be strong enough to get by without blitzing. Perhaps not. Perhaps we should be blitzing more regardless as it’s something we’re sure to need down the road with Bosa and Thomas gone for the year and Dee Ford missing indefinitely.

Regardless of how we apply it, if we can maintain pressure on Jones, our defense should be in good shape. The Giants run a methodical kind of attack that lets them string together long drives—against the Steelers they had a 19-play drive that fizzled out after a red zone pick. If they’re allowed to, they have the diversity of talent and play-calling to pepper down the field, chew up clock, and tire out our undermanned DL. Applying pressure to mix up Jones’ reads and mess up his clock is the best way to create the forced passes and late throws underneath that the second-year signal-caller suffers from in spurts.

This is not an overly dynamic offense, but it’s also far from the lowly Jets. They’re not going to explode for 30+ per game, but they have the means of moving the ball and controlling game flow if we let them. Getting them out of sync early will be important so as not to wear out what is already a thin defensive unit.

DEFENSE

Patrick Graham is the new defensive coordinator, and he takes over a group that was—in 2019—pretty good against the run, absolutely horrid against the pass, and overall just not that great. Graham likes to run a multiple front, winning by disguise and variation. He’s shown plenty of four- and three-man fronts in the early goings this season, and—since he and Judge are part of the extended Patriots tree and Graham was DC for the Dolphins last year—they likely want to move to a position-less front seven. But that’s somewhere down the road. Regardless of the front, they typically employ a six man box and five (or more) DBs on the field—giving up the extra size for more versatility. 

Just like the Jets last week, there’s talent and draft capital that’s been put into this defensive line, but it’s shown up much more in the run game. Former 6th overall pick Leonard Williams was their big trade deadline pickup last year. He’s strong against the run but has only 18.5 sacks in 76 career starts in the NFL—including a grand total of half a sack in 16 games last year. Based on the idea that a bit under half of QB hits typically become sacks, you’d think his 103 QB hits during that span would eventually even out, but at this point it seems like he’s a walking exception to the rule who simply doesn’t close. He’s joined by Dalvin Tomlinson and promising 2019 first-rounder Dexter Lawrence, both capable run-stoppers who have so far shown little as pass rushers. If there’s hope for an in-line pass rusher it’s Lorenzo Carter, who’s shown some juice off the edge in the opening games. 

In the off-season the Giants brought in run-stuffer Blake Martinez to man the mike linebacker position of their defense. The Stanford product doesn’t give you a ton in coverage but is strong between the tackles and has flashed as a pass-rusher in the past.

In the secondary, the Giants prefer a 5 DB look with three safeties, choosing to roll down Jabrill Peppers into a box/quasi-linebacker role while keeping the other two deep. At corner, James Bradberry is likely their top guy. He’s not spectacular but isn’t a liability either. 2019 first-round pick DeAndre Baker was supposed to be their other boundary corner, but—after losing big money during a pandemic dice game, robbing the winners at gunpoint, and possibly putting out a hit on the witnesses so that they didn’t testify—he was let go. Hence their other boundary corner is Corey Ballentine, the rookie Darnay Holmes mans the slot, and both have had a rough go of things so far. The cornerback position is a work in progress and a definite weak spot. Undermanned out wide and with our backup quarterback making his first start in over a year, will we be able to take advantage of it?

EMERGENCY NICK MULLENS SECTION

I guess this is about as good a time as ever to get reacquainted with our backup quarterback. Mullens, an UDFA in 2017, got his first career start midway through 2018 against the Oakland Raiders, running train on them in hilarious fashion with 262 passing yards, 3 tugs, and the best QB rating ever in an NFL debut (151.9). Mullens’ debut, on national television nonetheless, was so impressive that he gained a Twitter blue checkmark mid-game. Given the current state of our injury report, let us bask in the glory of that moment for a bit:

Check out player highlights of Nick Mullens debut in Week 9. The Oakland Raiders take on the San Francisco 49ers during Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season. Subscr...

While lacking in ideal size or arm talent, Mullens is a confident dude who—for better or worse—isn’t afraid to rifle passes into tight windows. While he lacks a true deep ball arm, he flashes nice velocity on underneath passes and can get the ball out quickly and decisively. He went 3-5 for a team that was 1-7 without him—including a win over a playoff-bound Seattle team that was vying for seeding position—and is one of the better backup QBs in the league.

If you’re looking for “a play it safe,” quarterback who wants to do “just enough to get by,” Mullens is NOT your guy. His 3.6% interception percentage in 2018 was tied for fourth-highest in the NFL alongside stalwarts—and then fellow rookies—Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold. He also threw a pick and fumbled twice last week. While he’ll surely look smoother with first-team reps in practice, Mullens has a go-get-it mentality. He’s not a game manager. Against a young squad like the Giants that may seem like a potential liability, and perhaps it will be. But in a matchup where we don’t have a talent advantage, Mullens’ aggressive mindset may be necessary to give us a puncher’s chance while we’re down so many of our key parts. As of now it’s impossible to say how much—if any—we’ll see Mullens in the upcoming weeks, but if the Niners want to ride out the 4-6 week high ankle injury timetable before putting Jimmy back in the fray then how Mullens performs could decide whether or not we have a shot at defending the NFC West crown down the stretch.

Anyways, back to the Giants…

With a new coaching staff and scheme, particularly one that is so multiple in its approach, it’s tough to tell what this defense will look like from week-to-week. If I had to guess, their shift towards smaller personnel will help their pass rush but hurt their run defense. Benny Snell rumbled for 113 yards on a healthy 5.9 YPC in the opener, the Bears ran for another 135 on 4.2 YPC last week, and count me as skeptical on the idea of six-man boxes and extra safeties stopping us from absolutely gashing, especially on edge runs. It is very hard for these quasi-box/quasi-alley safeties at 5-7 yards off the line to fill the right hole at the right time against a stretch rushing attack that has ever-changing points of attack, the constant threat of cut back lanes, and employs track stars in the backfield who—by the time they’ve committed to a hole—are firing into the second-level like they’re shot out of a cannon. For reference, the last team to try a 6-man box with safeties filling on the edges against us was the Packers in the playoffs, and well... yeah. If we had Mostert I’d be throwing down money that he’d spring another gigantic TD run in this one, but without him and Coleman, it’s hard to be as confident in scoring game-breaking runs. Regardless, there should be room to run as long as we have our eyes up and are willing to attack the cutback.

Our offensive line should be able to get push in the run game, but they’ll need to protect Mullens better than they did against the Jets—especially since there hasn’t been a backup quarterback in league history who hasn’t gotten the shit blitzed out of him the second he came in the game. While our QBs were efficient in chipping away at the Jets’ zone coverage, they did suffer three sacks and got hit an alarming 11 times. Part of that was Jimmy not being able to move, part of it was the Jets teeing off on Mullens, but—regardless of passing efficiency or defensive scheme—unless we want the Nick Mullens era to quickly give way to the CJ Beathard one, we need to protect our quarterback better in this one. If our OL can pick up the Giants’ various fronts and pass rush stunts, there’s little reason to think the Giants’ back seven will be able to shut down our skill guys—especially with Sanu and (potentially) Kittle added to the fold. A new coaching staff with a multiple defense isn’t the dream first matchup for a backup QB making his first start in over a year, and I’m sure they’ll do everything they can to confuse Mullens with blitz looks and odd coverages. In response, I’d guess the Niners will break him in easy with more single-side reads, quick game, and play action as they figure out what the Giants are doing coverage-wise. From there it’ll be up to Mullens to deliver.

Go Niners 👍🏈