Cardinals 24, 49ers 20
Missed opportunities abound as we start the season 0-1
![Some bullshit about the scoring system in horseshoes [Paul Kitagaki Jr.]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1600145180584-3ICNH7EPEO9EAT1FAMZQ/KB+underthrow.jpeg)
Some bullshit about the scoring system in horseshoes [Paul Kitagaki Jr.]
Well that sucked.
In a game that felt somewhere between last year’s matchups against the Steelers and Falcons but with a result more like the latter, the Niners dropped their first game of the season to go 0-1 while every other team in the division won.
Already, there’s some catching up to do.
OFFENSE
Despite a hot start to the game that saw us put up 190 yards and 10 points (should have been 17) on 22 plays for an outstanding 8.63 yard per play average—our offense fizzled for large stretches of the mid-game. Tasked with pulling out two would-be go-ahead touchdown drives to secure the game in the fourth quarter, our discombobulated passing attack fell just short.
Wideout Shortage: With Samuel and Aiyuk sidelined, the Niners entered the game with four healthy wideouts. Then Richie James got hurt early (he played only 10 snaps, including specials), giving us three. While the team went in knowing that they’d be limited and would have to target their backs and tight ends more in the passing game, having only three wideouts—one of them almost exclusively a slot receiver—pretty much relegated the team to 12, 21, and 22 personnel the rest of the way. When the Niners did line up with all three of their healthy wideouts, the results were pretty rough. Per PFF:
With three or more wide receivers on the field, San Francisco produced -0.7 expected points added per pass, by far the lowest among offenses on such plays today.
Even with an injured Kittle a non-factor in the second half, the backs and tight ends tallied 15 catches, 218 yards, and 2 TDs through the air. In contrast, the receivers combined for 4 grabs for 41 yards. It’s not even that our wideouts played all that poorly, just that their No.1 on our No.3–and the snowball effect that creates for matchups down the line—isn’t a battle we should expect to dominate. Clearly we need more health and production from our wideouts moving forward. As of now Aiyuk is expected to play on Sunday. Even if he does, the Niners may have a chat with Mohamed Sanu during the week.
OL stock check: With Ben Garland a game-time inactive, practice squadder Hroniss Grasu became our starting center. All things considered, he seemed to play okay. Right guard Daniel Brunskill actually struggled more, giving up an early sack and missing some blocks in the run game—likely in part since he had to take mostly center snaps during training camp. Beside Brunskill, McGlinchey didn’t have his best game either, making our right side inconsistent in the opener.
Despite that our OL played okay as a unit, helping us rush for 123 on 4.9 yards per carry despite an often wavering passing attack. But there was one very clear positive. Trent Williams seems to be living up to the hype—as evidenced by this snuff film:
While our long run of the game was an early 16-yard scamper from Mostert, we were on the brink of a few big gains, including the play above—where it’s a TD if Trent Taylor makes his block—and the Mostert bend-back where Budda narrowly tripped him up—turning a likely 60-yard touchdown scamper into a 3-yard gain. Ultimately our split flow backfield blocking action seemed to give us the most success. We could have potentially gone to it more often to off-set their aggressive front seven, but the looks were there; we should expect to hit more of them in future weeks.
Isaiah Simmons Watch: The Cardinals used their first round pick in way more positions than I’d have expected given the matchup. This led to—ahem—mixed results. Per PFF:
[Simmons] logged 18 snaps in total, lining up in the box, slot, defensive line and at outside corner. What he did in coverage, however, was nothing like what we saw from him at Clemson. On his eight coverage snaps, Simmons was targeted three times — he allowed three catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns.
That includes this beauty of a play, where Shanahan uses alignments and deep route combinations to pull every single defender out of the way and create a runway down the middle of the field. Anything that’s made into a foot race is good for us, and this play saw Mostert hit a top speed of 22.74 mph, the fastest speed of any ball carrier over the past two years.
I don’t hate the nickname.
Simmons also had a 15-yard penalty on the very first play of the game and was a big part in the (at the time) go-ahead touchdown. The rookie’s got talent, but… not a great start.
Jimmy “Not Great, Bob” Garoppolo. Man he struggled, especially down the stretch. He looked bad. Probably the worst he’s looked over a full game since... week 1 of last year against the Bucs? He had some success early, seemed to be in rhythm, but his timing and accuracy really wavered as the game went on. Part of that was due to the pressure he was facing, but despite all of our issues offensively, we had guys open for potential big plays and we simply couldn’t make it happen.
Considering the pressure he was facing on his throwing side, I’ll cut Jimmy some slack here. You’d have liked for him to come off the left side earlier after looking off the safety, but it’s hard to blame him in full given he couldn’t step, slide, or follow through towards the open man.
Here the Niners use a three-man cluster of tight ends and backs to create confusion on defensive assignments. While Chandler Jones recognizes and widens to contact Mostert out of the backfield, Mostert is our #1 read here and this is the exact matchup we want. Garoppolo pops off the read in a hurry, missing the fact that Jones lets Mostert go—handing him off to a DB who never arrives. This leads to a blown coverage so severe that it alarms both Jones and Mostert.
You and me both, Raheem. You and me both.
It takes a special kind of open for your mild-mannered former special teamer running back to start throwing his arms up in the air for the ball. Jimmy needs to see and hit that layup for a touchdown.
This one is entirely on Jimmy G, and seeing as I have no access to coaches film at the moment, this is the best look you’re gonna get at it. With no pressure and KB running an outstanding route to get wide open, Jimmy G has to make this throw. It’s literally the ballgame.
And of course it was Jimmy G’s inaccuracy (and a missed block out wide) which led to what was potentially the most important play of the game—the fast screen to Kittle that sailed high and ultimately led to (what has now been diagnosed as) a knee sprain.
Sure, Kittle came back in the second half and finished the game, but he wasn’t targeted once or involved in the game plan. I shouldn’t have to remind anyone how important Kittle is to our offensive success, but here’s a look at what it was like in week 1.
Before the knee sprain: 30 plays, 227 yards, 7.57 YPP
After the knee sprain: 31 plays, 139 yards, 4.48 YPP
Did an emphasis on avoiding turnovers over make Jimmy G gun-shy in this opening week? Did the constant pressure throw off his timing? Did a lack of faith in his receivers make cause him to hesitate? Does he just suck in season openers? I dunno, but he looked skittish in the pocket, was late on a number of reads and passes, and simply wasn’t putting the ball in the right spots with the right velocity this game. He’ll need to right the ship quickly while on the road with an offense that will continue to be undermanned.
DEFENSE
Now you know why I insist on Bill O’Brien keeping up with his steady meal plan of dicks. Think of what this Cardinals offense would have looked like without DeAndre Hopkins. Alas, this is the world we live in, and the Murray to Hopkins combo is a problem we’ll have to see twice a year for many years to come. Hooray.
Stop Routes 4ever: In this game the Niners started flipping Sherman and Moseley depending on what hash the ball was on. Sherm would play the wide or field side of the defense while Moseley would play the short or boundary side. It didn’t do much in the opener as DeAndre Hopkins loves boundary play and simply feasted on stop routes.
The Cardinals repeatedly used alignments and route combinations to pull the flat defender out of the way, creating one-on-one matchups with Hopkins on our corners—who are usually playing zone coverage over top—and vacating the space underneath for all manner of stop routes, outs, comebacks, and back shoulders. It’s not something we weren’t prepared for, but now the Cardinals have one of the best wideouts in the league; thus, in large quantities, these plays became difference-makers and chain-movers.
A big veteran like Sherman—who has the size, length, and ability to bang down the field with Hopkins and break hard on these comeback type routes—at least has a chance to do something about those kinds of plays. Moseley, for as much potential as he has, was out of his element. He had to give cushion to prevent the deep bomb, and that meant he was routinely a half-step short breaking on Hopkins’ stop routes.
This is the kind of problem you run into when you alternate largely between Cover 3 and Quarters. Hopkins had 151 of the team’s 230 receiving yards, but—with the exception of that 33 yard crosser in the fourth quarter against a busted coverage—averaged only 9 yards a catch on what seemed like an endless barrage of variations of what is at its heart the same exact route. These completions—combined with our out-of-sync passing attack—fed the Cardinals’ massive third down conversion advantage, which in turn gassed our defense.
Again, this is nothing new, as we’ve seen these routes repeatedly from the Cardinals, Seahawks, and the Falcons last year. But if we aren’t comfortable with our corners playing more physically at the line of scrimmage to combat it, we need to find ways of employing some kind of change-up coverage to take away those easy completions. At one point in the third quarter it looked like we were toying with exactly that.
On third-and-nine, the Cardinals want to hit Hopkins on the deep out equivalent of a back shoulder fade.
The Niners show a two-deep off coverage, implying some form of quarters/Cover 4.
But on the snap, instead of sitting back deep, Jimmie Ward creeps up towards the LOS while Kwon, instead of widening to play the flat, sprints to undercut any comeback or (potentially) in-breaking route from Hopkins. Now, there’s a chance I’m full of shit and Kwon just widened out to No.1 because he saw the back (No.2 receiver) block down, but given Ward’s reaction at the snap, I feel like this is an intentional split coverage to combat the two-man isolation game from Hopkins.
As you can see from this alternate angle (sorry again, without coaches cam it’s hard to show this smoothly), Kwon and Sherman are running some sort of high-low game on Hopkins. But in this case, the completion was made anyways cause of course it was. Did Kwon go too far down field and not widen enough or was he told to play inside and under? Was Sherman playing too far inside, expecting a more tradition stop route? Who knows, but the two talked this through while en route back to the huddle after the play, so there’s something to this, and we’re one of the few teams that has the speed at linebacker to pull this kind of things off.
While it didn’t work this time, it at least seems to imply that the Niners are trying out change-ups and trap coverages to counteract the teams that try to abuse stop routes against our Cover 3/Cover 4 looks—even if those coverages are still a bit of a work-in-progress at the moment.
Murray scrambles: By the second half we weren’t doing the best job of keeping our lane integrity on pass rushes, and—when that happened—Murray made us pay.
It also didn’t help that we couldn’t touch him. I’m sorry, but if a quarterback is allowed to slide cleats up into a defender’s knees repeatedly—a move which leads to cleared dugouts and plunked batters in baseball because of how dangerous it is—defenders should be able to hit him when he’s diving forward for extra yardage. And they definitely should be able to lightly tap him on the shoulder.
A head-first dive means you should be fair game, just like you are on every QB sneak or how every other ball carrier is treated when they dive for extra yardage. If not, you have to at least treat a forward dive like a slide and kill the advancement of yardage at the spot of the ball once they start the movement. You can’t have it both ways.
Anyways, expect to see those same chicken shit calls every time we play the Cardinals and the Seahawks from now until eternity.
Kwon looked lost: Whether it was missed tackles, bad angles, or just looking hesitant in space—particularly on one long Murray run when Kwon decided to turn and cover a receiver instead of pressure Murray—Kwon had a forgetful game. This was accentuated by the fact that Dre Greenlaw, in less than half as many snaps, was much more sound and impactful—particularly in his batted ball on a Cardinals RPO that turned into Tartt’s interception.
Back-breakingly long drive PTSD: We’ve seen this kind of thing before. Niners offense has a few short and ugly outings, Niners defense gets caught in an exceptionally long drive, and the draining nature of it all saps our defense of its endurance down the stretch. This week, our defense was on the field for more snaps (78) than any game in the past two years. More so than the Super Bowl. More so than the OT loss to Seattle that went the entire extra period. And we felt it.
This time, the breaking point was the 14 play, 94-yard touchdown drive that took 6:48 off the clock. We rely so much on a fresh rotation of defensive linemen that these kind of stretches are particularly dangerous for our defense. Even more so when the drive is aided by a holding call that just as easily could have been a safety and a total of 33 yards and 3 first downs due to some incredibly suspect penalties.
One way to prevent this in the future is to do better on offense, particularly on third downs, but even after we responded to their score with a 6 play, 78-yard, touchdown drive, our defense was clearly not the same in allowing the go-ahead score on the very next drive.
In the NFC West every loss has the chance to be a substantial one, but I wouldn’t hit the alarm button quite yet. Yes, George Kittle may miss time with a knee sprain; yes, we still have a number of other injured players who we’re awaiting the return of; and yes, we have plenty to clean up on both sides of the ball if we want to contend again this year. But the hardest part of our schedule is in the middle, and this year’s Niners are well aware that they want to start peaking later rather than earlier.
Also, we play the Jets next week. If we lose that game, then it’s time to worry.
Wk1 Preview: vs. Cardinals
Have the Cardinals fixed their TE/RB problem?
![Budda Baker enjoying The Kittle Experience [Matt Kartozian]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1599694160980-AVXJE1T33NQ1NTUTC4Y6/usa_today_13599102.0.jpg)
Budda Baker enjoying The Kittle Experience [Matt Kartozian]
vs. Arizona Cardinals
Date: Sunday, 9/13
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
Channel: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally
Despite placing last in the NFC West a year ago, the Cardinals have ridden a strong finish, the entirely-due-to-luck acquisition of one of the top wideouts in the league (eat a dick Bill O’Brien), and bubbling nationwide hype behind sophomore Kyler Murray to become a popular dark horse playoff candidate in year two of the Kliff Kingsbury era. It’s not an outrageous claim, but... we’ll get the first glimpse as to how realistic it is comes Sunday.
Injury Report
As of Wednesday…
49ers Offense: Mostly good news on the injury front here. Juice (hamstring) was back at practice on Monday, so he should be good to go… Ben Garland (ankle) is back after missing the latter half of training camp, but he was limited. His status for Sunday is up in the air, but if he can go that would be HUGE... Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk remained out of practice as of Wednesday. They’re both still considered maybes for week one. While I’d love to see them, I will once again stress not bringing anyone back early from a hamstring injury if they’re not ready.
49ers Defense: Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have both dressed for practice all week. They’ll play... Fred Warner was on the COVID/Reserve list to start the week, but—as of Wednesday—was re-activated. He’s good to go as well... Jason Verrett, who I just praised for staying healthy, is out with a hamstring strain, but it’s minor. This means Ahkello Witherspoon should be our third corner… Ronald Blair was a surprise addition to the PUP list last weekend, meaning he won’t be playing in this game or at least the next five. That will hurt our immediate defensive end depth, and could lead to a game day practice squad promotion for Dion Jordan, or some edge snaps for Kentavius Street or (please no, just keep him inside) Solomon Thomas.
Cardinals: Would-be outside starting corner Robert Alford will miss the season, meaning long-time Bengal import Dre Kirkpatrick will likely start outside... Rookie tackle Josh Jones didn’t participate in practice on Wednesday. As a developmental rookie, I would assume he wouldn’t be starting ready anyways, but apparently he’s been competing for first-team reps… Maxx Williams was a limited participant, as were a few other guys for non-injury related purposes (aka veteran days).
ON DEFENSE
Kliff Kingsbury scraped together a hodgepodge of parts into what was the the 13th-best offense in terms of DVOA in 2019. Now, in Kyler Murray’s second year, with the addition of one of the top wideouts in the game, with the theoretical maturation of at least one of the three wideouts they drafted in the first four rounds of last year’s draft, and with the team more comfortable in the offensive scheme, the going belief is that this unit is prepared to take the next step.
That will depend mostly on how well Kliff develops his players, if the offensive line—which gained no immediate contributors in the off-season—has improved, and how well Kliff continues to adapt to a league that now has a full season of tape on his offense. Many so-called “offensive gurus” have started hot in the NFL, but it’s how they sustain that matters. Just two years ago Matt Nagy was one of the top offensive minds in football. A few seasons before that, Chip Kelly’s innovative shotgun spread attack was revolutionizing professional football. A year ago to date the Browns were a Vegas favorite to win the Super Bowl based on the coaching ability and explosive offense of Freddie Kitchens. Teams adapt. Sample size is important.
The task that the Cardinals—and, in a different way, the Ravens—now face is that their collegiate-rooted offense is now on tape, and NFL coaches have had an entire off-season to study film, get tips and pointers from the college coaches who have seen these offenses for years, and scheme up new ways to counteract these looks. Oddly enough, COVID may be something that actually helps both of these offenses, as it’s unlikely NFL coaches were able to take as many (if any) of the types of college visits that they would have otherwise made this off-season.
Scheme
The Cardinals run an Air Raid offense, which means no-huddle hurry-up sets, more shotgun snaps than anyone in the league (other than the Ravens’ gun/pistol option attack), and an offensive strategy that spreads the field horizontally then exploits the widened alignments and space of the defense.
Despite the scheme name, the Cardinals were actually at their best running the ball in 2019. According to Football Outsiders, they were the second-most efficient rushing attack (to the Ravens) in the NFL, in no small part due to Kyler Murray’s 544 yards and four scores on the ground and the fact that their wide alignments and passing lean meant they ran into the second fewest eight+ man boxes in the league. Also in contrast to Kingsbury’s college history—and his ill-fated attempt to start the season with lots of 11 and 10 personnel sets—the Cardinals did their best work in 12 personnel, when they committed to extra gaps behind Charles Clay and their elite run-blocking tight end Maxx “one x short of a Vin Diesel movie, two short of a porn star, and three short of Vin Diesel playing a porn star who stresses the importance of family and also the crisp light taste of a Corona pale lager” Williams. In the second year of his system and with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Kliff likely wants to do a bit more in 10 and 11 this year, but he has shown a schematic flexibility when necessary.
The Cardinals are at their best running inside, where their wide splits and multiple gaps give more room for the elusive Kenyan Drake to make defenders miss and gobble up yardage. At times this seemed to be doubly effective against us, as our commitment to undersized interior linemen and wide alignments seemingly played into their strategy.
Last year the Cardinals were one of the most successful teams when it came to running the ball against our vaunted defense, averaging 144 yards on the ground at a worrisome 6.1 yards per clip. They did this mostly with shotgun power runs that did the brunt of their damage by using double teams to wash out an interior lineman and/or relying on the awkward/delayed timing of their shotgun handoffs to mess up the reaction time and run fits of our linebackers. This led to some larger-than-ideal holes and a few missed tackles, which in turn led to big gains on the ground. In order to prevent history from repeating itself, we’ll need Javon Kinlaw, DJ Jones (who missed one of the Cardinals games last year), and the rest of our interior linemen to hold the line against double teams, our linebackers to trigger downhill faster for proper run fits, and everyone to tackle better in the open field.
Despite their efficiency on the ground, this is a team that wants to pass. Last year, the Cardinals threw on early downs more often than all but three other teams, a tactic that—similar to the tempo of the no-huddle hurry-up offense itself—aims to attack the more vanilla coverages that are often seen on first and second downs so that third downs become easier to convert.
Through the air, the Cardinals are all about getting the ball out quickly, threatening teams horizontally with WR screens, shallow crossers such as mesh, and a litany of short game concepts like snap, stick, spot, that stress tacklers’ angles and form in the open field. When teams get complacent in the short game they’ll threaten over the top with a beautifully thrown deep ball, working the one-on-one matchups created by alignment and in general “throwing to grass” (aka, the open field). No doubt, those deep shots become more dangerous with Hopkins, a physical jump ball beast, now in the fold (keep eating that dick Bill O’Brien). Nuk should also help their red zone offense, which was near the bottom of the league and relied almost entirely on Larry Fitzgerald on the goal line (10 of the team’s 14 targets inside the 5-yard line).
Kingsbury’s air raid is a perfect schematic fit for Kyler’s quick read-and-release skills, his ability to field and throw the ball quickly from different launch points (like a shortstop in baseball), and his tremendous accuracy and touch on deep balls. It also widens out the defense so that Murray can use his legs to buy time and more easily find passing or running lanes despite his 5-9 frame. But there are a few issues in the passing game that have largely been masked by the offense’s high completion percentages and passing game volume. There are some empty calories here that should be unpacked.
Murray had the second-most RPO plays among all QBs last year (unsurprisingly, the Ravens were first). He also threw more wide receiver screens than anyone else in football. In fact, on first downs—when the Cardinals threw all the time—41% of Murray’s completions came at or behind the line of scrimmage. There’s nothing wrong with that, especially since the Cardinals have a very effective screen game, but it also shouldn’t be surprising that—when it comes to average air yards per pass—Murray ranked 32nd in the league. Granted, that was higher than Jimmy G, but when you account for their widely disparate situational efficiency metrics, you can see where this offense fizzled out.
**I was supposed to have a chart for this, but Pro-Football-Reference decided to erase its Advanced Splits today and I didn’t record the data beforehand, so alas, I’ll try to explain it**
While Jimmy G’s efficiency, YPA, and completion percentage stayed pretty stable on down and distance—with a slight dip for third-and-7+ that is expected given its difficulty—Murray’s efficiency decreased exponentially the later the down and the distance. Even if you isolated for air travel, Murray’s efficiency plummeted despite the great touch he throws on deep balls.
Basically, despite being an Air Raid team, when the Cardinals really had to drop back and throw intermediate or deep passes in crunch time, their efficiency plummeted across the board. My guess is that’s due to a combination of three factors: (1) intermediate passing is way more complicated than the pre-snap-heavy, single-read nature of quick game and RPOs; (2) coverages are more complex on third and fourth downs; and (3) there’s no way around the fact that drop back passing means your offensive line actually has to block. In a sense, the Cardinals last year minimized reads for their rookie QB and minimized blocking responsibility for an offensive line that—in conjunction with Murray’s tendency to hold the ball too long—allowed a league-high 48 sacks in 2019 (7 to us in two meetings). That’s smart game planning, but it can only get you so far.
While the Cardinals’ 8th-best pressure rate allowed as a unit would imply that this OL could be better than I’m giving them credit, I think that statistic has been boosted by screens and quick game. It’s more a product of scheme than talent. Thus, our goal as a defense should be to force this team to get their yards through true drop back passing. If our front seven can eliminate the cheap yardage off of runs and our DL and secondary can stack and stuff screens and minimize YAC in the quick game, then the matchup becomes less about downfield pursuit angles and tackling in the open field and more about a second-year quarterback reading a full defense while a “possibly decent” offensive line goes up against the best defensive line in football.
ONE PLAY
Taking away the short game means slowing up the QB-to-WR connection, which can be accomplished by (a) jarring receivers off their routes to mess up their timing with the quarterback or (b) confusing the quarterback’s reads to mess up his timing with the receivers.
Unless the mysterious “wrinkles” that new DB coach Tony Oden has added to our arsenal include more man coverage or rolled up/squat corners, our defense is mostly a zone-heavy scheme that oscillates between Cover 3, Cover 4, and a few split-field looks. That means the majority of our coverage disguises are on the back-end—clouding the vertical game to bide time for our pass rush—rather than the front-end. That means, if we’re trying to trap Murray into a bad read so that he becomes gun shy in the passing game, it will likely be up to our linebackers underneath. Like in the play below:
Here, the Niners show a two-high Cover 4 look but are actually in…
Cover 3 Buzz, where the corners and Jimmie Ward take deep thirds while Tartt and Warner sit underneath, taking away the hook zones.
Warner’s inside alignment is key. By lining up in the box and near the LOS, the Niners prevent the dreaded “auto-check to a QB draw” that happens all the time with athletic quarterbacks when the box vacates. In addition to being a QB run deterrent, Warner’s alignment also acts as the bait...
K’Waun Williams is the read defender here. Seeing the numbers advantage and the apparent space available, Murray knows that if K’Waun follows the No.2 WR on the quick out, he can hit the stick underneath. And If K’Waun sits on the stick, Murray can hit the out. Given the fact that the safety is 15 yards off, the latter is already less likely, and Murray is thinking stick route pre-snap.
Warner knows his responsibility is to take away any interior underneath routes here, but since he sees the receivers’ alignment he’s aware that he can take his drop just by mirroring Murray’s eyes and body.
At this point, Murray is past the point of no return. Warner’s path has kept him out of Murray’s periphery, Murray knows he needs to get this ball out early and on time for the concept to work, and—if Warner could just hold onto the ball—this would be the perfect example of the kind of bait plays we need to rattle Murray’s confidence and throw off the timing of the Cardinals’ quick game.
Here it is at normal speed—with an endzone angle where you can really see Warner widen while keeping his eyes locked on Murray’s—posted via the burner account that I use only for posting videos and submitting to competitions that require a Twitter account.
ON OFFENSE
More so than anyone else last year, Vance Joseph’s Cardinals defense really dared us to pass. They loaded the box with eight or nine bodies, widened their linebackers to the edges to stop us from flanking them in the run game, and played man coverage across the board. They forced us to throw the ball.
So throw the ball we did.
In two games against the Cardinals, Jimmy G threw for 741 yards and 8 touchdowns with a 75% completion percentage while leading the team to 853 yards of total offense. This was despite missing Juice, McGlinchey, Kittle for one game, Staley for both, and before Mostert took over the primary running back role. Needless to say, the Cardinals knew change was needed.
SCHEME
The Cardinals’ defense is a 3-4 scheme that is hyper aggressive, leaning heavily on man coverage across the board while blitzing the third-most in the NFL. This led to a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense but the single worst passing defense in the league, in part because—despite their penchant for blitzing—they were one of the league’s worst teams in terms of blitzing efficiency. Hoping to improve on that end, the Cardinals went out and made a series of additions to their defense.
In comes Jordan Phillips along their DL, a 6-6, 341-pound behemoth from Buffalo who had largely underperformed until breaking out in a contract year with 9.5 sacks in 2019. While a contract year burst plus an unsustainable sacks-to-QB hits ratio both overstate his true impact and imply upcoming regression, he’s probably still better than whoever he replaced. The reliably above-average Devon Kennard, via the Lions, will start opposite Chandler Jones in an attempt to bolster the pass rush, even though Kennard is actually a better run defender than rusher. Despite the constantly changing schemes and personnel in Arizona, Jones has been an edge-rusher stalwart for years, logging 11+ sacks in six of his last seven campaigns. This includes 19 last year—a half-sack off the NFL lead. He is without a doubt their most dangerous defensive player.
While the additions to the front seven may lead the Cardinals to blitz a bit less than last season, their lean towards man coverage is likely to stick. That’s partly because they have Patrick Peterson, who they expect to rebound from a down year in 2019, and partly because man coverage could ease first-round pick Isaiah Simmons’ transition to the NFL. An absolute athletic freak who made plays all over the field in college, some people had Simmons rated as a top-three prospect, but he slipped to the Cardinals at 8 because his greatest strength—being a position-less uber athlete—made him difficult to project. He played everywhere from corner to safety to linebacker to defensive end in college, a moveable all-purpose chess piece who was big enough and athletic enough to make plays from each position. But in order to optimize his ability in the NFL, the team who drafts him will likely need to do something similar. While his role will be under wraps until the games begin, my guess is that he’s a space linebacker/giant slot who starts out as a linebacker but extends over slots as an all-purpose body who they can throw at their problems. The chief of those problems being George Kittle.
This Cardinals defense was near the bottom of the league at guarding both tight ends and running backs last year and consider me skeptical that a rookie in his NFL debut is going to shut down the best tight end in football. But with potentially two of our three would-be starting wideouts out with injury, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cardinals once again load the box and dare us to pass, hoping they can hold up in coverage long enough to get home against our potentially suspect interior. If that’s the case, the employment of heavy sets with Kittle, Juice (if he plays), and Jordan Reed could be necessary both to establish some kind of run game and to create mismatches with our backs and tight ends in the passing game. Given the circumstances, don’t be surprised if Jet McKinnon’s much-awaited debut is an active one in the passing game. Remember, this is the team that Ross Dwelley had two scores against and that Kittle scorched despite having a broken bone in his ankle during the clip above. The Cardinals will certainly try to take away out matchup bigs with some combination of Simmons and box/slot safety Budda Baker. Despite being the highest-paid safety in the league, leading the NFL in tackles, and being an absolute stud in the run game, Baker is still a guy with zero picks and only 14 pass deflections in three years in the league. He doesn’t move the needle much in pass coverage. Having Samuel/Aiyuk for game time would be awesome, but Shanahan should be able to manufacture some open receivers regardless given how many big, fast bodies we currently employ.
Due to Ben Garland’s precarious injury status, I am genuinely worried about a Daniel Brunskill at center and Tom Compton at right guard interior if it comes to that (or Colton McKivitz at right guard if he’s really unseated the veteran already). Neither have gotten rave reviews during the pass-pro sections of practice, but then again, interior linemen get shafted in those drills and the hope is that—like last year—that’s more a testament to our defensive line dominance than issues along the offensive line. That might not even be the Garland-less fallback plan considering Brunskill has seen snaps and seems more comfortable at right guard. Practice squad center Hroniss Grasu will likely be a game day addition to the active roster. Maybe he’s the starting center if Garland can’t go. But there’s only so much hope that can be garnered from a practice squad call-up. Regardless, I’d expect the Cardinals to move Chandler Jones all over, including along the interior, to test the middle of our OL early and often. Based on our many injury concerns on offense, I’d expect some hiccups, but if our interior OL holds up, so too should our offense.
LARGELY BASELESS PREDICTIONS
Fred Warner has a breakout performance
Trent Williams has a monstrous pancake block in the run game that is replayed in slow motion, giving us the first glimpse of the kind of power he can bring to our offensive line
At least twice, the commentators remind us about how grateful we are that football is even being played during these trying times
George Kittle works Isaiah Simmons at least once, which leads to one of the commentators saying “Isaiah Simmons, welcome to the NFL” or “welcome to the NFL, rookie”—potentially during a replay leading into a commercial break
Joe Buck sucks
Go Niners 👍🏈
2020 Roster Preview: Defense
Despite departures, our DL should run deeper this year
![Can these two build on breakout seasons? [Getty Images]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1599163280570-3096EX2A7KVF0AP9S86K/EZ+Boza.jpg)
Can these two build on breakout seasons? [Getty Images]
Now for a look at the defense, which has—for the most part—been the better unit through training camp. This is far from surprising considering defenses usually gel faster, our D was the better unit for most of last year, and that side of the ball returns every single player from its two deep except DeFo and (kind of) Sheldon Day.
Injury Report :(
Thankfully, the majority of our injured defenders seem to be dealing with more “day-to-day” concerns that could be cleared up come game time. Here they are, separated into designations based on projected return dates.
Players Unable to Perform (PUP) List
These players will be inactive for at least the first six weeks of the season.
DT, Jullian Taylor: After a late-November ACL tear, Taylor’s recovery has been progressing faster than anticipated. There’s an outside chance he could suit up for week 1, but—considering the severity of the injury and our depth along the interior line—it’s more likely that he’s put on the PUP list to start the year. That way the Niners can play it safe, try out some young guys in the interim, and Taylor can provide a big-bodied reinforcement midway through the season.
Early season return
These players will be expected back early in the season, perhaps as soon as week 1
DE, Ronald Blair: Our second ACL tear along the D-line, Blair’s recovery has also been progressing faster than expected. He’s been running and doing agility work, and there’s a chance he could play week 1—although I would highly doubt it considering the risk vs. reward. That being said, the odds are he’ll stay off the PUP list, meaning we’ll get back our top off-the-bench edge rusher sometime during the first few games.
Expected back by week 1
CB, K’Waun Williams: Our starting nickel corner suffered a calf strain two weeks ago, but is expected to be back in a week or so. Jamar Taylor has been getting the reps inside in his stead, but if Williams can’t go week one, the duties may fall to someone else (as Taylor may not make the active roster).
DE, Nick Bosa: The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Bosa missed the last week of training camp with what started as a “maintenance day” due to leg soreness, but—after an MRI was taken—revealed a muscle strain that has him listed as “week-to-week.” He apparently has been moving around fine around the practice field, so—at the moment—there doesn’t seem to be anything concrete that should keep him from suiting up week one.
DE, Dee Ford: Ford, who had a clean-up surgery in the off-season and entered training camp fresher than he’d been since week 2 of last season, suffered a calf strain just before Bosa was injured. He seems to be in the same boat as Bosa, although the team is probably even more cautious with Ford due to his lengthy injury history. When talking earlier this week about injuries, Shanahan said he’d be “very surprised” if Bosa and Ford weren’t available week one.
Similar to Deebo, Aiyuk, and really anyone else whose week one status is up in the air, the practice reports next week should give us a clearer picture of who’s suiting up September 13th. Although there has been some good injury news on the offensive front, both Kittle and Ross Dwelley were back at practice yesterday and seem to be full go.
COVID/Reserve List
This list is reserved for players who must be isolated from their team because they either tested positive for COVID or have come in contact with someone who tested positive
LB, Fred Warner: Just Monday, Fred Warner was put on the COVID/Reserve List. Teams don’t report if the list assignment was the result of a positive test or simply coming into contact with someone who tested positive. If it’s the latter, he’s only out until he receives a negative test result; if it’s the former and Warner is asymptomatic, he could be back as soon as 5 days from now (pending two negative tests within a 24-hour time frame and team physician approval); if he’s symptomatic he’ll need to wait at least ten days from the outset of his symptoms to return to the team.
Hopefully, Warner isn’t sick, cause—you know—having COVID sucks and it’s not something you should wish on anyone—and that he’ll be back healthy and on the field in no time. While he’s gone, Kwon Alexander will likely fill his role as the Mike linebacker, which would slide Dre Greenlaw back to the starting Will position.
Rehab Warriors
As a testament to how many injuries we’ve suffered over the years, we have this category for both offense and defense. Each of these guys has struggled for the past 2+ years with injuries, and each of them has been getting rave reviews at practice for how much better and healthier they’ve looked.
By all accounts, Jason Verrett has looked like an entirely different player this year. He’s been making plays during practice, his speed is back to where it was during his All-Pro days, and he’s been rotating in with the first-team defense opposite Richard Sherman. While he may or may not win that starting position, he seems to have all but secured himself a roster spot and given us much-needed depth at the CB position.
We’ve yet to see what Kentavius Street can do in the NFL, as he took a “redshirt” year in 2018 after an ACL tear and his attempted return to the fold in 2019 was snuffed out after three games and only a handful of snaps. This year, Street has been making an impact, transferring his incredible weight room strength to the field and giving the team a bit more confidence in its interior DL rotation in a post-DeFo world. We’ll get to Street a bit more later, but until then, remember he’s the dude behind this absurd viral video.
Earl Thomas Watch?
Lol. Absolutely not.
I’ll admit, I really wanted the Niners to pursue Thomas last off-season (although not at the price tag he eventually signed for), but—as the old adage goes—one orgy with your brother during a pandemic that ends with your wife tracking you to a hotel via Snapchat and pointing a loaded gun at your head really goes a long way. Throw in that with a practice ejection, fines for being late to practice cause he “had to get his car washed,” and the quick exit from Baltimore even though the Ravens will have to take a hefty dead cap hit, and this is just not a tree we need to shake. Like at all. Besides, Jimmie Ward was arguably better than Thomas last year.
Position Breakdowns
DEFENSIVE END
Our top three edge defenders return in Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford. While each of the three has missed camp time due to injuries, expectations are high entering their second year together. Despite his calf injury, Ford seems to be in a better position to play more snaps this year than at any point in 2019. Bosa has struggled against Trent Williams in their one-on-one pass pro matchups, but he’s made plenty of splash plays throughout camp. There’s no reason to expect a sophomore slump.
Behind them, Ronald Blair is the best fourth edge rusher in the league, a guy who would start on most teams, and one who will provide a much-needed burst off the edge once he returns from injury. He was in the midst of a career-year and would have commanded free agent money if he hadn’t gotten hurt during a contract year. Once he returns, he’ll be hungry to make some money next off-season.
Up for Grabs: Second-line edge rusher. Blair’s locked up one of those spots once he returns, but what about until then? And who pairs with him when the team’s top three are off the field (or Armstead has slid inside)?
That’s where new signing Dion Jordan (theoretically) comes into play. Jordan was the the first and the highest-selected of the mid 2010’s wave of Oregon defensive linemen that the Niners have now all had on roster at one point or another. Coming out of college at 6-6 248 pounds and running a 4.60 forty, Jordan was taken #3 overall by the Dolphins and now, having bulked up to 270 pounds, presents a tantalizing option as a depth rusher with high upside and flashes (mainly on limited snaps in 2017 for the Seahawks) of living up to at least some fraction of his potential.
So what has limited him to this point? So many failed drug tests. In 2014, just his second year in the league, he was given a 6 game suspension for two failed tests of the NFL’s performance enhancing drug (PED) rules. In 2015, a diluted sample led to full year’s suspension. In 2017, he moved on to the Seahawks, and—after a short stint on the PUP list due to a knee injury—appeared in five games and amassed a 85.8 PFF rating. The following year he was less productive and had his season interrupted by—you guessed it—another failed drug test. Although in his defense, it was for Adderall, which he takes for his ADHD and had a medical waiver for; he just accidentally let the waiver lapse. He served the remainder of his 10 game suspension on the Raiders last year, where he was a decent performer, and now he’s here.
If healthy and clean, Jordan has the physical profile and has flashed the ability to provide a very nice spark off the bench. Think of a Dante Fowler-like impact (but for free instead of for a third and fifth round pick) with a smaller and more specific role and the upside to get a more efficient performer because of that. Jordan also give us another edge guy with some juice if Dee Ford’s injury issues limit him again this year. If we get the 2017 Dion Jordan this is obviously a major steal, but even if we get the 2018-19 Jordan this is a valuable acquisition. While him staying clean will always be a question, the drug tests were for PEDs, not recreational, and seeing as his last positive was a legitimate mistake for a prescription of Adderall, he actually hasn’t had those issues for what would now be 5 years.
That was the thought going into camp, but now? Jordan is likely on the roster bubble. Despite his physical tools, he hasn’t made a huge impression at camp—the majority of his splash plays coming with pure speed against second tackles. Turns out, it’s the Niners earlier and less heralded pickup who seems more likely to have solidified a rotational role.
Playing under Kris Kocurek in Detroit, Kerry Hyder was a rising star—accumulating 8 sacks and 19 QB hits in only two starts (and 16 total games played) in 2016–before an achilles rupture took out his entire 2017 season. He returned to the Lions as a rotational player in 2018 and spent last year in the Cowboys’ stacked defensive edge room. With an achilles tear often a two-year injury, perhaps he was still getting up to speed in 2018 then simply got buried in Dallas last year? The 29 year-old has only started 2 games in his career, but is an intriguing fit due to familiarity and past production. He also has the size and game to moonlight a bit on the inside on passing downs.
Despite an underwhelming camp, Jordan’s juice off the edge could make him hard to move on from considering Dee Ford’s injury history and the Niners’ struggles once they ran out of edge speed in the latter part of the season. But most beat reporters seem to agree, Jordan’s been outplayed by the other guys on this list and the tackles we’re about to discuss. Could Jordan, a former #3 overall pick, be able to get stashed on the practice squad with the COVID/veteran exemption? Perhaps. But if not, and we need edge rush help later in the season, Damontre Moore is still available... just sayin.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
The monster snap counts and Herculean durability of DeFo are now gone, and the Niners will look to replace him with an upside-heavy first-round pick and a defensive tackle rotation that could prove surprisingly deep.
First, the proven commodity. Nose tackle D.J. Jones had a breakout year in 2019, showcasing great quickness and activity on the interior despite his 305-pound frame. He was a terror against the run, but was less impactful against the pass—in part due to a lack of snaps to prove himself. That being said, he certainly flashed when given the chance...
This off-season, Jones has talked about trying to improve as a pass-rusher this year so that he can stay on the field more often. While it’s always nice to have more pass-rush capable players, how much we need him on passing downs may come down to the development of this year’s 14th overall pick.
First-round pick Javon Kinlaw has had an uneven first training camp. He’s huge, strong, and has a great motor, but there’s a lot of polish needed before he projects as a difference-maker—particularly against the pass. Throughout college, he always showed more promise and potential than polish, so that shouldn’t be particularly surprising, and when competing in pass-rush drills this camp against Laken Tomlinson—one of the stronger players on the team—Kinlaw has mostly been stone-walled. It’s a good matchup for Kinlaw, who will need to develop beyond his pure athleticism and power while matched up against a player of similar strength. While some are already pointing to Kinlaw as a disappointment, this is actually right where we should have expected him to be based on his tape. He is a high-ceiling player picked for his long-term projection. The thought going in was that if he was going to make a major impact as a rookie it would be later in the season as he improved his technique and savvy, and with one of the top DL coaches in the league behind him, that’s not out of the question. Regardless, Kinlaw should be expected to start in our base packages where he can use his strength to anchor against the run, but the Niners may need more rotational help in nickel packages if they’re looking for four pass rushers on the field. Some of that could come from Jones, but we have other options as well.
Jullian Taylor, our third defensive tackle over three bills (305 pounds), played well before going down to injury last year. When he’s back, he’s got great strength and is suited for battling on the interior.
Finally, finally, finally Solomon Thomas will be playing inside and only inside, and he’s responded by beefing up from 265 last season to 280+ this year in order to handle the extra blockers. Getting a bunch of first-team snaps while Armstead was nursing back tightness at the beginning of camp, Thomas has looked good at his more natural position, winning with quickness and anchoring with power while being active along the DL. While talk of a full-on breakout would be optimistic (although not impossible considering Armstead and Ward’s recent trajectories), the weight gain and Saleh’s commitment to keeping Thomas “inside at all costs” should lead to his best year as a pro.
Also on the rebound, Kentavius Street has been one of the bigger surprises of camp. While his quick exit from the 2019 season made it seem like his Niners career may have fizzled out before it even got going, it turns out he just needed more time to rehab. Now fully healthy, he’s been getting constant mentions for his explosive power.
It’s worth noting, Street was named SI’s biggest athletic freak leading up to the 2018 NFL Combine, beating out calf-god Saquon Barkley and Leighton Vander Esch for top honors with some absurd testing projections.
Street is expected to weigh in at 6'2" and around 285 pounds, and don’t be surprised if he’s clocked in the 4.5s in the 40-yard dash. At 281 pounds last year, he ran an electronically timed 4.58, vertical jumped 40 inches, benched 475 pounds and squatted 700. He’s also the most flexible guy in the NC State program according to strength coach Dantonio Burnette. “It’s almost like a big receiver,” says Yo Murphy, a former NFL wideout who has helped train Street for the combine over the past two months.
That would be one very, very big receiver.
While the vertical and forty-yard dash times sound like they’ve got rather strong hints of home-cooked stopwatch propaganda, Street is nevertheless a guy who’s impressive on the hoof and has incredible raw power and athleticism. He was expected to be a second round pick until—just three weeks before the draft—he blew out his knee during a workout with the Giants. Based on the timing of the injury, his “redshirt” year was a given. Now, it seems, he’s ready to deliver on the Niners’ multi-year investment.
Meanwhile, Kevin Givens, who flashed a ton of potential in last summer’s preseason and was promoted to last year’s active roster after Jullian Taylor was put on IR, has continued on his upward trend. At 6-1 285 pounds, he’s a one-gap shooter with nice explosiveness and burst. Unless they’re a high draft pick, it’s usually hard to give that guy meaningful snaps as a rookie due to their potential for getting washed out in the run game. But, in year two, Givens has continued to turn heads and provides some very intriguing potential considering fellow three-techs Jones and Thomas are UFAs after this season. While keeping Givens on the active roster would likely bump Dion Jordan from the first 53, it seems the likely move considering the former’s youth and potential.
Intrigue: While Kinlaw is a massive human, the Niners have clearly committed to a smaller, gap-shooter type elsewhere along their interior line. This makes sense given the aggressive principles of the Wide 9 front as well as its nose tackle alignment—at a “2i” instead of a “1-technique” so that he’s further from the center and thus harder to double team—but that doesn’t mean there’s no place for a big run-stuffer if he can move.
That’s where undrafted free agent Darrion Daniels comes into play. At 6’3 311 pounds (listed at 325 his final year of college), Daniels is built like a tank and has used his strength to toss around the Niners’ many undersized backup centers in pass pro drills. But he’s also shown enough quickness in camp to make people think he could have a D.J. Jones-like trajectory as an active interior run-stuffer. Also, he’s apparently a big anime fan?
While our logjam along the defensive line likely means Daniels will be on the practice squad this year, he—like Givens—could become building blocks for our interior DL in the coming years. With a COVID-lowered cap next year, you can’t have too many young guys on the practice squad who you’re prepping to step into future roles.
LINEBACKER
Our top three are set in stone. Fred Warner has arguably been the biggest star of training camp and looks poised to take another gigantic leap forward into truly elite linebacker territory. He’s routinely been making splash plays and leading the defense. If he can continue to develop his quick-trigger against the run and improve his open-field tackling, he could be in for a major breakout season. That is, if his COVID scare is minor.
Kwon Alexander was named the starter at Will very early in training camp. That means he’ll take over the full-time starting role and look to improve upon a hot start to a season that ended on a sour note with his playoff struggles. He too needs to work on improved open-field tackling, but the arrow is still pointing up.
That means Dre Greenlaw, one of our rookie gems from last year, will be a part-time starter as the Sam linebacker, coming off the field in nickel sets. While I was hoping for a full-on competition for the Will spot, Greenlaw at Sam makes a lot more sense than Kwon would. After all, Greenlaw was the second-most efficient tackler in the NFL last year, so it makes sense that one of our surest tacklers can man the most run-heavy position of our linebacker corps.
Combine Greenlaw’s strong tackling with the flashes he’s shown in coverage…
…and whether it’s later this year, next season, or further down the road, Greenlaw seems to have a bright future whenever he becomes a full-time starter for us again. Which is as good an excuse as any to show this clip again.
The fourth linebacker spot seems destined for Azeez Al-Shaair. The speedy second-year man from FAU is now a full year removed from the ACL tear that took away most of his final college season and led to him falling out of the draft. The Wide 9 requires speedy, aggressive linebacker play, and we probably have the fastest LB corps in the league. Retaining Al-Shaair, who will only get better after seeing a decent number of snaps last year, makes sense, both as a sub and as a potential 2021 starter in case the team moves on from Kwon after this year.
Up for Grabs: Final (5th) LB spot. Mark Nzeocha doesn’t get many snaps on defense but he’s been a stalwart for Richard Hightower’s special teams unit, which has seen some amount of “attrition” with former gunners Raheem Mostert and Emmanuel Moseley moving into major snaps on offense and defense, respectively. Continuity and Hightower’s affection towards him will surely help Nzeocha’s case. His competition, Joe Walker, is a new add this off-season who also plays on all the special teams units. While less experienced in the Niners system, he started 11 games at linebacker for the Cardinals last year, giving him a potential edge if they decide this position based more on who could play defense in a pinch rather than special teams prowess.
CORNERBACK
Richard Sherman enters the last year of his contract coming off an All-Pro selection and entrenched as our left boundary corner. Despite a disappointing finish to last year’s playoffs, he seems like the same old Sherman in training camp, picking off Jimmy G a handful of times in team sessions.
Once he returns from injury, perennially underrated K’Waun Williams will man the nickel spot again, where he’s one of the league’s best. With DJ Reed swooped up by the Seahawks (sad), Williams’ backup is TBD. Jamar Taylor has filled in well while K’Waun has been out, but he may not even make the active roster. That means the nickel spot could be some combination of safety Tarvarius Moore and whoever doesn’t start from the battle below.
Up for grabs: Starting right boundary corner. The Niners have opened the competition to start opposite Sherman to all three of our returning veteran corners. Emmanuel Moseley, the former UDFA who legit came out of nowhere to play a huge role in our defense, seems to have the upper hand coming out of camp. That makes the most sense given how he finished last year and the fact that he is young and is just now in his first training camp where he’s been getting major snaps outside.
Nipping at his heels is Jason Verrett, who has been getting rave reviews from players, coaches, and reporters alike. A consensus top 5 corner both of his first years in the league, multiple injuries have sapped Verrett’s 4.38 speed, but—according to GPS speed tracking technology in practice which has clocked him at 22.2 mph (as a rookie he hit 22.5 mph with the chargers)—that speed has finally returned. Seemingly, so has his confidence and burst. Even if he doesn’t secure a starting spot, having him as a strong backup option will be a nice boost to our secondary.
The third player competing for the starting position, but the one that reporters seem to agree is the least likely to win it, is Ahkello Witherspoon. He hasn’t looked bad in camp, but he hasn’t stood out in the way Moseley and Verrett have. Despite understandable frustrations with Witherspoon and his tremendous physical talent, if he’s more like last year than the year before, that means the Niners’ depth at cornerback is actually better than it was a year ago. There’s been some positing that Witherspoon—as the team’s fourth corner but someone who doesn’t play inside—could be moved before the roster cut down date to free up room for one of the names below, but at the moment, that is pure speculation.
Now... all five of the guys mentioned above are free agents after this season (although Moseley is an RFA, so if he plays well he’s coming back at a discount). So what about the future of the cornerback room? Are we setting ourselves up for a brutal 2021 filled with scrounging for replacement parts in a COVID cap? That’s where questions about Jamar Taylor and last year’s sixth-round development project Tim Harris come in.
At 6-2, 205 pounds, Harris certainly looks the part of a starting NFL corner, and he seems to have had a decent training camp. But not making a splash while each of the five names above him are starting or competing for starting positions means he is highly unlikely to make the active roster. That doesn’t mean he wont develop into a contributor in 2021—when our secondary is certain to see major turnover—but it does mean that—pending a surprise trade like the one mentioned above—we’ll have to stash Harris and Taylor on the practice squad this year.
It’s almost impossible to predict how much waiver wire and practice squad movement there will be in a year without a preseason to showcase players’ talents, but Taylor—who could only be retained with one of the COVID-year veteran practice squad exemption slots—may be difficult to stash considering he was a full-time starter as recently as 2017 and has played in 26 games over the past two years. Harris on the other hand—a second-year sixth-round pick who was on IR all of his rookie year and has yet to play an NFL snap—should (hopefully) be safe on the practice squad. That would allow him more time to develop within our system so that he could try for an active roster spot—and an important role—in 2021.
SAFETY
Jimmie Ward is back with a new contract. The hope is that his incredible string of bad injury luck was just that—bad luck—and that it’s all out of his system now that we’ve committed serious money to him. Yes. Let’s hope that.
Opposite him is Jaquiski Tartt, who has had as strong a training camp as anyone as he enters a contract year. We really missed Tartt when he was out last year, and it would be just so very chill if both of our safeties could—for the first time ever—stay healthy this year.
Behind Ward is third-year safety Tarvarius Moore, who played every snap at free safety for the first three games of 2019 before rarely seeing the field on defense the rest of the year. He was last spotted being the single most active player in the Super Bowl, playing only five defensive snaps, and in that time totaling two pass deflections, a pick, and a defensive PI that gave the Chiefs the ball on the two-yard line. With Ward re-signed for the long haul, it’ll be interesting to see what the team’s long-term plan is for Moore, who has two years left on his rookie deal.
Moore has a lot of physical talent and—after playing mostly corner as a rookie before shifting to safety after Ward went down in training camp of last year—may have just finished his first training camp entirely at safety. There’s room for growth. But where does he wind up?
Tartt is in the final year of his contract, but Moore—whose biggest weakness at safety last year seemed to be deep-field tackling angles—doesn’t seem to be the next man up at strong safety, even if the two positions are more interchangeable now than ever. Moore was seen playing some nickel corner late last season; perhaps they envision him as a semi-big nickel? Or maybe they’re looking at a few more three safety-type alignments to counteract the spread out dink-and-dunk air raids of the world? Whatever the plan is, the last thing we want to see is a hurried “let’s put him back at boundary corner in his contract year” move next year; that’s the kind of thing we’d do in years past and which, in part, greatly hindered Jimmie Ward’s development.
Up for grabs: Fourth safety position. Incumbent strong safety backup Marcell Harris returns after what was—despite a few pronounced coverage mishaps—a better starting run to end last year than he’s likely given credit for. While he’s still better at the more physical side of safety play, he hasn’t yet reached his ceiling and the team likes his physicality and energy.
The staff would likely prefer to keep Harris as the fourth safety but brought in former first-round pick and long-time Jags starter Johnathan Cyprien to offer some competition. Cyprien has delivered some nice plays in camp, at the same time when Harris was nursing an ankle injury, but—if Harris is healthy—I’d expect the Niners to go with him on their active 53. While Cyprien has nice experience in the Niners’ scheme (the Jags ran the Seattle 3), the Niners have shifted more and more away from that scheme in the past year, and would surely prefer if Harris—and his two remaining years on a rookie contract—continues as Tartt’s backup.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Robbie Gould will kick. Mitch Wishnowsky will punt. Kyle Nelson will long snap.
The only real competition will be in who returns kicks and punts. Athletically, someone like Mostert could be perfect for kicks (in fact, he averages 24.2 yards/return over his career), but he’s way too crucial for our offense to put back there. Considering kick returns are getting less and less important every year, I’m game to put back whoever is fast, won’t shit the bed, and doesn’t see major snaps on offense or defense back there.
As for punts, Trent Taylor seems like he’s leading the pack, but if Tavon Austin does indeed make the team, returning punts could be the perfect place for him. His averages the past three years (none over 5.8 yards/return on limited returns) haven’t been great, but he also has three career punt return TDs to his name.
That is all.
Have a good Labor Day everyone!
2020 Roster Preview: Offense
Training camp hype, caught on camera
![A sign of things to come? [Sports Illustrated]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1598939558692-7S2L5ZV4WVQXMTYLAPO2/aiyuk+training+camp.jpg)
A sign of things to come? [Sports Illustrated]
Training camp officially came to a close on Sunday, which means the Niners are moving into their regular season routine as they prep for the Cardinals in two(ish) weeks. With practices (mostly) closed to reporters from here on out and teams required to finalize their 53-man active rosters by Saturday, this seems like as good a time as any to look at the state of the team and examine the position and roster battles leading up to cut down day.
What’s that you say? This would make way more sense AFTER the roster is finalized? Well, I’m out of town this weekend so it’s now or never. Also I want the opportunity to point out random undrafted free agents as potential long-term sleepers just to see them get cut within a week.
This is gonna get long so the first installment is just about the offense. The second part will come later this week and will focus on the defense.
Injury Report :(
Per usual, we have a lengthy injury report (le sigh), and like last year, it seems like our offense will start the year bearing the brunt of the damage. The good news? There’s a lot of guys who could (should?) be returning very early in the season—some who could even be back (crossing fingers) by week one.
Injured Reserve
Will miss the entire season
WR, Jalen Hurd: Gotta feel for the kid. After rehabbing for an entire year to return from a stress fracture in his back and being brought back into training camp slowly and carefully by the medical staff, Hurd blew out his ACL during individual work on a side field. While Hurd’s intended “big slot” role could theoretically be absorbed by some combination of Jauan Jennings/Charlie Woerner/George Kittle, there is no one on this roster (or most rosters) who presents Hurd’s rare versatility and tantalizing size/speed combo.
Remember, Hurd was a three-year starter at running back (where he played ahead of Alvin Kamara), and totaled 2800 yards and 23 scores on the ground before flipping over to Baylor to play wide receiver. He did this all at 6-5 230 pounds. Similar to Jet McKinnon last year, Hurd’s role can’t fully be replaced—losing him means losing a piece of our offense. And while we still haven’t gotten to see exactly what that piece is, we’ve had just enough evidence to believe it could be worth the wait. Hopefully his rehab will go smoothly and—in 2021—we’ll finally get to see what Hurd can do.
Players Unable to Perform (PUP) List
A player on the PUP list will miss at least the first six games of the season. While PUP designations aren’t official until cutdown day, it seems almost guaranteed that the name below will start the season there.
Weston Richburg: Richburg was supposed to be back in time for training camp, but his recovery from a torn meniscus has gone slower than expected. If he lands on the PUP list, that would mean he’d have missed at least 10 games in his three years with the team—in addition to playing most of 2017 while hampered with injuries. Richburg was brought in because he’s a superior athlete, a smart player, and for all three of his years in New York he was graded (by PFF) as a top 3 pass-blocking center. While he played well to start last year, he’s yet to match those expectations, and with a contracted salary cap next year, lots of free agents coming up, and a possible out built into his hefty contract after this season, Richburg may need to have an All-Pro-type year to secure his roster spot moving forward.
Expected early season return
These guys are currently injured but are expected back within the first few weeks of the season—if not sooner.
WR, Deebo Samuel: Deebo’s recovery from a Jones fracture has been moving along well, and there’s a chance he’s ready for week 1. He’s been doing increasingly intense speed, agility, and conditioning work at practice—even catching stationary balls from some quarterbacks on Sunday—but he’ll still need to log the practice time and work his way back into football shape before he can see the field. With our receiver corps young and unproven—and Trent Taylor losing all of last season due to Jones fracture complications—the Niners are unlikely to rush Samuel back into the fold until he’s 100% healthy. There seems to be growing optimism that he will indeed be ready to open the season, but regardless, we should see him soon enough.
WR, Richie James: James suffered a broken wrist before training camp. The upper body injury has allowed him to condition and run more than Samuel and—last I heard—it seems like he’ll be healthy somewhere around the start of the season. However, it remains to be seen if he’ll still have a roster spot once he returns.
C, Ben Garland: That’s right, after a whole off-season talking about improving our interior offensive line, we already have our top TWO centers out with injuries (plus our would-be third center in Jake Brendel, who opted out of the season due to COVID concerns). Garland sprained his ankle last week during practice and John Lynch has said he may be out “a couple weeks.” This has led to some very annoying shuffling along the offensive line (which we’ll get to later), but regardless of who starts at center, having Garland back in the fold will be very very important.
OG, Ross Reynolds: A practice squad darling from last year, Reynolds had a major injury scare last week but was ultimately diagnosed with a bone bruise. He isn’t expected to miss much time.
FB, Kyle Juszczyk: Juice suffered a hamstring strain about a week ago and has been labeled “week-to-week” ever since. Due to the vague and rarely mentioned nature of his injury, this could turn out to be nothing or one of those injuries that stretches into the regular season. If it’s the latter, the Niners will need to get creative. Would-be sub Ross Dwelley has missed time and been labeled “day-to-day” over the past week—although he has apparently been progressing well—and the Niners would prefer not to throw undrafted rookie Josh Hokit into the fire right off the bat.
WR, Brandon Aiyuk: Staying on the topic of hamstring strains with “week-to-week” designations, Aiyuk came up gimpy on a deep route last Sunday and his availability for week one is currently in doubt. The word is that he won’t be sidelined for long (and he may indeed even play in the opener), but for a rookie in a shortened off-season, every snap before the games start is vitally important. Like Deebo, we should have a better idea of Aiyuk’s recovery timetable based on practice reports from the week leading up to opening kickoff.
Expected to play week 1
TE, George Kittle: Kittle’s missed a little time with “hamstring tightness” at the end of camp, but it doesn’t seem to be anything major. Hamstring issues are always complicated, so this could be either a precautionary move or—in a similar fashion to Juice—the downplaying of something that could leak into the regular season. For now, I’ll lean towards the former and stay bullish on Kittle’s chances of playing week one, but—as someone who tore their hamstring twice—I’d stress caution on any and all of our hamstring injuries.
Rehab Warriors
After that bucket of cold water, here’s the good news on the injury front. Each of these guys has struggled for the past 2+ years with injuries, and each of them has been getting rave reviews at practice for how much better and healthier they’ve looked.
Jet McKinnon has apparently been totally unguardable in 1-on-1 drills—an especially impressive feat considering we have one of the best coverage linebacker corps in the NFL. Many people have commented on how much healthier and explosive he looks this year compared to his ill-fated return in 2019, and he seems ready to carve out a role as a dangerous third down back (plus potentially more). A truly dangerous receiving back is something we’ve been looking for since Shanahan arrived, and it would be excellent to have one this year given our youth at receiver and the many question marks along our interior OL.
The only “true” slot receiver on the roster, Trent Taylor’s 2018 was hobbled by a back injury and his 2019 was lost after a preseason injury led to numerous complications and setbacks. By multiple accounts, Taylor is healthy and back to being the reliable underneath safety blanket that he was for Jimmy G in his rookie year. He also gives us an option on punt returns, a duty which he at least shared in both 2017 and 2018 and a position in which he seems like the front-runner due to his sure hands and the fact that the staff likely won’t want to overload Aiyuk if he’s getting major snaps on offense.
Finally, Jordan Reed—our newest addition—may have started training camp slowly as he was held out of most team activities for precautionary reasons, but he’s come on strong in the last few sessions. Shanahan has referred to Reed as the best route-running tight end he’s seen, and that’s shown up in 1-on-1’s against our safeties and during team sessions where he’s been getting open early and often.
This is probably as good a time as any to talk about the Reed pickup. Reed, when healthy, is one of the better receiving tight ends in the league. He’s very much a “move” tight end, who is most comfortable operating in the wing, off the LOS, or anywhere where he can use his superior athleticism and route running to win matchups in space. He is very versatile in the passing game and while he’ll never be a great run blocker, he’s willing and Shanahan has lauded his effort on the ground in the past.
For the Niners, he’ll be a specialty second tight end, coming in largely to create mismatches in the passing game. While rookie Charlie Woerner was brought in mostly for his blocking, Reed has absolutely been brought in for his receiving ability, and if he can stay on the field he would provide valuable rest for Kittle and make for some super intriguing double tight sets. Every extra man on the LOS creates another gap for our zone and stretch schemes and even more horizontal flow that we can exploit via play action passes. And while last year that second tight end was Toilolo or Celek, Reed presents a true second option at tight end who can be very dangerous in the open field.
That being said, it’s best to keep your expectations similar to 2019 Jason Verrett’s. In seven years in the NFL, Reed has only played in 65 games, has never played in more than 14 games during one year, and missed the entirety of last season after sustaining a concussion (the 7th documented concussion in his career) on a helmet-to-helmet hit in the preseason of 2019. After that hit, he was in the concussion protocol for six months before he was cleared to play. While he looks healthy now, the nature of his injury history means it’s best to temper expectations. But if he can play, he‘ll have an impact. Potentially, a very big one.
Position Breakdowns
QUARTERBACK
Jimmy G is your starter and may have a higher level of comfort both physically (a full year removed from his ACL tear and now without a knee brace) and mentally (a full year starting within Shanahan’s scheme) than we’ve seen before. While a few uneven practice performances have thrown some cold water on the idea of a second-year breakout, it’s worth wondering how much those issues will translate to the regular season when (a) it’s camp and (b) the glut of the issues have come with up to six starters missing on the offensive side of the ball. Only time—and the health of our offense—will tell.
Up for Grabs: Backup QB. Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard are still competing for the second spot. Given the drastic difference in on-field play when they’ve seen snaps, Mullens would have to be the front runner, but Shanahan has said they’re both neck-and-neck going into the season. The Niners are also expected to keep three quarterbacks on their active roster, meaning the backup designation won’t be something that determines a roster spot.
RUNNING BACK
While the Niners are unlikely to ditch a platoon-style system, the hope is that Raheem Mostert—a year removed from topping the league in many advanced metrics and with a newly bulked up physique and a freshly incentivized contract—gets the bulk of the carries. But it is worth noting, Mostert has zero career starts at running back.
That’s because last year the Niners preferred to start games with Tevin Coleman, under the idea that Coleman’s bigger size could soften up the defense for Mostert’s speedy counter punch. After a vintage Tevin Coleman fantasy cock-tease season (118 yards and four touchdowns one week against what was then one of the league’s top-rated defenses; 36 yards and no scores the next week against the doormat Cardinals), we’re hoping for a bit more consistency—even if it won’t necessarily be seen on the scoresheets.
As discussed above, Jet McKinnon has cemented his roster spot. He should be expected to fill the third down back role from the jump. Since the Niners prefer the “hot hand” method to running back touches, it would be great if he could sprinkle in some run game success as well. After all, while Matt Breida’s touches disappeared down the stretch, he did rush for 600+ yards on a whopping 5.1 ypc last year, and there were times where he looked like our lead back. The Niners system is better the more guys it has who can break big gains on the ground. McKinnon seems destined for a role in the passing game, but we’d only benefit from him carving out some touches in the run game as well.
Up for Grabs: Last rostered (4th) RB. Undrafted free agent JaMycal Hasty has shown speed, elusiveness, and playmaking ability in the passing game as he vies for the final roster spot against fan-favorite Jeff Wilson, who has a bigger, more bruising style, and is far from a slouch in the passing game.
Whoever doesn’t make it will certainly be put on the practice squad, but will they be able to survive there without getting swooped up by the competition?
Wilson is the better interior runner (we haven’t seen Hasty in full takedown tackling yet due to no preseason games), providing some battering ram insurance in case Coleman struggles in short-yardage situations and/or Mostert’s increased bulk doesn’t lead to more interior carries (although to his credit, Mostert did very well on said carries at a lighter weight last year). Hasty’s superior burst likely gives him more long-term upside (especially on an undrafted rookie contract), and his potential in the passing game could be nice insurance in case Jet McKinnon doesn’t make it through the year.
Ultimately this decision is more for next year than this one and while the training camp hype may make it difficult to stash Hasty on the practice squad (fellow undrafted free agent Salvon Ahmed was swooped up by the Dolphins the second the Niners let him go), the lack of preseason games could lead to less waiver wire movement from rookies once teams lock in their active 53. If I had to guess, Wilson’s experience coupled with his own ability on third downs (he caught three straight TD passes during the red zone drill of the last day of training camp) would give him the nod. But it’s a close race.
Intrigue: Undrafted free agent Josh Hokit could be Juice’s heir apparent if the Harvard product doesn’t re-sign with the Niners after the season. A football player and All-American wrestler in college, Hokit catches the ball well and has the athleticism and physicality to develop into the kind of dynamic lead blocker that a Shanahan offense needs to field an elite stretch game. But no one, even us, rosters two fullbacks, so Hokit seems destined for the practice squad.
WIDE RECEIVER
Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kendrick Bourne are all guaranteed roster spots. Deebo looked amazing in the off-season, but obviously we would have liked the guy to be healthy for his ever-important second-year training camp. How he returns from injury will be key. Bourne, now the elder statesman of the receiver corps, has been a consistent performer through team activities. His role at X is solidified. Meanwhile, Aiyuk has been the star of training camp, getting mentions from reporters and teammates seemingly every day for his quick-study of the playbook, his professional demeanor towards practices, and his regular impact on the field. If early reports are any indication, it seems like the exponential growth he showed towards the tail end of his college career has moved seamlessly into his rookie year, and—after he recovers from his dinged up hamstring—we should be seeing him a lot in 2020.
Trent Taylor seems destined for the fourth roster spot. He has the most specific skill set of the bunch (slot receiver) and—when healthy—has been a consistent performer for us and a nice underneath safety blanket for Jimmy G.
Much-maligned Dante Pettis seems to have locked in a roster spot as well. According to practice reports and coaches, he’s shown up with more mass, more physicality, and a renewed sense of focus to his craft. He’s mentioned often on camp reports and seems to have improved his ability to work against the physical coverage he’s struggled with in the past. This is by far his best training camp to date, and a third-year surge would be great news for a young receiving corps that is currently dinged up and may have a committee approach throughout the season.
Up for Grabs: Last rostered (6th) WR. In the running for (likely) the last wideout spot on the active roster (although depending on Aiyuk and Samuel’s status entering week 1, we could start with 7 wideouts) are two guys with skill sets and physical profiles that are nearly the exact opposite of one another.
After two years in Dallas spent mostly returning punts, former Rams top 10 pick Tavon Austin was brought in early in training camp. Drafted high due to his speed and elusiveness with the ball in his hand, Austin has underperformed—never really cementing himself as more than a gadget player—but if there’s a place you’d think he could potentially carve out a niche as a speedy dude who excels after the catch and can carry the ball on reverses and sweeps (a hefty 1,340 yards and 10TDs RUSHING on 6.8 YPC in his career), it could be the Niners. He’s also an accomplished punt returner, which helps his stock if Taylor doesn’t secure the position.
He’s going up against Jauan Jennings, the physical seventh-round pick out of Tennessee who has seemingly impressed with his route-running savvy so far in camp. He hasn’t garnered nearly the mentions of Pettis or Aiyuk, and he seems far from a polished product, but then again, he’s a seventh round rookie. And while it would seem to make sense that a rookie in the last round of a draft held during a pandemic-shortened off-season would be safe on the practice squad, that may not be the case for Jennings—as NFL teams love buyer’s remorse and poaching successful teams, even if those same teams JUST passed on Jennings months ago. Hurd’s injury would seem to present a need for a replacement big slot in Jennings and thus would help his chances of making the active roster. So would the fact that a seventh round rookie has considerably more cost control and potential than a journeyman veteran. But it seems like Austin has made a bigger splash thus far.
In an ideal world, neither of these guys is playing much this year, so I would expect the Niners to lean towards Jennings—giving him limited snaps at big slot and X in situational packages where they can use his size. But if they think they can stash him on the practice squad and/or want Austin’s gadget and return ability, it could go the other way.
TIGHT END
George Kittle reigns supreme, fresh off a contract extension that makes him the highest-paid tight end in the league but is also a very team-friendly, reasonable deal. The Niners have been very public about trying to decrease his workload and add talent behind him this off-season, and they’ve done just that with veteran Jordan Reed and sixth-round pick Charlie Woerner.
While Woerner was drafted mostly for his blocking skills, his athletic profile and former (high school) All-American status as a receiver has always made for some intriguing receiver potential. While I was bearish after the draft about how dangerous he could be in the passing game, it seems like his route-running and athleticism has been turning some heads during training camp. And while training camp chatter is sometimes just that, the Niners quickly reaffirmed the positive takes by—in a move reminiscent of Kittle/Vance McDonald in 2017—cutting last year’s practice squad darling Daniel Helm just two days into camp. I would be thrilled if I’ve mistakenly undersold Woerner’s receiver potential, both because it would mean we have a two-way player backing up Kittle without a lengthy history of injuries, and because it would allow me to make even more fun of Georgia’s horrendous offense.
But where does that leave last year’s backup TE/fullback Ross Dwelley? The San Diego product did an admirable job of filling in for both Kittle and Juice last year, registering two super clutch close out catches and (somehow) a two touchdown performance against the Cardinals. But after injuries have hampered his snaps in training camp, he seems like the odd man out in the tight end room. The Niners opened the season with four tight ends last year, but that was due to the injury status of Garrett Celek. This year, I’d expect Dwelley to start the season as one of our half-dozen practice squad veterans (a COVID season special), where he could be called up in case of injuries at tight end or fullback.
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
So far Trent Williams has been just as advertised and more, rarely losing a snap all training camp despite the strength of our defensive line and routinely coming out ahead in his matchups against Nick Bosa. He’s got great feet and seems rejuvenated by his year off from football (and from finally leaving the Racial Slurs), but his power has stood out both in the run and the passing game. And despite Ferrari IG videos—which he claims were recorded by his brother—Williams has gotten rave reviews for his locker room presence as well. As much of a legend as Joe Staley was for our franchise, Williams will be an upgrade at the left tackle position.
At right tackle, we’re just as secure with Mike McGlinchey, a top-tier run blocker who we’re all hoping can take a step forward as a pass protector in year three. There hasn’t been much talk about him good or bad this training camp. He’s an offensive lineman up against one of the best defensive lines in the league, so that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Shon Coleman’s COVID opt-out and uncertainties on the interior pulling bodies inside have pretty much handed Justin Skule the swing tackle position. He seems like our third tackle once again, but—in comparison to last year where he routinely got worked in training camp—multiple reports say he’s looked much better this time around.
Intrigue: Jaryd Jones-Smith. A 2018 undrafted free agent who spent time in training camp with both the Texans and the Dolphins, Jones-Smith—like Brunskill—moved over to the AAF, where he was eventually spotted by the Niners. He was signed last October and put on the practice squad and so far this camp, has been turning some heads. Part of that is probably because at 6-7 345 pounds he’s the biggest player on the roster, but his quickness and feet are good for a guy for his size, and he’s performed consistently well this year in training camp. What does that mean for this year? Hopefully nothing because our tackles stay healthy all year. But he’s a name to watch moving forward.
OFFENSIVE GUARD
Team ironman and potential future neurosurgeon Laken Tomlinson returns on the left side, where his incredible strength has made for some tough sledding for first-round pick Javon Kinlaw throughout camp. Tomlinson may not be spectacular, but he’s rock solid on the left. But on the other side...
What looked like a wide open competition for the starting right guard spot has run into quite a few roadblocks. Injuries have forced front-runner Daniel Brunskill inside to center, where he’s taken most of his training camp snaps (to some extent, by default). That’s left the majority of first-team snaps to journeyman Tom Compton. In the past two weeks, rookie Colton McKivitz has started splitting those snaps. While he has swing potential, the staff seems to be focusing him on the interior at the moment, and he’s been as quick a study as advertised, getting better as training camp has gone on. Another young guy who is slotted somewhere on the interior and has improved throughout training camp is Ross Reynolds, although his rough start to camp made a climb a bit easier to come by on his part. Just as he started to improve, he went down to injury, and while that injury doesn’t seem long-term, it’s probably best for Reynolds and the Niners if he gets more development time before seeing the field.
CENTER
Ben Garland should return in a matter of weeks, and when he does, he’ll be our starting center. Last year he was a beast in the run game and... okay as a pass protector. But despite his age (32 years old), Garland could still have some growth left in his game. After all, he’s only been a full-time offensive lineman since 2017, playing just as many snaps on offense (42) as he did on defense (42) during the Falcons’ Super Bowl run (he even recorded a safety of Russell Wilson in the playoffs that year).
Meanwhile, with our top two (or three) centers out, Daniel Brunskill has taken nearly all the first-team snaps since Garland went down; this despite still being in competition for the starting right guard position. Those snaps have gone... unevenly to say the least. While I am very much onboard the “Dan Brunskill 2021 starting center hope train,” he’s had some issues in one-on-one pass protection drills—which, to be fair, are an absolute bitch for an undersized interior lineman—and has had problems with snapping consistency—a bad shotgun snap even sailing over Jimmy G’s head for a safety during Friday’s practice.
Both to add depth and (potentially) to let Brunskill get more snaps at right guard where the team would like him to play, the Niners added Hroniss Grasu, a journeyman center with the name of an old-world grandmother wearing a shawl and selling magical charms in a fantasy movie. He’s seen progressively fewer snaps in each of his four years in the league (totaling one in garbage time all of last year), and while he’s settled in a bit after a rocky start to camp, he’s been about as good as you’d expect from a fifth-year center who is jobless come August.
Intrigue: But adding Grasu still meant Brunskill was running the first-team at center, so the Niners—just this weekend—brought in Dakoda Shepley, who is as intriguing of a prospect as one can bring in on the day before training camp ends.
In 2018, Shepley was the fifth overall pick(!)... of the Canadian Football League, joining the Saskatchewan Roughriders after being cut from the Jets’ practice squad. That season he was the CFL’s rookie of the year runner-up (since they’re Canadians perhaps they appreciate interior linemen more with these kind of awards) and was all set to play for the Roughriders again this year until the CFL canceled its season due to COVID concerns. After the cancelation, Shepley chose to opt out of his contract and test the NFL waters. This was August 25th. The very next day, Shepley was on a plane to the Bay Area for the tryout with the Niners. Three days later—on Saturday—he was officially signed. And one day later, he was operating the Niners’ second-team unit for their final practice of training camp, allowing Brunskill to see his most snaps at right guard since the beginning of training camp.
I have no idea how well our Canadian transplant played or if there’s any chance for him to make the active roster or the practice squad. In fact, he could be getting cut as I type this sentence. But I’m hoping we’ve found a gem here, and that’s only in part because Shepley also played Omega Red (of X-Men the Animated Series and Marvel vs. Capcom 2 fame) in Deadpool 2, and—despite his scene getting cut—seemed to have a deep and pure understanding of the character.
What’s that? We’re talking about our would-be sixth-string center’s acting career? That means it’s time for this post to end. Later this week, I’ll dive into defense.
Closing Time Pt II: Offense
Yup, this post is too long
This one was close on the scoreboards, but not really on the field… (Niners Noise)
I’ve said before that close games in the NFL are—in the long run—largely 50/50 affairs. The teams that are consistently strong every year are the teams that handily beat the most opponents because a larger winning margin means there’s less chance that a bad bounce, bad call, or single mental error can cost you the game. That’s why a team that has had an otherworldly record in close games one year, like the 2018 LA Rams who went 8-1 in such games (and hopefully the 2019 Seahawks, who went 11-3 in said games last year), is often a prime candidate for regression the following season.
Many believe that an elite quarterback playing at an MVP-ish level greatly changes close game win probability, and while that kind of play under center may provide a boost in spurts, the long-term stats tell a different story.
That’s six first-ballot Hall-of-Famers on six of the winningest teams of the past decade, but —other than the Belichick-Brady machine—none of them are tilting close games heavily in their favor. So what determines how well a team plays down the stretch? And how do we get on that evil Patriots level?
For these purposes, “closing a game” means the offense retains a fourth quarter lead, independent of how well or poorly the defense plays when they’re on the field, and there’s no great stat to measure that. The old world of thinking prioritized time of possession, but in recent years spread-heads and analytics nuts have said there’s no correlation between TOP and winning. That is, like most things, a half-truth.
Yes, while going out of your way to win time of possession above all else is pointless, running more plays, with better success, and converting more yards into first downs is clearly a recipe for winning games, and—particularly in the NFL, where no huddle attacks can only go so fast—that typically means you have the ball longer. When you have the ball for a long drive that usually means you’re getting first downs and either scoring or creating a field position advantage, and scoring (that thing that determines who wins the game) and field position (the greatest determinant towards opposing offensive success) are pretty important. Finally, regardless of your opinions on what the score needs to be and how much time needs to be left in the game before you start bleeding clock, I think we can all agree that if you’re up late and can ice a game by keeping possession, your goal is to do just that—keep possession and win the game. So if you’re a team that’s successful and finds itself up more often while late in games, you’re more likely to have a time of possession advantage.
Over the past three seasons, the top five teams in time of possession have made the playoffs each year—that’s 15-of-15 teams with 23-of-30 of the top ten in T.O.P. going to the post-season over that period. That would seem to imply time of possession at least has some positive correlational effect towards winning games, and—in the 2019 regular season—the Niners were fifth in the league in time of possession and second in the league during the fourth quarter. Theoretically, that means we don’t have a problem.
But if we were to isolate time of possession into the factors that largely make up the positive aspects of the stat (getting yards, getting first downs, etc.) while ignoring the more pointless elements (running the play clock down when you can’t ice the game, taking way too damn long to call plays, etc.) then we might get a clearer picture.
For instance, when you have the lead in the fourth quarter, there is no instance—except, perhaps when you are in an absolute blowout—that you aren’t trying to get yards and first downs. Yards give your defense better field position, which is the biggest factor towards opposing offensive success; first downs give you a new set of downs which churns clock and gives you extra chances to gain yards.
The Niners ranked 10th in offensive yards/drive (33.58 yards) while 5th in points/drive (2.47 points). The first figure is probably somewhat deflated based on the strong play of our defense, which often gave us better field position and capped the number of yards we could travel, while the second figure is likely inflated due to the exact same thing.
Then perhaps the best stat is Football Outsiders’ Drive Success Rate (DSR)? This stat, in which we ranked ninth, examines the percentage of offensive drives that either scored points or secured at least one first down. But it doesn’t separate by quarter, nor does it reward a team for securing four first downs in a drive versus one then punting the ball away. Thus, it too is flawed for these purposes.
Basically this was an incredibly roundabout way of saying that there is no great stat to determining offensive performance in close games, but we were pretty good at it in 2019. Long-term it’s not something we should necessarily be worried about, but it is something that we can improve. After all, the dream is to have close-game stats that resemble the Belichick-Brady outlier percentages as that’s what can vault a team from “perennial contender” to a legitimate dynasty.
So let’s look at some…
POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS
Jimmy Garoppolo
Just to get it out of the way, let’s start with the culprit that every angry ex-defensive player on ESPN trying to carve out a niche as a sound bite savant will point to first.
*1st-3rd QTR stats are averages per quarter
During the fourth quarter, Garoppolo’s stats across the board are actually better or equal to his averages across the first three quarters, including considerably fewer turnovers and a higher QB rating in the fourth. Now, the decreased YPA and slightly fewer first downs could mean there’s some stalling out come the fourth… but that’s a bit of a stretch all things considered. When you account for the fewer attempts, the first downs / attempts is almost exactly the same, while the YPA difference is likely in part due to the fact that the Niners predominantly held the lead in fourth quarters this year; more conservative play-calling with fewer deep shots would mean less big gain outliers, which would prevent Jimmy G from boosting his averages.
If that’s not enough to assuage your concerns, think of it this way. In 2019, Patrick Mahomes—the undisputed best QB in football—saw his QB rating drop 15 points and his completion percentage 8% during fourth quarters; Jimmy G’s YPA dip isn’t ideal, but it’s far from evidence that he can’t ball late in games.
Granted, if Jimmy plays better in the last five minutes of the Super Bowl do we win? Yes. Absolutely. But considering him the focal point of our fourth quarter struggles, or, I dunno, rating him the 20th best quarterback in the league, is—at best—short-sighted short-term memory nonsense and a claim that is nearly impossible to make independent of our other issues on offense (which we’ll talk about later).
In the past three years, the Niners are 4-20 without Jimmy G and 21-6 when he’s their starting quarterback. That includes a 9-4 career record in games decided by one score or less and a league-leading four 4th quarter comebacks last season. Garoppolo has a lot of areas where he can improve and improvement should be the expectation, but while he’s at times inconsistent or frustratingly careless with the ball, neither his stats nor his film should suggest that he’s a liability in close games.
Feast-or-Famine Run Game
By practically any measurement, our 2019 run game was a success. While our offensive rushing DVOA finished only 12th in the league, that’s a figure that was greatly dampened by our early season string of offensive injuries. Once Staley, McGlinchey, Juice, and Kittle returned and Mostert started carrying more of the load, we were unquestionably one of the best rushing attacks in the league. In fact, on an expected points added (EPA) per play basis, we were the best offense in football when both Juice and Kittle were on the field.
So why is our run game even being brought up here? I’ve mentioned before that our heavy reliance on zone and—more importantly—stretch run concepts means that our rushing attack is inherently more feast-or-famine than, say, a Harbaugh inside power scheme. We rely on big plays more than small consistent ones. Our stretch concepts and speedy backfield mean we’ve got a much better chance than most at ripping off gains of 10 or more yards, and the horizontal/lateral pressure that we put on defenses because of that opens up the deadly array of reverses, misdirections, and play action passes that we ravaged teams with all year. But it also means, that on a play-to-play basis, we might not be as consistent. That shows in our advanced OL statistics below.
Adjusted Line Yards is the overall ranking, which tries to gauge how a team—in a world where they all had the same league average running back—sets up their running game for success. The Niners’ 8th-best ranking makes sense.
The other two greens are explosive run rate stats, which gauge how often an offense creates gains of 5-10 yards (second-level) or 11+ yards (open field). As expected, our penchant for explosive runs puts us near the top of the league in both of those categories.
But then we get to Power Success, which measures the success of teams when they’re within two-yards from the goal line and/or require two-or-less yards to convert a third or fourth down. Here we’re barely better than average. And when it comes to Stuff Rate, which measures the percentage of runs where a running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage, we’re a below average performer.
Now is this simply the way it is? A give-and-take that we concede in order to be able to witness the sight of Matt Breida scampering at a league-best 22.05mph while he bolts past the Cleveland Browns to open Monday Night Football? Not necessarily. Most teams are zone-leaning now, and—while few run stretch as religiously as we do—there are ways to increase down-to-down consistency without throwing away our big-play ability. Which we’ll get to later.
We are Not a “Roll the Ball Out” Offense
In true West Coast offense-style, we are a very structured and methodical offense. Shanahan’s notoriously long play-calls include checks, sight adjustments, shifts, motion, and—particularly at the beginning of drives—secondary calls baked in if we see an unfavorable defensive front. It’s this complexity and attention to detail that makes our offense so dangerous at all times and so difficult to prepare for. But that also mean’s it’s not a “roll the ball out” offense. In fact, it’s probably the exact opposite of that.
What is a “roll the ball out” offense? It’s a scheme that does its best work out of the gun in the two minute drill, where the concepts and plays are minimized and route and technique adjustments reign supreme; where improvisation and scramble drills are king and defenses’ inability to make checks or substitutions means they’re playing more backyard ball in simple coverages; where dinking-and-dunking, going deep, and then hitting comebacks becomes a broken record. Basically, it’s the second half of every Seahawks passing play and the fourth quarter of all their games (when they are inherently behind and they take the reins off Russell Wilson). These offenses that thrive on improvisation, the vertical game, and passes outside the hashes are inherently more comfortable operating in no huddle situations—with fewer shifts, motions, and pre-snap adjustments. In some cases, it’s preferred because the QBs have less to process and can get in the flow of the game without all those complexities.
We are not that offense, and while that doesn’t mean we necessarily struggle in come-from-behind situations, it does mean that our five minute offense and our two minute offense look starkly different. Without a regular outside deep ball threat, teams can collapse down on us, press outside, and send the house, and—when we don’t have the time to run our full playbook—that means we have to drop the methodical flow of our gameplay, which often means the elimination of many of the shifts, motions, and other pre-snap adjustments that makes our attack so dangerous.
Improvisation will always play a role in football, but less of it isn’t necessarily a bad thing (see: the Patriots Dynasty, Bill Walsh’s entire philosophy). After all, Deshaun Watson has to improvise so much because the Texans can’t be troubled with making a coherent game plan in back-to-back weeks (or quarters). Aaron Rodgers, one of the best “roll the ball out” players of all time, often had to showcase his improvisational skills because Mike McCarthy spent the better part of a decade alternating between calling Da Bomb and Sub Zero. A play that’s called open is gonna succeed more often than a play that needs to go off script to get there, but without our whole bag of tricks, our offense can lack spontaneity at times. That can show in performance, where our YPA and big gains shrink late in games, as well as in play-calling, where Shanahan can lean conservative — potentially to offset the threat of exposing problem areas. Which we’ll get to in a second.
Potential Solutions/Improvements
Receiver Maturation:
This chart shows raw EPA (expected points added) lost due to drops last year. As you can see, Jimmy G was near the top of the league. It’s important to note that this is NOT a rate stat, so it is NOT an average of EPA lost per attempted pass. So guys like Dak Prescott or Carson Wentz, who both finished in the top 6 in attempts last season, were considerably less affected by drops on a per-pass basis than guys like Josh Allen or Garoppolo, who both had about 130 fewer attempts on the season.
This chart also assumes that the receiver who dropped the ball would have made zero yards after the catch, which, considering how our offense is built around creating chunk plays and how we’re arguably the top YAC team in the NFL, likely underrates the impact these drops had on Jimmy’s total EPA. So it’s safe to say, Jimmy G was actually impacted more by drops than any other QB in the league last year.
Obviously, we had a ton of issues in our receiver corps until the mid-season trade for Emmanuel Sanders. Now he’s gone and Deebo Samuel, our defacto No.1, is out until at least the beginning of the season with a Jones fracture in his foot. But there’s still a chance for improvement in this area.
If he returns healthy, I think Deebo is in for a HUGE season. We’ve also added Brandon Aiyuk, who is clearly less polished and accomplished than Sanders but brings a major athletic upside that we lacked last season. Kendrick Bourne and Dante Pettis (who may stikk carve out a role) are a year older and more developed, and we’ve functionally added three new wideouts to the team. Trent Taylor is your standard underneath slot receiver, consistent on third downs and short-to-intermediate gains. While Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings provide a size and physicality that we’ve lacked on the outside throughout the Shanahan tenure.
Injuries and rust could mean a slow start to the season, but this receiver corps has the potential to be better and much more versatile than last year’s by season’s end. Adding more guys who can get open late in games and catch the ball in tight coverage is clearly a benefit when it comes to closing out games.
Slot receivers and pass-catching backs
No knock on Emmo, but he wasn’t really a true slot receiver. He played a bunch of snaps there for us, but was more of an outside guy who could lineup anywhere rather than the dude you always wanted inside. Third downs are when traditional slot receivers like Taylor—who can get open quick underneath—and physical “big slots” like Hurd and Jennings—who can fight off and wall off physical man coverage—make their money. But it’s also when a dynamic pass-catching back really comes in handy.
Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... still shame on me. But fool me three times…? Jet McKinnon’s recovery has been much better this year, he’s looked great in higher intensity off-season workouts, and this season—much more than in the past two—it actually looks like he could see the field and contribute for the Niners. If that’s the case, his greatest contribution will be as a pass-catcher, and the time we’ll need him most is on third downs. I love Mostert, but last year our best matchup threat out of the backfield was our fullback. That will no longer be the case if McKinnon’s knee is up to speed.
Give it to Mostert?
Speaking of Mostert, when it comes to upping our short-yardage running game, could it be this simple? Well, no, but it’s still worth looking at this chart from David Lombardi at The Athletic:
Last year Mostert led all RBs in YPC, his DVOA also topped the NFL by a very wide margin, his elusiveness rating was 3rd best amongst RBs, and his success rate (the closest thing we have for a measure of how often he won’t get stuffed) was ninth in the league. While Tevin Coleman’s bigger size, better durability, and reputation would make it seem like he’s the Niners’ short-yardage back of choice, Mostert actually outperformed him, the rest of the Niners’ backfield, and the rest of the league in nearly all situations.
Now like all stats, these should be taken with a grain of salt. Despite adjusting for defense and trying to eliminate as many outside variables as possible, no stat can put these backs completely in a vacuum, and—to Coleman’s credit—he faced boxes of 8+ defenders on a league-leading 40.2% of his runs—nearly 8% more often than Mostert—so his efficiency was bound to take a hit. That being said, it does seem like Mostert—who just got his contract reworked and has been beefing up in the off-season to shoulder a greater load—should be getting a lion’s share of the carries, whether it’s to bleed the clock, convert short-yardage gains, or otherwise. And if he can repeat last year’s performance, that’ll be good news for us.
Get Better on the OL
To me, addressing the OL is clearly the most important step towards getting better at icing games. I think we may be grossly underestimating how poor our interior pass protection was by the end of the season and how much that affected both Garoppolo’s play and Shanahan’s play-calling.
It’s easy to say that Shanahan simply didn’t trust Garoppolo in the playoffs, and—to some extent—I’m sure there’s some validity to that. But if you’re getting interior pressure, you simply can’t call a lot of drop back passes, and with the run-game humming the way that it was down the stretch, our heavy reliance on the ground-and-pound almost made our downfield limitations even more prominent.
According to ESPN’s pass-block win rate, which measures how often a line holds its blocks for over 2.5 seconds, the Niners OL was 26th in the league last year. And while it would be easy to point to the 13 combined games where the Niners were missing a starting tackle (or two) for negatively influencing that stat, our interior OL was the biggest problem.
While Pro Football Focus is far from perfect, it is still the only outfit that rates every single snap of every single offensive lineman and since I don’t hate myself nearly enough to do that, that means it’s still the best reference we have for determining individual OL effectiveness. According to PFF, out of 65 qualifying guards, LG Laken Tomlinson finished 38th in the league in pass block efficiency while Person finished 53rd. I think Tomlinson is actually a tad underrated by that figure, but Person’s grade… yeah, not great.
Despite a small sample size, I’m super bullish on Daniel Brunskill. He stepped in mid-game at tackle against one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league and didn’t miss a beat, started games at left and right tackle and during that—albeit short—run, ranked 18th in run-blocking and 4th in pass blocking efficiency in the entire NFL... amongst tackles (!). While his numbers at guard were actually way worse—largely due to nightmare matchup against Aaron Donald in his first ever start on the interior—he played really well against Seattle and should be considered the front-runner to replace Person as the starter.
Issues to start the game against the Rams and struggles down the stretch against the Falcons were largely the result of major lapses along the interior line, and I don’t have to go into how often Chris Jones had this kind of impact in the Super Bowl. We’ve already added Trent Williams, who—if he’s the same player he was in Washington—will be a major addition, particularly in the run game, but shoring up the right guard position and keeping Richburg healthy at center could mean massive strides in terms of pass protection and our short-yardage run game. That could mean gains in the consistency of our short-yardage runs, as well as the confidence required to dial up more drop back passes, vertical shots, and throws outside the numbers.
Increased Aggressiveness (especially early in games)
There were times last year where it seemed like we relied too heavily on the idea that our defense would smother the opposition, punting balls, kicking field goals, and playing conservative in the first three quarters when we could have been going for knockout blows. While I’d argue the analytics push in football is a bit like the constant commentator references to RPOs (importance overexaggerated and mentioned way too often), I do tend to agree with the overall concepts of its fourth down decision-making charts: in essence, go for it more often. While I would NEVER want to go full baseball manager and be making fourth down decisions based on one or two percentage points in a binder, I think in general, football coaches are too conservative when it comes to fourth-and-short inside enemy territory. As stated above, the best way to beat teams in the NFL is to put them away before the fourth quarter, and if there was an area where the Niners struggled at times last year, it was in letting teams hang around after vastly outplaying them in the first three quarters. Maybe that’s a fourth quarter problem, or maybe we ought to approach the first three a bit differently.
For example, let’s look at two pillars of (well-executed) aggressiveness: The 2019 Ravens had a good defense, an incredible run game, and they regularly went for it on fourth down. Because while analytic-types LOVE to knock the run-game, short yardage conversions are still the one area where the run game and full backs and all that stuff that “modern day” offensive minds hate are proven to be super effective. The Ravens’ offense was insanely efficient because their run game kept them ahead of the sticks, put them in a position where fourth downs were short and attainable (thus maximizing DSR), got people wide open in their passing attack (thus inflating passing efficiency), and minimized defensive possessions. And when they didn’t convert those fourth downs, they still gave their defense good field position, which—as stated above—is the greatest indicator of offensive success. Where they expectedly fell flat in the playoffs? They had no short-to-intermediate passing game. Running the ball and throwing deep off play action can only work if you can run the ball; if someone loads up against the run then both strengths are nullified. Offenses that are only built off one thing always run into a defense that stops them, and that’s what happened against the Titans last year.
So for a longer track record that doesn’t require having someone with the athleticism and moves of a punt returner at QB, let’s look at the Patriots (although not last year’s Patriots, lol). New England’s offense is built on a shotgun-heavy short-to-intermediate passing game and a heavy-set gap-running scheme; they are literally built to convert 3rd-and-5’s and 4th-and-1’s. It’s no wonder Belichick has always been at the forefront of fourth down aggressiveness. Because like the Ravens, he understands the importance of maximizing possessions.
The good news? It’s not hard to see how the Niners’ offense can be just as good at converting third and fourth downs as the two teams above. Possibly even more so. We have a strong run game and nasty play action attack. Jimmy G is at his best with short-to-intermediate passes and all our weapons are built for YAC. We are quickly assembling a roster full of dudes who block, run, catch, and present massive mismatches all over the field. What linebackers can cover Juice and Kittle? What cornerbacks and safeties can tackle Deebo (and hopefully Aiyuk) in the open field? What the hell do you do with Hurd/Jennings lining up in the slot on third-and-short? If we shore up our short yardage run game and keep Jimmy G as clean as Brady was in his time in New England, there’s no reason to think we can’t be just as effective closing out games… if these improvements come with a boost in aggressiveness.
Here’s Football Outsiders’ Aggressiveness Index scores for last year, which include “Aggressiveness Index,” a measure that compares each coach’s chance of going for it on fourth down versus the league average, and “go for it rate,” which is simply the % of fourth downs the coach attempted to convert.
For reference, the league average AI figure was 1.46 this year
Unsurprisingly, John Harbaugh set a new record for AI and go for it rate in 2019, while Shanahan—ranked 28th this year and 31st last year—was near the bottom of the league in AI. And yes, while his go for it rate was 6th-highest in the NFL, he also had by far the most fourth-and-short situations where the average coach (over time, not even in today’s more aggressive NFL) would have gone for it.
Is being more aggressive always better? Obviously not, and it’s worth noting that Belichick (17th) actually landed near middle of the pack in 2019 (in part likely due to the fact that his offense sucked and his defense was amazing), Andy Reid was only one spot ahead of Shanahan at 27th, and the mean average rank of every playoff qualifier was 16.08, or exactly the middle of the pack in terms of aggressiveness. Going for it more on fourth down won’t overcome issues on first through third, nor will it assure success in the fourth quarter, but—as stated at length above—putting teams out of their misery early is the best way to sustain success in the NFL, and if a lean more aggressive in the first three quarters could mean fewer close games, that’s clearly a step we should take.
Last year, I can understand the Niners’ conservative lean. We had a quarterback coming off an ACL tear, in his first full year as an NFL starter, who is prone to turnovers at seemingly random times. We had a receiver corps that—other than Emmo—didn’t have a single player operating outside of their rookie contract (this year, Bourne is the only player not on his rookie deal and he’s on an RFA so it’s pretty much the same thing). We had an offensive line that excelled in the run game but had a tendency to give up interior pressure—especially on clear passing downs—that could get in the face of your pocket passing quarterback (which is one of the last things you wanna see coming off a knee injury). And we had a defense that was—for certain parts of the season—absolutely unreal.
But this year? With an improved offensive line? With Jimmy G more seasoned and confident? With Mostert (hopefully) taking a greater share of the team’s carries? This year, a more aggressive lean should be expected, in no small part because it should be much more feasible. That may help us close out games in the fourth quarter, but—perhaps more importantly—could help us finish teams off before it even gets to that point.