Wk1 Preview: vs. Cardinals
![Budda Baker enjoying The Kittle Experience [Matt Kartozian]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1599694160980-AVXJE1T33NQ1NTUTC4Y6/usa_today_13599102.0.jpg)
Budda Baker enjoying The Kittle Experience [Matt Kartozian]
vs. Arizona Cardinals
Date: Sunday, 9/13
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
Channel: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally
Despite placing last in the NFC West a year ago, the Cardinals have ridden a strong finish, the entirely-due-to-luck acquisition of one of the top wideouts in the league (eat a dick Bill O’Brien), and bubbling nationwide hype behind sophomore Kyler Murray to become a popular dark horse playoff candidate in year two of the Kliff Kingsbury era. It’s not an outrageous claim, but... we’ll get the first glimpse as to how realistic it is comes Sunday.
Injury Report
As of Wednesday…
49ers Offense: Mostly good news on the injury front here. Juice (hamstring) was back at practice on Monday, so he should be good to go… Ben Garland (ankle) is back after missing the latter half of training camp, but he was limited. His status for Sunday is up in the air, but if he can go that would be HUGE... Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk remained out of practice as of Wednesday. They’re both still considered maybes for week one. While I’d love to see them, I will once again stress not bringing anyone back early from a hamstring injury if they’re not ready.
49ers Defense: Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have both dressed for practice all week. They’ll play... Fred Warner was on the COVID/Reserve list to start the week, but—as of Wednesday—was re-activated. He’s good to go as well... Jason Verrett, who I just praised for staying healthy, is out with a hamstring strain, but it’s minor. This means Ahkello Witherspoon should be our third corner… Ronald Blair was a surprise addition to the PUP list last weekend, meaning he won’t be playing in this game or at least the next five. That will hurt our immediate defensive end depth, and could lead to a game day practice squad promotion for Dion Jordan, or some edge snaps for Kentavius Street or (please no, just keep him inside) Solomon Thomas.
Cardinals: Would-be outside starting corner Robert Alford will miss the season, meaning long-time Bengal import Dre Kirkpatrick will likely start outside... Rookie tackle Josh Jones didn’t participate in practice on Wednesday. As a developmental rookie, I would assume he wouldn’t be starting ready anyways, but apparently he’s been competing for first-team reps… Maxx Williams was a limited participant, as were a few other guys for non-injury related purposes (aka veteran days).
ON DEFENSE
Kliff Kingsbury scraped together a hodgepodge of parts into what was the the 13th-best offense in terms of DVOA in 2019. Now, in Kyler Murray’s second year, with the addition of one of the top wideouts in the game, with the theoretical maturation of at least one of the three wideouts they drafted in the first four rounds of last year’s draft, and with the team more comfortable in the offensive scheme, the going belief is that this unit is prepared to take the next step.
That will depend mostly on how well Kliff develops his players, if the offensive line—which gained no immediate contributors in the off-season—has improved, and how well Kliff continues to adapt to a league that now has a full season of tape on his offense. Many so-called “offensive gurus” have started hot in the NFL, but it’s how they sustain that matters. Just two years ago Matt Nagy was one of the top offensive minds in football. A few seasons before that, Chip Kelly’s innovative shotgun spread attack was revolutionizing professional football. A year ago to date the Browns were a Vegas favorite to win the Super Bowl based on the coaching ability and explosive offense of Freddie Kitchens. Teams adapt. Sample size is important.
The task that the Cardinals—and, in a different way, the Ravens—now face is that their collegiate-rooted offense is now on tape, and NFL coaches have had an entire off-season to study film, get tips and pointers from the college coaches who have seen these offenses for years, and scheme up new ways to counteract these looks. Oddly enough, COVID may be something that actually helps both of these offenses, as it’s unlikely NFL coaches were able to take as many (if any) of the types of college visits that they would have otherwise made this off-season.
Scheme
The Cardinals run an Air Raid offense, which means no-huddle hurry-up sets, more shotgun snaps than anyone in the league (other than the Ravens’ gun/pistol option attack), and an offensive strategy that spreads the field horizontally then exploits the widened alignments and space of the defense.
Despite the scheme name, the Cardinals were actually at their best running the ball in 2019. According to Football Outsiders, they were the second-most efficient rushing attack (to the Ravens) in the NFL, in no small part due to Kyler Murray’s 544 yards and four scores on the ground and the fact that their wide alignments and passing lean meant they ran into the second fewest eight+ man boxes in the league. Also in contrast to Kingsbury’s college history—and his ill-fated attempt to start the season with lots of 11 and 10 personnel sets—the Cardinals did their best work in 12 personnel, when they committed to extra gaps behind Charles Clay and their elite run-blocking tight end Maxx “one x short of a Vin Diesel movie, two short of a porn star, and three short of Vin Diesel playing a porn star who stresses the importance of family and also the crisp light taste of a Corona pale lager” Williams. In the second year of his system and with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Kliff likely wants to do a bit more in 10 and 11 this year, but he has shown a schematic flexibility when necessary.
The Cardinals are at their best running inside, where their wide splits and multiple gaps give more room for the elusive Kenyan Drake to make defenders miss and gobble up yardage. At times this seemed to be doubly effective against us, as our commitment to undersized interior linemen and wide alignments seemingly played into their strategy.
Last year the Cardinals were one of the most successful teams when it came to running the ball against our vaunted defense, averaging 144 yards on the ground at a worrisome 6.1 yards per clip. They did this mostly with shotgun power runs that did the brunt of their damage by using double teams to wash out an interior lineman and/or relying on the awkward/delayed timing of their shotgun handoffs to mess up the reaction time and run fits of our linebackers. This led to some larger-than-ideal holes and a few missed tackles, which in turn led to big gains on the ground. In order to prevent history from repeating itself, we’ll need Javon Kinlaw, DJ Jones (who missed one of the Cardinals games last year), and the rest of our interior linemen to hold the line against double teams, our linebackers to trigger downhill faster for proper run fits, and everyone to tackle better in the open field.
Despite their efficiency on the ground, this is a team that wants to pass. Last year, the Cardinals threw on early downs more often than all but three other teams, a tactic that—similar to the tempo of the no-huddle hurry-up offense itself—aims to attack the more vanilla coverages that are often seen on first and second downs so that third downs become easier to convert.
Through the air, the Cardinals are all about getting the ball out quickly, threatening teams horizontally with WR screens, shallow crossers such as mesh, and a litany of short game concepts like snap, stick, spot, that stress tacklers’ angles and form in the open field. When teams get complacent in the short game they’ll threaten over the top with a beautifully thrown deep ball, working the one-on-one matchups created by alignment and in general “throwing to grass” (aka, the open field). No doubt, those deep shots become more dangerous with Hopkins, a physical jump ball beast, now in the fold (keep eating that dick Bill O’Brien). Nuk should also help their red zone offense, which was near the bottom of the league and relied almost entirely on Larry Fitzgerald on the goal line (10 of the team’s 14 targets inside the 5-yard line).
Kingsbury’s air raid is a perfect schematic fit for Kyler’s quick read-and-release skills, his ability to field and throw the ball quickly from different launch points (like a shortstop in baseball), and his tremendous accuracy and touch on deep balls. It also widens out the defense so that Murray can use his legs to buy time and more easily find passing or running lanes despite his 5-9 frame. But there are a few issues in the passing game that have largely been masked by the offense’s high completion percentages and passing game volume. There are some empty calories here that should be unpacked.
Murray had the second-most RPO plays among all QBs last year (unsurprisingly, the Ravens were first). He also threw more wide receiver screens than anyone else in football. In fact, on first downs—when the Cardinals threw all the time—41% of Murray’s completions came at or behind the line of scrimmage. There’s nothing wrong with that, especially since the Cardinals have a very effective screen game, but it also shouldn’t be surprising that—when it comes to average air yards per pass—Murray ranked 32nd in the league. Granted, that was higher than Jimmy G, but when you account for their widely disparate situational efficiency metrics, you can see where this offense fizzled out.
**I was supposed to have a chart for this, but Pro-Football-Reference decided to erase its Advanced Splits today and I didn’t record the data beforehand, so alas, I’ll try to explain it**
While Jimmy G’s efficiency, YPA, and completion percentage stayed pretty stable on down and distance—with a slight dip for third-and-7+ that is expected given its difficulty—Murray’s efficiency decreased exponentially the later the down and the distance. Even if you isolated for air travel, Murray’s efficiency plummeted despite the great touch he throws on deep balls.
Basically, despite being an Air Raid team, when the Cardinals really had to drop back and throw intermediate or deep passes in crunch time, their efficiency plummeted across the board. My guess is that’s due to a combination of three factors: (1) intermediate passing is way more complicated than the pre-snap-heavy, single-read nature of quick game and RPOs; (2) coverages are more complex on third and fourth downs; and (3) there’s no way around the fact that drop back passing means your offensive line actually has to block. In a sense, the Cardinals last year minimized reads for their rookie QB and minimized blocking responsibility for an offensive line that—in conjunction with Murray’s tendency to hold the ball too long—allowed a league-high 48 sacks in 2019 (7 to us in two meetings). That’s smart game planning, but it can only get you so far.
While the Cardinals’ 8th-best pressure rate allowed as a unit would imply that this OL could be better than I’m giving them credit, I think that statistic has been boosted by screens and quick game. It’s more a product of scheme than talent. Thus, our goal as a defense should be to force this team to get their yards through true drop back passing. If our front seven can eliminate the cheap yardage off of runs and our DL and secondary can stack and stuff screens and minimize YAC in the quick game, then the matchup becomes less about downfield pursuit angles and tackling in the open field and more about a second-year quarterback reading a full defense while a “possibly decent” offensive line goes up against the best defensive line in football.
ONE PLAY
Taking away the short game means slowing up the QB-to-WR connection, which can be accomplished by (a) jarring receivers off their routes to mess up their timing with the quarterback or (b) confusing the quarterback’s reads to mess up his timing with the receivers.
Unless the mysterious “wrinkles” that new DB coach Tony Oden has added to our arsenal include more man coverage or rolled up/squat corners, our defense is mostly a zone-heavy scheme that oscillates between Cover 3, Cover 4, and a few split-field looks. That means the majority of our coverage disguises are on the back-end—clouding the vertical game to bide time for our pass rush—rather than the front-end. That means, if we’re trying to trap Murray into a bad read so that he becomes gun shy in the passing game, it will likely be up to our linebackers underneath. Like in the play below:
Here, the Niners show a two-high Cover 4 look but are actually in…
Cover 3 Buzz, where the corners and Jimmie Ward take deep thirds while Tartt and Warner sit underneath, taking away the hook zones.
Warner’s inside alignment is key. By lining up in the box and near the LOS, the Niners prevent the dreaded “auto-check to a QB draw” that happens all the time with athletic quarterbacks when the box vacates. In addition to being a QB run deterrent, Warner’s alignment also acts as the bait...
K’Waun Williams is the read defender here. Seeing the numbers advantage and the apparent space available, Murray knows that if K’Waun follows the No.2 WR on the quick out, he can hit the stick underneath. And If K’Waun sits on the stick, Murray can hit the out. Given the fact that the safety is 15 yards off, the latter is already less likely, and Murray is thinking stick route pre-snap.
Warner knows his responsibility is to take away any interior underneath routes here, but since he sees the receivers’ alignment he’s aware that he can take his drop just by mirroring Murray’s eyes and body.
At this point, Murray is past the point of no return. Warner’s path has kept him out of Murray’s periphery, Murray knows he needs to get this ball out early and on time for the concept to work, and—if Warner could just hold onto the ball—this would be the perfect example of the kind of bait plays we need to rattle Murray’s confidence and throw off the timing of the Cardinals’ quick game.
Here it is at normal speed—with an endzone angle where you can really see Warner widen while keeping his eyes locked on Murray’s—posted via the burner account that I use only for posting videos and submitting to competitions that require a Twitter account.
ON OFFENSE
More so than anyone else last year, Vance Joseph’s Cardinals defense really dared us to pass. They loaded the box with eight or nine bodies, widened their linebackers to the edges to stop us from flanking them in the run game, and played man coverage across the board. They forced us to throw the ball.
So throw the ball we did.
In two games against the Cardinals, Jimmy G threw for 741 yards and 8 touchdowns with a 75% completion percentage while leading the team to 853 yards of total offense. This was despite missing Juice, McGlinchey, Kittle for one game, Staley for both, and before Mostert took over the primary running back role. Needless to say, the Cardinals knew change was needed.
SCHEME
The Cardinals’ defense is a 3-4 scheme that is hyper aggressive, leaning heavily on man coverage across the board while blitzing the third-most in the NFL. This led to a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense but the single worst passing defense in the league, in part because—despite their penchant for blitzing—they were one of the league’s worst teams in terms of blitzing efficiency. Hoping to improve on that end, the Cardinals went out and made a series of additions to their defense.
In comes Jordan Phillips along their DL, a 6-6, 341-pound behemoth from Buffalo who had largely underperformed until breaking out in a contract year with 9.5 sacks in 2019. While a contract year burst plus an unsustainable sacks-to-QB hits ratio both overstate his true impact and imply upcoming regression, he’s probably still better than whoever he replaced. The reliably above-average Devon Kennard, via the Lions, will start opposite Chandler Jones in an attempt to bolster the pass rush, even though Kennard is actually a better run defender than rusher. Despite the constantly changing schemes and personnel in Arizona, Jones has been an edge-rusher stalwart for years, logging 11+ sacks in six of his last seven campaigns. This includes 19 last year—a half-sack off the NFL lead. He is without a doubt their most dangerous defensive player.
While the additions to the front seven may lead the Cardinals to blitz a bit less than last season, their lean towards man coverage is likely to stick. That’s partly because they have Patrick Peterson, who they expect to rebound from a down year in 2019, and partly because man coverage could ease first-round pick Isaiah Simmons’ transition to the NFL. An absolute athletic freak who made plays all over the field in college, some people had Simmons rated as a top-three prospect, but he slipped to the Cardinals at 8 because his greatest strength—being a position-less uber athlete—made him difficult to project. He played everywhere from corner to safety to linebacker to defensive end in college, a moveable all-purpose chess piece who was big enough and athletic enough to make plays from each position. But in order to optimize his ability in the NFL, the team who drafts him will likely need to do something similar. While his role will be under wraps until the games begin, my guess is that he’s a space linebacker/giant slot who starts out as a linebacker but extends over slots as an all-purpose body who they can throw at their problems. The chief of those problems being George Kittle.
This Cardinals defense was near the bottom of the league at guarding both tight ends and running backs last year and consider me skeptical that a rookie in his NFL debut is going to shut down the best tight end in football. But with potentially two of our three would-be starting wideouts out with injury, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cardinals once again load the box and dare us to pass, hoping they can hold up in coverage long enough to get home against our potentially suspect interior. If that’s the case, the employment of heavy sets with Kittle, Juice (if he plays), and Jordan Reed could be necessary both to establish some kind of run game and to create mismatches with our backs and tight ends in the passing game. Given the circumstances, don’t be surprised if Jet McKinnon’s much-awaited debut is an active one in the passing game. Remember, this is the team that Ross Dwelley had two scores against and that Kittle scorched despite having a broken bone in his ankle during the clip above. The Cardinals will certainly try to take away out matchup bigs with some combination of Simmons and box/slot safety Budda Baker. Despite being the highest-paid safety in the league, leading the NFL in tackles, and being an absolute stud in the run game, Baker is still a guy with zero picks and only 14 pass deflections in three years in the league. He doesn’t move the needle much in pass coverage. Having Samuel/Aiyuk for game time would be awesome, but Shanahan should be able to manufacture some open receivers regardless given how many big, fast bodies we currently employ.
Due to Ben Garland’s precarious injury status, I am genuinely worried about a Daniel Brunskill at center and Tom Compton at right guard interior if it comes to that (or Colton McKivitz at right guard if he’s really unseated the veteran already). Neither have gotten rave reviews during the pass-pro sections of practice, but then again, interior linemen get shafted in those drills and the hope is that—like last year—that’s more a testament to our defensive line dominance than issues along the offensive line. That might not even be the Garland-less fallback plan considering Brunskill has seen snaps and seems more comfortable at right guard. Practice squad center Hroniss Grasu will likely be a game day addition to the active roster. Maybe he’s the starting center if Garland can’t go. But there’s only so much hope that can be garnered from a practice squad call-up. Regardless, I’d expect the Cardinals to move Chandler Jones all over, including along the interior, to test the middle of our OL early and often. Based on our many injury concerns on offense, I’d expect some hiccups, but if our interior OL holds up, so too should our offense.
LARGELY BASELESS PREDICTIONS
Fred Warner has a breakout performance
Trent Williams has a monstrous pancake block in the run game that is replayed in slow motion, giving us the first glimpse of the kind of power he can bring to our offensive line
At least twice, the commentators remind us about how grateful we are that football is even being played during these trying times
George Kittle works Isaiah Simmons at least once, which leads to one of the commentators saying “Isaiah Simmons, welcome to the NFL” or “welcome to the NFL, rookie”—potentially during a replay leading into a commercial break
Joe Buck sucks
Go Niners 👍🏈