GIGANTIC Wide Receiver Breakdown

This photo is 100% lifted from [SB Nation]. My apologies. I don’t have Photoshop skills

Well this got out of hand in a hurry…

The Niners, whose only position coaches at the combine this year were for WR and OL, seem poised to select a wide receiver at some point during this draft. The question is when.

I’ve already gone over the top three wideouts on the board, but there are a handful of signs (to be discussed later) that point to the Niners maybe not going that way at 13. Luckily, if we trade down, pick another position, or wait until 31 or later to go wideout, there are plenty of options on the board.

Here are breakdowns of a few of those options, starting with a rounding out of the (consensus) top 10 wideouts and then a quick look at a variety of guys who could be available later in the draft.

Names are ordered based on the general consensus of their position ranking and draft projection, which is based on the aggregate rankings of The Athletic, NFL.com, CBS Sports, and ESPN.

NOTE: I do NOT like all of these guys, at least when it comes to value vs. draft projection and fit/need within our offense. But there are so many guys clustered around the 1st-2nd round that I’ve included as many of them as I could just for reference. For the Day 3 guys, I’ve just thrown a wide net to highlight some of the more interesting players who could be available and how they differ in position and fit.

Justin Jefferson, LSU

Height: 6-1
Weight: 202 lbs.
Wingspan: 78”

Savvy, competitive slot receiver with the short-area quickness and smarts to forge a long NFL career, even if it’s in a supporting role

A competitive and physical slot receiver, Jefferson has good size and great length (6’6” wingspan) to go along with smooth athleticism, the loose hips and tracking ability to adjust to and secure deep balls, and a knack for getting open with a lot of tools that are hard to teach. That includes pacing in his routes, mixing up tempos, and using hesitation moves, head fakes, and jukes to spring himself at the top of his stems. Add in his great awareness for finding the soft spot in zones and fitting himself into passing windows, and he’s a high floor type of player.

But there are genuine questions about his ceiling. While he gets separation out of breaks, that’s the only time you see him distance himself from receivers. Despite playing in an empty-heavy pass attack that spreads the field and gave him more open space and mismatch advantages than he will ever see in the NFL, defensive backs often stuck to him early and late. Part of that is cause his routes still need cleaning up and he struggles to beat the press. Part of that is because — despite strong sprinting and leaping numbers — he just isn’t that explosive of an athlete. 

Fit the Niners: It’s not great. Jefferson’s most translatable skill set is as an underneath specialist, which we have plenty of on the roster. And it would be a very bad sign for the recovery of Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd if we were to draft a pure slot receiver in the first round, especially in a class that is deep enough to find a role player / injury assurance later on.

NFL Comp: Jarvis Landry, LSU (Browns)

Position Rank: 4.0
Projection: Top 25

Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State

Height: 5-11.5
Weight: 205 lbs.
Wingspan: 80”

Big-play YAC monster who lacks polish but has the explosive traits to develop into a well-rounded and dangerous outside threat

Explosive athlete who plays faster than he tested and profiles as a big-play threat both as a vertical receiver and with the ball in his hand. Accelerates to top speed in a hurry, doing a ton of damage busting angles on slants and in general thriving in space both on offense and special teams (where he averaged 32 yd/KR and 16 yd/PR last year). Interesting body type gives him the best of both worlds; his below average height (a shade under six foot) lets him move with great fluidity both in his routes and while adjusting to the ball in the air, while his 6’8” wingspan (one of the longest in the class) gives him the length of a much bigger receiver. 

You just wish he’d use that wingspan a bit more, particularly against press coverage, where he has no excuse to let people into his pads but does so anyway. And despite his length and athleticism, he doesn’t stand out as a dominant jump ball guy, showing natural hands to pluck on the run but sometimes letting the ball into his body a bit. As a route runner he has good potential, but didn’t run a full route tree at ASU, rounds his breaks too much, and doesn’t show enough upper body movement (head fakes, shoulder lean, etc.). Overall, he lacks polish, but has the physical traits and skill set to develop into a true No.1 with a penchant for big plays.

Fit with Niners: Aiyuk is definitely an outside receiver and profiles as someone who could potentially play the Z or X position. He needs refinement and better use of his length to become a regular vertical threat in the NFL, but has the athletic profile to get it done, and would immediately be a big play guy in our chunk passing game. The thought of Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk on catch-and-runs would be terrifying to opposing coaches. If we miss on CeeDee Lamb, Aiyuk could become someone who gives us similar big-play ability.

NFL Comp: Greg Jennings, Western Michigan (formerly Packers)

Position Rank: 5.25
Projection: 1st-2nd Round

Tee Higgins, Clemson

Height: 6-3.5”
Weight: 216 lbs.
Wingspan: 81”

Long acrobatic jump ball threat who will need to overcompensate for his lack of short-area-quickness and burst with his 50/50 ball ability

Long, lean, and with one of the best wingspans in this crop of receivers, Higgins has some of the best hands in this class and makes a living off of winning contested balls at the catch point. He does well in traffic, using his big body to shield defenders from the ball and running hard after the catch. He's an improved route runner, with the frame to add muscle, and an accomplished redzone weapon and deceptive deep threat due to his long-striding speed (25 TDs in the last two years).

Like many tall possession receivers before him, you have to ask the question of whether his lack of separation skills will nullify his ball skills in the pros. Despite his long-strider speed, he's far from a burner, and he isn't particularly quick or explosive, with subpar burst out of his breaks. He doesn't get separation in short-to-intermediate routes, and his play strength and bulk aren't enough to muscle defenders away to compensate. Higgins' decent long speed and top-end ball skills make him less likely to fully flop than many tall, non-explosive, wideouts of drafts past, but -- given the poor hit rate of that profile -- this is the type of receiver I typically try to avoid. 

Fit with Niners: If he were more explosive he could project as an X, but Higgins doesn't really fit the profile of wideouts that Shanahan & Co. like to pursue. While his 4.58 forty was less than ideal, his 31" vertical and 10'03" broad jump numbers were likely more damaging, as they reaffirmed his lack of explosive ability found on tape. The one thing that Shanahan receivers NEED to do is separate. Thus Higgins seems unlikely.

NFL Comparison: DeVante Parker, Louisville (Dolphins)

Position Rank: 7.25
Projection: 1st-2nd Round

Michael Pittman Jr., USC

Height: 6-4
Weight: 223 lbs.
Wingspan: 79.25”

Big, strong, possession receiver lacks explosive upside but should settle in as a reliable No.2

Unsurprising given the frame of his former NFL father, Michael Pittman Jr. is a big, well-built dude who uses his size and strength in every facet of his game. He's tough to press, boxes out defenders with his large frame, and runs hard after the catch. He's also got highly reliable hands, securing the catch whether it's tracking the ball deep down the field or snagging catches in traffic. 

But his ceiling's capped as he's nothing special as an athlete. Got open deep more often than expected in college, but lacks the speed to do that in the pros. Isn't particularly sudden or explosive, and may get called for the occasional pass interference for being overly physical on underneath routes. Isn't a dynamic YAC threat, getting extra yards with power but won't break big plays with the ball in his hands. Has a long history of injury issues.

Fit with Niners: While he could theoretically play a "bully" X role similar to the role envisioned for Pierre Garcon when he joined the Niners, Pittman -- much like Tee Higgins -- doesn't really fit the mold of a Shanahan receiver due to his lack of explosiveness and separation skills. Pittman could become a reliable No.2/3, but it likely won't be with the Niners as I would expect them to be looking for a different skillset from the position high in the draft.

NFL Comparison: Bigger Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers (Patriots) with shades of JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC (Steelers)

Position Rank: 7.75
Projection: 2nd Round

Jalen Reagor, TCU

Height: 5-10.5
Weight: 206 lbs.
Wingspan: 74 3/8

Explosive space athlete who excels with the ball in his hands, but there are many questions on how best to get it there in the first place

Raegor is explosive enough that a 4.47 forty time at the combine was deemed legitimately disappointing. However, his speed is far better than that time would indicate and the rest of his explosive testing numbers (42" vertical, 138" broad) better match his tape. His highlights are overflowing with game-breaking home run plays whenever he gets the ball in his hands, whether on jet sweeps, screens, or downfield passes. He is a tremendous natural runner who gets to top speed immediately, is electric in the open field, and can (and has) scored in pretty much every way imaginable throughout college. That includes as a true receiver, where he had over 1,000 yards receiving and nine scores as a wideout in 2018 (in addition to 130 rushing yards and two scores on the ground) and showcased his potential as an NFL wideout.

In fact, if he was eligible to declare after his 2018 season he'd almost certainly have been a first-round pick, but in 2019, his production dropped off alongside a poor TCU offense, and he started to show more drops and more uneven effort and temperament. It's possible that was simply a product of frustration given the team's struggles, as Raegor is said to be one of his team's hardest workers, but his lack of clear progress as a junior leads to a number of developmental questions. He has route running ability, but it's far from a finished product, and he struggles with stronger press corners. He catches the ball outside his frame but had major focus drops in 2019 and may never become a contested-catch threat. He's a boom-or-bust prospect, and while he's not as rough around the edges as the dreaded Urban Meyer H prospect (Braxton Miller, Curtis Samuel), his floor seems just a notch above, while his ceiling could be something closer to Stefon Diggs -- a top-flight athlete who suffered from a lackluster supporting cast in college.

Fit with Niners: The hope would clearly be that he becomes the latter of his projections, a true inside-outside threat who could play Z as well as H in our offense. But immediately, he'd likely be used more as a gadget/utility player or broken into the offense over the season like Deebo last year. Expect lots of slants, screens, reverses, and at least the threat of vertical routes as he builds into a more complete receiver.

NFL Comparison: Curtis Samuel, Ohio State (Panthers) <-> Stefon Diggs, Maryland (Vikings)

Position Rank: 8.0
Projection: 2nd round

Laviska Shenault, Colorado

Height: 6-0.5
Weight: 227 lbs.
Wingspan: 76 1/4

All-purpose bulldozer who brings versatility and unmatched physicality to the position, but his durability and developmental concerns will require the proper fit, patience, and injury luck in order to maximize his potential

Shenault is the only player in this class whose highlight reel includes Mossing a DB on a deep ball, ankle-breaking a DB off a curl route, and trucking a defensive lineman in the backfield on a fly sweep. He was a true all-purpose threat for the Buffaloes, lining up everywhere (including Wildcat quarterback) for Colorado, where he was a one-man offense (in his three years at CU, there was only one Colorado offensive player drafted, and that was in the sixth round). A power running back with the ball in his hands, a bruising physicality imbues everything about his game. He trucks would-be tacklers, throws smaller DBs who try to press him, and drags multiple defenders in the open field. As a runner, he's got great natural instincts and makes big plays beyond his athleticism. As a receiver, he has quick, strong hands, excelling over the middle and in dealing with contact (only 7 drops in three years). Down the field, he tracks and adjusts to the deep ball well, winning at the catch point even with contact.

However, Shenault's versatility and workload have taken their toll on his development. He's been asked to do so much, he hasn't had time to develop the nuances of simply playing receiver, a fact that's shown in his rudimentary route-running skills and inconsistent technique. He also plays so physical and takes (and dishes) so much contact that he has major durability concerns, with the past two years including toe, shoulder, and core muscle injuries that have required surgery. Finally, as an athlete he's just not particularly fast or explosive. Even if he cleans up his technique, he's unlikely to get tons of separation on the pro level. All this makes him a major boom-or-bust prospect so landing in the right situation will be particularly important in determining which he becomes.

Fit with Niners: Shenault needs good coaching, some patience, and a creative play-caller to get the most of his ability, and we have all that in spades. But seeing as we already have Deebo Samuel, would drafting Shenault mean the Niners are trying to create a "Warriors-on-grass" lineup of tons of versatile positionless wideouts? Or perhaps they'd be looking at Shenault as more of a receiver/pass-catching running back? Or maybe something in between, like a backfield-leaning Jalen Hurd? We're probably looking for more speed and vertical stretch at the position given what we have, but if Shenault were to slip...

NFL Comparison: Higher variance Deebo Samuel, South Carolina (49ers)

Position Rank: 8.25
Projection: 2nd round

Denzel Mims, Baylor

Height: 6-3
Weight: 207 lbs.
Wingspan: 78.5”

Big-bodied athlete with the elite size-speed ratio and movement skills to become a true No.1... if he becomes much more consistent

A physical freak who proved his rare athleticism at the combine. Despite his 6-3, 207-pound frame, he recorded a 4.38 forty, 38.5" vertical jump, 10'11" broad jump, and 6.66 cone drill -- all top-eight finishes among receivers and the best cone drill mark at the combine by a very large margin. Those movement skills show up on film, where he can run by defenders, flip his hips with ease, and make acrobatic catches look routine. His size, length, and fluidity make him a redzone nightmare (28TDs in three years) and a constant back shoulder threat, and while Baylor's route tree was rudimentary, Mims showed out well at the Senior Bowl with more advanced route running and release techniques. He also flashes plus play strength, showing great physicality at the top of routes, with the ball in his hands, and as a run blocker.

But you wish those flashes were more of a regular occurrence, as lack of consistency is clearly Mims' greatest drawback. He doesn't blow by defenders as often as he should given his speed, he drops too many passes, particularly when he's contacted at the catch point, and in general, his sense of urgency seems to wane from down-to-down. Yes, he has work to do in the route running department, but it's this lack of consistency that is Mims' greatest question mark and what will determine if he rises to his significant ceiling or drops to his equally drastic floor.

Fit with Niners: Mims is an X receiver through and through. And while Kendrick Bourne does a lot of good things for us, he's not a deep threat or a back shoulder threat, and adding a vertical stretch and outside the hashes option would give our offense a substantial boost. If he can develop and maximize his tremendous potential of course.

NFL Comparison: Courtland Sutton, SMU (Broncos)

Position Rank: 8.75
Projection: 1st - 2nd Round

Day 2 (Rounds 2-3) Wideouts

As stated before, this is a VERY deep receiver class. Here are a handful of other intriguing wideouts who could go in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

KJ Hamler, Penn State

Diminutive but explosive space player can score from anywhere on the field but may lack the hands to become a full-time contributor out of the slot

Hamler is lightning in a bottle, showing as good of burst, start-stop ability, acceleration to top speed, and open field ankle breaks as anyone in a draft class full of satellite players. In two years of play he averaged nearly 17 yards/catch and scored 13 touchdowns, showing the growth and potential as a route runner that makes you think he could become a full-time slot. That being said, he is 5-8.5, 178 pounds and thus vastly undersized for the position; while he competes hard, he doesn't show more strength than you'd expect given his size. Ultimately, he's never going to be a winner on contested catches, as he is a small target who doesn't wall off defenders and he has some of the shakiest hands in the class (FBS-leading 12 drops in 2019). But speed and playmaking in space are at an all-time high and someone will take the risk believing they can develop him. Whoever does should have a specific plan and creative play-caller to employ him, otherwise, he could be Tavon Austin 2.0.

Projection: 2nd Round

Chase Claypool, Notre Dame

Physical specimen with incredible size-speed ratio who excels at 50/50 balls but lacks route-running polish and instincts

A future X receiver through and through, Claypool combines a 6-4 238 pound frame with a 4.42 forty and 40.5" vertical. And while he doesn't play that fast on tape, he certainly plays that big and explosive. He thrives on contested catches, shifting the odds in his favor on 50/50 balls and excelling in the redzone and on vertical routes. But he's very raw as a route runner and on his release and lacks the hip fluidity and explosive burst out of cuts to project as a surefire separation getter on short-to-intermediate routes. Perhaps that won't matter due to his size and physicality, but to become a true three-level threat he'll have to improve a lot of the more nuanced, instinctual part of playing the position, and that's always the hardest thing to project.

Projection: 2nd - 3rd Round

Bryan Edwards, South Carolina

Big, strong, athletic, and flashes total package wideout skills... if only he were more consistent and polished

There's another world (and perhaps another class) where Edwards would be valued closer to the top of the second round. But after multiple injuries kept him out of the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine and then COVID-19 prevented him from holding a pro day, working out with teams, or getting a medical check, his stock has taken a hit. That could certainly benefit whoever picks him, as he has a tantalizing size-speed combination, plays tough and strong all over the field, flashes the acrobatic and incredible catch (like the first two in his highlight reel), and has started a whopping 47 games (with a catch in 48 consecutive) throughout college. But oftentimes his game doesn't resemble a player with that much experience. His route running is lacking, as is his positioning and body usage on down the field throws, and drops have plagued his tape. And unlike someone like Jeudy or Raegor whose drops have surfaced in a single season and could be an outlier, four years of proof practically assures Edwards will have some issues with his hands in the pros. That being said, there's a lot to like in what he offers, and if a coaching staff can get him to more consistently focus and hone his technique, he could be a savvy buy-low candidate who greatly outperforms his draft slot.

Projection: 2nd - 3rd Round

Van Jefferson, Florida

Master route runner with consistent hands won't wow anyone but could carve out a long career as an underneath possession receiver

Formerly a member of the same Ole Miss class that included DK Metcalf and AJ Brown, Jefferson was always the most polished of the three. As the son of a long-time NFL player and receivers coach, that shouldn't be surprising. In terms of pure technical skill, his routes rival Jerry Jeudy's, showing all the footwork, hips, and burst out of his breaks to get open while moving all across the formation. He does all the little things well and has consistent hands to boot (only 4 drops in past two years), but his physical traits are average or below it across the board. He's not particularly strong, has speed that is average at best, and -- while his foot speed is quick -- he just isn't very explosive. He's never going to be a 50/50 threat or a playmaker after the catch. At 6-0 200 pounds and with a slender frame, he could be relegated to a slot role in the NFL, but while his highlight may not impress many people, he is a high floor prospect who should at least be a reliable No.3 out of the slot. Perhaps more given his high polish and pedigree.

Projection: 3rd Round

Day 3 (Rounds 4-7) Wideouts

A smattering of other intriguing late day options. Given their later draft slots, some of these guys lean more towards backup/role player positions while others are boom-bust projects. I’ve clustered them into their player-types and/or potential roles in the NFL.

Slot Receiver Specialists

Future H receivers who range from underneath possession guys to discount space players.

KJ Hill, Ohio State: The least explosive of the three, but the most polished. Hill has great hands but very average athleticism will limit him to an underneath role as a possession slot. At OSU he was like the one junior who shoots the three ball at Kentucky, never a top performer but always an important role player to balance out the better, higher variance athletes. (3rd - 4th Round)

James Proche, SMU: Also with great hands, Proche has had a massively productive college career, racking up nearly 4,000 yards and 39 scores over four years at SMU. Competitive and with decent upside and natural receiver skills, he'll need polish to match the big up in competition, but has some nice potential. (4th Round)

Devin Duvernay, Texas: The most athletic of the three but clearly the least consistent, Duvernay burst onto the scene this year as an explosive slot receiver. And while not nearly the all-around athlete and space player as a Raegor or Hamler, his speed (4.39 forty) and running ability make him strong after the catch. (4th Round)

Big Boys Who Go Get It

X receivers through and through, with an emphasis on 50/50 jump-ball ability, red zone targets, and vertical routes.

Collin Johnson, Texas: Was the top senior receiver on many draft boards entering the season, but a hamstring injury caused him to miss half the year and an ensuing hip flexor injury had him miss the combine. At 6-5.5 and 222 pounds, he uses every inch of his body to box out defenders and win at the catch point. A little stiff-hipped and won't ever be a threat after the catch, but has decent nuance as a route runner and should become a zone beater with the potential for more. (3rd - 4th Round)

Gabriel Davis, UCF: The smallest of the three, Davis made his living off of deep routes, where his long strider speed and tracking ability made him impossible to cover in the AAC. That being said, he's a build-up runner, meaning he isn't going to really burn by people in the pros and he may never become a short-to-intermediate option. The Terrance Williams comps seem reasonable: a deep-ball specialist who flashes the potential for more but should be paired with multiple underneath options. (3rd - 4th Round)

Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State: Long and slender, Hodgins compensates for a lack of bulk with great hip fluidity and a giant catch radius due to his ability to get full extension on an 80.5" wingspan. He wasn't a big-play threat in college and lacks the athletic traits to become one in the pros, but could find a niche as a red zone target (20 TDs in college) and reliable possession receiver underneath. (4th - 5th Round)

Swiss Army Knives

Positionless/versatile dudes who will require a usage plan and a creative play-caller to develop, but who could prove steals in the right position

Lynn Bowden Jr., Kentucky: After leading Kentucky in receiving in 2018, Bowden stepped in halfway through the 2019 season for their injured signal-caller and went 6-2 as their starting QB while rushing for nearly 1,500 yards and 13 scores. Naturally, this has greatly stunted his growth as a receiver but shows his ability as a playmaker with the ball in his hands. He's not a true burner but he's got great quickness, vision, and open-field elusiveness. His well-built frame makes him tough to tackle, and he's dangerous as a runner, receiver, or returner, where he averaged 22.1 yards per punt return and scored twice despite only being kicked to nine times in his college career. As a receiver, he lacks ideal height (5-10.5) or length (74" wingspan), his choppy short-strides may prevent him from ever being a deep threat, and he is hugely unpolished in nearly every facet of the job, with raw routes, inconsistent hands, and a bad penchant for fumbling. He's also run with the wrong crowd in the past and will require character evals via interviews and background checks. Lots of potential, but will require a development and deployment plan to have a chance at maximizing it (3rd - 4th Round)

Antonio Gibson, Memphis: While he played running back at the Senior Bowl he split time between RB and WR during his brief stint in college, totaling an absurd stat line of 77 touches and 14 scores (plus one KR TD) over the past two years. On the ground, he averaged 11.2(!) yards/carry while through the air he netted 19.0 yards/catch. And with his 6-0 228-pound frame and 4.39 forty yard dash, the big-play ability is intriguing, especially as a gadget player and a receiver out of the backfield. But you have to be worried about the fact that he only started nine games in his college career for an AAC squad. If he had better vision and patience wouldn't he have gotten more than the fifth-most carries on his team? Or if he was a more polished and capable receiver wouldn't he have gotten more than the fourth-most catches? Anyone who drafts him likely sees him as Austin Ekeler with a power mushroom, but they should at least be prepared for the chance that he's Cordarrelle Patterson instead. (3rd - 4th Round)

Physical Tools Projects

When tremendous physical ability hasn't shaped into great on-field production. Far from immediate contributors, these are guys who are inherently riskier and will need plenty of time to develop.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan: While hard to believe now, DPJ was the consensus top-rated wideout in this junior class coming out of high school. He's got an NFL body and is a top tier athlete, running a 4.48 at 6-1.5 and 212 pounds and besting all combine participants with a 44.5" vertical and 11'07" broad jump. Clearly he has springs for legs and the explosiveness to get behind defenses, and he’s actually showed plus ball skills to go along with his impressive wingspan (79 1/4”). But his start-stop burst is lacking, and despite starting 26 games in college, he simply never picked up many of the nuances of playing wideout. Too much wasted motion, too much wasted time, and too many quiet games (zero 100-yard games in college). That being said, he is known as an NFL-ready worker and a smart guy (plans to be an orthopedic surgeon after NFL), and someone will take a risk on one of the bigger boom-bust projects in this draft. (4th - 5th Round)

John Hightower, Boise State: Perhaps less of a project and more of a one-trick pony, Hightower has the acceleration, straight-line speed, and smooth tracking skills to develop into an outside vertical threat in the NFL. There are just a number of physicality and frame concerns that question whether or not he can do anything between the hashes. While not as polished as Will Fuller, as explosive as Mike Wallace or John Brown, or as dynamic as Martavis Bryant, the hope is he can be molded into a similar deep ball role. (5th Round)

Joe Reed, Virginia: At 6-0.5 224 pounds, Reed is built more like a running back than a wideout, and it's when the ball is in his hands that he shines. An excellent open-field runner who combines great vision, balance, the ability to break tackles, and a 4.47 forty with a 38" vertical, his open-field running is best on display as a kick returner, where he averaged an FBS-leading 33.2 per return in 2019 and has housed 5(!) kickoff returns in the past three years. But how do you get him the ball in the first place? Because as a route runner and receiver, he is pretty much an unformed lump of clay, running sloppy routes and often catching the ball within five yards of the LOS. But this late in the draft, the special teams impact will be enough for someone to take the risk. (5th Round)

Small School Sleepers

FCS-level or lower. Almost always projects to some extent. Often require an adjustment period before they can contribute on the NFL level.

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty: A competitive gymnast until his teenage years, when -- I assume -- he grew too big (6-4 223 pounds), Gandy-Golden shows the fluidity, flexibility, and body control of his former sport of choice. He shows a tremendous ability to win at the catch point, and the slippery athleticism to get yardage after the catch even in contested situations. While he put up three straight 1,000+ yard and 10 TD seasons to finish his college career, his average speed and long strides could limit his ability to separate in the pros, and -- while he's improved over the years -- he requires polish in his route running. But the size and ball skills make for a very intriguing potential three-level threat at X receiver. (3rd - 4th Round)

Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island: Smooth, athletic, and playing his best against some of his best competition (152 yards against Va Tech in 2019), Coulter is actually a more advanced route runner than most prospects coming from the FCS level (although still a bit raw). He's got good athleticism and speed and consistent hands on both routine and acrobatic catches. The physical nature of the NFL could be where his transition is the most difficult, as he is a long, lanky type who doesn't play with much strength and often tries for more fadeaway contested grabs rather than attacking the ball at its highest point. But if he can get more aggressive against stronger and faster NFL competition, he has intriguing pre- and post-catch ability. (4th Round)

Are there other draft able wideouts in this class? Absolutely.

Will I be writing about them? Not unless we draft them first.

Next up, I’ll be looking at other offensive prospects, namely linemen and tight ends.

Draftables: WR, Henry Ruggs III, Alabama

Wide Receiver, Henry Ruggs III

School: Alabama
Height: 5’11
Weight: 188 lbs.
Wingspan: 74 1/2

Testing Results

Compared to the average figures of the top 30 wideouts shown in RED

In his three years at Alabama, Ruggs lined up inside and out en route to scoring the third-most receiving touchdowns in school history (24). This despite having fewer than 100 catches on his career. Yes, that’s right, he scored a touchdown every 4.1 catches. With each touchdown catch averaging nearly 30 yards.

Now there’s a lot to unpack there, starting with the less than 100 career catches despite starting 27 games over his past two seasons. As mentioned in the Jeudy writeup, Alabama is absolutely loaded at the wide receiver position, so there were plenty of mouths to feed. Throw in the fact that Ruggs’ deep speed was the most useful skill for stretching the field and opening things up for his teammates, and it makes sense that he was the third most-fed wideout on the team. 

It’s also worth noting that Bama’s offensive play-caller was Steve Sarkisian, whose claim to fame is still a co-offensive coordinator position with Lane Kiffin a dozen years ago on a stacked USC team with an offense that Norm Chow — one of the best offensive minds over multiple decades — had already built. Just because Ruggs has been limited largely to streaks, slants, and deep crossers doesn’t mean that’s all he can run. But it does make his evaluation much more difficult. Especially without access to any All-22 film (I only have it for NFL games). 

So let’s start with what we know. Henry Ruggs III is the undisputed speedster of a very VERY fast class of wideouts, a fact which he’s proven both on and off the field. At the combine, he ran the fastest forty-yard dash (4.27) and the second-highest vertical jump (42”) among all participants and tallied the fourth-longest broad jump among receivers (131”). And while testing numbers can be misleading, he’s backed up his big-play ability on the field, or — you know — in this basketball dunk highlight from HIGH SCHOOL.

Henry Ruggs recorded a 4.27 in the 40 at the NFL combine yesterday. Here he is showing his athleticism in high school. (video via @hudl, JG Images, @__RUGGS) pic.twitter.com/WxK6slUuwA

— Hoopmixtape.com (@Hoopmixtape) February 28, 2020

Henry Ruggs is — as some would say — a three-syllable ATH-UH-LETE. 

Like many speed merchants before him, if Ruggs beats you off the line or gets a free lane on a slant, he’s a threat to score, but he isn’t a one-dimensional threat in the vein of a Ted Ginn Jr. or Darrius Heyward-Bey. While Ruggs’ opportunities have been limited compared to his lofty draft status, he’s shown several traits that imply his best football is likely ahead of him. He’s got quick feet to go with his deep speed, as seen in his slippery outside-in releases off the LOS, his ability to start and stop in a hurry, and the explosive burst and separation that he generates out of his cuts. And he doesn’t just run by guys. He knows how to set up the changeup off the fastball, showing the ability to mix up his tempo, switch gears, and leverage his speed to get defenders off balance before breaking back towards the ball. He’s a good route runner and a solid hands catcher, plucking the ball away from his body and showing the ability to make difficult contested catches down the field. And he plays with a great competitive fire and willingness to get into the mix both in blocking and on special teams despite his size. So while the first round graveyard of speedsters has a long and devastating history (Tavon Austin, John Ross, etc), there’s reason to believe Ruggs could be different.

But taking on a larger role in the pros also means that Ruggs will be asked to develop a more polished and well-rounded skill set. Like many speed merchants, there are times when he’s too fast, rushing through releases and routes and missing open holes in zone coverage. Speed is great, but his route running and field awareness must continue to improve to properly punish teams underneath when they play off coverage.

Then there’s the physical side of things. As a smaller receiver with one of the shorter wingspans in this class and a thinly built frame, there are always going to be questions of durability and consistency when going across the middle. He’s never going to be the most powerful receiver, but he needs to get better at walling off defenders on slants and other in-breaking routes versus tight physical coverage. 

In terms of coverage, college teams were too scared to regularly press him. NFL teams won’t be. So while he’s got quick feet and some wiggle off the line, he’ll need to become a much better technician on his releases — and start using his hands and upper body — to ensure that press coverage can’t shut him down before he gets started. And finally, a speedy threat who slows down tremendously on contact down the field loses much of what makes him dynamic in the first place. He’ll need much improvement at keeping his routes speedy and effective when defenders are draped over him.

Ruggs faces many of the same transition costs as past undersized speedsters, but with better jets, more production, and greater polish than many past busts, it’s reasonable to believe he’ll outperform similar prospects in the pros. Regardless, he is a much greater boom-or-bust prospect than Jeudy, Lamb, and many other wideouts in this class.

Fit with Niners

Ruggs would give the Niners the vertical threat that they so clearly need, but it may not be right away. Initially, I would expect a lot of stuff to scheme him open on slants, end arounds, and deep crossers while siphoning some snaps from Bourne at the X (giving us one size matchup and one speed matchup) and perhaps some time in the slot as well. His role wouldn’t really be filling in for Emmo Sanders. It’d be filling in for Marquise Goodwin.

The long-term goal is that Ruggs would become a consistent vertical threat on the outside who can take the top off of defenses, open things up underneath for Kittle and Deebo, and in general add the sudden, explosive, and off-script scoring power that our offense has struggled to find at times. How prepared is Ruggs to make that kind of impact? And if he becomes that kind of deep threat, will Jimmy G and his oft-criticized long ball be able to take advantage? Only time will tell. 

NFL Comparisons

Floor: Marquise Goodwin, Texas (49ers)

Ruggs has a bit more height and heft to his name than Goodwin, and — although his size will make him a constant durability question — hasn’t had nearly the injury history. He also has shown more consistency catching the ball, more polish out of college as a route runner, and more promise snagging contested balls down the field. 

That being said, an undersized wideout with truly game-breaking speed seems to match what we saw glimpses of from Goodwin in 2017 and 2018, where he racked up 1,357 yards and averaged 17.2 yards per catch. If Ruggs doesn’t develop into something more than that kind of big-play threat, at least Shanahan will know how to use him.

NOTE: in Goodwin’s two years before joining the Niners he totaled two and one catches, respectively, while playing for the Bills. So if he doesn’t fully develop, not everyone can utilize a player like Ruggs. 

Ceiling: Juicier T.Y. Hilton, Florida International (Colts)

While the in-vogue comparison is Tyreek Hill, I think Hilton is a better match. Tyreek has always had a stockier, more running back build (he was a part-time running back in college) and has excelled by being dynamic after the catch, while Hilton’s slim build and deep ball prowess more accurately match Ruggs’ game.

This is far from an insult, as Hilton actually has a higher career yards per catch (15.6 to 14.6) and yards per game (72.9 to 69.7) while securing about the same catches per game (4.67 to 4.76) despite two years with Jacoby Brissett at the helm (his only two years where he didn’t eclipse 1,000 yards receiving in the past seven), and zero years playing in an Andy Reid offense.

And again, this comp is for a faster Hilton, as Ruggs is entering the NFL a little bit bigger (+1.5” height), faster (-.10 forty speed), and more explosive (+6.5” vertical, +12” broad jump) than Hilton. For a fully actualized Ruggs, the ceiling is quite high.

Mock Drafts

Draftables: WR, Jerry Jeudy, Alabama

Wide Receiver, Jerry Jeudy

School: Alabama
Height: 6’1
Weight: 193 lbs.
Wingspan: 76

Testing Results

Compared to the average figures of the top 30 wideouts shown in RED

Scouting Report

The alpha dog of Alabama’s truly unfair four-headed receiving corps (all of whom have a chance to be selected in the first round of this and next year’s draft), Jeudy won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top wideout as a true sophomore (2018) and was a back-to-back first-team All-American for the Tide (despite the missed time from Tua).

Often what separates the top wideouts from the middle-of-the-pack is that they don’t waste motion, and everything Jeudy does is efficient and clean. An absolute technician, Jeudy is as advanced a route runner as I’ve seen on the college level and is as pro-ready as any wideout in this draft. He’s lightning-quick off the line of scrimmage, showing a wide arsenal of releases and excellent foot speed both in shedding press coverage and making breaks and turns off of his vertical stem. He paces his routes, leverages different coverages, and sets up defensive backs with stems and body lean before shifting gears and breaking in the opposite direction in a blur. In fact, he gets so much separation that it can often make his highlight reels boring, as he’s so wide open that the end result doesn’t look impressive:

A high character guy with a well-known work ethic, he has good field smarts and has shown the ability to get open against man coverage and find the soft spot in zones. And while he’s not a burner, he possesses the immediate upfield turn and the burst to create after the catch. Whether it’s a jab step off the line, an effortless break out of a route, plucking a late-seen ball under duress, or a video game like stop-juke…

#Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy in the open field is poetry in motion. The best dead leg juke in all of football.

(H/T @JReidNFL) pic.twitter.com/hfWJpCLtwI

— Steve Frederick (@_SteveFrederick) July 21, 2019

…all of Jeudy’s game centers around his incredible quickness.

While Jeudy possesses enticing “plug-and-play” ability, there’s much debate as to what his ceiling is in the pros. While incredibly quick, he is not a truly special athlete and played alongside a full stable of NFL talent. He gears down his hips to make breaks in a hurry, but there are times where he looks a bit stiff in his approach. That stiffness is sometimes seen in his hands as well, which are undeniably fast enough to make difficult grabs, but lack the easy full-extension grace of someone like Lamb.

In addition, his average length but below-average frame causes concern for some scouts, as Jeudy lacks the power to break many tackles and has had his issues with focus drops over the middle. Jump balls and contested catches have never really been his forte, but he had eight drops (mostly coming in traffic) in 2019 after only three in 2018. Now is that a sign of things to come? A product of him being asked to become less of a deep threat and more of a high-volume target? Or were the increased drops simply an anomaly? Jeudy is incredibly quick and certainly fast enough, but he’s not a pure blazer. Will that quickness and route running acumen make up for his questionable talents when the ball’s in the air?

Make no mistake, there are PLENTY of draft analysts and prognosticators (and likely scouts) who see both Lamb and Jeudy as top ten talents with sky-high potential. And barring injury, there is practically zero chance that Jerry Jeudy is a bust. He’s too quick and too polished NOT to find a long-time role in the league. The question is what kind of role that ultimately becomes.

Fit with Niners

Jeudy would immediately take over Emmanuel Sanders’ role, playing all over the field but — at least initially — primarily out of the slot. Unlike Ruggs, who we’d scheme looks based on speed, or Lamb, who we’d use mostly on 50/50 down the field balls and YAC yardage opportunities, Jeudy would be expected to run a large route tree from the jump as we develop him into a three-level threat with inside-out ability.

There have been many draft pundits who think Shanahan will fall in love with Jeudy’s route running and quickness, and one vocal one who thinks the opposite. But Shanahan’s interest in Jeudy may ultimately depend on how well he thinks the Bama product’s route-running and speed will translate into becoming a viable deep threat in the NFL.

We already have excellent underneath options in Kittle and Deebo, and Bourne is primarily used on intermediate routes. What we need is someone who can get open deep. Even an older Emmo could do this in spurts (see: the would-be Super Bowl-winning post against double coverage) and that drastically opened up our offense. Even if Jeudy proves to be mostly a slot receiver in the pros, if he can take the top off of the defense and open up space underneath, that could certainly be enough to take our offense to the next level.

NFL Comparisons

Floor: Julian Edelman, Kent State (Patriots)

Edelman is a good player. People who have worn an Antoine Walker jersey in public in the past five years would even argue that he’s a great player. But ultimately, he’s a reliable high-usage slot receiver who fits in a tailor-made scheme that plays to his strengths: using quickness to get open underneath. Even if Jeudy doesn’t develop the physicality, hands in traffic, and vertical ability as he transitions into the NFL, and even if he turns out to be 90% a slot receiver, he should still be at least a good slot receiver who gets open early.

Note: If you’re looking for a comparison between Jeudy’s floor and ceiling, think slender Amari Cooper. Good athlete, great route runner, but doesn’t have the best hands in the world.

Ceiling: Emmo Sanders, SMU (Saints) / Antonio Brown, Central Michigan (currently…)

Both of the above names are two inches shorter and ~10 pounds lighter than Jeudy, but they overcame size limitations due to their quickness, route running savvy, and the fact that no matter the route they were ALWAYS open. While not as fluid as the above names, Jeudy has the traits to develop into a similar three-level threat as Sanders/Brown in their primes. But that means cleaning up the focus drops and improving through contact.

Mock Drafts

Draftables: WR, CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma

Wide Receiver, CeeDee Lamb

School: Oklahoma
Height: 6’1
Weight: 198 lbs.
Wingspan: 76 5/8

Testing Results

Compared to the average figures of the top 30 wideouts shown in RED

Scouting Report

Massively productive wideout who was a major cog in three straight years of record-breaking Oklahoma offenses, putting up monster stats despite having a different starting quarterback each year (two won the Heisman and went first overall in the draft so… don’t feel too bad for him). In three years playing both outside and in the slot, he had upwards of 3,000 yards and racked up 32 scores with a 19 yd/catch clip.

Big plays? Yes please.

A silky-smooth athlete with elite body control who plays stronger than he looks and faster than he tests, Lamb is a true three-level weapon and a home run threat from anywhere on the field. In the short game, he can pluck the ball off of a slant or quick out and has the burst, slippery elusiveness, and vision to turn any short pass into a big gain. In the intermediate game he uses his hands well to get subtle separation and has the incredible hips to stop on a dime and turn upfield after a comeback or open up for a nasty back shoulder fade. And as a deep threat — while lacking great top-end speed — he walls off defenders, tracks the ball with ease, and routinely wins at the catch point.

Also, his hands are pretty good.

He’s a savvy and natural route runner who gets separation by varying his route tempo and breaking into long gliding strides that bely his play speed, but his cuts aren’t as crisp as you’d like to see. Playing in Lincoln Riley’s scheme and competing against Big 12 defenses, he was able to get away with a little more freelancing and was rarely threatened with physical coverage. That’ll change in the NFL. And while Lamb has the loose hips, body lean, and quick feet to beat the press, he had some issues against it in college. He particularly struggled against DBs who employed an off-the-line catch press style (or taxi technique), and will need to get more efficient at releasing and uncovering underneath against bump-and-run coverage. 

On a similar note, his gliding style is a bit too casual at times. Some of that— as mentioned above — is simply a need to speed up his routes and releases. But some of it’s loafs when he knows he’s not getting the ball. And while a tempo air raid college offense will run him faster and more often than most NFL schemes, taking those plays off won’t fly on good NFL teams.

For Lamb, maximizing his potential is about mitigating his lack of bulk. That means speeding up his foot speed and efficiency on releases, learning the nuances of setting up breaks by uncovering in the early stages of the route, making cuts with more purpose and less wasted motion, and adjusting to the more physical catch point of the NFL. If he can do that, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this draft class.

Fit with Niners

Lamb would slide into Emmanuel Sanders’ role, playing all over the field but likely starting initially in the slot to avoid press coverage as he works on adjusting to outside coverage in the pros. Having Kittle, Deebo, and Lamb would further cement our status as the YAC yardage GAWDS, and Lamb would get heavy slant and utility use as the team grooms him into an eventual No.1 wideout position.

While Shanahan is as big a stickler as any for sharp, on-time routes, and Lamb needs to clean up some things in his approach, he has all the physical tools to become an excellent route runner (and already possesses many of the natural traits that are tough to teach). And make no mistake, if he doesn’t clean up those routes or is caught taking a play off here and there, Shanahan will become a permanent (and vocal) resident inside his ass.

NFL Comparisons

Floor: Robby Anderson, Temple (now with Jets)

Skinny, slippery, and a big-play threat down the field, Anderson may never become a true No.1, but his field stretching ability makes him a coveted outside receiver and will probably get him paid this off-season. While lacking the pure speed of Anderson, if the NFL game proves just a bit too big and physical for Lamb, he should still be able to carve out a role as a complementary big-play wideout.

Ceiling: Skinny DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson (now with…“le sigh” Cardinals)

Lamb hasn’t shown the foot speed nor the physicality that Hopkins showcased at Clemson, but they’re both three-level playmakers who play longer than their height at the catch point and are dangerous with the ball in their hands. And while Hopkins is known for his strength and weighed in 16 pounds heavier than Lamb coming out of college, Lamb has the high ceiling to become a similar kind of playmaker — albeit in a more slippery and acrobatic way.

Mock Drafts

First-Round Preview

Can’t wait to see how awkward this will be over Zoom [courtesy of AP]

While discussing our potential options both at pick 13 and pick 31, I’ll be talking a lot about matching good players with positional needs. But in doing so it’s best to remember the “GTFO Man” draft evaluation system that I just made up in the last post. I’ve tried my best to match up value with the consensus opinions of draft prognosticators, but if shit goes haywire in the top ten and the Niners come upon someone who they are confident is an absolute steal, they should pull the trigger. Because getting good players is the #1 priority.

Class Strengths 

For the second straight year, the value of the current draft class seems to match up well with our team needs. In 2019, a loaded crop of edge rushers and a Cardinals team needing a franchise quarterback landed us Nick Bosa, the top player in the class, at #2. While a wideout class with a lot of second-round depth secured us Deebo Samuel at 36th overall. Those were value picks as well as need picks. And they were unquestionably home runs. The draft usually doesn’t line up that well, but — if we play the first round well enough — maybe it can again this year.

The 2020 draft class is known for its wideouts, a position that we’re clearly in the market for. And while no one doubts the class’ depth, there is some debate on the high-end talent of this class. Many draft experts are putting one or two (or sometimes even three) wideouts in the top ten of their big boards, while others see the class’ value as not really hitting until the early-to-mid teens.

Yes, this class lacks a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones surefire generational talent, a player with insane size and speed to match their complete college tape. But this class has so many guys with high ceilings that it would be a shocker if a handful don’t become studs. In terms of depth, there are probably 10-12 receivers with first or second-round grades who could be immediate plus-level performers and another half dozen in the third round who could wind up major steals. This type of depth could hurt the Niners, as it may create runs on the position (like we saw with edge rushers in 2018) and make the flow of picks less predictable. But it’s more likely to help us, as teams drafting high could be more willing to wait until later in the first round or into the second to address the wideout position. That shows in the draft predictions because — as of now — very few mock drafts have a single wideout being taken in the top ten.

That’s also due in part to the other strengths of this class, which happen to lean into two of the most positionally scarce positions in the NFL. While there are tons of question marks regarding this quarterback class, there are (arguably) up to six signal-callers possessing the blend of mental makeup and physical traits to develop into NFL starters (plus your standard later round higher-risk, higher reward type players). It’s also a top-heavy offensive tackle class, with up to four projecting as potential top ten anchors who can play right away. Now will all of these players become long-term starters? Highly unlikely. But since it’s the draft, it’s that potential to become a starter that will push these players at highly coveted positions further up the board.

So, due to the need and positional scarcity of both those positions, it’s largely expected that three quarterbacks and four tackles could go in the top ten picks. Throw in surefire top ten selections at edge rusher (Chase Young), cornerback (Jeff Okudah), and hybrid linebacker (Isaiah Simmons), and that would already fill out the top ten of the draft without any wideouts taken. And that’s not even including defensive tackle Derrick Brown, a player who tested poorly but was a top-five talent on film.

If Brown comes off the board at some point in those top 11 then we’d be looking at the Raiders (who everyone believes will select a wide receiver), and then us. But that’s a lot of guesswork for a process that each year proves to be unpredictable. So here are a few ways the first round could shake out.

At Pick #13

1 - Take a top three wideout: It’s unlikely that we get to this pick and there hasn’t been a single wideout taken off the board, so we may be looking at whichever one or two is left from the group of Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs (a trio which I’ll discuss more at length in a later post). 

Now, in a class known for its depth does it make sense to pick a wideout here? Or would it make more sense to trade down, accumulate picks, and still get a receiver with tons of potential? My guess is that if the Niners have a dude they think could become a legit No.1 receiver, they pick him at 13. While productive wideouts may seem like a dime a dozen, a true No.1 is very hard to find. If they look at the board and see more complementary pieces rather than future stars then they should look elsewhere, play to the depth of the class, and attack the position later in the first (or — if they secure a trade to acquire second day picks — the second).

Whenever the Niners go for a wideout, I expect them to add one with big-play ability because, well, this tweet: 

RIP Flameis Winston. You will be missed. pic.twitter.com/BJoIbltt6c

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 20, 2020

Names to watch: Jerry Jeudy, Alabama; CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma; Henry Ruggs III, Alabama

2 - Take a top four tackle: If faced with a potential tackle of the future, one of those top four candidates who we could see bookending with McGlinchey for the next decade, it could be hard to pass up. But there are a handful of variables here, with most of them centering around what Joe Staley’s plans are.

I’ve been working off of the assumption that Staley plays in 2020 (an assumption that I still stand by), but if reports that he could retire before the season are proven correct, then drafting a tackle with this pick immediately becomes more important than a wideout. 

But if Staley returns for one or two more years, it could be smart to invest in his replacement while we’re looking at a strong tackle draft and what will (hopefully) be the highest first-round pick that we'll have for quite some time. 

Again, that depends on how the draft unfolds. If those top four tackles are off the board by the time we pick, it’s doubtful that we have a grade high enough on whoever the fifth tackle is to have him warrant the 13th overall selection. 

It’s also worth noting that — despite the need for strong tackle play and the difficulty in finding it in the NFL — picking a tackle here may only be worth it if he can play major minutes by (at the very latest) year two, regardless of what Staley decides to do. That means he’d have to be able a viable starter on the inside this year or -- if Staley returns, we move on from Richburg, and Brunskill can indeed play center -- in 2021.

Ultimately, we didn’t trade an All-Pro defender for the 13th overall pick to pick a guy we didn't expect to play. But more importantly, you need to maximize the rookie discount and fifth-year option of first-round contracts. Picking guys in the first round with the idea of them waiting around and developing for multiple years is only for the absolutely most stacked and young teams, and — quite often — it can still bite you in the ass (see: Trent Baalke). Championship windows are shorter than you think. Anyone we pick at 13 needs to play well and play early. 

Names to watch: OT, Jedrick Wills Jr., Alabama; Tristan Wirfs, Iowa; Mekhi Becton, Louisville; Andrew Thomas, Georgia

3 - Take an elite defensive tackle: I truly do not understand why so many draft prognosticators think the Niners should go defensive tackle with this pick. Yes, we have a hole there now that Buckner is gone, but with all the young talent we’ve accumulated on the interior it’s not unreasonable to think we can offset some of that loss with our current roster. Also, as I’ve said many times before, you can’t structure your team in a way where you plan to pay everyone at a single position group, especially a group that includes four starters plus many rotational pieces. The exception to my hesitance here would be if Derrick Brown somehow falls to this pick. That would seem like just too much of a value win to ignore and could secure our pass rush dominance for at least another three years before contract extensions are up.

Names to watch: DT, Derrick Brown, Auburn; DT, Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina

4 - Trade down: While incredibly unsexy, trading down must ALWAYS be on the table if you can’t match value and need to draft slot. Clearly, the #31 pick is the easiest to see traded. People love to draft up and get quarterbacks here, teams want to secure the fifth-year option that comes with the first round, GMs get nervous about the top of the second round because then everyone will have a night to maneuver trades to get there, etc. But whether it's the 13th or the 31st pick that gets moved, we must always be thinking about accumulating capital and maneuvering to get our guys in the spots where they present the most value.

So, if we have a lot of guys that we like in that late first / mid-second round range and feel like we would be reaching on someone at #13, we could get quite the coup in return for it. Say the Dolphins wanted to swap for their #18 and #70 picks, or their #26, #56, and a future third? If it falls correctly with our big board, it could make a lot of sense.

5 - Draft a cornerback: Yeah, I’ll be honest, I don’t love this move, but enough people are talking about it that it’s at least worth looking into. To me, unless there’s a cornerback on the board who the Niners love and have ranked in an entirely different tier than everyone left in the draft, there are better options.

If you’re the Niners, this is the highest you expect to pick in a long time, and Emmanuel Moseley, while not a stud, had a very strong season (with a 70.4 PFF rating that was good for 27th in the league amongst CBs) and is locked up for another two years on an ERFA minimum contract. While he doesn’t have insane physical tools, last year was his first NFL action. The arrow on him is likely pointing up. We also run a scheme that, theoretically, minimizes the importance of lockdown cornerbacks in lieu of investment on the defensive line. That is to say, while teams in the “secondary down” style of defense building (Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, etc.) will be putting a premium on drafting elite cornerbacks and signing them via free agency, we should be able to develop a starting cornerback who can play within this scheme or add one for a reasonable price point in free agency next year.

Whoever you draft isn’t beating out Richard Sherman this year. Nor is he beating out K’Waun Williams in the nickel. So the best-case scenario is that this rookie corner beat out Moseley, stunt his growth for a year, and boot Witherspoon to the curb after this season. And if he can’t beat out Moseley? He fights for snaps against Witherspoon, DJ Reed, and Tim Harris, and — even if he beats those three out for all the dime package reps — sees maybe a dozen snaps per game.

Simply put, with what could be on the table by the time we draft, an elite wide receiver or future fixture at tackle have greater overall value and considerably more specific value given our team's schematic needs. Thus, the only reason we get a cornerback at 13 is if there's a prospect who is deemed head-and-shoulders above what’s left on the board at the time. 

Names to watch: CJ Henderson, Florida

At #31 (or into the second round, if we trade down)

1 - Trade down: We need picks, and — at the very least — we should be able to trade this pick for a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder and — in many cases — we could do so while dropping less than ten spots in the draft. While a player who has slipped unexpectedly can always throw a wrench in any late first-round projection, I would be shocked if we keep both our first-round picks. Ideally, we trade one away to accumulate the day two capital to address more team needs.

2 - Draft a flexible interior offensive lineman: It would be foolish (and unfair to him) to think that replacing Mike Person immediately shores up any issues we have along the offensive line. While it’s reasonable to expect growth in Brunskill’s second year, he’s not a surefire lock as a plus contributor at guard. And even if he is, Richburg’s lengthy injury history and hefty contract mean we could need a backup center in 2020 and a starting center in 2021.

There are players available around this spot in the draft who are zone-ready centers who can play guard in a pinch and who would be worthy of a selection around the second-round turn or later.

Names to watch: Cesar Ruiz, Michigan; Lloyd Cushenberry III, LSU; C, Matt Hennessy, Temple

3 - Draft a project OT: The top half of the first round isn't the only time when you can find future starting tackles, particularly if you have a year to develop them under seasoned veterans. 

Our outside zone scheme means we’re eliminating (or at least greatly docking the value of) a big chunk of every tackle class, but there are plenty of second round-ish prospects with the movement skills and potential to develop into long-term starters. 

Maybe this player can play right now on the inside, or maybe they're strictly a tackle who needs time to develop. At the 31st pick and lower, your players don't need to play in year one. Although, as stated above, you'd want them playing by year two at least.

Names to Watch: Josh Jones, Houston; Austin Jackson, USC; Ezra Cleveland, Boise State

4 - Tap the giant glut of wideout talent: If we didn’t pick one at 13, we need to pick one at 31 or on the second day (ideally early in the second round). This is where the bulk of this class’ talent is located, so it’s not unreasonable to think there could be a handful of different guys who Shanahan would like at the position. 

At this point, we wouldn't be looking at a guy who we're confident becomes a No.1 receiver. We'd likely be looking at someone who we could pair with Deebo and feel good about their contrasting and overlapping talents. That could be a slot (Jefferson), a speedier space guy (Aiyuk, Reagor), a swiss-army knife (Shenault), or a size-speed monster who we're banking on tapping his considerable potential (Mims, Chase Claypool).

Whether it’s at pick 13 or here, whatever player we pick should be expected to get heavy snaps early.

Names to watch: Brandon Aiyuk, ASU; Jalen Reagor, TCU; Denzel Mims, Baylor; Justin Jefferson, LSU; Laviska Shenault, Colorado

5 - Draft a cornerback: At this point, I start to understand the value proposition a bit more, and as we're now leaving the first round, we also start to gain the flexibility to go with an outside or nickel corner. 

The nickel is a starter in our defense, and seeing as Sherman, Williams, Witherspoon, and Tartt are all finishing up their contracts this year, getting a guy who could both inside and out (whichever opens up first) would give us ideal flexibility moving forward.

Names to watch: Jeff Gladney, TCU; Trevon Diggs, Alabama; Jaylon Johnson, Utah; AJ Terrell, Clemson

Next up… I’ll compare the top three wideouts in the class