GTFO Man: A new way to evaluate draft picks

At least we never picked these guys [Courtesy of Getty Images]

A “draft grade” is a fun knee-jerk reaction, a take so simplified and easily digestible that it can be packaged within a single letter grade. But in terms of substance and depth, these grades are about as useful as your annual US News College Rankings. While typically capable of pointing out the best-of-the-best (Stanford, Harvard, 2011 Niners draft class, etc.) and the bottom feeders (Bob’s Online Typing School for Profit and Real Employment, 2012 Niners draft class, etc.) they struggle to differentiate the middle 90% of draft classes. And just like said school rankings, these draft grades are often biased based on brand name (when was the last time the Patriots were given a bad grade?), incapable of quantifying locker room and schematic fit, and lacking in the overall nuance, depth, and context needed to paint an accurate picture of draft successes or failures.

So this year I’ll be breaking down every Niners pick through my own made up evaluative system called — for no reason other than my own childish amusement —“GTFO Man.” While it won’t be nearly as clean nor as simple as a draft grade, GTFO Man will (hopefully) give us a better understanding of how well the Niners are doing at maneuvering through the draft to supplement their roster. The system is based around five factors that are integral to draft success; they’re listed below in order from most to least important:

1. Good Evaluation

2. Top Tier

3. Fills Need

4. Optimizes Slot Value

5. Manages Future Capital

Good Evaluation: Obviously, this is far and away the most important factor to winning the draft. Based on an entirely non-scientific guess, player quality is at least 75% of any success metric. You could be picking guys too early, not targeting positions of need, and making bad value swaps to move around draft slots, but if everyone you pick is a winner, so are you. For these purposes, this category encompasses the proper evaluation of everything from skill, size, and athleticism, to schematic and locker room fit, to injuries and off-the-field issues. It’s the whole package of how you grade a player.

Theoretical Example Pt. 1: The standard prospect rating system grades all players from 4.00 (not worth an invite to the 90-man training camp) to 9.00 (the second coming of God… unless that was Jesus. I’m not up on my theology). After evaluating all of the players they deem potentially draftable, the Niners will order them based on these grades and put them into a “big board” of prospects. 

Top Tier: When teams construct their big boards, they group players with similar overall grades and draft ranges (or where the team would feel comfortable drafting each player) into tiers. That way it’s easier for teams to determine value clusters (the range of slots/picks in the draft that are loaded with the most talent), maneuver around the areas that they consider sparse with value, and adapt on the fly if their priority targets come off the board earlier than expected. Teams watch as the players in their top-most tiers are plucked off the board, and — when its their own time to pick — they aim to select a player from the highest remaining tier. Thus, their commitment is to overall player value above all else.

Theoretical Example Pt. 2: Let’s say that after their big board is complete, the Niners believe there are four players with grades worthy of a top 5 selection. Those players make up their first tier. After them, they consider seven players to be worthy of a top 15 selection. Those players make up their second tier. After those eleven players, the Niners don’t have a single other player worthy of a top twenty pick, but their third tier (rated as players worthy of a pick anywhere from 20th selection to the end of the first round) has about twenty prospects. This is the draft’s first major “value cluster.”

Fills Need: The amazingly simple and just as amazingly impractical idea of “drafting best player available regardless of position” is often referenced as the mantra for many successful NFL franchises. But in reality, it isn’t. Yes, I believe drafting good players is more important than filling positional holes (hence why it is higher on this list), but entering the draft, which happens after the bulk of free agency, and not trying to patch the holes in your roster is just ignorant (and very late stage Trent Baalke-ish). 

Remember, short-term solutions and long-term investments. If you’re drafting only for the long haul, it’s easy to lose the forest through the trees. In an ideal draft, you absolutely want to address your positions of need. The difficulty is in doing so while adhering to your player tiers.

Theoretical Example Pt. 3: As the draft commences, the Niners (picking at #13) watch as players from their top two tiers are selected ahead of them. With each selection they’re hoping that a prospect from one of their lower tiers jumps into the top 12 picks because each time that happens one of the Niners’ top 11 players is pushed down the line, and the Niners’ chances of getting someone who matches value at pick #13 increase.

If by pick 13 the Niners have three dudes on the board who are in their top two tiers, they’re thrilled. They can now choose a player from the highest remaining tier (most likely their second tier) and — if they so choose — select the player from this tier who fits their greatest position of need. If none of the players in this tier fit positions of need, they could pull the trigger on best player available. If not, they can attempt to trade down so that they can match their slot value with player grade later in the draft.

Optimizes Slot Value: In the most basic terms imaginable, if you’re on the clock and don’t have anyone you want to pick, you should trade down. More specifically, if there are no players available who match the value of the draft slot you hold (i.e. you’re picking at the end of the first round but have no one left on your board with a first round grade), you should trade down. Additionally, if there’s a player you like but you strongly believe — based on other teams’ evaluations and their positional needs and draft slots — that you could select that player later in the draft, you should trade down and select that player later. On draft day, you always want your guys. But optimizing slot value means selecting them as late as physically possible.

Obviously that last situation is the hardest to get right. Teams come out of nowhere to reach on players all the time, and it’s not like the scouting world is open and prioritizes sharing between squads. If the player you like fits the value of the pick and you’re at all worried that you might lose out on him, you should just pick that player. That being said, you have year round scouting and personnel departments, endless notes on the historical draft records and positional needs of opposing teams, and a war room full of dozens of phones that are directly connected to the 31 other GMs in the NFL —phones are ringing 24/7 on draft day. You’re not exactly going in blind in figuring out what teams may like what prospects so you should have a good general idea of who may be available where.

Theoretical Example Pt. 4: By the time the Niners pick at #13, let’s say all of the players from their top two tiers have been selected. The next guy up on their big board is a wide receiver who tops their third tier and who they value at around the 20th pick in the draft. With seven slots in the middle of the first round too big a value loss for them to pick him at 13, and with the Niners strongly believing that no other team considers this guy worthy of anything earlier than a late first rounder, the Niners decide to trade down.

They flip #13 to move back to the 25th pick, accumulating a second and a fourth and a future pick from a team desperate to move up on a quarterback or left tackle that’s still on the board. At the 25th pick in the first round the Niners still think they can get this wideout, who is the 12th best player on their big board (remember, they only graded the top 11 players as worthy of a top 15 selection), plays a position of need, and would optimize slot value (getting a player worth ~20th overall pick at pick 25). And, seeing as the bottom of the first round is where they believe the first “value cluster” of this draft lies, they’re confident that — in the off-chance that their wideout of choice is gone by the time they pick again — they can still get someone of near equal value.

MANages Future Capital: Attacking championship windows is one thing but mortgaging your future by constantly packaging picks to trade up into the first round is quite another. Large roster sizes, eleven players on the field at once, regular substitutions, and a high-risk of injuries in the sport means that roster depth is much more important in the NFL than in any other professional sport. And in a hard-capped league the only way to obtain the high quantities of the young, low cost talent needed to fill out your depth chart is via the draft. 

Additionally, the best way to get more good players in each draft is to draft more players. While a seemingly oversimplified concept, it’s clearly true. Evaluating players is difficult and — just like any other endeavor — if you want to maximize your returns, you should encourage some level of risk-taking in the process. That means selecting some project players or ones with injury concerns, as long as you net enough successes to warrant the failures. No team is going to strike big on every single draft pick; the best way to ensure you get more hits on target is to invest in more rounds in the chamber.

This isn’t to say that trading down for picks is always the right move. Nor is it a condemnation of packaging picks to trade up and get a player who you think is a generational talent. You just can’t make a living off of the latter. Because if you do, it’s only a matter of time before you gut your roster from the inside out. And a team without young players makes for the longest and most arduous of rebuilds.

Theoretical Example Pt. 5: By trading down to accumulate picks, the Niners have already gained draft capital, and they’ve also added a future draft pick, arming them for next year’s draft (where the Niners are likely only getting a 5th round comp pick from the loss of Emmanuel Sanders)

So… now that you’re all well-versed in my made up means of draft pick evaluation, let’s look at three picks over the past few years and how they’d be evaluated within in this system:

Case Study #1
In 2019, the New York Giants select QB, Daniel Jones, Duke with the #6 overall pick

Good Evaluation: Too early to say. But I think he’ll be an NFL starter.

Top Tier: For most people, no, but the Giants were very high on Jones. He was either in their top tier or — as is common when drafting positionally scarcer players such as quarterbacks, tackles, and defensive ends — the Giants committed to reaching back a tier to get their quarterback of the future.

Fills Need: Yes. They had been riding the corpse of Eli Manning like a two-year extended cut of Swiss Army Man. So in this regard, they knocked this pick out of the park.

Optimizes Slot Value: This was the biggest misstep of this move. Even if Daniel Jones turns out to be great, the Giants picked him at #6 when they could have gotten him much much later than that. Jones was, by most people’s accounts, a late first round draft prospect while the Giants had both the #6 and the #17 pick in this draft. And sure, it’s always possible for a QB-desperate team to snatch up a rookie well before the value proposition makes sense, but look at the ten selections between the Giants’ two picks.

You have six teams that are locks NOT to be interested in a quarterback, a Miami team that clearly was trying to sit out this year’s QB class, and a Carolina team that had Cam Newton. This leaves two squads that could have gone quarterback. The Bengals, picking at #10, and the Redskins, who everyone knew loved Dwayne Haskins (and ended up picking him at #15). So realistically, you had one team (the Bengals) who MAY have wanted to go quarterback and could have picked Daniel Jones within the top ten. But they didn’t, instead selecting Jonah Williams, an offensive tackle.

It is INCREDIBLY within reason that the Giants could have gotten Daniel Jones with their 17th overall pick. Which not only means they left 11 slots of draft value on the board, but that they failed to address another major position of need with the player who — by most people’s accounts, including my own — was the best player remaining on the board at the time of the Giants’ first pick. That player, DE Josh Allen, would get picked 7th overall and go on to lead all rookies in sacks with 10.5 for the Jaguars. But that’s not all…

Manages Draft Capital: While the Giants lost the chance to pick a higher valued player or trade down to the (by the most incredibly conservative of estimates) ninth pick and accumulate more draft capital, that’s not where the ripple effects of this pick ended. As the Giants, still desperate for outside pass rush help, would then trade a third and a fifth (or fourth) round pick for Leonard Williams in a contract year, effectively making the same trade we made for Emmanuel Sanders but in the middle of a rebuild and for an underperforming player at a position that they could have filled just months prior. Holy shit.

Summary: While Jones seems likely to become an NFL starter, and — if he becomes a 10-year mainstay — this pick will certainly be deemed a good one down the road. But it’s apparent that the Giants flubbed their last two evaluations, leaving talent and opportunity cost on the table. Throw in the two picks lost for Leonard Williams at a position that they could have addressed with a better player via the draft, plus the financial cost of that decision (Williams is making $17M this year in the fifth-year option of his rookie deal), and the ripple effects of how the Giants mishandled this first round become abundantly clear.

Case Study #2
In 2018, the Indianapolis Colts traded down from #3, netting the #6, #37, and #49 picks in that year’s draft, as well as a second rounder in 2019. At #6 the Colts would select OG, Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame

Good Evaluation: Yes. Incredibly good. Since being drafted, Nelson has started every game for the Colts, being named First-team All-Pro in both of his years in the league. In 2019, he was PFF’s second best guard league-wide. The other players they got in this trade weren’t bad either…

At #37… OT, Braden Smith, Auburn: Since being drafted he’s started 31 of 32 games at right tackle, recording PFF grades of 71 and 79 in his first two seasons.

Then, after trading #49 to the Eagles for picks $53 and #169…

At #52… DE/OLB, Kemoko Turay, Rutgers: While raw in 2018, he exploded out of the gates in 2019, recording an incredible 91.3 PFF rating and 91.0 pass rushing score in just over 80 defensive snaps before going down on IR.

At #169… RB, Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss: A valuable rotational piece and one of the team’s better inside runners, Wilkins has played in 30 games across two years, recording 300+ rushing yards in each year while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

In 2019, at #34… CB, Rock Ya-Sin, Temple: While too early to tell what kind of player he’ll become, he started 13 games for the Colts in 2019 and had — by many pundits entering that year’s draft — a late first round grade.

Top Tier: Yes. Nelson was in everyone’s top tier of players. In fact, the only reason he was available at #6 was the same reason the Colts were able to trade out of #3. The difference in positional scarcity between guards and quarterbacks (the Jets picked QB Sam Darnold at #3).

Fills Need: Yes. The Colts had long neglected their offensive line, wasting years throwing picks at the same exact undersized receiver who would never see the field and getting Andrew Luck killed in the process. They needed to address the OL and they did (twice). Along with addressing their pass rush, backfield, and secondary (in 2019).

Optimizes Slot Value: Yes. Nelson was — at the time — considered a steal at #6. That narrative has only been reinforced in the past two years.

Manages Draft Capital: Dear lord, yes.

Summary: This is as big a home run as you could ask for, giving up three slots in draft position while still securing your prized prospect plus two additional starters at positions of need, a key rotational piece, and a potential breakout star as a pass rusher.

Case Study #3
In 2017, the San Francisco 49ers trade down from #2, netting the #3, #67, and #111 picks in that year’s draft, plus a 2018 third round selection. At #3, the Niners would select DE/DT, Solomon Thomas, Stanford

Good Evaluation: Here we can plainly see how getting your player evaluations right is much much more important than any other factor. While Thomas has started 28 games over three years, there’s no denying there were superior players drafted after him both at his position on the edge (Derek Barnett, Jonathan Allen, TJ Watt) and at other positions of need (DeShaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Marshon Lattimore).

As for the rest of the picks acquired in the trade, they were involved in a slew of additional trades that I won’t go over in depth, but these are (approximately) the other players we gained.

In 2017, at #31… LB, Reuben Foster, Alabama: Talented? Yes. But we all know how that turned out. This also is NOT a one-for-one trade by any means as we had packaged our second rounder with the Bears’ #111 to move up.

In 2018, at #44… WR, Dante Pettis, Washington: The jury’s out on this one, but the market’s bearish at the moment.

In 2018, at #70… LB, Fred Warner, BYU: Clearly the best player we got out of the trade. Is still improving and should be a mainstay for years to come.

In 2018, at #142… DB, DJ Reed, Kansas State: While he hasn’t gotten a ton of playing time, he’s shown promise as a nickel back and can at least moonlight some replacement snaps as a safety.

Top Tier: Yes. Many people were very high on Solomon Thomas, and I would venture to say he was a top five pick in the eyes of most NFL GMs. And when the Niners moved up into the back end of the first round to select Reuben Foster, they did so because he was a top five talent in their minds.

Fills Need: Yes. Edge rusher was a huge position of need. So were LB when we got Foster, WR when we got Pettis, and (unfortunately) LB once again when we drafted Warner.

Optimizes Slot Value: Yes. We got a boatload of picks that became four players to move down a SINGLE draft slot. And we got the player who we wanted at our original slot as well.

Manages Draft Capital: Yes.

Summary: It’s a pointless effort to look back on who a team “could have” drafted while armed with the knowledge of the present. But while the Niners did a marvelous job of milking value out of moving a single draft slot, it was their player evaluations — especially in 2017 — that prevented this from being an absolute slam dunk of a trade. Mahomes, Watson, Lattimore, Jamal Adams, and Christian McCaffrey all played positions of need and all went within ten picks after the Niners picked Solomon Thomas. While Ryan Ramczyk, many people’s top offensive tackle and a guy who has had 81+ PFF grades his entire career before being named a First-Team All-Pro and PFF’s top offensive lineman in 2019, went a single pick after Foster to end the first round. This trade was still a win. It could have been a blowout. Oh well…

Next up, a look at the Niners’ options in the first round…

Capital Gains and Championship Windows

More of this plz [Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group]

For the Niners, a Super Bowl runner-up strapped for cash whose main priority this off-season has been retaining its own players, the most exciting part of free agency is very likely over (unless Bill O’Brien wants to pick up the phone and swap DeShaun Watson for Matt Breida). But our moves, both big and small, have hinted at how the team’s brass plans to address our weaknesses and keep our championship window open as long as possible. 

Because in the glow of a massively successful season, it’s easy to forget how quickly those windows close. The Denver Broncos had four years of Peyton Manning before they fell into an abyss of very tall men pretending to be NFL quarterbacks. The Carolina Panthers had three years before their hybrid offense became too inefficient in the passing game and Cam too beat up in the running game. And the Seattle Seahawks, while still contender-adjacent, won only one Super Bowl despite having the cap space and young talent from selecting — over the course of three straight drafts — Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson (on a third round contract no less). 

Thus, the greatest optimism that comes from the DeForest Buckner trade is the fact that the Niners seem fully aware of that shrinking window. And they’re attempting to extend it with the most tried and true method — by being strict with your budget and increasing draft capital.

Entering the off-season, this was the Niners, in the far bottom-left quadrant of this draft capital x cap space chart.

This info will change a lot in the next ~48 hours, but here's where teams' offseason resources sit right now-ish.

Data is courtesy Tankathon and Over the Cap and uses @fbgchase's draft pick valuation model. pic.twitter.com/xTwKPwFa0n

— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) March 16, 2020

That was before the DeFo trade. And while we won’t be creeping much higher in terms of salary cap space any time soon, we’ve now got a lot more chips to deal with as we approach the draft (and that means, for selfish reasons, I get to justify spending more time prepping for it).

So let’s take a look at our latest moves and see if they can shed some light on what our plan might be come April 23rd.

Farewell: Emmanuel Sanders

While the extensions of Armstead and Ward seemed to make Emmanuel Sanders’ departure a foregone conclusion, he officially signed elsewhere on Friday. Yes, it sucks that we gave up a third round pick and dropped 17 slots between rounds four and five for a half-year rental. And yes, we will never know if a bidding war put us in that position or if the two picks were a product of us bidding against ourselves (a phenomenon known in scientific circles as “Trubisky-ing”). Either way, it’s totally fair to blame the Patriots for giving up a second rounder for Mohamed Sanu just earlier that day. But ultimately, I do think we needed him to get anywhere as far as we did last year. And, as I’m sure I’ve already said way too many times, if he isn’t overthrown in the fourth quarter, there is NO discussion on whether or not he was worth the value we gave up.

To make matters worse, Emmo was very truthful when he said he wanted to play 1-2 more years and was focused on winning another championship above getting a big payday. Because he signed a two-year $16M deal with the Saints. That gives a conference rival who has long been in search of a second option one of the better No.2’s in the league and does so at a bargain price. As for the Niners, while the writing has been on the wall for a minute now, this assures us of one thing: we will be drafting a wideout this year.

Best of luck to you, Emmo. You honestly balled out as well as anyone could have asked for. And while I think Sean Payton is a bit of a tool, I really do like Drew Brees, and — excluding the Niners, of course — will likely be rooting for the Saints over any other NFC contenders.

OL shuffling

Shon Coleman, last season’s top reserve tackle who went on IR before the season even started, returns on a one-year ~$900K contract. This is a move that was likely done because (A) the updated collective bargaining agreement allows one additional offensive lineman to dress on game days, (B) Coleman, despite his age and lack of playing time to this point, still has decent potential, and (B) the staff is planning to give all-purpose swingman Daniel Brunskill a shot at a starting position on the inside.

That starting position would almost certainly be right guard, as Mike Person, last year’s starter (and man whose name is amazingly generic), was just released.  Person, 32, was a solid run blocker who was familiar with Shanahan’s scheme and who served us well considering his price tag and journeyman career. That being said, he was also our very obvious weak spot in pass protection (according to PFF, he ranked 51st out of 61 qualifying guards in pass block efficiency), and — with his age and the lack of guaranteed money on his contract, the Niners decided to move forward and free up $2.5M in cap space. For Person, who was originally drafted by the Niners before getting cut, and who Shanahan once replaced in Atlanta with Alex Mack, it’s always the bridesmaid, never the bride. We thank you for your service, but it was time to move on.

The Niners sniffed around about former Bronco Connor McGovern, who was one of PFF’s top pass protecting centers last year and also has experience at guard, but he ultimately signed a three-year $27M contract with the Jets (a figure that the Niners surely were NOT planning to match). While McGovern likely would have been both a starting guard and/or an insurance policy / 2021 replacement for Weston Richburg, the Niners instead settled on Tom Compton, a part-time starter for the Jets. Based on that description alone, I can assure you, I have never seen this guy play a snap of football. 

Compton is another journeyman, and — according to PFF — one that actually graded out considerably worse than Person in 2019. My guess, on literally zero evidence, is that Compton is a guy whose athletic profile somewhat matches what Shanahan is looking for, who the Niners believe can perform better in their system than he did in New York, and who is being brought in entirely for depth. I would also be shocked if his one-year deal, worth “up to” $3M is anything close to $3M against the cap. I would assume he’s getting paid closer to the minimum, and his contract is loaded with NLTBE incentives that can only be achieved if he earns a starting role. 

Ben Garland, back up center, run blocker extraordinaire, and questionable-to-okay pass protector was also re-signed to a one-year deal worth $2.25M. While the terms of that contract aren’t available, I would believe — after he made $800K last year — that, like Compton, some of that sticker price would come in incentives that are unlikely to affect the 2020 cap.

So to round up this thrilling write-up on backup offensive linemen, the Niners have signed three one-year deals with very little guaranteed money while also retaining Brunskill on a minimum ERFA contract (a low rate which they have two more years of if they so choose). That likely means three things: (1) Brunskill, who played well everywhere and only struggled in his first career start at guard against Aaron Donald, will be given every chance to start at right guard this year, (2) we’re positioning ourselves for more shuffling along the offensive line in the next few years, and (3) we’re adding an offensive lineman at some point in this draft.

Short-term fixes and long-term investments

So now, with the smoke cleared and free agency likely over (for our purposes at least), we can get a clearer picture of what the Niners need to address in the draft, and — like always — it’s a layered set of immediate and long-term needs. When we were building towards a championship window, it made sense to lean heavier towards those long-term value, investing in foundational pieces and developmental projects for the coming years. But now that we’re currently smack dap in the middle of our championship window, keeping that window open as long as possible requires finding as many moves as possible that can simultaneously address both short and long-term concerns.

For example, Joe Staley is 36. And after coming back from injury last year, he played outstanding football. But he’s still 36. At best we should expect him to run out his current contract (two more years). So, if a player falls to us high in the draft who we see as a future starting tackle, we might select that player as a long-term investment (yes, in the NFL, one to two years away can be considered “long term”). But we are chip chasing now, and that player doesn’t move the needle as a third or fourth string tackle. But if he could start his career on the interior, perhaps learning the ropes as a guard or — while less likely — a center, then they could also be addressing a short-term concern as well.

Ultimately, I think former GM Trent Baalke’s inability to invest in both the short and long-term was — among other things — a major reason for why he flamed out. While the Niners were riding a dominant defense and run game to three straight NFC championships, Baalke got lots of the credit. And rightfully so. His 2011 draft class (rookies in Harbaugh’s first year) had Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter, and Bruce Miller, and that influx of talent — along with veteran additions like Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner — powered the team to three straight NFC Championship Games. But Baalke became too obsessed with the future, too overconfident in risky long-term investments, and too complacent with the idea that present-day success would perpetuate forever. 

Baalke’s next three drafts were headlined by AJ Jenkins, LaMichael James, ACL rehabbers Tank Carradine and Marcus Lattimore, Carlos Hyde, and Jimmie Ward. Yes, Eric Reid was in that crop and was a good fit for the remaining Harbaugh years, but even Ward — and future high picks like Arik Armstead — took multiple years to mature into major contributors. And long before those picks of his did pan out, the championship contending corps of the team was too old, there were too many holes that needed patching, and — of course — the relationship between Baalke and Harbaugh had soured beyond any potential reconciliation.

In short, no matter how good you think you are or how talented your roster is, you need to keep making moves. That’s the only way to sustain winning in the NFL. So our needs entering the draft, on a spectrum of short-term to long-term would look something like this:

Wide Receiver - Everyone and their mother wants the Niners picking a wideout at #13 overall. Sanders is gone, and despite the draft capital we’ve invested in the position in recent years, the only two wideouts we can truly count on in 2021 are Deebo and Bourne. Luckily, this draft class is stacked with receivers. The biggest question becomes if we target a more prototypical No.1 early or tap the depth of the class later with a co-star to pair with Deebo in a more specific role (outside deep receiver, speedy slot, etc.).

Interior OL - I’m bullish on Brunskill and how he’ll perform at guard, but — despite his promising first year — it’s far too early to tell what he could become as a full-time player at a position in which he’s had two career starts. The Niners showed their cards a bit by looking into McGovern, and with Compton and Garland on one-year deals, and the injury-prone Richburg’s restructured contract allowing the Niners the financial flexibility to — if needed — release him in 2021 while saving $3M on the books, getting a guy with center/guard flexibility and the ability to play soon would be nice insurance in case any number of things don’t go our way in 2020. The dream candidate? A future center (long term) who can at least make a push to play immediately at guard (present).

Secondary - While our secondary’s entire two deep returns this year, things will look a lot different a year from now. Moseley has two accrued NFL seasons, so he can be retained on an ERFA rate for one more year, but 2021 will see contracts up for Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, Jaquiski Tartt, and Ahkello Witherspoon. It would be smart to start adding players now who can work their way into sub-packages now and have starter potential as soon as next year.

Offensive Tackle - I wouldn’t put it past Joe Staley to play out his contract at a high level, but with the dearth of tackles around the league and this year’s talent-rich draft class at the position, it could be smart to invest in a future bookend to pair with McGlinchey. Unless of course that player is already on roster. Justin Skule — while protected by game-planning — performed mostly well when thrust into playing time as a rookie, but he likely projects as more of a third tackle than a long-term starter. Shon Coleman was a former third round pick with developmental upside who flashed well in Cleveland, but he’s yet to play a snap for the Niners in two years on the roster. He’s got potential and is known as an incredibly hard worker (he did win a two-and-a-half year battle with leukemia in college after all), but he’s at best a dark horse candidate for the position. As stated above, a guy who can play now inside and later outside could be a nice addition.

Tight End - The Niners kicked the tires on Austin Hooper before he signed with the Browns, so it’s clearly a position they’re looking at. Shanahan loves his 21 and 12 personnel groups so it’s not like the guy will go unused. And if the Niners are going to be investing big money in Kittle in the form of a fat extension, they’d prefer if he didn’t take so much of a beating on a snap-to-snap basis. Plus, there were just too many times where Kittle — one of their best receivers — had to stay back and help in pass pro on crucial downs. Adding a capable receiver and pass catcher could lighten the load. Practice squad-er Daniel Helm is a good athlete and has shown promise, but is he ready for a real role in 2020? Also, Delanie Walker is a free agent. Just saying… This is a spot the Niners could address in the mid rounds of the draft.

We’re now officially into draft season. And the posts will be comin in HAWT.

Oh, shit! Breaking down the first two days of 49ers free agency

Before dominating some poor interior lineman no doubt [Ezra Shaw/Getty Images]

There were always questions about how the Niners would free up the cap space necessary to retain and extend their core players. But after a flurry of moves on Monday, those questions have largely been answered.

Even if those answers came in shocking fashion.

Let’s get to it.

NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement

I won’t go in-depth into this deal (at least not right now), but — for free agent and draft purposes — the most important element of the new CBA is that while the players will get 47% of league revenue in 2020, that hops to 48% in 2021.

That may not seem like a lot, but with the continual growth in revenue from media deals, new stadiums, etc. the NFL has seen a salary cap increase of $10M or more in each of the past seven years. So, if the NFL’s next media deal is on par with its current one, the 2021 cap will see a one-time spike.

While that doesn’t mean a lot for staying under the 2020 cap, it does put a team like the Niners in a position where they would preferably retain their core players this year instead of next (as salaries should be looked at as % of cap spent rather than pure money). It also means there will be a lot of back-loaded contracts this off-season.

Okay, now let’s look at the deals (in chronological order)…

Re-signed Arik Armstead to a five-year $85M contract

Bringing back Armstead was thought to be a major priority this off-season, and while some may have seen that as a smokescreen or an attempt to maintain leverage in the case of a tag-and-trade situation, the Niners showed they were serious early on Monday.

We’ve already talked a bit about the risks of re-signing Armstead to a long deal and how — despite those risks — there was enough evidence pointing to 2019 as a season where he was coming into his own rather than balling out for a payday that such an extension would make sense. So in short, despite 2019 being his only strong pass rushing season (he has always been a great run defender), I’m a fan of the extension.

On paper, the contract is fair and (in stark contrast to the sticker shock of past Niners contracts like Kwon Alexander’s) openly team friendly. Armstead is averaging $17M a year over the course of the contract, a figure that makes him the 11th-highest paid defensive lineman in the NFL. Since he’s the most recent defensive lineman to sign a long-term deal, that ranking will certainly drop in the ensuing days, but — as it stands now — he’s making less per year than the 2018 signings of teammate Dee Ford ($17.1M), Trey Flowers ($18M), Frank Clark ($20.8M), or DeMarcus Lawrence ($21M), and is within $1 million a year of guys like Leonard Williams ($17M), Olivier Vernon ($17M), Geno Atkins ($16.3M), and Kawann Short ($16.1M). It’s also worth noting that Armstead is only 26 years old, and it’s well within reason to expect him to improve over the next few years. But even if he’s topped out, as long as he stays around the productivity level he set in 2019, this is a high value deal.

The salary cap structure of Armstead’s contract is back-loaded, speaking both to our limited cap space this year and the spike to come in 2021. His cap hits for the next five years are as follows:

2020 - $6M

2021 - $12.5M

2022 - $20M

2023 - $21.7M

2024 - $23.3M

But Armstead’s contract can’t be looked at in a vacuum, as his re-signing was clearly done in conjunction with the Niners’ next move…

Traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts for the 13th Overall Pick in the 2020 Draft

It’s tough to watch Buckner, who was the rock of our defense through the garbage years and one of the most consistent and durable defensive linemen in all of football throughout his career, get swapped out for a pick when all the talk leading up to this was how he would be a priority extension for the Niners. But… when the emotions settle and you look at it practically, the deal makes a lot of sense for both parties.

The Colts — a team rife with cap space that has been critiqued in the past for being too thrifty in their off-season spending — get a building block along their defensive line, a disruptive three-tech who can help offset some of their lower achieving players up front and a guy who gives them a young stud at each level of their defense. And — with a second-best $85M in cap space — they can afford it, signing DeFo to a contract that averages a whopping $21M per year over five years.

We’ve talked about it before, but ultimately the Niners could not afford to pay big money to three defensive linemen at once (with a fourth due up in a few years when Bosa can be extended). And while that talk was centered more around next off-season and whether or not Dee Ford would be retained if he wasn’t healthier in 2020, the Niners made the move now. They flipped Buckner while his value was high and they had contract leverage, figuring that an additional $4M in annual cap space, a mid-first round pick, and the outside-in versatility of Armstead were worth more than the (probably second round) pick they could have gotten for an Armstead tag-and-trade and DeFo’s longer track record of health and performance.

Make no mistake, this trade makes our defensive line worse, particularly in passing downs when the DeFo and Armstead combo on the inside was wildly unfair to the interior linemen of this world. But with DJ Jones’ emergence as a one-tech, with Jullian Taylor and Kevin Givens both young and showing tons of promise on the interior, and with Solomon Thomas — in the last year of his rookie contract — finally able to play his best natural fit position as a three-tech, the Niners are in as good a position as any team could be to mitigate the damage of Buckner’s loss.

Because ultimately, while I love DeFo, there are AT MOST four interior defensive linemen who could argue that they’re worth over $20M a year (Aaron Donald, Grady Jarrett, Fletcher Cox, and a healthy Chris Jones). And the only one of them currently making that money (and the only one who you are absolutely sure is worth it) is Aaron Donald. $21M a year is simply too much for DeFo, and as we added talent on the edges and shifted to the Wide 9 scheme, Buckner’s incredible physical gifts at his size were less on display as in his previous years. Frankly, his position just became a bit less valuable than before.

The move immediately frees up $12M in cap space and gives us the 13th overall pick in a historically good and deep draft class for wide receivers (and a class where many mock drafts don’t have a wideout going until #12). We are now right in the thick of this wideout class and still have our 31st overall pick, which — unless someone slides drastically — I expect us to package and trade down to accumulate picks in the second and later rounds.

It also shows that Lynch and Shanahan — while committed to building the team from the locker room out — are also willing to make the unsentimental decisions if they think it’s best for the long-term future of the team. That’s something that — to this point at least — has been untested, and something that they’ll need to do each year to keep us in contention.

But as fans, we’re allowed to be sentimental, and it’s tough to see Buckner, who helped anchor the squad on and off the field through some dark times and was a key component in getting us back to the Super Bowl, get shipped out of town. Even if the move makes sense.

Happy Trails DeFo. Best of luck in Indianapolis.

Re-signed Jimmie Ward to a three-year $28.5M contract

Last night, the Niners locked up 10 of their 11 defensive starters from last year by giving Ward a three-year deal with an average annual salary of $9.5M. That ranks him 13th highest-paid amongst safeties, narrowly edging Adrian Amos’ 2019 deal but falling well short of the deals handed out to Eddie Jackson ($14.6M), Kevin Byard ($14.1M), Tyrann Mathieu ($14M), or Earl Thomas ($13.8M) last off-season.

Like Armstead, Ward’s contract is backloaded. The cap hits for his three year deal are as follows:

2020 - $4.6M

2021 - $11.6M

2022 - $12.3M

It’s a good deal. If Ward plays anything like he did last year then we’ve got him at quite the discount. And if his significant injury concerns pop up once again… well, at least we have Tarvarius Moore behind him. As well as a contract that has only an $8M signing bonus and thus — if his availability and/or play require it — the flexibility to release him in 2022 and save $10M off the cap. I don’t know what availability / health bonuses and clauses are put into this contract, but — given Ward’s extensive injury history — I would hope there are many.

This also gives us a bit of consistency moving forward with our secondary. As mentioned before, while our top four cornerbacks and top three safeties are now all locked up for this season, 2021 has Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, and Akhello Witherspoon all as unrestricted free agents (plus Emmanuel Moseley as an ERFA). There could be a lot of turnover in the near future, but at least re-signing Ward means we have someone locked up beyond this year.

Re-signed Ronald Blair to a one-year deal

As recently as this morning, Blair was said to be linked to the Browns — where former Niners coaches Joe Woods and Chris Kiffin now reside — but apparently that’s no longer the case. According to Ian Rapoport, Blair will be returning to the bay on a one-year prove-it deal, with the idea that he can play well and cash-in on the free agent market in 2021.

This is a major win for both parties, as Blair had really come into his own in 2019 as an outstanding second-line defensive end who also had the heft and ability to slide inside. With Buckner gone, expect to see even more of Blair at tackle, particularly on passing downs. And while he didn’t play enough snaps to qualify for end-of-season rankings, Blair’s 77.5 PFF rating through 8.5 games would have ranked him 25th in the league among edge defenders.

From Blair’s POV, while he had a career year in 2019, jumping ship to another team and scheme while coming off an ACL injury was bound to limit his market. Matt Maiocco has noted that other teams may have been wary because the coronavirus didn’t allow them to bring Blair into their facility for a medical checkup, and — likewise — Blair may have been discouraged with the thought of complicating his rehab with a timetable and a process that is entirely unpredictable as the country continues to deal with the effects of the current pandemic. With the Niners he can continue his rehab with the people he knows on a set schedule, and he can try and leverage a strong 2020 into a more lucrative free agent contract. And, since he is an edge rusher and those contracts are always high, that could mean a substantial compensatory pick for us in 2022 if he does indeed net a big payday.

Re-signing Blair was an under-the-radar priority move, one made even more important once Buckner was traded. Hopefully we can also retain Damontre Moore, whose 75.0 PFF rating (albeit through only two games) would have ranked him 28th in the league among edge defenders. Moore doesn’t have the versatility nor the two-way ability of Blair. But he is a pass rushing presence off the edge, and due to the fact that he was unemployed until midway through the season, we’ll hopefully be able to re-sign him for cheap.

Restructured Jerick McKinnon’s contract

Like Blair’s contract, the details of McKinnon’s restructuring have yet to be publicly released. But it’s safe to say that he’ll be getting paid far less than his would-be cap hit of $8.6M and likely less than the $4.6M that they could have saved in cap space if they were simply to cut him. With the amount of money we’ve paid out to him and the fact that we stuck with him (and paid him) through last year when we really didn’t have to, I wouldn’t be shocked if he takes something closer to the veteran minimum. 

And while that may sound like an unreasonable loyalty discount, a running back who has missed both of the past two seasons to knee injuries is highly unlikely to net much more (if any more) than that on the free market. Besides, McKinnon should know that the best way to rejuvenate his career and his value is to play within Shanahan’s system in a running back-by-committee role where he doesn’t have to shoulder a huge amount of punishment.

While it would be unreasonable at this point to expect McKinnon to contribute given the past two years, if he can return to form, he is still the Niners’ best pass-catching back. So perhaps that long-awaited marriage of receiving ability and Shanahan’s scheming can finally come to fruition in 2020. And if not, at the very least this restructuring will save us more money than if we were to release him.

Bourne and Breida Given Second Round RFA Tenders

This afternoon, the Niners tendered both Kendrick Bourne and Matt Breida with the second-round RFA tender. That means both players will make $3.3M in 2020 unless another team offers them a better deal. Then, if we don’t match, that team would have to give us a second round pick. For either player, that seems highly unlikely, but especially for Breida, who was a total non-factor down the stretch last year. 

Perhaps this is a CJ Beathard-esque situation, where the Niners don’t want to give up a player who they consider to be an NFL caliber athlete for nothing. But with a tight salary cap, a crowded backfield, and Mostert (who himself is only counting $3.2M against the cap in 2020) as the clear bell cow, $3.3M is a lot to spend on someone who could be a fourth or even fifth back in 2020.

Maybe they’re trying to trade him? Perhaps to a team who has the cap space and is willing to give up a late round pick? I dunno, but tendering Breida seems a bit odd.

The Rest

• The Niners continue to work on a contract extension for George Kittle. That is likely their top priority at the moment.

• With contracts given out to Armstead and Ward, I don’t expect Emmanuel Sanders to get re-signed. The third and fourth round picks we gave up for a half year rental was a steep price, but given we never would have gotten to the Super Bowl without him (and that in said Super Bowl he ran a dirty route to free up from double coverage for a would-be game-winning touchdown), I still believe it was worth it. If he’s not signing here, root for him to get PAID, as a hefty contract — in conjunction with our likely lack of activity in free agency — should net us a third or fourth round compensatory pick in 2021. 

• I would still expect Marquise Goodwin to get moved one way or another. But with this draft class of wideouts and his underwhelming performance given his contract, the most likely scenario for that move is through biting the dead cap and cutting him.

• Tevin Coleman remains on the books for $4.9M, none of it guaranteed. He’s another name to watch, although the tenuous situation with Matt Breida means the Niners are likely in no hurry to make a decision on Coleman.

• So long Levine Toilolo, our jumbo blocking tight end who ran a pass route on only 33 of his 232 offensive snaps last year. He joins 2019 Niners’ draft pick Kaden Smith in New York. As evidenced by our reported interest in Austin Hooper this off-season, don’t be surprised if we sign another tight end to replace him.

• I’m not going to do a real free agency preview since we don’t have the cap space to make any big moves, but Taylor Gabriel is a potential name to watch. He had success with Shanahan in Atlanta, and could fill in slot snaps for Emmanuel Sanders as well as provide insurance in case Trent Taylor / Jalen Hurd continue to be hampered by injuries. 

Elsewhere

• The DeAndre Hopkins - David Johnson trade is the worst NFL trade in recent memory: David Johnson, and his albatross contract, was a clear candidate for a Brock Osweiler-esque salary dump (where you give up a player AND a pick so someone else can shoulder the cap burden) or — at best — a deal where you give up Johnson for a late round pick, with the agreement that the Cards are biting a large chunk of his salary. Instead, the Cardinals swap Johnson, a second rounder, and a future fourth rounder for Hopkins and a fourth rounder. Truly absurd. Bill O’Brien has absolutely no idea what he’s doing as a GM.

• Vikings double down: By giving a contract extension to Cousins and trading Stefon Diggs for a bevy of picks, the Vikings are clearly trying to make their roster a bit more balanced, likely using the picks and leftover cash from the Diggs trade to fill in holes like on their interior line or at cornerback. That being said, they’re also relying on Cousins to play like he did in the second half of the season (and not the playoffs lol), despite the loss of his most dynamic pass catching target and the offensive playcaller who settled Cousins in the first place. Sure, Gary Kubiak is a proven commodity and could maintain Cousins’ success, but the Vikings are still doubling down on Cousins. Which… yeah.

• Jaguars fire sale: Speaking of Brock Osweiler-esque salary dumps… does anyone want Nick Foles? Anyone at all? After getting injured then going 0-4 in four starts, the Jaguars are handing the keys over to resident deviant Gardnew Minshew and are now stuck with Foles on a $22M annual salary and an insane cap hit of $34M (!!!) if they were to cut him this off-season. And after getting rid of AJ Bouye for a fourth round pick, Calais Campbell for a fifth round pick, and Yannick Ngakoue currently asking for a trade, they may start 2020 with only three defensive starters from their 2018 AFC Championship game squad. As I’ve said before, the Jaguars are the blueprint for a talented team who simply cannot sustain winning because they lack the proper culture and management.

• Ravens continue to do what they always do: Getting Calais Campbell for a fifth round pick? Swapping a fourth round pick and their third tight end for a second and a fifth? This is a team that understands how to play the market and is constantly making proper value bets (except for that Joe Flacco contract lol)

Off-Season Roster Outlook: Defense

Just looking for an excuse to use a pic in these unis [Nhat V. Meyer / Bay Area News Group]

While our offense is (relatively) simple this off-season, our defense is very much the opposite. Starting with the core of our defensive resurgence…

Defensive Line

Take a breath. There’s a lot going on here.

Every defensive line coach ever talks about rotating defensive linemen to keep them fresh. But this year, under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek and the newly installed wide-nine scheme, we actually did that. Well, at least until we couldn’t any longer. That depth and rotation was crucial to our defensive turnaround and is something that we’ll need to keep going if we want to continue playing this scheme at this level.

Bosa, Buckner, Armstead, Jones, Ford, Blair, Thomas, and Day all had major rotational roles. The same could be said for Jullian Taylor, who — in the six games that he was healthy — played over 30% of defensive snaps four times. There was also Damontre Moore, who was only on roster and healthy for two games but averaged 37% of defensive snaps between them. And then you have the scores of reserves who were either promoted from the practice squad, activated from IR, or signed off the street to compensate for our huge wave of injuries by the end of the season. Let’s start with those late adds and go backwards up the depth chart, if for no other reason than so we can paint a slightly cleaner picture.

Earl Mitchell has already retired again. Anthony Zettel was added simply because we lacked bodies outside. If he gets brought back it’s on a minimum deal after the draft.

Jullian Taylor and Kevin Givens have a ton of potential inside, and both will be back. Taylor has two years left on his contract and is only making $685K in 2020. Givens was an undrafted free agent practice squad promotion who played in a single game. He’s raw but certainly worth locking up on a cheap multi-year contract. Both outplayed Kentavius Street, who has two years left on his contract to prove that he can shake the injuries that plagued him since college. If he doesn’t, his dead cap number is trivial and he could be a training camp cut.

Staying on the inside, Sheldon Day is a UFA. Despite his moderate snap counts, I’d have to assume the Niners are hoping some combination of Taylor/Givens/Street can replace his production, but with higher upside. D.J. Jones has one year left on a great deal, making just over $700K in 2020. As for Solomon Thomas, despite what is sure to be a push from some fans, there are no potential cap gains from cutting him. As a former No. 3 overall pick, his contract is fully guaranteed. There’s a chance we could split the difference of his nearly $9M cap hit if we were to trade him, but that too is something that would only be done after we’ve sorted through our situation on the DL.

On the edges, Damontre Moore — yet another AAF standout — was a mid-season add but a valuable pass rusher when he was on the field. He should be cheap to retain. Ronald Blair, a super underrated loss who went down to a torn ACL in week 10, probably won’t have a robust market given his injury. While he may not be able to contribute early, locking him up to something team-friendly would be a good way to sustain depth at the end position. He’s as good as it gets in terms of second-wave defensive ends. Losing both of those guys to IR around the exact same time really hurt us. Having either of them to spell Bosa/Ford in the Super Bowl could have been a game changer. According to PFF, both Moore and Blair had higher overall grades than Dee Ford, which… again, massive grain of salt, but they’re very good players.

Now, onto our starters (well, assuming a passing down, as no respect to DJ Jones).

Nick Bosa. Yeah, he’s not getting cut.

Dee Ford had the large majority of his guaranteed money front-loaded, a classic Paraag Marathe escape hatch that would allow us to move on from him without a huge dead cap hit if his play dipped or his injuries persisted. And while he was hampered by injuries this year, when he was on the field…

Dee Ford has been on the field for 172 pass plays this season for the #49ers and the team has pressured the QB on 32% of those plays per @sportradar. With Ford out, the pressure rate drops to 24.8%

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) January 6, 2020

49ers could be looking at getting back Dee Ford, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander back this week.

With Ford on the field, the 49ers defense has posted a 16.2% sack rate as opposed to a 5.4% sack rate with him off the field.

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) January 7, 2020

Bosa in particular really benefited from Ford’s presence. According to PFF, Bosa’s pass rush productivity rating was 10.3 on the season (a close second in the NFL behind Za’Darius Smith). In weeks without Ford, that dipped to 7.7 (19th in the league). In weeks with Ford, that rose to 11.9, which would have been first in the NFL by a VERY large margin.

Injuries aside, Ford was monumentally important to our defense. He’ll be retained on his current contract.

Next up is DeForest Buckner, whose sacks may have dipped a bit this season but who nabbed his first All-Pro selection in 2019. He’s started 63 of 64 possible games in his four years on the Niners and — in all four years — has led the team in snaps along the defensive line. Going into the fifth year option of his rookie contract, he’s in store for a massive extension.

While that extension will clearly be a hit to the salary cap over the long haul, it could actually lead to a cap discount this year. As a former top ten pick, his fifth year option rate is equal to the top 10 highest paid players at his position. So he’s on the books for $14.36M in 2020. Even if DeFo gets something in the $16.2M/year range (as estimated by Spotrac), which would make him the 5th-highest paid DT by annual salary, the contract structure could easily have a first year that’s closer to a $10M cap hit, thus giving us a bit more room to make other moves. Such as…

Re-signing Arik Armstead. It seems like getting a deal done with Armstead is the front office’s number one priority, and Armstead is certainly interested in continuing to play for the hometown favorite team that drafted him, so right now the tea leaves are saying that a deal gets done. But what would that look like?

Last year, six defensive linemen (including Dee Ford) signed contracts that would pay them an average annual salary over $17M. And both Frank Clark ($20.8M) and DeMarcus Lawrence ($21M) eclipsed the $20M/yr mark. I wouldn’t expect Armstead to set any new precedents, but determining his contract is further complicated by his very unique role in the Niners’ system.

Per Matt Barrows and David Lombardi of The Athletic:

A new deal for Armstead may be tricker. He’s coming off his best season by far, is due to be an unrestricted free agent and doesn’t fall easily into any category. He’s a base down defensive end who plays the run very well and who shifts inside to defensive tackle on passing downs. All 10 sacks in the regular season came while playing that spot.

The 49ers likely might be wary of inking a player coming off his lone standout season to a multi-year deal. Armstead, however, would be very difficult to replace. Without him, the team’s best in-house option would be a combination of Thomas and Blair — if Blair is re-signed — and neither player comes close to duplicating the 6-7 Armstead’s power.

There’s also two red flags to a contract extension of this type, and while — in the case of Armstead — I don’t think either will be a major issue, they’re both worth mentioning:

Injuries: Since 2016, Armstead has had foot, hand, and labrum surgeries, missing 22 games across his second and third seasons. Since then, he’s started all 16 games in back-to-back years. Hand injuries are pure flukes, and the foot injury was a minor cleanup. The labrum could be troublesome but that was back in 2016, so since there hasn’t been any flare ups, I wouldn’t worry about it. In terms of durability, Armstead is no Buckner, but I (knock on wood) don’t think injuries should be a major concern moving forward.

One Year Wonder, Contract Year Bump: A defensive lineman with little pass rush production who then blows up in their contract year is perhaps THE classic red flag of free agency, but I think it’s an overstated concern in the case of Armstead.

First off, that bump often happens from a speedy edge rusher who was raw out of college, finally put things together, had some luck with QB hits converting to sacks at an alarming rate, and who had motivation or consistency issues leading up to their contract year.

While Armstead was raw out of college, he’s a power rusher not a speed rusher, has never seemed to have motivation issues, has been a consistent force against the run for years, and he’s actually been on the wrong side of QB hits-to-sacks luck in previous years (his 29 QB hits over four years should have equated closer to 12 sacks, but instead of he netted only 7).

Further helping his cause, Armstead was drafted into a 3-4 system, where — according to PFF — he led the nation in pass rush productivity in both 2014 and 2015 (albeit with a much lower snap count than most others on the leaderboard and with very little sack production). He lost the majority of his first year in Saleh’s system, was a strong run defender in 2018, and then — with a new coach, new scheme, and a new role where he slid inside on passing downs — finally broke through as a pass rusher in 2019. All of that will be repeated in 2020. Finally, I would also posit that — given how many snaps he lined up on the edge where he is not as much of a pass rush threat — his pass rushing impact as an interior linemen is actually underrated.

Also worth mentioning, if Armstead walks in free agency, we are almost certainly looking at a third round comp pick in 2021 to offset his loss. He’s an edge rusher, they get paid, and if Armstead leaves his hometown favorite team to play somewhere else, he must REALLY be getting paid.

So yeah, I don’t have any issues locking up Armstead on a 3-5 year deal at somewhere in the $17-18M range. In a vacuum that makes total sense. But when you look at the fact that we could theoretically have three different players costing around ~$17M just on our defensive line (with Bosa only cheaper because he’s on a rookie deal), there are obvious questions about long-term sustainability.

Which I’ll get to later.

Linebackers

On the field, the big ticket acquisition of Kwon Alexander lasted 8 regular season games and a few up-and-down playoff performances, but the impact Kwon had on the locker room was immense. From the first snaps of training camp, he helped establish the energy and personality of the Niners’ defensive resurgence. That not only led to a huge leap in play from Fred Warner, but really seemed to be a case where a special leader lifted all boats.

And while it's easy to stress someone’s “intangibles” and “leadership” considering there are no ways to causally attach those qualities to wins on the field, Kwon’s locker room impact was shown repeatedly throughout the year. Despite being ejected in week 1 against the Bucs, Kwon was given the game ball. When asked who the team’s MVP was after the regular season, Nick Bosa named Kwon, despite the latter missing half of said season. And when it came to defensive coaches naming the team’s most inspirational player, Kwon took home the award.

In 2020, it’s clear that Kwon isn’t going anywhere, as he — like Richburg — restructured his contract mid-season to give the team more 2020 cap space, lowering his base salary below $1M and his cap hit to $4.5M, while making it financially impossible to cut him this year ($14.5M in dead cap).

Elsewhere, Fred Warner had a career year and is entering the third year of a third round rookie contract. He’s cheap. Greenlaw became the latest 5th round difference maker on our squad, starting half of the games and actually finishing the season as our best run defender amongst linebackers and one of the surest tacklers in the game. And while both Kwon and Warner had their tackling issues at times, Greenlaw’s four missed tackles on 96 attempts was good for second-best in the NFL in terms of tackling efficiency (behind only Corey Littleton).

Both Greenlaw and undrafted free agent Azeez Al-Shair, who played well when forced into action and will only improve now that he’s a full year removed from ACL surgery, are on incredibly team friendly deals. Together, they’ll barely cost $1M in 2020.

Elijah Lee is an RFA. He may be brought back, but if he is I’d expect it to be later in the off-season. I don’t think he gets tendered. Rounding out the linebackers, Mark Nzeocha plays only special teams, is making $1.5M with zero guaranteed cash, and would theoretically be a potential cut candidate. But… he is pretty good on special teams, and you can only deplete those units so much.

Looking to the future, in the 2021 season, the combination of Warner, Greenlaw, and Al-Shair COMBINED will make $2.3M. But for a team that only starts two linebackers and only uses three, how do we employ what could be four starting caliber linebackers in 2020 and beyond?

Again, I’ll get to that at the end.

Secondary

Let’s start with the cornerbacks.

Richard Sherman, fresh off an All-Pro selection that saw him hit a number of contract bonuses, returns for the final year of his contract at a $14M cap hit. Opposite him, undrafted free agent gem Emmanuel Moseley is an ERFA, meaning he can be brought back on the minimum. Although, similar to Brunskill, it may make sense to lock him up longer given their long-term outlook. Either way, he’s a lock for the 2020 roster.

K’Waun Williams, one of the top nickel corners in the game and a player who made our move to a base 4-2-5 much more tenable, has a year left on the contract he signed when Shanahan first came onboard. At $3.1M, he’s a steal.

As for the backups, it’s sink-or-swim time for Ahkello Witherspoon, who enters the final season of his rookie contract at a crossroads. Despite his length and movement skills, it would be surprising to see him surpass Moseley in the off-season. But while cutting him would save the team nearly $2M, you always need cornerback depth and he — at times — has played well. At a $2.5M salary and with tons of (largely untapped) potential, it would be a shocker if he’s not back in 2020.

DJ Reed has two more years left on his rookie deal and continues to provide depth and flexibility as a potential nickel corner or free safety. Jason Verrett played a grand total of four plays for us last year before getting toasted and injured. He likely won’t be back, but if he is, it will be in a Dontae Johnson “we’ll grab you later if we need you” sort of role. Finally, Tim Harris — 6th round rookie and PFF darling who was on IR all year — waits in the wing with considerable long-term potential (if he can stay healthy). I wouldn’t expect him to push for major minutes next year, but it should be taken as a good sign if he starts forcing his way into some dime personnel groups.

At safety, Jaquiski Tartt had his best season of the year. He’s on the last year of his contract and, with a $6.7M cap hit, could potentially be an extension candidate (although how they value him versus his extensive injury history could make negotiations interesting). While there’s a ton of noise with any of our end of season defensive stats, this was still the team’s performance with and without him.

Jaquiski Tartt's on-field presence has been critical to the @49ers success against downfield passes (10+ air yards).

Tartt ON: 68.6 passer rating allowed
Tartt OFF: 136.8 passer rating allowed#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/pQVMiBT7TO

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 31, 2020

His backup, Marcell Harris has one more year at just over the minimum. Despite clear coverage limitations, he’s a good player against the run, and you always need a backup for Tartt, a player who has yet to play all 16 games in his career.

The big question becomes Jimmie Ward, who — when finally healthy and finally playing free safety full-time — had a career year. He was seemingly always in the right place at the right time, using his impeccable timing to break up tons of passes over the middle and filling hard against the run. According to PFF, he was the third best safety in the NFL in 2019. All this would imply he’s in for a big pay day, but…

It’s really hard to tell what kind of market Ward will find in free agency. Unlike the consistently robust demand (and contract size) for defensive linemen, the market for safeties has been up and down. There are a handful that have gotten paid big contracts in the past few years, but the demand seems to run hot and cold.

Also unlike Armstead’s situation, while Ward had shown glimpses in his first five years in the league, he didn’t have something like “killer run defender” to hang his hat on for multiple seasons. Yes, part of that is because he was asked to play all over the field for a number of horrid defenses, but this was his best year by a country mile.

And while Armstead has largely shaken any durability red flags with two back-to-back years of starting 16 games, Ward finished the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons on IR, actually missed the first three games of this season, and has missed at least three games in every single season other than his second year in the league. His injuries (according to Sports Injury Predictor) include:

• 2014: quad (1 game); foot fracture repair after post-college surgery (7 games)

• 2016: quad (3 games); broken collarbone (2 games)

• 2017: hamstring (1 game); forearm fracture (8 games)

• 2018: forearm fracture (7 games)

• 2019: collarbone fracture (3 games)

That’s multiple soft tissue injuries, two forearm fractures, two injured collarbones — both which could have resulted in more lost games if not for their timing late in the season and early in training camp — and 32 missed games over a six year period.

So what does that mean for Ward’s next contract? In the past two seasons, Eddie Jackson, Kevin Byard, Tyrann Mathieu, Landon Collins, and Earl Thomas have all gotten contracts that give them ~$14M a year. I don’t expect Ward to get anywhere near that kind of money. While PFF projects (sees: totally guesses) something closer to 2-years at $8M a year for the Niners to retain him.

But at what point is the financial commitment of re-signing Ward so great that we hand the keys to Tarvarius Moore instead? He played (mostly) well in the three games to start the season, and still has two more years left on his rookie contract?

To get a better idea of that, we may have to look at…

The Future (oooh ahhh)

Let’s look at 2021 for a second. While it’s a ways away (a year, to be exact) it’s important to make all personnel decisions with the next few years in mind, especially as we’re talking about extensions and big contracts that are fatter in the back years.

So how much does it make sense to pay Ward when we clearly have a young replacement who is yes, a step down, but is much cheaper? And does it make sense to prioritize Ward over someone like Emmo Sanders who has a more specific and harder to replicate role on offense? Or should we move on from both and hope that the young players behind them improve enough to step into more prominent roles?

These are the tough questions facing the front office right now. Because while the urge to “run it back” is understandably high considering how dominant we were during the regular season and how close we were to winning the Super Bowl, that’s not always the best route towards sustained success.

Even if we retain Armstead and Ward, thus returning our entire starting defense, we have at least four defensive starters who have contracts up after 2020 (Sherman, Tartt, K’Waun, and DJ Jones), plus Solomon Thomas and Akhello Witherspoon and (depending on if he signs a one-year tender this off-season) Emmanuel Moseley. Plus players like Fred Warner and Tarvarius Moore will be entering the final year of their rookie contracts and could be looking at extensions.

In 2021, will it make sense to keep Kwon for $16.5M against the cap when there are 1-2 replacements on rookie deals behind him, one who is potentially already a better player against the run? Will we want to re-up a 33 year-old Richard Sherman on a contract that is likely to be less team friendly than his current one? We know we need a speedy edge rusher to maximize our pass rush, but will Dee Ford be healthy enough to play more than the 7th-most snaps amongst our DL (his 2019 mark)? If not, do we keep his $17.6M salary? Do we have to because we haven’t invested in a potential alternative in the draft? And these questions aren’t only for the defense. At the moment, Weston Richburg’s 2021 cap hit of $11.4M is greater than the average annual salary of any center in the league, so we’d naturally expect a consistently healthy, top tier center for that price point. But if he’s not that in 2020, do we have the depth to move on?

These questions may be a year away, but they NEED to be taken into account now so that we keep the cap space and flexibility to pick and choose who we need to retain in the following years. This is the struggle for good teams in a hard-capped league. When you’re bad, you can retain everyone, you just don’t want to. When you’re good, you can’t retain everyone, even though you’re more likely to want to. And all the while, you need to build depth through the draft and bargain basement free agency acquisitions.

In the NFL, a big part of sustained success is being picky with your extensions and letting the right people walk (and accruing comp picks in the process). Now that we no longer have the free-spending cap space and mentality of a bad team, can we pick and choose correctly? Because while it’s an inarguable fact that Lynch and Shanahan (and Adam Peters and Marathe) have done a great job of rebuilding this team and assembling a bonafide contender, staying at the top is an entirely different animal.

Off-Season Roster Outlook: Offense

Someone’s been squeezing rice in buckets [Carlos Avila Gonzalez / The Chronicle]

In the past few years, we’ve been buyers. Now, our main goal is retention.

Now before I get into this, I am fully aware that few, if any, people reading this are as interested in the minutiae and finances of the NFL salary cap as I am. But… I also know that you need to understand the fundamentals of the salary cap for any of this to make sense. So I’m going to try and make this explanation of how things works as quick and simple as possible.

Salary Cap: For Beginners

• The NFL has a hard salary cap that is set before each year. That means the salaries (or salary cap figures, more accurately) of every player on the roster must fit under that salary cap EVERY year.

• Each player’s salary cap figure is a combination of annual salary, signing bonus (prorated evenly across each year of the contract), likely to be earned (LTBE) incentives, and roster bonuses. These figures fluctuate (sometimes wildly) from year-to-year.

• NFL contracts are NOT guaranteed, but they often include some guaranteed money (see: Kirk Cousins’ entire deal). All signing bonuses are guaranteed and paid out at time of signing, but for cap purposes they are prorated evenly across the years of the contract.

• Whenever a player is cut/released before his contract is complete, the team’s salary cap is charged all of the remaining guaranteed money on the contract. That leftover money, paid to a player who is no longer on the team, is called “dead cap.”

• So if a player signs a three-year contract that gives him $5M annually in non-guaranteed salary with a $12M signing bonus, they are counting $9M against the cap each year. But if they’re cut after only a single season, the team will be off the hook for the remaining non-guaranteed salary ($5M a year) but will have to pay out all of the signing bonus at once ($8M). Thus, cutting that player would result in a loss of $3M in the salary cap, or a “dead cap hit” or $3M.

Cap Space: While we won’t know for sure until the NFL comes out with an official salary cap number for 2020, the Niners are expected to have ~$13M in spending room in 2020. If that doesn’t sound like much — especially when you consider the free agents and major extensions we have looming this off-season — you’re right.

It’s not.

Luckily, we have salary cap wizard Paraag Marathe leading the charge. But while we can expect Marathe to milk every last drop out of this salary cap, we’re still going to have to make some tough decisions.

Note: As of this writing, the NFL is in collective bargaining talks with the NFLPA, with a couple of proposals on the table that could change the salary cap dramatically. The most obvious one being the discussed 17-game season, which will only be ratified if the players receive an increase in revenue share. For the record, I’m against an expanded playoff (for the sports’ sake), I’m against a 17-game season (for competitive balance and the players’ sake), and I’m 100% against a London team (for everyone’s sake because that’s the stupidest thing ever). But… if there is a London team… I hope it’s the Chargers in the AFC West because that’s like the worst case scenario and the NFL should be made to feel extra stupid for being so stupid.

Quarterback

Much has been made about the fact that Jimmy G has no more guaranteed money left on his contract, and — if released — would free up $22M in cap space. Indeed, this was the idea behind the “two-year tryout” that was built into Garoppolo’s contract when he signed that big extension. If after two years the Niners brass had soured on the idea of him leading the franchise, they could move on with little penalty.

And while much of that first year was lost due to a torn ACL and Jimmy G ended the Super Bowl on a sour note, he did just lead the Niners to the brink of a championship, performed very well over the course of his first full season as a starter, and is 21-5 as the team’s starting quarterback over the past three years. When he hasn’t started, we’re 4-20 (420, bwa bwa bwa).

Let’s not overthink this.

It’s also worth noting that Garoppolo’s fat contract should be looked at in the greater scheme of NFL quarterback contracts. Based on annual salary, Garoppolo is currently the 8th highest paid QB in the league, and will soon be surpassed by Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, etc. Remember, Garoppolo may be making an average of $27.5M per year, but Goff is making $33.5M, Foles is making $22M to (potentially) not even start, and Alex Smith — who hasn’t played in a year and a half — is making $23.5M. Replacing Garoppolo with another starting caliber quarterback would likely LOSE us money.

So again, let’s not overthink this.

As for backups, I would guess — unless a former Shanahan protege comes calling and offering a 5th rounder or better — we keep both Beathard and Mullens on the roster. Beathard is still on his rookie contract and Mullens is an exclusive rights free agent, meaning that as long as the Niners offer him $735K, the league minimum salary for third year players, he’ll be on the roster on opening day. Which is obviously an incredible bargain for a serviceable backup.

Running Back

Hats off to Shanahan and Lynch for recognizing how well Raheem Mostert was playing to end 2018 and signing him to a three-year $8.7M deal last off-season. That’s gotta be the best deal on the roster amongst non-rookies. But other than Mostert, the running back room could look noticeably different in 2020.

Tevin Coleman was an excellent addition and a great complement to Mostert on a reasonable salary. That being said, he has a $4.9M cap hit in 2020, his last season under contract, and none of that is guaranteed. Unless the Niners whiff on re-signing some of their own UFAs, I wouldn’t expect him back in 2020.

Jeff Wilson is an ERFA. He’s definitely worth the veteran minimum, especially if Coleman, our resident power back is let go.

Matt Breida is a restricted free agent (RFA), meaning the Niners can offer him one of three tier levels of contracts, each tied to draft pick compensation if another team were to sign him away. Tier 1 = $4M or a first round pick. Tier 2 = $3.3M or a second round pick. Tier 3 = $2.1M or no compensation. While Breida was a non-factor down the stretch, I would expect a tender. Probably at $3.3M to be safe.

That leads us to Jerick McKinnon, the 7th-biggest cap hit on our roster, who has made upwards of $16M without suiting up for a single regular season snap for the 49ers. While cutting him — and saving $4.55M in cap space — is what everyone is clamoring for, I would expect something a bit more nuanced. We’re obviously not going to pay his $8.55M cap hit, but given the loyalty we’ve shown him and the fact that his value in the free market is practically nil, I would expect a major restructuring instead of a release. Jet has said he wants to play for the 49ers, so knocking his salary down to something closer to the veteran’s minimum — and thus saving more money than we would have by cutting him — seems plausible. Either way, we’re going to save AT LEAST $4.55M on his contract. So you can add that to the cap.

Lastly, our fullback. The 2019 season has shown exactly how crucial Juice has been to our offense and he’s entering the final year of his contract. At 28, as a key contributor to the team, and at a $6.7M cap hit, I would expect an extension that can save us a few million this off-season.

Whatever series of events the Niners brass decides on, we’ll certainly be adding spending money to our salary cap here. Potentially, quite a bit.

Wide Receiver

Deebo and Pettis are on rookie contracts. Bourne is a RFA, and I would expect he gets a second round tender given his play and how many teams would like to swoop up a young player like him. Richie James had a rough Super Bowl but was — for the most part — good on special teams. I wouldn’t expect him to make an offensive impact, but at a salary under $700K, he’ll be around unless a new addition pushes him out. Jordan Mathews will be gone, but — based on his availability last year — would be a natural add mid-season if injuries (knock on wood) strike the group. And lastly, I think we can all agree that Marquise Goodwin, despite being a unanimously well-liked and super nice guy, will be released, freeing up $3.65M.

That leaves us with only one question mark: 33 year-old Emmanuel Sanders.

The mid-season trade for Sanders was a huge boost to our passing attack, providing both a legitimate threat on all levels of the field and a veteran presence that greatly helped the development of our young receiver corps. Statistically speaking, here’s that impact, courtesy of The Athletic (and from a paid PFF subscription level that I don’t have):

While there’s potentially a tiny bit of statistical noise in there considering Garoppolo was coming off an ACL tear and naturally was going to start the season slower, the trade for Sanders (week 7) was relatively close to Shanahan’s decision to shrink his receiver rotation to three (week 11), and we got our starting left tackles back during that time (week 9; week 13), the impact Sanders had was real and apparent.

It’s also worth noting, that Garoppolo’s stats after the Sanders trade included top 5 finishes in: yards per attempt (1st), completion % (2nd), PFF passing grade (5th), passing yards (2nd), passer rating (4th), and touchdown passes (4th). Sanders was clearly a massive upgrade to our receiving corps.

But since it was a one year rental and he’s now an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), that means he can sign wherever he pleases. And that leaves us with a handful of questions in determining if we can afford him.

(1) Was his impact a jumpstart or more of an ongoing mentorship?

If the former, perhaps that one year was enough to set Deebo and Bourne on a path for continued development and growth. If the latter, Sanders could be more important to this receiving corps than his raw statistics say.

(2) At this point in his career, would he take a chip-chasing discount?

At the moment, Spotrac projects Sanders’ annual salary to be $10M on a two-year deal. If we re-sign Armstead, that would likely put Sanders out of our price range.

However, Sanders said pre-trade that he was thinking of playing 2-3 more years and was prioritizing competing for championships during that time. He’s clearly a perfect fit for our receiving corps and was an overthrow away from an epic double coverage-beating game-winning touchdown. We can always hope for a discount.

(3) Is there anyone on the roster who can replicate his production?

That answer to that is pretty clearly no, but there’s at least a chance to patchwork together some of his snaps from multiple sources.

Trent Taylor, who — long ago in 2017 — was one of Garoppolo’s favorite targets will (theoretically) be healthy next year. While Taylor is predominantly a slot receiver, Sanders played 38% of his snaps in the slot, so it’s not hard to see Taylor soaking up some of those.

There’s also Jalen Hurd, who will likely have a varied position-less role (similar to Deebo but morphing between different positions). It’s hard to see him playing a ton outside in year one — particularly cause he didn’t really do that in college — but he too could take slot reps, even if his play is a bit more like a tight end.

Finally, there’s Dante Pettis. The theoretical breakout star of 2019 turned permanent dog house inhabitant could theoretically put things together and maximize the vast physical tools he has. But given his sophomore campaign, that’s obviously not something that we can necessarily bank on.

Unless he’s willing to give us a discount, or we don’t re-sign Armstead, it doesn’t seem like Sanders will be back. If that’s the case, replicating his presence would require tremendous growth from our wideouts, a potential cheap-o free agent looking for a chip/prove it deal, or one of the many many talented wideouts in this draft class (there are many who believe it to be the best WR class in multiple decades).

Most likely, it will require some combination of the above.

Tight End

George Kittle, whose $719K salary for 2019 was the NFL’s best deal, now enters the last year of his rookie contract and is about to GET PAID. It’s figuring out exactly how much that is gonna be the tricky part.

It likely helps us here that the tight end market is rather tame. The highest paid tight end (in terms of annual salary) is — somehow — Jimmy Graham ($10M), followed closely by Travis Kelce ($9.38M, on a deal signed three years ago), and Jordan Reed ($9.35M), whose biggest news story of late is that he’s finally getting healthy enough to get cut.

Kittle, who is both an A+ blocker and finished the year as the #1 most efficient pass catcher in the NFL regardless of position, is clearly the best tight end in football. Thus, he will reset this market. The question becomes if he “resets it” or blows it out of the fucking water.

A multi-year deal averaging $11.4M a year (as projected by Spotrac) would be a major win for us. Others are guessing something closer to the $15M/year range. While that would still be worth it, it would be nice to be able to lock Kittle up long-term without giving him a salary that is 50% bigger than literally everyone else in the NFL who plays the position.

We’ve done “resetting the market” deals for other players in the past, but — given the state of rebuild our team was in and the salary cap space we had — we had a bit more leeway to do that. We want Kittle happy and well-compensated, but if we can keep his annual salary the highest for a tight end and not way way way the highest for a tight end, that would be nice, as any money saved there could prove crucial in retaining other talent.

Elsewhere, Levine Toilolo is a UFA but I’d love to get him back for his mauling run blocking ability. He was only $800K this year and can likely be retained for something similar in 2020. Ross Dwelley, who did a great job filling in for Kittle and Juice is an ERFA. He should be back on the league minimum.

Undrafted free agent tight end/fullback Daniel Helm was getting some love in the preseason and made it onto the practice squad. By the end of the year, whether due to play or other teams’ interest or both, he was on the 53-man roster. I’d assume he gets re-upped as well.

Offensive Line

While the back half of our season wasn’t always kind to our interior offensive line, it’s still worth mentioning we were a dominant run blocking team, and the players who had some issues in pass pro (namely Garland and Person), were a big part of that success on the ground. Also, while the blitz pickups weren’t ideal in the Super Bowl, there’s no shame in losing reps against top 5 defensive tackles (Jarrett, Jones, Donald twice). That being said, this is still (according to ESPN’s somewhat dubious stat) the league’s 26th-ranked squad in pass block win rate. As far as pass protection goes, there’s room for improvement.

At tackle, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey both missed time due to injury, but once they got back to health, they were dominant in both phases of the game. McGlinchey, despite a slow start to the season, really showed improvement in his pass pro down the stretch and finished the season ranked the 5th-best tackle in terms of pass-block win rate by ESPN. And while I have serious questions about a ranking that didn’t include either New Orleans tackle or Mitchell Schwartz in its top ten… at least that’s something. Staley has two more years on his deal and McGlinchey is still on his rookie contract. They’ll be back.

Behind our top two tackles are two very intriguing young players. 6th round rookie Justin Skule performed admirably on the left side, really only struggling while dinged up against the Packers. While Daniel Brunskill, NFL journeyman, AAF standout, and player who had never seen a snap in the regular season up until this season, was — to borrow from every review of every movie or TV show — “an absolute revelation” as the Niners’ tackle/swing man. Skule is on his rookie contract. Brunskill is an ERFA and will be back next year.

On the inside, Weston Richburg was playing good ball before he went down, and it should be noted that the interior OL wasn’t getting as much attention until he was shelved for the season. Despite a long injury history, Richburg isn’t going anywhere. He recently restructured his contact to free up more cap space in 2020.

Backup Ben Garland is an interesting case. As a 31 year-old backup center who was playing on a one-year minimum contract, we got a ton out of him last year. And perhaps we can get him back for a similar rate in 2020. Yes, he had his issues in pass protection, but — according to PFF — those issues were outweighed by a run blocking grade that was massively superior to Richburg’s. And while I wouldn’t go so far as to say he was better than Richburg (after all, PFF has some questionable OL grades and Richburg was getting mentions as an All-Pro candidate midway through the season), having a solid backup around given Richburg’s injury history would be nice.

At left guard, Laken Tomlinson is a rock. He’s a smart player — unsurprising considering he’s a Duke grad with plans to go into neurosurgery post-NFL — and while not a world beater, he’s been consistent, both in his snap counts (he played 100% of offensive snaps this year, 97% the last) and his play.

The clear weak spot in pass pro is our right guard, Mike Person, whose incredibly generic moniker sounds like the default name of someone you’d find wandering the neighborhood in The Sims 2. But while there’s no more guaranteed money left on his contract, that contract also only pays him $2.5M a year, which is a great deal for a starting guard. I highly doubt ShanaLynch wants to shell out big money for a guard — probably ever but especially in this off-season — so I doubt Person is going anywhere either.

But if there’s any shuffling along the starting OL it would likely be Brunskill taking over for Person. Brunskill — at 26 years old — projects as a possible successor at tackle when Joe Staley retires in the next few years and gives the Niners the rare situation where they have (up to) two viable tackles on their bench. But he also got snaps in at guard near the end of the season. And while his first interior start was a bit of a baptism by fire at the hands of Aaron Donald, he performed very well the next week against the Seahawks. Could he potentially get the nod over Person? Or will the Niners, who — at pick #31 — are slotted in prime “trade down and get a starting interior lineman” territory, add to their ranks via the draft?

That’s where our roster stands in terms of offense. Next up (unsurprisingly) is defense.