First-Round Preview

Can’t wait to see how awkward this will be over Zoom [courtesy of AP]

While discussing our potential options both at pick 13 and pick 31, I’ll be talking a lot about matching good players with positional needs. But in doing so it’s best to remember the “GTFO Man” draft evaluation system that I just made up in the last post. I’ve tried my best to match up value with the consensus opinions of draft prognosticators, but if shit goes haywire in the top ten and the Niners come upon someone who they are confident is an absolute steal, they should pull the trigger. Because getting good players is the #1 priority.

Class Strengths 

For the second straight year, the value of the current draft class seems to match up well with our team needs. In 2019, a loaded crop of edge rushers and a Cardinals team needing a franchise quarterback landed us Nick Bosa, the top player in the class, at #2. While a wideout class with a lot of second-round depth secured us Deebo Samuel at 36th overall. Those were value picks as well as need picks. And they were unquestionably home runs. The draft usually doesn’t line up that well, but — if we play the first round well enough — maybe it can again this year.

The 2020 draft class is known for its wideouts, a position that we’re clearly in the market for. And while no one doubts the class’ depth, there is some debate on the high-end talent of this class. Many draft experts are putting one or two (or sometimes even three) wideouts in the top ten of their big boards, while others see the class’ value as not really hitting until the early-to-mid teens.

Yes, this class lacks a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones surefire generational talent, a player with insane size and speed to match their complete college tape. But this class has so many guys with high ceilings that it would be a shocker if a handful don’t become studs. In terms of depth, there are probably 10-12 receivers with first or second-round grades who could be immediate plus-level performers and another half dozen in the third round who could wind up major steals. This type of depth could hurt the Niners, as it may create runs on the position (like we saw with edge rushers in 2018) and make the flow of picks less predictable. But it’s more likely to help us, as teams drafting high could be more willing to wait until later in the first round or into the second to address the wideout position. That shows in the draft predictions because — as of now — very few mock drafts have a single wideout being taken in the top ten.

That’s also due in part to the other strengths of this class, which happen to lean into two of the most positionally scarce positions in the NFL. While there are tons of question marks regarding this quarterback class, there are (arguably) up to six signal-callers possessing the blend of mental makeup and physical traits to develop into NFL starters (plus your standard later round higher-risk, higher reward type players). It’s also a top-heavy offensive tackle class, with up to four projecting as potential top ten anchors who can play right away. Now will all of these players become long-term starters? Highly unlikely. But since it’s the draft, it’s that potential to become a starter that will push these players at highly coveted positions further up the board.

So, due to the need and positional scarcity of both those positions, it’s largely expected that three quarterbacks and four tackles could go in the top ten picks. Throw in surefire top ten selections at edge rusher (Chase Young), cornerback (Jeff Okudah), and hybrid linebacker (Isaiah Simmons), and that would already fill out the top ten of the draft without any wideouts taken. And that’s not even including defensive tackle Derrick Brown, a player who tested poorly but was a top-five talent on film.

If Brown comes off the board at some point in those top 11 then we’d be looking at the Raiders (who everyone believes will select a wide receiver), and then us. But that’s a lot of guesswork for a process that each year proves to be unpredictable. So here are a few ways the first round could shake out.

At Pick #13

1 - Take a top three wideout: It’s unlikely that we get to this pick and there hasn’t been a single wideout taken off the board, so we may be looking at whichever one or two is left from the group of Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs (a trio which I’ll discuss more at length in a later post). 

Now, in a class known for its depth does it make sense to pick a wideout here? Or would it make more sense to trade down, accumulate picks, and still get a receiver with tons of potential? My guess is that if the Niners have a dude they think could become a legit No.1 receiver, they pick him at 13. While productive wideouts may seem like a dime a dozen, a true No.1 is very hard to find. If they look at the board and see more complementary pieces rather than future stars then they should look elsewhere, play to the depth of the class, and attack the position later in the first (or — if they secure a trade to acquire second day picks — the second).

Whenever the Niners go for a wideout, I expect them to add one with big-play ability because, well, this tweet: 

RIP Flameis Winston. You will be missed. pic.twitter.com/BJoIbltt6c

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 20, 2020

Names to watch: Jerry Jeudy, Alabama; CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma; Henry Ruggs III, Alabama

2 - Take a top four tackle: If faced with a potential tackle of the future, one of those top four candidates who we could see bookending with McGlinchey for the next decade, it could be hard to pass up. But there are a handful of variables here, with most of them centering around what Joe Staley’s plans are.

I’ve been working off of the assumption that Staley plays in 2020 (an assumption that I still stand by), but if reports that he could retire before the season are proven correct, then drafting a tackle with this pick immediately becomes more important than a wideout. 

But if Staley returns for one or two more years, it could be smart to invest in his replacement while we’re looking at a strong tackle draft and what will (hopefully) be the highest first-round pick that we'll have for quite some time. 

Again, that depends on how the draft unfolds. If those top four tackles are off the board by the time we pick, it’s doubtful that we have a grade high enough on whoever the fifth tackle is to have him warrant the 13th overall selection. 

It’s also worth noting that — despite the need for strong tackle play and the difficulty in finding it in the NFL — picking a tackle here may only be worth it if he can play major minutes by (at the very latest) year two, regardless of what Staley decides to do. That means he’d have to be able a viable starter on the inside this year or -- if Staley returns, we move on from Richburg, and Brunskill can indeed play center -- in 2021.

Ultimately, we didn’t trade an All-Pro defender for the 13th overall pick to pick a guy we didn't expect to play. But more importantly, you need to maximize the rookie discount and fifth-year option of first-round contracts. Picking guys in the first round with the idea of them waiting around and developing for multiple years is only for the absolutely most stacked and young teams, and — quite often — it can still bite you in the ass (see: Trent Baalke). Championship windows are shorter than you think. Anyone we pick at 13 needs to play well and play early. 

Names to watch: OT, Jedrick Wills Jr., Alabama; Tristan Wirfs, Iowa; Mekhi Becton, Louisville; Andrew Thomas, Georgia

3 - Take an elite defensive tackle: I truly do not understand why so many draft prognosticators think the Niners should go defensive tackle with this pick. Yes, we have a hole there now that Buckner is gone, but with all the young talent we’ve accumulated on the interior it’s not unreasonable to think we can offset some of that loss with our current roster. Also, as I’ve said many times before, you can’t structure your team in a way where you plan to pay everyone at a single position group, especially a group that includes four starters plus many rotational pieces. The exception to my hesitance here would be if Derrick Brown somehow falls to this pick. That would seem like just too much of a value win to ignore and could secure our pass rush dominance for at least another three years before contract extensions are up.

Names to watch: DT, Derrick Brown, Auburn; DT, Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina

4 - Trade down: While incredibly unsexy, trading down must ALWAYS be on the table if you can’t match value and need to draft slot. Clearly, the #31 pick is the easiest to see traded. People love to draft up and get quarterbacks here, teams want to secure the fifth-year option that comes with the first round, GMs get nervous about the top of the second round because then everyone will have a night to maneuver trades to get there, etc. But whether it's the 13th or the 31st pick that gets moved, we must always be thinking about accumulating capital and maneuvering to get our guys in the spots where they present the most value.

So, if we have a lot of guys that we like in that late first / mid-second round range and feel like we would be reaching on someone at #13, we could get quite the coup in return for it. Say the Dolphins wanted to swap for their #18 and #70 picks, or their #26, #56, and a future third? If it falls correctly with our big board, it could make a lot of sense.

5 - Draft a cornerback: Yeah, I’ll be honest, I don’t love this move, but enough people are talking about it that it’s at least worth looking into. To me, unless there’s a cornerback on the board who the Niners love and have ranked in an entirely different tier than everyone left in the draft, there are better options.

If you’re the Niners, this is the highest you expect to pick in a long time, and Emmanuel Moseley, while not a stud, had a very strong season (with a 70.4 PFF rating that was good for 27th in the league amongst CBs) and is locked up for another two years on an ERFA minimum contract. While he doesn’t have insane physical tools, last year was his first NFL action. The arrow on him is likely pointing up. We also run a scheme that, theoretically, minimizes the importance of lockdown cornerbacks in lieu of investment on the defensive line. That is to say, while teams in the “secondary down” style of defense building (Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, etc.) will be putting a premium on drafting elite cornerbacks and signing them via free agency, we should be able to develop a starting cornerback who can play within this scheme or add one for a reasonable price point in free agency next year.

Whoever you draft isn’t beating out Richard Sherman this year. Nor is he beating out K’Waun Williams in the nickel. So the best-case scenario is that this rookie corner beat out Moseley, stunt his growth for a year, and boot Witherspoon to the curb after this season. And if he can’t beat out Moseley? He fights for snaps against Witherspoon, DJ Reed, and Tim Harris, and — even if he beats those three out for all the dime package reps — sees maybe a dozen snaps per game.

Simply put, with what could be on the table by the time we draft, an elite wide receiver or future fixture at tackle have greater overall value and considerably more specific value given our team's schematic needs. Thus, the only reason we get a cornerback at 13 is if there's a prospect who is deemed head-and-shoulders above what’s left on the board at the time. 

Names to watch: CJ Henderson, Florida

At #31 (or into the second round, if we trade down)

1 - Trade down: We need picks, and — at the very least — we should be able to trade this pick for a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder and — in many cases — we could do so while dropping less than ten spots in the draft. While a player who has slipped unexpectedly can always throw a wrench in any late first-round projection, I would be shocked if we keep both our first-round picks. Ideally, we trade one away to accumulate the day two capital to address more team needs.

2 - Draft a flexible interior offensive lineman: It would be foolish (and unfair to him) to think that replacing Mike Person immediately shores up any issues we have along the offensive line. While it’s reasonable to expect growth in Brunskill’s second year, he’s not a surefire lock as a plus contributor at guard. And even if he is, Richburg’s lengthy injury history and hefty contract mean we could need a backup center in 2020 and a starting center in 2021.

There are players available around this spot in the draft who are zone-ready centers who can play guard in a pinch and who would be worthy of a selection around the second-round turn or later.

Names to watch: Cesar Ruiz, Michigan; Lloyd Cushenberry III, LSU; C, Matt Hennessy, Temple

3 - Draft a project OT: The top half of the first round isn't the only time when you can find future starting tackles, particularly if you have a year to develop them under seasoned veterans. 

Our outside zone scheme means we’re eliminating (or at least greatly docking the value of) a big chunk of every tackle class, but there are plenty of second round-ish prospects with the movement skills and potential to develop into long-term starters. 

Maybe this player can play right now on the inside, or maybe they're strictly a tackle who needs time to develop. At the 31st pick and lower, your players don't need to play in year one. Although, as stated above, you'd want them playing by year two at least.

Names to Watch: Josh Jones, Houston; Austin Jackson, USC; Ezra Cleveland, Boise State

4 - Tap the giant glut of wideout talent: If we didn’t pick one at 13, we need to pick one at 31 or on the second day (ideally early in the second round). This is where the bulk of this class’ talent is located, so it’s not unreasonable to think there could be a handful of different guys who Shanahan would like at the position. 

At this point, we wouldn't be looking at a guy who we're confident becomes a No.1 receiver. We'd likely be looking at someone who we could pair with Deebo and feel good about their contrasting and overlapping talents. That could be a slot (Jefferson), a speedier space guy (Aiyuk, Reagor), a swiss-army knife (Shenault), or a size-speed monster who we're banking on tapping his considerable potential (Mims, Chase Claypool).

Whether it’s at pick 13 or here, whatever player we pick should be expected to get heavy snaps early.

Names to watch: Brandon Aiyuk, ASU; Jalen Reagor, TCU; Denzel Mims, Baylor; Justin Jefferson, LSU; Laviska Shenault, Colorado

5 - Draft a cornerback: At this point, I start to understand the value proposition a bit more, and as we're now leaving the first round, we also start to gain the flexibility to go with an outside or nickel corner. 

The nickel is a starter in our defense, and seeing as Sherman, Williams, Witherspoon, and Tartt are all finishing up their contracts this year, getting a guy who could both inside and out (whichever opens up first) would give us ideal flexibility moving forward.

Names to watch: Jeff Gladney, TCU; Trevon Diggs, Alabama; Jaylon Johnson, Utah; AJ Terrell, Clemson

Next up… I’ll compare the top three wideouts in the class