New Team, Who Dis?

Remember when I said we wouldn’t be spending much in free agency? Well… that was an understatement.

On the first day of free agency in an off-season that had long been earmarked for change, the Niners made history. Just not the kind you celebrate. With our unsigned and released players garnering a combined $321 million in new contracts and the new deals we gave out totaling… $37 million, our $284 million spending deficit was the greatest in NFL history.

Woof.

Dre. Deebo. Huf. Ward. This was a likable crop of guys who made some of the biggest plays of the current era–plays that will forever be seared into our memories. If this is the end of our run of contention, then March 10th, 20225 will mark a sad curtain call on a group of players and team who got so close but never made it over the hump. But if there’s solace to be had in what transpired at the top of this month, it’s that this does not have to be the end of our run. In fact, how we approached this off-season was (mostly) indicative of a team that wants to reload and retool as quickly as possible and is willing to take some lumps to do so. Or… we’ve become cheap bitches overnight. But it’s far too early to make that assumption.

In a vacuum, the large majority of deals and departures made sense. I don’t wanna pay Hufanga $15M/yr. I certainly don’t want to pay Jaylon Moore $15M/yr. But before I get into what our current depth chart looks like as we approach the draft, I do want to look at three specific departures that raised eyebrows and gave us plenty of information about how we’re approaching the next few years. 

First off, let’s look at the rapid dissolution of our defensive line. We all knew Hargrave was on his way out, but the releases of Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins signaled a clear shift in this off-season’s philosophy. Both of these guys were on reasonable veteran deals. Both would be past 30 by next season. Neither were earmarked for our team come 2026, so we let go of them now. This is the “tear the bandaid off” approach. Floyd’s multiple void years would have resulted in a dead cap hit next season when his contract lapsed, so we’re getting that out of the way now to get more space next year. Collins… well, we aren’t really saving jack by letting him go.

This is the clearest indicator that we’re not only going young but also clearing out the cap space and snaps to ensure we HAVE to play the young guys we bring in. With both Floyd and Collins seen as one-year players, we moved on from them so that their snaps could go to guys like Evan Anderson and Sam O. and the–likely many–defensive linemen we’re going to add in this year’s draft. 

There will be some tough days during this process. Potentially quite a few. But the goal is for this overhaul to result in a defensive line that is sustainable with multiple cost-controlled pieces–rather than one that constantly relies on veterans on short-term deals. We’ve talked in the past about how important defensive line sustainability is in running this kind of defense. This is the first step (of many) towards trying to rebuild the DL pipeline that carried our defense for years. 

But I am going to point out one move that was more of a head-scratcher. In what is likely my last (and most futile) attempt to stump for Dre Greenlaw, we let him go to the Broncos on a 3-year/$31.5M pact. This deal, which includes $13.5M guaranteed, has zero void years, allows for an out after one season that would only cost $4M in dead cap space, and has a $10.5M AAV that ranks 29th among linebackers and 9th among inside linebackers (as 3-4 rush ends typically dominate the LB market). This is a reasonable deal for a 27-year-old locker room fixture with a team-friendly exit hatch after one year if he never returns to his previous form. We could have easily matched this, and reports have come in that we tried to do just that after he soft-committed to the Broncos.

People like to talk about sports as the ultimate “results-based” industry. It all comes down to wins and losses. But while binary “success” metrics are easier to come by in the sporting world, this industry, like every other one, still comes down to the process. You may win. You may lose. You may benefit or be the victim of good or bad luck. But the process is what dictates consistency. It’s the surest and most controllable variable towards sustained success. The Niners know more about Dre’s medicals than anyone. Certainly more than me. But there shouldn’t be any situation where a priority free agent walks and then we later try to pull him back by matching or besting the contract. This feels like lowball negotiations gone awry or management indecisiveness, or both. This feels like bad process. And if this becomes a trend in how we negotiate our contracts and determine player value, that could spell trouble.

Regardless, the Niners’ goals for the 2025 season and beyond are quite clear. This is an overt attempt to pull off the “remodel, not rebuild” strategy that the Rams accomplished back in 2022, when–coming off a disappointing season just one year removed from a Super Bowl–they jettisoned a ton of veteran starters, played a bunch of rookies, and swallowed a fat dead cap hit into a season in which they hit their stride late en route to a 10-7 record. The Niners hope to pull off something similar while setting us up for another era of success. On paper, that’s certainly possible.

High dead cap figures are far from a death knell in the NFL. The Broncos finished 2024 with $90M in dead cap but made the playoffs. The Bucs, Rams, and Packers were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in dead cap the year before that. All three made the playoffs. When healthy, the Niners–with a league-leading $87M in dead cap–have a better core than any of those teams did. We’ve got the best tight end and off-ball linebacker in football, top 5 performers at DE, OT, and RB, young players at QB and WR who were All-Pros just a year ago, a thoroughly impressive rising sophomore class, and–at the moment–11 picks in both of the next two drafts. 

Remember, this is not the NBA. This is not the MLB. With 53-man rosters, 11 men on the field at all times, a single elimination playoff, and an oblong ball that is thrown, kicked, and handled outside in the winter, contender status in the NFL isn’t as binary as the other major American pro sports. Contention windows open and close more quickly, but they can also be pried open indefinitely if you play your cards right. While the top of this month was bleak, we could be back to contender status in no time. But that starts with the draft. It can’t be like the horrid 2022 and 2023 classes. It’s gotta be like 2024.

We need another banger.

NEEDS (there are more now!)

Quarterback: Purdy’s new deal will be a litmus test for our management teams’ ability to rebound after feeling snake-bitten by their deals a year ago. Mac Jones is a solid addition as a backup. Just cause I hated him at No.3 years ago, doesn’t mean I don’t love him as a backup on the cheap. We are probably cool with Tanner Mordecai as our third, but—if not—don’t be surprised if we take someone with multiple years as a college starter super late in the draft or pick someone up once the draft concludes.

Running Back: As expected after we gave him a second-round RFA tender, Jordan Mason was flipped to the Vikings for a 2026 6th-rounder and a 27-spot jump from the sixth to the fifth round come April. The Niners are now poised to draft a running back somewhere in the middle-to-late rounds of a loaded draft class. Ironically, given our penchant for drafting RBs too high, this is the rare class where drafting an RB in the third might actually make sense. I’m not saying I want us to do that, but there could be talented backs who slip.

Tight End: Luke Farrell was brought in from the Jags on a 3-yr deal worth $16M, with a contract structure that means he’ll never make more than a maximum of 1.28% of our cap space. Farrell is a very talented pass blocker, and the Niners must like his movement skills enough to believe he’ll be a strong run blocker as well. But the return of Juice muddies the picture a bit. At the moment, Farrell’s signing loses us a fifth-round comp pick next year. That cost could be defensible if we knew he was about to get major snaps as TE2 and FB. But with Juice back in the building and the team likely to draft a tight end in a deep and versatile class, will Farrell’s one-dimensional ability (he’s totaled 36 grabs over 66 games) be worth that draft capital? Or will be prove redundant/block valuable development time from a rookie? This is the deepest tight end class I’ve seen in years, we love heavy sets, and Kittle will turn 32 next year. I still expect us to draft a tight end. But if we’re talking about clearing out space for rookies to get major snaps, this is one of the few positions where that could be difficult.

Wide Receiver: Our other “big” add in free agency was Demarcus Robinson from the Rams. He’s a Chris Conley replacement with a higher ceiling. He’s got decent size and good vertical ability–even if he didn’t test well out of college–but has more versatility, upside, and production than Conley at this point in his career. The fit is strong, but questions remain around his DUI stoppage last year, how that reflects on his overall decision-making and locker room fit, and whether or not he’ll even be available (due to potential suspension) to start while Aiyuk heals up early in the year. With Aiyuk’s long-term standing in question, we’ll be in the market if an appropriate fit comes along. But it’s not a priority. 

Offensive Tackle: Trent and McKivitz return, but Trent missed a lot of games last year and doesn’t have much time left. While McKivitz improved but may be a more natural fit inside at guard. This is not an incredible tackle class, but we’ll certainly be doing our homework in the early rounds. We’ve already had confirmed interviews with four of the top five OT prospects in the class—with four of those legitimate options when we pick in the first round.

Offensive Guard: Puni has quickly become a mainstay, whether he sticks on the right or is moved to the left beside Trent. The second guard spot will probably be up for grabs in training camp, with Ben Bartch competing with any potential rookies and/or Spencer Burford–unless the team wants to keep him as a swing tackle/guard. With several tweener G/T’s in this draft, plugging in a rookie next to McKivitiz with the idea that they could eventually push outside is a possibility.

Center: Jake Brendel returns, and with free agency mostly in the rearview, the best chance we have to unseat him is probably Matt Hennessy–who we added from the Falcons’ practice squad late last year. Hennessy is a highly proven run blocker who started 20 games between 2021-22 at center, registering top 5 run blocking rates in both seasons. But he missed nearly two entire seasons due to injury and hasn’t played much since. He’s a scheme fit with legitimate upside and probably our best chance to unset Brendel. Drake Nugent also lingers in the background. With the new youth (by default) movement, perhaps a rookie starter is possible. But I’ll believe it when I see it.

Defensive End: Nick Bosa reigns supreme, but there are questions as to whether or not we have another starter on the roster. Sam Okuayinonu has potential but ran into the mid-to-late season wall we all kind of expected after his hot start last season. He should be better prepared for more snaps this year, but there’s a chance we just like him more as a member of the Bravo unit. Yetur Gross-Matos also returns. He showed some nice inside-out ability in his short run with us last year. He’s a guy with the athletic profile and flashes to be a starter (or super sub) but lacks consistency in a big way. We’ll be in the market to add (at least) another body in the draft, but getting an instant impact guy will be easier said than done.

Defensive Tackle: If defensive end features only one solidified starter, defensive tackle almost certainly has zero. Jordan Elliott could theoretically be paired with a rookie gap-shooter at the three-tech, but it’s not ideal. Givens is a good rotational piece, but not a starter. And the staff certainly wants Evan Anderson to push for a starter(ish) role, but that’s far from certain, and–even if he does force his way into more snaps–he’d likely be eating into Elliott’s playing time rather than pairing beside him as both are traditional nose tackles. Defensive tackle is the strongest and deepest position in this draft class. While the need for a one-gapper is much more dire, there are plenty of options for both types of bodies. If we don’t pick at least two defensive tackles this draft, with at least one coming in our top three picks, I’d be shocked.

Linebacker: Fred Warner will man the middle and should benefit greatly from the time off to heal the broken bone in his ankle that he played three months on last year. He was a different player in the first month of the season. Dee Winters will get the first crack at taking over Dre Greenlaw’s vacated spot. He’s got the will, the speed, and the coverage ability to excel there, but he’s been hit-or-miss against the run and has struggled to stay healthy. It’ll be a tall task to replace Greenlaw’s fire and emotional impact, but I expect us to try by taking a linebacker somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds. There are several speedy undersized types and converted safeties in this class who may fit our mold. How ready may they be to play right away? That remains to be seen.

Cornerback: With Ward gone, we need another starter on the outside. Or the inside, if we find a better fit and decide to move DeMo to the boundary. I don’t know if our solution is on the roster already, but I don’t expect this to be a premium need. Spending a high pick on the position doesn’t seem to be our preference, and we can likely get by with a late add veteran if need be. The one way this changes is if someone with genuinely elite traits falls. Will Johnson of Michigan is the name to watch here, but depending on how the draft shakes out, there could also be a value play at this position at the top of the second. Cornerback feels like a big wildcard position this year in that we have bigger needs but could get the best value by picking one earlier than we’d prefer.

Safety: I think we’re pretty set here. Mustapha is entrenched as our strong safety, while the Niners quietly added two veterans in Richie Grant and Jason Pinnock, who’ve started a combined 70 games across the past three years. They’ll compete with Ji’Ayir Brown to hold down the free safety spot. We’ve gotten great value from low-cost vets at this position in the past, and my guess is that’s the plan this time as well.

Kicker/Punter: My favorite text from a friend amid our free agent purge read “Interesting that Jake Moody hasn’t been dragged out into the parking lot and given the Old Yeller treatment.” We’ll add competition for Moody. Hopefully, that’s from a veteran leg or an undrafted rookie, or–if we have to–someone taken in the 6th or 7th round. Mitch’s job isn’t quite safe either. Regardless, we won’t get clarity until we get through the inevitable kicker competitions in training camp. Just please god no more specialists taken before the last rounds.

Go Niners 🏈👍

Free Agent Preview

We won’t be signing any of these guys but the graphic looked cool

With the Niners moving on from Hargrave and Deebo and the (annual?) re-appearance of Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors, there’s been some internet consternation on whether or not the Niners are trying to cut salary and reassess their big-spending ways. The incoming Brock Purdy deal will tell us a lot, but I wouldn’t worry about an NBA-style belt tightening quite yet. This seems more like the natural flow of going all-in on a Super Bowl window with a good QB on a rookie deal and then having to fix the books once he starts to get paid.

On a case-by-case basis, Hargrave simply wasn’t worth his contract, a 2025 Deebo departure was something that was penciled in as a possibility as far back as 2022, and—while an Aiyuk trade could theoretically materialize for the right price—I doubt we get that price after his worst season in the NFL was cut short by a major knee injury. No sense getting into the nitty gritty of Aiyuk’s contract during a free agency write-up, but if Aiyuk is getting moved it’s more likely to happen in 2026—when his would-be dead cap hit plummets and he either has or has not regained his trade value.

Aiyuk is an important figure in all this because I think his contract negotiations last year were as annoying for the front office as they were for us as fans. I think the Niners were ready to ship him out for a 2nd and 3rd-round pick but folded last second because we felt we had to be all-in while on Purdy’s rookie deal. And I think his final price tag—which came in higher than most of us expected it would—was the cherry on top for an off-season in which the Niners extended three players to lucrative deals and effectively lost all three of those negotiations. Injuries are a part of the game, and you wanna spend good money on good players. But losing negotiations isn’t the way to win games long-term, and I think the Niners have felt that. Deebo and Hargrave were just not worth their contracts. Now they’re out. Aiyuk—so far—hasn’t been worth his. So now he’s put on notice. All this to say, I don’t think we’re seeing a philosophical shift toward the “acceptable mediocrity” that so many mid-market NBA teams seem to pursue. But I do think the front office is rightfully—and intelligently—trying to keep us in contention as we move out of the all-in stage. And to do that, we need a financially sustainable blueprint.

So what does that look like? I still think we’ll be active in free agency but with a greater lean on quality investments on mid-tier and upside plays and less big game hunting. Think of this as an off-season where we get younger and balance the books. 11 draft picks will help on the youth front. While pragmatic spending in free agency will go a long way toward making sure we’re a perennial contender and not just a team that pushed its chips in while we had a QB on a rookie deal. Teams in the NFL can continue to spend and contend as long as they’re constantly bringing in talented rookies. If we knock this draft out of the park like last year, we could be back to big spending in no time. But for now, think of this off-season as a recalibration as we figure out what that looks like while building around Purdy.

A few bullet points before we get into the giant block of potential free agents. 

• I grouped players into general clusters of Bidding War, Multiple Suitors, Bargain Buys, and Deep Dives. Those clusters are based more on what I expect their market to be versus how good a player/fit they may be. Their listed order is just last name alphabetical.

• I think we add a RB and TE this off-season, but I think it’ll be in the draft. So I didn’t include either position.

• After initial cuts are made, there could be a lot of veteran wideouts available this off-season. I only included a few because those cuts are currently speculative and because I think–overall–our approach to the receiver room will be developing youth versus spending on big veteran deals.

• PFF is far from perfect but I’ll be referencing their grades a lot because even I can’t watch THAT much football

• I asterisked(*) guys in each category who feel like particularly good/intriguing fits

BIDDING WAR

*C, Drew Dalman, Falcons: For the past two years, Dalman’s been one of PFF’s top 5 centers, and while his pass protection could use some work, he’s widely regarded as one of the best run blockers at the position–especially in the stretch scheme that we employ. While there are viable center prospects in this draft, it’s hard to imagine Shanahan starting a rookie at the position, so our best chance to upgrade Brendel may have to come in free agency. Even if he wouldn’t shore up all our pass pro issues, Dalman’s fit seems ideal, but the demand for his services will be substantial. Thus, the cost could prove untenable. 

That said, this is probably the one guy in this tier I’d say we have a decent chance of acquiring if we pursue him–mainly due to the appeal of playing under Shanahan and the fact that even top-market centers don’t get paid much compared to other positions. It is worth noting that ankle injuries have limited him in the past two years—including a stint on the IR in 2024. After getting burned by Weston Richburg’s health (or lack thereof), the medical checks would have to come back clean.

DE, Malcolm Koonce, Raiders: Koonce seemed poised for a contract year breakout after registering a top 25 PFF grade alongside 8 sacks and 17 QB hits a year ago, but a knee injury during practice forced him to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. If his medicals are right, he could wind up quite the steal. But we won’t be the only ones thinking of that.

DE, Khalil Mack, Chargers: While he turns 34 this week, Mack is still a beast on the edge, finishing 6th and 5th in PFF’s edge rusher ratings the past two seasons while accumulating 23 sacks and 37 QB hits. While his 2023 raw numbers had a bit of fool’s gold in them–17 sacks on 22 QB hits is not sustainable–he was a genuine two-way player over that span and he could be seen as the “missing piece” to a defense the same way an aging Von Miller was courted by the Rams (2021) and Bills (2022). 

But determining a potential price tag is complicated. Miller was a year and a half younger than Mack is now when he put up 9 sacks (4 in the playoffs) over 12 games while helping lead the Rams to a Super Bowl. He then signed a monstrous 6-yr/$120M deal with the Bills. Mack’s age and lesser recent production (only 6 sacks in 2024) likely won’t net him that kind of contract, but–in today’s cap–a shorter deal worth over $20M/yr still seems plausible. That’s not outrageous, but it’s a steep price to pay for a 34-year-old when we’re trying to get younger and more cost-controlled. It’s possible–and I do think Mack would be a sizeable upgrade over Leonard Floyd–but it feels like his market may explode when contender cuspy teams like the Commanders start entering the bidding. 

CB, DJ Reed, Jets: The one that got away. The fit and familiarity are undeniable, but Reed could wind up the highest-paid corner in this class, making a reunion highly unlikely. 

*DT, Milton Williams, Eagles: Looking for a Javon Hargrave replacement? Why not the exact same dude but two years younger? A bit off the nationwide radar as part of a deep DL rotation, Williams dominated the Super Bowl, and he’ll get paid accordingly. Great fit, but his performance on the national stage may have priced him out of our range, and there are concerns with his run defense and the fact that he topped out at only 10 QB hits this season (albeit as part of a deep rotation). At a lower expected price tag, I wouldn’t care about those hesitations. But if he starts approaching $20M/yr territory, they’re at least worth mentioning.

MULTIPLE SUITORS

OL, Mekhi Becton, Eagles: He’s up here due to upside, positional value, and the absolute dearth of tackle options in free agency. But there are more questions with Becton than most guys in this tier. A former first-round pick by the Jets who–for a few games–looked like a Pro Bowl fixture at left tackle, Becton’s career was absolutely ravaged by injuries. After finishing out his rookie deal, he signed a one-year pact with the Eagles where he started at guard and played mostly every game. The injury concerns are scary. And he was more a cog in the machine than a superstar along the Eagles’ loaded offensive line. He’s a big swing, and–personally–I’d rather draft a dude. But at least Saleh can vouch for his character from their time in NY.

WR, Amari Cooper, Bills: Cooper was a nonfactor after he got traded to the Bills, which is not a great look given the Bills’ receiver room. He’ll turn 31 before next season, he’s lost a step, and there’s a chance he’s just washed. But it was also a poor fit. The Bills’ offense is about horizontal and vertical stretches, giving up well-rounded ability for guys who can out-leverage defenders on shoot routes, crossers, and deep balls. This lets them take advantage of Josh Allen’s ability to put the ball anywhere at any time and–when the defense stretches itself thin enough to cover all these guys–rely on his size and speed to power the ball up the middle himself.

If Cooper has starter-level play left, he’d have a better chance of showing it in a scheme like ours, where he could use his high-level route-running skills and intermediate ability (he’s scored no worse than 91.7 on routes run 10-19 yards downfield for all ten years of his NFL career) to get open on drifts and sit routes. His short-area play has been up-and-down at times (last year = down) and drops will always be an issue. Also, I’m hesitant to add any wideout who could potentially block Ricky Pearsall’s development. But if we’re looking for someone to start early in the season and then step back into a lesser role once Aiyuk is fully healthy, Cooper could be a good fit. But–like Becton above–I would only be interested if his price point slipped down into the tier below.

CB, Mike Hilton, Bengals: Most Cincinnati fans would probably describe Hilton as a player on the decline, but the long-time elite nickel corner finished the season strong in an effort to prove that he’s still got some tread left on his tires. Long one of the league’s better nickel corners, Hilton was PFF’s 15th-best corner in this down year. If we think he’s still got some run in him and want a veteran presence (at a cheapish price), we could do worse. 

CB, Nate Hobbs, Raiders: Another nickel candidate, Hobbs was a stud manning the slot as a rookie, finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s #5 corner. But 2021 was a long time ago, especially given the lengthy string of injuries he’s faced in the past three years. Given his outside corner-like size (6-1 195 lbs.), he can mix it up in the run game and as a blitzer, but injuries are a lingering concern.

OG, Teven Jenkins, Bears: Jenkins has been a PFF Top 20 guard in each of the past three years—peaking at OG3 back in 2022—but availability has been an issue. While young and talented, he’s never played more than 14 games in a single season. That’s tolerable for some positions but can be quite difficult along the OL because linemen never come off the field and so few teams have viable backups. But at the right price? Certainly intriguing.

*DT, Osa Odighizuwa, Cowboys: In four years of (mostly) starting, Osa peaked at 4.5 sacks this season, but the underlying numbers point to much greater potential. His PFF scores are regularly strong, his 23 QB hits this season project closer to double-digit sacks, and–while the breakout hasn’t happened–his athletic traits and flashes fit our scheme like a glove. Like any free agent Cowboy defensive lineman, there’s work to be done against the run, but perhaps Dallas’ down year defensively can help us secure a dude on a multi-year deal who’s on the cusp of a breakthrough.
UPDATE = SIGNED 4-YR EXTENSION WITH COWBOYS

DT, Levi Onwuzurike, Lions: One of the last men standing on Detroit’s injury-ravaged defensive line, Onwuzurike’s 12.5% pass rush win rate this season was top 15 among DTs despite constantly dwindling talent around him. Somewhat ironically, injuries are a bit of a concern in his scouting report–having missed the entire 2022 season due to his back–but with Alim McNeil just extended at the same position, there’s a chance Levi hits the open market as an underrated gem.

*LB, Jamien Sherwood, Jets: At a listed 216 pounds, Sherwood is a large lunch bigger than most safeties, which makes some sense because he played that position in college. But his lack of size didn’t stop him from putting up career numbers after breaking into the starting lineup this season. Our affinity for converted safeties and the linebacker position is well known, and if Greenlaw departs, a plug-and-play starter is necessary. Besides, Saleh will know him better than anyone.

You’ll note there are only two linebackers on this entire list. This is actually a pretty good crop of veteran linebackers, but—unfortunately for us—most are either long in the tooth (Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David) or bad scheme fits (Nick Bolton, Robert Spillane). This points to few starting options for our scheme and even fewer long-term replacements if Dre Greenlaw departs in free agency.  

BARGAIN BUYS

CB, Paulson Adebo, Saints: The Niners love their Stanford guys, and Adebo–who was PFF’s 15th-best corner a year ago–could be had on the cheap after a broken femur derailed his ascension into free agency. With 7 picks and 28 pass deflections across his past 22 games, Adebo has some ballhawk in him. Given the injury–and recovery timeline–he feels destined for a one-year prove-it deal somewhere. If we don’t want to draft a starting corner or hang our hats on Darrell Luter’s development and health, kicking the can down the road a year isn’t a terrible idea.

DE, Derek Barnett, Texans: You may be surprised to hear that Barnett is still in the league. You may also be surprised to hear that he doesn’t turn 29 until after the draft. But the oldest 28-year-old in the NFL has quietly put together a pretty good two-season stretch with the Texans while manning the second unit behind their star defensive ends. He’s not a starter and his injury history is extensive, but he’s an established and reliable rotational player on the edge.

DE, Baron Browning, Cardinals: A trade deadline throwback, Browning made the move from hyper-athletic linebacker to freaky athletic defensive end back in 2022, and promptly posted a top 25 pressure rate over the next two years. But he’s been hampered by injuries ever since. There’s untapped potential here but also a lingering neck injury that requires HEAVY evaluation.

OG, James Daniels, Steelers: A consistent but unspectacular long-time starter, Daniels was playing easily the best football of his life before blowing out his Achilles in week 4. Seven years into his NFL career, it’s hard to say if Daniels’ September surge was a late-stage breakthrough or simply a product of variance that was destined to regress to the mean. But if he can recover from his injury, a 27-year-old multi-year starter at guard is worth something regardless.

DT, Poona Ford, Chargers: Ford had quite a run in Seattle but looked washed for two straight years before a 2024 resurgence (PFF DT5) under Jim Harbaugh and Mike Minter. He’s an undersized gap shooter with scheme experience (kind of) from his time with the Seahawks.

*DT, DJ Jones, Broncos: Our guy DJ never put it together as a pass rusher, failing to eclipse 4(!) QB hits in any given season, but his pass rush impact was always a notch better than his numbers would indicate, and he’s still a force against the run. He may not be the player he was when he left us three years ago, but he was always a better fit in our scheme than Denver’s. Given the need, a reunion seems possible.  

LB, Eric Kendricks, Cowboys: Try again this year?

*DE, Dayo Odeyingbo, Colts: One of the best athletes in the 2021 draft class, Dayo went down to an Achilles injury in a pre-draft workout, which slowed his development. However, he’s peaking at the right time, playing in all 17 games each of the past three seasons and securing 17 QB hits in both of the past two—that’s more QB hits than any Non-Bosa Niner has registered since Arden Key in 2021. He’s young and could be poised for a breakout season, a combination that teams typically covet, so I’m a little surprised I haven’t heard more about him this off-season. Perhaps I’m vastly underestimating his market, but I’d happily take a swing on him—even at a price a tier above this one.

DE, Azeez Ojulari, Giants: Ojulari, who was also featured in my trade deadline writeup, is an interesting prospect. His athletic skills are excellent and his raw numbers–given limited snaps–are quite good, with six sacks this past year and 22 over his first four years in the league. But his advanced stats don’t back up those numbers, his size (240 pounds) is a question mark as a true edge, and you wonder why he never made more of an impact in New York. Cause, you know, they suck. This is a case where you gotta trust your scouting department and make sure the price is right, as he seems equally likely to break out or get buried on a depth chart on a multi-year deal. 

DT, Jarran Reed, Seahawks: When we’re talking about still-talented but older guys whose value could get pushed down by a plethora of interior defenders in both free agency and the draft, we’re functionally talking about Jarran Reed. Long gone are the days when you’d hope he might crest double-digit sacks, but Reed has quietly put together 27 QB hits and 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons. There’s still some juice there.

CB, Asante Samuel Jr., Chargers: See: Adebo, Paulson. Another young corner with a lot of good tape whose serious injury concerns during a contract year could put him in the one-year prove-it deal market.

*WR, Darius Slayton, Giants: People often ask the importance of a fourth wideout–especially on a team that runs as much heavy personnel as we do. But in our offense–which spreads the ball around and rarely force-feeds our top receiver–the value comes in that fourth receiver’s ability to consistently beat the defense’s fourth-best cover guy. 

Stuck in the passing purgatory known as the New York Giants, Slayton isn’t a No.1 receiver. He probably shouldn’t be a No.2 either. But he’s a slippery athlete with enough size, speed, and skill to secure a rotational role lining up at any number of receiver positions. In the past, that swing role has largely been played by one-dimensional older receivers like Chris Conley or Travis Benjamin and limited late-round picks like Ronnie Bell. Slayton would be a sizable upgrade over either of those archetypes, and he could serviceably play major snaps early in the season before falling into a more situational role once Aiyuk returns. The fact that his targets–however sparse they may be–could feasibly be thrown to all three levels, would be icing on the cake. 

DE, Josh Uche, Chiefs: What an odd journey for Uche, a guy who had 11.5 sacks as a speed specialist in his third year in the league, only to get traded two years later and be a healthy scratch for the Chiefs through the back half of the season. Uche’s breakout year always had some flukiness to it (only 11.5 sacks on only 14 QB hits), but his speed and bend are real. Like Ojulari, you worry about his size (240 pounds) as a full-time edge and lack of regular playing time, but it’s hard to believe he can’t at least be a subpackage speedster somewhere in the league. 

DEEP DIVES

DE, Dennis Gardeck, Cardinals: You ever watch the Cardinals (not by choice) and some white guy on defense with long hair makes a play? Gardeck is probably that white guy. A torn ACL midway through the year killed some of his free-agent momentum, but he’s a proven commodity along the defensive line. His lack of size and ideal athleticism may make for a tough fit in our scheme, but figured he was at least worth mentioning.

DT, Chauncey Golston, Cowboys: Adding a 268-pound defensive tackle who has been an absolute sieve against the run probably isn’t the best way to fix our floundering run defense, but the athletic profile is good and he’s shown flashes as a pass rusher. He just might be relegated to third-down work.

*S, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Lions: I don’t expect us to spend big on a free agent safety as that’s not really how our defense is built, but if we wanted a veteran presence to push Ji’Ayir Brown for snaps, we could do a lot worse than Melifonwu. The 26-year-old was PFF’s 8th-ranked safety during his breakout 2023 season but missed the first two months of this season with an ankle injury and struggled once he returned. There’s high-end potential here. It just comes with risk.

WR, Elijah Moore, Browns: The highly touted college speedster showed plenty of promise as a rookie but was quickly shipped out of New York due to attitude issues and never found his footing in Cleveland. While it would be easy to blame Cleveland’s overall dysfunction for his shortcomings, this is a guy who was top 10 in the league in pass snaps played this season but could only register 538 yards and 8.8 yards/catch. The issues that led to his ouster from New York could strike him from our list and the breakout seems less and less likely each passing year, but I’m sure there are plenty of teams who liked him as a draft prospect and are willing to roll the dice.

WR, Joshua Palmer, Chargers: The Chargers are severely lacking in offensive firepower but may be letting Palmer walk. That’s not an incredible testament to his ability. To be honest, I’ve never really been much of a fan but I do think part of that is due to him being miscast (by injuries) as a leading man. We can do better, but we can also do worse. And if we’re worried about not having enough weapons out wide while Aiyuk rehabs his knee, at least we know Palmer can start some games. Even if we’d prefer he didn’t.

DT, Tershawn Wharton, Chiefs: Another undersized pass rush specialist with some serious issues against the run, Wharton peaked in a contract year, posting 11 QB hits and 6.5 sacks rushing from the interior. 

BEST GUESSES

How serious will the Niners be about addressing the offensive line this off-season? We may not know until the draft comes along, but adding Dalman would send quite the signal. I’m not saying it’s expected or even that it’s likely. But the fit makes a lot of sense.

Despite a strong crop of defensive linemen in this upcoming draft class, adding one or two veterans to the rotation won’t stop us from slamming the position group come draft time. I would expect us to do exactly that, adding a two-deep player on the edge and a run stopper on the interior before looking for more foundational pieces come draft time.

Defensive back and receiver seem like two other positions where we’ll add vets—even if those vets may be more depth pieces than starters. A reclamation project corner makes some sense given the team’s hopes for Luter. While a flexible receiver who can still contribute once Aiyuk returns would give us both depth and early-season offense.

Go Niners 🏈👍

Free Agency Primer

Lots to do in free agency, so let’s get to it. The Niners have 31 pending free agents, a number that seems overwhelming until you remember how many of those guys are depth players on short-term deals (Nick McCloud, anyone?). Still–if we include Deebo and Hargrave–we have six starters and a handful of important backups and rotational pieces who could depart this off-season. For a team that’s used to a high amount of roster continuity, that qualifies as significant change. So before we dive into other teams’ free agents, let’s look at how we might approach our own expiring contracts.

The Cap

Per usual, everything starts and ends with the salary cap, a number that has yet to be finalized but should be announced sometime in the next week or so. Best guesses have it landing somewhere around $275M, so that’s the number we’ll use for these purposes.

After finishing last season with the most cap space in the NFL, we enter this off-season with $50.4M available–good for 10th in the league. But a lot of that money is already earmarked.

Upcoming moves with Hargrave and Deebo are incoming. Cutting Hargrave–if designated as a June 1st cut–won’t change his cap hit much but will push a dead cap charge of $17.5M into next year. While Deebo’s cap figure ($15.8M) will likely double if we trade him–as trades can’t be designated June 1st, and it’s hard to imagine us holding him through the draft to get to that date organically. Let’s say a Hargrave post-June 1st cut and a Deebo trade shave another $16M off our cap space. 

Kittle’s in the last year of his deal, and any (highly likely) extension would save us some money this season. Given his cap hit ($22M), an aggressive extension could net us an additional $10M+ in space. Fred Warner–whose $29M cap hit leads our team–has two more years on his contract but could also be in line for an extension to lower his cap figure. Let’s assume both guys get extended and–for ease of discussion–we do it conservatively and those new deals offset the $16M dead cap spike from trading Deebo.

Then, of course, there’s Purdy’s upcoming deal. There’s been some talk that Brock’s extension could resemble the shorter, less backloaded contract that Daniel Jones got a few years back. If that’s the case, we’d hedge on Purdy’s ability and save future cap flexibility at the expense of limiting present-day spending. While that’s certainly possible, don’t rule out the kind of backloaded deal that I outlined earlier, which would likely give Purdy a cap hit of no greater than $10M this season. It’s a riskier proposition in case Purdy’s play tanks, but given how we’ve operated in the past, the number of players we have in their primes and late primes, and how confident the team sounds in Purdy’s ability, that kind of structure still feels likely. Remember, if you believe in the player, slamming void years is effectively an interest-free loan. The Niners are a financially aggressive team. I don't think that changes here.

If Purdy signs a shorter, less backloaded deal then he’ll take up a sizable chunk of the cap and we’ll have little to spend on free agents. If we backload his deal into void years, we could have enough cap space to spend on one big fish or–more likely–a collection of pieces–including but not limited to our own free agents. Regardless of deal structure, I would guess that we spend free agency patching up holes, taking upside swings, and filling roster depth, rather than big game hunting. While the cap space could be there to pursue a Tee Higgins type, this feels more like the type of season where we make sure the books are (somewhat) in order for long-term sustainability.

Our Guys

As the unabashed conductor of the Dre Greenlaw hype train, I obviously want him back. If there’s any faith whatsoever that he can return healthy, the Niners should want him back as well. This need has only been exacerbated by the hiring of Saleh and our recommitment to a defensive scheme that relies heavily on rangy linebackers. Against the run, our linebackers’ ability to fill holes up and down the line of scrimmage allows our defensive line to line up wide and aggressively shoot gaps. Linebackers who lack speed or instincts can be slow to fill an interior hole—magnifying the weakness of our wide DL splits—or get beat to the edge—messing up all of our support angles. In the passing game, our linebackers’ ability to get deep and wide in coverage lets our DBs play everything top-down because they know they have so much help on digs and crossers. This squeezes out the middle of the field and forces teams to rely on short, out-breaking timing routes outside the hashes—the kind of passes that require rhythm and patience, that have little-to-no YAC potential, and that can be picked-sixed by a trap coverage. But when we have linebackers who can’t play in space (cough, cough, DeVondre Campbell), the middle of the field opens up for larger gains, which then leads to deep balls as the DBs get over-aggressive and missed tackles on checkdowns because our linebackers aren’t as fast to the ball and our second-level support is all out of whack. Subpar linebacker play has a serious trickle-down effect in this defense.

In the past, we’ve been lucky to have Azeez Al-Shaiir or Kwon Alexander coming off the bench as our third linebacker when Dre has missed time. Perhaps Dee Winters can be that guy. But if Dre is gone and Winters—who has his own injury problems—is our full-time starter, we are perilously thin behind him and will have a third linebacker with a giant target on his back whenever we’re not in nickel packages. The Niners know better than any of us how healthy Dre is. Let’s hope the answer is “very” and the result is an extension for our guy.

I’d consider Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks, and Elijah Mitchell near certain departures. Ward just had a tragic year off the field and all his post-season comments point to a locker room that he loves but a place that is so steeped in trauma that his partner won’t even step foot in San Jose. Best of luck to him and his family moving forward. NFL execs are (mostly) not stupid. They should know his play will rebound closer to 2023 levels once his life stabilizes off the field. He’s likely to get rightfully paid out and net us a third- or fourth-round comp pick next year. 

Banks is solid but kinda leveled out after his breakthrough second year. That’s not typically the sort of player and position combo that we shell out for in free agency. There’s a chance he gets a decent deal on the market–likely in a gap scheme where he doesn’t have to play as much in space—and could do well in a more downhill rushing attack. Mitchell was great when healthy, but “when healthy” has unfortunately become a disqualifier. Hopefully, he can get back on track somewhere else. 

The Niners like Talanoa Hufanga enough that they started him over Ji’Ayir Brown once he returned from injury, but given the presence of our two young safeties and the word out of the Senior Bowl that the Niners will be looking to get faster on defense, it feels like Huf will likely get a better deal somewhere else. The market for him will be interesting, as many teams believe speed is required for high-level safety play, but he’s also a former First-Team All-Pro. Let’s call him a probable departure, like a Spirit Airlines flight. Maybe it takes off. But maybe not!

Many of our other free agents are rotational players who I’d consider “right price guys.” Granted, I genuinely believe that the Niners would want their entire free agent class back at the “right price.” Except for you, DeVondre Campbell. Not you. But the guys below should net less open market demand and are thus more likely to come back.

There’s been a lot of (rightful) talk about how we have to address the offensive line this off-season. The first step may be keeping some of our depth pieces in place so that it doesn’t get even worse next year. I’d expect us to retain Ben Bartch, Austen Pleasants, and Charlie Heck–all guys who cost functionally nothing and showed just enough to warrant another look but not nearly enough for us to be at all confident that any of them are more than stop-gap starters. Bring all three back, see how they perform in camp, and maybe someone surprises you.

Outside of the offensive line, I’d throw Kevin Givens and Eric Saubert in this boat. I’m sure the Niners are hoping for a tight end upgrade in this draft class, but for a team that often rosters three of the position, locking up one on the cheap feels likely. Givens has kind of plateaued in his second-line role and could get pushed out by a numbers game down the road, but—at the moment—those numbers are quite thin. Chris Conley is here too because he knows the playbook and we’re not in a spot to jettison strong special teams players. He also fills our “X receiver who threatens deep but never gets the ball” role on offense—totaling 239 snaps of offense last year. His status could change based on how we approach replacing Deebo, but—for now—Conley feels safe. One of our quarterbacks is likely to return, I’ll guess Josh Dobbs. And while the Niners would love it if Darrell Luter Jr. emerged to take one of those three starting corner positions next year, I wouldn’t be shocked if any of our veteran corners (Isaac Yiadom, Rock Ya-Sin) comes back–likely on the practice squad—if their market doesn’t materialize. If we don’t re-sign one of those corners before the draft, we can hope that means Luter is finally healthy and ready to perform. 

Jaylon Moore would be in the above category, but for now, I’ll classify his situation as “playing the field.” Moore started five games for us at left tackle and played pretty dang well–certainly the best he’s looked so far in his young career. That could result in someone paying him to compete for a starting job elsewhere. Moore’s situation is a microcosm of our issues along the OL: too many playables, not enough dudes. Playables are great–as there are far too few in the NFL, particularly along the offensive line–but you can’t build a roster out of them. Moore was a well-liked prospect out of college who fell to us in the fifth round. Maybe he’s a late bloomer and there’s still untapped potential in his game. Maybe he caps out as something like a pass-pro-leaning Colton McKivitz. But at worst, he’s a playable swing tackle. Those are valuable. If Moore leaves for a potential starter salary, we’ll get a decent comp pick in return. But if he leaves on a relatively meager deal, that could signal that the Niners are serious about drafting a tackle this spring… or that we’ll be screwed if either of our tackles gets hurt come fall. Either one.

Jordan Mason also gets clumped in here because of his odd contract situation. With CMC and Guerendo both having significant injury questions, it would make sense to retain Mason–who was one of the league’s leading rushers in the short time he started for us. But the staff is rightfully high on Guerendo, meaning Mason’s value next year could fluctuate anywhere from our RB3 to one of the league’s top rushers. How do you value that kind of variance?

This is further convoluted by Mason’s status as a restricted free agent. Per RFA tender estimations, we’d have to offer him $5.2M to ensure a second round pick if someone outbids us. But while the money doesn’t seem outrageous for a potential suitor, the second round compensation–especially in a loaded RB draft class–is a nonstarter. We could also tender him with the $3.1M right of first refusal to let us match any offer that comes in. But since Mason was an undrafted free agent, we’d get zero compensation if he walks. Finally, there’s a third option: we don’t tender him at all and just let him test free agency. If someone pays him enough to be a part of a backfield by committee, we may net a comp pick in return. If they don’t, we could feasibly take him back on the cheap. This last option feels the most likely to me, especially given the surplus of rookie talent that’s coming down the pipeline.

Finally, we have our cut candidates. Hargrave and Deebo are expected. Any of the guys we added along the DL last year—other than Maliek Collins—could also be gone depending on how we approach the position group. Neither our kicker nor our punter seems safe, but I doubt we see a move away from either until we get through the draft and into camp. And lastly, don’t sleep on Juice, who already took a pay cut last season, will turn 34 in April, and is staring down a draft loaded with tight end/h-back prospects. Juice’s spot is a difficult one to fill. There are not a lot of guys who can execute the complexity of blocks that he can while still being a threat when split out wide. But his snap counts have steadily diminished over the past four years, and there’s reason to believe that the offense may be shifting away from the Swiss Army knife capabilities he’s so well known for. Just like with Deebo, everyone loves Juice. But if both depart this off-season, it could signal some legitimate schematic changes moving forward. Again, I love both those players and it would be sad to see them go, but a freshening up of our offense could be necessary.

Next, we’ll talk about potential free agent fits.

Go Niners 🏈👍

Off-Season Needs

The winds of change are (kind of) upon us, and the Niners have a lot of decisions to make this off-season to get back into contention. It’s far from an impossible task. Just look at the Eagles. They were trounced in the wild card a year ago and just won a Super Bowl despite having a soggy hoagie as their head coach. But there are important moves to be made to have any shot at returning to contention and finally getting over the hump.

The Deebo Dilemma. Before I get into our roster needs, the Deebo Samuel situation is worth mentioning, as he and his agent were just given permission to search out a trade partner.

First off, this doesn’t guarantee that a trade will be made. One negotiating tactic for teams–as seen most recently with Lamar Jackson’s latest extension–is to let a player’s reps look for deals so that they can set their own market. People like to imagine that Lamar Jackson was open for business two years ago, but all he was really doing was setting a figure for the Ravens to match. Any team wanting to sign him would have had to vastly overpay that mark and give up multiple first round picks in exchange. It was more of a negotiating ploy than anything else. In this case, Deebo is very much open for business, but there are more moving pieces than people like to think.

Unsurprisingly, cap implications will play a part in all this. And because of the timing of a roster bonus in Deebo’s contract, there’s a real chance this latest off-season saga will be done mercifully quickly.

If the 49ers want to avoid Deebo’s $15.4m option, they have to jettison the contract before 3/22.

Doing so — via either trade or cut — would mean accelerating the $31.5m in prorated cap hits to hit this season.

A post-6/1 cut doesn’t reduce the dead money. It simply staves some…

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) February 9, 2025

All this seemingly points to a March 22nd deadline. But as cap maneuvering gets more complicated and less publicly transparent, even that is murkier than it would seem. So perhaps March 22nd is a deadline or maybe it’s just a benchmark in what could be yet another off-season saga that strings out longer than we’d like. The plus side is that—unlike with Aiyuk—if Deebo gets traded it should happen (at the latest) by draft time. Then again… this is the team that kept Jimmy G into the 2022 season because we didn’t like our trade return. And that—somehow—paid off with some quality starts and a solid comp pick down the road. If there’s a chance to do something weird and awkward that may or may not work but will certainly make some people uncomfortable, don’t put it past the Niners to give it a shot.

But what could Deebo net us in return? Honestly, I have no idea. Deebo is such a unique player that you’d imagine whoever trades for him would have a specific plan to get him into space as much as possible—most likely as the second fiddle to an established No.1 on a team that sees mostly zone coverage.

Former Niners’ lieutenants are always an option. Miami—with their commitment to receiver speed—sees as much zone coverage as anyone. Perhaps Mike McDaniel wants a powerful underneath option to complement the speedy skinny dudes who populate their receiving room? The Texans will likely be down two of their top three receiving options next season, with Diggs a free agent and Tank Dell looking at a lengthy rehab. And many expect the Commanders to make a splash, as they have a ton of cap space, a star QB on a rookie deal, and a legit need for a No.2 wideout opposite McLaurin.

Outside of the Niners’ extended universe, Denver has been floated, largely due to Sean Payton’s love of positionless skill players. The Steelers have at least been mentioned; they’ve been looking for a wideout opposite Pickens for quite some time now. And don’t count out teams that are further from contention but run by guys who are desperate to keep their jobs. Like the Giants, who have a No.1 wideout but will want to gather as much help as possible for the rookie QB they’re about to throw into the fire.

Deebo’s value will likely vary wildly from team to team, which makes it almost impossible to predict a legitimate landing spot or trade compensation. If I had to guess, I’d say the Niners would be happy taking back a second day pick in exchange. Will they get that? Who knows. But unless negotiations with his team get salty in a hurry, I don’t think this will come down to him being released.

A year ago, Stefon Diggs (and two Day 3 picks) were traded for a second rounder. A few months ago, Amari Cooper was flipped for a third round pick and a future seventh. Diontae Johnson—known headcase—was swapped for a fifth rounder before promptly becoming even more of a headcase and getting cut (twice). Regardless of what you think of Deebo’s 2024 season, it’s hard to argue he wasn’t better than Cooper and Johnson. And unlike Diggs, he isn’t coming off a season ending injury. Add on a contract that only pays him $16M next year, and we should get something in return.

It’s a bummer of an ending for Deebo’s tenure with the 49ers. He’s been one of my favorite players for years, but I don’t know how much he legitimately has left. And given how extensively teams have worked to limit his effectiveness within our particular scheme, a change of scenery could make sense for all involved. If/when Deebo gets moved, expect us to add another receiver. But I wouldn’t call it a pressing need. Aiyuk will return, Jennings has emerged as a legitimate No.2, and we spent two draft picks on the position just last year. A mid-round pick with good upside isn’t out of the question, but on the free agency front, I’d expect a depth signing like Darius Slayton or Robert Woods as much more likely than a big name such as Tee Higgins. This is not a situation where Deebo’s departure would cause us to scramble for a one-for-one replacement, which is largely the reason it’s happening in the first place.

ROSTER NEEDS

Offensive Line: They say an elite quarterback raises the ceiling of an offense. Well, an elite offensive line raises its floor. And we saw far too clearly what the floor looked like this season.

The zone/stretch running game was built by Shanahan the Elder to get outsized value out of undersized and undervalued linemen. Broncos OL legends like Dan Neil (3rd round), Tom Nalen (7th), and Mark Schlereth (10th) were all draft steals who checked in under 290 pounds. So it should surprise no one that Shanahan the Younger has taken a similar approach. In the eight drafts of the ShanaLynch era, the Niners have–to the chagrin of many–selected only three offensive linemen on the first two days of the draft. But times change.

As teams commit more heavily to push us out of our run and play-action game and into more dropback passing, the offensive line has become a problem. And as more teams jump on the zone/stretch train, those undersized but impressively athletic draft gems have started going earlier and earlier in drafts. While I don’t expect the Niners to drastically shift their team-building philosophy (OL coach Chris Foerster’s comments last off-season were telling), the best way to raise the floor of our offense is to improve in the trenches. And improve we must. 

Our offensive line is interesting in that I like a lot of our depth pieces. Our bench has plenty of young(ish) backups like Spencer Burford and impending free agents Ben Bartch and Jaylon Moore–guys who have done good things in spot starts but who you can’t commit to as full-time starters. The problem is the frontline.

Trent Williams is still an A+ when healthy, but he missed the majority of last season and will turn 37 in the summer. We saw quite clearly how much oomph we lost at the point of attack when he was gone, and it would be smart to plan for the future in a way that insulates us in case that happens again.

Dominick Puni–who will likely move over to left guard to pair with Williams–is a B+ who is trending upwards. He was a unanimous All-Rookie selection and finished the season as PFF’s 7th-ranked guard. He has improvements to make, but he’s well on his way to being a foundational building block. 

I’m assuming Aaron Banks leaves in free agency, so that would make Colton McKivitz our third-best lineman. Which isn’t really where we wanna be. To be fair to McKivitz, he played better this season than I thought he was capable of. He is never gonna be dominant in either facet and he’ll likely always have some ugly blow-bys in pass pro, but he cut down his pressure count (47 to 36) and sack count (9 to 2) from a year ago while improving his game across the board. I’m cool with McKivitz starting for us again this year. We can win with that. But with Williams missing the time he did last year, McKivitz was our second-best lineman. We cannot win with that.

Lastly, Jake Brendel continues to be a solid run blocker and a bottom-end pass-blocker. But the whiffs are tough and they’re getting tougher. Brendel allowed the 7th-most pressures among centers a year ago and the sixth-most this season. In 2024, he was also the second-most penalized center in the league–sandwiched between two rookies. For a scheme that has long appreciated elite center play, we desperately need an upgrade. 

Outlook: Unfortunately, this draft is considered relatively weak along the offensive line. On the bright side, we have so many holes, we can be flexible. If we draft a guy and we’re not sure if he’s a guard or a tackle, McKivitz’s ability to kick inside means we can play him at either. Or he can start at guard while training to be an eventual tackle and McKivitz can stay outside. And since we’re picking all the way up at 11, we only need to give a few tackles a first-round grade to make addressing the OL with our first pick a strong possibility. We are notoriously picky with selecting offensive linemen, but we did take Mike McGlinchey at #10 in 2018. So it is possible. And by god will we be praying for it.

IMO, our goal should be to add two new starters. with at least one possessing high-end upside. I don’t think that’s a big ask given where we’re picking and how many selections we have. Perhaps one of our many depth pieces can win a competition for that fifth spot along the offensive line and surprise us, meaning we only need one spot to fill. Or maybe we can unearth two starters in one class–starting centers in particular can often be found on day two. With seven picks in the first four rounds, that’s certainly possible. Whatever the answer is, our offensive line must improve. 

Defensive Line: The one big drawback of Saleh’s reunion is knowing that we’ll have to be dominant up front to return to an elite-level defense. That’s just how this scheme operates. And last year, we were far from dominant. 

We finished 2024 ranked 24th in sacks (37), 18th in knockdown rate (8.3%), and 24th in pressure rate (20.5%). That was the worst knockdown rate we’ve had since 2020 and the worst pressure rate since before PFR started recording the stat in 2018. Then there was the run game.

Our problems against the run weren’t solely the fault of our defensive line. We had a lot of issues with off-ball run fits–especially from the secondary–and the loss of Greenlaw versus the run was made apparent during his brief cameo against the Rams. But the DL didn’t do us any favors.

Our need to fortify the trenches is doubly important because of how often we rotate bodies along the defensive line. Which means we need an influx of numbers. Like the offensive line, we have several dudes already on the roster who could be viable two-deep contributors next year. Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Maliek Collins varied in how long they took to get going, but they all had their moments. Evan Anderson and Sam Okuayinonu were both great budget finds and rotation pieces. But how many of those guys do you want starting alongside Bosa? One? Maybe two if the fourth guy on the line has genuine star potential?

We need frontline talent. And that need will only be exacerbated if we can’t re-sign Hargrave on a smaller deal after cutting him later this spring. One new starter and one specialist/heavy rotation player with upside seems like a reasonable ask and a good place to start.

Outlook: Edge rushers are always at a premium, and this free agent class is no exception. If we want a premiere edge rusher, it should come as no surprise to anyone that we’ll likely have to spend our first or second-round pick to get one. But there should be plenty of defensive tackles available on the open market and in the incoming crop of rookies. This year, it’s perhaps the single deepest position group in both free agency and the draft. 

Similar to the offensive line, don’t be surprised if we spend two picks in the first two days of the draft fortifying our defensive front. But I’d also expect us to add a body or two–likely on the cheaper side–in free agency. With the loaded draft class and the surplus of free agent DTs, we should be able to find some buy-low candidates without bloating our cap or messing up our comp pick return for next year.

Tight End/H-Back: The long-awaited search for a Kittle running mate continues. And while a second tight end may seem like a luxury given the other holes in our roster, there’s still plenty of untapped potential in a Shanahan-led offense that can feasibly run heavy amounts of double-tight formations.

The need is increased by the fact that both Juice and Kittle are getting older. And the price tag is decreased by the fact that whoever we add doesn’t have to play major snaps right away. Would it be cool if he did? Well, yeah. But unlike offensive or defensive line, it’s not a requirement. Tight ends often come along slowly. All the more reason to add one sooner rather than later.

Outlook: Most free agent classes are bad at tight end, including this one. But this draft class is ripe with high-upside potential starters. There’s currently a large cluster of prospects competing for the TE3 spot, many whom look like they may have the natural receiving ability and athleticism to fit within our scheme. There is one prospect who will likely be around at 11 who I bet Shanahan likes quite a bit, but I’ll get to him another time. For now, a day 2 pick on a tight end seems to make the most sense. Or perhaps at the top of day 3 if the number of viable options continues to rise.

Third cornerback: Part of the reason why the Lenoir extension got done when it did is because the Niners loved his ability to play inside or out. This will let us be picky (and flexible) in finding the third member of our starting group.

There’s an argument that the third corner is already on the roster. The staff has long been high on Darrell Luter, but his inability to see the field over his first two years in the league should temper expectations. There’s another argument that the third corner was already on the roster, but we let him hit waivers on cut-down day last summer. Samuel Womack–who emerged so quickly back in 2022 that we cut ties with our then-starting nickel in the preseason–was one of our last cuts and was quickly swooped off waivers by the Colts. Within a month, he was their starting outside corner, finishing the season as PFF’s 26th-best corner with a 71.9 rating. It wasn’t as bad as the DJ Reed fiasco, but it certainly had some similarities.

Regardless, we’ll need someone to fill the shoes of Ward and Yiadom, whether he plays inside or out. 

Outlook: Per usual, the Niners are not likely to spend a premium pick at the position. We might look twice if someone with high-end No.1 corner traits falls to us, but I’d guess this is a hole we fill with an established vet or in the middle rounds. Flexibility here is key. Great nickel corners are great but decent ones are not particularly hard to find, nor expensive.

This often applies to rookies as well. Cooper DeJean, a prospect basically everyone liked as a nickel but who some thought was limited to the inside, fell to the top of the second round in a thin cornerback class last year. He excelled immediately. But he did so playing entirely inside. A similar story unfolded a year earlier with Brian Branch, who quickly became one of the best nickels in the game. 

That’s not to say that another DeJean or Branch exists in this class or that we have to pick someone in the second in order to get that kind of production. But it is to say you can find the position at value if you know where to look. My guess is we scour the back-end of the free agent class for a Rock Ya-Sin/Yiadom type player—a guy who has started meaningful games in the league but who can be had on the cheap. Then we approach the draft and hope to get a better and younger option somewhere in the middle rounds.

Linebacker: This only becomes a need if Dre Greenlaw walks, but–if he does–it becomes a substantial one. I like Dee Winters. As a coverage linebacker, he’s already there. As a run defender, he has hustle, but he has a ways to go in terms of finishing and fitting runs directly at him. He’s got potential, but he’s not Greenlaw. He also has an extensive injury history. 

We line up mostly in nickel, but we don’t live in it like some other teams. Our second and third linebackers need to play. And even when we’ve dropped down into our 4-2-5, our second linebacker needs to excel in coverage. We saw quite clearly in the Super Bowl and most of last year what happens when we don’t have a space player in that role. They get hard-targeted in the passing game and that snowballs in a way that makes it difficult for our defense to get off the field. 

Outlook: Uh… re-sign Greenlaw? There are some intriguing prospects in this draft class, and we have an exceptional track record of finding and developing linebackers in the latter rounds. Warner (3rd round), Greenlaw (5th), Winters (6th), and Azeez Al-Shaair (Undrafted) are all massive scouting and coaching wins. But, other than Greenlaw, they all took time to develop. This feels like a draft where we’re taking a linebacker, but that doesn’t mean it should be a year where we’re expecting that guy to start right away.

If we don’t have faith in Greenlaw’s health moving forward, that’s one thing. But if he can still play at the level we’re used to seeing, this isn’t the time to dick around. Just re-sign the man. 

Go Niners 🏈👍

Learning From Thy Enemies

live feed of my rooting interests during the game

In football, everyone’s looking to be ahead of the curve, not on the backside of it. But in doing so, it’s important to discern outliers from trends and trends from universal truths. The Niners have been both good at this–starting the resurgence in star feature backs with the CMC acquisition, our entire offensive scheme–and bad–drafting Trey Lance for his mobility and big arm, everything involving special teams. 

This Super Bowl was littered with takeaways–some legitimate team-building lessons and others powered more by fortunate circumstances. As always, it’s important to differentiate between the two lest we go down the wrong path. So before we dive into our roster needs, let’s try to separate genuine takeaways from fool’s gold through the lens of the Super Bowl.

TRUTHS

You Win In The Trenches. Football is still a game that is won—most commonly—along the offensive and defensive lines. If this game didn’t hammer that home, try to remember the last Super Bowl champion who was worse along both lines. A lot went into the Eagles’ blowout, but the primary factor was this–they dominated both lines of scrimmage. This is vitally important for us to understand as we approach an off-season where we have significant holes on both lines.

Rosters are Built Through the Draft. Yes, the Eagles have a few big name free agent/trade contributors–namely Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown–but depth and staying power is ALWAYS built through the draft. After some notable whiffs early in his tenure, Howie Roseman has built up the most talented roster in football by accumulating picks and making intelligent value plays–particularly in the first two days of the draft.

It’s Fine To Make Mistakes, As Long As You Learn From Them. But let’s talk about those whiffs. Roseman had some massive misses early, especially at wide receiver–JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Jalen Raegor, Nelson Agholor–and when choosing and extending the wrong franchise quarterback (Carson Wentz). These mistakes set the Eagles back but didn’t cripple them because he was able to recognize the mistakes, jettison them, and correct them. After all those wideout misses, Roseman promptly traded for an established top-tier veteran at a low price (AJ Brown) and then drafted a Heisman winner in the first round (Devonta Smith). He learned the importance of the position and addressed it accordingly. 

This Is What It Looks Like When the Chiefs Are Called for Holding. Once more for those in the cheap seats. The Chiefs have come out like this in the first half of four of their five Super Bowls. We’ve seen this before. The big difference this time was that the refs didn’t allow them to hold their way back into this game. How many uncalled holds and pick plays on third down have we seen that jumpstart the Chiefs? That get them back into games that could otherwise become blowouts? We’ve now had two Super Bowls where the refs call the Chiefs for holding—where they actually make them play the same game as the other team—and they just so happen to be Chief blowout losses where they got overwhelmed by an opposing pass rush. The Eagles were considerably cleaner and more dominant than we were in either of our matchups against KC, but they also got to play in a game that was appropriately officiated (and where the Chiefs even had some ticky-tack calls against them). That makes all the difference. If you still don’t think those calls matter, that they can swing a would-be blowout into a nailbiter, and that those calls have overwhelmingly benefited the Chiefs (especially against us) and laid the foundation for their dynasty, I don’t know what to tell you.

LIES

Winning Only Close Games Just Means You’re “Clutch.” Actually, it probably just means you’re lucky. And the more extreme your run of one-score wins becomes, the more extreme your regression to the mean is likely to be. Just like that first Rams Super Bowl run, this Chiefs team was far too good at winning games that could have been decided by a single bad bounce of an oblong football. We like to attribute that to some preternatural skill, when—realistically—it mostly comes down to luck. The regression was coming. And boy did it ever.

An Elite QB Means You Don’t Need Skill Players. We saw it with Josh Allen the week before and with Mahomes yesterday/this entire season. You can’t just throw the ball to absolute randos and expect that to work. Just like an offensive line needs to block, receivers need to get open. To be fair, Mahomes played HORRIBLY in the Super Bowl, but—on a macro level—there’s only so much scheming you can do to get guys open when you’ve pieced your receiver corps together with duct tape and bubble gum and your future Hall of Fame tight end can only get open against soft zone and with the aid of pick routes. This trend feels like the natural overreaction to an overemphasis (and overpayment) of the quarterback position meeting GMs big-braining themselves into thinking they’ve cracked the code. Speaking of which…

You Can Get By With Shitty Tackles. If the Chiefs had won this game, we were about to see a bunch of GMs try to Moneyball themselves into thinking you could “hack” an elite offense by spending big on the interior OL, cheaping out on offensive tackles, and leaning on an inside rushing game and a mobile QB to make their lesser tackles “right” in pass pro. It didn’t matter that the Chiefs offense was far from elite this season. Or that—for much of the year—they weren’t even good. The wins and—in this alternate reality—the Super Bowl would have sent many a GM down this dark path. But after the Chiefs’ OL was so thoroughly extinguished last night, that’s no longer likely to happen.

KC spent all season being “just good enough” on offense, finding peak (yet plodding) efficiency late in games by relying on an interior power run game and letting Mahomes avoid the first guy that their woeful tackles let through. Late in the season, they pushed Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle, improving their offense by providing it one decent tackle but giving up interior dominance in the process and creating a red flag at left guard with his replacement. Their problem at tackle was so bad that they had to break up their one dominant position group—the interior OL—to fix it. This change seemed to work, but only because they went up against teams that weren’t talented enough upfront to exploit it.

While it seems insane, the Chiefs had far more yards in the Super Bowl than they did in their divisional round win against the Texans. And while some of that was effectively in garbage time, the big difference in the two outcomes were backbreaking turnovers and the Texan’s offense imploding opposite their defensive effort. We knew that this offensive line structure shouldn’t be able to sustain itself for a championship run because we assumed that—at some point—the Chiefs would run into a good defensive line paired with a functional offense (or just hold that defensive line repeatedly and get away with it).

OUTLIERS

It’s Fine To Have Glaring Holes in Your Scheme. Speaking of lucking into matchups, I wouldn’t take too much away from Jalen Hurts’ Super Bowl stat line or the Eagles’ passing numbers as a whole. Props to him and the rest of the team for doing what they do best, but they also ran into a matchup where they didn’t have to do anything they’re bad at. Powered by an elite offensive line, Saqon, and Hurts’ legs, this Eagles team can run with the best of them. And when defenses are keying that run game, they can throw the deep ball outside and over the top with their two No.1 receivers and underrated tight end. But they cannot, for the life of them, throw over the middle or hit timing routes.

In this case, it didn’t matter. The Chiefs’ wide array of bracket coverages are made mostly to stop inside-breaking routes. The type of routes the Eagles don’t throw. And any would-be double coverages were made moot by the fact that they needed numbers in the box to stop the run. You can’t bracket someone on a go route without putting yourself wildly out of position against everything else, and the result was a lot of one-on-one deep balls to two receivers who specialize in exactly that.

The Eagles were able to run train on the Chiefs because they were considerably more talented and the Chiefs couldn’t matchup against any of their weaknesses. Good on the Eagles for building a roster and scheme that can punish teams who can’t force them to do that one thing they’re terrible at. But they were fortunate that their three playoff matchups included two teams with woeful run defenses (Rams, Commanders), a rain game to nullify their passing disadvantage (Rams), and a Super Bowl against a team whose defense was built around taking away an entire section of the field that they just ignore. The matchups won’t always be that favorable.

No team is matchup agnostic, but the last thing we want to take away from this Super Bowl is the idea that “next time (if there is a next time) the matchup will be better” and we should just “do what we do.” There’s a difference between having an offensive identity and something to hang your hat on and being one-dimensional. We should continue to hone our strengths and play to them, but we also need to spend this off-season patching up weaknesses and evolving schematically. Otherwise, we’re leaving a whole lot up to chance. And if there’s one thing we should all agree on, leaving things up to chance has not served us well in the playoffs.

Go Niners 🏈👍