2025 Draft: Day 3 Preview

Time is of the essence, so let’s get to it.

Round 2, Pick 43: DT, Alfred Collins, Texas

TJ Sanders was my favorite of this cluster of defensive tackles, but he went two picks earlier, and we landed on Collins. Unlike our next two picks, this was not a reach, and his fit in the scheme is clear: he’s going to be a two-gapping nose, and he’s going to be an immovable force against the run. He’s both one of the biggest (6-6, 332 pounds) and strongest players in this draft, with long arms, heavy hands, tremendous power, and better feet than you’d expect from a guy of his gargantuan size. But while the fit and raw big board value make sense, I have issues with picking a defensive tackle this high who brings nothing as a pass rusher.

I know we got gashed on the ground last year. I know we’ve missed DJ Jones in that department, and Arik Armstead after him. We needed a guy like this–a big, powerful nose who could actually command a double team, keep our linebackers clean, and prevent the wide nine from springing gaping holes on the interior. This is why we went with Collins. But is Collins’ limited pass rush upside really so much greater than someone like Jamaree Caldwell’s (pick 86)? Is his superior size and strength in the run game worth enough to give up the greater pass rush upside of someone like Darius Alexander (pick 65)? 

If he can put it all together, he’s one of the higher upside players at the position because of his frame, strength, and grip-and-rip/ragdoll potential. But he has one year of good college production (against the run), is not particularly explosive, and has shown zero pass rush moves save for a sporadic long-arm move. Perhaps he can put it all together and grow into a dangerous pass rusher, but his best comp feels like Javon Kinlaw without the injury concerns. That’s not nothing, but it’s a high slot to draft a run game specialist. 

Round 3, Pick 75: LB, Nick Martin, Oklahoma State

As we’ve talked about before, the Niners very much have a type at linebacker, and–in many ways–Martin fits that type. He’s undersized (5-11, 221 lbs.), looks more like a jacked-up safety than a linebacker, and is a speedy missile to the ball, with the chase speed on tape to match his 4.53 forty and 38” vertical. His pure tackling production was off the charts as a sophomore, racking up stops at a historic rate despite missing quite a few tackles due to pursuit angles and overaggressiveness, but his junior year was cut short by a season-ending knee injury. There’s lots of potential there, but a few notable roadblocks that go against how we usually pick our linebackers.

First off, Martin’s instincts and vision are just okay. Some of that can be attributed to limited snaps and playing out of position as a Mike linebacker in a 3-3-5 stack defense. As a Will behind a four-man front, those keys and reads could improve quickly. And they’ll have to for him to see the field because he needs to see, react, and clean up his angles to make up for his serious lack of size and take-on skills.  

Secondly–and more surprisingly–he’s not particularly good in coverage. The athleticism’s there, but he doesn’t seem to know where to look or what to look for as he drops. That will be a serious problem if it doesn’t get cleaned up in our defense. 

The Niners certainly liked Martin’s locker room makeup. He was described by Okie State teammate Ollie Gordon as “the most caring guy ever” and acted almost like a player-coach after going down to injury last season. But his limited size, necessary development, and injury history seem to point to someone who could have been drafted at least a round later. The absolute highest that I saw him graded was in the fourth round, with other outlets slotting him as far down as the sixth. This was a reach. And while our linebacker scouting and development has earned the benefit of the doubt, you can’t help but wonder what kind of value we left on the board taking Martin this high.

Round 3, Pick 100: CB, Upton Stout, Western Kentucky

As I’ve mentioned before, one of the benefits of needing a nickel corner is that you can typically get a decent one later in the draft. Well, at 5-8 and 181 pounds, Stout is fully a nickel, but we just spent a third-round pick on him. That’s not too high for a great nickel. Cooper DeJean was worth a second-rounder last year. Same with safety/nickel Brian Branch the year before. But those were proven high-impact players with at least the chance of lining up at a more premium position. Stout’s size–or lack thereof–likely makes him a nickel only, and while he’s got intriguing playmaker chops (six picks, two pick sixes, and a 30 yards/pick average over the past three years), he doesn’t have nearly the pedigree of those other two guys.

Still, Stout is absolutely our type. While his size threatens the low end of our playable threshold, he’s about the same build as K’Waun Williams, and he is incredibly feisty. His top-end speed might not be “carry vertical” good, but it’s good enough for everything else, and he’s got great quickness, movement skills, and closes fast on the ball. He played multiple years outside before bouncing inside to the slot, so he won’t be out of place if he’s sent out wide to follow a motioning receiver, and–in the slot–he’s an asset in both man and zone. If he were bigger, he’d be a high pick, but the size is an issue. He’s a fighter and plays bigger than his size, but his build can show up at the catch point against bigger receivers and make him more of a drag-down tackler on bigger ballcarriers. Initially, I wasn’t pleased that the Niners spent a top 100 pick on a pure nickel, but after looking him over more closely, Stout is another good fit for our system. But–like Martin–he felt a smidge early. Most outlets had him as a 4th-5th rounder.

TAKEAWAYS

The Niners have their draft board, and they follow it. That’s what you want them to do. Sometimes that pays off in a big way (Renardo Green, taken 44 spots before his consensus big board ranking) and sometimes it doesn’t (Tyrion Davis-Price, taken 178(!) spots before his big board ranking). It’s not lost on me that Nick Martin, who was drafted 95 slots ahead of his big board ranking, is being brought in to replace Dre Greenlaw, who was drafted 97 slots ahead of his big board ranking. For the record, Fred Warner was drafted 46 spots “early.” That is to say, not all reaches are created equal, and while we can (rightfully) complain about lost marginal value, we won’t know until the season is well underway which were the good moves versus the bad. 

Two more things before we go into potential targets and positions of need for the last day of the draft. First off, we spent our four picks filling our four biggest positions of need. That’s always the dream, but it isn’t always a realistic possibility. And whether or not we reached on players to fill those needs, doing so lets us approach the last four rounds (and our last seven picks) with a lean towards pure value over need. That’s a good place to be. 

Lastly, there may be a shift coming in our defensive scheme. Nothing groundbreaking or earth-shattering, but our first four picks have leaned heavily on “big, long, and powerful defensive linemen” and smaller, more versatile players on the back seven. Stout is a nickel, but he has played both safety and outside corner. While Martin has the physical profile and speed that more closely resemble a safety than a corner, and one of his greatest strengths–he’s an excellent blitzer–feels out of place in our long run of four-man rushes and linebackers dropping into coverage. Are we putting a greater emphasis on size on the front four to free up a new level of versatility on the back end? That would help justify the Mykel pick, but–more clearly–the rush to grab Collins in the second. Perhaps I’m overanalyzing things, but I’m excited to see what tweaks Saleh will unveil come the 2025 season. 

DAY 3 TARGETS

First off, there are a few just pure value picks worth mentioning. DT Joshua Farmer, DE Bradyn Swinson, and RB Dylan Sampson were all expected to be long off the board by now. Any of them could be value adds in the fourth. 

It would be nice to finally wrangle The Ever Elusive Offensive Tackle of the Future. At 99, Charles Grant went one pick before us to the Raiders, but Chase Lundt, Logan Brown, and–if we’re feeling optimistic and very patient–Cameron Williams are all still on the table. 

Elsewhere on the offensive line, I’m a big Marcus Mbow fan. I don’t know where he winds up, but he’s a great mover and feels like an excellent scheme fit. Jonah Monheim is a nice interior athlete as well, while Jackson Slater is a bit more raw but packs a punch.

We seem to have run into a bit of a value spot on sliding wide receivers, with names like Elic Ayomanor and Tez Johnson still on the board. I’d also like to point out Jalen Royals of Utah State, a player I thought would go in the second round. He’s got smooth athleticism, good strength, and a natural affinity for zone beating and YAC yards. In the later rounds, Nick Nash could become a bigger possession slot if we’re looking for that. If we want a more dynamic athlete, Ricky White III of UNLV has an intriguing blend of receiving savvy and open-field running ability. 

Running back is coming–probably sooner rather than later–and there are a ton of guys on the board who fit our scheme. Sampson is the highest rated, but Brashard Smith’s two-way ability and speed are intriguing. The same could be said of Bhayshul Tuten. While Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Marcus Yarns are more late-round adds with stretch game homerun potential. If we’re looking for more of the inside dirty yardage, Devin Neal or Jordan James could fit the bill.

While we missed out on the meat of the tight end class, there are still some later-round gems to be found if we feel the need. Jalin Conyers gives us a bit of the developmental versatility and receiving upside we passed up when we passed on Warren, while Ben Yurosek is a nice two-way player who could be had at value, even if the upside is less sexy.

And lastly, I still want more DTs and DEs. The need is plentiful. Finding at least one more DT with more pass rush juice to pair beside Collins seems like a must, whether that’s Farmer, Aeneas Peebles, or Elijah Roberts. Alternatively, if we’re really trying to get beefy along the DL, we could go with a bigger body with a nice first step like CJ West or the more developmental Jordan Phillips. 

On the edge, Swinson has tremendous upside while guys like Kyle Kennard and David Walker look like nice speed rushers. Jah Joyner is another long-armed potential play if we’re looking for a multi-year development project. And smaller school hustlers Ahmed Hassanien and Elijah Ponder both have intrigue in the later rounds. 

Go Niners 🏈👍